SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 8
Download to read offline
Volatility
June 2016Monthly Perspectives Portfolio Advice & Investment Research
This document is for distribution to Canadian clients only.
Please refer to the last page of this report for important
disclosure information.
Brad Simpson, Chief Wealth Strategist
In this issue
Volatility seems to be the hardest word�� 1 - 2
Own your risk���������������������������������������� 3 - 4
Low volatility strategies�������������������������� 5 - 6
Monthly market review������������������������������� 7
Important information�������������������������������� 8
Call him Voldemort, Harry. Always use the proper name for things.
Fear of a name increases fear of the thing itself. - J.K. Rowling
Volatility. There, I said it…and appear no worse off in the doing. It's incredible
the fear that seems to come with its mere mention, but there is nothing to be
afraid of. In fact, if you are prepared for it, volatility can be a positive contributor
to your long-term financial well-being. The reason for this is that volatility,
if experienced in reasonable quantities, is actually critical to a healthy financial
market because it helps establish a much needed balance in the financial system.
A financial environment with moderate volatility separates the wheat from the
chaff, so investments that are poorly functioning go down in value, while ones
that are functioning well go up. A financial environment without appropriate
volatility sees all assets, good or bad, go up in value, which is unsustainable in
the long term.
Volatility seems to be the hardest word
2 Monthly Perspectives June 2016
Volatility seems to be the hardest word (cont’d)
Brad Simpson, Chief Wealth Strategist
The question that warrants due consideration is whether our
current environment is well balanced and in good health? A well-
functioning financial environment needs three key things:
If one of these components fails to function effectively, there is
usually a price correction leading to modest volatility. If all three
are severely impaired, as was the case during the Credit Crisis of
2008, the likelihood of a financial crisis is high because financial
markets are in their least effective state. During jubilant market
highs, investors are driven by the fear of missing out and tend to
think that markets can only go up. As a result, they are willing to
pay more for less. During manic market lows, however, investors
en masse are willing to pay less for more. But markets are not this
black and white; all good or all bad. A healthy financial system
works by striking a balance between the two extremes.
Cognitive diversity
1 Investors in a marketplace must have opposing
views on the value of underlying assets.
Full disclosure
2 Investors must have equal access to all available
information.
Rewards and penalties
3 Investors who have a view based on all available
information and get it wrong should lose money;
those who get it right should make money.
Achieving this balance is precisely what central banks, particularity
the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), want to orchestrate today. Years
of unconventional monetary policies, such as zero interest rates,
led to the rampant decline of cognitive diversity, and investors
began to run from one side of a proverbial boat to the other as the
term “risk on” or “risk off” entered the common investor lexicon.
This sort of thinking impaired the pricing mechanism of the market
itself where there were no good or bad investments just “risk
assets,” which moved with the whims of the masses shuffling back
and forth. The Fed’s interest rate increase in December 2015 and
the related volatility that followed in January and February 2016
should be seen as the Fed’s way of trying to inoculate the financial
system with volatility to achieve balance. Markets corrected, they
recovered and cognitive diversity has improved, resulting in fewer
investments moving in unison.
Years of unconventional monetary
policies led to the rampant decline
of cognitive diversity.
In the long term, we believe that high debt, full valuations,
decelerating earnings growth, central bank policy and geopolitical
risks will continue to act as sources of volatility. For the short
term, however, volatility seems to have tapered off due to some
recent positive trends. For instance, in the second week of May,
U.S. retail sales beat expectations. This was followed by a stream
of positive data for the U.S. economy with reports on housing,
industrial production, and consumer prices all suggesting that there
are many good things happening in the world’s biggest and most
important economy. According to TD Economics, this positive data
has not gone unnoticed by Fed officials, with plenty of hawkish
rhetoric heard soon after the release. Alongside the also hawkish
minutes from their April meeting, the Fed looks increasingly likely
to go ahead with another interest rate increase in the near future—
as long as data continues to cooperate and the global economy
remains out of the headlines.
The current lull in volatility offers an
opportunity for investors to make
portfolio adjustments.
With all this said, we feel that the current lull in volatility offers
an opportunity for investors to make portfolio adjustments. Speak
with you advisor about how you can prepare for a potential rise
in volatility. While there are a number of ways to construct and/or
make portfolio adjustments to protect capital and prosper during
periods of turbulence, we will consider three that are consistent
with our risk priority philosophy: ownership, low volatility and
conservative hedge fund strategies.
3 Monthly Perspectives June 2016
Own your risk
Chris Blake, CFA
Issuer
SP/TSX
(Canada)
SP 500
(USA)
Nasdaq
(USA)
Hang Seng
(Hong Kong)
FTSE 100
(United Kingdom)
Nikkei
(Japan)
Shanghai
Shenzhen 300
(China)
Energy 19.5% 7.2% 0.5% 7.1% 12.7% 0.4% 2.8%
Materials 12.4% 2.9% 0.5% - 6.6% 7.7% 5.9%
Industrials 8.0% 10.1% 4.5% 6.3% 6.7% 21.5% 14.8%
Consumer Discretionary 6.5% 12.5% 18.8% 2.8% 11.3% 19.3% 10.5%
Consumer Staples 4.4% 10.3% 5.7% 2.1% 19.8% 9.8% 6.1%
Health Care 1.0% 14.7% 14.4% - 9.9% 11.3% 5.6%
Financials 37.3% 16.2% 7.7% 55.1% 20.5% 5.9% 41.8%
Information Technology 2.9% 20.1% 46.5% 11.5% 1.5% 14.8% 7.6%
Telecommunication Services 5.5% 2.7% 1.2% 8.7% 6.4% 9.0% 0.6%
Utilities 2.4% 3.4% 0.1% 6.3% 4.7% 0.3% 4.3%
Figure 1: Composition of Major Indices Around the World
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at May 20, 2016.
One of the most tried and tested ways to manage volatility is to
make the philosophical decision to be an owner of businesses and
not get caught up in the manic gyrations of equity markets. In our
day to day business, we see a lot of Canadian investors’ portfolios,
and too infrequently we see ones based on ownership. Instead,
what we often see are portfolios heavily skewed towards Canadian
benchmarks. As a result, the portfolios are deeply tilted to holdings
in a few sectors: utilities, financial services, telecommunications,
and commodities (both materials and energy). These sectors are the
cornerstones of the Canadian equity market index. But you have to
ask yourself: Is this the optimal portfolio allocation that will allow
me to achieve my goals? Underlying that question is the question
of whether the goals and risks of the SP/TSX Composite Index
(SP/TSX) match your goals and your risk tolerance. In most cases
the answer is an unequivocal no.
A closer look at index risk
Equity indices can be thought of as imaginary portfolios that
represent the average performance of the stock market each day.
Indices are generally created using statistical measures designed to
find equities across sectors that are large, liquid and characteristic
of the market the index is replicating. Although that may sound
like an investor’s portfolio, they are quite different because indices
generally have many more equities in them, often running into the
hundreds (Dow Jones Industrials Index, with just 30 equities, is a
notable exception.)
For example, the SP/TSX is constructed of 234 individual equities
across all ten of the GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard)
sectors. However, the financial sector itself had a better than 37%
weight in the index as at May 20, 2016, and the combined weight
of energy and materials stocks was almost 32%. That’s almost 70%
allocated to just three sectors. Because these index averages are
quoted on the nightly news and referenced in the morning paper,
investors tend to focus on their performance and use them as a
yardstick (or benchmark) to measure the performance of their own
portfolios.
The investing world is driven by benchmarks. They are present
even when hidden by the cloak of an ETF, mutual fund or pension
portfolio. ETFs are often designed specifically to track indices, and
mutual fund managers are often given performance compensation
based at least in part on their fund’s performance relative to
some index or combination of indices. It should surprise no one
that a quantitative review recently published by the Globe  Mail
found that many fund managers had performance characteristics
suspiciously close to that of the indices against which they were
measured. The same is true of pension fund managers; they also
tend to be compensated relative to a benchmark so naturally they
are highly benchmark aware.
Speaking of benchmarks
As figure 1 illustrates, not all indices are created equal. In fact, the
differences in the composition of some of the major indices around
the world can be quite drastic. As an example, financial services
exposure varies from a low of just under 6% in Japan to a high of
over 55% in Hong Kong. Similarly, information technology exposure
varies from a low of less than a 3% weight in Toronto to a high of
a 46.5% weight in the U.S. Nasdaq 100. So why are these indices
so different? For the most part, the national indices are reflective
of the underlying economy. In Canada, our economy has a greater
reliance on resource extraction and so the combined weights of the
energy and materials sectors is almost 32% compared to an SP
500 Index (SP 500) weighting of a little over 10% and a Nasdaq
100 weighting of 1%.
A market index is simply a measure of
what the market has done, and does not
consider the investor’s goals.
These indices are not built as portfolios; they are built to be
representative of the underlying stock market that inevitably
tends to mirror the domestic economy in which it is situated.
These underlying differences are the key to the different returns of
4 Monthly Perspectives June 2016
Own your risk (cont’d)
Chris Blake, CFA
various indices over time, and can provide diversification benefits
to a well-constructed portfolio. However, individually they may be
inappropriate relative measures for most individual investors.
A market index is simply a measure of what the market has done,
and does not consider the investor’s goals. It is more appropriate
to measure the success of an investor’s portfolio against his or her
unique set of goals, not against an arbitrary benchmark that may
carry more risk than an investor wants or needs to take. Investors
who structure their portfolios to meet their individual goals and
preferences, such as diversification benefits, dividend income or
low volatility securities, and therefore deliberately deviate from the
sector allocation of market indices, must understand that those
indices may not be relevant benchmarks for them.
Geographic risk
This leads to our second observation about the many portfolios
we see: they tend to be overly concentrated in Canada. Similar
to the index that they mirror (mostly the SP/TSX) the portfolios
are vulnerable to all the macro-economic shocks that can hit the
domestic economy, and we don’t have to look back far to find the
