The document is a collection of charts analyzing the financial condition and fiscal outlook of the U.S. government. Section I focuses on debt and deficits, showing that if current policies remain unchanged, debt held by the public is projected to exceed GDP by over 1,000% by 2080. The total debt includes intragovernmental debt owed to programs like Social Security as well as debt held by the public, both domestic and foreign. Within 10 years, total U.S. public debt including state and local debt is projected to reach the current debt level of Greece as a percentage of GDP.
1) Under current policies, the U.S. debt held by the public is projected to exceed GDP by over 1,000% by 2080, compared to around 60% of GDP currently.
2) Total U.S. debt including intragovernmental holdings is around $12.9 trillion or 89% of GDP currently, with 58% held by the public and 31% in intragovernmental debt.
3) Eliminating the Bush tax cuts and ending overseas military deployments would have a small impact on long-term fiscal projections, reducing the fiscal gap by around 1.8% of GDP by 2080.
The document is a collection of charts prepared by a research team at The Foundation analyzing the financial condition and fiscal outlook of the U.S. government. Section I focuses on debt and deficits, showing that if current policies remain unchanged, debt held by the public is projected to exceed GDP by over 1,000% by 2080. It also breaks down total debt into intragovernmental debt and debt held by the public, with the latter currently around $8.4 trillion or 58% of GDP. Within 10 years, total U.S. public debt including state and local debt is projected to reach Greece's current debt level of 120% of GDP.
The document provides information to attract investors to Colombia, including competitive tax incentives for investors in free trade zones and through legal stability contracts. Key sectors highlighted for investment opportunities include biofuels, cosmetics, IT services, tourism, and medical tourism. Colombia's GDP and exports have grown in recent years, while unemployment and inflation remain moderate. The government offers world-class services to support foreign investment.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Building Permits and Construction - Canada - January 2020paul young cpa, cga
The total value of building permits issued in Canada increased 4.0% to $9.2 billion in January 2020. Increases were reported in six provinces led by British Columbia which saw a 52.1% rise to $2.2 billion, largely due to multiple projects in the Vancouver CMA. The residential sector reported strong gains of 12.7% to $5.8 billion, while the non-residential sector decreased 7.8% to $3.5 billion mainly due to a decline in institutional permits following gains in December 2019.
Reinsurance in Spain, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2016ReportsnReports
The report provides an in-depth analysis of the reinsurance market in Spain from 2007 to 2016, including historical market values and forecasts. It examines the market by reinsurance categories and types of direct insurance ceded. The Spanish reinsurance market grew from 2007 to 2011 and is expected to continue growing with the implementation of Solvency II regulations and an improving economy. The report profiles the top 11 reinsurance companies in Spain and provides key facts for the top 7 companies. It also analyzes factors influencing the insurance industry and economic environment in Spain such as GDP, unemployment, demographics, and political/social risk.
This document provides an overview of renewable energy technologies and drivers for renewable energy investment. It discusses solar photovoltaics, solar hot water, biomass, wind, and other renewable options. The key drivers for renewable energy are described as economic stability, environmental sustainability, and energy security. The document then summarizes various renewable energy policies and incentives across U.S. states.
The Greek parliament passed additional austerity measures but Greece's debt remains unsustainable. The Troika acknowledged Greek debt is unsustainable and options like extending maturities or lowering interest rates could help. However, Greece will likely need more funds and its debt will exceed the 2020 target of 120% GDP. Further austerity has been associated with a 15% GDP decline making debt relief necessary to keep Greece in the eurozone.
1) Under current policies, the U.S. debt held by the public is projected to exceed GDP by over 1,000% by 2080, compared to around 60% of GDP currently.
2) Total U.S. debt including intragovernmental holdings is around $12.9 trillion or 89% of GDP currently, with 58% held by the public and 31% in intragovernmental debt.
3) Eliminating the Bush tax cuts and ending overseas military deployments would have a small impact on long-term fiscal projections, reducing the fiscal gap by around 1.8% of GDP by 2080.
The document is a collection of charts prepared by a research team at The Foundation analyzing the financial condition and fiscal outlook of the U.S. government. Section I focuses on debt and deficits, showing that if current policies remain unchanged, debt held by the public is projected to exceed GDP by over 1,000% by 2080. It also breaks down total debt into intragovernmental debt and debt held by the public, with the latter currently around $8.4 trillion or 58% of GDP. Within 10 years, total U.S. public debt including state and local debt is projected to reach Greece's current debt level of 120% of GDP.
The document provides information to attract investors to Colombia, including competitive tax incentives for investors in free trade zones and through legal stability contracts. Key sectors highlighted for investment opportunities include biofuels, cosmetics, IT services, tourism, and medical tourism. Colombia's GDP and exports have grown in recent years, while unemployment and inflation remain moderate. The government offers world-class services to support foreign investment.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. March 2021Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
Building Permits and Construction - Canada - January 2020paul young cpa, cga
The total value of building permits issued in Canada increased 4.0% to $9.2 billion in January 2020. Increases were reported in six provinces led by British Columbia which saw a 52.1% rise to $2.2 billion, largely due to multiple projects in the Vancouver CMA. The residential sector reported strong gains of 12.7% to $5.8 billion, while the non-residential sector decreased 7.8% to $3.5 billion mainly due to a decline in institutional permits following gains in December 2019.
Reinsurance in Spain, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2016ReportsnReports
The report provides an in-depth analysis of the reinsurance market in Spain from 2007 to 2016, including historical market values and forecasts. It examines the market by reinsurance categories and types of direct insurance ceded. The Spanish reinsurance market grew from 2007 to 2011 and is expected to continue growing with the implementation of Solvency II regulations and an improving economy. The report profiles the top 11 reinsurance companies in Spain and provides key facts for the top 7 companies. It also analyzes factors influencing the insurance industry and economic environment in Spain such as GDP, unemployment, demographics, and political/social risk.
This document provides an overview of renewable energy technologies and drivers for renewable energy investment. It discusses solar photovoltaics, solar hot water, biomass, wind, and other renewable options. The key drivers for renewable energy are described as economic stability, environmental sustainability, and energy security. The document then summarizes various renewable energy policies and incentives across U.S. states.
The Greek parliament passed additional austerity measures but Greece's debt remains unsustainable. The Troika acknowledged Greek debt is unsustainable and options like extending maturities or lowering interest rates could help. However, Greece will likely need more funds and its debt will exceed the 2020 target of 120% GDP. Further austerity has been associated with a 15% GDP decline making debt relief necessary to keep Greece in the eurozone.
This document outlines Coca-Cola's strategic vision and plans for 2020. It projects continued global economic growth, rising incomes, and 1 billion new consumers entering the global economy by 2020. This will drive increased consumption of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. Coca-Cola aims to more than double its system revenue over this period while expanding margins. Its 2020 business agenda focuses on maximizing cash flow, winning with Coca-Cola brands, accelerating innovation, and optimizing its franchise structure. Coca-Cola also outlines social commitments around sustainability, water stewardship, and promoting active healthy living.
This article about study of current situation of economy and pandemic impact on global economy. How long it will take to recover with the quote of GDP growth and Service PMI of key nations.
1. The document analyzes economic indicators and recovery efforts in various countries in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds signs of partial, uneven recovery as countries reopen and consumer spending increases but long-term impacts remain uncertain.
