We analyze political stability of social security that involves pre-funding. We employ an overlapping generations model with intra-cohort heterogeneity and introduce partial funding, which is efficient in Kaldor-Hicks sense and has majority political support. Subsequently, agents vote on capturing the accumulated pension assets, and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme. We show that even if capturing assets reduces welfare in the long run, the distribution of benefits across cohorts living at the time of voting yields always sufficient political support. We explain the mechanisms which yield this counter-intuitive result. Preventing the asset capture requires switching off the fiscal channel, i.e. funding becomes politically stable if capturing of the pension assets cannot be used to reduce taxation and/or public debt.
Inequalities in an OLG economy with heterogeneous cohorts and pension systemsGRAPE
While the inequalities of endowments are widely recognized as areas of policy intervention, the dispersion in preferences may also imply inequalities of outcomes. In this paper, we analyze the inequalities in an OLG model with obligatory pension systems. We model both policy relevant pension systems (a defined benefit system – DB – and a transition from a DB to a defined contribution system, DC). Our framework features within cohort heterogeneity of endowments (individual productivities) and heterogeneity of preferences (preference for leisure and time preference). We introduce two policy instruments, which
are widely used: a contribution cap and a minimum pension. We show four main results. First, longevity increases aggregate consumption inequalities substantially in both pension systems, whereas the effect of a pension system reform works to reinforce the consumption inequalities and reduce the
wealth inequalities. Second, the contribution cap has negligible effect on inequalities, but the role for minimum pension benefit guarantee is more pronounced. Third, the reduction in inequalities due to minimum pension benefit guarantee is achieved with virtually no effect on capital accumulation. The
fourth result and the main policy implication of our study, is demonstrating that the minimum pension benefit guarantee addresses mostly the inequalities which stem from differentiated endowments and not those that stem from differentiated preferences.
Political (In)Stability of Social Security ReformGRAPE
We analyze the political stability of welfare enhancing privatization of the social security. We consider an economy populated by overlapping generations, who vote on abolishing the funded system and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme, i.e. “unprivatizing” the pension system. We show that even if abolishing the system reduces overall welfare, the distribution of benefits across cohorts along the transition path implies that some ways of “unprivatizing” social security are always politically favored
Political (In)Stability of Pension System ReformsGRAPE
We analyze the political stability of welfare enhancing privatization of the social security. We consider an economy populated by overlapping generations, who vote on abolishing the funded system and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme, i.e. “unprivatizing” the pension system. We show that even if abolishing the system reduces overall welfare, the distribution of benefits across cohorts along the transition path implies that some ways of “unprivatizing” social security are always politically favored
Welfare effects of fiscal policy in reforming the pension systemGRAPE
Most reforms of the pension systems imply substantial redistribution between cohorts and within a cohort. Fiscal policy, which accompanies these changes may counteract or reinforce this redistribution. Moreover, the literature has argued that the insurance motive implicit in some pension systems plays a major role in determining the welfare eects of the reform: reforms otherwise improving welfare become detrimental to welfare once insurance motive is internalized. We show that this result is not universal, i.e. there exists a variety of scal closures which yield welfare gains and political support for a pension system reform. In an OLG model with uncertainty, we analyze two sets of fiscal adjustments: fiscally neutral adjustments in the pension system (via contribution rate or replacement rate) and balancing pension system by a combination of taxes and/or public debt. We find that fiscally neutral pension system reforms are more likely to yield welfare gains. Many adjustments obtain sufficient political support despite yielding aggregate welfare losses and vice versa. Furthermore, we point to fiscal closures which attenuate and reinforce the relevance of the insurance motive in determining the welfare effects.
Political (In)Stability of Social Security ReformGRAPE
We analyze the political stability social security reforms which introduce a funded pillar (a.k.a. privatizations). We consider an economy populated by overlapping generations, which introduces a funded pillar. This reform is efficient in Kaldor-Hicks sense and has political support. Subsequently, agents vote on abolishing the funded system and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme, i.e. “unprivatizing” the pension system. We show that even if abolishing the system reduces welfare in the long run, the distribution of benefits across cohorts along the transition path implies that “unprivatizing” social security is always politically favored. This suggests that property rights definition over retirement savings may be of crucial importance for determining the stability of retirement systems with a funded pillar.
On the optimal introduction of a funded pension pillarGRAPE
Jan Woźnica, Marcin Bielecki, Krzysztof Makarski and Joanna Tyrowicz Group for Research in APplied Economics (GRAPE)
15th International Pension Workshop
Paris, May 2017
Welfare effects of fiscal policy in reforming the pension systemGRAPE
Most reforms of the pension systems imply substantial adjustments in between cohort and within cohort redistribution. Fiscal policy, which accompanies these changes may counteract or reinforce this redistribution. In an OLG model with uncertainty, we show that fiscal closure is crucial for determining the welfare effects of the pension system reforms as well as political support for introducing it. We analyze two sets of fiscal adjustments: fiscally neutral adjustments in the pension system (via contribution rate or replacement rate) and balancing pension system by a combination of taxes and/or public debt. We find that in general, fiscally neutral pension system reforms are more likely to yield welfare gains. Many adjustments obtain sufficient political support despite yielding aggregate welfare losses and vice versa. We show the role of the insurance motive implicit in some pension systems for determining the welfare effects of the reform and point to fiscal closures which attenuate and reinforce the relevance of this motive for determining the welfare effects.