perfect example. Canadian equities performed relatively poorly in
2014 and 2015, only picking up somewhat since the start of 2016.
The reason for the underperformance was clearly because the
Canadian economy has a high exposure to commodities. Foreign
investors reduced their exposure to commodities by reducing
exposure to Canada. Further, the financial sector was viewed as
vulnerable on the belief that weak commodity performance might
drive layoffs, impinging on consumer sentiment and finances,
which could result in loan defaults.
Diversification within the equity class would dampen such an
impact. That diversification should be across industry groups as well
as across geographies and currencies.
Currency: a portfolio risk or return enhancer?
Many investors have an aversion to investing outside of their home
country since their financial goals are most likely denominated in
domestic currency; investing outside their home country would
therefore add a layer of currency risk. While some investors mitigate
currency risk by sticking to the domestic market, currency can
actually be a driver of portfolio returns, thus helping meet long-
term goals. For example, let us look at the returns for a Canadian
investor under a few scenarios (figure 2).
In 2014 and 2015, not only did the SP 500 outperform the SP/
TSX but Canadian dollar denominated investment in the SP 500
provided investors with a significant added benefit. To date, 2016
has not worked out so well for Canadian investors who ventured
south of the border, both because the SP 500 has underperformed
the SP/TSX and because the Canadian currency has strengthened,
turning a meagre return for SP 500 investors into a loss in Canadian
dollars (CAD). Notwithstanding the lower CAD based returns in the
last few months, the point of diversification, both in terms of the
investment set and the potential benefit of currency diversification
can be seen in the last two lines of the table, which evaluate the
5- and 10-year performance metrics. Over the long term, currency is
more likely to be neutral than either a head or tail wind, depending
on the starting point.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. A: Annualized; TR: Total Return. As at May 20, 2016.
Figure 2: Currency Impact on Index Performance
Issuer
SP/TSX
Composite
Index
SP 500
Index (USD)
SP 500
Index (CAD)
2014 (TR) 10.55% 13.68% 24.24%
2015 (TR) -8.33% 1.37% 20.67%
January 1 to May 20, 2016 (TR) 8.25% 1.31% -3.79%
January 1, 2014 to May 20, 2016 (A) 4.04% 6.85% 16.42%
January 1, 2011 to March 31, 2016 (A) 3.04% 12.19% 18.02%
January 1, 2006 to May 20, 2016 (A) 4.69% 7.25% 8.41%
In an index such as the MSCI All Country World Index, which tracks
stocks from 23 developed and 23 developing markets covering
85% of the world’s investable universe, Canada had a mere 3.25%
weighting as at April 29, 2016. There are a lot of opportunities
outside this country and many leading global companies are
domiciled right next door in the United States, a country with a
52.7% weight in that index. Many investors can take advantage of
the ease with which a Canadian can invest in the U.S. market.
Risk should be thought of as risk of
failing to meet personal goals, not the
day-to-day volatility of stock prices and
performance of arbitrary indices.
Redefine your risk
Let’s face the facts, the primary objective of most investing is goal
realization: saving and earning a return so that goals can be met.
Given this objective, risk should be thought of as risk of failing
to meet these goals, not the day-to-day volatility of stock prices,
currencies and benchmark indices. Most investors understand that
a long-term approach to investing is important and the short-
term blips (whether up or down) tend to even out in the long run.
Adding diversification based on the concept of company ownership
and exposure to different currencies and geographies can not only
reduce some of that daily volatility, but be a source of return to help
meet investment goals. It’s time to stop looking at our portfolios
and how they fare relative to arbitrary indices that are not designed
to meet our goals and instead embrace a goals-focused approach
to investing.
5 Monthly Perspectives June 2016
Low volatility strategies
Christopher Lo, CFA; Brad Simpson
Figure 3: SP 500 Index Equity Returns and Risk
Return
Standard
Deviation
Beta vs.
Market
Sharpe
Ratio
Market Neutral 4.62% 3.06% 0.07 0.74
Long/Short Equity 8.07% 9.24% 0.48 0.63
Global Equities 6.13% 15.72% 1.00 0.31
Canadian Equities 6.56% 20.98% 1.12 0.30
Global Bonds 4.70% 5.47% 0.08 0.43
Source: Bloomberg and Morningstar Direct. Annualized returns from January 1, 1997 -
December 31, 2015. Market Neutral = HFRI Market Neutral Index; Long/Short Equity = HFRI
Equity Market Hedge Index; Global Equities = MSCI World Gross Return Index; Canadian
Equities = SP/TSX Composite Total Return Index; Global Bonds = BofAML Global Broad
Market Total Return Index. All index returns are in USD. Cash equivalent for the Sharpe ratio is
BofAML US Treasury Bill 3 Month Total Return Index and Beta is measured against the MSCI
World Gross Return Index.
Figure 4: Hedge Fund Volatility and Returns
It is safe to say that all investors enjoy the feeling of making a
profitable return. On the opposite side of the spectrum—and
with greater magnitude—they dislike the feeling of loss that
comes with experiencing volatility in their portfolio. There is a
natural assumption that there is a positive relationship between
an investment's potential level of volatility and its expected return.
Meaning that investments deemed to be more volatile should carry
with them the potential for greater returns, after all, an investor
should be compensated for taking on risk. Not surprisingly, financial
academics have analyzed historical stock prices to find supporting
evidence of this correlation. What is surprising, however, is that
most of the research suggests this may not be true over a full
market cycle.
Source: TD Asset Management, Standard  Poor’s. Annualized returns on SP 500 Index
constituents are from August 1978 through December 2014. Quintiles represent equally-
weighted portfolios of 100 stocks each, constructed monthly from equities sorted by trailing
36 months standard deviation. For illustrative purposes only.
Figure 3 illustrates this important point as it considers the historical
risk-return pattern of the constituents of the SP 500 Index from
August 1978 through December 2014. Each bar represents the
annualized return on a portfolio of 100 stocks from the index.
Each portfolio has been equally weighted and constructed on the
basis of trailing 36 months standard deviation (standard deviation is
often used to gauge an investment's volatility because it quantifies
how much a series of numbers varies). The data shows that the
most volatile equities (riskiest) have delivered lower average returns
over the long run while less volatile equities performed better.
Low volatility equity portfolios
This sort of evidence has led to the development of low volatility
strategies, such as low volatility equity portfolios. TD Asset
Management is a pioneer in the management of low volatility
portfolios having launched its first low volatility fund, the TD
Emerald Low Volatility Canadian Equity Pooled Fund Trust on
September 11, 2009. Seven and a half years after its launch, the
strategy has delivered strong risk-adjusted returns. Its success
spurred the subsequent launch of other low volatility equity funds
for institutional and individual investors.
Conservative hedge funds
Another way to potentially reduce volatility is through the prudent
use of conservative hedge funds, particularly long/short equity and
market neutral strategies.
Historically, stocks in general have had a high level of correlation
to the state of the overall economy, while long/short and market
neutral strategies have had a lower level of correlation to equity
markets. This means they have shown the tendency to move in
a different direction than equity markets. As such, adding a long/
short or market neutral strategy to a traditional portfolio can act
as a diversifier and potentially lead to a higher return and a lower
level of volatility. As illustrated in the table below, over the past
19 years, hedge funds have had a similar return as stocks but
with significantly less volatility as measured by standard deviation.
The table illustrates the returns and volatility of equities and bonds
compared to long/short and market neutral strategies from 1997
to 2015.
Long/short funds
1 The fund purchases undervalued stocks and
sells-short overvalued stocks.
Market neutral funds
2 The fund also employs a long/short strategy;
however, the differentiating factor is that the
manager tries to neutralize market volatility
by limiting the exposure to the broad market,
instead relying on security selection to add value.
0
3
6
9
12
15
Safest Moderate Risk Riskiest
AnnualizedReturn(%)
6 Monthly Perspectives June 2016
Low volatility strategies (cont’d)
Christopher Lo, CFA; Brad Simpson
HFRI Market Neutral Index HFRI Equity Market Hedge (Long/Short) MSCI World ex Canada
Median of Returns -0.8% -7.0% -19.0%
Mean of Returns 1.5% -10.9% -23.8%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Morningstar Direct. Returns are reported in U.S. dollars and are not annualized.
As a further illustration of the downside protection offered by
hedge funds, the following chart highlights the returns of global
equity markets versus long/short and market neutral strategies
during periods of extreme equity market volatility. In each of the
periods, the losses of the hedge funds were less than that of the
traditional long-only equity markets. When combined with long-
only investments, a portfolio incorporating alternative investments
has the potential to deliver higher risk adjusted returns and a
“smoother” return. Despite their apparent appeal, they are not an
investment suitable for everyone. A hedge fund is an investment fund
that is typically available to institutional and accredited individual
investors. They are similar to mutual funds in that investments are
pooled and professionally managed but differ in that a hedge fund
has far more flexibility in its investment strategies. This flexibility will
vary depending on the strategy, which could incorporate the use of
short positions, leverage and derivatives.
Figure 5: Periods of Extreme Equity Market Downturns
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
MSCI World ex Canada
HFRI Equity Market Hedge (Long/Short)
HFRI Market Neutral Index
Apr 2011 -
Sep 2011
Apr 2010 -
June 2010
Oct 2007 -
Feb 2009
Mar 2002 -
Sep 2002
Mar 2000 -
Sep 2001
Jun 1998 -
Aug 1998
Periods of Extreme Equity Market Downturns
Return
Depending on the specific strategies employed, hedge funds may
provide investors with an investment that has a relatively low
correlation to traditional asset classes and can offer potential for
enhanced returns or capital protection. Investors should be aware
that hedge funds are generally less regulated when compared to
mutual funds, and have minimum investment periods (lock-ups)
and notice periods for redemptions.
In conclusion, while including low volatility strategies in a
portfolio can provide additional diversification, and potentially
reduce portfolio volatility and enhance returns, some alternative
investments, such as hedge funds, may not be appropriate for every
investor. The allocation to these alternative investments depends
upon your investment goals, risk tolerance, time horizon and
investment sophistication. Your advisor can help determine if low
volatility equity portfolios or alternative investments should be part
of your portfolio.
7 Monthly Perspectives June 2016
Monthly market review
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
Canadian Indices ($CA) Return Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years
