Pakistan, a leaderless leader in economic growth potential among emerging markets paper

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When those who are given the mandate to govern, make the country ungovernable then the only way out for the civil society is to lead the way to show the leaders that those who are mislead can lead too when the time comes. It is far more important to self-govern than handing over the right to govern to those who cannot see beyond their nose.

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Pakistan, a leaderless leader in economic growth potential among emerging markets paper

  1. 1. ZHK 2013 Pakistan, a leaderless leader in economic growth potential among Emerging Markets… Pakistan’s Image and Repositioning Pakistan When those who are given the mandate to govern, make the country ungovernable then the only way out for the civil society is to lead the way to show the leaders that those who are mislead can lead too when the time comes. It is far more important to self-govern than handing over the right to govern to those who cannot see beyond their nose. Pakistan’s only hope is the country’s youth. Ironically, youth is allowed to work and vote for political parties but they are not allowed to form student societies and unions in colleges and universities. The college and university students exit the educational institutions and enter into a bigger university of practical life. Whatever they learn helps them in laying the foundation of their personal career and family life around that. Politics is very much a part of their lives too. In the past, when student unions were not banned in colleges and universities, the students played an important role in country’s politics too. How they do that in advanced countries is a very important subject for research. Zahid Hussain Khalid ICMR 2013 International Conference on Emerging Markets, Superior University, Lahore, Pakistan ZHK 2013
  2. 2. POSITIONING PAKISTAN NATIONAL IMAGE Introduction: Questioning Pakistan’s Economic Growth Potential………………………………………………….……..………03 Pakistan’s Real Economic Growth Potential…………………………………………………………………………………………………..….04 Global Perspective: Future Work Skills and Six Drivers of Change……………………………………………………………………………………………………….……..05 Seven Key Corporate Challenges and Actions……..……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..06 Global State of Talent………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….07 The Value Chain of Talent……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………07 A Major Concern: Employability………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….08 Contextual Aspects of Governance, Capacity Levels and Evaluation………………………………………………………………….09 Positioning Pakistan on the World Economic Map of the Rapid Growth Economies………………………………………….10 How is Pakistan looked at?.........................................................................................................................................................................10 The Causes and Consequences of the Negative National Image………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..11 Nine unattended flaws in the System of Governance….……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..11 Three Immediate Challenges…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….11 The First Step: Put the House in Order………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..12 From Where to Begin: …Repositioning Pakistan………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….12 Five Territories on the National Activity Map…………………………………………………………………………………………………….12 Why Five Territories on National Activity Map?.................................................................................................13 Social Activity………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………13 Political Activity…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..14 Economic Activity………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..15 Diplomatic Activity………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………16 Military Activity…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..18 National Activity Plan from Civil Society’s Perspective………………………………………………………………………………………18 Social Activity: Action………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….18 Political Activity: Action………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………20 Economic Activity: Action……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………21 Diplomatic Activity: Action………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….22 CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….24 AUTHOR’S PROFILE……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………24 READING LIST……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………25 Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 2
  3. 3. Pakistan, a leaderless leader in economic growth potential among Emerging Markets… By Zahid Hussain Khalid INTRODUCTION: Questioning Pakistan’s Growth Potential We fail to see Pakistan among the top 25 rapid growth markets, Pakistan is neither a contributor nor a beneficiary of ten years of massive growth reflected in an investment of US$2.9 trillion by Asian companies in regional and global expansion during 2003 to 2011 and Pakistan is also not among 25 countries which have been placed by Earnst and Young’s Rapid-growth Markets at the highest, medium and the lowest risk levels respectively. Is this situation in Pakistan permanent? Will it never change? Is there any room for optimism? CFO Innovation Asia Business Outlook Survey of first quarter 2013 notices sharp increase in optimism on the growth prospects in Asia based on a cautious listing of strengths, willingness and concerns of Asian corporate leaders. Do Pakistani people and political and corporate leaders also have any reason to be optimist of their country’s and corporate sector’s growth prospects? Pakistan has more than one reason to be optimist: Country’s ideal geographical location; a predominantly young population and demographic dividend for timely absorbing the economic shock waves across different social and economic segments of the society during the most critical period of Pakistan’s social, political, economic, diplomatic and military history spanned over a period of more than a decade; people of Pakistan’s response to diplomatic and military provocation as well as ongoing clearly visible foreign military action other than war within its boundaries compounded by a state of lawlessness and complete failure of law enforcement agencies with patience; and Pakistan’s more than humble nuclear capability posture are more than convincing to believe that room for optimism will always remain there for Pakistani leaders and the people to get up, Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 3
