CBO regularly publishes economic projections that are consistent with current law—providing a basis for its estimates of federal revenues, outlays, deficits, and debt. A key element in CBO’s projections is its forecast of potential (maximum sustainable) output, which is based mainly on estimates of the potential labor force, the flow of services from the capital stock, and potential total factor productivity in the nonfarm business sector.
This presentation describes CBO’s most recent 10-year potential output projections. It also discusses possible underlying causes for the slowdown of growth in total factor productivity.
Presentation by Robert Shackleton, an analyst in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the NABE Foundation’s 15th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.
Presentation by Robert Shackleton, an analyst in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the NABE Foundation’s 18th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.
CBO supports the Congressional budget process by providing the Congress with objective, nonpartisan, and timely analyses of legislative proposals and of budgetary and economic issues. From a macroeconomic perspective, CBO produces work in two areas. First, it provides baseline economic forecasts over 10- and 30-year projection windows. Second, it analyzes the short-term and longer-term effects on the overall economy of some proposed changes in federal tax and spending policies. This presentation describes that work and provides recent examples of forecasts and analysis.
Since 2007, federal debt held by the public has more than doubled in relation to the size of the economy, and it will keep growing significantly if the large annual budget deficits projected under current law come to pass. The Congress faces an array of policy choices as it confronts the challenges posed by such large and growing debt.
CBO uses several models to analyze the effects of fiscal policy. In CBO’s view, changes in fiscal policy affect the economy in both the short and long term:
Short-term effects are driven by changes in the demand for goods and services (such as consumption and investment) and changes in supply-side factors (such as growth in productivity and the supply of labor), as well as by the interactions between them.
Long-term effects are primarily driven by changes in supply-side factors such as national saving, productivity, and people’s incentives to work, save, and invest.
The life-cycle growth model (also called an overlapping-generations, or OLG, model) is one model that CBO uses to estimate the long-term effects of changes in fiscal policy. CBO uses the model to analyze the effects of fiscal policy on the following:
People’s incentives to work and save; the distribution of income, wealth, consumption, and taxes across households; and
the well-being of different generations of households.
The life-cycle growth model is one model that CBO uses to estimate the long-term effects of changes in fiscal policy. For example, the model can analyze the effects of changes to the Social Security system.
This presentation provides an overview of the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent budget and economic projections, which were published on August 21. In those projections, the federal budget deficit is nearly $1 trillion in 2019 and averages $1.2 trillion each year between 2020 and 2029. Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 95 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2029.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019, supporting strong labor market conditions that feature low unemployment and rising wages. Economic growth is projected to slow to an average of 1.8 percent through 2029, which is less than the long-term historical average. That slowdown occurs primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Presentation by Robert Shackleton, an analyst in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the NABE Foundation’s 18th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.
CBO supports the Congressional budget process by providing the Congress with objective, nonpartisan, and timely analyses of legislative proposals and of budgetary and economic issues. From a macroeconomic perspective, CBO produces work in two areas. First, it provides baseline economic forecasts over 10- and 30-year projection windows. Second, it analyzes the short-term and longer-term effects on the overall economy of some proposed changes in federal tax and spending policies. This presentation describes that work and provides recent examples of forecasts and analysis.
Since 2007, federal debt held by the public has more than doubled in relation to the size of the economy, and it will keep growing significantly if the large annual budget deficits projected under current law come to pass. The Congress faces an array of policy choices as it confronts the challenges posed by such large and growing debt.
CBO uses several models to analyze the effects of fiscal policy. In CBO’s view, changes in fiscal policy affect the economy in both the short and long term:
Short-term effects are driven by changes in the demand for goods and services (such as consumption and investment) and changes in supply-side factors (such as growth in productivity and the supply of labor), as well as by the interactions between them.
Long-term effects are primarily driven by changes in supply-side factors such as national saving, productivity, and people’s incentives to work, save, and invest.
The life-cycle growth model (also called an overlapping-generations, or OLG, model) is one model that CBO uses to estimate the long-term effects of changes in fiscal policy. CBO uses the model to analyze the effects of fiscal policy on the following:
People’s incentives to work and save; the distribution of income, wealth, consumption, and taxes across households; and
the well-being of different generations of households.
The life-cycle growth model is one model that CBO uses to estimate the long-term effects of changes in fiscal policy. For example, the model can analyze the effects of changes to the Social Security system.