2. Purchasing Managers' Index data shows a sharper than expected recovery in many countries in May, though growth remains below pre-pandemic levels. Services sectors are recovering more slowly than others.
3. While stimulus measures have fueled initial rebounds, long-term recovery depends on resolving health uncertainties and restarting sectors like education and international travel that remain restricted. Full economic stability may not return until late 2021.
Global and-spanish economic perspectives Q3 2021 Quarterly Report December 2021JoseLuisSanz9
Global economic situation
The world economys recovery continues although its sustainability isn tassured in a context of pandemic outbreaks and uncertainty about its future evolution, disruptions in supply chains and inflationary pressures on raw materials and energy. The differing vaccination rates and the support policies applied in each country to lessen the pandemic s impact have deepened divergences in growth, mainly between advanced economies and low income countries.
A positive performance is expected in all world regions in 2021, although growth in sub Saharan Africa and the Middle East will be lower than in the rest of the regions. Inadequate access to vaccines and regional political instability are two of the causes of this worse performance.
Brazil has a large, diverse economy based around agriculture, mining, manufacturing and services. It is a major global producer and exporter of commodities like coffee, sugar, meat and soy. The economy has grown steadily in recent years due to prudent macroeconomic policies, but faces challenges in improving infrastructure and implementing economic reforms. Dubai has significantly increased its exports to Brazil in recent years across sectors such as metals, textiles and vehicles.
Carmen Reinhart presents on the challenges of high debt levels in advanced economies following the global financial crisis. Some key points:
1) Advanced economies continue to struggle with public and private debt overhangs, lower growth, high unemployment, and weak deleveraging since the crisis.
2) Financial repression, including directed lending to governments, interest rate caps, and tighter bank regulation, is re-emerging as a tool to reduce debt burdens following large debt accumulations.
3) Debt relief in past crises has occurred through economic growth, austerity, default/restructuring, inflation, or sustained financial repression combined with inflation - but these options are difficult for advanced economies currently facing high debt
Relatório Risco Credito Portugal (05/2012)João Pinto
Portugal has a population of 10.6 million and a GDP of 241.9 billion US dollars. The country experienced economic recession from 2009 to 2011 due to the impacts of austerity measures and slowing demand from Europe. Public and private debt levels are high at over 100% of GDP. While Portugal has strengths like its infrastructure and tourism industry, it also faces weaknesses such as low productivity, dependence on Europe, and weak government finances. Payments in Portugal are mainly done through bills of exchange, checks, and bank transfers, while debt collection can involve out of court settlement efforts or formal legal proceedings.
The economy of Japan is the third largest in the world. Japan has a highly skilled workforce and is a global leader in many industries such as automobiles, electronics, and manufacturing. The country has a well-developed transportation network including high-speed rail lines connecting major cities, over 100 domestic airports, and an extensive system of highways. Tokyo is the economic and financial center of Japan with the largest city GDP in Asia.
Ivo Pezzuto - "World Economy. Resilience or Great Reset" Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
The document discusses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. It notes that while the pandemic will certainly leave lasting scars, it may also catalyze transformations like increased digitalization. The pandemic caused a historic contraction in the global economy as lockdowns halted activity. This has hit many companies and economies hard. There is uncertainty around how long the pandemic and its effects will last. The response from governments, central banks, and international organizations has involved massive stimulus measures to support public health and economic recovery. However, high global debt levels and risks to vulnerable emerging economies are major concerns going forward.
Prezentācija "Globālās ekonomikas tendences"Latvijas Banka
The document provides an overview of selected global economic trends and drivers behind them. It discusses that life today is better than ever before with fewer people living in extreme poverty, higher literacy rates, and decreased child mortality. It also notes that China's economic rise has been impressive as its GDP has grown significantly in recent decades, though this is partially due to China returning to its historic large share of global GDP. Globalization benefits the global middle class and very rich the most while the very poor and middle class in advanced economies have benefited less. Many feel left behind by globalization and economic changes, affecting political outcomes. Climate change also poses physical and transition risks to the economy and financial system.
Digital advertising continues to show strong growth across all channels. Search remains the primary driver of ROI, and as mobile and tablet traffic increases 400% annually, advertisers will increase their search investments across devices. This will lead search on devices to grow as quickly as social media, positively impacting global search spending growth.
The document provides a weekly update on the global oil and gas markets. It discusses how the upcoming US presidential election is unlikely to significantly impact near-term energy markets. Oil, gas, and equity markets continue looking past current economic weakness as demand recovers slower than expected. US natural gas prices have risen due to declining production and increasing demand from LNG exports and industry. Jet fuel demand remains weak as air travel has not recovered, impacting oil demand forecasts through 2021. The document also provides brief details on EY as an organization focused on the oil and gas sector.
The weekly market perspectives document provided an overview of the global financial markets and key economic indicators. It noted that Spain has yet to formally request external financial support and discussed the potential impact of such a request. It also summarized recent economic data from Europe, the US, and other regions that continued to point to ongoing recession pressures. The preview section outlined some of the major economic reports and events to watch in the coming week.
- Global stock markets traded sharply lower and bond yields fell to record lows amid risk-off sentiment ahead of key central bank meetings and the UK's Brexit referendum. Soft Chinese economic data also weighed on markets.
- Polls show continued momentum for the "Leave" campaign ahead of the June 23 UK vote on European Union membership. Recent Chinese data came in at multi-year lows or as expected.
- Several M&A deals were announced, including Symantec's $4.65B acquisition of Blue Coat and Bain Capital and KKR reportedly moving to the second round of bidding for Nissan's stake in Calsonic Kansai. Company updates and analyst meetings were also scheduled.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
Life Insurance in Venezuela, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2016ReportsnReports
The report provides an in-depth analysis of the life insurance market in Venezuela between 2007-2016. It finds that while life insurance accounted for the lowest share of the overall Venezuelan insurance industry in 2011, the segment grew at a 31.7% CAGR from 2007-2011 due to the introduction of mandatory funeral insurance and improvements in consumer purchasing power. Changes to the regulatory framework also supported growth. The report expects the life insurance segment in Venezuela to continue growing at a 25.7% CAGR through 2016, driven predominantly through agencies and insurance brokers. It provides historical data, market forecasts, and competitive analysis of the top life insurers in the country.
Latvijas Bankas Starptautisko attiecību un komunikācijas pārvaldes vadītāja Jura Kravaļa lekcija "Globālās ekonomikas tendences" Biznesa augstskolā "Turība" 2019. gada 8. oktobrī.
- The Covid-19 outbreak and collapse of the OPEC+ alliance have created a perfect storm in the oil markets, with both a reduction in demand due to the economic slowdown and a coming oversupply as Saudi Arabia and Russia increase production.
- Oil prices have collapsed to around $36 per barrel and could fall further, pressuring the budgets of oil producing countries who need higher prices. This will weaken the economies of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC members.
- The renewable energy sector may also see delays and slower growth as supply chains are disrupted and economic difficulties reduce investment and subsidies. Gas markets will remain oversupplied and depressed.
- The European Green Deal faces challenges
This forecast was done in a highly volatile environment and under assumptions that may not turn out to be true. We assume most of the economic activity restrictions to be lifted by the end of the second quarter. We expect substantial damage to the economy from domestic restrictions and lower external demand. A gradual recovery is expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than the pre-crisis level. We project real GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020. Consumer inflation is forecasted to accelerate only to 7.5% yoy in December as weak demand will limit the impact of higher inflation expectations and weaker hryvnia. We used UAH 28.7 per USD as an average 2020 exchange rate in forecast calculations.