  4. 4. go and get counted not only in Asian but global growth markets and five territories on the national and global activity maps, a term coined and introduced by author of this paper. PAKISTAN’S REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH POTENTIAL: Pakistan is one of the few ideally located human and natural resource rich countries of the world. Very few countries have such a rich profile of the tangible and intangible elements of national power: ideal geographical location; highest percentage of youth in the population mix; immense potential in social, economic, political, diplomatic and military leadership; the most challenging and promising diplomatic horizon displaying a rainbow of the possibility of extension and the fear of contraction of borders in at least three sides of the country’s boundary lines; and one of the mightiest military force in the world. POSITIONING PAKISTAN Socially, 70 percent population under 30 years Economically, one of few countries with world’s highest Regional GDP Politically, genuine national security-risk free patriotic leadership? Geographically, the posibility of territorial expansion and contraction in all directions cannot be ruled out Militarily, one of the world’s less than a dozen most powerful countries Pakistan’s Regional GDP, keeping the four out of five overwhelmingly positive aspects of country’s tangible and intangible elements of national power in mind, makes it one of the most attractive places for regional strategic investment in South Asia. Regional GDP, according to Euromoney magazine, assesses a country’s catchment area in terms of the GDP of all economies within 500 kilometers of its borders. While Pakistan remains hanged between dismal performance and more than a dozen reasons for optimism, “Between 2012 and 2017, the share of world CP market growth coming from emerging Asia,” according to Earnst and Young’s analysis from Euromonitor data, June 2013, ‘Brand New Order – Profit or lose Balancing the growth-profit paradox for global consumer products companies and retailers in Asia’s emerging markets,’ “will rise from 29% to 38%.”Pakistan evidently has the potential to contribute more than any other country in the region by drawing and re-drawing natural and human resources maps and seriously working on them to make them appear on the world economic map. Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 4
  5. 5. TIMELINE OF TAKEOVER BY CHINA AND INDIA AS GLOBAL ECONOMIC LEADERS It is rightly perceived that China is moving ahead cautiously as a global economic growth leader; India’s claim to third position in global economic leadership is clouded with doubts at present, though not out of reach yet, and Pakistan is striving for an “externally borrowed” breathing space. Will Pakistan be able to even join the race for leadership among globally acknowledged leaders? Yes, Pakistan can by relying on its own natural and human resources governed and managed by responsible and cautiously responsive political and corporate leaders. GLOBAL SCENARIO: FUTURE WORK SKILLS AND SIX DRIVERS OF CHANGE Future Work Skills 2020 Report has listed Six Drivers of Change: extreme longevity; rise of smart Six Drivers of Change machines and systems; computational world; 1: Extreme Longevity Increasing global life-spans change the nature of careers new media ecology; super-structured organizations; and globally connected world. The and learning 2: Rise of smart machines and systems Workplace automation nudges human workers out of message in this report for 70% young Pakistanis rote, epetitive tasks 3: Computational world is to grow up; familiarize with smart machines Massive increases in the sensors and processing power make the world a programmable system and systems; connect with computational 4: New Media Ecology world; try to know the architects and New communication tools require new media literacies beyond text understand the reach and impact of new media ecology, found or become part of superstructured organizations and prepare to become active citizens of globally connected world. 5: Super-structured organizations Social technologies drive new forms of production and value creation 6: Globally connected world Increased global interconnectivity puts diversity and adaptability at the center of organizational structures SOURCE: Future Work Skills 2020, Institute for the Future for the University of Phoenix Research Institute 2011 Professional proficiency, according to Future Work Skill 2020 report, requires ten skills: sense- making; social intelligence; novel and adaptative thinking; cross-cultural competency; computational thinking; new media literacy; transdisciplinarity; design-mindset; cognitive load management; and virtual collaboration. Young Pakistanis have the ability to understand the dynamics and pace of innovation in today’s hyperconnected world and find a place for their genuine intellectual, professional and entrepreneurial Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 5
  6. 6. capabilities in the global markets. Thousands of young Pakistanis are seen well placed in global conglomerates and they are the real hope of tomorrow’s Pakistan. FUTURE WORK SKILLS 2020 Pakistani youth needs to focus on developing a sense of inquisitive observation, meaningful probe, clear experimenting, understanding, consistent convincingly concluding, patiently pre-testing, conclusively succeeding, aesthetically packaging, extensively networking, selectively communicating, and technically SOURCE: Future Work Skills 2020, Institute for the Future for the University of Phoenix Research Institute 2011 collaborating. SEVEN KEY CORPORATE CHALLENGES AND ACTIONS: Accenture in their report, “Growth Journeys: Helping Asian companies realize the value of their international expansion strategies,” have highlighted seven key corporate challenges: decision-making processes and authority are over-concentrated in global headquarters; overseas offices' lack of respect for the leadership authority of headquarters; lack of clear structure in top leadership roles and processes; leadership across functions and geographies lacking alignment on the common goals of the global organization; governance structures are not clearly understood by staff outside of the home country; lack of ability to hold overseas offices accountable for not complying with processes and procedures; weak cross-border collaboration and listed seven actions to continue moving on smoothly KEY CORPORATE CHALLENGES AND ACTIONS KEY C H A on growth track emphasizing the need for: Decision-making processes and authority are overconcentrated in global headquarters L L E Mentoring and coaching programs focused on global leadership mentoring and coaching programs focused on global leadership; personality and leadership