This presentation provides an overview of the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent budget and economic projections, which were published on August 21. In those projections, the federal budget deficit is nearly $1 trillion in 2019 and averages $1.2 trillion each year between 2020 and 2029. Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 95 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2029.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019, supporting strong labor market conditions that feature low unemployment and rising wages. Economic growth is projected to slow to an average of 1.8 percent through 2029, which is less than the long-term historical average. That slowdown occurs primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, and Teri Gullo, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, to Congressional Staff.
CBO provides formal, written estimates of the cost of virtually every bill approved by Congressional committees to show how the bill would affect spending or revenues over the next 5 or 10 years, depending on the type of spending involved. In May, the Congress adopted a concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2016 that requires CBO, to the greatest extent practicable, to incorporate macroeconomic effects into its 10-year cost estimates for major legislation that Congressional committees approve. Such estimates must also include, when practicable, a qualitative assessment of the budgetary effects for the following 20 years. Incorporating such macroeconomic feedback into cost estimates is often called dynamic scoring. This presentation describes how CBO will prepare such estimates.
Across the OECD, GDP per capita is converging. In contrast, regional disparities – or differences in GDP per capita across jurisdictions – are rising, mainly as a result of widening productivity differences. Fiscal decentralisation could help reduce them again.
Economic and Government Policies - United states - June 2016paul young cpa, cga
This presentation discusses both economic as well as government policies for USA (United States). The focus will be on the following areas:
1. Debt to GDP
2. Budget deficits
3. Trade
4. Retail Sales
5. Income inequality
6. Banking Sector
7. Taxation
8. Debt Holders
9. Nearshoring
10. housing
11. Household debt
Presentation by Mario Solis-Garcia at the OECD Workshop on “Joint Learning for an OECD Trust Strategy” on 14 October 2013. Mr. Solis-Garcia discusses why trust matters and uses a simple economic model to see how government trust influences environment, government, households and timing.
Presentation by Robert Shackleton, an analyst in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the NABE Foundation 17th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.
CBO regularly publishes economic projections that are consistent with current law—providing a basis for its estimates of federal revenues, outlays, deficits, and debt. A key element in CBO’s projections is its forecast of potential (maximum sustainable) output, which is based mainly on estimates of the potential labor force, the flow of services from the capital stock, and potential total factor productivity in the nonfarm business sector.
This presentation describes CBO’s most recent 10-year projections of potential output. It also discusses possible underlying causes for the slowdown of growth in total factor productivity.
http://pwc.to/1lN91cC
Comme tous les mois, l’équipe d’économistes de PwC publie une note sur la situation macro-économique mondiale. Ce mois-ci, focus sur l’accroissement des inégalités dans les pays matures ; les incertitudes concernant la croissance chinoise ; et les prévisions de croissance pour la Grande-Bretagne.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, CBO’s Assistant Director for Macroeconomic Analysis, and Teri Gullo, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, to Congressional Staff.
CBO provides formal, written estimates of the cost of virtually every bill approved by Congressional committees to show how the bill would affect spending or revenues over the next 5 or 10 years, depending on the type of spending involved. In May, the Congress adopted a concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2016 that requires CBO, to the greatest extent practicable, to incorporate macroeconomic effects into its 10-year cost estimates for major legislation that Congressional committees approve. Such estimates must also include, when practicable, a qualitative assessment of the budgetary effects for the following 20 years. Incorporating such macroeconomic feedback into cost estimates is often called dynamic scoring. This presentation describes how CBO will prepare such estimates.
Across the OECD, GDP per capita is converging. In contrast, regional disparities – or differences in GDP per capita across jurisdictions – are rising, mainly as a result of widening productivity differences. Fiscal decentralisation could help reduce them again.
Economic and Government Policies - United states - June 2016paul young cpa, cga
This presentation discusses both economic as well as government policies for USA (United States). The focus will be on the following areas:
1. Debt to GDP
2. Budget deficits
3. Trade
4. Retail Sales
5. Income inequality
6. Banking Sector
7. Taxation
8. Debt Holders
9. Nearshoring
10. housing
11. Household debt
Presentation by Mario Solis-Garcia at the OECD Workshop on “Joint Learning for an OECD Trust Strategy” on 14 October 2013. Mr. Solis-Garcia discusses why trust matters and uses a simple economic model to see how government trust influences environment, government, households and timing.
