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Analysis:
Growth of militancy and ISIS in
Bangladesh
Intelligent Security Solutions Limited
www.issrisk.com
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Executive Summary
As ISIS continues to make violent forays into countries across Europe, North Africa, Central
Asia and Southeast Asia, the pertinent question becomes what is their strategy for South
Asia? Afghanistan and Pakistan, which have for long been recognised as the epicentres of
global terrorism and conflict, clearly feature in this ISIS plan. Bangladesh, on the other hand,
has had little to no real attention given to it regarding its now potentially pivotal importance
as a bridge between ISIS‟ South and Southeast Asian aspirations. Whether these ambitions
are realised though a truly regional sized Caliphate, „a Khurasan State‟ or through the
construction of an „archipelago of mini Caliphates‟ across the region; Bangladesh‟s
geographical location and the religious demographics of its population by definition merit its
close examination.
What role will the militants in Bangladesh potentially play in ISIS plans? What is the situation
regarding domestic militancy now? Who are indeed the main players in this largely traditional
society, one which has repeatedly struggled and at times failed to retain its founding
ideology of constitutional secularism? What are the dynamics of the intra-religious tensions
in its 86% Muslim population? This report will examine the broader jihadist and militant
landscape in the country and then move into an analysis of how ISIS is capitalising on the
lack of recognition being awarded to the existence of a growing local problem – one that is
transitioning into a regional problem.
Introduction
Islamic fundamentalism in Bangladesh is growing. Despite the steady increase in evidence
as to the growing presence of ISIS, the Bangladeshi government moved to wilfully ignore,
deny and then suppress at times alarming evidence throughout 2015. These actions are
continuing in 2016. Regardless of this political decision, multiple incidents not only point to
an irrefutable growth in support for ISIS within Bangladesh but also to worrisome trends of
an organic Islamic fundamentalism coupled with a seemingly general rise in radicalisation.
ISIS are both capitalising and promoting these trends for their own ends.
The government‟s position and stance, one of denial, is counterproductive, particularly at a
time when localised groups are making significant overtures to the broader Islamic or jihadist
campaign that is evolving regionally and globally. This jump from localised to regionalised
agendas is the greatest risk if individual countries choose to ignore what is happening in
their own back yards for expediency or political reasons. By the time the problem has
morphed into a regional one, it is too late to start addressing it, the strategy then becomes
one of engagement and containment.
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This report outlines the evidence and provides analysis that the localised groups pursing that
radical agenda are communicating more, sharing intelligence, training and pooling resources
and potentially working towards a commonality of purpose, much more so than ever before,
more importantly, that commonality is currently centring around ISIS. However, it would be
easy to bang the ISIS drum and lay all the ills on their door. It is, however, not that simple.
The jihadist landscape in Bangladesh is changing, but it has been a slow and quiet and
largely unnoticed transition over the past 10 – 15 years and appears to be gaining some
tempo now. The cross fertilisation of know-how, experience and common ideologically
objectives that are merging into a homogenous agenda is becoming very pronounced.
Presence of Other Islamist Militant Groups in Bangladesh
According to a report published by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies,
Bangladesh has witnessed two waves of religious radicalism in recent decades. The first
(1999-2005) was led by Bangladeshis who fought alongside the Afghan mujahideen in the
1980s and was dominated by groups like Harakat ul-Jihad al-Islami-Bangladesh (HUJI-B)
and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB); this wave included hundreds of Bangladeshi
youth waging jihad in countries like Afghanistan and Iraq. Upon returning home, they
radicalised others and joined local extremist organisations. At the national level, a
fundamentalist-friendly coalition led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which
included the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and the Islamic Oikya Jote came to power in 2001. It was
only in 2005 that the Bangladesh government, acting under international pressure, began
banning various extremist and jihadist groups within its borders. The crackdown caused a lull
in extremist activity, although various banned outfits continued to function quietly under new
names or front organisations.
A second wave in religious radicalism was sparked by the secular Awami League-led
government‟s setting up of a domestic tribunal in 2010 to try JeI leaders and other Islamists
accused of war crimes during the 1971 liberation war. Islamist mobilisation gathered further
momentum in early 2013 in response to the Shahbag protests when secular liberals took to
the streets and cyberspace to demand the death penalty for those guilty of war crimes. In
their blogs, these individuals were extremely critical of Islam and the intolerance of Islamists.
Islamists in return denounced secular liberals as “apostates” and openly called for their
elimination. For instance, the Chittagong-based Hefajat-e-Islam issued a 13-point demand
for Shahbag protestors and “atheist[s]... bloggers and anti-Islamists” to be hanged to death.
Of the 84 “enemies of Islam‟” on its “hit list,” nine people have been killed so far and several
others have been attacked.
“The mujahidin of Bengal (Bangladesh) realised that there was no room for blind partisanship towards
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any organisation once the Khilafah (Caliphate) had been declared and that there was no longer
legitimacy for any independent jihad organisation … Thus, the sincere men from the various jihad
groups rushed to support the Khilafah and join the ranks of its soldiers in Bengal. They united their
ranks behind a single Qurashi imam (Abu Bakr al Baghdadi)… Thus, Allah united the ranks of
mujahidin in Bengal once again after they were fragmented. He gave them the honour of becoming
soldiers of the Khilafah upon the prophetic methodology, inshallah.” − Dabiq - Issue 12
1
In September 2015, United States officials informed Bangladeshi authorities that terrorists
linked to Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group were planning to ramp up activities
inside Bangladesh. In the months that followed a series of unusual terrorist attacks were
witnessed in different parts of the nation and after each incident, ISIS claimed responsibility
for carrying out those attacks through social media accounts known to be used by the group.
Despite this, Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, and her government rejected
those claims outright, denied the existence of ISIS within Bangladesh, and even went ahead
to describe the terrorist attacks as part of a conspiracy by the opposition parties to tarnish
the government‟s image and the nation‟s progress.
Such diametrically opposed views between the Bangladeshi government (and intelligence
apparatus) and foreign intelligence services as to the presence of ISIS in Bangladesh have,
to say the least, created high levels of confusion on the matter. In real terms this lack of
formal acceptance by the Bangladesh authorities notably impedes the understanding of the
risks from ISIS in the nation, and as such adds real difficulties in constructing a clear
intelligence picture of this critical new threat to their domestic security landscape.
In this report, ISS Risk will undertake an objective assessment of the various developments
in Bangladesh during the last 18 months, based on open source media reports as well as
comments from our own in-country sources, so as to identify the existence of any trends and
in turn address the following key questions:
 Whether ISIS has any operational presence in Bangladesh?
 What is the potential for organic growth of ISIS in Bangladesh in the near term?
 What risks are posed to foreign nationals and corporations operating in
Bangladesh?
Combat Indicators
Despite denials by the Bangladeshi ruling political party and authorities several significant
events have taken place in the nation during the last 18 months, highlighting, at the very
least, the significant ideological and theological influence of ISIS and its leader Abu Bakr al-
1
Dabiq is an official monthly online magazine published by ISIS.
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Baghdadi over some Bangladeshi nationals.
Chronology of events
August 2014
 A group of five Bangladeshi nationals declared their oath of allegiance to al-Baghdadi
through a video posted in Youtube entitled „Muslims in Bangladesh give Bayah to the
Caliphah Ibrahim (Hafiahulla)‟. The five masked men took the oath in Bengali, whilst
holding copies of the Quran in their hands and were waving a black and white ISIS style
banner written in Arabic.
September 2014
 Indian security forces arrested four Indian youths in Kolkata who were planning to enter
Bangladesh to meet an ISIS recruiter in Dhaka. Their interrogation revealed that another
11 Indian youths were in touch with ISIS handlers in Bangladesh.
 Bangladeshi security forces arrested seven members of the banned Bangladeshi
Islamist militant group Jamaa‟tul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), including Abdullah al-
Tasnim, the acting chief of JMB. As per Bangladeshi police reports, the militants were
arrested for establishing contact with ISIS in Syria. Further investigations revealed that
JMB was trying to recruit Bangladeshis to fight along ISIS in Syria and Iraq. At the same
time, they were also planning to carry out attacks against senior government figures to
gain international attention.
 A British national of Bangladeshi origin named Samiun Rahman aka Ibn Hamdan Mian
was arrested in Dhaka for recruiting Bangladeshi nationals on behalf of ISIS. Police also
arrested two local youths for volunteering to travel to Syria with the help of Samiun
Rahman.
