Pravda analytics technical monthly review for april 2017

‫‏‬Pravda
Analytics
Pravda Markets Report
Technicals Monthly
April 2017 Edition

Pravda Analytics | Copyright © 2017 | All rights reserved
Market Index Overview – S&P500 (SPX) as of close Friday 5/7/17
Index continues to consolidate below all-time March highs in a controlled decline. Support is found at the 50 day moving average.

A Closer Technical Look – Bonds (TLT) as of close Friday 3/3/17
Bonds rallied back up to the resistance near $153 and stalled. Bulls failed to break though this multiple times.

A Closer Technical Look – Oil
Oil consolidates in a wedge with resistance at $54.5. Support is at the ascending trend line around $50.

A Closer Technical Look - Gold
Gold’s‫‏7102‏‬rally‫‏‬is‫‏‬halted‫‏‬as‫‏‬it‫‏‬struggles‫‏‬to‫‏‬break‫‏‬the‫‏‬resistance‫‏‬at‫‏‏.0621$‏‬

Sentiment – CNN Greed and Fear Index- FEAR
The Index moving into the FEAR area as US markets continue sliding off their all time highs.
What is this? CNN's Fear & Greed Index tracks seven indicators of investor sentiment. Investors are driven by two emotions: fear
and greed. Too much fear can sink stocks well below where they should be. When investors get greedy, they can bid up stock prices
way too far.
“Be‫‏‬Fearful‫‏‬When‫‏‬Others‫‏‬Are‫‏‬Greedy‫‏‬and‫‏‬Greedy‫‏‬
When Others Are Fearful”‫–‏‬ Warren Buffett

Sentiment – AAII Investor Sentiment Survey- BEARISH
Investors flocked away from Bullish to Neutral and Bearish opinions.
What is this? The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey has become a widely followed measure of the mood of
individual investors. The weekly survey results are published in financial publications including Barron's
and Bloomberg and are widely followed by market strategists, investment newsletter writers and other
financial professionals.
Last Month:

Hook of death
https://fred.stlouisfed.org
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity.
Inverted yield curve often precedes a major market decline. So far so good.

Inverse Put Call Ratio
A unique oscillating indicator based on options activity coupled with a Bollinger Band to view overextended signals.
Options activity is tilted towards Calls indicating bullish sentiment.
Activity is within the lower half the recent historical average as observed by the Bollinger Bangs, indicating a mild S&P500 =
orange line.

Stock Averages
Number of Stocks Above 20-Day Moving Average
The market is in a neutral state with a near 50/50 split of stock trending up and down.

Sentiment – ISE Sentiment Index - NEUTRAL
The Index has recently retraced back to its average for a neutral sentiment.
What is this? ISEE is an indicator of bullish/bearish investor sentiment that is computed using a unique calculation methodology and
proprietary ISE option trade data. Unlike traditional put/call ratios, ISEE is based on opening long customer transactions only. Trades
by market makers and firms are excluded as these tend to skew sentiment value. As a result, ISEE provides a more accurate
reflection of true investor sentiment.
O 10 day moving average
O 50 day moving average

Market Direction Confirmation via Transports Sector Observation as per Dow Theory
Key premise of the theory states that both
the broad equity market index as well as
the transports index need to align in
market direction to confirm a bullish or
bearish trend. (additional rules apply)
Dow theory
Market Direction: Cautiously Bearish
 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is below
long term moving average
 Dow Jones Transports Average (IYT) is below
long term moving average
Current Analysis
A confirmed bullish market is when:
 Both indexes are exhibiting higher price
peaks and valleys on long term charts
 Both indexes are above their respective
200 day moving average (orange)
 Additional level of confirmation: index
above 50 day moving average (blue)
The Approach
Dow Jones Index Transports Index
Transports and the Dow are holding strong above both key moving averages indicating a Bullish environment.

Social Media Sentiment
Chartsource:StockTwits
S&P 500 BONDS GOLD
The sentiment chart shows the percentage breakdown in bullish and bearish sentiment shared by StockTwits users over time. It is
calculated on a rolling, 7 day basis.
The good people of the StockTwits are lightly bullish Stocks and Bonds. Gold remained in extremely bullish sentiment

Currencies
Key support/resistance and trend lines for currencies

Rate Watch
Chartsource:cmegroup
 Fed Funds Rate @ 1.00: market projects a >90% chance that there will NOT be a rate hike in May
 Prime Rate @ 4.00: a half a percent move up from a year ago
 FOMC’s‫‏‬Rate‫‏‬Projection from the Dot Plot: currently projecting 2017 @ ~1.50 % and 2018 @ ~2.00%

Sector Analysis: year to date performance
Outperformers: Health Care and Consumer Discretionary
Underperformers: Utilities and Energy

Economic Calendar
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
http://www.marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic
Storm that swept the Northeast may explain a much weaker-than-expected 98,000 increase in March nonfarm payrolls. This
compares with Econoday's consensus for 175,000 and a low estimate of 125,000. It is also the weakest reading since May last year.
One standout sign of strength in the report and that's the unemployment rate which fell a very sharp 2 tenths to 4.5 percent as the
number of unemployed fell by 326,000 to 7.2 million. This is the lowest unemployment rate since the height of the last expansion in
April 2007

Headlines of the week
Notable‫‏‬covers‫‏‬and‫‏‬headlines‫‏‬from‫‏‬world’s‫‏‬most‫‏‬read‫‏‬publications
As Princeton economist Paul Krugman wryly noted, "Whom the Gods would destroy, they first put on the cover of Business Week."

Personal Finance - The Richest Man in Babylon
Make thy gold
multiply
Make of thy
dwelling a
profitable
investment
Guard thy
treasures from
loss
Seven Cures for a
Lean Purse
Start thy purse
to fattening
Control thy
expenditures
Increase thy
ability to earn
Insure a future
income
Goddess of Good Luck smiles upon those who
work hard, save their money, and invest well.
She doesn't really patronize professional
gamblers, who always seem to end up poor
Meet the Goddess of Good Luck Five Laws of Gold (Money)
• Mentors, Books
• Seminars, ExperienceLearn
• Business, Investment
• Knowledge, Attitude, SkillsMaster
Pay
• Yourself first
• Save 10% of earnings
Invest
• Business
• Real estate
• Stocks
• Scams
• Trickeries
• Get rich schemes
Avoid
The Richest Man in Babylon is a book by George S. Clason which dispenses financial advice through a
collection of parables. Through their experiences in business and managing personal finance, the
characters in the parables learn simple lessons in financial wisdom.

Investing & Trading Blueprint
http://www.investors.com
IBD's 10 Secrets to Success – great blueprint to improve your trading, investing, as well as every day
activities and personal goals:

Pravda analytics technical monthly review for april 2017

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