Investing for me means....

2. Its all about Risk.
What is your risk capital and what is your time horizon. Risk in simple terms or VAR means
100% loss possibility.
If we look back at the stock markets over 10 years we are back to where we started but how many
people held on to their losses in 2001, 2008?
Investing for me means the following:
1. Trading and investing simultaneously
2. Portfolio diversification into income stocks, risk stocks, momentum stocks and
cash, beating the S&P/DJIA and the DAX on these 3 sub categories.
3. Trying to time markets but accepting the fact that algos and Traders rule the markets so
timing is impossible but allocation of risk is good
4. PEs and other financial metrics are nice to have, understand and make value decisions but
a company with a low PE does not allow you to know when it will go up (Apple, Exxon
ETC)= Timing is impossible but prudence is a must
5. No stop losses as an investment decision is based on good judgment and if the stock goes
the other way then only 1 of two things is possible: bad judgment or poor timing
6. Using Charts as charts take all information into account- fundamentals and news and
show a clearer picture on a daily, weekly and monthly basis
7. When markets go up best of breed are the surest and fastest and safest bets
8. All the money that I invest I can lose hence make sure that my AUM are divided as
mentioned in point 2 above. The division is based on market volatility and market
performance
9. Currently my portfolio is loaded with German high paying dividend stocks, India ETF,
Eurostoxx 600 ETF, US momentum stocks and high dividend stock (this is because I
would like to take EURO/USD devaluation) into account and am bullish
RIsks as of today
1. Greece default= highly volatile European market, Mario Draghi QE taken a back seat but
that money will blow this economy into the stratosphere, when? Find cheap European
stocks and buy long term secured with high dividend
2. Contagion effect= Italy, Spain, Portugal could also leave
3. Fed Interest rate rise would have taken place if not for Greece
4. two minor US interest rates hike make US stock not so exciting as money will flow into
treasuries and saving accounts and a majority has already flown into Europe
5. Stronger USD makes US blue chips extremely difficult to value as it depends on how
much money is offshore and how much of sales is international
6. A lot of sectors are overvalued so stocks can keep rising but a fall is imminent, when is
difficult to guess but since 2014 a lot of money has flown out of the stock market as
prudent investors are waiting for this inevitable "fall". Example I went to cash on Jan 21st
expecting Mario Draghi to offer a 30 billion QE program, that price was built into the
market, my portfolio was 15% YTD, Buy the rumor sell the news, the charts were
showing an overvaluation, overheating on the weekly charts using technical indicators,
Bluechips were hitting new highs, reversal was eminent, what happened, the markets went
up 25% with Mario Draghi buying 60 billion a month and I was waiting for this
correction to happen. I had all the right stocks so you can imagine how disappointed I was
when I saw these "could have been mine gains disappear" I believe that the correction is

3. ending and that Greece issue will be resolved (BIG PICTURE Greece defaulted in 2012,
Argentina defaulted, a lot of countries defaulted and our world just keeps moving on).
That's investing, you cannot outrun the market and never know when it will start or stop
but you can check your risk. I was right that the market was overheated but at the wrong
time. Oxymoron.
7. In hindsight one understands everything!
8. Too much noise in Europe, Greece, Ukraine, Russia, Switzerland= volatility markets are
moving 200 points in a day
9. Too much noise in the US- JANET JANET JANET interest rates, inflation,
unemployment, wage rates- markets are volatile The Fed Chairwoman said, “Let me
emphasize that the importance of the initial increase should not be overstated. The stance
of monetary policy will likely remain highly accommodative for quite some time after the
initial increase in the federal funds rate in order to support continued progress towards our
objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation.” Market rally starts! Subject to
Greece negotiations……
10. Will Greece default, it has before in 2012 (its about the mentality and that will not
change, read this article http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-
201010)
11. QE worldwide could be the next bubble= China, UK, EU, Japan all this free money some
one has to bear the burden
12. Oil and fracking prices, delta between crude and brent returning to normal god for
refiners, Gold, bonds, Oil, currency and stocks all very volatile as the markets are
searching for direction.
13. The market is currently fucked up and that is one huge risk making long term investments
at cheap prices possible but these stocks can still fall.
Having said that if you are still interested in investing then:
Look at long term investments with companies having market cap over 2 billion preferable 10
billion
If Interest rates go up= Financials, industrials, Cyclicals (consumer discretionary) and energy will
go up
If Interest rates stay down= High dividend stocks, Consumer staples and healthcare
Look at short term investments with companies having market cap over 100 million
Look at long term investments with companies having rising dividends- dividend stars
1. Look at Indexes and Sectors over a 10 year horizon
2. Remove all the noise by looking at monthly and weekly charts
3. Find the best sector performance and worst sector performance
4. Read everything about those sectors
5. Find the best of breed in those sectors and check fundamentals, price targets
6. Find the worst of breed in those sectors and check fundamentals, price targets
7. Winners vs laggards everyone gets a chance to be beautiful, question is when?
8. Find an entry point, get all excited about it and pull the trigger!!!!!!!