October 2014
 Investigations by Indian intelligence agencies revealed that JMB was trying to recruit
Muslim youths from West Bengal state in India for fighting along ISIS in Syria.
Additionally, JMB was also using West Bengal as a safe haven to export explosives to
Bangladesh.
January 2015
 Police arrested four suspected member of ISIS, including a local coordinator, who was
planning the organisation of a series of attacks on important government offices as part
of a strategy to establish a Caliphate in Bangladesh.
May 2015
 Bangladeshi police forces arrested two ISIS recruiters from Dhaka. One of the arrested
suspects, Aminul Islam Baig, is reportedly a coordinator for ISIS and also a member of
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JMB. The second person arrested was confirmed as a member of JMB.
August 2015
 Two British nationals of Bangladeshi origin, Ruhul Amin and Reeyad Khan, who had
joined ISIS, were killed in British military drone strikes in Syria.
September 2015
 Bangladeshi PM Sheik Hasina informed British PM David Cameron that British
Bangladeshis are fanning extremism in Bangladesh and recruiting people from
Bangladesh for fighting in Syria. She requested Cameron step up efforts against the ISIS
recruiters coming from Bangladeshi communities in the UK.
 Three unidentified assailants shot and killed an Italian aid worker as he walked on the
street in the high-security diplomatic quarter of Dhaka. ISIS later claimed responsibility
for the attack through a verified social media account and warned that citizens of the
„crusader coalition‟ would not be safe in Muslim nations.
October 2015
 Five days after the murder of the Italian aid worker, another group of unidentified
gunmen killed a Japanese national in Rangpur, Northern Bangladesh. ISIS again
claimed responsibility for the attack. Two months later, following investigations,
Bangladeshi police claimed that JMB was involved behind the murder of this Japanese
national.
 One person was killed and more than 100 others were injured when three IEDs were
detonated amid thousands of Shia Muslims gathering for the Ashura procession in
Dhaka. ISIS later claimed responsibility for the attack.
 More than two dozen Christian priests, nuns and aid workers from different parts of the
nation received death threats. Those who sent the threats claimed they belonged to both
ISIS and JMB.
November 2015
 ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack on a police checkpoint outside Dhaka that left
one police officer killed and a second injured.
 ISIS claimed responsibility for a failed assassination attempt on a minority Bahai
community leader in Rangpur, northern Bangladesh.
 ISIS claimed responsibility for a failed assassination attempt on an Italian priest in
Dinajpur, northern Bangladesh.
 One person was killed and three others injured when attackers opened fire during
evening prayers at a Shia mosque in Shibganj, northern Bangladesh. ISIS claimed
responsibility for the attack.
 ISIS published an article titled „The revival of Jihad in Bengal with the spread of the light
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of the Khilafah‟ in its monthly online magazine, Dabiq. The article heaped praise upon
JMB for being „a true jihadi organisation‟, whilst labelling other political parties of the
nation as apostates and atheists. Inside the article ISIS claimed responsibility for several
different attacks that had been carried out in Bangladesh, whilst threatening to carry out
more attacks. The article also announced that a regional leader had been appointed for
Bangladesh – although the name of the individual was not given.
 Al Hayat, the media platform of ISIS, published an audio clip in Bengali urging Muslim
youths of „Bengal‟ (note: this could refer to both the West Bengal state in India and / or
simply to Bangladesh itself) to join the group. Indian intelligence officials were able to
trace the origin of the audio clip to within Bangladesh.
Image 1: ISIS claiming responsibility for the attack on Shia mosque in Bogra on 26 November,
2015
Image 2: ISIS publishing a timeline of its attacks from September – November, 2015
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December 2015
 ISIS claimed responsibility for a suicide attack targeting a minority Ahmedia mosque in
Rajshahi, northern Bangladesh, killing one person and injuring another ten people. The
police chief of Bangladesh described the incident as the first suicide attack of the nation
and blamed JMB for the incident.
 A British educated Bangladeshi national Siful Haque Sujan aka Abu Khalid al-Bengali
was killed by US drone strikes near Raqaa in Syria. He was considered a prominent
member of the ISIS external operations department, and was considered among the
group‟s top cyber experts, actively involved in hacking and counter-surveillance
activities.
Discernible patterns
ISIS has clearly devoted a significant amount of its media and propaganda resources
to Bangladesh.
 This has been aptly demonstrated through publications focused on Bangladesh via its
online Dabiq magazine or Al Hayat media front platforms, or through the claiming of
attacks through (verified) ISIS social media accounts.
 The allocation of such resources by ISIS unequivocally denotes the Group as having
genuine interest in Bangladesh, as part of their wider strategic objectives. Bangladesh,
as the third most populous Muslim nation in the world (with over 94% of these Muslims
following Sunni Islam), both logically and naturally holds great interest for ISIS.
ISIS recruiters have been identified as being both present and active in Bangladesh
since September 2014 … with intelligence garnered from arrests in India identifying an ISIS
recruiter operating in Dhaka at that time.
 This observation gains further credence from two further incidents later that same month.
Firstly, arrests by Bangladeshi police of JMB cadres for establishing contact with ISIS
and attempting to send recruits to Syria, and secondly the arrest of a British national
operating as an ISIS recruiter in Dhaka.
 For recruiters to have begun operating in Bangladesh from September 2014, it is our
conclusive assessment that actual contacts between ISIS and potential Bangladeshi
recruiters should have taken place months earlier, and that this was most likely facilitated
or done through (the unspecified number of) Bangladeshi jihadis who had already joined
ISIS in Syria.
 This September 2014 „tipping point‟ in Bangladesh makes even more sense when it is
put in a wider context of ISIS‟ global profile at the time. During the middle months of
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2014, ISIS was making global headlines from its operations in the Middle East and North
Africa – the military capture of Mosul in Iraq, the declaring of a Caliphate, a long series of
unprecedented brutalities and (strategic) violations of human rights against minorities.
Such achievements and headline grabbing actions made ISIS an undisputed leader of
the global jihad movement in the eyes of radicals from across the world - including those
in Bangladesh. Undoubtedly such a time was considered most suitable for ISIS to initiate
a serious recruitment drive into Bangladesh, as it did elsewhere.
 A definite and close connection exists between ISIS in Bangladesh and the JMB …
many incidents where JMB cadres have been found as having established contact with
ISIS, former JMB members identified as active recruiters for ISIS, attacks claimed by
ISIS identified as being carried out by former or current JMB members, threats to
minorities being issued in the name of both JMB and ISIS etc.
 These observations could be interpreted two ways – either JMB is using the ISIS brand
name to gain support and credibility, or JMB has made a strategic decision to ally with
ISIS and in turn, has been allowed to look after the Bangladeshi operations and grow the
organisational structure of ISIS in the country.
 To contextualise these interpretations further, a critical piece of contemporaneous data
should be highlighted. In the latest issue of Dabiq, a leading article on jihad in Bengal
saw much praise shown to both the JMB and its deceased spiritual leader Shaykh Abdur
Rahman for having founded a „proper jihad organisation in Bangladesh‟ based upon the
Salafi ideology.
 What needs to be recognised at this juncture is that ISIS is very sceptical and reticent in
acknowledging the activities of other jihadi organisations, or as accepting them as
pursuing a „proper jihad‟, as it wants to project itself as the only true follower of jihad and
Islam. On top of this, ISIS has rarely praised other jihadi organisations openly for
pursuing the jihad the „proper way‟. So this open endorsement of JMB by ISIS is most
likely the result of an understanding between the two groups.
 It is our assessment that JMB has either become an affiliate of ISIS or it is in the
advanced stage of becoming one. A formal and open declaration is, perhaps, not being
made for tactical reasons – to avoid increased domestic and international attention and
scrutiny.
When examining these events it has been noted that until the middle of 2015, the
Bangladeshi security forces were arresting ISIS recruiters and suspected ISIS
members as well as confiscating their weapons on a regular basis. Up until this point
Bangladeshi security forces were openly acknowledging ISIS‟ operational presence within
Bangladesh. However, this recognition of ISIS operating within its borders changed with the
murder of the Italian aid worker in Dhaka in September 2015. Overnight, all reference to ISIS
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was removed from any police/security forces press release.
 A source from within Bangladesh stated that ISIS related activities continued at an even
pace throughout 2015; the only difference being that following September the
government decided to replace any reference to ISIS with that of JMB. In short, attacks
by ISIS in Bangladesh are being purposefully attributed to JMB alone, by the
Bangladeshi government. In fact as discussed in the previous section, very little
difference exists between JMB and ISIS in the Bangladeshi context. Therein, attacks
claimed by ISIS in late 2015 but publically attributed to the JMB by the Bangladeshi
government, should in all likelihood be considered as a corroboration of ISIS‟ own claims
of direct involvement.