Presentation by Robert Shackleton, an analyst in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the NABE Foundation 17th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.
CBO regularly publishes economic projections that are consistent with current law—providing a basis for its estimates of federal revenues, outlays, deficits, and debt. A key element in CBO’s projections is its forecast of potential (maximum sustainable) output, which is based mainly on estimates of the potential labor force, the flow of services from the capital stock, and potential total factor productivity in the nonfarm business sector.
This presentation describes CBO’s most recent 10-year projections of potential output. It also discusses possible underlying causes for the slowdown of growth in total factor productivity.
http://pwc.to/1lN91cC
Comme tous les mois, l’équipe d’économistes de PwC publie une note sur la situation macro-économique mondiale. Ce mois-ci, focus sur l’accroissement des inégalités dans les pays matures ; les incertitudes concernant la croissance chinoise ; et les prévisions de croissance pour la Grande-Bretagne.
4th Qtr Year End 2011 Economic Review Feb 15 [Autosaved] [Autosaved]Gary Crosbie
2011 4th Qtr Economic Review
Economic Summary
Fed Policy
Bus Investment
Other Economic Indicators
Employment Analytics
“Falling Knife -1- Employment vs Skils”
“Falling Knife -2- The Great In-equality of Wages”
Thought Experiment
Market Forecast
Picks
Every year PSMJ does a forecast of the various architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) markets. This year, we present PSMJ’s A/E/C Market Outlook: How do the A/E/C Markets Look in 2016 and Beyond? This report covers A/E/C industry and market trends for 2015 and 2016.
We begin by looking at trends in the overall economy–especially those trend that affect A/E/C firms. Next, we detail what is happening specifically in the A/E/C industry right now.
Then we present our outlook for next year and beyond—what we think is going to happen in the various market sectors. We look at which markets are up and which markets are down.
And finally, we conclude with recommendations on what A/E/C firms should to do to be successful in 2016 and beyond.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
Skirting the Abyss: From Economic Downturn to Financial Crisis to Long-term M...Llinlithgow Associates
We came right up to the edge of the economic abyss after a year of an accelerating economic downturn and have managed to avoid it but are not out of the woods yet. The risks of a double-dip are growing but the likelihood of a weak recovery and poor job creation is high. A key problem is and was the financial crisis and credit market collapse which has created major lingering problems that will be with us for years. Beyond that a two-decade over-accumulation of debt, drastic declines in Savings and under-Investment have created long-term problems for getting back to sustainable long-term growth. Here we survey the current state of the economy, wade thru the details of the Financial crisis, especially the role of Synthetic Structured Debt and the business performance of the Finance Industry. Then we roll forward to examine the long-term damages created, how we need reduce private debt and what our prospects for reduced long-term growth are. Or, given the decisions to invest in our future and address broader policy problems, how we can return to a path of longer-term high growth and prosperity.
As current growth rates reach a new low, competition for the future is on the...SimCorp
As growth rates came to a standstill in 2015, we took stock of expectations for the future. Surveying firms worldwide, we discovered them to be optimistic about long-term prospects, and found the pursuit of future profits gathering pace.
El avance tecnológico es una de las más importantes fuentes de crecimiento a largo plazo. Las tasas y los patrones de crecimiento varían considerablemente entre países y las diferencias en capacidades tecnológicas tienen un papel fundamental.
Pese a las dificultades que pueda entrañar la definición de alta tecnología, sí que es posible sintetizar
ciertos comportamientos propios de estas empresas, y de los mercados en los que operan, que condicionan su actividad.
Inicialmente parece necesario mencionar las condiciones medioambientales propias de los sectores de
alta tecnología que se resumen en la existencia de
niveles de incertidumbre muy elevados asociados a
diversos factores: 1) la entrada y salida constante
de competidores que suele producirse en estos
mercados, los cuales pueden proceder de los sectores más variados (McGrath, 1995); 2) la aparición
de nuevos mercados o la transformación radical de
los preexistentes a medida que las tecnología surgen y evolucionan (Shanklin y Ryans, 1987); 3) la
inseguridad acerca de cuáles serán las aplicaciones
comerciales más rentables de las nuevas tecnologías
(Macinnis y Heslop, 1990)
la importancia y la necesidad de la incorporación de la orientación al mercado como una cultura de gestión del negocio en las empresas de alta tecnología. La orientación al mercado entendemos que ejerce una influencia positiva sobre todas las actividades de la empresa y, en concreto, sobre las actividades de innovación. Así, los resultados obtenidos evidencian que las empresas más orientadas al mercado innovan mejor y obtienen mejores resultados en los productos que comercializan. Desde esta perspectiva, y dado el carácter estratégico de la innovación en los mercados de alta tecnología, es necesario que desde la dirección se asuma la coexistencia entre la orientación tecnológica, a veces presente en exceso, y la orientación al mercado.