SP/TSX Composite (TR) 44,751 1.00 10.24 9.46 -3.31 6.77 3.43 4.81 7.50
SP/TSX Composite (PR) 14,066 0.82 9.37 8.12 -6.32 3.60 0.38 1.82 5.05
SP/TSX 60 (TR) 2,110 0.84 9.58 8.72 -3.16 7.37 3.88 5.11 8.04
SP/TSX SmallCap (TR) 884 -0.30 20.31 21.56 0.60 4.29 -2.30 1.15 -
U.S. Indices ($US) Return Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years
SP 500 (TR) 3,958 1.80 9.12 3.57 1.72 11.06 11.67 7.41 7.88
SP 500 (PR) 2,097 1.53 8.53 2.59 -0.49 8.74 9.29 5.14 5.88
Dow Jones Industrial (PR) 17,787 0.08 7.69 2.08 -1.24 5.57 7.19 4.76 5.91
NASDAQ Composite (PR) 4,948 3.62 8.56 -1.19 -2.41 12.71 11.78 8.55 7.15
Russell 2000 (TR) 5,556 2.25 12.15 2.28 -5.97 6.93 7.86 6.27 7.39
U.S. Indices ($CA) Return Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years
SP 500 (TR) 5,185 6.26 5.71 -1.98 6.89 20.17 18.61 9.28 7.64
SP 500 (PR) 2,747 5.99 5.13 -2.90 4.56 17.67 16.08 6.97 5.65
Dow Jones Industrial (PR) 23,300 4.47 4.32 -3.39 3.78 14.24 13.86 6.58 5.68
NASDAQ Composite (PR) 6,482 8.16 5.16 -6.48 2.55 21.96 18.73 10.43 6.91
Russell 2000 (TR) 7,277 6.74 8.64 -3.20 -1.19 15.70 14.57 8.12 7.16
MSCI Indices ($US) Total Return Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years
World 6,495 0.65 9.33 2.11 -3.39 7.05 7.13 5.13 6.28
EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) 6,332 -0.78 8.94 -0.75 -9.24 2.45 2.58 2.40 4.58
EM (Emerging Markets) 1,680 -3.71 9.67 2.40 -17.33 -4.62 -4.50 3.44 5.08
MSCI Indices ($CA) Total Return Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years
World 8,508 5.07 5.90 -3.36 1.52 15.84 13.80 6.96 6.04
EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) 8,294 3.57 5.53 -6.07 -4.63 10.85 8.96 4.18 4.35
EM (Emerging Markets) 2,200 0.51 6.24 -3.08 -13.12 3.21 1.44 5.23 4.85
Currency Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years
Canadian Dollar ($US/$CA) 76.34 -4.20 3.23 5.66 -4.84 -7.58 -5.85 -1.71 0.22
Regional Indices (Native Currency)
Price Return
Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years
London FTSE 100 (UK) 6,231 -0.18 2.19 -0.18 -10.79 -1.82 0.79 0.85 2.57
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 20,815 -1.20 8.91 -5.02 -24.10 -2.41 -2.55 2.76 3.12
Nikkei 225 (Japan) 17,235 3.41 7.54 -9.45 -16.19 7.76 12.20 1.09 -1.20
Benchmark Bond Yields 3 Month 5 Year 10 Year 30 Year
Government of Canada Yields 0.55 0.88 1.51 2.08
U.S. Treasury Yields 0.23 1.30 1.83 2.68
Canadian Bond Indices ($CA) Total Return Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years
FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index 1017.08 0.91 1.62 2.24 2.81 4.27 4.82 5.37
FTSE TMX Canadian Short Term Bond Index (1-5 Years) 693.82 0.35 0.56 0.63 1.38 2.39 2.62 3.86
FTSE TMX Canadian Mid Term Bond Index (5-10) 116.58 1.20 1.60 2.30 3.87 4.90 5.63 6.16
FTSE TMX Long Term Bond Index (10+ Years) 1621.30 1.42 3.06 4.37 3.96 6.40 7.64 7.28
Sources: TD Securities Inc., Bloomberg Finance L.P. TR: total return, PR: price return. As at May 31, 2016.
8 Monthly Perspectives June 2016
The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable. Where such statements
are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties, they are not guaranteed
to be accurate or complete. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and
do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does
not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, trading, or tax
strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. TD
Wealth, The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities are not liable for any
errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
Certain statements in this document may contain forward-looking statements (“FLS”) that
are predictive in nature and may include words such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”,
“believes”, “estimates” and similar forward-looking expressions or negative versions thereof.
FLS are based on current expectations and projections about future general economic, political
and relevant market factors, such as interest and foreign exchange rates, equity and capital
markets, the general business environment, assuming no changes to tax or other laws or
government regulation or catastrophic events. Expectations and projections about future
events are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, which may be unforeseeable. Such
expectations and projections may be incorrect in the future. FLS are not guarantees of future
performance. Actual events could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any FLS.
A number of important factors including those factors set out above can contribute to these
digressions. You should avoid placing any reliance on FLS.
All credit products are subject to credit approval and various terms and conditions. Nothing
contained herein should be construed as an offer or commitment to lend by the Toronto-
Dominion Bank.
Full disclosures for all companies covered by TD Securities Inc. can be viewed at
https://www.tdsresearch.com/equities/welcome.important.disclosure.action
Research Ratings
Overall Risk Rating in order of increasing risk: Low (7.3% of coverage universe),
Medium (35.4%), High (42.0%), Speculative (15.4%)
ActionListBUY:Thestock’stotalreturnisexpectedtoexceedaminimumof15%,onarisk-adjusted
basis, over the next 12 months and it is a top pick in the Analyst’s sector. BUY: The stock’s total
returnisexpectedtoexceedaminimumof15%,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12months.
SPECULATIVE BUY: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 30% over the next 12
months; however, there is material event risk associated with the investment that could result
in significant loss. HOLD: The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and 15%,
on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months. TENDER: Investors are advised to tender
their shares to a specific offer for the company’s securities. REDUCE: The stock’s total return
is expected to be negative over the next 12 months.
Research Report Dissemination Policy: TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. makes its research
products available in electronic format. These research products are posted to our proprietary
Important information
websites for all eligible clients to access by password and we distribute the information to
our sales personnel who then may distribute it to their retail clients under the appropriate
circumstances either by e-mail, fax or regular mail. No recipient may pass on to any other
person, or reproduce by any means, the information contained in this report without our prior
written consent.
Analyst Certification:The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for
this report hereby certify that (i) the recommendations and technical opinions expressed in the
research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about any and all of the
securities or issuers discussed herein, and (ii) no part of the research analyst’s compensation
was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the provision of specific recommendations
or views expressed by the research analyst in the research report.
Conflicts of Interest: The Portfolio Advice  Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for
this report may own securities of the issuer(s) discussed in this report. As with most other
employees, the analyst(s) who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other
factors) the overall profitability of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. and its affiliates, which includes
the overall profitability of investment banking services, however TD Waterhouse Canada Inc.
does not compensate its analysts based on specific investment banking transactions.
Mutual Fund Disclosure: Commissions, trailing commissions, performance fees, management
fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read
the prospectus, which contains detailed investment information, before investing.
The indicated rates of return (other than for each money market fund) are the historical
annual compounded total returns for the period indicated including changes in unit value and
reinvestment of distributions. The indicated rate of return for each money market fund is an
annualized historical yield based on the seven-day period ended as indicated and annualized
in the case of effective yield by compounding the seven day return and does not represent
an actual one year return. The indicated rates of return do not take into account sales,
redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that
would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not covered by the Canada Deposit Insurance
Corporation or by any other government deposit insurer and are not guaranteed or insured.
Their values change frequently. There can be no assurances that a money market fund will be
able to maintain its net asset value per unit at a constant amount or that the full amount of
your investment will be returned to you. Past performance may not be repeated.
Corporate Disclosure: TD Wealth represents the products and services offered by
TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. (Member – Canadian Investor Protection Fund), TD
Waterhouse Private Investment Counsel Inc., TD Wealth Private Banking (offered by
The Toronto-Dominion Bank) and TD Wealth Private Trust (offered by The Canada Trust
Company).
The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research team is part of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc., a
subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank.
Trade-mark Disclosures: FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc. (“FTDCM”), FTSE
International Limited (“FTSE”), the London Stock Exchange Group companies (the
“Exchange”) or TSX INC. (“TSX” and together with FTDCM, FTSE and the Exchange, the
“Licensor Parties”). The Licensor Parties make no warranty or representation whatsoever,
expressly or impliedly, either as to the results to be obtained from the use of the index/indices
(“the Index/Indices”) and/or the figure at which the said Index/Indices stand at any particular
time on any particular day or otherwise. The Index/Indices are compiled and calculated by
FTDCM and all copyright in the Index/Indices values and constituent lists vests in FTDCM. The
Licensor Parties shall not be liable (whether in negligence or otherwise) to any person for any
error in the Index/Indices and the Licensor Parties shall not be under any obligation to advise
any person of any error therein.
“TMX” is a trade mark of TSX Inc. and is used under licence. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the
London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTDCM under licence.
Bloomberg and Bloomberg.com are trademarks and service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P.,
a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved.
TD Securities is a trade-mark of The Toronto-Dominion Bank representing TD Securities Inc.,
TD Securities (USA) LLC, TD Securities Limited and certain corporate and investment banking
activities of The Toronto-Dominion Bank.
All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
®The TD logo and other trade-marks are the property of
The Toronto-Dominion Bank.
Percentage of subject companies under
each rating category—BUY (covering
Action List BUY, BUY and Spec. BUY
ratings), HOLD and REDUCE (covering
TENDER and REDUCE ratings).
As at June 1, 2016.
Distribution of Research Ratings
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
BUY HOLD REDUCE
REDUCE
5%
BUY
57%
HOLD
38%
61%
34%
4%
Percentage of subject companies
within each of the three categories
(BUY, HOLD and REDUCE) for which
TD Securities Inc. has provided
investment banking services within the
last 12 months.
As at June 1, 2016.
Investment Banking Services Provided
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
BUY HOLD REDUCE
61%
34%
4%

