The document summarizes Wall Street predictions for 2012 stock market performance and the actual outcomes. Most predictions were overwhelmingly negative, forecasting lackluster returns due to economic troubles. However, the US stock market returned 16% for the year, outperforming the predictions. The eurozone and European markets also defied predictions by not collapsing and some posting returns over 20%. The summary concludes that predictions are unreliable and investors are better off focusing on long-term strategies rather than trying to time markets based on uncertain forecasts.
Morgan Stanley research raises the probability of Greece exiting the eurozone from 25% to 35% and believes the ramifications could be more serious than anticipated. If Greece exits, contagion may follow countries like Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland. Key policy responses that could limit escalation include more aggressive ECB action, bank recapitalization, a federal deposit guarantee, fiscal union, and the ECB becoming lender of last resort. Morgan Stanley analysts provide views on risks to European banks from funding stresses and credit squeezes. If contagion follows a Greek exit, safe haven assets like Treasuries and gold ETFs may rally.
This document provides a global economic outlook and forecast summary for various countries and regions. It notes that financial markets have positioned for smooth debt relief in Europe and deficit reduction in the US. However, the outlook predicts fiscal tightening and debt tensions will lead to a deeper recession in Europe. In the US, uncertainty around the fiscal cliff and Europe's crisis will weigh on growth through 2012. Inflation is expected to remain subdued. The forecast summary provides projections for real GDP growth, inflation rates, and policy rates in countries/regions through 2014.
The document discusses a worst case "bear" scenario where high government debt levels constrain economic growth over the long term, similar to Japan's "lost decade". Key points:
- Global debt has doubled over the past decade and is at all-time highs as a percentage of GDP.
- A Japanese-style recovery of persistent debt, weak growth, low rates could occur if debt is not reduced.
- The US fiscal situation in particular looks dire, with debt projected to exceed 100% of GDP by 2010.
- Recommendations focus on defensive assets that perform well in risk-averse, low-growth environments.
The document summarizes the IMF's projections for global economic growth in 2013 and 2014 from its January 2013 World Economic Outlook update. It finds that:
1) Global growth is projected to gradually increase in 2013 as factors slowing growth in recent years ease, but the recovery will be more gradual than previously expected.
2) While policy actions have reduced crisis risks in Europe and the US, growth remains weak in Europe and may be weaker than projected, with downside risks remaining significant.
3) Growth is forecast to increase modestly in the US and pick up in emerging markets, but contract further in Japan and remain weak in Europe overall.
The document discusses the interconnectedness of global economies and markets. It notes that problems in countries like China can have worldwide repercussions. It also discusses the ongoing sovereign debt problems in Europe weighing on US stock prices. While the US economy is performing reasonably well, its recovery remains fragile due to uncertainty around Europe's debt situation. The document advocates for international diversification given the declining dominance of the US in global stock market capitalization.
The document provides market snapshots from around the world. Key indices closed mixed in the UK and Europe on Friday, with financial stocks lower. In Asia, markets are trading lower as investors book profits after last week's rally. US markets closed mostly higher on Friday as consumer sentiment improved, though technology stocks ended lower. Commodity prices are also reported.
Morgan Stanley research raises the probability of Greece exiting the eurozone from 25% to 35% and believes the ramifications could be more serious than anticipated. If Greece exits, contagion may follow countries like Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland. Key policy responses that could limit escalation include more aggressive ECB action, bank recapitalization, a federal deposit guarantee, fiscal union, and the ECB becoming lender of last resort. Morgan Stanley analysts provide views on risks to European banks from funding stresses and credit squeezes. If contagion follows a Greek exit, safe haven assets like Treasuries and gold ETFs may rally.
This document provides a global economic outlook and forecast summary for various countries and regions. It notes that financial markets have positioned for smooth debt relief in Europe and deficit reduction in the US. However, the outlook predicts fiscal tightening and debt tensions will lead to a deeper recession in Europe. In the US, uncertainty around the fiscal cliff and Europe's crisis will weigh on growth through 2012. Inflation is expected to remain subdued. The forecast summary provides projections for real GDP growth, inflation rates, and policy rates in countries/regions through 2014.
The document discusses a worst case "bear" scenario where high government debt levels constrain economic growth over the long term, similar to Japan's "lost decade". Key points:
- Global debt has doubled over the past decade and is at all-time highs as a percentage of GDP.
- A Japanese-style recovery of persistent debt, weak growth, low rates could occur if debt is not reduced.
- The US fiscal situation in particular looks dire, with debt projected to exceed 100% of GDP by 2010.
- Recommendations focus on defensive assets that perform well in risk-averse, low-growth environments.
The document summarizes the IMF's projections for global economic growth in 2013 and 2014 from its January 2013 World Economic Outlook update. It finds that:
1) Global growth is projected to gradually increase in 2013 as factors slowing growth in recent years ease, but the recovery will be more gradual than previously expected.
2) While policy actions have reduced crisis risks in Europe and the US, growth remains weak in Europe and may be weaker than projected, with downside risks remaining significant.
3) Growth is forecast to increase modestly in the US and pick up in emerging markets, but contract further in Japan and remain weak in Europe overall.