4. Look at these charts below of the nine sectors ETFs that comprise the S&P 500: Horizontal lines
start of year. Vertical lines support and resistance lines.
1. Ticker XLU, Utilities top 5 holdings-Duke Energy, NextEra Energy Inc, Dominion
Resourses, Southern Co, Exelon Co
2. Ticker XLP, Consumer Staples top 5 holdings-P&G, Coca Cola, Walmart Stores, Philip
Morris International, CVS Health Corporation

5. 3. Ticker XLY, Consumer Discretionary top 5 holdings-Walt Disney, Comcast Corp, Home
DEPOT, Amazon, McDonald’s Inc
4. Ticker XLV, Healthcare top 5 holdings-Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer, Merck, Gilead
Sciences, Amgen

6. 5. Ticker XLK, Technology top 5 holdings-Apple, Microsoft, Verizon, AT&T,
FACEBOOK, INTEL, ORACLE, IBM
6. Ticker XLI, Industrials top 5 holdings-General Electric Co, Union Pacific Corp, 3M,
United Technologies, Boeing, Honeywell Intl Inc

7. 7. Ticker XLF, Financials top 5 holdings-Berkshire Hathaway B, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan
Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup
8. Ticker XLB, Materials top 5 holdings-Du Pont, Monsanto, Dow Chemicals, Praxair,
LyondellBasell Industries NV

8. 9. Ticker XLE, Energy top 5 holdings-Exxon, Chevron, Schlumberger, Kinder Morgan,
Conocophilips
10. Ticker INX, S&P 500