More Related Content

What's hot

Michael Durante Western Reserve WRHE 2Q04 letter
Michael Durante Western Reserve WRHE 2Q04 letterMichael Durante Western Reserve WRHE 2Q04 letter
Michael Durante Western Reserve WRHE 2Q04 letterMichael Durante
 
Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313
Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313
Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313Putnam Investments
 
Measuring the market
Measuring the marketMeasuring the market
Measuring the marketSocial MEDIA
 
Michael Durante Western Reserve research compilation
Michael Durante Western Reserve  research compilationMichael Durante Western Reserve  research compilation
Michael Durante Western Reserve research compilationMichael Durante
 
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18Patrick Thuemmel
 
Rich Ralston – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 3, Issue 10
Rich Ralston – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 3, Issue 10Rich Ralston – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 3, Issue 10
Rich Ralston – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 3, Issue 10Proactive Advisor Magazine
 
Rational Investing
Rational InvestingRational Investing
Rational Investingdkeogh
 
EM Value - Ready to Emerge
EM Value - Ready to EmergeEM Value - Ready to Emerge
EM Value - Ready to EmergeAlex Dumortier
 
Market Volitility
Market VolitilityMarket Volitility
Market Volitilityguest31bc
 
Alexa, Invest in Fixed Income
Alexa, Invest in Fixed IncomeAlexa, Invest in Fixed Income
Alexa, Invest in Fixed IncomeAdam Phillips
 
Rethink The Way You Invest
Rethink The Way You InvestRethink The Way You Invest
Rethink The Way You Investpolariswuser
 
Rational Investing in Irrational TImes
Rational Investing in Irrational TImesRational Investing in Irrational TImes
Rational Investing in Irrational TImesssuarez
 
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013Fasanara Capital ltd
 
Potential for vulnerability in MLPS
Potential for vulnerability in MLPSPotential for vulnerability in MLPS
Potential for vulnerability in MLPSGE 94
 
Allocator November 2010
Allocator November 2010Allocator November 2010
Allocator November 2010bruno_nautilus
 
Asset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset Mgrs
Asset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset MgrsAsset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset Mgrs
Asset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset MgrsKevin Cheng, CFA
 

What's hot (19)

Michael Durante Western Reserve WRHE 2Q04 letter
Michael Durante Western Reserve WRHE 2Q04 letterMichael Durante Western Reserve WRHE 2Q04 letter
Michael Durante Western Reserve WRHE 2Q04 letter
 
Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313
Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313
Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313
 
Measuring the market
Measuring the marketMeasuring the market
Measuring the market
 
Michael Durante Western Reserve research compilation
Michael Durante Western Reserve  research compilationMichael Durante Western Reserve  research compilation
Michael Durante Western Reserve research compilation
 
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
 
Rich Ralston – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 3, Issue 10
Rich Ralston – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 3, Issue 10Rich Ralston – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 3, Issue 10
Rich Ralston – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 3, Issue 10
 
Rational Investing
Rational InvestingRational Investing
Rational Investing
 
EM Value - Ready to Emerge
EM Value - Ready to EmergeEM Value - Ready to Emerge
EM Value - Ready to Emerge
 
Market Volitility
Market VolitilityMarket Volitility
Market Volitility
 
Alexa, Invest in Fixed Income
Alexa, Invest in Fixed IncomeAlexa, Invest in Fixed Income
Alexa, Invest in Fixed Income
 
Rethink The Way You Invest
Rethink The Way You InvestRethink The Way You Invest
Rethink The Way You Invest
 
Rational Investing in Irrational TImes
Rational Investing in Irrational TImesRational Investing in Irrational TImes
Rational Investing in Irrational TImes
 
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook | February 1st 2013
 
PMCWeeklyReview_050815
PMCWeeklyReview_050815PMCWeeklyReview_050815
PMCWeeklyReview_050815
 
Potential for vulnerability in MLPS
Potential for vulnerability in MLPSPotential for vulnerability in MLPS
Potential for vulnerability in MLPS
 
Allocator November 2010
Allocator November 2010Allocator November 2010
Allocator November 2010
 
otm-pham0914
otm-pham0914otm-pham0914
otm-pham0914
 
2018 01-25 hm
2018 01-25 hm2018 01-25 hm
2018 01-25 hm
 
Asset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset Mgrs
Asset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset MgrsAsset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset Mgrs
Asset Managers - Recession risks, Trust Banks & Asset Mgrs
 

Viewers also liked

El fin de una era - El Periódico de Aragón
El fin de una era - El Periódico de AragónEl fin de una era - El Periódico de Aragón
El fin de una era - El Periódico de AragónEAE Business School
 
MSDS for DOWTHERM™ MX Heat Transfer Fluid
MSDS for DOWTHERM™ MX Heat Transfer FluidMSDS for DOWTHERM™ MX Heat Transfer Fluid
MSDS for DOWTHERM™ MX Heat Transfer FluidMarcellus Drilling News
 
Skinner curriculum washington-post-1977-3pgs-edu
Skinner curriculum washington-post-1977-3pgs-eduSkinner curriculum washington-post-1977-3pgs-edu
Skinner curriculum washington-post-1977-3pgs-eduRareBooksnRecords
 
Conventions
ConventionsConventions
Conventionsconkin2
 
Un viitor pentru_tineret - aivanhov
Un viitor pentru_tineret - aivanhovUn viitor pentru_tineret - aivanhov
Un viitor pentru_tineret - aivanhovMarius Vancioc
 
AndroidアプリのUI/UX改善例
AndroidアプリのUI/UX改善例AndroidアプリのUI/UX改善例
AndroidアプリのUI/UX改善例Kenichi Kambara
 
Segunda Guerra Mundial
Segunda Guerra MundialSegunda Guerra Mundial
Segunda Guerra MundialLupita Peralta
 
Resumen regiones naturales de Colombia
Resumen regiones naturales de ColombiaResumen regiones naturales de Colombia
Resumen regiones naturales de ColombiaMARILUZ SUÁREZ DURÁN
 
Scot Secure 2016
Scot Secure 2016Scot Secure 2016
Scot Secure 2016Ray Bugg
 
Sparking Innovation - Gifted Kids, Creativity, and Code
Sparking Innovation - Gifted Kids, Creativity, and CodeSparking Innovation - Gifted Kids, Creativity, and Code
Sparking Innovation - Gifted Kids, Creativity, and CodeBrian Housand
 
Gr trav f. risk cv s.metabolique
Gr trav f. risk cv s.metaboliqueGr trav f. risk cv s.metabolique
Gr trav f. risk cv s.metaboliquesfa_angeiologie
 
Quy trinh lap dat tram bts 3900 huawei
Quy trinh lap dat tram bts 3900 huaweiQuy trinh lap dat tram bts 3900 huawei
Quy trinh lap dat tram bts 3900 huaweiBang Nguyen Van
 

Viewers also liked (17)

The Evolving Content Market
The Evolving Content MarketThe Evolving Content Market
The Evolving Content Market
 
El fin de una era - El Periódico de Aragón
El fin de una era - El Periódico de AragónEl fin de una era - El Periódico de Aragón
El fin de una era - El Periódico de Aragón
 
MSDS for DOWTHERM™ MX Heat Transfer Fluid
MSDS for DOWTHERM™ MX Heat Transfer FluidMSDS for DOWTHERM™ MX Heat Transfer Fluid
MSDS for DOWTHERM™ MX Heat Transfer Fluid
 
Skinner curriculum washington-post-1977-3pgs-edu
Skinner curriculum washington-post-1977-3pgs-eduSkinner curriculum washington-post-1977-3pgs-edu
Skinner curriculum washington-post-1977-3pgs-edu
 
1
11
1
 
Conventions
ConventionsConventions
Conventions
 
Un viitor pentru_tineret - aivanhov
Un viitor pentru_tineret - aivanhovUn viitor pentru_tineret - aivanhov
Un viitor pentru_tineret - aivanhov
 
Integradora 1 INTB3_LMCC
Integradora 1 INTB3_LMCCIntegradora 1 INTB3_LMCC
Integradora 1 INTB3_LMCC
 
Horario de clases
Horario de clasesHorario de clases
Horario de clases
 
AndroidアプリのUI/UX改善例
AndroidアプリのUI/UX改善例AndroidアプリのUI/UX改善例
AndroidアプリのUI/UX改善例
 
Segunda Guerra Mundial
Segunda Guerra MundialSegunda Guerra Mundial
Segunda Guerra Mundial
 
Resumen regiones naturales de Colombia
Resumen regiones naturales de ColombiaResumen regiones naturales de Colombia
Resumen regiones naturales de Colombia
 
Scot Secure 2016
Scot Secure 2016Scot Secure 2016
Scot Secure 2016
 
Sparking Innovation - Gifted Kids, Creativity, and Code
Sparking Innovation - Gifted Kids, Creativity, and CodeSparking Innovation - Gifted Kids, Creativity, and Code
Sparking Innovation - Gifted Kids, Creativity, and Code
 
Gr trav f. risk cv s.metabolique
Gr trav f. risk cv s.metaboliqueGr trav f. risk cv s.metabolique
Gr trav f. risk cv s.metabolique
 
Quy trinh lap dat tram bts 3900 huawei
Quy trinh lap dat tram bts 3900 huaweiQuy trinh lap dat tram bts 3900 huawei
Quy trinh lap dat tram bts 3900 huawei
 
Bcvtvn q1 2015
Bcvtvn q1 2015Bcvtvn q1 2015
Bcvtvn q1 2015
 

Similar to Volatility strategies for uncertain times

8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...
8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...
8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...Solid Rock Wealth Management
 
10 key trends changing investment management
10 key trends changing investment management10 key trends changing investment management
10 key trends changing investment managementtessat97
 
Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?
Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?
Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?Susan Langdon
 
The Advisory_March2016
The Advisory_March2016The Advisory_March2016
The Advisory_March2016Jim Tyson
 
Market Perspective - January 2019
Market Perspective - January 2019Market Perspective - January 2019
Market Perspective - January 2019Mark Biegel
 
Robert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutions
Robert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutionsRobert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutions
Robert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutionsPutnam Investments
 
Rules of Thumb for a Volatile Market
Rules of Thumb for a Volatile MarketRules of Thumb for a Volatile Market
Rules of Thumb for a Volatile MarketMarqus J Freeman
 