ACTIONS Lack of clear structure in top leadership roles and processes Cultural sensitivity training sensitivity Regular global videoconferencing or other advanced communicat-ions conferencing or other advanced communica- Governance structures are not clearly understood by staff outside of the home country E S Personality and leadership assessment for global leadership Leadership across functions and geographies lacking alignment on the common goals of the global organization N G Overseas offices' lack of respect for the leadership authority of headquarters Connecting talent across the global company into teams or workshops Lack of ability to hold overseas offices accountable for not complying with processes and procedures Weak cross-border collaboration assessment for global leadership; cultural training; regular global video- tions; connecting talent across the global 360-degree feedback for global leadership team members Offering international assignments and global rotation programs company into teams or workshops; 360-degree feedback for global leadership team members; offering international assignments and global rotation programs. SOURCE: “Growth Journeys: Helping Asian companies realize the value of their international expansion strategies,” Accenture Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 6
  7. 7. Pakistanis are capable of accepting the challenges and always found ready to come into action whenever they were assigned the task to do so in the interest of their country. But, instead of country benefitting from their actions, the rewards ended up in foreign bank accounts of corrupt political leaders, criminal corporate mafias, bureaucrats and army generals. PEOPLE WANT CHANGE! TO BEGIN WITH, FOCUS ON COUNTRY’S HIGHLY TALENTED YOUTH… GLOBAL STATE OF TALENT: For that the OECD’s “Education at a Glance” has The present global state of talent with the right skills, Projected to 2030 prepared a Global State of Talent with Right Skills Projections Map 2030 highlighting medium and strong employability challenges, talent shortage and reduced demand and greater talent availability and demand. This map also indicates that Pakistan is among countries with greater talent availability and demand. The greater availability and demand of SOURCE: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2006), 155./ “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013 talent in Pakistan underlines the need for the development of Pakistan’s Human Resource Maps and their scientific alignment of demand and supply of world class talent well-equipped with national and global competencies. THE VALUE CHAIN OF TALENT: THE VALUE CHAIN OF TALENT SOURCE: “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013 The Value Chain of Talent published in “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, needs slight amendment to incorporate , Shakespeare’s “Seven Stages of Life” in the value chain. Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 7
  8. 8. In Pakistan’s case, the Value Chain of Talent demands planning for a citizen’s “Seven Stages of Life” from early childhood to either entrepreneurship or employment and a post-retirement concern-free life. A MAJOR CONCERN: EMPLOYABILITY The Importance of Equitable Access and Good-Quality Education to the Private Sector (Non-exhaustive list) “Global employability studies rightly indicate that from 2011 to 2030, the availability and demand for talent will increase in emerging market economies such as China, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil. However, in these emerging market economies, despite a rising pool of available workers, ‘employability’ will appear as a major concern. Employability SOURCE: “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013 refers to an individual’s readiness for work with foundational skills (i.e., literacy and numeracy) and transferable skills, such as problem solving, communication and critical thinking” concluding that, “Unless education enrollment and completion are strengthened in these economies, the eligible working age population may continue to experience a denial of more productive and remunerative opportunities, which will have a negative impact on their standard of living, the growth potential of businesses in these locations and the overall growth of these economies.” The report has also emphasized the need for “The Importance of Equitable Access” and “Good-Quality Education” to the Private Sector judiciously demanding the reduction in the “talent acquisition and retention” and “learning and development” costs. Ironically, the talent acquisition and retention costs are gradually decreasing un-proportionately to cost of learning and pre-recruitment development self-financed by young people and their parents. Have a look: MONTHLY HHOUSEHOLD BUDGET ALLOCATIONS ON EDUCATION SOURCE: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Demand, Q1 2013 Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets “I CANNOTAFFORD EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES WHERE I LIVE.” SOURCE: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Demand, Q1 2013 Page 8
  9. 9. So, what the governments need to do is to bring down the enrollment and tuition fee through a mix of corporate sponsorships and government subsidiaries in the developing world to an affordable level and improve the quality of education for all irrespective of the social and economic status of the students and their parents. The present system of education across the globe is evidently producing classes of different levels of employees who rarely move from lower managerial level to higher managerial levels and this will be noticed not in the distant but the near future. The most important aspect of this ironic situation is the need for understanding the seriousness of the psychological and social dimensions of this issue before it’s too late. ANALYZING POTENTIAL RETURNS TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR FROM INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION Does this yardstick to measure “profitability of investment in education: concepts and methods,” have a module to evaluate the return on investment to Pakistan or to that matter any other country? SOURCE: “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013 CONTEXTUAL ASPECTS OF GOVERNANCE, CAPACITY LEVELS AND EVALUATION: The Framework for Institutional Performance Evaluation consists of Four Cycles of Preparedness: Four Cycle of Preparedness 5 Motivations 6 Environments 7 Capacity linkages and 4 Performance parameters. This frame work prepared by Universalia (1985) and IDRC (1995) provides a simple to follow guideline for political and corporate governance and its evaluation. SOURCE: Universalia 1985; IDRC 1991; Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance, The World Bank 2011. Do our systems of political and corporate governance and education meet any of the criteria such as motivation, environment, capacity and performance in any walk of life? Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 9