Inequalities in an OLG economy with heterogeneous cohorts and pension systemsGRAPE
While the inequalities of endowments are widely recognized as areas of policy intervention, the dispersion in preferences may also imply inequalities of outcomes. In this paper, we analyze the inequalities in an OLG model with obligatory pension systems. We model both policy relevant pension systems (a defined benefit system – DB – and a transition from a DB to a defined contribution system, DC). Our framework features within cohort heterogeneity of endowments (individual productivities) and heterogeneity of preferences (preference for leisure and time preference). We introduce two policy instruments, which
are widely used: a contribution cap and a minimum pension. We show four main results. First, longevity increases aggregate consumption inequalities substantially in both pension systems, whereas the effect of a pension system reform works to reinforce the consumption inequalities and reduce the
wealth inequalities. Second, the contribution cap has negligible effect on inequalities, but the role for minimum pension benefit guarantee is more pronounced. Third, the reduction in inequalities due to minimum pension benefit guarantee is achieved with virtually no effect on capital accumulation. The
fourth result and the main policy implication of our study, is demonstrating that the minimum pension benefit guarantee addresses mostly the inequalities which stem from differentiated endowments and not those that stem from differentiated preferences.
Political (In)Stability of Social Security ReformGRAPE
We analyze the political stability of welfare enhancing privatization of the social security. We consider an economy populated by overlapping generations, who vote on abolishing the funded system and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme, i.e. “unprivatizing” the pension system. We show that even if abolishing the system reduces overall welfare, the distribution of benefits across cohorts along the transition path implies that some ways of “unprivatizing” social security are always politically favored
Political (In)Stability of Pension System ReformsGRAPE
We analyze the political stability of welfare enhancing privatization of the social security. We consider an economy populated by overlapping generations, who vote on abolishing the funded system and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme, i.e. “unprivatizing” the pension system. We show that even if abolishing the system reduces overall welfare, the distribution of benefits across cohorts along the transition path implies that some ways of “unprivatizing” social security are always politically favored
Welfare effects of fiscal policy in reforming the pension systemGRAPE
Most reforms of the pension systems imply substantial redistribution between cohorts and within a cohort. Fiscal policy, which accompanies these changes may counteract or reinforce this redistribution. Moreover, the literature has argued that the insurance motive implicit in some pension systems plays a major role in determining the welfare eects of the reform: reforms otherwise improving welfare become detrimental to welfare once insurance motive is internalized. We show that this result is not universal, i.e. there exists a variety of scal closures which yield welfare gains and political support for a pension system reform. In an OLG model with uncertainty, we analyze two sets of fiscal adjustments: fiscally neutral adjustments in the pension system (via contribution rate or replacement rate) and balancing pension system by a combination of taxes and/or public debt. We find that fiscally neutral pension system reforms are more likely to yield welfare gains. Many adjustments obtain sufficient political support despite yielding aggregate welfare losses and vice versa. Furthermore, we point to fiscal closures which attenuate and reinforce the relevance of the insurance motive in determining the welfare effects.
Political (In)Stability of Social Security ReformGRAPE
We analyze the political stability social security reforms which introduce a funded pillar (a.k.a. privatizations). We consider an economy populated by overlapping generations, which introduces a funded pillar. This reform is efficient in Kaldor-Hicks sense and has political support. Subsequently, agents vote on abolishing the funded system and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme, i.e. “unprivatizing” the pension system. We show that even if abolishing the system reduces welfare in the long run, the distribution of benefits across cohorts along the transition path implies that “unprivatizing” social security is always politically favored. This suggests that property rights definition over retirement savings may be of crucial importance for determining the stability of retirement systems with a funded pillar.
On the optimal introduction of a funded pension pillarGRAPE
Jan Woźnica, Marcin Bielecki, Krzysztof Makarski and Joanna Tyrowicz Group for Research in APplied Economics (GRAPE)
15th International Pension Workshop
Paris, May 2017
Welfare effects of fiscal policy in reforming the pension systemGRAPE
Most reforms of the pension systems imply substantial adjustments in between cohort and within cohort redistribution. Fiscal policy, which accompanies these changes may counteract or reinforce this redistribution. In an OLG model with uncertainty, we show that fiscal closure is crucial for determining the welfare effects of the pension system reforms as well as political support for introducing it. We analyze two sets of fiscal adjustments: fiscally neutral adjustments in the pension system (via contribution rate or replacement rate) and balancing pension system by a combination of taxes and/or public debt. We find that in general, fiscally neutral pension system reforms are more likely to yield welfare gains. Many adjustments obtain sufficient political support despite yielding aggregate welfare losses and vice versa. We show the role of the insurance motive implicit in some pension systems for determining the welfare effects of the reform and point to fiscal closures which attenuate and reinforce the relevance of this motive for determining the welfare effects.
Pension (In)Stability of Social Security ReformGRAPE
In this paper we consider an economy populated by overlapping generations, who vote on abolishing the funded system and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme (i.e. unprivatizing the pension system). We compare politically stable and politically unstable reforms and show that even if the funded system is overall welfare enhancing, the cohort distribution of benefits along the transition path turns unprivatizing social security politically favorable.