Jeff Pesta, LUTCF – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 5 Issue 11
Jeff Pesta, LUTCF – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 5 Issue 11Jeff Pesta, LUTCF – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 5 Issue 11
Jeff Pesta, LUTCF – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 5 Issue 11Proactive Advisor Magazine
 
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital Associates
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital AssociatesPursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital Associates
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital AssociatesRobUgiansky
 
Why Global Diversification Matters By Anthony Davidow Ap.docx
Why Global Diversification Matters  By Anthony Davidow  Ap.docxWhy Global Diversification Matters  By Anthony Davidow  Ap.docx
Why Global Diversification Matters By Anthony Davidow Ap.docxgauthierleppington
 
Power of proactivity
Power of proactivityPower of proactivity
Power of proactivitydhess0
 
AIAR Winter 2015 - Henry Ma Adaptive Invest Approach
AIAR Winter 2015 - Henry Ma Adaptive Invest ApproachAIAR Winter 2015 - Henry Ma Adaptive Invest Approach
AIAR Winter 2015 - Henry Ma Adaptive Invest ApproachHenry Ma
 
Why Emerging Managers Now? - Infusion Global Partners Whitepaper
Why Emerging Managers Now? - Infusion Global Partners WhitepaperWhy Emerging Managers Now? - Infusion Global Partners Whitepaper
Why Emerging Managers Now? - Infusion Global Partners WhitepaperAndrei Filippov
 
Putnam Equity Income Fund Q&A Q2 2013
Putnam Equity Income Fund Q&A Q2 2013Putnam Equity Income Fund Q&A Q2 2013
Putnam Equity Income Fund Q&A Q2 2013Putnam Investments
 
BMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINAL
BMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINALBMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINAL
BMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINALAdam Phillips
 

Similar to Volatility strategies for uncertain times (20)

8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...
8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...
8 Threats To Portfolio Performance | A Series Of Wealth Guide by Solid Rock W...
 
10 key trends changing investment management
10 key trends changing investment management10 key trends changing investment management
10 key trends changing investment management
 
Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?
Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?
Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?
 
The Advisory_March2016
The Advisory_March2016The Advisory_March2016
The Advisory_March2016
 
Market Perspective - January 2019
Market Perspective - January 2019Market Perspective - January 2019
Market Perspective - January 2019
 
Robert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutions
Robert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutionsRobert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutions
Robert L. Reynolds: New thinking, new solutions
 
Rules of Thumb for a Volatile Market
Rules of Thumb for a Volatile MarketRules of Thumb for a Volatile Market
Rules of Thumb for a Volatile Market
 
Financial Synergies | Q2 2018 Newsletter
Financial Synergies | Q2 2018 NewsletterFinancial Synergies | Q2 2018 Newsletter
Financial Synergies | Q2 2018 Newsletter
 
Jeff Pesta, LUTCF – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 5 Issue 11
Jeff Pesta, LUTCF – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 5 Issue 11Jeff Pesta, LUTCF – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 5 Issue 11
Jeff Pesta, LUTCF – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 5 Issue 11
 
Q1 2013 Newsletter
Q1 2013 NewsletterQ1 2013 Newsletter
Q1 2013 Newsletter
 
The Patience Principle
The Patience PrincipleThe Patience Principle
The Patience Principle
 
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital Associates
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital AssociatesPursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital Associates
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital Associates
 
Why Global Diversification Matters By Anthony Davidow Ap.docx
Why Global Diversification Matters  By Anthony Davidow  Ap.docxWhy Global Diversification Matters  By Anthony Davidow  Ap.docx
Why Global Diversification Matters By Anthony Davidow Ap.docx
 
Monthly Perspectives - Strange Days - May 2016
Monthly Perspectives - Strange Days - May 2016Monthly Perspectives - Strange Days - May 2016
Monthly Perspectives - Strange Days - May 2016
 
Power of proactivity
Power of proactivityPower of proactivity
Power of proactivity
 
AIAR Winter 2015 - Henry Ma Adaptive Invest Approach
AIAR Winter 2015 - Henry Ma Adaptive Invest ApproachAIAR Winter 2015 - Henry Ma Adaptive Invest Approach
AIAR Winter 2015 - Henry Ma Adaptive Invest Approach
 
Why Emerging Managers Now? - Infusion Global Partners Whitepaper
Why Emerging Managers Now? - Infusion Global Partners WhitepaperWhy Emerging Managers Now? - Infusion Global Partners Whitepaper
Why Emerging Managers Now? - Infusion Global Partners Whitepaper
 
Dr. Αvi Sharon, ocin22
Dr. Αvi Sharon, ocin22Dr. Αvi Sharon, ocin22
Dr. Αvi Sharon, ocin22
 
Putnam Equity Income Fund Q&A Q2 2013
Putnam Equity Income Fund Q&A Q2 2013Putnam Equity Income Fund Q&A Q2 2013
Putnam Equity Income Fund Q&A Q2 2013
 
BMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINAL
BMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINALBMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINAL
BMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINAL
 

More from TD Wealth Private Investment Advice

More from TD Wealth Private Investment Advice (18)

Td Observation - Ontario Housing
Td Observation - Ontario HousingTd Observation - Ontario Housing
Td Observation - Ontario Housing
 
2017 Budget
2017 Budget2017 Budget
2017 Budget
 
Straight Forward - Winter 2017
Straight Forward - Winter 2017Straight Forward - Winter 2017
Straight Forward - Winter 2017
 
Return On Investment - Winter 2017
Return On Investment - Winter 2017Return On Investment - Winter 2017
Return On Investment - Winter 2017
 
Current Perspectives - US Election
Current Perspectives - US ElectionCurrent Perspectives - US Election
Current Perspectives - US Election
 
Monetary Policy Monitor
Monetary Policy MonitorMonetary Policy Monitor
Monetary Policy Monitor
 
Monthly Perspectives - Geopolitics - October 2016
Monthly Perspectives - Geopolitics - October 2016Monthly Perspectives - Geopolitics - October 2016
Monthly Perspectives - Geopolitics - October 2016
 
Straight Forward Autumn 2016
Straight Forward Autumn 2016Straight Forward Autumn 2016
Straight Forward Autumn 2016
 
Return On Investment - Autumn 2016
Return On Investment - Autumn 2016Return On Investment - Autumn 2016
Return On Investment - Autumn 2016
 
Regional Housing Aug 2016
Regional Housing Aug 2016Regional Housing Aug 2016
Regional Housing Aug 2016
 
Monthly Perspectives - Politics - August 2016
Monthly Perspectives - Politics - August 2016Monthly Perspectives - Politics - August 2016
Monthly Perspectives - Politics - August 2016
 
Return On Investment - Summer 2016
Return On Investment - Summer 2016Return On Investment - Summer 2016
Return On Investment - Summer 2016
 
Brexit TDAM Perspective - Bruce Cooper
Brexit TDAM Perspective - Bruce CooperBrexit TDAM Perspective - Bruce Cooper
Brexit TDAM Perspective - Bruce Cooper
 
News Release - Zajac Nights - Raising the Bar Award
News Release - Zajac Nights - Raising the Bar AwardNews Release - Zajac Nights - Raising the Bar Award
News Release - Zajac Nights - Raising the Bar Award
 
TD - Perspective buyer gridlock in Toronto and Vancouver
TD - Perspective buyer gridlock in Toronto and VancouverTD - Perspective buyer gridlock in Toronto and Vancouver
TD - Perspective buyer gridlock in Toronto and Vancouver
 
Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent
Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per centBank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent
Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent
 
Return On Investment - Spring 2016
Return On Investment - Spring 2016Return On Investment - Spring 2016
Return On Investment - Spring 2016
 
Straight Forward - Spring 2016
Straight Forward - Spring 2016Straight Forward - Spring 2016
Straight Forward - Spring 2016
 

Recently uploaded

Log your LOA pain with Pension Lab's brilliant campaign
Log your LOA pain with Pension Lab's brilliant campaignLog your LOA pain with Pension Lab's brilliant campaign
Log your LOA pain with Pension Lab's brilliant campaignHenry Tapper
 
20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf
20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf
20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdfAdnet Communications
 
Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptx
Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptxDividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptx
Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptxanshikagoel52
 
Call US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure service
Call US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure serviceCall US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure service
Call US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure servicePooja Nehwal
 
06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf
06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf
06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdfFinTech Belgium
 
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptxFinTech Belgium
 
(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...ranjana rawat
 
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur EscortsHigh Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escortsranjana rawat
 
fca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdf
fca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdffca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdf
fca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdfHenry Tapper
 
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School SpiritInstant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spiritegoetzinger
 
Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...
Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...
Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...ssifa0344
 
High Class Call Girls Nashik Maya 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Nashik
High Class Call Girls Nashik Maya 7001305949 Independent Escort Service NashikHigh Class Call Girls Nashik Maya 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Nashik
High Class Call Girls Nashik Maya 7001305949 Independent Escort Service NashikCall Girls in Nagpur High Profile
 
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptxFinTech Belgium
 
letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...
letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...
letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...Henry Tapper
 
Malad Call Girl in Services 9892124323 | ₹,4500 With Room Free Delivery
Malad Call Girl in Services  9892124323 | ₹,4500 With Room Free DeliveryMalad Call Girl in Services  9892124323 | ₹,4500 With Room Free Delivery
Malad Call Girl in Services 9892124323 | ₹,4500 With Room Free DeliveryPooja Nehwal
 
VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...Call Girls in Nagpur High Profile
 
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...ranjana rawat
 
Call Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur EscortsCall Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escortsranjana rawat
 
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130Suhani Kapoor
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Log your LOA pain with Pension Lab's brilliant campaign
Log your LOA pain with Pension Lab's brilliant campaignLog your LOA pain with Pension Lab's brilliant campaign
Log your LOA pain with Pension Lab's brilliant campaign
 
20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf
20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf
20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf
 
Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptx
Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptxDividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptx
Dividend Policy and Dividend Decision Theories.pptx
 
Call US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure service
Call US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure serviceCall US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure service
Call US 📞 9892124323 ✅ Kurla Call Girls In Kurla ( Mumbai ) secure service
 
06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf
06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf
06_Joeri Van Speybroek_Dell_MeetupDora&Cybersecurity.pdf
 
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx
03_Emmanuel Ndiaye_Degroof Petercam.pptx
 
(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(DIYA) Bhumkar Chowk Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
 
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur EscortsHigh Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
High Class Call Girls Nagpur Grishma Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
 
fca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdf
fca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdffca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdf
fca-bsps-decision-letter-redacted (1).pdf
 
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School SpiritInstant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
Instant Issue Debit Cards - High School Spirit
 
Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...
Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...
Solution Manual for Financial Accounting, 11th Edition by Robert Libby, Patri...
 