The document discusses the interconnectedness of global economies and markets. It notes that problems in countries like China can have worldwide repercussions. It also discusses the ongoing sovereign debt problems in Europe weighing on US stock prices. While the US economy is performing reasonably well, its recovery remains fragile due to uncertainty around Europe's debt situation. The document advocates for international diversification given the declining dominance of the US in global stock market capitalization.
The document provides market snapshots from around the world. Key indices closed mixed in the UK and Europe on Friday, with financial stocks lower. In Asia, markets are trading lower as investors book profits after last week's rally. US markets closed mostly higher on Friday as consumer sentiment improved, though technology stocks ended lower. Commodity prices are also reported.
The full report presents a post-crisis world economy still struggling with continued weakening growth of 2.2 per cent in 2012. It projects disappointing global growth of 2.4 per cent in 2013 and 3.2 per cent in 2014 in the face of major uncertainties and downside risks and it also foresees a much slower pace of poverty reduction in many developing countries and narrowing fiscal space for investments in the many critical areas needed for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. The report calls for more forceful and concerted policy action at the global level, identifying fiscal and employment policies, financial market stability, development assistance and green growth as key challenges.
For more information: http://bit.ly/WESP
2000 jetro white paper on international trade and foreign direct investment b...Pim Piepers
The document is a white paper from JETRO (Japan External Trade Organization) on global trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2000. Some key points:
- FDI flows surged in 1998, with outflows rising 36.6% to $648.9 billion and inflows up 38.7% to $643.9 billion, driven mainly by investment between the US and EU countries.
- The US was the largest source of FDI for the 8th year running in 1998, and also the largest recipient of FDI for the 6th consecutive year. Investment between the US and EU more than doubled from 1997 to 1998.
- Foreign investment in Japan also increased substantially in
Previsiones de inversión global publicitaria (Zenith Optimedia) JUL11Retelur Marketing
Global ad expenditure is forecast to return to its pre-recession peak of $471 billion in 2011, matching spending levels in 2008. Growth is expected to be modest at 4.1% in 2011 as some regions see softening while Asia Pacific strengthens. The Middle East is expected to see a sharp decline of 12.1% due to political turmoil. Overall growth is forecast to pick up in 2012 and 2013. The internet remains the fastest growing medium at an average of 14.2% annually through 2013, though television will contribute the most new ad dollars.
The document summarizes that while economic recovery is underway globally, risks have increased due to signs of weakness in the US economy. Key interest rates and bond yields remain low. The Nordic countries are well positioned to benefit from the economic upturn due to fiscal responsibility and current account surpluses, though growth will vary across countries. Sweden has seen a surprisingly strong recovery so far.
UK and European markets fell modestly on Friday due to continued concerns over the European debt crisis and a drop in German factory orders. US markets also closed lower as investors remained wary about the crisis despite a small fall in unemployment. Asian markets are trading lower this morning led by exporters declining on worries about the Eurozone debt situation and a stronger yen.
The Greek election resulted in a victory for the pro-bailout New Democracy party, reducing the risk of Greece exiting the euro. While this eased financial market concerns, major challenges still remain as the new government will have difficulties maintaining austerity targets and enacting reforms. The threat of contagion also persists for other eurozone countries like Spain and Italy, requiring European leaders to take further steps toward fiscal and banking integration.
UK and European markets closed lower due to concerns over European sovereign debt and a decline in commodity prices. Banking stocks fell amid speculation that Germany may not help Greece avoid defaulting and potential ratings downgrades. In the US, markets recovered from early losses as concerns over Europe eased on reports China may buy Italian bonds. Most Asian markets are trading higher today also due to reduced concerns over Europe.
This document provides economic forecasts and outlooks for various countries and regions globally. It includes GDP growth forecasts showing expected declines in the Eurozone in 2012-2013 before a recovery in 2014. Unemployment rates are forecast to rise further in the Eurozone. Inflation is expected to remain subdued. Interest rates are expected to remain low with gradual increases beginning in late 2013.
Key global indices retreated sharply as concerns about the Greek debt crisis intensified after Greece announced a referendum on its bailout deal. In the UK, financial stocks like Barclays and Lloyds Banking Group plunged over 6% on worries about Greece defaulting. In Europe, banks Societe Generale and BNP Paribas fell over 13% due to their exposure to Greek debt. In the US, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs dropped over 5% from fears of a Greek default. Asian markets also declined on concerns that Europe will not resolve its sovereign debt issues, with Japanese exporter stocks like Honda Motor falling.
Global growth prospects have dimmed and risks have escalated. The euro area crisis has entered a new perilous phase, with the euro area economy expected to enter recession in 2012. Growth is also slowing in emerging markets due to weaker external demand. Immediate policy priorities are restoring confidence in the euro area, sustaining growth while implementing fiscal adjustments, and providing liquidity. Other advanced economies must address fiscal imbalances and repair financial systems while sustaining recoveries. Emerging markets need to respond to moderating domestic growth and slowing external demand from advanced economies. Global growth is projected to slow to 3.3% in 2012, a downward revision of 0.7 percentage points from previous forecasts.
The document provides an analysis of the global economic recovery. It notes that while the private sector is recovering, government finances remain fragile. The recovery is uneven across countries and regions. China, India, and other emerging markets are rebounding more quickly than rich nations. However, high government debt and weak consumers continue to pose risks. Overall, the recovery remains uncertain and the outlook is extremely difficult to predict.