Un producto de alta tecnología (High Tech, en inglés) es un objeto complejo, que responde a
necesidades de las personas y se obtiene a partir de tecnologías que están cambiando
constantemente. Las empresas que asumen su producción son aquellas de carácter altamente
competitivo y que disponen de una sólida base científico-tecnológica (Santos, 1995, p.2).
En otras palabras, son productos que resultan de la aplicación del estado más avanzado de
desarrollo en términos de tecnología, o sencillamente, la tecnología más avanzada disponible
en el momento.
Otra característica importante de los productos de alta tecnología, nos dicen Hills y Sarin
(2003), es que funcionan como parte de un amplio sistema de productos, más que como
productos separados (p.e impresora, escáner, software, servidor y red). De ahí que la
disponibilidad de productos complementarios y la compatibilidad con otros productos en un
sistema es crítico para el éxito o fracaso de nuevas tecnologías (p. 13).
Con los productos de alta tecnología, nos amplían Keegan y Green (2009), se usan estrategias
de mercadeo de posicionamiento
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In the President’s 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion, including veterans' benefits. That amount represents an increase of 134 percent since 1999 after removing the effects of inflation.
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Up the Ratios is a non-profit organization dedicated to bridging the gap in STEM education for underprivileged students by providing free, high-quality learning opportunities in robotics and other STEM fields. Our mission is to empower the next generation of innovators, thinkers, and problem-solvers by offering a range of educational programs that foster curiosity, creativity, and critical thinking.
At Up the Ratios, we believe that every student, regardless of their socio-economic background, should have access to the tools and knowledge needed to succeed in today's technology-driven world. To achieve this, we host a variety of free classes, workshops, summer camps, and live lectures tailored to students from underserved communities. Our programs are designed to be engaging and hands-on, allowing students to explore the exciting world of robotics and STEM through practical, real-world applications.
Our free classes cover fundamental concepts in robotics, coding, and engineering, providing students with a strong foundation in these critical areas. Through our interactive workshops, students can dive deeper into specific topics, working on projects that challenge them to apply what they've learned and think creatively. Our summer camps offer an immersive experience where students can collaborate on larger projects, develop their teamwork skills, and gain confidence in their abilities.
In addition to our local programs, Up the Ratios is committed to making a global impact. We take donations of new and gently used robotics parts, which we then distribute to students and educational institutions in other countries. These donations help ensure that young learners worldwide have the resources they need to explore and excel in STEM fields. By supporting education in this way, we aim to nurture a global community of future leaders and innovators.
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Thumbnail picture is by MediaZona, you may read their report on anti-war arson attacks in Russia here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/13/burn-map
Links:
Autonomous Action
http://Avtonom.org
Anarchist Black Cross Moscow
http://Avtonom.org/abc
Solidarity Zone
https://t.me/solidarity_zone
Memorial
https://memopzk.org/, https://t.me/pzk_memorial
OVD-Info
https://en.ovdinfo.org/antiwar-ovd-info-guide
RosUznik
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Uznik Online
http://uznikonline.tilda.ws/
Russian Reader
https://therussianreader.com/
ABC Irkutsk
https://abc38.noblogs.org/
Send mail to prisoners from abroad:
http://Prisonmail.online
YouTube: https://youtu.be/c5nSOdU48O8
Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/libertarianlifecoach/episodes/Russian-anarchist-and-anti-war-movement-in-the-third-year-of-full-scale-war-e2k8ai4
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- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
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Canadian Immigration Tracker March 2024 - Key SlidesAndrew Griffith
Highlights
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Slide 3 has the overall numbers and change.
Many ways to support street children.pptxSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
1. Congressional Budget Office
NABE Foundation, 15th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar
Washington, D.C.
July 17, 2018
Robert Shackleton
Macroeconomic Analysis Division
Productivity and Growth in
CBO’s Forecasts
2. 1
CBO
What is CBO, and why does it produce
an economic forecast?