High Class Call Girls Nashik Maya 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Nashik
High Class Call Girls Nashik Maya 7001305949 Independent Escort Service NashikHigh Class Call Girls Nashik Maya 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Nashik
High Class Call Girls Nashik Maya 7001305949 Independent Escort Service Nashik
 
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
00_Main ppt_MeetupDORA&CyberSecurity.pptx
 
letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...
letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...
letter-from-the-chair-to-the-fca-relating-to-british-steel-pensions-scheme-15...
 
Malad Call Girl in Services 9892124323 | ₹,4500 With Room Free Delivery
Malad Call Girl in Services  9892124323 | ₹,4500 With Room Free DeliveryMalad Call Girl in Services  9892124323 | ₹,4500 With Room Free Delivery
Malad Call Girl in Services 9892124323 | ₹,4500 With Room Free Delivery
 
VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Katraj (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Complete Sa...
 
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
(ANIKA) Budhwar Peth Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pun...
 
Commercial Bank Economic Capsule - April 2024
Commercial Bank Economic Capsule - April 2024Commercial Bank Economic Capsule - April 2024
Commercial Bank Economic Capsule - April 2024
 
Call Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur EscortsCall Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls Service Nagpur Maya Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
 
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
VIP Call Girls Service Dilsukhnagar Hyderabad Call +91-8250192130
 

