A summary of our report into the convergence of China's silk belt and Road expansion and ISIS's caliphate aspirations.

1. November 2015
[Report Brief] Threat Assessment:
Convergence of China’s Economic
Globalisation Strategy and Encroaching
ISIS Aspirations for the Asian Caliphate
Intelligent Security Solutions Limited
www.issrisk.com

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Report Brief
Overview
Fifteen months ago ISS Risk’s belief was that the eventual military campaign by the Western
powers (albeit now by Russia) and Arab nations to degrade the existing Islamic State Caliphate
would simply accelerate the globalisation of ISIS ideology. The globalisation of their ideology
would then expand the transnational nature of the group, therein exacerbating the threat they
present. That hypothesis still stands.
This Report examines the prospects of a looming and significant convergence of the aspirations
of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and its affiliates, namely a ‘Global Caliphate’, with
China’s ‘Go Global’ economic model and strategy for the Eurasia land mass. Both have
declared complete commitment to their own strategic ambitions, be they ideological /
theological, economic or energy security in focus, and these ambitions will geographically (and
physically) converge across this land mass.
China’s commitment both in terms of its global economic strategy and finances to the Eurasian
land mass is colossal. The main nodes to this investment form the core of its Eurasian
engagement model, and as such face the greatest threats from actual and potential Islamic
extremism including that instigated or made directly by ISIS. These four principal nodes are the,
Silk Road Economic Belt Road (SREB), China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Singapore-
Nanning Economic Corridor (SNEC) and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor
(BCIM-EC).
This Report examines the threats faced by each of these corridors from ISIS, its affiliates and
from non-affiliated localised extremist Islamic groups, in relation to both planned and announced
megaprojects. As can be seen in the image below the threat of conflict from convergence is
clear and as such direct or emergent threats exist for current and future investments in these
countries. Both a full understanding and an efficient monitoring of these threats is paramount for
any investor or adviser.
What this Report provides is the most current answers to frequently breaking-ground questions
such as how will ISIS grow in Asia? Who are they targeting and why? Will ISIS affect a serious
regionalisation of Islamic extremism across Asia? How potent are their co-opting or affiliation
building with groups from Central, South or Southeast Asia? What is behind the increasing

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threat trajectory in radical Islamism in Asia - and where may it go? How will these risks manifest
themselves? What pre-emptive or denial strategies exist?
Report Fundamentals
Following fifteen months of research it is our firm belief that ISIS in the Middle East is the
prequel to ISIS in Asia, as it was to ISIS’ growth in North Africa. Consequently for each of the
four corridors SREB, CPEC, SNEC and BCIM-EC we have identified where terrorist attacks
have occurred over the last five to ten years, and have worked to understand the dynamics of
the Islamic jihadism within these areas. Furthermore we have assessed both the future growth
of ISIS and other relevant Islamic militant groups within these areas over the coming 12-24
months and the risk they pose to foreign investors.
For each of the four nodes, a common lens to our assessments has been whether localisation
or regionalisation of the Islamic threat is the more potent issue of the future. In Baluchistan for
example in south-western Pakistan, ISIS is now in full dialogue or conflict with regional Islamic
extremist groups, having chosen the province to be its base of operations. The CPEC corridor
terminal of Gwadar port is being constructed in this province, along with several billion US
dollars of existing Chinese infrastructure megaprojects due for 2017 completion. To put the size
of the threat in perspective from another angle, the Pakistan government have raised a 12,000
strong special security unit to safeguard the CPEC’s construction.
Convergence of ISIS and Chinese Aspirations, November 2015

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Here is an examples of a heatmap ISS Risk constructed to demonstrate the spatial correlations
between signed / announced Chinese investor led megaprojects and terrorist attacks over the
last five years in Pakistan.
Financial Risk
The Report also discusses the impact of terrorism risk in relation to Financial Risk, and the
principal challenges to be faced in retaining financing when security risk is high. Megaproject
failures and their ramifications, as well as how to manage your financier or banker’s risk appetite
at points of crisis are also discussed.
Core thoughts to this Brief
How real is the threat from ISIS and Islamic extremism in general across Asia? Regionalisation
of this threat is a concept or is it turning into a reality? ISIS is essentially picking up where al-
Qaeda left off? Simply put, there are a plethora of questions that need to be addressed in
respect to the depth and rate of penetration of ISIS in Asia. As such our firm’s stance in short is
"what is happening in the Middle East and North Africa is coming to Asia, and so getting ahead
of this complex threat scenario and getting prepared is paramount to the success of any existing
or future investment".

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There should be really little doubt that this ISIS risk is genuine. Evidence strongly suggests that
ISIS are developing a strategy that will affect a classic pincer manoeuvre from Afghanistan-
Pakistan downwards and upwards from Southeast Asia to affect their Asia strategy - yet is this a
threat or a concept? These questions and the broader implications they pose regarding
regionalisation of the threat of extremism under ISIS and associated regional players are points
the Report considers.
Are you Malaysia or Indonesia focused for example? Over 100 persons associated with ISIS are
interned in Malaysia at present, with new and potent counter-terrorism laws being passed in
mid-2015 reflecting the government official’s clear statements that they are expecting terrorist
strikes from Islamic extremists in their country. Is only Malaysia concerned by the existence of a
veteran combat battalion sized (300-500) Bahasa speaking unit in Syria? Should only 10% of
this figure return to the Bahasa speaking countries of Malaysia and Indonesia that’s 30-50
combat tested and highly trained extremists ready to teach recruits and perform terrorist
operations across SE Asia. Does the concept of a regionalisation of an Islamic extremist threat
then become a reality or remain in the realms of fiction?
Are you Thailand focused? What really happened in Thailand when Bangkok suffered its worst
terrorist attack in history? What is really happening in Southern Thailand? What is the trajectory
of that conflict? Were the 20 people recently killed in Bangkok, killed by people smugglers or as
a result of the regionalisation of a local terrorism issue, namely Turkic-Uyghur Islamic
separatism? What caused such resentment from Uyghurs?
Are you Philippines focused? What is happening in Mindanao? Will an autonomous Islamic
region resolve or exacerbate matters in the Southern Philippines?
Are you China centric? What is the ethnic Turkic connection to Islamic extremist groups in
Central Asia? How does the Turkic connection affect China? Who are the Uyghurs? What is
changing there? Why are terrorist attacks increasing in China? Is this Turkic-Uyghur connection
a figment of China’s imagination to cloak their repressive policies in Xinjiang? Is it a conceptual
threat to allow China to ramp up repression in Xinjiang?
The trend of terrorism in Asia generally suggests that where al-Qaeda left off, ISIS is about to
and is for that matter picking up. How and where will China or other nations be confronted by
ISIS or their affiliates? Where will the pincers start or connect in Asia? Indonesia or Southern
Philippines? Or will it be both? Or perhaps the 'Turkic brethren' coming together across the

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'Stans of Central Asia and Western China, or the 'Bahasa' (IndoMalay – Myanmar Rohingya -
Southern Thailand across to Mindanao) coming up from the South East? That's a classic pincer
manoeuvre.