How does CBO prepare its economic
forecast?
And how does CBO project growth in
productivity?
3. 2
CBO
The forecast is used primarily as an input to CBO’s 10-year federal
budget projections and analyses of legislative proposals.
It is a current-law forecast:
It assumes that legislation will not change, but changes in policy
built into current legislation will occur.
For example, recent tax legislation calls for the expiration of certain
provisions within the next 10 years.
CBO’s current forecast projects economic responses to the
expiration of those provisions.
The Purpose of CBO’s Economic Forecast
4. 3
CBO
CBO’s approach involves projections of:
Potential (maximum sustainable) output in a neoclassical
growth framework, and
Actual output in a standard macroeconometric model.
The estimate of potential output is mainly based on estimates of:
The potential labor force,
The flow of services from the capital stock, and
Potential total factor productivity in the nonfarm business sector.
CBO’s Approach to Forecasting
5. 4
CBO
GDP = gross domestic product. Real potential GDP is adjusted for inflation.
Average Growth in Real Potential GDP
7. 6
CBO
Vertical bars indicate the duration of recessions.
Total Factor Productivity in Nonfarm Business
Since 2000
8. 7
CBO
The slowdown began around 2005, before the recession and financial
crisis.
It is widespread among industries and international in scope.
Five areas of inquiry might shed light on the slowdown:
Measurement issues
Growth feedbacks
Demographic effects
Structural issues
Long-term innovation
Why Has Growth in Total Factor Productivity
Slowed?
9. 8
CBO
Mismeasurement of real (inflation-adjusted) inputs and outputs is
persistent.
However, measurement issues can account for only a small portion of
the slowdown in total factor productivity growth:
Mismeasurement does not appear to be worse than it was in the
past.
Free products no longer measured in output have little value
compared with “missing” growth in total factor productivity (for
example, photography).
Measurement errors related to international supply chains are
thought to explain less than 0.1 percentage point of the growth in
total factor productivity per year.
The Slowdown of Growth in Total Factor
Productivity: Measurement Issues
10. 9
CBO
Growth in the labor supply has slowed dramatically.
Aggregate demand recovered slowly in the aftermath of the recession.
Both developments lead to relatively modest demand for capital
investment.
The net result is slower turnover of the capital stock and slower
introduction of new technologies.
However, there is little evidence of a backlog of technology.
The Slowdown of Growth in Total Factor
Productivity: Growth Feedbacks
11. 10
CBO
Highly skilled and well-educated baby boomers are retiring, lowering the
aggregate level of human capital.
However, skilled and experienced workers tend to stay in the labor
force longer, pushing up the average skill level.
Educational attainment has grown more slowly than in previous
generations because it is already at a high level.
However, educational attainment among younger cohorts has
continued to improve, especially during the recession and its slow
recovery.
The Slowdown of Growth in Total Factor
Productivity: Demographic Effects
12. 11
CBO
Declining dynamism:
Top firms in many industries continue to have strong productivity
growth, but other firms increasingly lag behind.
Rates of firm entry and exit have decreased.
The share of employment and output accounted for by young firms
(historically a source of productivity growth) has fallen.
No consensus on causes:
Increased barriers to entry?
Less contestable product markets?
Restrictive land-use regulations increasingly raise housing costs and
discourage workers from migrating to denser urban areas, where most
growth in productivity occurs.
The Slowdown of Growth in Total Factor
Productivity: Structural Issues
13. 12
CBO
Pessimistic view:
Innovation from the late 19th century through the early 1970s was
unique and unsustainable.
Acceleration in total factor productivity during the 1990s and 2000s
was a temporary deviation related to information technology.
We are “running out of ideas”: Returns to research are declining,
and new ideas are not as economically significant.
Optimistic view:
The pool of potential innovators and the potential market for
products are now global.
Research tools are greatly improved.
Communication of innovations is much more rapid.
Major advances in technology can be expected—but because they
diffuse slowly, their economic impact will take time.
The Slowdown of Growth in Total Factor
Productivity: A Slowdown in Basic Innovation
14. 13
CBO
Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018
to 2028 (April 2018), www.cbo.gov/publication/53651.
Robert Shackleton, “Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using
CBO’s Forecasting Growth Model, Working Paper 2018-03
(Congressional Budget Office, February 2018),
www.cbo.gov/publication/53558.
Additional Information