ISIS Operational Presence in Bangladesh
Based on our own research and source comments, we have sufficient reason to believe that
ISIS has a developed operational presence within Bangladesh. Specifically this means that
there are individuals inside Bangladesh who have direct contact with ISIS‟ Syria-based
leadership and that these individuals act upon instructions received directly from this high
command structure.
Leadership
The current operational head of ISIS in Bangladesh is a dual Canadian-Bangladeshi citizen
– let us call him Mr TAC for the purposes of this Report. As the operational chief, Mr TAC is
entrusted with the responsibility of developing an ISIS network within Bangladesh and also
to act as a conduit between pro-ISIS elements inside the nation and the ISIS leadership in
Syria.
Inside Syria, the Bangladesh operations of ISIS were historically handled by the now
deceased London based Bangladeshi national Siful Haque Sujan aka Abu Khalid al-Bengali
and his close associate, an Australian jihadi named Neil Prakash aka Abu Khalid al-
Cambodi2
.
It is worth mentioning at this point that al-Bengali was a member of the ISIS‟ external
operations departments – the wing responsible for ISIS‟s organisational growth outside Iraq
and Syria as well the execution of cell-based attacks abroad. The Paris attacks of November
2015 were sanctioned by this external operations department of ISIS and it is headed by
Abu Muhammed al-Adnani, who is also the spokesperson of ISIS. The department‟s central
importance to ISIS and its global caliphate ambitions speaks for itself.
2
Al-Cambodi is also known for his recruitment and radicalisation of the British teenager of
Bangladeshi origins who planned an attack during ANZAC Day in Melbourne in April 2015
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Mr TAC‟s primary directive is the facilitation of travel for jihadists from Bangladesh to Syria.
A mission he reportedly received guidance on from al-Bengali and al-Cambodi. Mr TAC‟s
close associate in this endeavour was a Muhammed Aminul Islam Baig, also a former
member of JMB, who was arrested by the Bangladeshi police in May 2015 on charges
related to him being an ISIS coordinator. During interrogation, Baig revealed that he had
recruited at least 25 students to join ISIS in Syria. Additionally, he also revealed that both
financing and logistical support were channelled through a Bangladeshi national based in an
East Asian country. Baig further revealed that Bangladeshi recruits were sent to Syria via
Turkey disguised as volunteers for Islamic NGOs such as Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT) and Ummah
Welfare Trust (UWT) – organisations which have deep penetration in Bangladeshi society3
.
It is our assessment that this particular East Asian nation was selected for an aggressive
recruiting drive by ISIS as part of its strategy in Asia, as travelling to the Middle East from
this country would not trigger red flags unlike for persons travelling to the same destination
from Southeast Asia.
Another known close contact of Mr TAC was former JMB Acting Chief Abdullah al-Tasnim,
who was arrested in September 2014. As mentioned earlier in the Report, al-Tasnim was
arrested for establishing contacts with ISIS and for recruiting Bangladeshi nationals to fight
with ISIS in Syria. In the Dabiq article on Bangladesh it was reported that a leader had been
appointed for Bangladesh, although the identity of this appointed person was kept hidden. It
is our assessment that Mr TAC was actually appointed as the leader of ISIS in Bangladesh,
most probably as such an appointment would had given him at once both sufficient authority
to deal with and the right to command the different jihadist factions in Bangladesh.
Recruitment and efforts to establish allegiances with indigenous groups
The Dabiq article on Bangladesh was very interesting in two separate senses in that it was
written by a Bangladeshi, who clearly held a deep understanding of the jihadi ideological and
theological discourse inside Bangladesh and that secondly, the article gave real insight into
ISIS‟ target audience within Bangladesh. Other key features to the article were it‟s ridiculing
of groups which follow al-Qaeda and it‟s blaming of al-Qaeda for the acceptance of Mullah
Omar as the leader of the global jihad movement. The article also mocked Ayman al-
Zawihiri, the current leader of al-Qaeda, as an unwise man, hiding in some unknown place,
releasing outdated video messages with pledges of allegiance to a dead man and scolding
others for not doing the same. In the Bangladeshi context, the true target of this extended
ridicule and anti al-Qaeda diatribe was the banned militant outfit Ansarullah Bangla Team
(ABT), the group responsible for the murder of several secular bloggers in Bangladesh in the
3
HuT in particular has an extended and significant presence across universities in Bangladesh.
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last few years.
ABT is known to subscribe to the al-Qaeda ideology and according to some sources, is a
part of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). Very interestingly however, and although
appearing to be deeply contradictory owing to ideological differences, there are reports that
ISIS coordinators and recruiters in Bangladesh have forged and maintained contact with
members of ABT. Among the suspected ISIS recruiters and members arrested by the
Bangladesh police in the last year or so, a small number were identified as former known
members of ABT. Consequently, it is our assessment that ISIS Bangladesh is in fact
favourably disposed towards ABT and would like to have ABT enter its fold. Through its
radicalised members and proven capacity for violent attacks, the ABT has shown itself to be
a worthy potential ally / affiliate of ISIS Bangladesh and that this outreaching by ISIS to ABT
members (and therein the group) is an appeal to ABT to ditch al-Qaeda and join ISIS.
ISIS operational claims in late 2015 – validity of these claims?
Regarding the different attacks claimed by ISIS in the last 3-4 months, it is our assessment
that they were indeed sanctioned by the Bangladesh chapter of ISIS and that these were
most likely executed by local members of JMB. The speed of ISIS‟ claiming of responsibility
after the vast majority of the attacks in this period would also indicate that someone with
prior operational knowledge to the attacks was also co-ordinating the “claiming of the attacks
on behalf of ISIS”. Yet controversy has surrounded these initial attack claims from ISIS (or its
conduit), with the Bangladesh government (and some sections of its media) defaming SITE
Intelligence Group4
, for spreading false rumours against Bangladesh.
Objectively speaking however, the attacks disputed as being ISIS driven or not, were in fact
subsequently claimed by ISIS in its official Dabiq magazine on its report on Bangladesh. This
arguably proves two things – first, that the claims by ISIS were genuine and that second,
ISIS high command in Syria had approved the carrying out of these attacks under their
banner. Both points, either singularly or together further prove that ISIS does have a
potentially significant operational presence inside Bangladesh.
Key points to ISIS’ organisational setup in Bangladesh
These points being:
 Presence of a local executive structure, with a locally appointed leader who discharges
his operational role with several close associates
 Local leadership and command structure receives instructions and advice from ISIS‟
4
A Maryland, USA based private organisation which had tracked each of these claims via the social
media sources
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external operations wing headquartered in Syria
 Local Leader holds the responsibility for facilitating the travel of recruits to Syria through
Bangladesh
 Clear evidence of both the establishment of local alliances, the takeover of local jihadist
groups and ongoing works to build further alliances with local jihadist groups – examples
being the potent strategic partnership achieved with the JMB, and the strongest
indications that efforts are ongoing to enter into the same with ABT
 ISIS Bangladesh‟s core members are mostly ex-JMB operatives, with a small but growing
number of ex-ABT operatives also likely to have joined
 Intelligence gathered showing that ISIS Bangladesh members have close personal
contacts with JMB and ABT through previous organisational connections / group
membership
 Documented evidence that attacks carried out in the name of ISIS are being mostly
carried out by local JMB cadres
Escalation in Modus Operandi
Operational capabilities - Explosives
Until September 2014, the terrorist attacks carried out by groups like JMB were very
rudimentary from an explosives technology perspective. Crude bombs were used, with
Molotov Cocktail style explosives being the most common. A prime example of the limits to
the JMB‟s explosives capabilities prior to 2014 comes from what was then perceived as one
of the most daring militant attacks in Bangladesh to that date. JMB operatives attacked a
prisoner transport van so as to set free three of their members. Media reports at the time
described how many crude bombs were exploded during the raid, but the only police fatality
came not from an explosion but from a gunshot. A further example of this leading local
terrorist group‟s clear limitations as to its explosives‟ potency owing to an absence of
technical know-how and sophistication comes from the country‟s biggest terrorist attack to
date. In August 2005 approximately 500 bombs exploded at 300 locations in 63 of the
nation‟s 64 districts, all within a 30 minute window – yet only two people were killed by the
explosions themselves. Reflective of the limited potency of the explosive devices used
despite their number and the locations used for their detonation.