Volatility strategies for uncertain times

  • 1. Volatility June 2016Monthly Perspectives Portfolio Advice & Investment Research This document is for distribution to Canadian clients only. Please refer to the last page of this report for important disclosure information. Brad Simpson, Chief Wealth Strategist In this issue Volatility seems to be the hardest word�� 1 - 2 Own your risk���������������������������������������� 3 - 4 Low volatility strategies�������������������������� 5 - 6 Monthly market review������������������������������� 7 Important information�������������������������������� 8 Call him Voldemort, Harry. Always use the proper name for things. Fear of a name increases fear of the thing itself. - J.K. Rowling Volatility. There, I said it…and appear no worse off in the doing. It's incredible the fear that seems to come with its mere mention, but there is nothing to be afraid of. In fact, if you are prepared for it, volatility can be a positive contributor to your long-term financial well-being. The reason for this is that volatility, if experienced in reasonable quantities, is actually critical to a healthy financial market because it helps establish a much needed balance in the financial system. A financial environment with moderate volatility separates the wheat from the chaff, so investments that are poorly functioning go down in value, while ones that are functioning well go up. A financial environment without appropriate volatility sees all assets, good or bad, go up in value, which is unsustainable in the long term. Volatility seems to be the hardest word
  • 2. 2 Monthly Perspectives June 2016 Volatility seems to be the hardest word (cont’d) Brad Simpson, Chief Wealth Strategist The question that warrants due consideration is whether our current environment is well balanced and in good health? A well- functioning financial environment needs three key things: If one of these components fails to function effectively, there is usually a price correction leading to modest volatility. If all three are severely impaired, as was the case during the Credit Crisis of 2008, the likelihood of a financial crisis is high because financial markets are in their least effective state. During jubilant market highs, investors are driven by the fear of missing out and tend to think that markets can only go up. As a result, they are willing to pay more for less. During manic market lows, however, investors en masse are willing to pay less for more. But markets are not this black and white; all good or all bad. A healthy financial system works by striking a balance between the two extremes. Cognitive diversity 1 Investors in a marketplace must have opposing views on the value of underlying assets. Full disclosure 2 Investors must have equal access to all available information. Rewards and penalties 3 Investors who have a view based on all available information and get it wrong should lose money; those who get it right should make money. Achieving this balance is precisely what central banks, particularity the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), want to orchestrate today. Years of unconventional monetary policies, such as zero interest rates, led to the rampant decline of cognitive diversity, and investors began to run from one side of a proverbial boat to the other as the term “risk on” or “risk off” entered the common investor lexicon. This sort of thinking impaired the pricing mechanism of the market itself where there were no good or bad investments just “risk assets,” which moved with the whims of the masses shuffling back and forth. The Fed’s interest rate increase in December 2015 and the related volatility that followed in January and February 2016 should be seen as the Fed’s way of trying to inoculate the financial system with volatility to achieve balance. Markets corrected, they recovered and cognitive diversity has improved, resulting in fewer investments moving in unison. Years of unconventional monetary policies led to the rampant decline of cognitive diversity. In the long term, we believe that high debt, full valuations, decelerating earnings growth, central bank policy and geopolitical risks will continue to act as sources of volatility. For the short term, however, volatility seems to have tapered off due to some recent positive trends. For instance, in the second week of May, U.S. retail sales beat expectations. This was followed by a stream of positive data for the U.S. economy with reports on housing, industrial production, and consumer prices all suggesting that there are many good things happening in the world’s biggest and most important economy. According to TD Economics, this positive data has not gone unnoticed by Fed officials, with plenty of hawkish rhetoric heard soon after the release. Alongside the also hawkish minutes from their April meeting, the Fed looks increasingly likely to go ahead with another interest rate increase in the near future— as long as data continues to cooperate and the global economy remains out of the headlines. The current lull in volatility offers an opportunity for investors to make portfolio adjustments. With all this said, we feel that the current lull in volatility offers an opportunity for investors to make portfolio adjustments. Speak with you advisor about how you can prepare for a potential rise in volatility. While there are a number of ways to construct and/or make portfolio adjustments to protect capital and prosper during periods of turbulence, we will consider three that are consistent with our risk priority philosophy: ownership, low volatility and conservative hedge fund strategies.
  • 3. 3 Monthly Perspectives June 2016 Own your risk Chris Blake, CFA Issuer SP/TSX (Canada) SP 500 (USA) Nasdaq (USA) Hang Seng (Hong Kong) FTSE 100 (United Kingdom) Nikkei (Japan) Shanghai Shenzhen 300 (China) Energy 19.5% 7.2% 0.5% 7.1% 12.7% 0.4% 2.8% Materials 12.4% 2.9% 0.5% - 6.6% 7.7% 5.9% Industrials 8.0% 10.1% 4.5% 6.3% 6.7% 21.5% 14.8% Consumer Discretionary 6.5% 12.5% 18.8% 2.8% 11.3% 19.3% 10.5% Consumer Staples 4.4% 10.3% 5.7% 2.1% 19.8% 9.8% 6.1% Health Care 1.0% 14.7% 14.4% - 9.9% 11.3% 5.6% Financials 37.3% 16.2% 7.7% 55.1% 20.5% 5.9% 41.8% Information Technology 2.9% 20.1% 46.5% 11.5% 1.5% 14.8% 7.6% Telecommunication Services 5.5% 2.7% 1.2% 8.7% 6.4% 9.0% 0.6% Utilities 2.4% 3.4% 0.1% 6.3% 4.7% 0.3% 4.3% Figure 1: Composition of Major Indices Around the World Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at May 20, 2016. One of the most tried and tested ways to manage volatility is to make the philosophical decision to be an owner of businesses and not get caught up in the manic gyrations of equity markets. In our day to day business, we see a lot of Canadian investors’ portfolios, and too infrequently we see ones based on ownership. Instead, what we often see are portfolios heavily skewed towards Canadian benchmarks. As a result, the portfolios are deeply tilted to holdings in a few sectors: utilities, financial services, telecommunications, and commodities (both materials and energy). These sectors are the cornerstones of the Canadian equity market index. But you have to ask yourself: Is this the optimal portfolio allocation that will allow me to achieve my goals? Underlying that question is the question of whether the goals and risks of the SP/TSX Composite Index (SP/TSX) match your goals and your risk tolerance. In most cases the answer is an unequivocal no. A closer look at index risk Equity indices can be thought of as imaginary portfolios that represent the average performance of the stock market each day. Indices are generally created using statistical measures designed to find equities across sectors that are large, liquid and characteristic of the market the index is replicating. Although that may sound like an investor’s portfolio, they are quite different because indices generally have many more equities in them, often running into the hundreds (Dow Jones Industrials Index, with just 30 equities, is a notable exception.) For example, the SP/TSX is constructed of 234 individual equities across all ten of the GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) sectors. However, the financial sector itself had a better than 37% weight in the index as at May 20, 2016, and the combined weight of energy and materials stocks was almost 32%. That’s almost 70% allocated to just three sectors. Because these index averages are quoted on the nightly news and referenced in the morning paper, investors tend to focus on their performance and use them as a yardstick (or benchmark) to measure the performance of their own portfolios. The investing world is driven by benchmarks. They are present even when hidden by the cloak of an ETF, mutual fund or pension portfolio. ETFs are often designed specifically to track indices, and mutual fund managers are often given performance compensation based at least in part on their fund’s performance relative to some index or combination of indices. It should surprise no one that a quantitative review recently published by the Globe Mail found that many fund managers had performance characteristics suspiciously close to that of the indices against which they were measured. The same is true of pension fund managers; they also tend to be compensated relative to a benchmark so naturally they are highly benchmark aware. Speaking of benchmarks As figure 1 illustrates, not all indices are created equal. In fact, the differences in the composition of some of the major indices around the world can be quite drastic. As an example, financial services exposure varies from a low of just under 6% in Japan to a high of over 55% in Hong Kong. Similarly, information technology exposure varies from a low of less than a 3% weight in Toronto to a high of a 46.5% weight in the U.S. Nasdaq 100. So why are these indices so different? For the most part, the national indices are reflective of the underlying economy. In Canada, our economy has a greater reliance on resource extraction and so the combined weights of the energy and materials sectors is almost 32% compared to an SP 500 Index (SP 500) weighting of a little over 10% and a Nasdaq 100 weighting of 1%. A market index is simply a measure of what the market has done, and does not consider the investor’s goals. These indices are not built as portfolios; they are built to be representative of the underlying stock market that inevitably tends to mirror the domestic economy in which it is situated. These underlying differences are the key to the different returns of
  • 4. 4 Monthly Perspectives June 2016 Own your risk (cont’d) Chris Blake, CFA various indices over time, and can provide diversification benefits to a well-constructed portfolio. However, individually they may be inappropriate relative measures for most individual investors. A market index is simply a measure of what the market has done, and does not consider the investor’s goals. It is more appropriate to measure the success of an investor’s portfolio against his or her unique set of goals, not against an arbitrary benchmark that may carry more risk than an investor wants or needs to take. Investors who structure their portfolios to meet their individual goals and preferences, such as diversification benefits, dividend income or low volatility securities, and therefore deliberately deviate from the sector allocation of market indices, must understand that those indices may not be relevant benchmarks for them. Geographic risk This leads to our second observation about the many portfolios we see: they tend to be overly concentrated in Canada. Similar to the index that they mirror (mostly the SP/TSX) the portfolios are vulnerable to all the macro-economic shocks that can hit the domestic economy, and we don’t have to look back far to find the perfect example. Canadian equities performed relatively poorly in 2014 and 2015, only picking up somewhat since the start of 2016. The reason for the underperformance was clearly because the Canadian economy has a high exposure to commodities. Foreign investors reduced their exposure to commodities by reducing exposure to Canada. Further, the financial sector was viewed as vulnerable on the belief that weak commodity performance might drive layoffs, impinging on consumer sentiment and finances, which could result in loan defaults. Diversification within the equity class would dampen such an impact. That diversification should be across industry groups as well as across geographies and currencies. Currency: a portfolio risk or return enhancer? Many investors have an aversion to investing outside of their home country since their financial goals are most likely denominated in domestic currency; investing outside their home country would therefore add a layer of currency risk. While some investors mitigate currency risk by sticking to the domestic market, currency can actually be a driver of portfolio returns, thus helping meet long- term goals. For example, let us look at the returns for a Canadian investor under a few scenarios (figure 2). In 2014 and 2015, not only did the SP 500 outperform the SP/ TSX but Canadian dollar denominated investment in the SP 500 provided investors with a significant added benefit. To date, 2016 has not worked out so well for Canadian investors who ventured south of the border, both because the SP 500 has underperformed the SP/TSX and because the Canadian currency has strengthened, turning a meagre return for SP 500 investors into a loss in Canadian dollars (CAD). Notwithstanding the lower CAD based returns in the last few months, the point of diversification, both in terms of the investment set and the potential benefit of currency diversification can be seen in the last two lines of the table, which evaluate the 5- and 10-year performance metrics. Over the long term, currency is more likely to be neutral than either a head or tail wind, depending on the starting point. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. A: Annualized; TR: Total Return. As at May 20, 2016. Figure 2: Currency Impact on Index Performance Issuer SP/TSX Composite Index SP 500 Index (USD) SP 500 Index (CAD) 2014 (TR) 10.55% 13.68% 24.24% 2015 (TR) -8.33% 1.37% 20.67% January 1 to May 20, 2016 (TR) 8.25% 1.31% -3.79% January 1, 2014 to May 20, 2016 (A) 4.04% 6.85% 16.42% January 1, 2011 to March 31, 2016 (A) 3.04% 12.19% 18.02% January 1, 2006 to May 20, 2016 (A) 4.69% 7.25% 8.41% In an index such as the MSCI All Country World Index, which tracks stocks from 23 developed and 23 developing markets covering 85% of the world’s investable universe, Canada had a mere 3.25% weighting as at April 29, 2016. There are a lot of opportunities outside this country and many leading global companies are domiciled right next door in the United States, a country with a 52.7% weight in that index. Many investors can take advantage of the ease with which a Canadian can invest in the U.S. market. Risk should be thought of as risk of failing to meet personal goals, not the day-to-day volatility of stock prices and performance of arbitrary indices. Redefine your risk Let’s face the facts, the primary objective of most investing is goal realization: saving and earning a return so that goals can be met. Given this objective, risk should be thought of as risk of failing to meet these goals, not the day-to-day volatility of stock prices, currencies and benchmark indices. Most investors understand that a long-term approach to investing is important and the short- term blips (whether up or down) tend to even out in the long run. Adding diversification based on the concept of company ownership and exposure to different currencies and geographies can not only reduce some of that daily volatility, but be a source of return to help meet investment goals. It’s time to stop looking at our portfolios and how they fare relative to arbitrary indices that are not designed to meet our goals and instead embrace a goals-focused approach to investing.