  10. 10. PROCESS CUSTODIANSHIP AND GOVERNANCE IN DIFFERENT CONTEXTS: Mohammad A. Jaljouli, author of “Evaluation Systems as Strategy Management Tools: Building Dubai’s Institutional Learning Capacity,” published in “Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance,” has illustrated process custodianship and governance in different contexts revolving around: SOURCE: Mohammad A. Jaljouli, “Evaluation Systems as Strategy Management Tools: Building Dubai’s Institutional Learning Capacity,/Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance, The World Bank 2011. National Agenda Government Strategy Map and Sector Strategy Maps covering Health, Education, Social Development and Economic Development Does the government of Pakistan have an Integrated “Contextual National Agenda,” and a “Set of Natural and Human Resource Maps?” This paper will discuss the demand of Five Territories on National Activity Map emphasizing the need for the preparation of an Integrated District, Provincial and National Agenda and a set of “Natural and Human Maps.” THREE LEVELS OF CAPACITY Caroline Heider, in her paper, “A Conceptual Framework for Developing Evaluation Capacities: Building on Good Practice,” has also illustrated and discussed Three Levels of Capacity: enabling environment; institutional framework and knowledgeable, skilled and competent individual. SOURCE: Caroline Heider, A Conceptual Framework for Developing Evaluation Capacities: Building on Good Practice, “Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance,” The World Bank 2011. POSITION PAKISTAN ON THE WORLD ECONOMIC MAP OF RAPID-GROWTH ECONOMIES: HOW IS PAKISTAN LOOKED AT? STEP 1: Positioning Pakistan on the world economic map STEP 2: How is Pakistan looked at? Lack of national consensus Crime mafias and terrorist groups Communication deadlock …Pakistan’s National Image POSITIONING PAKISTAN NATIONAL IMAGE Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 10
  11. 11. THE CAUSES AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE NEGATIVE NATIONAL IMAGE: Pakistan’s national image is result of a Cycle of Nine Social and Economic evils: Illiteracy and Ignorance  result in ILLITERACY AND Unemployment  results in IGNORANCE SECTARIANIS M AND Poverty  results in UNEMPLOYMENT TERRORISM Deprivation  results in RELIGIOUS, ETHNIC AND Psychological and Physical Stress  result in With no plan in POLITICAL PREJUDICES hand and funds Crime and Corruption  result in INJUSTICE AND VIOLATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS Injustice and Violation of Human Rights  result in Religious, Ethnic and Political Prejudices  result in POVERTY available to break this DEPRIVATION Cycle of Nine CRIME AND PSYCHOLOGICAL Social and STRESS CORRUPTION Sectarianism and Terrorism. Economic Evils NINE UNATTENDED FLAWS IN THE SYSTEM OF GOVERNANCE CARELESS RULERS SELF-SERVING PUBLIC SERVANTS IRRESPONSIBLE CORPORATE CONGLOMERATES PARALYZED LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES INCOMPETENT FISCAL AND MONETARY MANAGERS INEFFECTIVE DEBT MANAGEMENT EXTERNAL RELIANCE FOR BUDGETARY TARGETS ECONOMIC STRANGULATION AND IN-DOUBT SOVEREIGNTY PERPETUAL STATE OF UNCERTAINTY AND IRRESPONSIBLE MEDIA OWNERS AND JOURNALISTS This is the dilemma of the world’s most powerful human and natural resource rich leaderless country of the leaderless Muslim world..! Read the details here: http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/the-end-of-the-independent-muslim-world THREE IMMEDIATE CHALLENGES: Disconfigured System of Governance Lack of Consensus and The Way Out Read the details here: http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/the-greatest-media-and-advertising-challenge-of-the-most-powerful-humanand-resource-rich-country-of-the-muslim-world Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 11
  12. 12. THE FIRST STEP: PUT THE HOUSE IN ORDER What you see here is a disconfigured system of governance Entire nation is entrapped in something that is not part of any plan! Read the details here: http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/a-review-of-thefive-territories-on-the-national-activity-map FROM WHERE TO BEGIN? … REPOSITION PAKISTAN An integrated district, provincial and federal Governance Plan based on a set of natural and human resource maps in line with country’s tangible and intangible elements of national power and Strategic National Economic Vision and its alignment with the demands of Globalization for safeguarding national interest and benefitting from resulting gains of keeping pace with Global Economic Growth. FIVE TERRITORIES ON THE NATIONAL ACTIVITY MAP: Geographic Location Military Demographic Strength Mix CIVIL SOCIETY? Leadership Economic Growth See where the pieces of the puzzle will ultimately fit in… WHY FIVE TERRITORIES ON THE NATIONAL ACTIVITY MAP? Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 12
  13. 13. National Activity Map consists of social, political, economic, diplomatic and military Political thematic territories. Each thematic territory needs a leader and leadership failure in any one SOCIAL Military Civil Society or more than one of the thematic territories on Economic National Activity Map results in nothing but social unrest. The social unrest demands a review of its dimensions proportionately linked with the nature and seriousness of failure in any Diplomatic one or more than one of the remaining four territories. When the causes of social unrest are discussed in the corridors of power, the political leaders discuss the political; economic leaders highlight the economic; diplomatic leaders present bilateral and/or multilateral diplomatic; and military leaders emphasize the military perspectives highlighting their respective roles, needs and plans of actions minus the perspective and needs of the people who have entrusted them with a leadership role for the protection of their interests. What do we find missing here? Who is supposed to highlight the social sector perspective? Yes, federal and provincial social sector related ministers and genuine civil society leaders supposedly represent the people but isn’t their social sector development agenda prepared and financed by international donors? Consequently, who will they represent and report to? The will obviously represent and report to those who holds the purse! Read the details here: http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/pakistans-independence-day-message-to-government-and-people-of-pakistan SOCIAL ACTIVITY: Social territory is a nucleus around which the other four territories on the national activity map revolve. A family, therefore, is a focal point with reference to social and civil rights and responsibilities. It is, therefore, necessary to understand its role in national politics and national planning needs to focus on an individual’s seven stages of life. CIVIL SOCIETY AND THE SEVEN STATGES OF LIFE Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 13
