Population and Climate Change
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This document discusses population dynamics and their relationship to climate change. It notes that future population growth, particularly in developing nations, could exacerbate climate change, but reducing growth rates through policies that decrease fertility and promote development can help mitigate climate emissions. The largest populations are found in China, India, and the US, which together represent over 40% of the world's population but produce around 45% of CO2 emissions. Stabilizing the global population is seen as an important part of addressing the causes of climate change.
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Population and Climate Change
- 2. Introduction Global population : an overview Population and Emissions Population Policy China and India : The Billionaires Future Demographic Emissions Conclusion
- 3. I = PAT I = Environmental impact (I) P= Population (P) A= Affluence (economic product or consumption per person) T= Technology U NFPA—because everyone counts
- 4. Source : Lutz, Wolfgang, 2009
- 5. “Future population growth in developing nations could accentuate climate change. A reduction in growth rates would, therefore, help mitigate climate change while speeding up poverty reduction and development.” (Guzman 2009)
- 6. The 1980s and 1990s saw the greatest numbers of added people
- 7. Mortality declined : -Medical advances (antibiotics and vaccines) -Dietary improvement -Public health/Sanitation -Safe drinking water -Vector control Fertility declined : -Desired family size -Link with education and income -contraception
- 8. Population of the 20 most populous countries (millions) 1950 2010 1950 2100
- 10. Population by age groups and sex
- 11. - Uganda has average 6.67 children/woman (one of the highest in the world) - Prenzlau (East Germany) : less than 300 babies/year because of the lack of young woman - Thailand : only 6% of Thai women more than 60 attended any secondary school - Andhra pradesh (India): young mothers (married at 16), more than 60% women are sterilized at 23.
- 12. Source: Khatib (2011) “Population growth or decline will continue to be a key determinant of future emissions increases” (Scheinder, et.al 2010)
- 15. China India United States
- 16. India China
- 17. China and India : The Billionaires
- 18. China
- 20. 2010
- 21. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005 International agreement linked to the UNFCCC, which commits its Parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets In Doha, Qatar, on 8 December 2012, the "Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol" was adopted.
- 22. 70% of future world population growth is take place in 20 countries in Africa and Asia (not included China) Smaller families : education, health care, family planning and opportunities for women Reducing poverty and inequality can slow population growth Ensuring that every child is wanted and every childbirth safe can lead to smaller and stronger families
- 23. Population projections (high, medium and low to 2300). The United Nations high, medium, and low population projections are based on assumptions about current and future fertility, mortality, and migration. Data from United Nations Population Division (2004) World Population to 2300. Source :Leahy and Engelman, 2008
- 24. Developed countries -Stable/declining population - Lower growth : fewer opportunities for changes and limitation for efficiency gains - Infrastructures efficiency improvement Developing countries - High population rate - Opportunity lower energy uses Migration
- 25. Figure . Population by age and sex in more- developed and less-developed countries, 2010 Source :Samir KC.2013
- 26. Population policy is important in mitigation and adaptation to climate change Reproductive health service Fact: only 54% woman use modern contraception, and less than 10% in Africa Family planning especially in developing countries
- 28. China, US and India : more than 40% world’s population and 45% produce CO2 emissions Stabilizing global population is a key role to address ‘cause and effect’ climate change Scientific, political, technology and health care might affect population growth
- 29. “People are part of the Problem of Climate Change and Part of The Solution” (O’neill et.al 2001)
Editor's Notes
- The milestone of 7 billion is marked by achievements, setbacks and paradoxes.While women are on average having fewer children than they were in the 1960s,our numbers continue to rise. Globally, people are younger—and older—than ever before. In some of the poorest countries, high fertility rates hamperdevelopment and perpetuate poverty, while in some of the richest countries, lowfertility rates and too few people entering the job market are raising concerns
- Cohen, J. E. (2010). Population and Climate Change. Proceedings Of The American Philosophical Society, 154(2), 158-182Interactions between the human population and the environment,including climate, depend on economics and culture.Environmental impact (I) is the product (mathematically and causally) of population(P) times affluence (A, economic product or consumption per person)times the environmental impact per unit of economic activity (T), summarized
- Human population enters our concerns about climate change at both the beginning andthe end of the causal chain: humans have produced the emissions that trigger climatechange; consequently the potentially dangerous impact of this change on humanwellbeing is our main cause for concern. On the left side of the chart, population is viewed as a driver of theemissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) which is in line with the moreconventional view. The I = PAT model tried to distinguish betweenthe supposedly separate effects of population size (P), consumptionassociated with affluence (A), and technological efficiency (T).Recent analyses have considered more complex effects and thepossibility of interactions. The PCC (Population and Climate Change)Project carried out at IIASA over the past five years under theleadership of Brian O’Neill produced a comprehensive model whichincludes the effects of changing household size, age structure, andurbanization on energy use. The findings show that populationaging and urbanization can have significant effects in addition topopulation size but that the size of the effect greatly depends onhow the question is posed.