ETX Capital -From The Floor is a daily briefing and global market report to k...ETX_Capital
The document provides an overview of key global indices and market snapshots from the UK, Europe, US and Asia. UK and European markets slid sharply due to concerns over Europe's debt crisis and downbeat economic data. In the US, markets slumped as bond yields surged in Europe after Germany failed to meet a bond auction target. Most Asian markets are trading higher despite losses in the US, as China takes measures to support businesses and lending.
This document summarizes the investment philosophy of Credo Capital Plc, an independent wealth management group. It discusses Credo's long-term value-based approach, which focuses on capital preservation, yield, and transaction costs. The document also examines current market volatility and economic concerns, but argues these issues represent short-term "noise" and that focusing on long-term fundamentals is best. It advocates ignoring daily market fluctuations and remaining optimistic about the long-term prospects for equities.
O documento discute uma conferência realizada em Cantanhede sobre a importância da liturgia no Concílio Vaticano II. João Norton e Luís Pereira da Silva falaram sobre como a liturgia esteve no centro das reflexões do concílio e como a arte está ligada à liturgia e à fé. A missa em latim foi criticada por não ser compreendida pelo povo.
The full report presents a post-crisis world economy still struggling with continued weakening growth of 2.2 per cent in 2012. It projects disappointing global growth of 2.4 per cent in 2013 and 3.2 per cent in 2014 in the face of major uncertainties and downside risks and it also foresees a much slower pace of poverty reduction in many developing countries and narrowing fiscal space for investments in the many critical areas needed for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. The report calls for more forceful and concerted policy action at the global level, identifying fiscal and employment policies, financial market stability, development assistance and green growth as key challenges.
For more information: http://bit.ly/WESP
2000 jetro white paper on international trade and foreign direct investment b...Pim Piepers
The document is a white paper from JETRO (Japan External Trade Organization) on global trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2000. Some key points:
- FDI flows surged in 1998, with outflows rising 36.6% to $648.9 billion and inflows up 38.7% to $643.9 billion, driven mainly by investment between the US and EU countries.
- The US was the largest source of FDI for the 8th year running in 1998, and also the largest recipient of FDI for the 6th consecutive year. Investment between the US and EU more than doubled from 1997 to 1998.
- Foreign investment in Japan also increased substantially in
Previsiones de inversión global publicitaria (Zenith Optimedia) JUL11Retelur Marketing
Global ad expenditure is forecast to return to its pre-recession peak of $471 billion in 2011, matching spending levels in 2008. Growth is expected to be modest at 4.1% in 2011 as some regions see softening while Asia Pacific strengthens. The Middle East is expected to see a sharp decline of 12.1% due to political turmoil. Overall growth is forecast to pick up in 2012 and 2013. The internet remains the fastest growing medium at an average of 14.2% annually through 2013, though television will contribute the most new ad dollars.
The document summarizes that while economic recovery is underway globally, risks have increased due to signs of weakness in the US economy. Key interest rates and bond yields remain low. The Nordic countries are well positioned to benefit from the economic upturn due to fiscal responsibility and current account surpluses, though growth will vary across countries. Sweden has seen a surprisingly strong recovery so far.
UK and European markets fell modestly on Friday due to continued concerns over the European debt crisis and a drop in German factory orders. US markets also closed lower as investors remained wary about the crisis despite a small fall in unemployment. Asian markets are trading lower this morning led by exporters declining on worries about the Eurozone debt situation and a stronger yen.
The Greek election resulted in a victory for the pro-bailout New Democracy party, reducing the risk of Greece exiting the euro. While this eased financial market concerns, major challenges still remain as the new government will have difficulties maintaining austerity targets and enacting reforms. The threat of contagion also persists for other eurozone countries like Spain and Italy, requiring European leaders to take further steps toward fiscal and banking integration.
UK and European markets closed lower due to concerns over European sovereign debt and a decline in commodity prices. Banking stocks fell amid speculation that Germany may not help Greece avoid defaulting and potential ratings downgrades. In the US, markets recovered from early losses as concerns over Europe eased on reports China may buy Italian bonds. Most Asian markets are trading higher today also due to reduced concerns over Europe.
This document provides economic forecasts and outlooks for various countries and regions globally. It includes GDP growth forecasts showing expected declines in the Eurozone in 2012-2013 before a recovery in 2014. Unemployment rates are forecast to rise further in the Eurozone. Inflation is expected to remain subdued. Interest rates are expected to remain low with gradual increases beginning in late 2013.
Key global indices retreated sharply as concerns about the Greek debt crisis intensified after Greece announced a referendum on its bailout deal. In the UK, financial stocks like Barclays and Lloyds Banking Group plunged over 6% on worries about Greece defaulting. In Europe, banks Societe Generale and BNP Paribas fell over 13% due to their exposure to Greek debt. In the US, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs dropped over 5% from fears of a Greek default. Asian markets also declined on concerns that Europe will not resolve its sovereign debt issues, with Japanese exporter stocks like Honda Motor falling.