  14. 14. Each transition of an individual’s life from one stage to the other till his death reflects a change in his role, his rights and his responsibilities as member of his family, society and the state. The family, the society and the government are supposed to design rights and obligations keeping in view a human beings needs and ability to contribute to family, society and the government. How do the families, societies and governments maintain balance between needs and obligations of an individual? The answer is focus on Delivery System. And media has a great responsibility to do that. Read the details here: http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/the-greatest-media-and-advertising-challenge-of-the-most-powerful-humanand-resource-rich-country-of-the-muslim-world POLITICAL ACTIVITY: Politics has become subservient to an “adjustable” party agenda on “day-to-day basis” instead of “manifesto focused” governance to represent the voters in democratic as well as non-democratic political systems across the globe. Agenda adjustability is a necessity that dawn on political leaders and dictators after they are voted in to wear the crown or the crown finds their heads in a country like Pakistan. They come to know only then that demands of the corridors of power are totally different from the demands of the street power. The social, political, economic, diplomatic and PARTY MANIFESTO military confusion visible in the capitals of different continents, including Pakistan, clearly PRESSURES OF GLOBALIZATION HOW TO REMAIN FOCUSED? indicates that the political leaders across the EXPECTATIONS OF VOTERS globe are unsuccessfully struggling to create a workable COALITION CONCERNS AND DAY-TO-DAY DEMANDS AND PRESSURES manifestos, balance between the expectations their party of their disappointed voters and long term national strategic vision/goals and genuine external pressures of globalization. Political situation in Pakistan is far more disturbing in view of the fact that the country is in a mess on all fronts of governance. Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 14
  15. 15. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: New financial world order in a globalized economy has exposed the economies of the countries to internal threats compounded by external visible and invisible pressures. Unhindered flow of money across borders has created a new breed of non-state entrepreneurs who do not believe in nationalism or patriotism, as the employees don’t believe in loyalty to their companies. They invest the money where the return is the highest. They are, in a way, justified in doing that because in business anywhere in the world, the single most important EASE OF DOING BUSINESS priority is to maximize return on investment. The investors take their money to the countries where the ease of doing business, availability of NO OR NOMINAL TAX REGIMES cheap labor, no or minimum regulatory CAPITAL FLIGHT AVAILABILITY OF CHEAP LABOR interventions, no or the lowest tax regimes are NO OR MINIMUM REGULATORY INTERVENTION guaranteed to them. Consequently, we find more than $30 trillion parked in offshore banks! These non-state entrepreneurs have created an economic havoc in developed economies of the world by exporting jobs, creating unemployment back home and reducing GDP growth rates in their own countries turning the task of running a developed country’s economy into a nightmare. The economic mess Europe and USA find themselves in is self-explanatory evidence of what is happening on global economic front. They are struggling to escape from the Domino Effect… Fortunately, Pakistan is one of the top listed emerging market’s economies with higher Regional GDP than the most preferred emerging economies in different continents of the world (http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/potential-of-investment-in-pakistan-12752206). Why Pakistan has failed to take any small or significant advantage of its globally acknowledged pro-investment inflow position on Global Investment Flows Map of the World? The answer is carefully engineered disconfiguration of Pakistan’s elements of national power with the connivance of the pawns of enemies of Pakistan placed at different management levels in almost every pillar of the state as well as corporate sector. These allegedly known and unknown pawns in every pillar of the state and corporate sector have perpetuated a state of permanent uncertainty in such a way that nothing in any area of economy can be planned and Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 15
  16. 16. implemented with foreseeable, dependable or predictable timeline. On the policy making front the government has become stooge of a number of criminal business cartels that are evidently inflicting loses of billions of dollars in different sectors of economy bringing Pakistan to the edge of bankruptcy. DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY: In today’s globally and economically interconnected world, diplomacy is an art that keeps a country on the safe side economically and militarily in a highly unpredictable world. Diplomatic activity, therefore, is the most sensitive of all other activities on the National Activity Map. If we look at what is happening on the economic and military fronts in Pakistan, we clearly see a glimpse of the professional capability of the people who are managing the foreign affairs of the country. The situation in and around Pakistan was never unpredictable even decades ago for an average student of international relations in early 1970s! That was almost four decades ago (http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/hang-together-or-you-will-be-hanged-individually and end-of-the-independent-muslim-world. http://www.slideshare.net/ 19540201/the- Diplomacy is not a day-to-day affair. It is considered as the backbone of a country’s National Strategic Vision and Goals. Governments come and go but the National Strategic Vision and Goals do not change with the changes in and around a country. A country’s vigilant leaders always remain fully cognizant of developments in and around borders of their countries. The only but controversial visionary statesman par excellence and expert in diplomacy was Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto who knew what was happening, what was expected and how to prepare for any eventuality. The irony of international relations is that he failed to envision his own unfortunate abrupt political and physical end. After him Pakistan has become a “Diplomatic Orphan” taking summersaults with developments in and around its borders. Zia-ul-Haq played his diplomatic cards fairly well AFGHANISTAN to take full advantage of political, economic and CHINA AND SOUTH ASIA PAKISTAN MIDDLE EAST military developments in and around Pakistan. Internally, he had succeeded in partially damaging the vote bank of Pakistan Peoples’ IRAN Party in Sind, Punjab, Baluchistan and NWFP and creating his own political squad. Externally, he did not compromise on economic cost of his country’s military involvement in Afghanistan. His diplomatic and strategic military skills were negatively overshadowed by his political Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 16