9. Sector Stock picking in these times of uncertainty
1.Consumer Discretionary 1.Time Warner, 2.Comcast, 3.Home DEPOT & 4. Lowes
2.Consumer Staples 1. ALTRIA group, 2. CVS Healthcare
3.Healthcare 1. BIOGEN, 2. Medtronic, 3. Amgen, 4. Merck, 5. Express script, 6. Merck
Cyclical Staples, Energy, HEALTHCARE, Utilities and telekom
Defensive Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, TECH AND Materials
Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
PERFORMANCE RANKING Energy Financials Healthcare Technology Materials C. Staples C.Discretionary Industrials Utilities
BETTER THAN S&P Years S&p 500 XLE XLF XLV XLK XLB XLP XLY XLI XLU
financials /discr /energy 2006 13.3% 15.9% 19.9% 5.4% 12.6% 18.0%
energy/staple/healthcare 2007 3.1% 36.6% -23.2% 4.6% 10.1% -15.8%
staple/healthcare/discr 2008 -38.6% -40.0% -64.2% -24.7% -16.9% -34.5%
tech/materials/discr 2009 23.6% 18.3% 13.8% 16.8% 46.6% 44.3% 10.3% 38.5% 18.0% 5.6%
discr/industrials/energy/materials 2010 12.6% 17.7% 11.1% 0.3% 8.8% 14.7% 10.6% 24.6% 24.0% 0.3%
utilities/staples/healthcare/disc 2011 -0.9% 0.3% -20.6% 10.1% 0.4% -12.8% 10.7% 3.3% -3.4% 14.7%
financials/discr/healthcare 2012 12.9% 0.1% 29.7% 13.5% 10.9% 9.6% 7.1% 19.6% 10.3% -3.5%
discr/industrials/healthcare/fin 2013 29.2% 21.0% 30.1% 36.5% 21.5% 20.5% 21.5% 38.2% 34.6% 7.6%
healthcare/utilities/tech/fin/staples 2014 11.4% -10.1% 17.2% 23.6% 17.3% 5.7% 13.1% 8.7% 8.9% 24.3%
discr/tech/healthcare/industrials 2009/14 yr 88.9% 47.3% 81.4% 100.7% 105.6% 82.0% 73.3% 133.0% 92.3% 49.0%
discr/fin/industrials/ healthcare/tech 2009/2014 total210.11% 168.3% 309.2% 227.8% 222.4% 184.5% 159.1% 350.3% 275.4% 120.7%
2015 YTD JUNE 18 2015 3.06% -2.4% 1.7% 10.5% 7.8% 4.5% 1.4% 7.9% -1.3% -12.9%
Definitions
Healthcare=Companies in this sector primarily include health care equipment and supplies, health care providers and services, biotechnology, and pharmaceuticals
industries. Pfizer Inc., Johnson & Johnson, and Abbott Labs are included in this sector’s mix. Note: The Health Care Select Sector SPDR was known as the Consumer
Services Select Sector SPDR until June 24, 2002.
Industrials=General Electric Co., Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing Co., and United Parcel are among the largest components by market capitalization in this sector.
Industries in the Index include aerospace and defense, building products, construction and engineering, electrical equipment, conglomerates, machinery, commercial
services and supplies, air freight and logistics, airlines, marine, road and rail, etc.
Tech=Stocks primarily covering products developed by internet software and service companies, IT consulting services, semiconductor equipment and products, computers
and peripherals, diversified telecommunication services and wireless telecommunication services are included in this Index. Components include Microsoft Corp., AT&T,
International Business Machines Corp., and Cisco.
Disc=Industries such as automobiles and components, consumer durables, apparel, hotels, restaurants, leisure, media, and retailing are primarily represented in this group.
The Index includes McDonald's, Walt Disney Co., and Comcast. Note: The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR was known as the Cyclical/Transportation Select
Sector SPDR until June 24, 2002
Staples=The companies in this sector are primarily involved in the development and production of consumer products that cover food and drug retailing, beverages, food
products, tobacco, household products, and personal products. Component stocks include Wal-Mart, Proctor & Gamble, Philip Morris International, and Coca-Cola.
Energy=companies in this Index primarily develop and produce crude oil and natural gas, and provide drilling and other energy-related services. Leaders in the group include
ExxonMobil Corp., Chevron Corp, and ConocoPhillips.
Materials=This Index is primarily composed of companies involved in such industries as chemicals, construction materials, containers and packaging, metals and mining,
and paper and forest products. Among its largest components are Monsanto, E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co., and Dow Chemical Co. Note: The Materials Select Sector
SPDR was known as the Basic Industries Select Sector SPDR until June 24, 2002.
Utilities = companies that produce, generate, transmit or distribute electricity or natural gas. The component companies include Exelon Corp., Southern Co., and
Dominion Resources Inc.
Financials=diversified financial service firms are featured in this sector with business lines ranging from investment management to commercial and investment banking.
Among the companies included in the Index are JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BankAmerica Corp.
Weekly Charts 1.03.09
NAME SYMBOL % MOVE Price target 19.06.15 % AWAY 50 WEEK EMAcrossed ATR % ATR Div%
Lowes Companies IncLOW 462.47% 78.08 70.06 11% 64.85 8.06.14 2.7 3.85% 1.60%
Comcast CorporationCMCSA 436.45% 67.35 60.71 11% 56.29 12.10.14 2.4 3.95% 1.65%
Home Depot HD 566.07% 123.46 112.57 10% 102.93 6.04.14 3.9 3.46% 2.10%
Time Warner TWX 414.51% 96.3 88.05 9% 80.8 13.05.12 3.2 3.63% 1.59%
Weekly Charts 1.03.09
NAME SYMBOL % MOVE Price target 19.06.15 % AWAY 50 WEEK EMAcrossed ATR % ATR Div%
ALTRIA GROUPMO 269.10% 57 49.46 15% 48.66 14.06.15 1.9 3.84% 4.22%
CVS Health corpCVS 351.28% 115.4 105.62 9% 93.54 23.10.11 3.2 3.03% 1.33%
Weekly Charts 1.03.09
NAME SYMBOL % MOVE Price target 19.06.15 % AWAY 50 WEEK EMAcrossed ATR % ATR
BIOGEN IDEC BIIB 985.79% 476.38 412 16% 367.05 4.07.10 23.8 5.78%
AMGEN AMGN 272.46% 179.47 161.18 11% 150.8 13.11.11 8 4.96%
Express ScriptsESRX 302.30% 95.5 90.2 6% 81.42 27.7.14 3.5 3.88%
UnitedHealth GroupUNH 647.66% 138.79 120.11 16% 104.33 10.03.13 4.6 3.83%
Merck MRK 183.88% 65.69 58.02 13% 58.08 7.06.15 2.2 3.79%
Medtronics MDT 217.56% 87.03 76.68 13% 71.74 3.06.12 2.7 3.52%