Starzenie się społeczeństwa w Polsce jest faktem i system ubezpieczeń społecznych musiał w związku z tym zostać zreformowany. W 1999 roku system emerytalny zdefiniowanego świadczenia został zmieniony na system zdefiniowanej składki - czy w tej sytuacji podniesienie wieku emerytalnego wciąż jest konieczne?
Welfare effects of fiscal policy in reforming the pension systemGRAPE
Joanna Tyrowicz, Olivia Komada and Krzysztof Makarski
Group for Research in APplied Economics (GRAPE)
15th International Pension Workshop
Paris, May 2017
Welfare effects of fiscal closures when implementing pension reformsGRAPE
This presentation covers an analysis on how do fiscal closures matter for the welfare effects of implementing the pension reforms. We develop an OLG model and calibrate it to the case of actual reform implemented in Poland.
Is the retirement age increase in Poland still necessary given the 1999 reform of the pension system? EmerytGRAPE analysis with the use of OLG model answers this question.
Inequality in an OLG economy with heterogeneous cohorts and pension systemsGRAPE
Marcin Bielecki, Krzysztof Makarski and Joanna Tyrowicz
GRAPEjFAME & University of Warsaw & National Bank of Poland
International Workshop Economic Growth, Macroeconomic Dynamics and
Agents’ Heterogeneity, St. Petersburg, 2017
Pension reform of 1999 Poland had important macroeconomic and wefare effects. We investigate if it can be perceived as efficient, and how the implications differ between cohorts.
capital (income) taxation and pension system reformGRAPE
The paper studies the interaction between capital (income) taxation and pension system reform in the context of rising longevity. In an economy with idiosyncratic income shocks and uncertainty about life duration, defined benefit pension plans with redistribution (similar to the current US pension system) provide some insurance against these risks. The existing view in the literature states that the current pension system in the US introduces distortions to labor supply decisions and reduces capital accumulation, but reducing this distortion by the means of introducing (partially) funded defined contribution system involves loss of insurance and transitory fiscal gap, which dominate the benefits of reform. Prior financed the transitory costs of the reform by taxing consumption. We show that in the context of longevity, capital income taxation provides a superior alternative: welfare gains are sufficient to outweigh the loss of insurance and transitory funding costs. Our approach builds on optimal taxation literature: taxes should be levied on the least responsive tax base, and growing life expectancy raises incentives for capital accumulation. Further, higher risk exposure amplifies incentives for precautionary savings. These two mechanisms -- the rising longevity and the stronger precautionary motive -- make capital accumulation relatively less responsive to the tax hikes, thus reducing the dead-weight loss from increased taxation. In the long run, privatizing social security permits lower taxation, thus boosting capital income gains, accelerating capital accumulation, and economic progress. We reconcile our results with the earlier literature. We also study the political economy context and show that political support for capital income taxation is feasible.
Political (in)stability of pension system reformOliwia Komada
We analyze the political stability of social security reforms that involve a funded pillar (a.k.a.privatizations of social security). We employ an overlapping generations model with intracohort heterogeneity. The (partial) privatization of social security is efficient in Kaldor-Hickssense and has political support. Subsequently, agents vote on abolishing the funded pillar, capturing the accumulated pension assets, and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme,i.e. \unprivatizing" the pension system. We show that even if such reform reduces welfare in the long run, the distribution of benefits across cohorts along the transition path implies that \unprivatizing" social security is always politically preferred. We conclude that the correct assignment of property rights over retirement assets may be of crucial importance for
determining the stability of pensions systems with a funded pillar.
Political (In)Stability of Social Security ReformGRAPE
We analyze the political stability of welfare enhancing privatization of the social security. We consider an economy populated by overlapping generations, who vote on abolishing the funded system and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme, i.e. “unprivatizing” the pension system. We show that even if abolishing the system reduces overall welfare, the distribution of benefits across cohorts along the transition path implies that some ways of “unprivatizing” social security are always politically favored
Political (In)Stability of Social Security ReformGRAPE
In this paper we consider an economy populated by overlapping generations, which may decide about abolishing the funded system and replacing it with the pay-as- you-go scheme (i.e. unprivatizing the pension system). We compare politically stable and politically unstable reforms and show that even if the funded system is overall welfare enhancing, the cohort distribution of benefits along the transition path turns unprivatizing social security politically favorable.
Pension (In)Stability of Social Security ReformGRAPE
In this paper we consider an economy populated by overlapping generations, who vote on abolishing the funded system and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme (i.e. unprivatizing the pension system). We compare politically stable and politically unstable reforms and show that even if the funded system is overall welfare enhancing, the cohort distribution of benefits along the transition path turns unprivatizing social security politically favorable.
Starzenie się społeczeństwa w Polsce jest faktem i system ubezpieczeń społecznych musiał w związku z tym zostać zreformowany. W 1999 roku system emerytalny zdefiniowanego świadczenia został zmieniony na system zdefiniowanej składki - czy w tej sytuacji podniesienie wieku emerytalnego wciąż jest konieczne?