The limitations to the JMB‟s bomb making capabilities and the explosive‟s potency
demonstrated a stark change following September 2014 - the so called „tipping point‟ date to
ISIS‟ establishment of its footprint in Bangladesh. First indications of this change were found
when JMB‟s then Acting Chief Abdullah al-Tasnim was arrested in Dhaka in September
2014 in possession of four IEDs, 75 electronic detonators, 10kg of Powergel and other bomb
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making equipment.
Image 3: Items recovered during the arrest of Abdullah al-Tasnim, September 2014
Only a few weeks later in October 2014, JMB operatives hiding in India accidentally
triggered an explosion while preparing IEDs in a safe house in the border state of West
Bengal. What was found by investigators revealed that the group‟s technical know-how
relating to explosives‟ was changing dramatically, and that equally worryingly that some of
the raw materials recovered could only have been procured from abroad. Forensic tests
revealed the presence of Class II type gel explosives, the remnants of electrical circuits as
well as dummy shells from rocket propelled grenades. Apart from traces of potassium and
nitrate ions, articles like soldering irons, small ball bearings, table clocks, metallic springs,
iron sockets, batteries, signal switch boards and fine wires were also found. Investigators
also found several pieces of „Powergel 90‟ explosives. Blueprints for making IEDs were also
recovered, as were documents that had detailed information on various chemical
compositions and the mechanical processes and electrical circuits used in conjunction with
home-based materials as well as explosives such as RDX and PETN. In short, the forensic
tests by the Indian authorities concluded that the explosives found were of very high quality.
Evidently, JMB‟s bomb making techniques were rapidly becoming increasingly sophisticated
within the shortest time subsequent to ISIS establishing itself in Bangladesh in September
2014. Given the close relations between the two organisations, the JMB‟s very rapid
improvement in its bomb making skills cannot be seen as a mere coincidence. It is our
assessment that this significant change in their operational capabilities in relation to
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explosives was made possible only through the knowledge transfer from veterans of the
Syria conflict who had fought with ISIS.
A year later, the potency of the JMB‟s explosives capabilities was demonstrated when an
explosives attack was made during the Ashura procession in Dhaka in October 2015. The
attack killed one and left over 100 persons injured.
Further changes brought to the jihadi landscape of Bangladesh by ISIS’ entry
As one can imagine the impact of ISIS establishing itself in Bangladesh is not limited to just
the introduction of a higher level of explosives expertise. The group has fundamentally
changed the jihadi discourse in Bangladesh through its targeting on non-Sunni Muslims,
thereby introducing a sectarian overtone to the jihadi landscape in the nation for the first
time. Another „first‟, was the suicide attack committed in December 2015 – something which
had not been witnessed in the jihadi movements in Bangladesh.
Within a year of its operations within Bangladesh ISIS have not only provided relatively
advanced IED capabilities to the jihadis in Bangladesh, it has also convinced its followers to
direct their hatred towards non-Sunnis, so-called rafidah (rejecters), so much so that Iraq-
style suicide vests were used to kill these „rejecters‟. This is a rather impressive performance
for a group which is still barely a year into its entry into the nation. A performance made
doubly impressive by the fact that according to the nation‟s government, ISIS does not even
have a presence in the nation.
The trends and evidence proffered above point unambiguously to the improving capabilities
of the indigenous groupings in Bangladesh. Under the stewardship and leadership of ISIS
these formally disparate groups pose a larger threat. Their inclusion into a regional network,
a network being developed to be not just to have a „regional presence‟, but will ultimately
feed into and become ingrained, in an ideological sense, into a much larger network.
The Other Militant Players and Historic Growth of Activity in
Bangladesh
Bangladesh has witnessed a steady growth in militant activity over the past 10-15 years, but
particularly in the past 5 years. However, one must clarify that a lot of this „militant activity‟
was not concentric around radical Islam. There were many „local issue militant groups‟ that
have emerged in this time frame pursuing limited and manageable agendas, some of which
may not even count as actual „militancy‟, it really depends on one‟s definition.
Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis
Page | 15
a) Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B)
The group was established in 1992, allegedly with the support of Osama Bin Laden‟s
International Islamic Front. Their overall goal is to establish Islamic rule in Bangladesh
through waging war and over the past have long seen to be heavily influenced by the
Taliban, demonstrated through their motto „Amra Sobai Hobo Taliban, Bangla Hobe
Afghanistan’ (We will all become Taliban and we will turn Bangladesh into Afghanistan).
Reports suggest that their area of operations and training are largely to the South-East of the
country, in both the coastal and mountainous areas around Chittagong. In addition the group
has been suspected of infiltrating the eastern corridors of India, maintaining contact with
Islamic extremist elements over the border and allegedly being responsible for attacks in
Indian urban areas over the years.
Reports also indicate a connection between the group and the Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI), Pakistan‟s external intelligence agency, during both training and operations in the area.
Although the last several years has not born witness to confirmed large scale attacks by this
group and instead seen continued arrests and detention of its members, raids are still
uncovering elements of the group with the equipment necessary for launching an attack.
This became apparent most recently in June 2015, when police conducting separate raids in
Dhaka arrested nine militants belonging to the group, along with five kilograms of explosives
and 14 different types of explosive devices.
b) Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB)
The Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB), was an Islamist vigilante outfit that
Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis
Page | 16
espouses the ideals of the Taliban, attempting to ensure that the north-western region of the
country is „swept clean‟ of the activities of left-wing extremist groups, primarily the Purba
Banglar Communist Party (PBCP). Although violent activity stemming from the group seems
to have stopped completely by mid-2005, the group is still listed as a banned organisation by
the government.
c) Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT)
It‟s believed that the group originated in 2007 known as Jama‟atul Muslemin with funding
from different NGOs. The group ceased operation when funding dried up and resurfaced
under the current name in 2013. At present the ABT is best known for claiming responsibility
for the killing of six secular bloggers including a U.S. citizen, Avijit Roy, since 2013. In
addition the ABT has officially become a banned organisation with an announcement by the
Interior Ministry in May of this year due to the group‟s involvement in a bank heist, allegedly
in order to assist their funding in further operations against the state. Considered to have
been inspired and possibly associated with Al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-Continent (AQIS),
the group according to police has links to another radical group Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS).
Interestingly, the official media outlet for ABT is a global Islamist propaganda organisation
named Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF), which is known to be associated with
transnational jihadist groups like al-Qaeda and the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) –
demonstrating the international connections of ABT.
d) Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS)
This group is the student wing of Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (JeI), a banned yet extremely
influential political party which came into existence in 1941. The JeI, despite its mantra of
“Allah‟s Law” may resemble rhetoric similar to that used by ISIS and JMB, however its main
focus is deemed to lie with gaining more influence politically. The ICS have been known to
conduct violent attacks mainly in the form of petrol bombings, setting vehicles and other
infrastructure alight. The alleged motive of such attacks are said to be aimed at protesting
decisions made by the ruling party as opposed to enforcing Sharia Law.
In addition, it has been suggested that the group maintains strong links with Pakistan‟s ISI.
With its assistance, it is reportedly working to support Islamist subversive agendas in many
regions in India, particularly in areas bordering Bangladesh. The ISI, as well as foreign
nations such as Saudi Arabia are also reportedly providing a substantial amount of funding
to the ICS.
Lastly the group, being one of the largest Islamist student organisations in South Asia is also
considered to be a feeder organisation to groups such as the Taliban, especially during
Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis
Page | 17
recent years in Afghanistan.
Conclusion
Against this backdrop of latently increasing radicalisation and the emerging ISIS presence,
coupled with the refusal by the government to acknowledge a growing ISIS presence, the
conditions are being nurtured to allow ISIS to explode onto the scene in Bangladesh in a
„seemingly unexpected way‟. That tends to be the impression if one has one‟s head in the
proverbial sand! In reality if the organisations being courted by or offering allegiance to ISIS
were to be infiltrated and curtailed at this early stage of growth then the prospects for an
„alleged surprise ISIS emergence‟ in the country could be mitigated. However, this is wishful
thinking and it is unlikely to play out like that.