- These are some publications
- Develop countries is less dynamics and static.
- Demographic transition is standard framework used by population specialist to describe dynamic process of population growth. This framework is Under the assumption that net migration is zero. This framework shows the transistion from a regime of high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality in the end.
- Key result: In 2100 ten out of the twenty most populous countries will be in Africa. Nigeria will be the third most populous country - replacing the United States of America.In 1950 there were seven European countries among the twenty most populous countries of the world (including the Russian Federation).There were only two European nations among the group of the twenty most populous nations in 2010 - Germany and the Russian Federation. China and India were, by far, the most populous countries in the World in 2010.Already by 2050 there will be only one European country among the twenty most populous nations - the Russian Federation. India will have become the most population country - with some 400 million people more than China.By the end of the century ten out of the twenty most populous countries will be in Africa (Nigeria, the United Republic of Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Zambia, Niger, Malawi, Sudan). Nigeria will be the third most populous country in the world. China's population will be some 600 million smaller than that of India.Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
- Source :Imad A. Khatib (2011). Municipal Solid Waste Management in Developing Countries: Future Challenges and Possible Opportunities, Integrated Waste Management - Volume II, Mr. Sunil Kumar (Ed.), ISBN: 978-953-307-447-4, InTech, DOI: 10.5772/16438. Humanity has rapidly shifted from society based on agriculture for economic system to an economic system that dependent on fossil fuel.
- It is not an easy task to change the historical of percapita emissions.
- China’s population is projected to peak and begin a slow decline due in part to the effects of the “one-child” family planning policy
- In this animated population pyramid one can watch population change in China unfold over a 100 year period - between 1950 and 2050.For the period 1950 to 1995 the pyramid is based on population estimates of the UN Population Division; the data for 2000 to 2050 are from the most recent medium variant UN population projection.One can see how the "baby boom" generation from the 1960s and early 1970s "moves up" the age pyramid. The animation also visualizes the aging of the Chinese population, which is caused by the significant fertility decline since the mid-1970s (and the further increase in life expectancy). Within the next 3 decades the number of elderly people in China will increase massively.Source : http://webarchive.iiasa.ac.at
- Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities."The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. The detailed rules for the implementation of the Protocol were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh, Morocco, in 2001, and are referred to as the "Marrakesh Accords." Its first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012.The amendment includes:New commitments for Annex I Parties to the Kyoto Protocol who agreed to take on commitments in a second commitment period from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2020;A revised list of greenhouse gases (GHG) to be reported on by Parties in the second commitment period; andAmendments to several articles of the Kyoto Protocol which specifically referenced issues pertaining to the first commitment period and which needed to be updated for the second commitment period.
- If we compare with Scheinder data, Samir shows increasing data for woman who use contraceptive, it about 63%. Compare with Scheinder in previous slide (54%)