10. 4. Tech 1. Facebook, 2. Google
5. Materials 1. PPG Industries, 2. Dow Chemical 3. Ecolab
6. Industrials 1. Honeywell, 2. Danaher 3. Boeing
7. Utilities 1. Nextera
8. Energy 1. Phillips 66
9. Financials
That would be a list of stocks that I would put on a watch list and then actively monitor the following
from the above list. These stocks are long term holdings until the price targets are met. All of the
below move more than 3% in a week. They are all
Weekly Charts 1.03.09
NAME SYMBOL % MOVE Price target 19.06.15 % AWAY 50 WEEK EMAcrossed ATR % ATR
Facebook FB 377.99% 95.76 82.51 16% 75.64 21.07.13 3.8 4.61%
Google GOOGL 317.2 638.3 557.52 14% 548.23 14.06.15 22.6 4.05%
Weekly Charts 1.03.09
NAME SYMBOL % MOVE Price target 19.06.15 % AWAY 50 WEEK EMAcrossed ATR % ATR Div%
DOW CHEMICALDOW 788.65% 55 53.28 3% 49.09 29.03.15 2.2 4.13% 3.15%
ECOLAB ECL 306.35% 123.88 117.17 6% 111.06 1.02.15 3.7 3.16% 1.13%
PPG INDUSTRIESPPG 812.73% 128 117.3 9% 109.12 19.10.14 3.7 3.15% 1.23%
Weekly Charts 1.03.09
NAME SYMBOL % MOVE Price target 19.06.15 % AWAY 50 WEEK EMAcrossed ATR % ATR Div%
DANAHER DHR 267.86% 98.59 85.84 15% 82.31 12.10.14 2.6 3.03% 0.63%
BOEING BA 436.32% 163 145.06 12% 138.36 14.12.14 5.7 3.93% 2.51%
HONEYWELL HON 365.79% 113.8 105.33 8% 99.54 19.10.14 3.2 3.04% 1.97%
Weekly Charts 1.03.09
NAME SYMBOL % MOVE Price target 19.06.15 % AWAY 50 WEEK EMAcrossed ATR % ATR Div%
Nextera energyNEE 163.11% 117.33 100.96 16% 100.62 14.06.15 3.8 3.76% 3.05%
Weekly Charts 1.03.09
NAME SYMBOL % MOVE Price target 19.06.15 % AWAY 50 WEEK EMAcrossed ATR % ATR Div%
PHILLIPS 66 PSX 201.07% 90.8 79.67 14% 76.84 15.03.15 3.9 4.90% 2.81%
Weekly Charts 1.03.09
Sector NAME SYMBOL % MOVE Price target 19.06.15 % AWAY 50 WEEK EMAcrossed ATR % ATR Div%
CdiscretionaryTime Warner TWX 414.51% 96.3 88.05 9% 80.8 13.05.12 3.2 3.63% 1.59%
Cstaples CVS Health corpCVS 351.28% 115.4 105.62 9% 93.54 23.10.11 3.2 3.03% 1.33%
Healthcare BIOGEN IDEC BIIB 985.79% 476.38 412 16% 367.05 4.07.10 23.8 5.78%
Healthcare AMGEN AMGN 272.46% 179.47 161.18 11% 150.8 13.11.11 8 4.96% 1.97%
Healthcare UnitedHealth GroupUNH 647.66% 138.79 120.11 16% 104.33 10.03.13 4.6 3.83% 1.66%
Healthcare Medtronics MDT 217.56% 87.03 76.68 13% 71.74 3.06.12 2.7 3.52% 1.59%
Tech Facebook FB 377.99% 95.76 82.51 16% 75.64 21.07.13 3.8 4.61%

