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@danielwalsh
Agile in Context
the future of Agile
Daniel Walsh
August 2017 Orlando, FL
@danielwalsh
@danielwalsh
What is a Heuristic?
2 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
@danielwalsh
What is a Heuristic?
Rule of thumb
3 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
le pif
(the nose)...
@danielwalsh4 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
@danielwalsh
What is a Heuristic?
A heuristic is anything that provides a plausible aid or direction in the solution of a ...
@danielwalsh
heuristics produce accurate decisions by
exploiting the structures of information in the
environments in whic...
@danielwalsh7 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
Everything in
engineering is heuristic
-Billy Vaughn ...
@danielwalsh8 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
Everything in Agile is heuristic
Two to four
week ite...
@danielwalsh9 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
*See Billy Vaugh Koen - A Discussion of the Method, O...
@danielwalsh Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.10
The future of Agile is one where
practitioners under...
@danielwalsh Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.11
Cynefin Framework
kuh-nev-in
Three-Circle Model
@danielwalsh
The nature of the system
determines the way we can
know things, how we make
decisions, and how we act.
-David...
@danielwalsh
The Obvious Domain
Direct Cause-Effect Relationship
13 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved....
@danielwalsh
The Complicated Domain
Indirect Cause-Effect Relationship
14 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights res...
@danielwalsh
The Complex Domain
Interconnected Cause-Effect Relationship
15
best practice
Obvious
Complicated
good practic...
@danielwalsh
The Chaotic Domain
Unknowable Cause-Effect Relationship
16 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reser...
@danielwalsh
The Disordered Domain
Indeterminate Cause-Effect Relationship
17 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights...
@danielwalsh
Cynefin Metaphors | Games
18 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
Obvious
ComplicatedComple...
@danielwalsh
Cynefin Metaphors | Signals
19 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
Obvious
ComplicatedComp...
@danielwalsh
Agile in Context | Software Testing
20 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
Obvious
Complic...
@danielwalsh
Agile in Context | Prioritization
21 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
Obvious
Complicat...
@danielwalsh
Agile in Context | Estimates
22 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
Obvious
ComplicatedCom...
@danielwalsh
Three-Circle Model Perspectives
23 Presentation Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC & Material Copyright Erik Si...
@danielwalsh
The Three-Circle Model Regions
24 Presentation Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC & Material Copyright Erik Sim...
@danielwalsh
Example: Go-to-Market Planning
Current Focus
1. Pain Points
2. Industry Trends
3. Offering
4. Competitive Pos...
@danielwalsh26 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
@danielwalsh27 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
Beware the certainty of
the captured expert
-Billy V...
@danielwalsh28 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
Isn’t that an interesting
heuristic.
-Billy Vaughn K...
@danielwalsh Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.29
The future of Agile is one where practitioners
under...
@danielwalsh
References
Billy Vaugh Koen - A Discussion of the Method, Oxford University Press 2003
David Snowden and Mary...
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Agile in Context: Cynefin Framework,Three-circle model &the future of Agile

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The future of Agile is one where practitioners understand not only how, but also why Agile methods and practices work across different contexts. All of Agile is heuristic. A heuristic is anything that provides a plausible aid or direction in the solution of a problem - not a universal truth.

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Agile in Context: Cynefin Framework,Three-circle model &the future of Agile