  17. 17. blunders and known and unknown reasons behind mysterious Ojhri blasts. After the removal of Junejo as Prime Minister he was told by those for whom he was working that his days were over! The political regimes prior to Musharraf’s take MUJAHEDEEN IN KABUL AND ANP IN PESHAWAR over, were internally struggling to keep their feet on ground politically. They had little to do on the external front except for a brief NAWAZ SHARIF IN PUNJAB ZIA-UL-HAQUE MACHIAVELLI'S MQM IN SIND "PRINCE" interaction of Nawaz Sharif with British Prime Minister and American President who wanted him to review his declared intention to make FIRST PHASE OF MILITARY MULLAH ALLIANCE Pakistan a confirmed nuclear state. Pakistan did not comply and this was the point from where Pakistan’s days of skillfully engineered political and economic doom started. With the nuclear explosion Pakistan had become allegedly, but NOT in reality “The Only Nuclear Fort of Islam.” Even that was NUCLEAR EXPLOSION not to be tolerated at any cost in any capital of the non-Muslim world for obviously known KARGIL MISHAP NAWAZ SHARIF'S DILLEMAS ECONOMIC STRANGULATION reasons. This is when Pakistan’s economic strangulation was seriously planned and put into operation not covertly but overtly. Another IRRESPONSIBLE GOVERNANCE controversial diplomatic as well as military event was Nawaz Sharif’s visit to United States of America for seeking support to put an end to India-Pakistan Kargil clash. That is the history of Pakistan’s “political and economic diplomacy.” The dismissal of Nawaz Sharif’s government by Pervez Musharraf had diplomatically isolated Pakistan until the attack on Twin Towers in September 2001 opening a new chapter in the history of diplomacy in Pakistan and rest of the world. After 9/11 Pakistan’s armed forces played a decisive role in both diplomatic as well as military affairs of Pakistan. Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 17
  18. 18. MILITARY ACTIVITY: 9/11 is a turning point in the history of diplomacy and military affairs. The unilateral and multilateral application of the theory of preemptive strikes and the concept of military operation other than war in war theaters in almost all continents of the world have exposed the political and military leaders to extremely serious new challenges. THEORY OF PREEMPTION NEED FOR LEGISLATIVE COVER PSY-OPS AND MILITARY WEB CONFUSING MILITARY AND POLITICAL TACTICS MILITARY OPERATION OTHER THAN WAR The political leaders have to justify the social, economic and diplomatic consequences of involvement in externally ill-advised or flawed internally planned military actions within and outside a country. Similarly, military leaders have to seek parliamentary cover prior to involvement in war against terror in and around a country. Consequently, the political leaders and military commanders are under tremendous pressures to justify their actions and the impact of those actions on five territories of National Activity Map. This is not Pakistan specific, political, diplomatic and military deve- lopment. “You are either with us or against us” and the “League of Democracy” are two other areas of global concern that have disturbed the political, diplomatic and military balance to an extent that their adverse social and economic fallout is witnessed in every corner of the world. These are indeed difficult times. Exceptionally extraordinary situations underline the need for innovative re-invention of state management systems based on scientific analysis of ground realities. The question is how to either renegotiate or get out of bilateral and multilateral obligations and alliances that are evidently destabilizing Pakistan and disconfiguring and damaging its system of governance to an irreparable extent. NATIONAL ACTION PLAN FROM CIVIL SOCIETY’S PERSPECTIVE: SOCIAL ACTIVITY: ACTION Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 18
  19. 19. In order to make its voice heard, the civil society needs to create public pressure groups and personal security platforms. EXAMPLES: An irresponsible and irresponsive ministry of water and power has made the life of people miserable in every walk of life by launching a country-wide unscheduled and unannounced loadshedding plan instead of controlling politically motivated leakage and attempting other available management options strictly and honestly. The people came out in the streets to protest against this brutal practical demonstration of ministerial and bureaucratic incompetence. What was witnessed? An angry mob was seen and reported attacking everything that came in its way turning a genuine expression of displeasure and the right to protest into a violent criminal act and an activity without an outcome. What did this activity without an outcome convey? The conversion of civil society into an unruly mob without a well defined goal and invisibility of a civil society leader to guide them for agitating for a purpose in a way to get the problem solved. So, in a situation like this people need to first nominate someone from among themselves to lead them when their elected representatives go into hiding and then agree on a plan of action to make sure that their problem is not temporarily but permanently solved. Media on its part failed to honestly investigate the genuine reasons for shortfall in electricity generation and exposing the real culprits behind the crime with facts, figures and evidence. How civil society can point out media’s failure or to come up with its own investigative research by young college and university students declaring media as a “silent partner in crime” and demanding action against the ministry officials, the power generation and distribution companies and their corrupt staff, the politicians with evidence of supporting criminals involved in “power theft” and the media staff’s failure in doing justice to the assigned beat. The people need to get organized, create social response platforms and pick up their politically uninfluenced and unbiased civil society leaders. Pakistan’s only hope is the country’s youth. Ironically, youth is allowed to work and vote for political parties but they are not allowed to form student societies and unions in colleges and universities. The college and university students exit the educational institutions and enter into a bigger university of practical life. Whatever they learn helps them in laying the foundation of their personal career and family life around that. Politics is very much a part of their lives too. In the past, when student unions were not banned in colleges and universities, the students played an important role in country’s politics too. How they do that in advanced countries is a very important subject for research. Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 19