The document discusses the growing fiscal challenges facing the U.S. government based on selected charts from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. It finds that absent reforms:
1) The U.S. public debt is projected to exceed 100% of GDP by 2020 and 300% by 2040, far surpassing levels seen since World War II.
2) U.S. debt levels will be over 40% higher than other advanced economies by 2015.
3) Federal budget deficits are projected to more than double between 2030-2040 even after the economy recovers.
4) Withdrawing troops from wars and eliminating Bush tax cuts would only address 15% of the long-term fiscal gap
The document discusses the growing fiscal challenges facing the U.S. government as seen through selected charts on debt levels:
1) The U.S. public debt as a percentage of GDP has exceeded 60% only during WWII, but is projected to rise substantially to 110% by 2020 and over 300% by 2040 under current policies.
2) In 2005, total U.S. government debt was comparable to other advanced economies, but is projected to be over 40% higher than the median for advanced economies by 2015 if reforms are not made.
3) For its first 200 years, the U.S. only accumulated debt during wars or recessions, but debt is now expected to skyrocket
This document outlines Coca-Cola's strategic vision and plans for 2020. It projects continued global economic growth, rising incomes, and 1 billion new consumers entering the global economy by 2020. This will drive increased consumption of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. Coca-Cola aims to more than double its system revenue over this period while expanding margins. Its 2020 business agenda focuses on maximizing cash flow, winning with Coca-Cola brands, accelerating innovation, and optimizing its franchise structure. Coca-Cola also outlines social commitments around sustainability, water stewardship, and promoting active healthy living.
This article about study of current situation of economy and pandemic impact on global economy. How long it will take to recover with the quote of GDP growth and Service PMI of key nations.
1. The document analyzes economic indicators and recovery efforts in various countries in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds signs of partial, uneven recovery as countries reopen and consumer spending increases but long-term impacts remain uncertain.
2. Purchasing Managers' Index data shows a sharper than expected recovery in many countries in May, though growth remains below pre-pandemic levels. Services sectors are recovering more slowly than others.
3. While stimulus measures have fueled initial rebounds, long-term recovery depends on resolving health uncertainties and restarting sectors like education and international travel that remain restricted. Full economic stability may not return until late 2021.
Global and-spanish economic perspectives Q3 2021 Quarterly Report December 2021JoseLuisSanz9
Global economic situation
The world economys recovery continues although its sustainability isn tassured in a context of pandemic outbreaks and uncertainty about its future evolution, disruptions in supply chains and inflationary pressures on raw materials and energy. The differing vaccination rates and the support policies applied in each country to lessen the pandemic s impact have deepened divergences in growth, mainly between advanced economies and low income countries.
A positive performance is expected in all world regions in 2021, although growth in sub Saharan Africa and the Middle East will be lower than in the rest of the regions. Inadequate access to vaccines and regional political instability are two of the causes of this worse performance.
Brazil has a large, diverse economy based around agriculture, mining, manufacturing and services. It is a major global producer and exporter of commodities like coffee, sugar, meat and soy. The economy has grown steadily in recent years due to prudent macroeconomic policies, but faces challenges in improving infrastructure and implementing economic reforms. Dubai has significantly increased its exports to Brazil in recent years across sectors such as metals, textiles and vehicles.
Carmen Reinhart presents on the challenges of high debt levels in advanced economies following the global financial crisis. Some key points:
1) Advanced economies continue to struggle with public and private debt overhangs, lower growth, high unemployment, and weak deleveraging since the crisis.
2) Financial repression, including directed lending to governments, interest rate caps, and tighter bank regulation, is re-emerging as a tool to reduce debt burdens following large debt accumulations.
3) Debt relief in past crises has occurred through economic growth, austerity, default/restructuring, inflation, or sustained financial repression combined with inflation - but these options are difficult for advanced economies currently facing high debt
Relatório Risco Credito Portugal (05/2012)João Pinto
Portugal has a population of 10.6 million and a GDP of 241.9 billion US dollars. The country experienced economic recession from 2009 to 2011 due to the impacts of austerity measures and slowing demand from Europe. Public and private debt levels are high at over 100% of GDP. While Portugal has strengths like its infrastructure and tourism industry, it also faces weaknesses such as low productivity, dependence on Europe, and weak government finances. Payments in Portugal are mainly done through bills of exchange, checks, and bank transfers, while debt collection can involve out of court settlement efforts or formal legal proceedings.
The economy of Japan is the third largest in the world. Japan has a highly skilled workforce and is a global leader in many industries such as automobiles, electronics, and manufacturing. The country has a well-developed transportation network including high-speed rail lines connecting major cities, over 100 domestic airports, and an extensive system of highways. Tokyo is the economic and financial center of Japan with the largest city GDP in Asia.
Ivo Pezzuto - "World Economy. Resilience or Great Reset" Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
The document discusses the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. It notes that while the pandemic will certainly leave lasting scars, it may also catalyze transformations like increased digitalization. The pandemic caused a historic contraction in the global economy as lockdowns halted activity. This has hit many companies and economies hard. There is uncertainty around how long the pandemic and its effects will last. The response from governments, central banks, and international organizations has involved massive stimulus measures to support public health and economic recovery. However, high global debt levels and risks to vulnerable emerging economies are major concerns going forward.
Prezentācija "Globālās ekonomikas tendences"Latvijas Banka
The document provides an overview of selected global economic trends and drivers behind them. It discusses that life today is better than ever before with fewer people living in extreme poverty, higher literacy rates, and decreased child mortality. It also notes that China's economic rise has been impressive as its GDP has grown significantly in recent decades, though this is partially due to China returning to its historic large share of global GDP. Globalization benefits the global middle class and very rich the most while the very poor and middle class in advanced economies have benefited less. Many feel left behind by globalization and economic changes, affecting political outcomes. Climate change also poses physical and transition risks to the economy and financial system.
Digital advertising continues to show strong growth across all channels. Search remains the primary driver of ROI, and as mobile and tablet traffic increases 400% annually, advertisers will increase their search investments across devices. This will lead search on devices to grow as quickly as social media, positively impacting global search spending growth.
The document provides a weekly update on the global oil and gas markets. It discusses how the upcoming US presidential election is unlikely to significantly impact near-term energy markets. Oil, gas, and equity markets continue looking past current economic weakness as demand recovers slower than expected. US natural gas prices have risen due to declining production and increasing demand from LNG exports and industry. Jet fuel demand remains weak as air travel has not recovered, impacting oil demand forecasts through 2021. The document also provides brief details on EY as an organization focused on the oil and gas sector.
The weekly market perspectives document provided an overview of the global financial markets and key economic indicators. It noted that Spain has yet to formally request external financial support and discussed the potential impact of such a request. It also summarized recent economic data from Europe, the US, and other regions that continued to point to ongoing recession pressures. The preview section outlined some of the major economic reports and events to watch in the coming week.
- Global stock markets traded sharply lower and bond yields fell to record lows amid risk-off sentiment ahead of key central bank meetings and the UK's Brexit referendum. Soft Chinese economic data also weighed on markets.
- Polls show continued momentum for the "Leave" campaign ahead of the June 23 UK vote on European Union membership. Recent Chinese data came in at multi-year lows or as expected.
