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Economic Volatility: How
Covid-19 is Affecting Our
Communities
ECON-100-002
Madison, Miriam, Nicolás, & Zhixuan
What is Economic Growth?
An increase in the aggregate production of goods & services in an economy,
resulting in an increase in real GDP.
Aggregate production → Marginal productivity -> Income → Quality of
life
Typically modeled as a function of growth in physical capital, human capital,
labor force, and technological advancements.
Measured in the value of the goods & services produced, not only quantity.
Defining ‘Growth’ is subjective.
What Causes Economic Growth?
Achieved through…
- Public policy
(Neoliberalism)
- Trade
- Demographic changes
- Industrialization,
technological
advancements, improved
infrastructure.
What is a Recession?
“In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general
decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread
drop in spending (an adverse demand shock.)”
During a recession, businesses lose money because of lower demand, causing them to
lay off workers which contributes to the unemployment rate rising.
An example of a recession is the 2007-2009 ‘Great Recession’ that was caused by
deregulation of the financial industry, and 8.7 million jobs were lost over a period of 2
years.
How Covid-19AffectsEconomies
In the effort to mitigate the spread of Covid-19, many governments around
the world made the decision to “close down” the economy. While these efforts
are necessary in protecting the welfare of people, they have significant
implications on the global economy.
By putting sanctions on business and trade, economies can expect…
- Decrease in marginal productivity.
- Increase in the rate of unemployment.
- Increase in closures of small businesses.
- Increase in delinquency and default rates.
- Decrease in interest rates → Inflation
Scale of Global Economic Downturn(Eurostat,2020)
Takeaways
- OECD countries are
not faring much
better economically
compared to
“developing
countries”.
- Generally, countries
with higher
standards in public
health are doing
better economically.
Economic Decline vs.Rates of DeathDue to Covid-19
(Eurostat,2020)
Takeaways
- Moderately strong
correlation between
GDP loss and number
of deaths associated
with Covid-19.
- No trade-off between
protecting peoples’
health and protecting
the economy. (Hasell,
2020)
Impact in the UnitedStates
The United States (negative):
With the spread of the COVID-19, the global economy is in turmoil, and many economic
indicators in the United States are developing in an unwelcome way. The chart below
shows a snapshot of the overall state of the U.S. economy so far.
1. GDP of the United States decreased by 9.5% in the second quarter on a year-on-year
basis. Since records began in 1947, quarterly GDP has never fallen more than 3%.
2. Employment: more than 50 million people are currently unemployed due to the
permanent closure of businesses, and restrictions continue in many parts of the United
States.
3. Consumer spending: consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of
the U.S. economy, fell 12.6% in April.
The Economic Impactof Covid-19(Nick Routley,2020)
The United States (positive):
With the slow reopening of production facilities, the output of manufacturing
industry tends to be stable.
Impact in the UnitedStates Cont.
Impact in China
China (negative):
1. The economic growth rate announced by the Statistics Bureau in the first quarter was - 6.8%, indicating that
the economy has been hit hard. This data is unprecedented, and consumption fell by 20% in January and
February.
2. Production can't be sustained, as in February, this is the most serious. Now production has begun to
recover, but demand has not recovered, and domestic demand has not recovered. At the same time, overseas
demand is more worrying.
3. Even if the epidemic situation is under control in the second half of the year or next year, the industrial
chain will shift, and the epidemic may accelerate this pace.
4. With the impact of the epidemic, enterprises are heavily in debt, without effective cash flow support,
making enterprises insolvent. In the first quarter of 2020, the unemployment rate is as high as 5.8%.
National survey of unemployment rate from 2018 to March 2020(Wei Chen,
2020)
China(positive):
The epidemic situation has
increased domestic
consumption demand, and
the government has more
support for local
enterprises and the rise of
domestic products.
Impact in China Cont.