  20. 20. POLITICAL ACTIVITY: ACTION Civil society has to discard any individual who seeks public office for personal benefit and pick the public office holders themselves brushing aside all those internal and external intelligence agencies sponsored politicians who appear in two to three television programs in a single day and are introduced by print and electronic media as genuine political leaders particularly sons of army generals, daughters of politicians and technocrats of dubious political and personal character and retired bureaucrats, judges and army generals. They were repeatedly voted into power by people and they did nothing except betraying trust of the voters. What they are good in is nothing but talking and talking a lot without making any sense. This is what they and their party leaders are doing for the last so many decades. All of them must be permanently discarded and thrown out of country’s politics for good. Civil society needs to come up with its own selection process and create platforms for the nomination of candidates for national and provincial assemblies and the senate. The right of selecting a candidate must be taken back from the political party leaders who have developed an army of visionless incompetent and corrupt political idiots promoted by equally unprofessional and now publically condemned criminally obliged print and electronic media journalists, anchors and analysts. All those politicians who have criminal charges against them or are being tried in the courts of law ought to be disqualified from contesting election for any public office until they are proven not guilty. Civil Society has to develop a mechanism for the investigation of public complaints against the office holders of the four pillars of the state and take the culprits to courts and judicial council no matter how highly placed and important they are and see that the justice is done. Presently ongoing superior court proceedings in NRO and other cases have established beyond any doubt that the constitution of Pakistan is seriously flawed and evidently provides shameful cover to criminals once they are elected. These flaws need to be pointed out by the civil society for immediate review and appropriate correction. Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 20
  21. 21. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: ACTION The government of Pakistan does not have a National Economic Vision, Natural and Human Resource Potential and Performance Map and rationalized Public Administration Expenditure Manuel. The bureaucracy does not have a “Public Service Code of Conduct” that binds it to remain open and available to ideas and projects of national importance. Presidential immunity is used by section officers and federal secretaries for hiding incompetence, negligence, indifference and corruption at every level of state management operation. Civil society has to create platforms for addressing the highlighted state management loopholes. The civil society, first of all, needs to make the government accountable for the direct and indirect taxes that are paid by people but are not accounted for in FBR’s records through unlawful connivance of FBR’s staff with corporate criminals. Annual increase in the salaries of government employees has to be linked with their transparent public dealing and professional performance. None of the government ministries as well as staff of the Prime Minister and President secretariats have done anything for the country and the people to be proud of. Therefore, there is no justification for across the board increase in their salaries. Their failure to perform their duties has been shamefully rewarded. Nothing can be more insulting and obnoxious than this act of ignorance on record by the finance ministers and Prime Ministers’ entire cabinets that goes un-noticed and un-condemned to the level it deserves. All the facilities regarding accommodation, payment of utility bills, personal security and domestic staff have to be withdrawn with immediate effect irrespective of the official positions of the beneficiaries in three pillars of the state. When tax payers are not receiving any service against the taxes they are paying, the government officials must be ashamed of using those services being Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 21
  22. 22. servants of the people. These unlawful perks and privileges have made them criminally negligent of their duties and irresponsive to the genuine problems of the people. DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY: ACTION Pakistan’s ideal geographical location makes it one of the most fortunate countries in the world but the situation in and around Pakistan has made it the most unfortunate and rightly or wrongly the most ridiculed piece of land on the map of the world. Who is responsible for turning Pakistan’s good diplomatic fortune into shameful ridicule? GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION DEFENCE CAPABILITY POLITICAL & CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERSHIP? NATURAL & HUMAN RESOURCES ECONOMIC & INVESTMENT POTENTIAL Without an attempt to give a controversial answer to this question it will be hopefully more appropriate to look into the possibility of reversing the situation to Pakistan’s advantage. The key for that is the proper evaluation of Pakistan’s tangible and intangible elements of national power and their reconfiguration for proper positioning and utilization of country’s ideal geographical location, its rich natural and human resources, and its incomparably unique economic and overseas investment potential. MILITARY ACTIVITY: ACTION It will not be inappropriate and out of place to blame Pakistan’s military commanders for the overall mess Pakistan is in. So far Pakistan’s military commanders have repeatedly jumped in to put the country’s democracy back on track but always gifted Pakistanis a much bigger mess before they left. They made failed attempt after attempts to covertly and overtly reform Pakistan’s overall system of governance making it far more ungovernable through their hand-picked politicians and “Kalam Kabila” (The media owners and their artificially over-pampered writers and anchors who are now getting Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 22