- Several M&A deals were announced, including Symantec's $4.65B acquisition of Blue Coat and Bain Capital and KKR reportedly moving to the second round of bidding for Nissan's stake in Calsonic Kansai. Company updates and analyst meetings were also scheduled.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
Life Insurance in Venezuela, Key Trends and Opportunities to 2016ReportsnReports
The report provides an in-depth analysis of the life insurance market in Venezuela between 2007-2016. It finds that while life insurance accounted for the lowest share of the overall Venezuelan insurance industry in 2011, the segment grew at a 31.7% CAGR from 2007-2011 due to the introduction of mandatory funeral insurance and improvements in consumer purchasing power. Changes to the regulatory framework also supported growth. The report expects the life insurance segment in Venezuela to continue growing at a 25.7% CAGR through 2016, driven predominantly through agencies and insurance brokers. It provides historical data, market forecasts, and competitive analysis of the top life insurers in the country.
Latvijas Bankas Starptautisko attiecību un komunikācijas pārvaldes vadītāja Jura Kravaļa lekcija "Globālās ekonomikas tendences" Biznesa augstskolā "Turība" 2019. gada 8. oktobrī.
- The Covid-19 outbreak and collapse of the OPEC+ alliance have created a perfect storm in the oil markets, with both a reduction in demand due to the economic slowdown and a coming oversupply as Saudi Arabia and Russia increase production.
- Oil prices have collapsed to around $36 per barrel and could fall further, pressuring the budgets of oil producing countries who need higher prices. This will weaken the economies of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC members.
- The renewable energy sector may also see delays and slower growth as supply chains are disrupted and economic difficulties reduce investment and subsidies. Gas markets will remain oversupplied and depressed.
- The European Green Deal faces challenges
This forecast was done in a highly volatile environment and under assumptions that may not turn out to be true. We assume most of the economic activity restrictions to be lifted by the end of the second quarter. We expect substantial damage to the economy from domestic restrictions and lower external demand. A gradual recovery is expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than the pre-crisis level. We project real GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020. Consumer inflation is forecasted to accelerate only to 7.5% yoy in December as weak demand will limit the impact of higher inflation expectations and weaker hryvnia. We used UAH 28.7 per USD as an average 2020 exchange rate in forecast calculations.
The document discusses the growing fiscal challenges facing the U.S. government based on selected charts from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. It finds that absent reforms:
1) The U.S. public debt is projected to exceed 100% of GDP by 2020 and 300% by 2040, far surpassing levels seen since World War II.
2) U.S. debt levels will be over 40% higher than other advanced economies by 2015.
3) Federal budget deficits are projected to more than double between 2030-2040 even after the economy recovers.
4) Withdrawing troops from wars and eliminating Bush tax cuts would only address 15% of the long-term fiscal gap
The document discusses the growing fiscal challenges facing the U.S. government as seen through selected charts on debt levels:
1) The U.S. public debt as a percentage of GDP has exceeded 60% only during WWII, but is projected to rise substantially to 110% by 2020 and over 300% by 2040 under current policies.
2) In 2005, total U.S. government debt was comparable to other advanced economies, but is projected to be over 40% higher than the median for advanced economies by 2015 if reforms are not made.
3) For its first 200 years, the U.S. only accumulated debt during wars or recessions, but debt is now expected to skyrocket
Educational workshop presented by WealthTrust-Arizona and world-renowned guest Robert K. Smoldt, Chief Administrative Officer Emeritus at Mayo Clinic and Associate Director of Healthcare Delivery & Policy Programs at Arizona State University. Mr. Smoldt has been involved in health care administration for more than 30 years and is currently pursuing U.S. health reform in close partnership with Mayo Clinic’s Emeritus President and CEO.
Get the Highlights of the Heritage Plan in our quick, easy-to-read overview. Saving the American Dream comes to life in a simple, condensed, graphics-rich format, simply presenting how The Heritage Foundation proposes to reform Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, taxes, health insurance, and government spending. Published 2011.
09 federal deficits and the national debtNepDevWiki
The national debt is the total amount owed by the federal government to holders of government securities. It has more than tripled since 1980 as a result of accumulating budget deficits. Approximately 17% of the debt is held by foreign entities, representing a burden as it transfers purchasing power overseas. Crowding out occurs when government borrowing to finance deficits causes interest rates to rise, reducing private sector consumption and investment.
The document discusses the growing fiscal challenges facing the United States, including rising budget deficits and national debt levels. It notes that while near-term deficits are largely due to temporary factors like the recession and stimulus measures, long-term structural deficits pose a serious threat if left unaddressed. In particular, rising healthcare costs and spending on entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid are projected to account for an unsustainable portion of the federal budget going forward. Urgent action is needed to put the country's fiscal policies on a more sustainable path.
The document discusses the current economic situation in Argentina and the Province of La Rioja. It notes that the COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted Argentina's economy, leading to a large drop in GDP. This has deteriorated the national fiscal situation through reduced tax collection and increased spending on stimulus programs. High inflation, currency devaluation, and declining reserves are also issues. The economy of La Rioja is characterized by a large public sector, services, and reliance on revenue from the national government, which has decreased in recent years. The province has worked to control expenses but infrastructure is in poor condition and debt expenses are growing.
The document is a presentation by the Province of La Rioja providing an overview of the current economic situation in Argentina and the province. It notes that Argentina's economy has been seriously impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, with declines seen across various economic indicators. This has deteriorated the national fiscal situation through reduced tax collection and increased spending on stimulus programs. It also discusses the province's high reliance on income from the national government and its public sector-driven economy.
The Peter G. Peterson's State of the Union's Finances: A Citizen's Guide provides a comprehensive look at America's finances. The guide is broken out in the three sections 1.) Executive Summary 2.) Our Growing Fiscal Challenge 3.) Solutions
"Red" marketing for a Fidelity China fundsinocismblog
1) China has experienced a rapid growth in domestic consumption as incomes have risen significantly with the growth of a large urban middle class. Government policies have further stimulated domestic consumption.
2) Chinese consumers now account for a large share of global luxury good sales and this trend is expected to continue as more Chinese have disposable incomes to purchase luxury items.
3) The Fidelity China Consumer Fund provides an opportunity for investors to benefit from China's consumption boom through investing in companies involved in goods and services catering to Chinese consumers.
The document discusses the growing gap between government spending and revenue in the United States and the looming debt crisis this will cause. It notes that if current trends continue, debt will reach 146% of GDP by 2030, up from 62% today. Charts show spending growing much faster than revenue, with mandatory spending on programs like Medicare and Social Security being the main driver. The document argues that Washington's spending far exceeds what taxpayers can afford and that difficult decisions are needed to bring spending in line with historical averages.
KI a INESS v spolupráci s ďalšími partnermi organizovali medzinárodnú
konferenciu v rámci Free Market Road Show 2012 na tému Európa na ceste do
nevoľníctva?, ktorá sa konala dňa 27. apríla 2012 v Bratislave. Pozrite si
prezentáciu Daneila Mitchella. Viac informácií na
www.konzervativizmus.sk.
The macroeconomic outlook following the COVID-19 pandemic is gloomy, ranging between 3-10% in GDP decline for 2020. Recovery will depend heavily on how fast consumer confidence, employment and global trade can rebound. As a business leader, understanding how the macro outlook will impact your business is critical – especially if you are exposed to export markets.