ISIS will make their presence felt in due course, the government will continue to pursue their
„all is fine, there is no ISIS problem in Bangladesh‟ attitude, until ISIS makes it presence
undeniably felt. Then the scrabble for deflection of blame and shirking responsibility will start
in earnest. By then the tentacles of ISIS and more importantly, a broadening of the
aspirations of the Islamic Jihadists towards the globalisation of the greater Jihad, or a clash
of civilisations, exacerbating existing fault lines as such will be advanced. Fault lines within
the Bangladeshi society, and within Islam in Bangladesh are at this stage facing serious
stresses which can potentially threaten its political system, national economy, viability as a
destination for foreign investment, international / regional business and commerce, domestic
security and of course it‟s founding secular principles.

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Bangladesh - Rise of militancy and ISIS Feb 2016

  • 1. Analysis: Growth of militancy and ISIS in Bangladesh Intelligent Security Solutions Limited www.issrisk.com
  • 2. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 1 Executive Summary As ISIS continues to make violent forays into countries across Europe, North Africa, Central Asia and Southeast Asia, the pertinent question becomes what is their strategy for South Asia? Afghanistan and Pakistan, which have for long been recognised as the epicentres of global terrorism and conflict, clearly feature in this ISIS plan. Bangladesh, on the other hand, has had little to no real attention given to it regarding its now potentially pivotal importance as a bridge between ISIS‟ South and Southeast Asian aspirations. Whether these ambitions are realised though a truly regional sized Caliphate, „a Khurasan State‟ or through the construction of an „archipelago of mini Caliphates‟ across the region; Bangladesh‟s geographical location and the religious demographics of its population by definition merit its close examination. What role will the militants in Bangladesh potentially play in ISIS plans? What is the situation regarding domestic militancy now? Who are indeed the main players in this largely traditional society, one which has repeatedly struggled and at times failed to retain its founding ideology of constitutional secularism? What are the dynamics of the intra-religious tensions in its 86% Muslim population? This report will examine the broader jihadist and militant landscape in the country and then move into an analysis of how ISIS is capitalising on the lack of recognition being awarded to the existence of a growing local problem – one that is transitioning into a regional problem. Introduction Islamic fundamentalism in Bangladesh is growing. Despite the steady increase in evidence as to the growing presence of ISIS, the Bangladeshi government moved to wilfully ignore, deny and then suppress at times alarming evidence throughout 2015. These actions are continuing in 2016. Regardless of this political decision, multiple incidents not only point to an irrefutable growth in support for ISIS within Bangladesh but also to worrisome trends of an organic Islamic fundamentalism coupled with a seemingly general rise in radicalisation. ISIS are both capitalising and promoting these trends for their own ends. The government‟s position and stance, one of denial, is counterproductive, particularly at a time when localised groups are making significant overtures to the broader Islamic or jihadist campaign that is evolving regionally and globally. This jump from localised to regionalised agendas is the greatest risk if individual countries choose to ignore what is happening in their own back yards for expediency or political reasons. By the time the problem has morphed into a regional one, it is too late to start addressing it, the strategy then becomes one of engagement and containment.
  • 3. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 2 This report outlines the evidence and provides analysis that the localised groups pursing that radical agenda are communicating more, sharing intelligence, training and pooling resources and potentially working towards a commonality of purpose, much more so than ever before, more importantly, that commonality is currently centring around ISIS. However, it would be easy to bang the ISIS drum and lay all the ills on their door. It is, however, not that simple. The jihadist landscape in Bangladesh is changing, but it has been a slow and quiet and largely unnoticed transition over the past 10 – 15 years and appears to be gaining some tempo now. The cross fertilisation of know-how, experience and common ideologically objectives that are merging into a homogenous agenda is becoming very pronounced. Presence of Other Islamist Militant Groups in Bangladesh According to a report published by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Bangladesh has witnessed two waves of religious radicalism in recent decades. The first (1999-2005) was led by Bangladeshis who fought alongside the Afghan mujahideen in the 1980s and was dominated by groups like Harakat ul-Jihad al-Islami-Bangladesh (HUJI-B) and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB); this wave included hundreds of Bangladeshi youth waging jihad in countries like Afghanistan and Iraq. Upon returning home, they radicalised others and joined local extremist organisations. At the national level, a fundamentalist-friendly coalition led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which included the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and the Islamic Oikya Jote came to power in 2001. It was only in 2005 that the Bangladesh government, acting under international pressure, began banning various extremist and jihadist groups within its borders. The crackdown caused a lull in extremist activity, although various banned outfits continued to function quietly under new names or front organisations. A second wave in religious radicalism was sparked by the secular Awami League-led government‟s setting up of a domestic tribunal in 2010 to try JeI leaders and other Islamists accused of war crimes during the 1971 liberation war. Islamist mobilisation gathered further momentum in early 2013 in response to the Shahbag protests when secular liberals took to the streets and cyberspace to demand the death penalty for those guilty of war crimes. In their blogs, these individuals were extremely critical of Islam and the intolerance of Islamists. Islamists in return denounced secular liberals as “apostates” and openly called for their elimination. For instance, the Chittagong-based Hefajat-e-Islam issued a 13-point demand for Shahbag protestors and “atheist[s]... bloggers and anti-Islamists” to be hanged to death. Of the 84 “enemies of Islam‟” on its “hit list,” nine people have been killed so far and several others have been attacked. “The mujahidin of Bengal (Bangladesh) realised that there was no room for blind partisanship towards
  • 4. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 3 any organisation once the Khilafah (Caliphate) had been declared and that there was no longer legitimacy for any independent jihad organisation … Thus, the sincere men from the various jihad groups rushed to support the Khilafah and join the ranks of its soldiers in Bengal. They united their ranks behind a single Qurashi imam (Abu Bakr al Baghdadi)… Thus, Allah united the ranks of mujahidin in Bengal once again after they were fragmented. He gave them the honour of becoming soldiers of the Khilafah upon the prophetic methodology, inshallah.” − Dabiq - Issue 12 1 In September 2015, United States officials informed Bangladeshi authorities that terrorists linked to Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group were planning to ramp up activities inside Bangladesh. In the months that followed a series of unusual terrorist attacks were witnessed in different parts of the nation and after each incident, ISIS claimed responsibility for carrying out those attacks through social media accounts known to be used by the group. Despite this, Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, and her government rejected those claims outright, denied the existence of ISIS within Bangladesh, and even went ahead to describe the terrorist attacks as part of a conspiracy by the opposition parties to tarnish the government‟s image and the nation‟s progress. Such diametrically opposed views between the Bangladeshi government (and intelligence apparatus) and foreign intelligence services as to the presence of ISIS in Bangladesh have, to say the least, created high levels of confusion on the matter. In real terms this lack of formal acceptance by the Bangladesh authorities notably impedes the understanding of the risks from ISIS in the nation, and as such adds real difficulties in constructing a clear intelligence picture of this critical new threat to their domestic security landscape. In this report, ISS Risk will undertake an objective assessment of the various developments in Bangladesh during the last 18 months, based on open source media reports as well as comments from our own in-country sources, so as to identify the existence of any trends and in turn address the following key questions:  Whether ISIS has any operational presence in Bangladesh?  What is the potential for organic growth of ISIS in Bangladesh in the near term?  What risks are posed to foreign nationals and corporations operating in Bangladesh? Combat Indicators Despite denials by the Bangladeshi ruling political party and authorities several significant events have taken place in the nation during the last 18 months, highlighting, at the very least, the significant ideological and theological influence of ISIS and its leader Abu Bakr al- 1 Dabiq is an official monthly online magazine published by ISIS.
