This document discusses participatory scenario planning (PSP) as an innovative community-based adaptation model used in Kenya. PSP brings together local and scientific knowledge to assess climate risks and develop climate-resilient livelihood plans. By engaging communities, civil society groups, and the government, PSP helps vulnerable groups access and understand seasonal climate forecasts to anticipate risks and identify opportunities. The approach has been successful in building capacity, influencing national policies, and integrating climate adaptation into development plans and programs in Kenya. Key factors in its progress include collaborative advocacy, capacity building, demonstrating results, and aligning with government priorities.

1. Kenya Case
Study: Advocacy
on Participatory
Scenario Planning
(PSP)
www.careclimatechange.org/adaptation-initiatives/alp

2. Adaptation Learning Programme (ALP)
• Goal: Increase capacity of
vulnerable households to adapt
to climate variability and
change.
 Using innovative approaches
for community-based
adaptation (CBA).
 Promoting good practice and
integration of CBA
approaches in government
policies and planning
processes.
 Strengthening voice of local
communities and civil society
organisations in decision-
making on adaptation.
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3. Adaptation in Kenya
• Generally a good understanding of climate change issues (adaptation as well as
mitigation)
• Limited understanding of what adaptation would look like
• Challenges in accessing resources because of this
• Limited capacity to undertake climate risk assessments
• Little confidence to make decisions
• Initial work on integration of climate information into planning (not just plans) and
budgets
• Began from the familiar – CBA (and general good development principles)- participatory,
inclusive, community led, building on local knowledge, strengthening existing processes
and structures
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4. What is Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP)?
• In 2011, ALP formulated PSP as an innovative CBA model.
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Purpose: Multi-stakeholder platform for accessing
seasonal climate forecasts and ‘translating’ them to
relate to local knowledge, experience, livelihoods
and development.
• Objectives:
Combinesetsofknowledgeand experience - science, technical
expertise and local knowledge
Participatory and inclusive climate risk assessment and
planning for climate-resilient livelihoods and DRR/DRM.
Linking government (including meteorological services), CSOs
and community actors - targeted response and support.

5. Why PSP?
• People were previously not using forecasts – access.
• Climate forecasts have some inherent uncertainty.
 Expressed as probability in seasonal forecasts – understanding.
• Scenarios help in managing uncertainty though developing options
responding to:
 A range of possible seasonal climate futures,
 Different levels of risk and possible impacts.
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Proactive options for
Spreading risk e.g. diversification,
Maximising potential opportunities.
Forward-looking, anticipatory and
flexible decision making and
planning.
Explore hazards and disaster risks for:
 Contingency planning
 Monitoring for early warning
Local innovation driven by new
weather and climate, and
impacts
Scenarios
encourage:

6. Progress so far
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• Capacity building of communities as well as CSOs and
government at local and national levels – Malawi and Ethiopia
• Uptake by the Kenya Meteorological Department
• Uptake by the Agriculture Sector Development Support
Programme (ASDSP)
• Inclusion in plans of departments and programmes –
livestock, water, national drought management authority
(NDMA),
• Influenced the national environment management authority
(NEMA), the Adaptation Fund NIE; the NAP and the medium
term development plan (MTP)
• Plans for inclusion into regional plans and programmes, such
as COMESA

7. What worked?
• Having a clear message- CBA is our ‘fish and chips’; Starting from the known
and aligning proposals to government plans
• Combining advocacy and capacity building + hardware and software and
working at different levels- community, county, national, with linkages to
regional (AMCEN, COMESA) and the international
• Collaborative approach and targeting several ministries- planning and
environment; and influencing plans and policies- NAP, NIE, MTP, CIDP
• Using innovative approaches such as the learning route to strengthen
capacity https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSA6P021SaY;
https://www.facebook.com/learningfromclimatechangeadaptationinasals
• Being ‘ready’ when opportunity arises – transition into devolved system of
governance and having something tangible to demonstrate- PSPs, CFS
• Having ‘evidence’ - results, facts, figures, costs
• Building the capacity of others (community, CSO, government) and having
these as collaborators and partners
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8. Thank You!
For More Information...
Adaptation Learning Programme (ALP):
www.careclimatechange.org/adaptation-initiatives/alp
Joto Afrika Special Issue 12 on Climate communication for adaptation:
http://www.alin.net/Joto%20Afrika
PSP brief: http://www.careclimatechange.org/files/adaptation/ALP_PSP_Brief.pdf
PSP Case study – Climate for Development: http://c4d.ca/wp-
content/uploads/2013/03/2013-CaseStudy-CARE-Kenya.pdf.
Building resilience to climate change and enhancing food security in north eastern Kenya:
http://www.careclimatechange.org/files/stories/ALP_Kenya_Noor_Aug2012_final.pdf
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