In this short webinar, we will present the latest views on both global and Scandinavian macroeconomic outlooks, including scenarios to consider in the short, mid and long term, as well as a practical macro toolkit for evaluating your company’s exposure to key economic factors.
The document summarizes oversight challenges related to implementation of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and the long-term fiscal challenges facing the federal government. It notes that implementation of the Recovery Act requires transparency and accountability. It also discusses the growing federal budget deficits and debt over the long run due to rising healthcare and entitlement spending, and recommendations to address these challenges through continued oversight, budget controls, and public discussion.
Government spending has been steadily increasing over the past 40 years, even when adjusted for inflation and population growth. This rising government spending has caused economic growth and standards of living to slow down, with each successive decade seeing smaller gains. If current trends continue, future government spending will dramatically outpace GDP growth and cause the national debt to reach unsustainable levels, potentially limiting prosperity for future generations. Cutting government spending is necessary to increase economic growth and standards of living going forward.
The document summarizes recent trends in the US bond and stock markets, and discusses their implications. It notes the large and growing US budget deficits and debt levels, which are projected to exceed 100% of GDP. It also discusses concerns around failed government bond auctions, China reducing its Treasury holdings, and potential problems in the US housing market that could lead to another taxpayer bailout.
The document discusses the growing fiscal challenges facing the United States government at the federal, state, and local levels. It notes that mandatory spending programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are taking up an increasing share of the federal budget. It also highlights that total government debt in the US is higher than some financially troubled European countries. The document concludes by outlining steps that could be taken to address these fiscal issues, including entitlement and tax reforms, reducing healthcare costs, and reforming state and local pension systems.
The document discusses the need to make tough choices today to address defense spending and the growing fiscal gap facing the United States. It presents data from organizations like the Government Accountability Office and Congressional Budget Office showing that delaying action will require deeper spending cuts or higher tax increases in the future to close budget shortfalls. Charts show projections of growing public debt levels exceeding those of World War I and the Great Depression if no reforms are made.
The document summarizes the key points of consensus from experts and officials at the 2010 Fiscal Summit on America's fiscal challenges and potential solutions. There was general agreement that the US faces unsustainable long-term structural deficits, driven largely by rising healthcare costs, and that immediate action is needed to address the issues. Participants also agreed that reforming the healthcare system and tax code could help address the problems. While solutions will require bipartisan efforts, participants found the issues predictable and solvable if political will exists.
There is broad bipartisan consensus among former top US economic leaders that the country is on an unsustainable long-term fiscal path and faces another economic crisis without quick action. Both Democrats and Republicans agree that the government must address long-term structural deficits through both spending cuts and tax increases within the next 1-2 years. Failure to act will likely result in issues such as rising interest rates and a decline in the standard of living within 10 years.
This document outlines the agenda for an April 28, 2010 conference at the Ronald Reagan Building in Washington DC focused on fiscal challenges and solutions. The all-day event included opening remarks, panels on fiscal issues moderated by journalists, a keynote interview with former President Bill Clinton, and luncheon programs on health care reform and the views of federal reserve chairmen. The conference provided a forum for government officials and policy experts to discuss the country's budget problems and potential reforms.
The document lists the participants of the 2010 Fiscal Summit in order of participation. It includes prominent politicians, economists, journalists, and leaders of organizations focused on fiscal policy, budget, and economics. The summit aimed to discuss the growing national debt and federal budget challenges facing the United States government.
The Peter G. Peterson Foundation convened a bipartisan Fiscal Summit of leaders and experts to discuss the US's rising deficits and debt. Top speakers included President Bill Clinton, the co-chairs of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, and former Federal Reserve chairs. The Summit highlighted the urgent need to address the long-term structural deficit through bipartisan solutions that balance spending cuts and tax increases to protect social programs and economic stability.
A survey of over 50 top economic officials from the past 8 presidential administrations and Congress found broad bipartisan agreement that:
1) The US is on an unsustainable long-term fiscal path and failure to address structural deficits will likely lead to another economic crisis within 10 years.
2) Both spending cuts and tax increases are needed to solve the country's long-term deficit challenges.
3) The government should begin taking action within the next 1-2 years to address long-term fiscal issues through entitlement reform, overall spending cuts, and tax increases.
The document is a survey conducted between April 5-26, 2010 with 58 interviews that asked questions about fiscal issues in the United States. The survey found that:
1) Most Democrats (59%) and Republicans (85%) felt things in the country were headed on the wrong track.
2) Both Democrats (100%) and Republicans (100%) agreed the federal government was on an unsustainable long-term fiscal path.
3) Large majorities of both Democrats (82%) and Republicans (85%) were concerned about America's dependence on foreign lenders, and both parties were almost unanimously concerned about ensuring the solvency of programs like Medicare and Social Security.
The document summarizes Peter Peterson's opening remarks at the 2010 Fiscal Summit. He outlines three goals for the summit: reaching consensus on the magnitude of the fiscal challenge, potential solutions, and how to educate citizens. Peterson expresses concern over unsustainable long-term deficits and stresses the need to address the issue before a crisis occurs to preserve important social programs and America's leadership role in the world.
Pete Peterson welcomed attendees to the 2010 Fiscal Summit and emphasized the urgent need to address America's unsustainable fiscal policies and long-term structural deficits. He highlighted three main goals of the summit: 1) defining the fiscal challenge, 2) outlining solutions, and 3) educating the public. Peterson argued that without reform, interest costs and entitlement programs will consume all revenue within 12 years. He called for a bipartisan approach including both spending cuts and tax increases, and reforms to healthcare, Social Security, and the tax code. Peterson expressed hope that America could overcome this challenge through courage and commitment, as it had overcome greater deficits after World War II.
The speaker thanks participants in the fiscal summit and announces that several foundations will partner to conduct an unprecedented citizen engagement exercise on June 26th in 20 cities to discuss the federal fiscal challenge. Citizens will be provided information on reform options and asked to propose reform packages to achieve long-term fiscal objectives. The results will be valuable to policymakers and others. The speaker emphasizes that bridging partisan divides will be critical to turning ideas into bipartisan policy actions.
The document provides a summary of media coverage from various sources about the 2010 Fiscal Summit which aimed to address the growing US budget deficit and national debt. Articles discuss efforts to find a bipartisan agreement to both cut spending and raise taxes, as well as the need for action on the serious budget issues. Links are also included to video and radio coverage of the summit event.
The survey found:
1) There was unanimous bipartisan agreement among economic leaders that the current US fiscal path is unsustainable and long-term structural deficits threaten economic stability.
2) Majorities from both parties believe the government needs to take action within the next 1-2 years to address fiscal challenges or risk another major economic crisis.
3) Failure to enact deficit reforms could likely lead to rapid spending growth, higher interest rates, and a declining standard of living according to bipartisan majorities.
4) Both Republicans and Democrats agree solutions require both spending cuts and tax increases, with zero believing problems can be solved without spending reductions.
Town Hall Meeting, hosted by Congressman Jim Moran, Alexandria, VA July 28, 2008
Presented by:
David M. Walker, President and CEO, The Peter G. Peterson Foundation and Former Comptroller General of the United States
Madhya Pradesh, the "Heart of India," boasts a rich tapestry of culture and heritage, from ancient dynasties to modern developments. Explore its land records, historical landmarks, and vibrant traditions. From agricultural expanses to urban growth, Madhya Pradesh offers a unique blend of the ancient and modern.