Welfare effects of fiscal policy in reforming the pension systemGRAPE
Joanna Tyrowicz, Olivia Komada and Krzysztof Makarski
Group for Research in APplied Economics (GRAPE)
15th International Pension Workshop
Paris, May 2017
Welfare effects of fiscal closures when implementing pension reformsGRAPE
This presentation covers an analysis on how do fiscal closures matter for the welfare effects of implementing the pension reforms. We develop an OLG model and calibrate it to the case of actual reform implemented in Poland.
Is the retirement age increase in Poland still necessary given the 1999 reform of the pension system? EmerytGRAPE analysis with the use of OLG model answers this question.
Inequality in an OLG economy with heterogeneous cohorts and pension systemsGRAPE
Marcin Bielecki, Krzysztof Makarski and Joanna Tyrowicz
GRAPEjFAME & University of Warsaw & National Bank of Poland
International Workshop Economic Growth, Macroeconomic Dynamics and
Agents’ Heterogeneity, St. Petersburg, 2017
Pension reform of 1999 Poland had important macroeconomic and wefare effects. We investigate if it can be perceived as efficient, and how the implications differ between cohorts.
capital (income) taxation and pension system reformGRAPE
The paper studies the interaction between capital (income) taxation and pension system reform in the context of rising longevity. In an economy with idiosyncratic income shocks and uncertainty about life duration, defined benefit pension plans with redistribution (similar to the current US pension system) provide some insurance against these risks. The existing view in the literature states that the current pension system in the US introduces distortions to labor supply decisions and reduces capital accumulation, but reducing this distortion by the means of introducing (partially) funded defined contribution system involves loss of insurance and transitory fiscal gap, which dominate the benefits of reform. Prior financed the transitory costs of the reform by taxing consumption. We show that in the context of longevity, capital income taxation provides a superior alternative: welfare gains are sufficient to outweigh the loss of insurance and transitory funding costs. Our approach builds on optimal taxation literature: taxes should be levied on the least responsive tax base, and growing life expectancy raises incentives for capital accumulation. Further, higher risk exposure amplifies incentives for precautionary savings. These two mechanisms -- the rising longevity and the stronger precautionary motive -- make capital accumulation relatively less responsive to the tax hikes, thus reducing the dead-weight loss from increased taxation. In the long run, privatizing social security permits lower taxation, thus boosting capital income gains, accelerating capital accumulation, and economic progress. We reconcile our results with the earlier literature. We also study the political economy context and show that political support for capital income taxation is feasible.
Political (in)stability of pension system reformOliwia Komada
We analyze the political stability of social security reforms that involve a funded pillar (a.k.a.privatizations of social security). We employ an overlapping generations model with intracohort heterogeneity. The (partial) privatization of social security is efficient in Kaldor-Hickssense and has political support. Subsequently, agents vote on abolishing the funded pillar, capturing the accumulated pension assets, and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme,i.e. \unprivatizing" the pension system. We show that even if such reform reduces welfare in the long run, the distribution of benefits across cohorts along the transition path implies that \unprivatizing" social security is always politically preferred. We conclude that the correct assignment of property rights over retirement assets may be of crucial importance for
determining the stability of pensions systems with a funded pillar.
Political (In)Stability of Social Security ReformGRAPE
We analyze the political stability of welfare enhancing privatization of the social security. We consider an economy populated by overlapping generations, who vote on abolishing the funded system and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme, i.e. “unprivatizing” the pension system. We show that even if abolishing the system reduces overall welfare, the distribution of benefits across cohorts along the transition path implies that some ways of “unprivatizing” social security are always politically favored
Political (In)Stability of Social Security ReformGRAPE
In this paper we consider an economy populated by overlapping generations, which may decide about abolishing the funded system and replacing it with the pay-as- you-go scheme (i.e. unprivatizing the pension system). We compare politically stable and politically unstable reforms and show that even if the funded system is overall welfare enhancing, the cohort distribution of benefits along the transition path turns unprivatizing social security politically favorable.
Efficiency versus insurance: The role for fiscal policy in social security pr...Oliwia Komada
Pension system reforms imply substantial redistribution between cohorts and within cohorts. They also implicitly affect the scope of risk sharing in societies. Linking pensions to individual incomes increases efficiency but reduces the insurance motive implicit in Beveridgean systems. The existing view in the literature argues that the insurance motive dominates the efficiency gains when evaluating the welfare effects. We show that this result is not universal: there exist ways to increase efficiency or compensate the loss of insurance, assuring welfare gains from pension system reform even in economies with uninsurable idiosyncratic income shocks. The fiscal closure, which necessarily accompanies the changes in the pension system, may boost efficiency and/or make up for lower insurance in the pension system. Indeed, fiscal closures inherently interact with the effects of pension system reform, counteracting or reinforcing the original effects. By analyzing a variety of fiscal closures, we reconcile our result with the earlier literature. We also study the political economy context and show that political support is feasible depending on the fiscal closure.
We analyze the political stability of social security that involves pre-funding. We employ an overlapping generations model with intra-cohort heterogeneity and introduce partial funding, which is efficient in Kaldor-Hicks sense and has majority political support. Subsequently, agents vote on capturing the accumulated pension assets and replacing it with the pay-as-you-go scheme. We show that even if capturing assets reduces welfare in the long run, the distribution of benefits across cohorts living at the time of voting yields always sufficient political support. We explain the mechanisms which yield this counter-intuitive result. Preventing the asset capture requires switching off the fiscal channel, i.e. funding becomes politically stable if capturing of the pension assets cannot be used to reduce taxation and/or public debt.