  1. 1. @danielwalsh Agile in Context the future of Agile Daniel Walsh August 2017 Orlando, FL @danielwalsh
  2. 2. @danielwalsh What is a Heuristic? 2 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
  3. 3. @danielwalsh What is a Heuristic? Rule of thumb 3 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. le pif (the nose) 目の測定 (measuring with the eye) Educated guess SWAG Order of magnitude First cut Engineering judgement Guiding principles Faustregel (the fist) Ha пальцами (by the fingers) Quick and dirty Guesstimate
  4. 4. @danielwalsh4 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
  5. 5. @danielwalsh What is a Heuristic? A heuristic is anything that provides a plausible aid or direction in the solution of a problem* • reduces the search time for problem solving • does not guarantee a solution to a problem • can offer conflicting advice • acceptance depends on the immediate context instead of an absolute standard Example engineering heuristics: • Solve problems by successive approximations (trial and error) • Divide the problem into its constituent parts (divide and conquer) • Do what worked last time (yesterday’s weather) 5 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. *Reference: Billy Vaugh Koen - A Discussion of the Method, Oxford University Press 2003
  6. 6. @danielwalsh heuristics produce accurate decisions by exploiting the structures of information in the environments in which they are applied* 6 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. *Reference: Gerd Gigerenzer - Environments That Make Us Smart
  7. 7. @danielwalsh7 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. Everything in engineering is heuristic -Billy Vaughn Koen Billy Vaugh Koen - A Discussion of the Method, Oxford University Press 2003
  8. 8. @danielwalsh8 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. Everything in Agile is heuristic Two to four week iterations Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Definition of Done Daily Standup LeSS SAFe DAD Nexus Scrum at Scale Responding to change over following a plan Face-to-face conversation is the best form of communication Best architectures, requirements, and designs emerge from self-organizing teams Velocity tracking User stories
  9. 9. @danielwalsh9 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. *See Billy Vaugh Koen - A Discussion of the Method, Oxford University Press 2003 Heuristics are dependent on immediate context instead of absolute truth
  10. 10. @danielwalsh Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.10 The future of Agile is one where practitioners understand not only how, but also why Agile methods and practices work across different contexts.
  11. 11. @danielwalsh Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.11 Cynefin Framework kuh-nev-in Three-Circle Model
  12. 12. @danielwalsh The nature of the system determines the way we can know things, how we make decisions, and how we act. -David Snowden 12 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
  13. 13. @danielwalsh The Obvious Domain Direct Cause-Effect Relationship 13 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. Disorder best practice Obvious Rigid constraints No degrees of freedom sense-categorize-respond Standards Checklists Best-Known Methods
  14. 14. @danielwalsh The Complicated Domain Indirect Cause-Effect Relationship 14 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. best practice Obvious Complicated good practice Rigid constraints No degrees of freedom Governing constraints Tightly coupled sense-analyze-respond sense-categorize-respond Communities of Practice Experts Better-Known Methods
  15. 15. @danielwalsh The Complex Domain Interconnected Cause-Effect Relationship 15 best practice Obvious Complicated good practice Complex emergent practice Rigid constraints No degrees of freedom Governing constraints Tightly coupled Enabling constraints Loosely coupled probe-sense-respond sense-analyze-respond sense-categorize-respond Pattern Recognition Iterative Learning Adaptive, Resilient Methods Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission.
  16. 16. @danielwalsh The Chaotic Domain Unknowable Cause-Effect Relationship 16 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. Disorder best practice Obvious Complicated good practice Complex emergent practice Chaotic novel practice Rigid constraints No degrees of freedom Governing constraints Tightly coupled Enabling constraints Loosely coupled Lacking constraints Not coupled act-sense-respond probe-sense-respond sense-analyze-respond sense-categorize-respond Radical Innovation Crisis Management Stabilizing Methods
  17. 17. @danielwalsh The Disordered Domain Indeterminate Cause-Effect Relationship 17 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. Disorder best practice Obvious Complicated good practice Complex emergent practice Chaotic novel practice Rigid constraints No degrees of freedom Governing constraints Tightly coupled Enabling constraints Loosely coupled No constraints Not coupled act-sense-respond probe-sense-respond sense-analyze-respond sense-categorize-respond
  18. 18. @danielwalsh Cynefin Metaphors | Games 18 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. Obvious ComplicatedComplex Chaotic Disorder Coin Toss BlackjackTexas Hold’em Poker Food Fight Calvinball* Reference: http://calvinandhobbes.wikia.com/wiki/Calvinball
  19. 19. @danielwalsh Cynefin Metaphors | Signals 19 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. Obvious ComplicatedComplex Chaotic Disorder Roadblock Traffic LightRound About Fire Alarm
  20. 20. @danielwalsh Agile in Context | Software Testing 20 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. Obvious ComplicatedComplex Chaotic Disorder Unit Test Regression Testing User Testing Chaos Monkey* *See The Netflix Simian Army post on Medium, 2011
  21. 21. @danielwalsh Agile in Context | Prioritization 21 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. Obvious ComplicatedComplex Chaotic Disorder Take the best Weighted-shortest Job First Multiple small bets First-fit Pattern Match
  22. 22. @danielwalsh Agile in Context | Estimates 22 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. Obvious ComplicatedComplex Chaotic Disorder Not Needed Estimates#NoEstimates Take Action
  23. 23. @danielwalsh Three-Circle Model Perspectives 23 Presentation Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC & Material Copyright Erik Simmons © 2017. All rights reserved. The best solutions, platforms, and products are: Marketable, profitable, and affordable : desirable, useful, and usable: Manufacturable, functional, and consumable: Business Usage Technology
  24. 24. @danielwalsh The Three-Circle Model Regions 24 Presentation Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC & Material Copyright Erik Simmons © 2017. All rights reserved. Compelling solutions are found in the center, balancing all three perspectives A system lacking sufficient coherence in all these areas will not be successful Business Value Ingredient Capability Usage Technology
  25. 25. @danielwalsh Example: Go-to-Market Planning Current Focus 1. Pain Points 2. Industry Trends 3. Offering 4. Competitive Positioning 5. Use Cases 6. Capability 7. HW & SW Stack 8. Go To Market Plan 9. Alpha demo Recommendations from 3CM 10. Business model (revenue streams, monetization scheme, channel plans,…) 11. Technical collateral (architectural specs, Product & SW Development Kits) 25 Business Value Ingredient Capability Usage Technology 3 4 1 5 6 7 9 11 2 8 10 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
  26. 26. @danielwalsh26 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.
  27. 27. @danielwalsh27 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. Beware the certainty of the captured expert -Billy Vaughn Koen Billy Vaugh Koen - A Discussion of the Method, Oxford University Press 2003
  28. 28. @danielwalsh28 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved. Isn’t that an interesting heuristic. -Billy Vaughn Koen #InterestingHeuristic Billy Vaugh Koen - A Discussion of the Method, Oxford University Press 2003
  29. 29. @danielwalsh Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.29 The future of Agile is one where practitioners understand not only how, but also why Agile methods and practices work across different contexts. Q&A daniel.walsh@nuCognitive.com
  30. 30. @danielwalsh References Billy Vaugh Koen - A Discussion of the Method, Oxford University Press 2003 David Snowden and Mary Boone - A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making, HBR Introduction to the Three-Circle Model Webinar - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5cVexfdsVg 30 Copyright © 2017 nuCognitive LLC. All rights reserved.

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