  • 5. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 4 Baghdadi over some Bangladeshi nationals. Chronology of events August 2014  A group of five Bangladeshi nationals declared their oath of allegiance to al-Baghdadi through a video posted in Youtube entitled „Muslims in Bangladesh give Bayah to the Caliphah Ibrahim (Hafiahulla)‟. The five masked men took the oath in Bengali, whilst holding copies of the Quran in their hands and were waving a black and white ISIS style banner written in Arabic. September 2014  Indian security forces arrested four Indian youths in Kolkata who were planning to enter Bangladesh to meet an ISIS recruiter in Dhaka. Their interrogation revealed that another 11 Indian youths were in touch with ISIS handlers in Bangladesh.  Bangladeshi security forces arrested seven members of the banned Bangladeshi Islamist militant group Jamaa‟tul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), including Abdullah al- Tasnim, the acting chief of JMB. As per Bangladeshi police reports, the militants were arrested for establishing contact with ISIS in Syria. Further investigations revealed that JMB was trying to recruit Bangladeshis to fight along ISIS in Syria and Iraq. At the same time, they were also planning to carry out attacks against senior government figures to gain international attention.  A British national of Bangladeshi origin named Samiun Rahman aka Ibn Hamdan Mian was arrested in Dhaka for recruiting Bangladeshi nationals on behalf of ISIS. Police also arrested two local youths for volunteering to travel to Syria with the help of Samiun Rahman. October 2014  Investigations by Indian intelligence agencies revealed that JMB was trying to recruit Muslim youths from West Bengal state in India for fighting along ISIS in Syria. Additionally, JMB was also using West Bengal as a safe haven to export explosives to Bangladesh. January 2015  Police arrested four suspected member of ISIS, including a local coordinator, who was planning the organisation of a series of attacks on important government offices as part of a strategy to establish a Caliphate in Bangladesh. May 2015  Bangladeshi police forces arrested two ISIS recruiters from Dhaka. One of the arrested suspects, Aminul Islam Baig, is reportedly a coordinator for ISIS and also a member of
  • 6. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 5 JMB. The second person arrested was confirmed as a member of JMB. August 2015  Two British nationals of Bangladeshi origin, Ruhul Amin and Reeyad Khan, who had joined ISIS, were killed in British military drone strikes in Syria. September 2015  Bangladeshi PM Sheik Hasina informed British PM David Cameron that British Bangladeshis are fanning extremism in Bangladesh and recruiting people from Bangladesh for fighting in Syria. She requested Cameron step up efforts against the ISIS recruiters coming from Bangladeshi communities in the UK.  Three unidentified assailants shot and killed an Italian aid worker as he walked on the street in the high-security diplomatic quarter of Dhaka. ISIS later claimed responsibility for the attack through a verified social media account and warned that citizens of the „crusader coalition‟ would not be safe in Muslim nations. October 2015  Five days after the murder of the Italian aid worker, another group of unidentified gunmen killed a Japanese national in Rangpur, Northern Bangladesh. ISIS again claimed responsibility for the attack. Two months later, following investigations, Bangladeshi police claimed that JMB was involved behind the murder of this Japanese national.  One person was killed and more than 100 others were injured when three IEDs were detonated amid thousands of Shia Muslims gathering for the Ashura procession in Dhaka. ISIS later claimed responsibility for the attack.  More than two dozen Christian priests, nuns and aid workers from different parts of the nation received death threats. Those who sent the threats claimed they belonged to both ISIS and JMB. November 2015  ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack on a police checkpoint outside Dhaka that left one police officer killed and a second injured.  ISIS claimed responsibility for a failed assassination attempt on a minority Bahai community leader in Rangpur, northern Bangladesh.  ISIS claimed responsibility for a failed assassination attempt on an Italian priest in Dinajpur, northern Bangladesh.  One person was killed and three others injured when attackers opened fire during evening prayers at a Shia mosque in Shibganj, northern Bangladesh. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.  ISIS published an article titled „The revival of Jihad in Bengal with the spread of the light
  • 7. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 6 of the Khilafah‟ in its monthly online magazine, Dabiq. The article heaped praise upon JMB for being „a true jihadi organisation‟, whilst labelling other political parties of the nation as apostates and atheists. Inside the article ISIS claimed responsibility for several different attacks that had been carried out in Bangladesh, whilst threatening to carry out more attacks. The article also announced that a regional leader had been appointed for Bangladesh – although the name of the individual was not given.  Al Hayat, the media platform of ISIS, published an audio clip in Bengali urging Muslim youths of „Bengal‟ (note: this could refer to both the West Bengal state in India and / or simply to Bangladesh itself) to join the group. Indian intelligence officials were able to trace the origin of the audio clip to within Bangladesh. Image 1: ISIS claiming responsibility for the attack on Shia mosque in Bogra on 26 November, 2015 Image 2: ISIS publishing a timeline of its attacks from September – November, 2015
  • 8. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 7 December 2015  ISIS claimed responsibility for a suicide attack targeting a minority Ahmedia mosque in Rajshahi, northern Bangladesh, killing one person and injuring another ten people. The police chief of Bangladesh described the incident as the first suicide attack of the nation and blamed JMB for the incident.  A British educated Bangladeshi national Siful Haque Sujan aka Abu Khalid al-Bengali was killed by US drone strikes near Raqaa in Syria. He was considered a prominent member of the ISIS external operations department, and was considered among the group‟s top cyber experts, actively involved in hacking and counter-surveillance activities. Discernible patterns ISIS has clearly devoted a significant amount of its media and propaganda resources to Bangladesh.  This has been aptly demonstrated through publications focused on Bangladesh via its online Dabiq magazine or Al Hayat media front platforms, or through the claiming of attacks through (verified) ISIS social media accounts.  The allocation of such resources by ISIS unequivocally denotes the Group as having genuine interest in Bangladesh, as part of their wider strategic objectives. Bangladesh, as the third most populous Muslim nation in the world (with over 94% of these Muslims following Sunni Islam), both logically and naturally holds great interest for ISIS. ISIS recruiters have been identified as being both present and active in Bangladesh since September 2014 … with intelligence garnered from arrests in India identifying an ISIS recruiter operating in Dhaka at that time.  This observation gains further credence from two further incidents later that same month. Firstly, arrests by Bangladeshi police of JMB cadres for establishing contact with ISIS and attempting to send recruits to Syria, and secondly the arrest of a British national operating as an ISIS recruiter in Dhaka.  For recruiters to have begun operating in Bangladesh from September 2014, it is our conclusive assessment that actual contacts between ISIS and potential Bangladeshi recruiters should have taken place months earlier, and that this was most likely facilitated or done through (the unspecified number of) Bangladeshi jihadis who had already joined ISIS in Syria.  This September 2014 „tipping point‟ in Bangladesh makes even more sense when it is put in a wider context of ISIS‟ global profile at the time. During the middle months of
  • 9. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 8 2014, ISIS was making global headlines from its operations in the Middle East and North Africa – the military capture of Mosul in Iraq, the declaring of a Caliphate, a long series of unprecedented brutalities and (strategic) violations of human rights against minorities. Such achievements and headline grabbing actions made ISIS an undisputed leader of the global jihad movement in the eyes of radicals from across the world - including those in Bangladesh. Undoubtedly such a time was considered most suitable for ISIS to initiate a serious recruitment drive into Bangladesh, as it did elsewhere.  A definite and close connection exists between ISIS in Bangladesh and the JMB … many incidents where JMB cadres have been found as having established contact with ISIS, former JMB members identified as active recruiters for ISIS, attacks claimed by ISIS identified as being carried out by former or current JMB members, threats to minorities being issued in the name of both JMB and ISIS etc.  These observations could be interpreted two ways – either JMB is using the ISIS brand name to gain support and credibility, or JMB has made a strategic decision to ally with ISIS and in turn, has been allowed to look after the Bangladeshi operations and grow the organisational structure of ISIS in the country.  To contextualise these interpretations further, a critical piece of contemporaneous data should be highlighted. In the latest issue of Dabiq, a leading article on jihad in Bengal saw much praise shown to both the JMB and its deceased spiritual leader Shaykh Abdur Rahman for having founded a „proper jihad organisation in Bangladesh‟ based upon the Salafi ideology.  What needs to be recognised at this juncture is that ISIS is very sceptical and reticent in acknowledging the activities of other jihadi organisations, or as accepting them as pursuing a „proper jihad‟, as it wants to project itself as the only true follower of jihad and Islam. On top of this, ISIS has rarely praised other jihadi organisations openly for pursuing the jihad the „proper way‟. So this open endorsement of JMB by ISIS is most likely the result of an understanding between the two groups.  It is our assessment that JMB has either become an affiliate of ISIS or it is in the advanced stage of becoming one. A formal and open declaration is, perhaps, not being made for tactical reasons – to avoid increased domestic and international attention and scrutiny. When examining these events it has been noted that until the middle of 2015, the Bangladeshi security forces were arresting ISIS recruiters and suspected ISIS members as well as confiscating their weapons on a regular basis. Up until this point Bangladeshi security forces were openly acknowledging ISIS‟ operational presence within Bangladesh. However, this recognition of ISIS operating within its borders changed with the murder of the Italian aid worker in Dhaka in September 2015. Overnight, all reference to ISIS