11. Fundamental analysis of the above mentioned stock
As you can see they have had a considerable run and are currently flirting with full valuations. The
opportunity for a 10% gain is there but the risk that the markets sell off after the Greece negotiations
are over is high.
The first 7 stocks I WOULD research a bit more and wait for a slight reversal before buying.
Weekly Charts mrq TTM Next year TTM TTM TTM TTM TTM Perf
Sector NAME SYMBOL Price/Book valuePE Forward PE PEG Gross Margin Op Margin ROA ROE ROI Year Market Cap
CdiscretionaryTime Warner TWX 3.02 21.73 15.25 1.26 41.80% 23.10% 7.60% 19% 11.00% 28.99% 72.56 B
Cstaples CVS Health corpCVS 3.22 25.72 17.92 1.73 17.90% 6.20% 6.40% 13% 10.30% 38.09% 119 B
Healthcare BIOGEN IDEC BIIB 8.28 29.68 21.15 1.76 88.10% 43.20% 23.30% 31% 26.20% 31.76% 96.69 B
Healthcare AMGEN AMGN 4.61 21.69 15.22 1.94 80.70% 37.00% 8.20% 22% 10.20% 38.97% 122.2 B
Healthcare UnitedHealth GroupUNH 3.6 20.06 17.01 2.04 8.10% 6.80% 18% 12.50% 51.81% 114.54 B
Healthcare Medtronics MDT 3.74 24.59 15.81 3.71 74.10% 29.20% 7.40% 16% 10.10% 20.75% 109.32 B
Tech Facebook FB 4.93 82.51 31.19 2.95 82.60% 35.90% 13.30% 15% 8.30% 28.24% 231.71 B
CdiscretionaryLowes Companies IncLOW 7.01 25 17.73 1.47 34.80% 8.70% 8.20% 26% 15.10% 54.92% 65.28 B
CdiscretionaryComcast CorporationCMCSA 2.92 18.34 16.03 1.21 70.40% 22.00% 5.40% 16% 10.90% 16.23% 152.07 B
CdiscretionaryHome Depot HD 15.86 22.81 18.64 1.69 34.70% 12.80% 15.60% 65% 25.80% 42.63% 146.04 B
Cstaples ALTRIA GROUPMO 38.23 19.89 16.28 2.41 41.80% 31.70% 14.40% 138% 27.50% 19.53% 96.99 B
Utilities Nextera energyNEE 2.21 16.63 16.61 2.64 50.20% 27.40% 3.70% 14% 6.50% 3.82% 44.84 B
Healthcare Express ScriptsESRX 3.18 31.64 14.93 2.47 8.20% 4.50% 4.00% 10% 7.60% 31.12% 65.54 B
Healthcare Merck MRK 3.44 15.08 15.21 3.71 61.40% 37.70% 11.00% 24% 0.50% 2.63% 163.98 B
Industrials DANAHER DHR 2.6 23.78 18.16 1.71 52.60% 17.00% 7.20% 11% 9.50% 7.73% 60.73 B
Industrials BOEING BA 12.93 18.16 15.61 1.47 15.70% 8.30% 6.10% 52% 32.60% 11.97% 100.36 B
Industrials HONEYWELL HON 4.71 19.29 15.74 1.92 28.80% 16.60% 9.50% 24% 16.40% 13.79% 82.35 B
Materials DOW CHEMICALDOW 3.32 16.75 14.86 1.96 19.30% 11.20% 5.60% 19% 10.30% 17.89% 61.43 B
Materials ECOLAB ECL 5.09 28.72 22.62 2.14 46.60% 14.40% 6.40% 17% 10.70% 9.33% 34.89 B
Materials PPG INDUSTRIESPPG 6.31 27.8 18.09 2.57 43.00% 10.20% 6.70% 21% 13.60% 16.92% 32 B
Energy PHILLIPS 66 PSX 2.01 10.72 11.35 1.23 17.80% 2.50% 8.40% 19% 5.00% -4.04% 43.15 B
Tech Google GOOGL 3.5 27.67 17.03 1.9 62.10% 25.40% 11.40% 14% 12.00% -1.32% 373.85 B