Inequalities in an OLG economy with heterogeneity within cohorts and an oblig...GRAPE
While the inequalities of endowments are widely recognized as areas of policy intervention, the dispersion in preferences may also imply inequalities of outcomes. In this paper, we analyze the inequalities in an OLG model with obligatory pension systems. We model both policy relevant pension systems (a defined benefit system — DB — and a transition from a DB to a defined contribution system, DC).
Eficiency versus insurance: The role for fiscal policy in social security pri...GRAPE
Pension system reforms imply substantial redistribution between cohorts and within cohorts. They also implicitly affect the scope of risk sharing in societies. Linking pensions to individual incomes increases efficiency but reduces the insurance motive implicit in Beveridgean systems. The existing view in the literature argues that the insurance motive dominates the efficiency gains when evaluating the welfare effects. We show that this result is not universal: there exist ways to increase efficiency or compensate the loss of insurance, assuring welfare gains from pension system reform even in economies with uninsurable idiosyncratic income shocks. The fiscal closure, which necessarily accompanies the changes in the pension system, may boost efficiency and/or make up for lower insurance in the pension system. Indeed, fiscal closures inherently interact with the effects of pension system reform, counteracting or reinforcing the original effects. By analyzing a variety of fiscal closures, we reconcile our result with the earlier literature. We also study the political economy context and show that political support is feasible depending on the fiscal closure
Stimulating old-age savings under incomplete rationalityGRAPE
Fully rational agents respond to old-age savings incentives with complete crowing out, hence any effects of such incentives stem from second order general equilibrium adjustments. However, agents facing constraints in obtaining optimal savings profiles experience also first order effects, i.e. substantial changes to the lifetime profiles of assets accumulation. We develop a fully-fledged overlapping generations model with intra-cohort heterogeneity. In addition to fully rational agents, each generation has also agents with other types of preferences. In this economy we introduce a variety of tax incentivized old-age savings schemes with endogenous participation. We analyze macroeconomic and welfare effects of such instruments.
Econ 3022 MacroeconomicsSpring 2020Final Exam - Due A.docxtidwellveronique
Econ 3022: Macroeconomics
Spring 2020
Final Exam - Due April 24th 11:59pm
1 Multiple Choice Questions (5 points each)
Question 1 What is Ricardian Equivalence?
(a) The economic hypothesis that agents’ decisions are una↵ected by the timing of taxation
and government spending
(b) The economic hypothesis that agents’ decisions are a↵ected by the timing of taxation
and government spending
(c) The economic hypothesis that taxation must be equal every period.
(d) The economic hypothesis that it is impossible to individually identify taxation today
and taxation tomorrow.
Question 2 Consider the consumer problem from the microeconomic foundations we dis-
cussed in class. Suppose the wage decreases. What do we expect to happen to house-
hold labor supply?
(a) Unclear
(b) Increase
(c) Decrease
(d) Stay constant
1
Question 3 Consider the consumer problem from the real intertemporal model. Which of
the following conditions must be satisfied at the solution?
(a) MRSl,c = w
(b) MRSc0,l0 =
1
w0
(c) MRSl,l0 =
w(1+r)
w0
(d) All of the above
Question 4 If total factor productivity tomorrow, z0, increases. What should happen to
investment?
(a) Unclear
(b) Increase
(c) Decrease
(d) Stay constant
Question 5 Consider the standard Solow model from class where the production function
is zF (K, N) = zK↵N1�↵. What is the golden rule savings rate?
(a) sgr = 1 � ↵
(b) sgr = ↵
(c) The savings rate that leads to a steady state with the highest level of income per capita
(d) The savings rate that leads to a steady state with the lowest level of income per capita
2
2 Economic Growth (20 points)
Consider the Solow Growth Model seen in class where the production function is Cobb-
Douglas and given by:
Y = zK↵ (N)
1�↵
where 0 < ↵ < 1 and z is a constant. Let s be the savings rate of this economy, so that
aggregate savings is just a constant fraction of aggregate output: S = sY . Let n be the rate
of population growth, so N
0
N
= 1 + n. Finally, let d be the depreciation rate, and assume the
law of motion for aggregate capital is given by:
K
0 = (1 � d) K + I
(a) (5 pts) Find an expression for the steady state level of capital per capita (k⇤) that only
depends on parameters of the model. Clearly show your work.
(b) (5 pts) Discuss how per capita variables (consumption and income) as well as aggregate
variables (consumption, capital stock, output, and savings) behave in steady state.
Now, suppose that we have a linear production function given by
Y = zK
where z is a constant. Let s be the savings rate of this economy, so that aggregate savings
is just a constant fraction of aggregate output: S = sY . Let n be the rate of population
growth, so N
0
N
= 1 + n. Finally, let d be the depreciation rate, and assume the law of motion
for aggregate capital is given by:
K
0 = (1 � d) K + I
(c) (5 pts) Find an expression for the level of per capita capital stock today as a function
of per capita capital stock tomorrow. Clea.