  • 10. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 9 was removed from any police/security forces press release.  A source from within Bangladesh stated that ISIS related activities continued at an even pace throughout 2015; the only difference being that following September the government decided to replace any reference to ISIS with that of JMB. In short, attacks by ISIS in Bangladesh are being purposefully attributed to JMB alone, by the Bangladeshi government. In fact as discussed in the previous section, very little difference exists between JMB and ISIS in the Bangladeshi context. Therein, attacks claimed by ISIS in late 2015 but publically attributed to the JMB by the Bangladeshi government, should in all likelihood be considered as a corroboration of ISIS‟ own claims of direct involvement. ISIS Operational Presence in Bangladesh Based on our own research and source comments, we have sufficient reason to believe that ISIS has a developed operational presence within Bangladesh. Specifically this means that there are individuals inside Bangladesh who have direct contact with ISIS‟ Syria-based leadership and that these individuals act upon instructions received directly from this high command structure. Leadership The current operational head of ISIS in Bangladesh is a dual Canadian-Bangladeshi citizen – let us call him Mr TAC for the purposes of this Report. As the operational chief, Mr TAC is entrusted with the responsibility of developing an ISIS network within Bangladesh and also to act as a conduit between pro-ISIS elements inside the nation and the ISIS leadership in Syria. Inside Syria, the Bangladesh operations of ISIS were historically handled by the now deceased London based Bangladeshi national Siful Haque Sujan aka Abu Khalid al-Bengali and his close associate, an Australian jihadi named Neil Prakash aka Abu Khalid al- Cambodi2 . It is worth mentioning at this point that al-Bengali was a member of the ISIS‟ external operations departments – the wing responsible for ISIS‟s organisational growth outside Iraq and Syria as well the execution of cell-based attacks abroad. The Paris attacks of November 2015 were sanctioned by this external operations department of ISIS and it is headed by Abu Muhammed al-Adnani, who is also the spokesperson of ISIS. The department‟s central importance to ISIS and its global caliphate ambitions speaks for itself. 2 Al-Cambodi is also known for his recruitment and radicalisation of the British teenager of Bangladeshi origins who planned an attack during ANZAC Day in Melbourne in April 2015
  • 11. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 10 Mr TAC‟s primary directive is the facilitation of travel for jihadists from Bangladesh to Syria. A mission he reportedly received guidance on from al-Bengali and al-Cambodi. Mr TAC‟s close associate in this endeavour was a Muhammed Aminul Islam Baig, also a former member of JMB, who was arrested by the Bangladeshi police in May 2015 on charges related to him being an ISIS coordinator. During interrogation, Baig revealed that he had recruited at least 25 students to join ISIS in Syria. Additionally, he also revealed that both financing and logistical support were channelled through a Bangladeshi national based in an East Asian country. Baig further revealed that Bangladeshi recruits were sent to Syria via Turkey disguised as volunteers for Islamic NGOs such as Hizb-ut-Tahrir (HuT) and Ummah Welfare Trust (UWT) – organisations which have deep penetration in Bangladeshi society3 . It is our assessment that this particular East Asian nation was selected for an aggressive recruiting drive by ISIS as part of its strategy in Asia, as travelling to the Middle East from this country would not trigger red flags unlike for persons travelling to the same destination from Southeast Asia. Another known close contact of Mr TAC was former JMB Acting Chief Abdullah al-Tasnim, who was arrested in September 2014. As mentioned earlier in the Report, al-Tasnim was arrested for establishing contacts with ISIS and for recruiting Bangladeshi nationals to fight with ISIS in Syria. In the Dabiq article on Bangladesh it was reported that a leader had been appointed for Bangladesh, although the identity of this appointed person was kept hidden. It is our assessment that Mr TAC was actually appointed as the leader of ISIS in Bangladesh, most probably as such an appointment would had given him at once both sufficient authority to deal with and the right to command the different jihadist factions in Bangladesh. Recruitment and efforts to establish allegiances with indigenous groups The Dabiq article on Bangladesh was very interesting in two separate senses in that it was written by a Bangladeshi, who clearly held a deep understanding of the jihadi ideological and theological discourse inside Bangladesh and that secondly, the article gave real insight into ISIS‟ target audience within Bangladesh. Other key features to the article were it‟s ridiculing of groups which follow al-Qaeda and it‟s blaming of al-Qaeda for the acceptance of Mullah Omar as the leader of the global jihad movement. The article also mocked Ayman al- Zawihiri, the current leader of al-Qaeda, as an unwise man, hiding in some unknown place, releasing outdated video messages with pledges of allegiance to a dead man and scolding others for not doing the same. In the Bangladeshi context, the true target of this extended ridicule and anti al-Qaeda diatribe was the banned militant outfit Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), the group responsible for the murder of several secular bloggers in Bangladesh in the 3 HuT in particular has an extended and significant presence across universities in Bangladesh.
  • 12. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 11 last few years. ABT is known to subscribe to the al-Qaeda ideology and according to some sources, is a part of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). Very interestingly however, and although appearing to be deeply contradictory owing to ideological differences, there are reports that ISIS coordinators and recruiters in Bangladesh have forged and maintained contact with members of ABT. Among the suspected ISIS recruiters and members arrested by the Bangladesh police in the last year or so, a small number were identified as former known members of ABT. Consequently, it is our assessment that ISIS Bangladesh is in fact favourably disposed towards ABT and would like to have ABT enter its fold. Through its radicalised members and proven capacity for violent attacks, the ABT has shown itself to be a worthy potential ally / affiliate of ISIS Bangladesh and that this outreaching by ISIS to ABT members (and therein the group) is an appeal to ABT to ditch al-Qaeda and join ISIS. ISIS operational claims in late 2015 – validity of these claims? Regarding the different attacks claimed by ISIS in the last 3-4 months, it is our assessment that they were indeed sanctioned by the Bangladesh chapter of ISIS and that these were most likely executed by local members of JMB. The speed of ISIS‟ claiming of responsibility after the vast majority of the attacks in this period would also indicate that someone with prior operational knowledge to the attacks was also co-ordinating the “claiming of the attacks on behalf of ISIS”. Yet controversy has surrounded these initial attack claims from ISIS (or its conduit), with the Bangladesh government (and some sections of its media) defaming SITE Intelligence Group4 , for spreading false rumours against Bangladesh. Objectively speaking however, the attacks disputed as being ISIS driven or not, were in fact subsequently claimed by ISIS in its official Dabiq magazine on its report on Bangladesh. This arguably proves two things – first, that the claims by ISIS were genuine and that second, ISIS high command in Syria had approved the carrying out of these attacks under their banner. Both points, either singularly or together further prove that ISIS does have a potentially significant operational presence inside Bangladesh. Key points to ISIS’ organisational setup in Bangladesh These points being:  Presence of a local executive structure, with a locally appointed leader who discharges his operational role with several close associates  Local leadership and command structure receives instructions and advice from ISIS‟ 4 A Maryland, USA based private organisation which had tracked each of these claims via the social media sources
  • 13. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 12 external operations wing headquartered in Syria  Local Leader holds the responsibility for facilitating the travel of recruits to Syria through Bangladesh  Clear evidence of both the establishment of local alliances, the takeover of local jihadist groups and ongoing works to build further alliances with local jihadist groups – examples being the potent strategic partnership achieved with the JMB, and the strongest indications that efforts are ongoing to enter into the same with ABT  ISIS Bangladesh‟s core members are mostly ex-JMB operatives, with a small but growing number of ex-ABT operatives also likely to have joined  Intelligence gathered showing that ISIS Bangladesh members have close personal contacts with JMB and ABT through previous organisational connections / group membership  Documented evidence that attacks carried out in the name of ISIS are being mostly carried out by local JMB cadres Escalation in Modus Operandi Operational capabilities - Explosives Until September 2014, the terrorist attacks carried out by groups like JMB were very rudimentary from an explosives technology perspective. Crude bombs were used, with Molotov Cocktail style explosives being the most common. A prime example of the limits to the JMB‟s explosives capabilities prior to 2014 comes from what was then perceived as one of the most daring militant attacks in Bangladesh to that date. JMB operatives attacked a prisoner transport van so as to set free three of their members. Media reports at the time described how many crude bombs were exploded during the raid, but the only police fatality came not from an explosion but from a gunshot. A further example of this leading local terrorist group‟s clear limitations as to its explosives‟ potency owing to an absence of technical know-how and sophistication comes from the country‟s biggest terrorist attack to date. In August 2005 approximately 500 bombs exploded at 300 locations in 63 of the nation‟s 64 districts, all within a 30 minute window – yet only two people were killed by the explosions themselves. Reflective of the limited potency of the explosive devices used despite their number and the locations used for their detonation. The limitations to the JMB‟s bomb making capabilities and the explosive‟s potency demonstrated a stark change following September 2014 - the so called „tipping point‟ date to ISIS‟ establishment of its footprint in Bangladesh. First indications of this change were found when JMB‟s then Acting Chief Abdullah al-Tasnim was arrested in Dhaka in September 2014 in possession of four IEDs, 75 electronic detonators, 10kg of Powergel and other bomb