Monthlygrowth rate of total retail salesof consumer goodsfrom2019to August
2020
NewJersey : Economic Effects of COVID-19
Along with New York, Connecticut, and other states in the New England area, New Jersey
had/has a strict interpretation of lockdown. This strict interpretation includes that of
curfews, restricted amounts of home necessities available in stores, shorter store hours,
limits on the amount of people in public spaces, etc. The slow reopening of the state has
had negative effects on the economy:
● Small Businesses: approx. 28% of NJ’s Income → economic downturn
● Out of 9 million residents, over 1.5 million claimed unemployment
● Between April and August, employment grew by 12% (The U.S. was 8%)
● Between April and June: economic loss at an annualized rate of 34.6%
● As of October, about 49% of jobs have been regained (The U.S. is 47.9%)
● Rather than an “U” or “L” shape, recovery is a “Nike Swoosh”
● Predicted 5-year regrowth period
Georgia: Economic Effects of COVID-19
Opposing that of more Northern States, Georgia had/has a loose interpretation of
lockdown. During the first two months of the Pandemic, like most states, Georgia was in
a strict lockdown. Many Georgia natives, however, did not take this serious. By May,
clubs/bars were open in Atlanta, there was no curfew, no limit on public spaces, etc. This
fast reopening of the state may be due to:
● Inability for the economy to flourish
● Increasing rates of unemployment ( 12.6% as of April 2020)
The fast reopening of the state has had positive effects on the economy:
● Unemployment rate is at 6.4% (U.S. is 7%)
● 65% of jobs have been regained
● Predicted 2 year-regrowth period: less small businesses
Economic Crisis/Recovery (State)
https://carsey.unh.edu/COVID-19-Economic-Impact-By-
State#:~:text=In%20every%20state%2C%20lower%20wage,from%2013%25%20to
Federal
- During the covid-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate was at the highest it has been at any
point since World War 2, with the highest being at 14.7%
- Experts believe that the shift to virtual work will change the labor market forever, changing the
way companies are hiring workers which will also impact the unemployment rate.
- “The record-long United States economic expansion came to an end as a result of the COVID-19
pandemic, with forecasts of a deep recession in 2020. The outlook remains highly uncertain, as it
is difficult to gauge the social and economic impact of the pandemic, which will depend on the
success of containing the outbreak and the measures to restart economic activity.”
- “Three stimulus packages were approved by the United States Congress in March to address the
impact on households and businesses. New legislation was also approved in April and June to
improve the effectiveness of the programmes included in the previous three fiscal packages. The
United States Federal Reserve cut interest rates to the zero lower bound, offered unlimited
quantitative easing and deployed old and new policy tools aimed at keeping financial markets
functioning.”
Solution: International
- Follow WHO public health guidelines.
- Implement expansionary policy; i.e increasing the money supplied and
reducing interest rates.
- Increase long-term tax revenue by incentivizing the normalization of the
economy; offering stipends and service vouchers.
With increased tax revenue…
- Provide stimulus checks to unemployed and for loathed members of the
workforce.
- Subsidise research and development of a vaccine.
Solution: United States (Federallevel)
- Follow CDC/WHO Public Health Guidelines
- Federal Approach to COVID
- Focus on Market Trends
- Increase Human Capital → gov. Training programs, state workforces, etc.
- Focus on Long-Term relief :
- Supplement federal relief efforts
- Lower interest rates on loans
- Making job industry accessible
- Prepare for “online economies”
- Post-Pandemic Economy Prep
- Reskilling programs
- Invest Internationally
- Digitalize workplace
Solution: United States (State& local level)
- Follow CDC Public Health Guidelines
- Implement Expansionary Policy
- Support local economies: small business relief, relax regulations to
stimulate local demand, campaign to support community businesses
- State workforce programs
- Keep State Budget Balanced
- Tax Relief
- Infrastructure Investment
Takeaways
- Economic volatility is the result of changes in an economy’s ability to
produce and consume goods & services.
- Covid-19, and pandemics in general, slow down productivity- which
causes periods of economic recession.
While Covid-19 has had negative implications…
- We can learn from existing trends and better address pre existing issues.
- Improve health care coverage and infrastructure.
- Prepare for Post-Pandemic Economy/Interactions
Sources
New financial research center of USTC. “Analysis of the impact of Xinguan epidemic on domestic economy”, 28 July.
2020, http://www.china-cer.com.cn/hongguanjingji/202007286942.html.
Nick Routley. “Charts: The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the U.S. So Far”, 31 July. 2020,
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/economic-impact-of-covid-h1-2020/.
Wei Chen. “Statistics of new urban employment, migrant workers and unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2020”,
17 Apr. 2020, https://m.huaon.com/detail/603497.html.
China Economic Information Network. “‘Double festival’ small and long holidays will stimulate ‘holiday effect’ and is
expected to usher in a wave of ‘consumption rebound’”22 Sept. 2020, https://m.huaon.com/detail/650639.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2020/10/12/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-us-economy-and-financial-
markets/?sh=f52e5b42d206
continued…
Gordon, Jackson. “Georgia’s Economy Continues to Recover from Virus.” The Brunswick News,
https://thebrunswicknews.com/news/local_news/georgias-economy-continues-to-recover-from-
virus/article_8c6f1f77-c83d-58a4-a60a-aa924003dc22.html.