Fiscal incentives to pension savings -- are they efficient?GRAPE
Financing consumption of the elderly in the face of the projected increase in life expectancy is a key challenge for economic policy. Moreover, standard structural models with fully rational agents suggest that about 50-60 percent of old-age consumption is financed with voluntary savings, even in the presence of a fairly generous public pension system. This is clearly inconsistent with either the data, or the alarming simulations of old-age poverty in the years to come. Old-age saving (OAS) schemes are widely used policy instruments to address this challenge, but structural evaluations of such instruments remain rare. We develop a framework with incompletely rational agents: lacking financial literacy and experiencing commitment difficulties. We study a broad selection of OAS schemes and find that they raise welfare of financially illiterate agents and to a lesser extent improve welfare of agents with a high degree of time inconsistency. They also reduce the incidence of poverty at old age. Unfortunately, these instruments are fiscally costly, induce considerable crowd-out and direct fiscal transfers mostly to those agents, who need it the least.
Similar to Political (In)Stability of Social Security (20)
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
Revisiting gender board diversity and firm performanceGRAPE
Cel: oszacować wpływ inkluzywności władz spółek na ich wyniki.
Co wiemy?
• Większość firm nie ma równosci płci w organach (ILO, 2015)
• Większość firm nie ma w ogóle kobiet we władzach
Demographic transition and the rise of wealth inequalityGRAPE
We study the contribution of rising longevity to the rise of wealth inequality in the U.S. over the last seventy years. We construct an OLG model with multiple sources of inequality, closely calibrated to the data. Our main finding is that improvements in old-age longevity explain about 30% of the observed rise in wealth inequality. This magnitude is similar to previously emphasized channels associated with income inequality and the tax system. The contribution of demographics is bound to raise wealth inequality further in the decades to come.
(Gender) tone at the top: the effect of board diversity on gender inequalityGRAPE
The research explores to what extent the presence of women on board affects gender inequality downstream. We find that increasing presence reduces gender inequality. To avoid reverse causality, we propose a new instrument: the share of household consumption in total output. We extend the analysis to recover the effect of a single woman on board (tokenism(
Gender board diversity spillovers and the public eyeGRAPE
A range of policy recommendations mandating gender board quotas is based on the idea that "women help women". We analyze potential gender diversity spillovers from supervisory to top managerial positions over three decades in Europe. Contrary to previous studies which worked with stock listed firms or were region locked, we use a large data base of roughly 2 000 000 firms. We find evidence that women do not help women in corporate Europe, unless the firm is stock listed. Only within public firms, going from no woman to at least one woman on supervisory position is associated with a 10-15% higher probability of appointing at least one woman to the executive position. This pattern aligns with various managerial theories, suggesting that external visibility influences corporate gender diversity practices. The study implies that diversity policies, while impactful in public firms, have limited
effectiveness in promoting gender diversity in corporate Europe.
Tone at the top: the effects of gender board diversity on gender wage inequal...GRAPE
We address the gender wage gap in Europe, focusing on the impact of female representation in executive and non-executive boards. We use a novel dataset to identify gender board diversity across European firms, which covers a comprehensive sample of private firms in addition to publicly listed ones. Our study spans three waves of the Structure of Earnings Survey, covering 26 countries and multiple industries. Despite low prevalence of female representation and the complex nature of gender wage inequality, our findings reveal a robust causal link: increased gender diversity significantly decreases the adjusted gender wage gap. We also demonstrate that to meaningfully impact gender wage gaps, the presence of a single female representative in leadership is insufficient.
Gender board diversity spillovers and the public eyeGRAPE
A range of policy recommendations mandating gender board quotas is based on the idea that "women help women". We analyze potential gender diversity spillovers from supervisory to top managerial positions over three decades in Europe. Contrary to previous studies which worked with stock listed firms or were region locked, we use a large data base of roughly 2 000 000 firms. We find evidence that women do not help women in corporate Europe, unless the firm is stock listed. Only within public firms, going from no woman to at least one woman on supervisory position is associated with a 10-15\% higher probability of appointing at least one woman to the executive position. This pattern aligns with the Public Eye Managerial Theory, suggesting that external visibility influences corporate gender diversity practices. The study implies that diversity policies, while impactful in public firms, have limited effectiveness in promoting gender diversity in corporate Europe.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large New Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economies, we use this model to provide comparative statics across past and contemporaneous age structures of the working population. Thus, we quantify the extent to which the response of labor markets to adverse TFP shocks and monetary policy shocks becomes muted with the aging of the working population. Our findings have important policy implications for European labor markets and beyond. For example, the working population is expected to further age in Europe, whereas the share of young workers will remain robust in the US. Our results suggest a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle. Furthermore, with the aging population, lowering inflation volatility is less costly in terms of higher unemployment volatility. It suggests that optimal monetary policy should be more hawkish in the older society.
Evidence concerning inequality in ability to realize aspirations is prevalent: overall, in specialized segments of the labor market, in self-employment and high-aspirations environments. Empirical literature and public debate are full of case studies and comprehensive empirical studies documenting the paramount gap between successful individuals (typically ethnic majority men) and those who are less likely to “make it” (typically ethnic minority and women). So far the drivers of these disparities and their consequences have been studied much less intensively, due to methodological constraints and shortage of appropriate data. This project proposes significant innovations to overcome both types of barriers and push the frontier of the research agenda on equality in reaching aspirations.
