Pravda analytics technical monthly review for march 2017

‫‏‬Pravda
Analytics
Pravda Markets Report
Technicals Monthly
March 2017 Edition

Pravda Analytics | Copyright © 2017 | All rights reserved
Market Index Overview – S&P500 (SPX) as of close Friday 3/3/17
February sprinted into new high with strong momentum. The short term 8 and 21 moving averages haven't had a bear cross since
November of 2016 while the 21 day moving average was not even tested (by price) in February. A retracement to the 21 is overdue.
Don’t forget the big picture and
observe the monthly chart

A Closer Technical Look – Bonds (TLT) as of close Friday 3/3/17
Bonds continue sideways action after finding support in December at $117. Will continue to monitor two things: Fed, key
support/resistance lines below:
*short term crossover confirmation: a direction short term trend signaled by the shorter term moving average (8 day – thin red line) crossing
above or below the longer term moving average (21 day – thin blue line)

A Closer Technical Look – Oil
Oil continues to slowly grind higher. Break of the 52 resistance was key for bulls in breaking out of the range bound trading. That 52
area is now viewed as support and should not break if the bulls continue to push price up.
Price has been choppy and intertwined with the two short term moving averages.

A Closer Technical Look - Gold
Gold‫‏‬continues‫‏‬to‫‏‬struggle‫‏‬below‫‏‬the‫‏002‏‬day‫‏‬moving‫‏‬average.‫‏‬Gold’s‫‏‬relationship‫‏‬with‫‏‬bonds‫‏‬has‫‏‬long‫‏‬decoupled‫‏‬as‫‏‬gold‫‏‬shows‫‏‬
relative strength against bonds.
Bulls will have to find support at the 50 day moving average near $115 to remain in control of the uptrend that kicked off in January
of 2017. Note key levels and comments below:
*short term crossover confirmation: a direction short term trend signaled by the shorter term moving average (8 day – thin red line) crossing
above or below the longer term moving average (21 day – thin blue line)
Note: below is the GLD gold ETF chart as opposed to the /GC gold futures contract which is a x10 price multiple.

Sentiment – CNN Greed and Fear Index- FAIRLY GREEDY
The Index continues to be elevated as the market breaks into new highs.
What is this? CNN's Fear & Greed Index tracks seven indicators of investor sentiment. Investors are driven by two emotions: fear
and greed. Too much fear can sink stocks well below where they should be. When investors get greedy, they can bid up stock prices
way too far.
“Be‫‏‬Fearful‫‏‬When‫‏‬Others‫‏‬Are‫‏‬Greedy‫‏‬and‫‏‬Greedy‫‏‬
When Others Are Fearful”‫–‏‬ Warren Buffett

Sentiment – AAII Investor Sentiment Survey- NEUTRAL
Both bullish and bearish sentiment has increased over the last month while the neutral consensus declines.
What is this? The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey has become a widely followed measure of the mood of
individual investors. The weekly survey results are published in financial publications including Barron's
and Bloomberg and are widely followed by market strategists, investment newsletter writers and other
financial professionals.
Last Month:

Hook of death
https://fred.stlouisfed.org
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity.
Inverted yield curve often precedes a major market decline. So far so good.

Inverse Put Call Ratio
A unique oscillating indicator based on options activity coupled with a Bollinger Band to view overextended signals.
Options activity is neutral as the put-call ratio is close to 1 and in the middle if the range. S&P500 = orange line.

Stock Averages
Number of Stocks Above 20-Day Moving Average
The market is in a neutral state with a near 50/50 split of stock trending up and down.

Sentiment – ISE Sentiment Index - NEUTRAL
The Index is in line with the 20-day moving average at a neutral state.
What is this? ISEE is an indicator of bullish/bearish investor sentiment that is computed using a unique calculation methodology and
proprietary ISE option trade data. Unlike traditional put/call ratios, ISEE is based on opening long customer transactions only. Trades
by market makers and firms are excluded as these tend to skew sentiment value. As a result, ISEE provides a more accurate
reflection of true investor sentiment.