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory FrameworksAny kyc Account
This presentation explores the pivotal role of KYC compliance in shaping and enforcing global regulations within the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies. Dive into the intricate connection between KYC practices and the evolving legal frameworks governing the crypto industry.
“Amidst Tempered Optimism” Main economic trends in May 2024 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On 12 June 2024 the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event “Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (May 2024)”.
During the event, the results of the 25-th monthly survey of business executives “Ukrainian Business during the war”, which was conducted in May 2024, were presented.
The field stage of the 25-th wave lasted from May 20 to May 31, 2024. In May, 532 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in May 2024 with April, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (May 2024), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
✅ More survey results in the presentation.
✅ Video presentation: https://youtu.be/4ZvsSKd1MzE
How to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete GuideDaniel
Cryptocurrency is digital money that operates independently of a central authority, utilizing cryptography for security. Unlike traditional currencies issued by governments (fiat currencies), cryptocurrencies are decentralized and typically operate on a technology called blockchain. Each cryptocurrency transaction is recorded on a public ledger, ensuring transparency and security.
Cryptocurrencies can be used for various purposes, including online purchases, investment opportunities, and as a means of transferring value globally without the need for intermediaries like banks.
Budgeting as a Control Tool in Government Accounting in Nigeria
Being a Paper Presented at the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) Budget Office Staff at Sojourner Hotel, GRA, Ikeja Lagos on Saturday 8th June, 2024.
Navigating Your Financial Future: Comprehensive Planning with Mike Baumannmikebaumannfinancial
Learn how financial planner Mike Baumann helps individuals and families articulate their financial aspirations and develop tailored plans. This presentation delves into budgeting, investment strategies, retirement planning, tax optimization, and the importance of ongoing plan adjustments.
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
3. Table of Contents
Section
Debt and Deficits I
Spending II
Revenues III
Health Care IV
Personal Finances V
4.
5. Section I: Debt and Deficits
Page
Debt held by the public:1800-2010 (percentage of GDP) 1
Debt held by the public: projections through 2080 under current policies (percentage of
GDP) 2
Composition of the total debt: debt held by the public and intragovernmental debt
(current dollars and percentage of GDP) 3
U.S. public debt including state and local debt (percentage of GDP): 1980-2020 4
U.S. public debt levels compared to other countries (percentage of GDP) 5
Historical deficits: 1800-2010 (percentage of GDP) 6
Deficits: projections through 2080 under current policies (percentage of GDP) 7
Impacts of alternative assumptions on projections of the long-term fiscal gap 8
Little impact on the projected gap between spending and revenues if tax cuts expire and
troops are withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan (percentage of GDP) 9
The projected, widening gap between spending and revenues (percentage of GDP) 10
Waiting to close the fiscal gap, by using spending cuts or tax increases alone, would lead
to more and more difficult choices in the future 11
Projected growth in spending by category compared with projected revenues through
2040 (percentage of GDP) 12
6. Section I: Debt and Deficits (continued)
Page
Projected growth in spending by category compared with projected revenues through
2040 if interest rates increase by 2 percent (percentage of GDP) 13
Historical Treasury interest rates 14
Impact on projected cost of net interest of a 2 percent increase in interest rates 15
Growth in U.S. dependency on foreign lenders to finance the public debt 16
Largest foreign holders of Treasury securities (February 2010) 17
Foreign purchases of Treasury securities by maturity 18
Historical and projected U.S. net external debt (percentage of GDP) 19
Growth in foreign purchases of Treasury Inflation Protect Securities 20
Fiscal Exposures (75-year present value in trillions of dollars) 21
7. Since 1800, U.S. debt held by public has exceeded 60% of
GDP only during World War II
120
WWII
100
Percentage of GDP
80
TARP &
Recession
60
Great
Depression
40 Civil War WWI
20
0
1800 1830 1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010
NOTE: Debt held by the public refers to all federal debt held by individuals, corporations, state or local governments, and foreign entities.
SOURCES: Data from the Congressional Budget Office, Long‐Term Budget Outlook: June 2009; the Government Accountability Office, The
Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook: January 2010 Update, alternative simulation using Congressional Budget Office
assumptions. Compiled by PGPF.
1-Debt and Deficits
8. Future U.S. debt held by the public is projected to soar if
current policies remain unchanged
1,400
1,197%
Actual Projected 896%
1,200
Percentage of GDP
652%
1,000
457%
800
303%
600
187%
60 %
400 of GDP 110%
200
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
NOTE: Debt held by the public refers to all federal debt held by individuals, corporations, state or local governments, and foreign entities.
SOURCES: Data from the Congressional Budget Office, Long‐Term Budget Outlook: June 2009; the Government Accountability Office, The
Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook, January 2010 Update, alternative simulation using Congressional Budget Office
assumptions. Compiled by PGPF.
2-Debt and Deficits
9. The total debt includes debt held by the public (domestic and foreign
investors) and debt the government owes to various government
programs*
14
$ 12.9 Trillion
12
Trillions of Dollars
Intragovernmental Debt
$4.5 (31%)
10 Debt Held by the Public
8 89 %
6 $ 5.6 Trillion of GDP
4 $2.2 (23%) $8.4 (58%)
57 %
2 $3.4 (35%) of GDP
0
2000 April 30, 2010
*Intragovernmental debt refers to Treasury securities held by federal trust funds (e.g., Social Security and Medicare) and other
government accounts. Debt held by the public refers to any federal debt held by individuals, corporations, state or local governments,
and foreign entities.
NOTE: Totals may not add due to rounding.
SOURCES: Data from the Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget: February 2010, Historical
Tables; and the Department of Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement (April 30, 2010). Compiled by PGPF.
3-Debt and Deficits
10. Within 10 years, the total public debt in the U.S. (including state
and local government held debt) is projected to reach Greece’s
current debt level
140
120
Percentage of GDP
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
NOTES: Projected state and local government debt was assumed to be held constant as a percent of the economy at the average of years
2000 to 2009 (14.4%). Public debt here refers to all federal debt held by individuals, corporations, state or local governments, and
foreign entities, in addition to state and local government debt.
SOURCES: Data from the Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States; the Government Accountability Office, The
Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook: January 2010 Update, alternative simulation using Congressional Budget Office
assumptions; and the Congressional Budget Office, Long‐Term Budget Outlook, June 2009. Compiled by PGPF.
4-Debt and Deficits
11. Public debt levels in the U.S are comparable to some of the
most financially troubled countries in Europe
2008 2009 2010
140
120
Percentage of GDP
100
80
60
40
20
0
Greece Italy Portugal Ireland Spain United United
Kingdom States
NOTE: All 2009 and 2010 numbers are projections. Public debt here refers to state and local governmental debt as well as debt held by
the public, or all federal debt held by individuals, corporations, state or local governments, and foreign entities.
SOURCE: International data from the International Monetary Fund. U.S. data from the Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds Accounts of the
United States; and the Office of Management and Budget, The 2011 Budget: Historical Tables. Compiled by PGPF.
5-Debt and Deficits
12. Up until the Great Depression, the U.S. experienced more
budget surpluses than deficits
35
WWII
Deficits (+) and Surpluses (‐)
30
as a Percentage of GDP
25 Great
Depression
20
WWI
15
Civil War
10
5
0
‐5
1800 1830 1860 1890 1920 1950 1980 2010
SOURCES: Data from the Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, Historical Tables, February
2010; the Government Accountability Office, The Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook: January 2010 Update, alternative
simulation using Congressional Budget Office assumptions; and the Historical Statistics of the United States, Millennial Edition Online,
Cambridge 2006. Compiled by PGPF.