Global growth prospects have dimmed and risks have escalated. The euro area crisis has entered a new perilous phase, with the euro area economy expected to enter recession in 2012. Growth is also slowing in emerging markets due to weaker external demand. Immediate policy priorities are restoring confidence in the euro area, sustaining growth while implementing fiscal adjustments, and providing liquidity. Other advanced economies must address fiscal imbalances and repair financial systems while sustaining recoveries. Emerging markets need to respond to moderating domestic growth and slowing external demand from advanced economies. Global growth is projected to slow to 3.3% in 2012, a downward revision of 0.7 percentage points from previous forecasts.
The document provides an analysis of the global economic recovery. It notes that while the private sector is recovering, government finances remain fragile. The recovery is uneven across countries and regions. China, India, and other emerging markets are rebounding more quickly than rich nations. However, high government debt and weak consumers continue to pose risks. Overall, the recovery remains uncertain and the outlook is extremely difficult to predict.
ETX Capital -From The Floor is a daily briefing and global market report to k...ETX_Capital
The document provides an overview of key global indices and market snapshots from the UK, Europe, US and Asia. UK and European markets slid sharply due to concerns over Europe's debt crisis and downbeat economic data. In the US, markets slumped as bond yields surged in Europe after Germany failed to meet a bond auction target. Most Asian markets are trading higher despite losses in the US, as China takes measures to support businesses and lending.
This document summarizes the investment philosophy of Credo Capital Plc, an independent wealth management group. It discusses Credo's long-term value-based approach, which focuses on capital preservation, yield, and transaction costs. The document also examines current market volatility and economic concerns, but argues these issues represent short-term "noise" and that focusing on long-term fundamentals is best. It advocates ignoring daily market fluctuations and remaining optimistic about the long-term prospects for equities.
O documento discute uma conferência realizada em Cantanhede sobre a importância da liturgia no Concílio Vaticano II. João Norton e Luís Pereira da Silva falaram sobre como a liturgia esteve no centro das reflexões do concílio e como a arte está ligada à liturgia e à fé. A missa em latim foi criticada por não ser compreendida pelo povo.
The document provides information about an upcoming regional meeting in Cairo from March 2-3, 2015 to discuss the Regional Initiative on Sustainable Small-Scale Agriculture for Inclusive Development. The meeting will bring together representatives from focus countries in the Near East and North Africa region to share priorities, identify priority activities for 2015, and agree on FAO support arrangements. Participants will include government and FAO representatives from focus countries and candidate countries, as well as staff from FAO's regional and sub-regional offices and two participants from CIRAD/CIHEAM to discuss terms of reference for a regional study. The expected outcomes are to define priority activities for 2015, agree on candidate countries for the next biennium, endorse arrangements for FAO
This case flyer enables a discussion on the topic of ‘Forced Ranking System’ as propounded by the legendary Jack Welch at GE during late 1980s. Considered as a mixed measure of Performance Management Systems (PMS), the case flyer suggests that a great deal of precaution is essential before implementing any such system. The case flyer revolves around the introduction of forced ranking system as a performance management system at Yahoo! by Marissa Mayer, its new CEO. In coherence with the accompanying article1, the case flyer discusses the repercussions of forced ranking system in an organization and debates if forced ranking system even truly evaluates human resources as it is believed that employee performance does not follow a bell curve. The case flyer finds application in teaching the concept of ‘performance evaluation’ in Organizational Behavior Course.
URL: http://www.etcases.com/forced-ranking-boon-or-bane.html
La Universidad Fermín Toro, Escuela de Relaciones Industriales, donde la profesora Rosmary Mendoza evalúa el trabajo de la alumna María Ana Rodríguez, quien posee la cédula de identidad 23851777.
Joseph Libretti joins Rutgers University as Managing DirectorJoseph Libretti
Rutgers University's Financial Statistics and Risk Management Program has hired Joseph Libretti as Managing Director of Employer Relations and Career Development. The program provides graduates with skills in financial risk management, statistics, and portfolio analysis. It has grown since 2011 and now requires dedicated career support. Mr. Libretti has 30 years of experience in capital markets and will help students with pre- and post-graduation employment. He previously worked as Managing Director of Corporate Advisory at IFS Securities.
sistemas digitales II - Capitulo 12 final-pdf del ing sumoso- UNFV - Jose Bondia
El documento describe diferentes modos de direccionamiento de instrucciones, incluyendo direccionamiento indexado, direccionamiento de registro base e indirecto. También describe direccionamiento indirecto indexado. Explica que los procesadores usan varios modos de direccionamiento y es necesario conocerlos para escribir programas.
Las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación (TIC) han sido instrumentos para aprender y transmitir conocimiento a través de los años. La incorporación de las TIC en la educación puede modificar las prácticas educativas tradicionales al permitir el almacenamiento y acceso de contenido por profesores y estudiantes, así como la búsqueda y selección de contenido relevante. Las TIC también se usan como herramientas de interacción entre estudiantes y contenido para facilitar el aprendizaje, y para que los profesores apoy
Keutamaan shalat berjamaah dan bersegera ke masjidErman Hidayat
Dokumen tersebut membahas keutamaan shalat berjamaah di masjid dibanding shalat sendiri, termasuk mendapatkan pahala 27 kali lipat. Ia juga menjelaskan contoh-contoh perilaku Rasulullah yang senantiasa bergegas pergi ke masjid begitu mendengar adzan, bahkan meninggalkan pekerjaannya. Selain itu, shaf pertama di belakang imam memiliki keutamaan yang besar.