  • 14. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 13 making equipment. Image 3: Items recovered during the arrest of Abdullah al-Tasnim, September 2014 Only a few weeks later in October 2014, JMB operatives hiding in India accidentally triggered an explosion while preparing IEDs in a safe house in the border state of West Bengal. What was found by investigators revealed that the group‟s technical know-how relating to explosives‟ was changing dramatically, and that equally worryingly that some of the raw materials recovered could only have been procured from abroad. Forensic tests revealed the presence of Class II type gel explosives, the remnants of electrical circuits as well as dummy shells from rocket propelled grenades. Apart from traces of potassium and nitrate ions, articles like soldering irons, small ball bearings, table clocks, metallic springs, iron sockets, batteries, signal switch boards and fine wires were also found. Investigators also found several pieces of „Powergel 90‟ explosives. Blueprints for making IEDs were also recovered, as were documents that had detailed information on various chemical compositions and the mechanical processes and electrical circuits used in conjunction with home-based materials as well as explosives such as RDX and PETN. In short, the forensic tests by the Indian authorities concluded that the explosives found were of very high quality. Evidently, JMB‟s bomb making techniques were rapidly becoming increasingly sophisticated within the shortest time subsequent to ISIS establishing itself in Bangladesh in September 2014. Given the close relations between the two organisations, the JMB‟s very rapid improvement in its bomb making skills cannot be seen as a mere coincidence. It is our assessment that this significant change in their operational capabilities in relation to
  • 15. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 14 explosives was made possible only through the knowledge transfer from veterans of the Syria conflict who had fought with ISIS. A year later, the potency of the JMB‟s explosives capabilities was demonstrated when an explosives attack was made during the Ashura procession in Dhaka in October 2015. The attack killed one and left over 100 persons injured. Further changes brought to the jihadi landscape of Bangladesh by ISIS’ entry As one can imagine the impact of ISIS establishing itself in Bangladesh is not limited to just the introduction of a higher level of explosives expertise. The group has fundamentally changed the jihadi discourse in Bangladesh through its targeting on non-Sunni Muslims, thereby introducing a sectarian overtone to the jihadi landscape in the nation for the first time. Another „first‟, was the suicide attack committed in December 2015 – something which had not been witnessed in the jihadi movements in Bangladesh. Within a year of its operations within Bangladesh ISIS have not only provided relatively advanced IED capabilities to the jihadis in Bangladesh, it has also convinced its followers to direct their hatred towards non-Sunnis, so-called rafidah (rejecters), so much so that Iraq- style suicide vests were used to kill these „rejecters‟. This is a rather impressive performance for a group which is still barely a year into its entry into the nation. A performance made doubly impressive by the fact that according to the nation‟s government, ISIS does not even have a presence in the nation. The trends and evidence proffered above point unambiguously to the improving capabilities of the indigenous groupings in Bangladesh. Under the stewardship and leadership of ISIS these formally disparate groups pose a larger threat. Their inclusion into a regional network, a network being developed to be not just to have a „regional presence‟, but will ultimately feed into and become ingrained, in an ideological sense, into a much larger network. The Other Militant Players and Historic Growth of Activity in Bangladesh Bangladesh has witnessed a steady growth in militant activity over the past 10-15 years, but particularly in the past 5 years. However, one must clarify that a lot of this „militant activity‟ was not concentric around radical Islam. There were many „local issue militant groups‟ that have emerged in this time frame pursuing limited and manageable agendas, some of which may not even count as actual „militancy‟, it really depends on one‟s definition.
  • 16. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 15 a) Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) The group was established in 1992, allegedly with the support of Osama Bin Laden‟s International Islamic Front. Their overall goal is to establish Islamic rule in Bangladesh through waging war and over the past have long seen to be heavily influenced by the Taliban, demonstrated through their motto „Amra Sobai Hobo Taliban, Bangla Hobe Afghanistan’ (We will all become Taliban and we will turn Bangladesh into Afghanistan). Reports suggest that their area of operations and training are largely to the South-East of the country, in both the coastal and mountainous areas around Chittagong. In addition the group has been suspected of infiltrating the eastern corridors of India, maintaining contact with Islamic extremist elements over the border and allegedly being responsible for attacks in Indian urban areas over the years. Reports also indicate a connection between the group and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan‟s external intelligence agency, during both training and operations in the area. Although the last several years has not born witness to confirmed large scale attacks by this group and instead seen continued arrests and detention of its members, raids are still uncovering elements of the group with the equipment necessary for launching an attack. This became apparent most recently in June 2015, when police conducting separate raids in Dhaka arrested nine militants belonging to the group, along with five kilograms of explosives and 14 different types of explosive devices. b) Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB) The Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB), was an Islamist vigilante outfit that
  • 17. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 16 espouses the ideals of the Taliban, attempting to ensure that the north-western region of the country is „swept clean‟ of the activities of left-wing extremist groups, primarily the Purba Banglar Communist Party (PBCP). Although violent activity stemming from the group seems to have stopped completely by mid-2005, the group is still listed as a banned organisation by the government. c) Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) It‟s believed that the group originated in 2007 known as Jama‟atul Muslemin with funding from different NGOs. The group ceased operation when funding dried up and resurfaced under the current name in 2013. At present the ABT is best known for claiming responsibility for the killing of six secular bloggers including a U.S. citizen, Avijit Roy, since 2013. In addition the ABT has officially become a banned organisation with an announcement by the Interior Ministry in May of this year due to the group‟s involvement in a bank heist, allegedly in order to assist their funding in further operations against the state. Considered to have been inspired and possibly associated with Al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-Continent (AQIS), the group according to police has links to another radical group Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS). Interestingly, the official media outlet for ABT is a global Islamist propaganda organisation named Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF), which is known to be associated with transnational jihadist groups like al-Qaeda and the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) – demonstrating the international connections of ABT. d) Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS) This group is the student wing of Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (JeI), a banned yet extremely influential political party which came into existence in 1941. The JeI, despite its mantra of “Allah‟s Law” may resemble rhetoric similar to that used by ISIS and JMB, however its main focus is deemed to lie with gaining more influence politically. The ICS have been known to conduct violent attacks mainly in the form of petrol bombings, setting vehicles and other infrastructure alight. The alleged motive of such attacks are said to be aimed at protesting decisions made by the ruling party as opposed to enforcing Sharia Law. In addition, it has been suggested that the group maintains strong links with Pakistan‟s ISI. With its assistance, it is reportedly working to support Islamist subversive agendas in many regions in India, particularly in areas bordering Bangladesh. The ISI, as well as foreign nations such as Saudi Arabia are also reportedly providing a substantial amount of funding to the ICS. Lastly the group, being one of the largest Islamist student organisations in South Asia is also considered to be a feeder organisation to groups such as the Taliban, especially during
  • 18. Intelligent Security Solutions Limited Frontier & Emerging Markets Analysis Page | 17 recent years in Afghanistan. Conclusion Against this backdrop of latently increasing radicalisation and the emerging ISIS presence, coupled with the refusal by the government to acknowledge a growing ISIS presence, the conditions are being nurtured to allow ISIS to explode onto the scene in Bangladesh in a „seemingly unexpected way‟. That tends to be the impression if one has one‟s head in the proverbial sand! In reality if the organisations being courted by or offering allegiance to ISIS were to be infiltrated and curtailed at this early stage of growth then the prospects for an „alleged surprise ISIS emergence‟ in the country could be mitigated. However, this is wishful thinking and it is unlikely to play out like that. ISIS will make their presence felt in due course, the government will continue to pursue their „all is fine, there is no ISIS problem in Bangladesh‟ attitude, until ISIS makes it presence undeniably felt. Then the scrabble for deflection of blame and shirking responsibility will start in earnest. By then the tentacles of ISIS and more importantly, a broadening of the aspirations of the Islamic Jihadists towards the globalisation of the greater Jihad, or a clash of civilisations, exacerbating existing fault lines as such will be advanced. Fault lines within the Bangladeshi society, and within Islam in Bangladesh are at this stage facing serious stresses which can potentially threaten its political system, national economy, viability as a destination for foreign investment, international / regional business and commerce, domestic security and of course it‟s founding secular principles.