  • 5. 5 Monthly Perspectives June 2016 Low volatility strategies Christopher Lo, CFA; Brad Simpson Figure 3: SP 500 Index Equity Returns and Risk Return Standard Deviation Beta vs. Market Sharpe Ratio Market Neutral 4.62% 3.06% 0.07 0.74 Long/Short Equity 8.07% 9.24% 0.48 0.63 Global Equities 6.13% 15.72% 1.00 0.31 Canadian Equities 6.56% 20.98% 1.12 0.30 Global Bonds 4.70% 5.47% 0.08 0.43 Source: Bloomberg and Morningstar Direct. Annualized returns from January 1, 1997 - December 31, 2015. Market Neutral = HFRI Market Neutral Index; Long/Short Equity = HFRI Equity Market Hedge Index; Global Equities = MSCI World Gross Return Index; Canadian Equities = SP/TSX Composite Total Return Index; Global Bonds = BofAML Global Broad Market Total Return Index. All index returns are in USD. Cash equivalent for the Sharpe ratio is BofAML US Treasury Bill 3 Month Total Return Index and Beta is measured against the MSCI World Gross Return Index. Figure 4: Hedge Fund Volatility and Returns It is safe to say that all investors enjoy the feeling of making a profitable return. On the opposite side of the spectrum—and with greater magnitude—they dislike the feeling of loss that comes with experiencing volatility in their portfolio. There is a natural assumption that there is a positive relationship between an investment's potential level of volatility and its expected return. Meaning that investments deemed to be more volatile should carry with them the potential for greater returns, after all, an investor should be compensated for taking on risk. Not surprisingly, financial academics have analyzed historical stock prices to find supporting evidence of this correlation. What is surprising, however, is that most of the research suggests this may not be true over a full market cycle. Source: TD Asset Management, Standard Poor’s. Annualized returns on SP 500 Index constituents are from August 1978 through December 2014. Quintiles represent equally- weighted portfolios of 100 stocks each, constructed monthly from equities sorted by trailing 36 months standard deviation. For illustrative purposes only. Figure 3 illustrates this important point as it considers the historical risk-return pattern of the constituents of the SP 500 Index from August 1978 through December 2014. Each bar represents the annualized return on a portfolio of 100 stocks from the index. Each portfolio has been equally weighted and constructed on the basis of trailing 36 months standard deviation (standard deviation is often used to gauge an investment's volatility because it quantifies how much a series of numbers varies). The data shows that the most volatile equities (riskiest) have delivered lower average returns over the long run while less volatile equities performed better. Low volatility equity portfolios This sort of evidence has led to the development of low volatility strategies, such as low volatility equity portfolios. TD Asset Management is a pioneer in the management of low volatility portfolios having launched its first low volatility fund, the TD Emerald Low Volatility Canadian Equity Pooled Fund Trust on September 11, 2009. Seven and a half years after its launch, the strategy has delivered strong risk-adjusted returns. Its success spurred the subsequent launch of other low volatility equity funds for institutional and individual investors. Conservative hedge funds Another way to potentially reduce volatility is through the prudent use of conservative hedge funds, particularly long/short equity and market neutral strategies. Historically, stocks in general have had a high level of correlation to the state of the overall economy, while long/short and market neutral strategies have had a lower level of correlation to equity markets. This means they have shown the tendency to move in a different direction than equity markets. As such, adding a long/ short or market neutral strategy to a traditional portfolio can act as a diversifier and potentially lead to a higher return and a lower level of volatility. As illustrated in the table below, over the past 19 years, hedge funds have had a similar return as stocks but with significantly less volatility as measured by standard deviation. The table illustrates the returns and volatility of equities and bonds compared to long/short and market neutral strategies from 1997 to 2015. Long/short funds 1 The fund purchases undervalued stocks and sells-short overvalued stocks. Market neutral funds 2 The fund also employs a long/short strategy; however, the differentiating factor is that the manager tries to neutralize market volatility by limiting the exposure to the broad market, instead relying on security selection to add value. 0 3 6 9 12 15 Safest Moderate Risk Riskiest AnnualizedReturn(%)
  • 6. 6 Monthly Perspectives June 2016 Low volatility strategies (cont’d) Christopher Lo, CFA; Brad Simpson HFRI Market Neutral Index HFRI Equity Market Hedge (Long/Short) MSCI World ex Canada Median of Returns -0.8% -7.0% -19.0% Mean of Returns 1.5% -10.9% -23.8% Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Morningstar Direct. Returns are reported in U.S. dollars and are not annualized. As a further illustration of the downside protection offered by hedge funds, the following chart highlights the returns of global equity markets versus long/short and market neutral strategies during periods of extreme equity market volatility. In each of the periods, the losses of the hedge funds were less than that of the traditional long-only equity markets. When combined with long- only investments, a portfolio incorporating alternative investments has the potential to deliver higher risk adjusted returns and a “smoother” return. Despite their apparent appeal, they are not an investment suitable for everyone. A hedge fund is an investment fund that is typically available to institutional and accredited individual investors. They are similar to mutual funds in that investments are pooled and professionally managed but differ in that a hedge fund has far more flexibility in its investment strategies. This flexibility will vary depending on the strategy, which could incorporate the use of short positions, leverage and derivatives. Figure 5: Periods of Extreme Equity Market Downturns -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% MSCI World ex Canada HFRI Equity Market Hedge (Long/Short) HFRI Market Neutral Index Apr 2011 - Sep 2011 Apr 2010 - June 2010 Oct 2007 - Feb 2009 Mar 2002 - Sep 2002 Mar 2000 - Sep 2001 Jun 1998 - Aug 1998 Periods of Extreme Equity Market Downturns Return Depending on the specific strategies employed, hedge funds may provide investors with an investment that has a relatively low correlation to traditional asset classes and can offer potential for enhanced returns or capital protection. Investors should be aware that hedge funds are generally less regulated when compared to mutual funds, and have minimum investment periods (lock-ups) and notice periods for redemptions. In conclusion, while including low volatility strategies in a portfolio can provide additional diversification, and potentially reduce portfolio volatility and enhance returns, some alternative investments, such as hedge funds, may not be appropriate for every investor. The allocation to these alternative investments depends upon your investment goals, risk tolerance, time horizon and investment sophistication. Your advisor can help determine if low volatility equity portfolios or alternative investments should be part of your portfolio.
  • 7. 7 Monthly Perspectives June 2016 Monthly market review (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Canadian Indices ($CA) Return Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years SP/TSX Composite (TR) 44,751 1.00 10.24 9.46 -3.31 6.77 3.43 4.81 7.50 SP/TSX Composite (PR) 14,066 0.82 9.37 8.12 -6.32 3.60 0.38 1.82 5.05 SP/TSX 60 (TR) 2,110 0.84 9.58 8.72 -3.16 7.37 3.88 5.11 8.04 SP/TSX SmallCap (TR) 884 -0.30 20.31 21.56 0.60 4.29 -2.30 1.15 - U.S. Indices ($US) Return Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years SP 500 (TR) 3,958 1.80 9.12 3.57 1.72 11.06 11.67 7.41 7.88 SP 500 (PR) 2,097 1.53 8.53 2.59 -0.49 8.74 9.29 5.14 5.88 Dow Jones Industrial (PR) 17,787 0.08 7.69 2.08 -1.24 5.57 7.19 4.76 5.91 NASDAQ Composite (PR) 4,948 3.62 8.56 -1.19 -2.41 12.71 11.78 8.55 7.15 Russell 2000 (TR) 5,556 2.25 12.15 2.28 -5.97 6.93 7.86 6.27 7.39 U.S. Indices ($CA) Return Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years SP 500 (TR) 5,185 6.26 5.71 -1.98 6.89 20.17 18.61 9.28 7.64 SP 500 (PR) 2,747 5.99 5.13 -2.90 4.56 17.67 16.08 6.97 5.65 Dow Jones Industrial (PR) 23,300 4.47 4.32 -3.39 3.78 14.24 13.86 6.58 5.68 NASDAQ Composite (PR) 6,482 8.16 5.16 -6.48 2.55 21.96 18.73 10.43 6.91 Russell 2000 (TR) 7,277 6.74 8.64 -3.20 -1.19 15.70 14.57 8.12 7.16 MSCI Indices ($US) Total Return Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years World 6,495 0.65 9.33 2.11 -3.39 7.05 7.13 5.13 6.28 EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) 6,332 -0.78 8.94 -0.75 -9.24 2.45 2.58 2.40 4.58 EM (Emerging Markets) 1,680 -3.71 9.67 2.40 -17.33 -4.62 -4.50 3.44 5.08 MSCI Indices ($CA) Total Return Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years World 8,508 5.07 5.90 -3.36 1.52 15.84 13.80 6.96 6.04 EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) 8,294 3.57 5.53 -6.07 -4.63 10.85 8.96 4.18 4.35 EM (Emerging Markets) 2,200 0.51 6.24 -3.08 -13.12 3.21 1.44 5.23 4.85 Currency Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years Canadian Dollar ($US/$CA) 76.34 -4.20 3.23 5.66 -4.84 -7.58 -5.85 -1.71 0.22 Regional Indices (Native Currency) Price Return Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years London FTSE 100 (UK) 6,231 -0.18 2.19 -0.18 -10.79 -1.82 0.79 0.85 2.57 Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 20,815 -1.20 8.91 -5.02 -24.10 -2.41 -2.55 2.76 3.12 Nikkei 225 (Japan) 17,235 3.41 7.54 -9.45 -16.19 7.76 12.20 1.09 -1.20 Benchmark Bond Yields 3 Month 5 Year 10 Year 30 Year Government of Canada Yields 0.55 0.88 1.51 2.08 U.S. Treasury Yields 0.23 1.30 1.83 2.68 Canadian Bond Indices ($CA) Total Return Index Level 1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index 1017.08 0.91 1.62 2.24 2.81 4.27 4.82 5.37 FTSE TMX Canadian Short Term Bond Index (1-5 Years) 693.82 0.35 0.56 0.63 1.38 2.39 2.62 3.86 FTSE TMX Canadian Mid Term Bond Index (5-10) 116.58 1.20 1.60 2.30 3.87 4.90 5.63 6.16 FTSE TMX Long Term Bond Index (10+ Years) 1621.30 1.42 3.06 4.37 3.96 6.40 7.64 7.28 Sources: TD Securities Inc., Bloomberg Finance L.P. TR: total return, PR: price return. As at May 31, 2016.
  • 8. 8 Monthly Perspectives June 2016 The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable. Where such statements are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties, they are not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, trading, or tax strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. TD Wealth, The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered. Certain statements in this document may contain forward-looking statements (“FLS”) that are predictive in nature and may include words such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “believes”, “estimates” and similar forward-looking expressions or negative versions thereof. FLS are based on current expectations and projections about future general economic, political and relevant market factors, such as interest and foreign exchange rates, equity and capital markets, the general business environment, assuming no changes to tax or other laws or government regulation or catastrophic events. Expectations and projections about future events are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, which may be unforeseeable. Such expectations and projections may be incorrect in the future. FLS are not guarantees of future performance. Actual events could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any FLS. A number of important factors including those factors set out above can contribute to these digressions. You should avoid placing any reliance on FLS. All credit products are subject to credit approval and various terms and conditions. Nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer or commitment to lend by the Toronto- Dominion Bank. Full disclosures for all companies covered by TD Securities Inc. can be viewed at https://www.tdsresearch.com/equities/welcome.important.disclosure.action Research Ratings Overall Risk Rating in order of increasing risk: Low (7.3% of coverage universe), Medium (35.4%), High (42.0%), Speculative (15.4%) ActionListBUY:Thestock’stotalreturnisexpectedtoexceedaminimumof15%,onarisk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months and it is a top pick in the Analyst’s sector. BUY: The stock’s total returnisexpectedtoexceedaminimumof15%,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12months. SPECULATIVE BUY: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 30% over the next 12 months; however, there is material event risk associated with the investment that could result in significant loss. HOLD: The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and 15%, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months. TENDER: Investors are advised to tender their shares to a specific offer for the company’s securities. REDUCE: The stock’s total return is expected to be negative over the next 12 months. Research Report Dissemination Policy: TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. makes its research products available in electronic format. These research products are posted to our proprietary Important information websites for all eligible clients to access by password and we distribute the information to our sales personnel who then may distribute it to their retail clients under the appropriate circumstances either by e-mail, fax or regular mail. No recipient may pass on to any other person, or reproduce by any means, the information contained in this report without our prior written consent. Analyst Certification:The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report hereby certify that (i) the recommendations and technical opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about any and all of the securities or issuers discussed herein, and (ii) no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the provision of specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in the research report. Conflicts of Interest: The Portfolio Advice Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report may own securities of the issuer(s) discussed in this report. As with most other employees, the analyst(s) who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. and its affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services, however TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. does not compensate its analysts based on specific investment banking transactions. Mutual Fund Disclosure: Commissions, trailing commissions, performance fees, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus, which contains detailed investment information, before investing. The indicated rates of return (other than for each money market fund) are the historical annual compounded total returns for the period indicated including changes in unit value and reinvestment of distributions. The indicated rate of return for each money market fund is an annualized historical yield based on the seven-day period ended as indicated and annualized in the case of effective yield by compounding the seven day return and does not represent an actual one year return. The indicated rates of return do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not covered by the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation or by any other government deposit insurer and are not guaranteed or insured. Their values change frequently. There can be no assurances that a money market fund will be able to maintain its net asset value per unit at a constant amount or that the full amount of your investment will be returned to you. Past performance may not be repeated. Corporate Disclosure: TD Wealth represents the products and services offered by TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. (Member – Canadian Investor Protection Fund), TD Waterhouse Private Investment Counsel Inc., TD Wealth Private Banking (offered by The Toronto-Dominion Bank) and TD Wealth Private Trust (offered by The Canada Trust Company). The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research team is part of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc., a subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. Trade-mark Disclosures: FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc. (“FTDCM”), FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”), the London Stock Exchange Group companies (the “Exchange”) or TSX INC. (“TSX” and together with FTDCM, FTSE and the Exchange, the “Licensor Parties”). The Licensor Parties make no warranty or representation whatsoever, expressly or impliedly, either as to the results to be obtained from the use of the index/indices (“the Index/Indices”) and/or the figure at which the said Index/Indices stand at any particular time on any particular day or otherwise. The Index/Indices are compiled and calculated by FTDCM and all copyright in the Index/Indices values and constituent lists vests in FTDCM. The Licensor Parties shall not be liable (whether in negligence or otherwise) to any person for any error in the Index/Indices and the Licensor Parties shall not be under any obligation to advise any person of any error therein. “TMX” is a trade mark of TSX Inc. and is used under licence. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTDCM under licence. Bloomberg and Bloomberg.com are trademarks and service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P., a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. TD Securities is a trade-mark of The Toronto-Dominion Bank representing TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC, TD Securities Limited and certain corporate and investment banking activities of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. ®The TD logo and other trade-marks are the property of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. Percentage of subject companies under each rating category—BUY (covering Action List BUY, BUY and Spec. BUY ratings), HOLD and REDUCE (covering TENDER and REDUCE ratings). As at June 1, 2016. Distribution of Research Ratings 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% BUY HOLD REDUCE REDUCE 5% BUY 57% HOLD 38% 61% 34% 4% Percentage of subject companies within each of the three categories (BUY, HOLD and REDUCE) for which TD Securities Inc. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months. As at June 1, 2016. Investment Banking Services Provided 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% BUY HOLD REDUCE 61% 34% 4%