Jamie Radle and Amber Mennemeyer offer professional home cleaning services for $25 per hour, including cleaning all fixtures, surfaces, furniture, appliances, floors, mirrors and glass throughout kitchens, bathrooms, bedrooms, living areas, and dining areas. As sisters, they are honest, reliable, and have great references, with background checks available for customer peace of mind.
90 a approved plots neemrana behror,nh8 2Baburaj Patel
Sky Real Group is presenting a new housing project called Sky Aangan located in Keshwana Industry, Neemrana with residential plots available in sizes ranging from 100 to 200 square yards and priced at Rs. 4500 per square yard. The document lists several reasons to invest in the Neemrana Behror area such as the development of a large global city, SEZ approval, proximity to transportation hubs, and its location along the Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor.
El documento presenta un diagrama que muestra la relación entre los alimentos saludables, los macronutrientes (proteínas, carbohidratos y grasas) y cómo estos contribuyen a mantener un cuerpo saludable.
The portfolio manager provides a summary of market performance in 2012, an outlook for 2013, and commentary on portfolio strategy. Key points include: global markets gained over 10% in 2012 despite concerns over Europe and the US fiscal cliff; volatility is expected to continue in 2013 due to unresolved debt issues; the portfolio is diversified across regions and maintains an appropriate level of risk for clients through its asset allocation model.
2012 forward review - Opportunities & RisksPaul Locke
The document discusses key investment themes and opportunities for 2012 amid ongoing global economic uncertainty. It identifies potential risks from a Chinese hard landing, Middle East instability, and sovereign debt defaults. It also notes opportunities from selective emerging markets, inflation-linked bonds, and covered call strategies. Political events like the US elections and China's leadership transition could significantly impact markets.
This document summarizes the global economic outlook from Swedbank. It notes that global GDP growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013 have been revised downward to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively, due to slowing growth in developed economies and emerging markets. While some countries saw upward revisions to 2012 growth due to strong early year results, growth is expected to weaken further in 2013, especially in the eurozone and US. Potential global growth is now estimated around 3.8%, lower than previous estimates, due to issues like high debt levels, weak financial systems, and insufficient reforms. Downside risks to the outlook are seen as more probable than upside risks.
This document provides an economic outlook and investment outlook for 2012. Some key points:
- The US economy is expected to grow around 2% in 2012, supported by solid business spending and modest consumer spending. Inflation may recede early in the year.
- Stocks are expected to post gains of 8-12% in 2012, supported by mid-to-high single digit earnings growth as sentiment improves to converge with economic data.
- Government and corporate bond yields are expected to rise over the course of the year, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending around 3%. The gap between government and corporate bond yields is expected to narrow.
- Major policy events in Europe, China, and
The document discusses market performance in 2012, noting that despite fears over issues like the European debt crisis, the U.S. stock market gained 16% last year. It was surprised by the magnitude of gains given headwinds. U.S. interest rates also declined contrary to expectations. Most European markets gained in 2012, with some significantly outperforming the U.S. The document provides a report card on economic and market data from 2010-2012, noting improvements in areas like corporate earnings, unemployment, and housing while commodity prices have cooled. Valuation metrics imply stocks remain relatively attractive versus bonds.
Informe credit suisse global investment returns yearbook 2013JavierAlfayate
The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 examines investment returns in a world of historically low interest rates following the global financial crisis. Some key points:
- Bond yields have fallen sharply in developed countries and are near all-time lows, while real bond yields are now negative or very low in many countries.
- Equity returns in developed markets since 2000 have also been disappointing, raising questions about the viability of equities as an asset class.
- Prospective real returns from bonds, cash, and equities are expected to be significantly lower than the high returns investors experienced in the late 20th century. Living with lower returns poses challenges, especially for retiring baby boomers.
-
The document discusses the performance of financial markets in 2012, noting that:
1) The U.S. stock market gained 16% in 2012 despite fears over issues like the European debt crisis and slow growth in China.
2) Bond yields fell unexpectedly in the U.S. and Europe continued to "muddle through" its debt crisis, with many European markets outperforming the U.S.
3) A report card on economic and market indicators shows improvements from 2010-2012, with corporate earnings and housing showing signs of recovery though inflation remained low.
Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013Credit Suisse
Published: 1/2013
It is now over five years since the beginning of the global financial crisis and there is a sense that, following interruptions from the Eurozone crisis and, more recently, the fiscal cliff debate in the USA, the world economy is finally moving towards a meaningful recovery. In this context, the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 examines how stocks and bonds might perform in a world that is witnessing a resurgence in investor risk appetite and might soon see a rise in inflation expectations. With their analysis of data spanning 113 years of history across 25 countries, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton from the London Business School provide important research that helps guide investors as to what they might expect from market behavior in coming years.
With the improving business cycle in mind, Andrew Garthwaite and his team analyze whether inflation is good for equities. Drawing on the Yearbook dataset, they assess what type of inflation we may see in the future, and what equity sectors, industries and regions offer the best inflation exposure.
