1) The document analyzes the potential for the Philippines to emerge as the epicenter of Islamic State's ambitions in Southeast Asia due to existing terrorist groups, domestic political conditions, and a lack of effective response from the Filipino government. 2) It asserts that without proper recognition and action against extremism by the Filipino government, terrorist activities in the Philippines will continue to escalate and Islamic State will be able to use the country to facilitate operations across the region. 3) However, for Islamic State to fully establish a headquarters in the Philippines, it would need to overcome challenges such as a lack of unified leadership among terrorist groups and ensuring a steady flow of financing.

1. ISS Risk Special Report:
Philippines – Emergent Epicentre to Islamic State’s Southeast
Asian Ambitions?
9 May, 2016

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Executive summary
With its dominant presence in Iraq and Syria, it is sometimes easy to discount the expansive
scope of the Islamic State’s ambitions of a global caliphate. Our observations and research
indicate that, regardless of the success of ISIS in this stronghold, the group is undoubtedly
growing in other parts of the world. This report focuses on the future prospects of ISIS in SE-
Asia, contending that, ceteris paribus, the Philippines will soon be the headquarters for ISIS
in the region.
This report provides the rationale behind this assertion by elucidating the pre-existing
presence of terrorist organisations across the Philippines in light of the current domestic
political and social conditions. Additional analysis of how regional neighbours, most notably,
Malaysia and Indonesia are handling extremism are additional factors that support our
thesis. We assert that the Philippines will emerge as the epicentre of Islamic extremism in
SE-Asia, but there is no doubt that the entire region will be affected by the establishment of a
base in the region. This base will aid in facilitating the movement of followers, planning
attacks, fundraising, and cultivating strategic alliances between local terrorist groups.
The Filipino government is not doing nearly enough to curtail the radical threat of ISIS or,
more generally, terrorism in the country. Juxtaposed with the strong-armed efforts by the
Malaysian and Indonesian governments in their respective homelands, the use of the
Philippines as a jihadist functionary is being ever more exacerbated as alternative operating
options in the region dwindle. One of the major issues in the Philippines is the
underestimation of the influence of ISIS, illustrated by the labelling of local extremist
networks as ‘criminal gangs’ or ‘bandits,’ rather than Islamic extremists. Currently, the
majority of SE-Asian terrorist groups have training camps in Southern Philippines and the
state has become the major transit hub for those traveling to Syria. Unfortunately, without
proper recognition of the issue by the Filipino government, terrorist activities will only
continue to escalate.
There are, however, potential pitfalls that ISIS would have to overcome before successfully
establishing a headquarters in the Philippines. One is the lack of collectively recognised
leadership. Without this, there is little sense of unity between ISIS disciples as there is no
one to align varying agendas and objectives. With a plethora of breakaway groups in the
country, a leader that can unify the fractions is vital to establishing a strong SE-Asian base.
Finances are another matter that ISIS affiliates in the Philippines must address in order to
secure a headquarters in the state. Records from Mosul indicate that local cells must

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contribute 20% of their generated income to other local and provincial cells, placing a
significant financial demand on pledged organisations. Consequently, there has been an
increase in kidnappings, ransoming, piracy, and extortion across the Philippines, but
especially in Mindanao, where jihadist groups have the greatest presence. In order to
sustain a successful base, ISIS will have to ensure a steady flow of income.
The state of the situation is dependent upon the outcome of two major occurrences: the
results of the election and the status of the BBL - both of which will occur in the next few
months. The outcome of the election may usher in a new government with greater concern
for and capacity to confront the growing terrorism problem across the country. Conversely, it
could usher in a new leader that maintains the status quo of inactively addressing the
situation for another 6 years. This ties directly to the second major outcome, which is the
passing, postponement, or rejection of the BBL. Should it pass, Islamic separatism and
Islamic fundamentalism will be pitched against each other, slowing down the aspirations of
ISIS in the country. If it does not pass, the unchanged dynamic will perpetuate
circumstances that allow ISIS to operate and thrive in the area. The next few months will
essentially determine the future of terrorism and the capacity of ISIS in the Philippines.
When considering the ambitions of ISIS, no corner of the world can be left examined.
Presently as well as well as historically, SE-Asia has been rife with terrorism and the future
outlook does not appear to be any different. If the status quo continues, we predict the
circumstances in the Philippines will align with ISIS ambitions, allowing the terrorist group to
foster a thriving epicentre for regional operations.