Market Direction Confirmation via Transports Sector Observation as per Dow Theory
Key premise of the theory states that both
the broad equity market index as well as
the transports index need to align in
market direction to confirm a bullish or
bearish trend. (additional rules apply)
Dow theory
Market Direction: Bullish – with caution
 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is
above key moving averages.
 Dow Jones Transports Average (IYT) is
above key moving averages; however, the
50 day moving average line has been
chopping above and below price.
Current Analysis
A confirmed bullish market is when:
 Both indexes are exhibiting higher price
peaks and valleys on long term charts
 Both indexes are above their respective
200 day moving average (orange)
 Additional level of confirmation: index
above 50 day moving average (blue)
The Approach
Dow Jones Index Transports Index
Transports and the Dow are holding strong above both key moving averages indicating a Bullish environment.

Social Media Sentiment
Chartsource:StockTwits
S&P 500 BONDS GOLD
The sentiment chart shows the percentage breakdown in bullish and bearish sentiment shared by StockTwits users over time. It is
calculated on a rolling, 7 day basis.
The good people of the StockTwits are extremely bullish Bond and Gold.

Currencies
Key support/resistance and trend lines for currencies

Rate Watch
Chartsource:cmegroup
 Fed Funds Rate @ 0.75: market projects a 80% chance that there will be a rate hike in March
 Prime Rate @ 3.75: a quarter percent move up from a year ago
 FOMC’s‫‏‬Rate‫‏‬Projection from the Dot Plot: currently projecting 2017 @ ~1.50 % and 2018 @ ~2.00%

Sector Analysis: year to date performance
Outperformers: Health Care and Consumer Discretionary
Underperformers: Utilities and Energy

Economic Calendar
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
http://www.marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic
The Econoday consensus for February nonfarm payrolls is a solid 195,000 in what would mark only limited give back from January's
surprisingly strong 227,000 gain.
In further strength, forecasters see a 1 tenth dip in February's unemployment rate to 4.7 percent and a sizable 0.3 percent increase
in average hourly earnings that could raise talk of wage inflation.
The average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.4 hours. If the report meets consensus, chances for a rate hike at the mid-
month FOMC would increase further.

Headlines of the week
Notable‫‏‬covers‫‏‬and‫‏‬headlines‫‏‬from‫‏‬world’s‫‏‬most‫‏‬read‫‏‬publications
As Princeton economist Paul Krugman wryly noted, "Whom the Gods would destroy, they first put on the cover of Business Week."

Personal Finance - The Richest Man in Babylon
Make thy gold
multiply
Make of thy
dwelling a
profitable
investment
Guard thy
treasures from
loss
Seven Cures for a
Lean Purse
Start thy purse
to fattening
Control thy
expenditures
Increase thy
ability to earn
Insure a future
income
Goddess of Good Luck smiles upon those who
work hard, save their money, and invest well.
She doesn't really patronize professional
gamblers, who always seem to end up poor
Meet the Goddess of Good Luck Five Laws of Gold (Money)
• Mentors, Books
• Seminars, ExperienceLearn
• Business, Investment
• Knowledge, Attitude, SkillsMaster
Pay
• Yourself first
• Save 10% of earnings
Invest
• Business
• Real estate
• Stocks
• Scams
• Trickeries
• Get rich schemes
Avoid
The Richest Man in Babylon is a book by George S. Clason which dispenses financial advice through a
collection of parables. Through their experiences in business and managing personal finance, the
characters in the parables learn simple lessons in financial wisdom.

Investing & Trading Blueprint
http://www.investors.com
IBD's 10 Secrets to Success – great blueprint to improve your trading, investing, as well as every day
activities and personal goals:

Pravda analytics technical monthly review for march 2017

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Pravda analytics technical monthly review for march 2017