- Download the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 (PDF): http://bit.ly/1pbjE7U
- Order the print version of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 http://bit.ly/1dvaRfh
Visit the Credit Suisse Research Institute website: http://bit.ly/18Cxa0p
Annual Equity Outlook 2022 | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
- The document recaps the key events and market movements of 2021, noting several major turning points that played out as anticipated, including the normalization of stimulus measures, the shift from deflation to reflation, and changing market cycles.
- Going into 2022, the environment is described as akin to shifting sands, with dynamism at its peak. An active management approach is recommended to navigate changing macros and valuations.
- Global liquidity is moderating as central banks withdraw stimulus, which has been a major driver of market changes. Inflation is rising in both emerging and developed economies.
1. 2023 will be a challenging year globally with high inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and diverging economic growth across regions. The US and Europe are expected to fall into recession while China may see positive surprises.
2. Europe will fall into recession this winter due to an energy crisis, with inflation remaining above targets through 2023. The US is also at risk of recession in the second half of 2023 if the Fed's terminal rate rises close to 6%.
3. Central banks will continue tightening monetary policy aggressively to fight high inflation, which could lead to recession risks. Financial markets may see opportunities for entry points after an initial period of caution as recession risks become priced in.
For some time we have been forecasting a “lost decade” of growth for the Eurozone. However, the risk of an imminent Eurozone breakup, which weighed heavily on business and consumer confidence for much of 2012, has been averted. The economy is expected to start growing again from mid-2013, but overall a decline of 0.5% is still forecast for 2013, followed by very sluggish growth of only 1.4% a year in 2014-17.
Improving competitiveness and strengthening demand from the US and emerging markets will start to boost Eurozone exports over the coming year. Please also see www.ey.com/eef for further information and access to the forecasting data.
The document discusses the global economic outlook for 2023. Key points:
- Global economic growth is expected to continue decelerating in 2023 as major economies face negative factors like high inflation, slowing demand, and geopolitical tensions.
- Central banks will have to walk a fine line to cool inflation without triggering a recession by engineering a soft landing for the global economy.
- There are significant downside risks, with all large economies facing hurdles like high energy prices in Europe, interest rate sensitivity in the US, pandemic policies weighing on China, and slowing external demand pressuring Japan and emerging markets.
This document discusses risk and investing strategies. It emphasizes the importance of portfolio diversification, dividing assets across income stocks, risk stocks, momentum stocks, and cash. It also stresses accepting that markets cannot be perfectly timed but risk allocation is important. The document then analyzes various risks in the current market environment, such as issues in Europe and interest rate changes. It provides sector and stock recommendations, examining performance of sectors over different time periods.
The document summarizes economic concerns from a single day in May 2012. It discusses Greece potentially leaving the eurozone and going into economic collapse. It also mentions the weakening European economy, troubles in the European commercial real estate market, and issues with J.P. Morgan that were hurting market sentiment. However, the document expresses that diversification may help investors weather volatility and that the outlook is better than 2008-2009 despite some challenges still existing.
The document provides an overview of the Bush-era tax cuts that are scheduled to expire at the end of 2012. It discusses:
1) The major tax cuts implemented in 2001 and 2003, including reductions in individual income tax rates, increases in tax credits, and reductions in estate taxes.
2) That these tax cuts were intended to be temporary and would expire at the end of 2010 unless extended by Congress.
3) That Congress passed legislation in 2010 to extend certain provisions, such as lower capital gains and dividend tax rates, for two additional years through 2012.
4) An explanation that if these tax cuts are allowed to expire as scheduled at the end of 2012, individual tax rates and other taxes
My outlook for the year, written in December last year. Overly pessimistic unfortunately but with Spanish yields now over 6%, we\'re not out of the woods yet! (Pls note I did not write the China stocks or currency section.)
The document discusses stock market performance in different countries over the past 10 years. It notes that while the US is a global leader in many areas, its stock market returned only 7.32% annually over the past decade, ranking it 39th globally. The top performing market was Colombia at 36.72% annually. Many smaller or developing markets significantly outperformed the US. The document argues that investing globally through thousands of stocks decreases risk and can increase returns, as different markets outperform at different times. It concludes that wealth creation occurs worldwide, and an international diversified approach is best for investors.
The document provides an economic forecast summary for June 2012. It forecasts:
- US real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2012, slowing thereafter.
- Eurozone GDP to contract by 0.7% in 2012, with growth recovering slowly thereafter. Germany will fare best while Greece, Portugal, and Spain will fare worst.
- EM economies will continue outperforming developed economies in 2012-2016, though Chinese growth will slow to 8.3% in 2012.
It also discusses risks such as the European debt crisis, geopolitical tensions, and the impacts of fiscal policy changes.
- The document provides an outlook on various asset classes and markets for February 2013 from Henley, a wealth management firm.
- It discusses the decoupling of markets and fundamentals due to money printing by developed nations, and sees a currency crisis as likely within the next couple years.
- In equities, it is positive in the short-term due to quantitative easing inflating prices, but negative on fundamentals. Real estate prices are stabilizing in select areas like Singapore, London, and signs of stability in the US, but further weakness is expected elsewhere. Fixed income carries inflation risk from monetary easing.