6-Debt and Deficits
13. Under current policies, federal deficits are projected to more than
double as a percentage of GDP even after the economy recovers
80
Deficits (+) and Surpluses (‐)
Actual Projected
70 57%
as a Percentage of GDP
60 44%
50
33%
40
24% 74%
30
16%
20 10%
10
0
‐10
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
NOTE: Current policy estimates assume extension of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, alternative minimum tax (AMT) exemption amount is
indexed to inflation, Medicare physician payments are not reduced, and discretionary spending grows with GDP.
SOURCES: Data the Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, Historical Tables, February 2010;
and the Government Accountability Office, The Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook: January 2010 Update, alternative
simulation using Congressional Budget Office assumptions. Compiled by PGPF.
7-Debt and Deficits
14. Using alternative assumptions would affect projections of the
long-term fiscal gap
Alternative Alternative Alternative
Baseline Assumptions
Baseline and alternative Health Care Productivity Immigration
assumptions used in
projections of the fiscal gap:
10
Fiscal Gap as a Percentage of GDP
Excess health care cost 9
growth: Baseline Health
care costs per person 8
grow 2% faster than GDP 7
per capita; alternatives
are 1% and 0.5%. 6
5
Productivity: Baseline
output per hour increases 4
by 2.3% percent per year;
alternatives are 2.8% and 3
1.8% 1.0
2 1.8% 0.7
2.0% Mil. 1.3
1% 2.3% 2.8% Mil.
Immigration: Baseline is 1 0.5% Mil.
1 million immigrants per
year; alternatives are 1.3 0
million and 0.7 million. Excess Health Care Cost Productivity Growth Rate of Immigration
Growth
NOTE: The fiscal gap refers to the increase in taxes or reduction in non‐interest spending required to keep the debt‐to‐GDP ratio stable
over the next 75 years.
SOURCE: Data from the Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, Analytical Perspectives,
February 2010. Compiled by PGPF.
8-Debt and Deficits
15. Elimination of Bush tax cuts and withdrawal of troops from Iraq and
Afghanistan would have a small impact on the long-term fiscal gap
40
Historical Projected
Primary Spending 0.7% GDP
35 difference
(excluding net interest)
in 2080
30
Percentage of GDP
25
20 1.8% GDP
difference
15 Revenues in 2080
10 Primary Spending
Revenues
5 Tax cuts expire on schedule
End deployment to Iraq and Afghanistan
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
SOURCE: Data from the Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, Historical Tables, February
2010; the Government Accountability Office, The Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook: January 2010, alternative simulation
based on Congressional Budget Office assumptions; and the Congressional Budget Office, Budget Outlook: January 2010. Compiled by
PGPF.
9-Debt and Deficits
16. Over three quarters of the long-term budget gap in 2080 is caused by
escalating projected interest costs assuming the baseline interest rate
of 5.0%
100
90 Historical Projected
80 Total Spending
Percentage of GDP
70
60 Primary Spending Net Interest 74% of
(excluding net interest) 57% of
50 GDP
GDP
40
30
20
10 Revenues
0
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
SOURCES: Data from the Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, Historical Tables, February
2010; and the Government Accountability Office, The Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook: January 2010, alternative
simulation based on Congressional Budget Office assumptions. Compiled by PGPF.
10-Debt and Deficits
17. If we wait to close the fiscal gap, by using spending cuts or revenue
increases alone, we would face more and more difficult choices in the
future
35
Revenue Increase Spending Cuts
30
64%
25 Revenue
Percentage of GDP
50% 48% Increase
20 36 % Revenue Spending
Spending Increase Cuts
Cuts
15
10
5
0
2010 2030
NOTE: Spending refers to non-interest spending. The amounts shown are the non-interest spending cuts or revenue increases from the
projected levels required to close the projected fiscal gap by using only one or the other, not both. The fiscal gap refers to the reduction in
spending or increase in revenues required to keep debt-to-GDP no higher than the 2010 level in 2085.
SOURCE: Data from the Congressional Budget Office, Long-Term Budget Outlook, June 2009. Compiled by PGPF.
11-Debt and Deficits
18. Without reforms, within 12 years, future revenues will only cover
Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and interest on the debt assuming
the baseline interest rate of 5.0%
50
45
Discretionary
40 Spending
Revenue 9 %
Percentage of GDP
35
2 % Other Mandatory
30 9 %
Medicare &
25 2 % 11% Medicaid
9 %
20 9 % 9%
2 % 6% Social Security
15
4 % 6%
6%
10 5% Net Interest
5% 14%
5 5% 1% 9%
5%
0
2010 2020 2030 2040
SOURCE: Data from the Government Accountability Office The Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook: January 2010, alternative
simulation using Congressional Budget Office assumptions. Compiled by PGPF.
12-Debt and Deficits
19. Without fiscal reforms, federal interest costs alone would consume all
projected revenues by 2040 if baseline interest rates rise 2 percent to
7.0%. (The historical interest rate since 1980 is 6.4%.)
50
45 Discretionary
9 %
40 Spending
Revenue 2 %
Percentage of GDP
35 Other Mandatory
9 %
30 11% Medicare &
2 % Medicaid
25 9 %
9% 6% Social Security
20 9 % 2 %
15 4 % 6% 6%
10 5% 5% 20 % Net Interest
5 5% 12 %
2% 7 %
0
2010 2020 2030 2040
NOTE: The projections use implied CBO interest rates through 2020, and an interest rate of 5.0 percent thereafter. A 2 percent rate
increase would be within historic range for Treasury interest rates.
SOURCE: Data from the Government Accountability Office The Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook: January 2010, alternative
simulation using Congressional Budget Office assumptions. Compiled by PGPF.
13-Debt and Deficits
20. Current Treasury interest rates are low by historical standards
16
3‐ Month
14 10‐Year
12 30‐Year
Average
Interest Rate
10 Interest Rate:
6.5% over past
8 30 years
6
4
2
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Apr‐06
NOTE: The U.S. Treasury Department did not offer 30‐year bonds between 2003 and 2006.
SOURCE: Data from the Federal Reserve Statistical Release, Table H.15, Selected Interest Rates, Historical Data, accessed April 14, 2010.
Complied by PGPF.
14-Debt and Deficits
21. A rate increase of just two percent from baseline levels of 5.0
percent have a dramatic effect on interest costs
25
Additional Interest from
20 Rate Increase from 5.0% to
7.0%
Percentage of GDP
5.7%
Baseline Net Interest
of
15 GDP
10 14.1%
of
GDP
5
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
NOTE: The projections use implied CBO interest rates through 2020, and an interest rate of 5.0 percent thereafter.
SOURCE: Data from the Government Accountability Office The Federal Government’s Long‐term Fiscal Outlook: January 2010, alternative
simulation using Congressional Budget Office assumptions. Compiled by PGPF.
15-Debt and Deficits
22. U.S. dependency on foreign lenders to finance the public debt has
risen sharply
1970 1990 2010 est.
Total Debt: $283 billion Total Debt: $2,412 billion Total Debt: $8,387 billion
Foreign Holdings: Foreign Holdings:
Foreign Holdings: 19% 47%
5%
NOTE: 2010 data reflects debt levels through February 2010.