Green, Josh. “Analysis: Georgia Has Country’s ‘Least Exposed’ Economy during Coronavirus Crisis.” Curbed Atlanta, 31
Mar. 2020, https://atlanta.curbed.com/2020/3/31/21201092/coronavirus-atlanta-georgia-economy-jobs-
unemployment-covid-19.
Nick Devlin |. NJ Advance Media for. “Coronavirus Slammed N.J.‘s Economy. See How Hard Your County Was Hit.” Nj, 16
Aug. 2020, https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/08/coronavirus-slammed-njs-economy-see-how-hard-your-
county-was-hit.html.
New Jersey’s Economic Recovery Continues, but at Slowing Pace. https://www.rutgers.edu/news/new-jerseys-
economic-recovery-continues-slowing-pace.
continued…
“COVID-19 Economic Crisis: By State.” Carsey School of Public Policy | UNH, 16 Apr. 2020,
https://carsey.unh.edu/COVID-19-Economic-Impact-By-State.
Lessons from the Past on How to Revive the US Economy after COVID-19 | McKinsey.
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/lessons-from-the-past-on-how-to-
revive-the-us-economy-after-covid-19#
“Protecting State Economies and Jobs During the Coronavirus Crisis.” State Policy Network,
https://spn.org/landing_page/coronavirus-economies/.
“Survey Reveals COVID-19’s Broad Impact, Solutions for Rebuilding Connecticut’s Economy.” CBIA,
https://www.cbia.com/news/media-releases/2020-survey-covid-19-impact-connecticut-economy/.
https://www.cepal.org/en/publications/45984-impact-covid-19-united-states-economy-and-policy-response
continued...
Staff, Investopedia. “Economic Growth Definition.” Investopedia, 26 Oct. 2020,
www.investopedia.com/terms/e/economicgrowth.asp.
Kovanda, Lukas, and Replication-Receiver. “Amid COVID-19, a Solution That Cares for People and
Benefits the Economy: UNDP in Europe and Central Asia.” UNDP, UNDP, 22 July 2020,
www.eurasia.undp.org/content/rbec/en/home/blog/2020/covid19-and-sustainable-
solutions-for-economic-growth.html.
Hasell, Joe. “Which Countries Have Protected Both Health and the Economy in the Pandemic?”
Our World in Data, 1 Sept. 2020, ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy.
“Service Voucher.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 29 July 2019,
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Service_voucher.

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Economic Volatility: How Covid-19 is Affecting Our Communities

  • 1. Economic Volatility: How Covid-19 is Affecting Our Communities ECON-100-002 Madison, Miriam, Nicolás, & Zhixuan
  • 2. What is Economic Growth? An increase in the aggregate production of goods & services in an economy, resulting in an increase in real GDP. Aggregate production → Marginal productivity -> Income → Quality of life Typically modeled as a function of growth in physical capital, human capital, labor force, and technological advancements. Measured in the value of the goods & services produced, not only quantity. Defining ‘Growth’ is subjective.
  • 3. What Causes Economic Growth? Achieved through… - Public policy (Neoliberalism) - Trade - Demographic changes - Industrialization, technological advancements, improved infrastructure.
  • 4. What is a Recession? “In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock.)” During a recession, businesses lose money because of lower demand, causing them to lay off workers which contributes to the unemployment rate rising. An example of a recession is the 2007-2009 ‘Great Recession’ that was caused by deregulation of the financial industry, and 8.7 million jobs were lost over a period of 2 years.
  • 5. How Covid-19AffectsEconomies In the effort to mitigate the spread of Covid-19, many governments around the world made the decision to “close down” the economy. While these efforts are necessary in protecting the welfare of people, they have significant implications on the global economy. By putting sanctions on business and trade, economies can expect… - Decrease in marginal productivity. - Increase in the rate of unemployment. - Increase in closures of small businesses. - Increase in delinquency and default rates. - Decrease in interest rates → Inflation
  • 6. Scale of Global Economic Downturn(Eurostat,2020) Takeaways - OECD countries are not faring much better economically compared to “developing countries”. - Generally, countries with higher standards in public health are doing better economically.