The global economic outlook remains modest. While the US job market has strengthened and the eurozone crisis has been averted, growth remains constrained by high oil prices, fiscal tightening, and sluggish demand. The EIU forecasts US GDP growth of 1.9% in 2012 and contraction of 0.7% in the eurozone. Housing markets are improving but remain a drag. Emerging markets will continue to outperform developed economies. Geopolitical risks pose challenges to oil supply and prices. Central banks aim to keep rates low but further stimulus appears unlikely if jobs growth continues.
The Dynamic Implications of Sequence Risk on a Distribution Portfolio Journal...Better Financial Education
A practical method for advisers to measure exposure to sequence risk is through evaluation of the current probability of failure rate (which I've later renames as iteration failure rate to reflect measurement of the Monte Carlo simulation rather than the plan itself - two different things). This paper lead to a deeper investigation of failure rates thus leading to two subsequent papers discovering the three-dimensional nature of simulations over various time periods and allocations, as well as application of longevity to the simulation modeling.
Can You Pick The Next Winner?
Asset Class Performance 2002‐2021 of various global markets.
Pick any color in any earlier year and see what
happened in any later year. Bottom go up and top go down randomly.
*Note the 20 year results also
change asset class positions
over the years (don't predict
the future).
This document presents data on annual stock market returns in the US from 1926 to 2021. It shows that the market had positive returns in 75% of years, and the average annualized return was 10.2%. However, nearly two-thirds of yearly returns were at least 10 percentage points above or below the average. It also notes that more than two-thirds of down years were followed by up years, such as the 5% loss in 2018 followed by a 30.4% gain in 2019. The document concludes that investors who can withstand short-term volatility and maintain a long-term perspective tend to be rewarded in the stock market.
Prototype software example of aging model incorporating both portfolio and lo...Better Financial Education
This first appeared in blog post that describes the graphs in more details
https://blog.betterfinancialeducation.com/sustainable-retirement/what-are-the-three-paradigms-of-retirement-planning/
Prototype software example of aging model incorporating both portfolio and longevity percentile statistics along with consumer spending trend line of “Real People” (which is not based here on spending percentile statistics, but on research averages). Starting balance $500,000 with $36,000 Social Security. Two simple graphs by age answer many retiree questions about potential future spending and balances. Creates a whole different discussion. Also illustrates why age 95 is a poor reference for planning since it doesn’t plan or consider aging into future ages from the beginning of retirement.
Finding the parallels between flying a jet and helping people
develop financial plans may be difficult for the average person, but for Larry R. Frank Sr., the similarities between these two activities are crystal clear.
A question of equilibrium - can there be more buyers than sellers? Or more se...Better Financial Education
Have you ever wondered who is buying if so many people are selling?
The notion that sellers can outnumber buyers on
down days doesn’t make sense. What the newscasters should say, of course, is that prices adjusted lower because would-be buyers weren’t prepared to pay
the former price.
What happens in such a case is either the would-be sellers sit on their shares or prices quickly adjust to the point where supply and demand come into balance and transactions occur at a price that both buyers
and sellers find mutually beneficial. Economists refer
to this as equilibrium.
The Happiness Equation as it relates to investing is an interrelationship between your perceptions and expectations of investing and events. How do you manage happiness when you can't manage the markets?
A mistake many inexperienced sailors make is not having a plan at all. They embark without a clear sense of their destination. And once they do decide, they often find themselves lost at sea in the wrong boat
with inadequate provisions.
Destination, contingencies when trouble comes up, course corrections, bad weather and more can happen on the journey. How do you properly prepare for sailing is much the same as investing.
When setting expectations,
it’s helpful to see the range of outcomes experienced
by investors historically. For example, how often have
the stock market’s annual returns actually aligned with
its long-term average? Better yet, how often are the markets positive?
This document outlines a general plan to address various financial issues in three phases: retirement income, lost survivor income, and estate planning. It lists possible sources of income or solutions for each phase, such as pensions, social security, retirement savings, life insurance, and trusts. The plan emphasizes putting solutions in writing, reviewing them periodically, and deciding on a plan by considering available resources that can only be used once.
The world is risky. The future is uncertain. And many of the decisions we make can have a pro-found impact on our future welfare. Risk cannot be eliminated, but it can be managed.
Blog post for further perspective http://wp.me/p2Oizj-I8 (scheduled to post 17 May 17).
Robo-advisor portfolios may be well diversified, they also contain construction gaps that should not be present in well-constructed portfolios.
Post discussing this in broader context schedule for 3 May 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-HV
Robo-advisor portfolios may be well diversified, they also contain construction gaps that should not be present in well-constructed portfolios.
Post discussing this in broader context schedule for 3 May 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-HV
This paper essentially demonstrates to academics and the profession that the current method of computing retirement income essentially arrives at a single solution applicable only to today; it does not model the future as currently interpreted. Our paper contrasts the difference between a calculation and a "multi-cast" simulation model.
