PMexpo 2017 - 27 ottobre 2017 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Project complexity and human behavior Carl Belack https://www.pmexpo.it/2017/programma/r010tr

1. © 2017 Carl Belack Consulting. All rights reserved.
PROJECT COMPLEXITY AND
HUMAN BEHAVIOR
Minimizing Unconscious Bias in Decision Making
Un evento organizzato da:

2. © 2017 Carl Belack Consulting. All rights reserved.
Complex projects – complex systems within complex
systems
Organizational System
Business Sector System

3. © 2017 Carl Belack Consulting. All rights reserved.
• Major project complexity categories
• Human Behavior
• Systems Behavior
• Ambiguity

4. © 2017 Carl Belack Consulting. All rights reserved.
Behavior governed by the brain
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm
ons/a/ad/Human_brain_female_side_view.PN
G
• Evolution of brain slower than
evolution of society and its
technology
• SAFETY first
• Negativity bias
• Non-conscious predominates

5. © 2017 Carl Belack Consulting. All rights reserved.
Technology and distractions
https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7657/
17285223414_227d4e8727_b.jpg

6. © 2017 Carl Belack Consulting. All rights reserved.
S.A.F.E.T.Y.TM Model

7. © 2017 Carl Belack Consulting. All rights reserved.
Negativity bias
Cortisol and
Adrenalin
Dopamine
Fear Circuits Reward Circuits
5 X MORE THREAT-SEEKING NEURONS
THAN REWARD-SEEKING
*Used with permission of NeuroSense Consulting

8. © 2017 Carl Belack Consulting. All rights reserved.
Non-conscious  generally effective judgements
Except for

9. © 2017 Carl Belack Consulting. All rights reserved.
Example: optimism bias/planning fallacy 
unachievable project expectations
■ Optimism bias: We believe
we’re at less of a risk of
experiencing negative events
than others.
■ Planning Fallacy: We
underestimate probable time-
to-complete and costs-to-
complete and overestimate
benefits. $2.6 Bn $15Bn (+$9Bn interest)

10. © 2017 Carl Belack Consulting. All rights reserved.
Methods to mitigate biases
■ Use external methods
■ Strengthen brain’s ’braking system’
■ Train the brain

11. © 2017 Carl Belack Consulting. All rights reserved.
External Method - Reference Class Forecasting
Adapted from Lovallo, D. and Kahneman, D. Delusions
of Success, Harvard Business Review, July 2003

12. © 2017 Carl Belack Consulting. All rights reserved.
Strengthen the ‘braking system’
■ Strengthen the PFC
■ ARM
– Accept
– Recognize
– Minimize
 Mindfulness meditation
training
 Sleep
 Exercise
Limbic System
(Subcortex)
Prefrontal Cortex
(Cortex)

13. © 2017 Carl Belack Consulting. All rights reserved.
Train the brain
■ Computer-based training
– Promote positive outlook
– Minimize specific biases