  • 7. Economic Decline vs.Rates of DeathDue to Covid-19 (Eurostat,2020) Takeaways - Moderately strong correlation between GDP loss and number of deaths associated with Covid-19. - No trade-off between protecting peoples’ health and protecting the economy. (Hasell, 2020)
  • 8. Impact in the UnitedStates The United States (negative): With the spread of the COVID-19, the global economy is in turmoil, and many economic indicators in the United States are developing in an unwelcome way. The chart below shows a snapshot of the overall state of the U.S. economy so far. 1. GDP of the United States decreased by 9.5% in the second quarter on a year-on-year basis. Since records began in 1947, quarterly GDP has never fallen more than 3%. 2. Employment: more than 50 million people are currently unemployed due to the permanent closure of businesses, and restrictions continue in many parts of the United States. 3. Consumer spending: consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, fell 12.6% in April.
  • 9. The Economic Impactof Covid-19(Nick Routley,2020)
  • 10. The United States (positive): With the slow reopening of production facilities, the output of manufacturing industry tends to be stable. Impact in the UnitedStates Cont.
  • 11. Impact in China China (negative): 1. The economic growth rate announced by the Statistics Bureau in the first quarter was - 6.8%, indicating that the economy has been hit hard. This data is unprecedented, and consumption fell by 20% in January and February. 2. Production can't be sustained, as in February, this is the most serious. Now production has begun to recover, but demand has not recovered, and domestic demand has not recovered. At the same time, overseas demand is more worrying. 3. Even if the epidemic situation is under control in the second half of the year or next year, the industrial chain will shift, and the epidemic may accelerate this pace. 4. With the impact of the epidemic, enterprises are heavily in debt, without effective cash flow support, making enterprises insolvent. In the first quarter of 2020, the unemployment rate is as high as 5.8%.
  • 12. National survey of unemployment rate from 2018 to March 2020(Wei Chen, 2020)
  • 13. China(positive): The epidemic situation has increased domestic consumption demand, and the government has more support for local enterprises and the rise of domestic products. Impact in China Cont.
  • 14. Monthlygrowth rate of total retail salesof consumer goodsfrom2019to August 2020
  • 15. NewJersey : Economic Effects of COVID-19 Along with New York, Connecticut, and other states in the New England area, New Jersey had/has a strict interpretation of lockdown. This strict interpretation includes that of curfews, restricted amounts of home necessities available in stores, shorter store hours, limits on the amount of people in public spaces, etc. The slow reopening of the state has had negative effects on the economy: ● Small Businesses: approx. 28% of NJ’s Income → economic downturn ● Out of 9 million residents, over 1.5 million claimed unemployment ● Between April and August, employment grew by 12% (The U.S. was 8%) ● Between April and June: economic loss at an annualized rate of 34.6% ● As of October, about 49% of jobs have been regained (The U.S. is 47.9%) ● Rather than an “U” or “L” shape, recovery is a “Nike Swoosh” ● Predicted 5-year regrowth period
  • 16. Georgia: Economic Effects of COVID-19 Opposing that of more Northern States, Georgia had/has a loose interpretation of lockdown. During the first two months of the Pandemic, like most states, Georgia was in a strict lockdown. Many Georgia natives, however, did not take this serious. By May, clubs/bars were open in Atlanta, there was no curfew, no limit on public spaces, etc. This fast reopening of the state may be due to: ● Inability for the economy to flourish ● Increasing rates of unemployment ( 12.6% as of April 2020) The fast reopening of the state has had positive effects on the economy: ● Unemployment rate is at 6.4% (U.S. is 7%) ● 65% of jobs have been regained ● Predicted 2 year-regrowth period: less small businesses
  • 18. Federal - During the covid-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate was at the highest it has been at any point since World War 2, with the highest being at 14.7% - Experts believe that the shift to virtual work will change the labor market forever, changing the way companies are hiring workers which will also impact the unemployment rate. - “The record-long United States economic expansion came to an end as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, with forecasts of a deep recession in 2020. The outlook remains highly uncertain, as it is difficult to gauge the social and economic impact of the pandemic, which will depend on the success of containing the outbreak and the measures to restart economic activity.” - “Three stimulus packages were approved by the United States Congress in March to address the impact on households and businesses. New legislation was also approved in April and June to improve the effectiveness of the programmes included in the previous three fiscal packages. The United States Federal Reserve cut interest rates to the zero lower bound, offered unlimited quantitative easing and deployed old and new policy tools aimed at keeping financial markets functioning.”
  • 19. Solution: International - Follow WHO public health guidelines. - Implement expansionary policy; i.e increasing the money supplied and reducing interest rates. - Increase long-term tax revenue by incentivizing the normalization of the economy; offering stipends and service vouchers. With increased tax revenue… - Provide stimulus checks to unemployed and for loathed members of the workforce. - Subsidise research and development of a vaccine.