  23. 23. exposed and appearing in their true colors). Now instead of trying another way out in an old manner it will be advisable to use the civil society giving them military cover in getting their right to self-govern back to them in its true sense. How that can be done? That can be done only by mobilizing “Influence Groups” in every walk of life through “Specific Self-Governance Tasks” within a given timeline. The commanders need to command and see what the followers do when they are on their way to become masters of their own destiny instead of getting enslaved by political demagogues with dual and multiple nationalities and loyalty to none. Why is it necessary? It is necessary because Pakistan’s security is NOT threatened by external conspiracies or possible aggression. Pakistan’s very survival is threatened by internal lawlessness, incompetence of political leaders with criminal background and evidently vulnerable to external anti-state pressures and complete irreparable collapse of the system of governance if the affairs of the state are continued to be managed in the way they are managed now. Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 23
  24. 24. CONCLUSION: When those who are given the mandate to govern make the country ungovernable then the only way out for the civil society is to lead the way to show the leaders that those who are mislead can lead too when the time comes. It is far more important to self-govern than handing over the right to govern to those who cannot see beyond their nose. Pakistan’s only hope is the country’s youth. Ironically, youth is allowed to work and vote for political parties but they are not allowed to form student societies and unions in colleges and universities. The college and university students exit the educational institutions and enter into a bigger university of practical life. Whatever they learn helps them in laying the foundation of their personal career and family life around that. Politics is very much a part of their lives too. In the past, when student unions were not banned in colleges and universities, the students played an important role in country’s politics too. How they do that in advanced countries is a very important subject for research. Zahid Hussain Khalid has worked for national and international media groups not as a journalist but a marketing practitioner, researcher and analyst. He successfully initiated and completed the assigned managerial and country tasks for such publications as Arab News, Financial Times, Jang Group, Euromoney magazine, Petroleum Economist, South China Morning Post, Asiamoney magazine, Innovation Management and Hong Kong Standard except Forbes Inc, Forbes Global, Forbes Europe, Forbes Asia. He will always remain thankful to Mr. William Adamapolous and Mr. Steve Forbes of Forbes Inc and Mr. Tony Shale CEO, Euromoney Institutional Investor Group (Jersey) Limited for their personal encouragement and support in initiating and marketing Pakistan-specific innovative integrated media packages for investment promotion. He also worked as Associate Producer, Current Affairs, Pakistan Television Corp. His articles have appeared in the Daily Jang, Daily Mashriq, the Nawa-e-Waqt and daily The Muslim on social, economic, political, diplomatic and military subjects which are available here http://zahidhkhalid.wordpress.com/ and here http://www.slideshare.net/19540201 He had co-produced more than hundred episodes of the most popular weekly program “Hafta-e-Rafta” and was nominated for Best Producer’s award for documentaries on Afghan Refugees and Year of the Aged. His work reflects a visible difference because he strongly believes in innovative approach in everything that he does. He was co-owner of International Media Sales from 1991 to 2012 and is owner of SUN&FZ Associates since 1994. Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 24
  25. 25. READING LIST: 1. Growing Beyond: Rapid growth market, Winter Edition - January 2013,” Earnst & Young 2. “Growth Journeys: Helping Asian companies realize the value of their international expansion strategies,” Accenture 2013 3. Earnst & Young Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast – October 2013 4. CFO innovation Asia, Business Outlook Survey, First Quarter 2013 5. “Brand New Order – “Profit or lose Balancing the growth-profit paradox for global consumer products companies and retailers in Asia’s emerging markets,” Earnst & Young, June 2013 6. Future Work Skills 2020, Institute for the Future for the University of Phoenix Research Institute 2011 7. Education at a Glance (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2006), 155. 8. “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013 9. Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Demand, Q1 2013 10. Universalia 1985; IDRC 1991; Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance, The World Bank 2011 11. Mohammad A. Jaljouli, “Evaluation Systems as Strategy Management Tools: Building Dubai’s Institutional Learning Capacity,” / “Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance,” The World Bank 2011 12. Caroline Heider, A Conceptual Framework for Developing Evaluation Capacities: Building on Good Practice, “Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance,” The World Bank 2011. 13. Zahid Hussain Khalid, Potential of Investment in Pakistan: http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/potential-of-investment-in-pakistan12752206 14. Zahid Hussain Khalid, Pakistan’s Independence Day Message to Government and the people of Pakistan: 15. http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/pakistans-independence-day-message-to-government-and-people-of-pakistan 16. Zahid Hussain Khalid, America, the Great Game and the Greater Middle East – an un-discussed perspective unveiling the birth of conspiracies, http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/america-the-great-game-and-the-greater-middle-east-an-undiscussed-perspective- unveiling-the-birth-of-conspiracy-theories 17. Zahid Hussain Khalid, Malala Mishap and Global Media Scenario in Retrospect, http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/malala-mishap-andglobal-media-scenario-in-retrospect-taliban-and-pakistan 18. Zahid Hussain Khalid, The Weaknesses and the only Strength of the Muslims, http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/the-weaknesses-ofthe-muslims Pakistan Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential Among Emerging Markets Page 25

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