Overall, project is interdisciplinary, combining four fields: management, economics, quantitative methods and psychology. An important feature of this project is that it offers a diversified methodological perspective, combining applied microeconometrics, as well as experimental methods.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
1. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Political (In)Stability of Social Security Reform
Krzysztof Makarski Joanna Tyrowicz
with help from Marcin Bielecki, Oliwia Komada and Magda Malec
Economic Institute, National Bank of Poland
Faculty of Economics, University of Warsaw
Warsaw School of Economics
European Public Choice Society - 2016 - Freiburg
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2. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Literature review
A wave of reforms: Holzman and Stiglitz (2001), Bonoli and Shikinawa (2006),
Gruber and Wise (2009)
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3. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Literature review
A wave of reforms: Holzman and Stiglitz (2001), Bonoli and Shikinawa (2006),
Gruber and Wise (2009)
Reform = introduce some notion of funding into the system
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4. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Literature review
A wave of reforms: Holzman and Stiglitz (2001), Bonoli and Shikinawa (2006),
Gruber and Wise (2009)
Reform = introduce some notion of funding into the system
Political economy of pension systems: will the reform be implemented
Cooley and Soares (1999), Galasso and Profeta (2002), subsequent literature
reviewed by de Waque (2005)
extant literature on whether or not privatization is in fact welfare enhancing:
Conesa and Kruger (1999), Nishiyama and Smetters (2007), Fehr (2009)
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6. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Literature review - continued
Despite general welfare gains...
... most of these reforms got reversed: Jarrett (2011); Schwarz et al. (2014)
(At least) Some of the reversals are welfare deteriorating: Hagemejer et al
(2015)
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7. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Goals and expectations
Goal
Suppose there already is a reform, with stable gains in the long-run:
does it eventually become politically stable?
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8. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Goals and expectations
Goal
Suppose there already is a reform, with stable gains in the long-run:
does it eventually become politically stable?
Expectations
With passing of the initially old cohorts, welfare gains become majoritarian
Understand/explain the reversing of reforms
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9. Motivation Model Motivation Results
What do we do?
1 Develop an OLG model
2 Start from PAYG DB
3 Introduce DC with PAYG and funded component in period 1
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10. Motivation Model Motivation Results
What do we do?
1 Develop an OLG model
2 Start from PAYG DB
3 Introduce DC with PAYG and funded component in period 1
4 Scenario 1: compensate loosers so that they voted for this reform
5 Scenario 2: do not compensate (introduce reform not democratically)
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11. Motivation Model Motivation Results
What do we do?
1 Develop an OLG model
2 Start from PAYG DB
3 Introduce DC with PAYG and funded component in period 1
4 Scenario 1: compensate loosers so that they voted for this reform
5 Scenario 2: do not compensate (introduce reform not democratically)
6 Allow living cohorts to vote on abolishing funded pillar
7 In scenario 1: if captured savings from funded pillar ⇒ reduce taxes and debt
(fiscal rule)
8 In scenario 2: if captured savings from funded pillar ⇒ reduce debt in the long
run
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12. Motivation Model Motivation Results
What do we do?
1 Develop an OLG model
2 Start from PAYG DB
3 Introduce DC with PAYG and funded component in period 1
4 Scenario 1: compensate loosers so that they voted for this reform
5 Scenario 2: do not compensate (introduce reform not democratically)
6 Allow living cohorts to vote on abolishing funded pillar
7 In scenario 1: if captured savings from funded pillar ⇒ reduce taxes and debt
(fiscal rule)
8 In scenario 2: if captured savings from funded pillar ⇒ reduce debt in the long
run
9 Repeat votes as if previous did not happen to seek “time of stability”
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14. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Agents
”born” at age 20 (j = 1) and live up to 100 years (J = 80)
subject to time and cohort dependent survival probability π
choose labor supply l endogenously until exogenous retirement age ¯J (forced to
retire)
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15. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Agents
”born” at age 20 (j = 1) and live up to 100 years (J = 80)
subject to time and cohort dependent survival probability π
choose labor supply l endogenously until exogenous retirement age ¯J (forced to
retire)
optimize remaining lifetime utility derived from leisure 1 − l and consumption c
Uj,t =
J−j
s=0
δs πj+s,t+s
πj,t
u(cj+s,t+s, lj+s,t+s)
with
u(c, l) = log(cφ
(1 − l)1−φ
)
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16. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Agents
receive market clearing wage for labor
receive market clearing interest rate on private savings
receive pension income + unintentional bequests
pay taxes
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17. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Agents
receive market clearing wage for labor
receive market clearing interest rate on private savings
receive pension income + unintentional bequests
pay taxes
Subject to the budget constraint
(1 + τc
t )cj,t + sj,t = (1 − τl
t )(1 − τι
)wj,tlj,t ← labor income
+ (1 + (1 − τk
t )rt)sj−1,t−1 ← capital income
+ (1 − τl
t )pι
j,t ← pension income
+ bj,t ← bequests
− Υt ← lump-sum tax
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18. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Firms
Perfectly competitive representative firm
Standard Cobb-Douglas production function
Yt = Kα
t (ztLt)1−α
Profit maximization implies
wt = zt(1 − α)kα
t
rt = αkα−1
t − d