  • 20. Solution: United States (Federallevel) - Follow CDC/WHO Public Health Guidelines - Federal Approach to COVID - Focus on Market Trends - Increase Human Capital → gov. Training programs, state workforces, etc. - Focus on Long-Term relief : - Supplement federal relief efforts - Lower interest rates on loans - Making job industry accessible - Prepare for “online economies” - Post-Pandemic Economy Prep - Reskilling programs - Invest Internationally - Digitalize workplace
  • 21. Solution: United States (State& local level) - Follow CDC Public Health Guidelines - Implement Expansionary Policy - Support local economies: small business relief, relax regulations to stimulate local demand, campaign to support community businesses - State workforce programs - Keep State Budget Balanced - Tax Relief - Infrastructure Investment
  • 22. Takeaways - Economic volatility is the result of changes in an economy’s ability to produce and consume goods & services. - Covid-19, and pandemics in general, slow down productivity- which causes periods of economic recession. While Covid-19 has had negative implications… - We can learn from existing trends and better address pre existing issues. - Improve health care coverage and infrastructure. - Prepare for Post-Pandemic Economy/Interactions
  • 23. Sources New financial research center of USTC. “Analysis of the impact of Xinguan epidemic on domestic economy”, 28 July. 2020, http://www.china-cer.com.cn/hongguanjingji/202007286942.html. Nick Routley. “Charts: The Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the U.S. So Far”, 31 July. 2020, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/economic-impact-of-covid-h1-2020/. Wei Chen. “Statistics of new urban employment, migrant workers and unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2020”, 17 Apr. 2020, https://m.huaon.com/detail/603497.html. China Economic Information Network. “‘Double festival’ small and long holidays will stimulate ‘holiday effect’ and is expected to usher in a wave of ‘consumption rebound’”22 Sept. 2020, https://m.huaon.com/detail/650639.html https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2020/10/12/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-us-economy-and-financial- markets/?sh=f52e5b42d206
  • 24. continued… Gordon, Jackson. “Georgia’s Economy Continues to Recover from Virus.” The Brunswick News, https://thebrunswicknews.com/news/local_news/georgias-economy-continues-to-recover-from- virus/article_8c6f1f77-c83d-58a4-a60a-aa924003dc22.html. Green, Josh. “Analysis: Georgia Has Country’s ‘Least Exposed’ Economy during Coronavirus Crisis.” Curbed Atlanta, 31 Mar. 2020, https://atlanta.curbed.com/2020/3/31/21201092/coronavirus-atlanta-georgia-economy-jobs- unemployment-covid-19. Nick Devlin |. NJ Advance Media for. “Coronavirus Slammed N.J.‘s Economy. See How Hard Your County Was Hit.” Nj, 16 Aug. 2020, https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/08/coronavirus-slammed-njs-economy-see-how-hard-your- county-was-hit.html. New Jersey’s Economic Recovery Continues, but at Slowing Pace. https://www.rutgers.edu/news/new-jerseys- economic-recovery-continues-slowing-pace.
  • 25. continued… “COVID-19 Economic Crisis: By State.” Carsey School of Public Policy | UNH, 16 Apr. 2020, https://carsey.unh.edu/COVID-19-Economic-Impact-By-State. Lessons from the Past on How to Revive the US Economy after COVID-19 | McKinsey. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/lessons-from-the-past-on-how-to- revive-the-us-economy-after-covid-19# “Protecting State Economies and Jobs During the Coronavirus Crisis.” State Policy Network, https://spn.org/landing_page/coronavirus-economies/. “Survey Reveals COVID-19’s Broad Impact, Solutions for Rebuilding Connecticut’s Economy.” CBIA, https://www.cbia.com/news/media-releases/2020-survey-covid-19-impact-connecticut-economy/. https://www.cepal.org/en/publications/45984-impact-covid-19-united-states-economy-and-policy-response
  • 26. continued... Staff, Investopedia. “Economic Growth Definition.” Investopedia, 26 Oct. 2020, www.investopedia.com/terms/e/economicgrowth.asp. Kovanda, Lukas, and Replication-Receiver. “Amid COVID-19, a Solution That Cares for People and Benefits the Economy: UNDP in Europe and Central Asia.” UNDP, UNDP, 22 July 2020, www.eurasia.undp.org/content/rbec/en/home/blog/2020/covid19-and-sustainable- solutions-for-economic-growth.html. Hasell, Joe. “Which Countries Have Protected Both Health and the Economy in the Pandemic?” Our World in Data, 1 Sept. 2020, ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy. “Service Voucher.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 29 July 2019, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Service_voucher.