Our research summary paper is published in the Journal of Financial Planning, Nov 2016. A link to the paper is available here "Combining Stochastic Simulations and Actuarial Withdrawals into One Model." ( http://bit.ly/2eLBUq9 )
Our working paper documenting our research project won the CFP® Board Best Research Paper Award at the 2016 Academy of Financial Services ( http://academyfinancial.org/ ) annual conference through an academic panel using a blind review process. "Certainty of Lifestyle: Contrasting a Simulation Over a Fixed Period versus Multiple Period Models" ( http://bit.ly/2dWtuNz )
In early Nov 2016, two blogs will post going into more insights from the research: Just where does the fear of outliving our money come from? Part I with link to Part II. ( http://wp.me/p2Oizj-H2 )
Investing makes it possible for many of us to achieve important lifetime goals, such as retirement. That’s why we employ an investment approach based on almost nine decades of data, analysis and research, insights from behavioral finance and close relationships with leading academics. There are four key concepts which play a vital role in the construction and management of our portfolios. Together, they add up to a distinctive long-term, approach we call Asset Class, or evidence-based, Investing
There are a number of different methods of calculating investment return, depending on what you’re trying to measure. Perhaps the most basic is total return, which is simply an investment’s ending balance expressed as a percent of its beginning balance. Total return includes capital appreciation and income components; it assumes all income distributions are reinvested. To annualize total return, you’ll need to calculate the compound annual return, which generally requires using a financial calculator. It’s important to keep in mind that you need a greater percentage gain after a losing year in order to break even on your investment.
More discussion of this when blog posts 22 Feb 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Hk
The article discusses an alternative approach to experiencing the costs of index reconstitution, called “Asset Classes,” which allow the fund manager broader leeway as to when to buy or sell, along with a broader range of holdings. This discussion begins in the section called “Decision Two: Indexing or Asset Class Investing?”
The Asset Class approach, also referred to by others as "Factor Investing," is based on what has become to be called “Evidence Based Investing” due to roots discussed in the linked "Factor Investing" article, that come from academic (peer reviewed and repeatable results) foundation that continues to this day.
My blog post discussing this article is scheduled to post 8 Feb 2017 http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Hh
There is a cost to indexing that most investors are unaware of. It is called “reconstitution.”
A blog post is scheduled for 8 Feb 2017 discussing this article.
http://wp.me/p2Oizj-Hh
Most people look at the benefits they would receive today when making their decision about when to begin receiving their Social Security. They also underestimate how long they may live unless they already have medical issues that are known to reduce longevity.
These two impulses cause many couples to begin their benefits too early which has an adverse effect for survivor income. When one person dies, the lowest benefit “goes away” and the highest benefit “remains.”
The article below explains how that works with a couple and their Social Security benefits at various ages.
1. Portfolio
Perspectives
February 2013
Predictions of Uncertainty
Twelve months and a million headlines later, we can now see these
professional guesses for exactly what they are. Slow economic
By Joni Clark, CFA, CFP® growth, debt concerns, dysfunctional politics and a troubled euro
Chief Investment Officer, Loring Ward zone could not stand in the way of financial markets this year.
The U.S. stock market bounced back even in the face of much
negative news and uncertainty, and the S&P 500 Index finished
What is the stock market going to do over the next year? And how up a healthy 16% for the year. Yet, more than 65% of investment
about the economy? Wouldn’t it be great to know in advance? managers benchmarked to the S&P 500 Index failed to beat it in
2012.2 Perhaps they spent too much time listening to the gloomy
At the end of every year, Wall Street prognosticators look into predictions.
their crystal balls and try to answer these questions.
The region of the world that was considered the worst place to
If you are confused about which prediction to heed for a good invest at the start of 2012 was Europe because of their severe
estimate of this year’s returns, don’t worry — the data suggests debt crisis and the potential breakup of the European Union.
you’d be better off flipping a coin.
Another 2012 prediction that failed was the potential collapse
With Wall Street strategists’ dismal track record of predicting of the Euro, which was widely publicized in the financial media
the future, it is hard to see why they even bother to try. as “the Grexit.”
Since the turn of the century, the average yearly prediction has “Greece will begin official negotiations to exit the Euro…
been off by more than 10%, according to data from Bloomberg. — The International Business Times (December 22, 2011)
That almost matches the average market rise or fall over the
same period!1 Money managers who bet against the conviction of European
leaders to hold together the 17-nation currency union missed
Their accuracy in predicting the markets in 2012 was no better. out on some of the best investment opportunities.
Predictions were overwhelmingly negative, and many predicted
another lackluster year for stocks in 2012 based on continued Although much of the financial news in 2012 highlighted Europe’s
troubles in the global economy. fragile financial health, the euro zone did not fall apart. The MSCI
Euro Index delivered a stunning stock market return of 23% for
“The S&P 500 will fall 7.2% for the year.” the year. In fact, most of Europe’s individual country markets out-
— Adam Parker, U.S. stock strategist at Morgan Stanley performed the U.S. Only Europe’s PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland,
“The U.S. stock market will end slightly up for the year…another Greece and Spain) produced returns below the U.S., and even
lost year like this one.” these troubled country market returns were positive, ranging from
— Forbes Magazine (December 21, 2011) 4.73 to 13.46%.
Financial Times, December 7, 2012, “Investing Forecasts Omit Key factor — Luck.”
1
“Almost All of Wall Street Got 2012 Market Calls Wrong,” www.bloomberg.com/news/print (January 4, 2013)
2