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19. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Government
collects taxes on earnings, interest and consumption (sum up to T)
spends a fixed share of GDP on government consumption G
collects social security contributions and pays out pensions
of the DB and NDC systems
subsidyt = τι
¯J−1
j=1
wj,tlj,t −
J
j= ¯J
pj,tNj,t
services debt D and targets a fixed long-run debt/GDP ratio
lump sum tax Υ adjusts to satisfy the government budget constraint in steady
state
consumption tax τC adjusts to satisfy the long-term debt/GDP target
Gt + subsidyt + (1 + rt)Dt−1 = Tt + Dt + Υt
J
j=1
Nj,t
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20. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Pension system
Initial steady state: defined benefit
Exogenous contribution rate τ and an exogenous replacement rate ρ
pDB
¯J,t = ρ · wage in last working year
indexed by 25% of total payroll growth
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21. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Pension system
Initial steady state: defined benefit
Exogenous contribution rate τ and an exogenous replacement rate ρ
pDB
¯J,t = ρ · wage in last working year
indexed by 25% of total payroll growth
Reform: partially funded defined contribution
Exogenous contribution rate τ and actuarially fair individual accounts
pDC
¯J,t =
accumulated sum of contributions ¯J,t
expected remaining lifetime ¯J,t
In PAYG: Contributions and pensions are indexed by 25% of total payroll growth
In funded part: return on capital, tax free
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22. Motivation Model Motivation Results
What do we actually do? Two exercises
Exercise 1 - democracy from the scratch
Compensate cohorts living at t = 0 for whatever their loss due to funding
Allow all living people to vote
Use a fiscal rule: coordinated reductions in taxes and debt if reform reversed
Final steady state: debt share same as t = 0, gradual convergence
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23. Motivation Model Motivation Results
What do we actually do? Two exercises
Exercise 1 - democracy from the scratch
Compensate cohorts living at t = 0 for whatever their loss due to funding
Allow all living people to vote
Use a fiscal rule: coordinated reductions in taxes and debt if reform reversed
Final steady state: debt share same as t = 0, gradual convergence
Exercise 2 - pension responsibility for fiscal responsibility
Reform at t = 0 is not compensated for (enlightened central planner)
Allow all living people to vote
Use all resources captured from funded pillar to reduce debt, only then allow
lower taxes
Final steady state: debt share at 30pp less than t = 0, gradual convergence
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25. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Political economy
What happens within each voting round?
Policy 1 - shift of contributions: funded ⇒ PAYG
Policy 2 - shift of pensions: annuity ⇒ benefit
Policy 3 - a combination of the two
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26. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Political economy
What happens within each voting round?
Policy 1 - shift of contributions: funded ⇒ PAYG
Policy 2 - shift of pensions: annuity ⇒ benefit
Policy 3 - a combination of the two
We run these votes in subsequent years
If consumption equivalent positive, a cohort is in favor
If a policy gains majority, it is put in place
Order of voting:
Policy 1 vs status quo → winner vs Policy 2 → winner vs Policy 3
(Dhami and al Nowaihi (2010): transitivity of preferences)
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27. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Voting results: reforms are never stable
Figure: Political support for reversing the reform
“Democracy” vs. “trading responsibilities”
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28. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Even though reversals deteriorate welfare in the long run
Figure: Welfare effects of shifting contributions (Policy 1)
“Democracy” vs. “trading responsibilities”
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29. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Even though reversals deteriorate welfare in the long run
Figure: Welfare effects of shifting pensions (Policy 2)
“Democracy” vs. “trading responsibilities”
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30. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Even though reversals deteriorate welfare in the long run (Policy 3)
Figure: Welfare effects of combined policies (shifting both contributions and pensions)
“Democracy” vs. “trading responsibilities”
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31. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Shift of pensions becomes inviable quite fast
Because it reduces pensions too much relative to delayed gains.
Winning scenarios
Voting year Winning policy
with democracy with trading resp.
2012 P3 no change
2022 P3 P3
2032 P3 P1
2042 P1 P1
2052 P1 P1
2062 P1 P1
2072 P1 P1
2082 P1 P1
2152 P1 P1
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32. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Why are reforms never stable? Lower pension benefits distant
Figure: Pension benefits for voting in 2022
“Democracy” vs. “trading responsibilities”
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33. Motivation Model Motivation Results
... taxes lower immediately...
Figure: Taxes for voting in 2022
“Democracy” vs. “trading responsibilities”
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34. Motivation Model Motivation Results
... ultimately, due to lower debt.
Figure: Pension benefits for voting in 2022
“Democracy” vs. “trading responsibilities”
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35. Motivation Model Motivation Results
Conclusions
We simulate subsequent voting rounds on potential pension reform reversals
to find out when does the initial reform become politically stable
The voting scenarios contain policies deteriorating welfare in the long run
We find that
funded system is never politically stable vis-a-vis to PAYG system
annuity becomes preferred to benefit
how internally consistent is that?
Our model does not need political risk, business cycles, etc.
Pension reform reversion is preferred if it reduces taxes for the living cohorts
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