SOURCES: Data for 1970 and 1990 from the Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, Analytical
Perspectives, February 2010. Data for 2010 from Department of Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement (February 26, 2010) and Treasury
International Capital Reporting System, April 15, 2010 release. Compiled by PGPF.
16-Debt and Deficits
23. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities are concentrated among
a few countries
Total Foreign
February 2010 Holdings: 47%
Holdings Holdings
(in billions of (as a percent of
Country U.S. dollars) total U.S. debt)
China $877.5 11%
Japan $768.5 10%
United Kingdom $233.5 3%
Oil Exporters $218.8 3%
Brazil $170.8 2%
All other countries $1,483.1 19%
NOTE: U.S. debt here refers to debt held by the public, or all federal debt held by individuals, corporations, state or local governments,
and foreign entities. All numbers reflect debt levels as of December 2009.
SOURCES: Data from the United States Treasury, Treasury International Capital System, Major Holders of Treasury Securities, April 30,
2010. U.S. debt is debt held by the public, U.S. Treasury, Debt to the Penny, February 26, 2010. Compiled by PGPF.
17-Debt and Deficits
24. Foreign purchases of marketable Treasury securities are
overwhelmingly in shorter maturities, indicating sizeable interest-rate
risk upon rollover
1,200
Billions of Constant 2009 Dollars
30 years 10 Years
1,000
2‐7 Years 1 year or less
800 635
600
400 340
451
200
104 5 182 22 33
0 46 8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
NOTE: Purchases reflect gross foreign purchases of bills (4‐week, 13‐week, 26‐week, 52‐week, and cash‐management bills); notes (2‐
year, 3‐year, 5‐year, 7‐year, and 10‐year) and bonds (30‐year). Data excludes sales of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), and
also is not net of sales.
SOURCE: Data from the U.S. Treasury, Office of Debt Management, Investor Class Auction Allotments. Compiled by PGPF.
18-Debt and Deficits
25. By itself, the U.S. net external debt projection is unsustainable under
baseline assumptions and worse if fiscal conditions erode
160
Actual Projected
140 133%
120 “The projected path is so
Cline Baseline Projection unsustainable and
Percentage of GDP
100 dangerous that a crisis
80 Cline Fiscal Erosion would virtually be certain to
64%
Scenario
60 occur long before the U.S.
Historical Data
reached such a painful
40 point of reckoning.”
20
William Cline,
0
Peterson Institute for
‐20 International Economics
‐40
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
NOTE: Displays U.S. net international investment position: a positive number means external
liabilities are greater than external assets.
SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis and William Cline, “Long‐term Fiscal Imbalances, U.S.
External Liabilities, and Future Living Standards,” in C. Fred Bergsten, ed., The Long‐term
International Economic Position of the United States, Peterson Institute for International
Economics, 2009. Compiled by PGPF.
19-Debt and Deficits
26. Growth in purchases by foreign investors of Treasury Inflation
Protected Securities (TIPS) reflect concern about U.S. inflation
outlook
35
Billions of Constant 2009 Dollars
30
25 190%
$29.2 billion
increase Or 6.4% of foreign
20 purchases of long-term
Treasury securities
15
10
$10.1 billion
Or 5.1% of foreign
5 purchases of long-term
Treasury securities
0
2000‐2004 2005‐2009
NOTES: Purchases only reflect gross foreign purchases (they exclude gross sales of TIPS by foreign investors). Data reflects TIPS with
maturities of 5, 10, 20 and 30 years; and total long‐term Treasury security purchases reflect securities with maturities of 5‐7, 10, and 30
years. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities were first offered in 1997.
SOURCE: Data from the U.S. Treasury, Office of Debt Management, Investor Class Auction Allotments. Compiled by PGPF.
20-Debt and Deficits
27. Major Fiscal Exposures: Another measure of the federal
government’s fiscal condition
In Trillions of Dollars
2000 2009
Explicit liabilities $6.9 $14.1
Publicly held debt 3.4 7.6
Military & civilian pensions & retiree health 2.8 5.3
Other Major Fiscal Exposures 0.7 1.3
Commitments & contingencies 0.5 2.0
E.g., Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, undelivered orders
Social insurance promises 13.0 45.8
Future Social Security benefits 3.8 7.7
Future Medicare benefits 9.2 38.2
Future Medicare Part A benefits 2.7 13.8
Future Medicare Part B benefits 6.5 17.2
Future Medicare Part D benefits -- 7.2
Total $20.4 $61.9
NOTE: Numbers may not add due to rounding. Estimates for Medicare and Social Security benefits are from the Social Security and Medicare Trustees
reports, which are as of January 1, 2009 and show social insurance promises for the next 75 years. Future liabilities are discounted to present value
based on a real interest rate of 2.9% and CPI growth of 2.8%. The totals do not include liabilities on the balance sheets of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and
the Federal Reserve. Assets of the U.S. government not included. Does not include civil service and military retirement funds, unemployment insurance
and debt held by other government accounts outside of Social Security and Medicare.
SOURCE: Data from the Department of Treasury, 2009 Financial Report of the United States Government. Compiled by PGPF.
21-Debt and Deficits
28.
29. Section II: Spending
Page
Federal spending: 1900‐2080 (percentage of GDP) 1
Composition of federal spending: 1970, 2010 (est.), and 2040 (est.) 2
Composition of federal spending in 2010 (excluding stimulus package) 3
Historical spending for R&D: 1965‐2009 (percent of total spending) 4
International comparison of countries with highest military expenditure in 5
2008
Historical spending growth by major category: 1950‐2010 (percentage of 6
GDP)
Timeline of when projected net interest costs will exceed areas of spending 7
and revenue
Projected growth in Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security: 2010‐2080 8
(percentage of GDP)
Contributing factors in projected growth for Medicare, Medicaid and Social 9
Security: 2010‐2080 (percentage of GDP)
Historical Social Security trust fund cash flows: 1936‐2009 (percentage of 10
GDP)
30. Section II: Spending(continued)
Page
Projected Social Security trust fund cash flows: 1970‐2080 (percentage of GDP) 11
Impacts of raising taxable maximum income for payroll taxes on Social Security 12
trust fund cash flows: 2010‐2080 (percentage of GDP)
Impacts of balancing Social Security benefits and receipts on the long term fiscal 13
gap: 1990‐2080 (percentage of GDP)
31. Federal spending is projected to soar far above its 50-year
average of 20.5 percent of GDP if current policies remain
unchanged
100
Historical Projected
90
80
Percentage of GDP
70 62%
60
50 42% 2080
40 92% of
28 % GDP
30
20
10
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
SOURCES: Data from the Historical Statistics of the United States, Millennial Edition Online, Cambridge 2006, the Office of
Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, Historical Tables, February 2010, and the Government
Accountability Office, The Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook, January 2010 Update, alternative simulation using
Congressional Budget Office assumptions. Compiled by PGPF.
1-Spending
32. Mandatory programs − including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid
and other entitlement programs − and interest costs are taking over
more and more of the federal budget
Total Total Total
Mandatory Net Interest Mandatory Net Mandatory
38% 7% 62% Interest 82%
5%
Discretionary
18%
Mandatory
Net Interest
Programs Discretionary
Mandatory 35%
31% Discretionary 38%
62% Programs
Mandatory
57%
Programs
47%
Total Spending 1970: Total Spending 2010: Total Spending 2040:
$900 Billion $3.5 Trillion (est.) $12.3 Trillion (est.)
(Constant 2009 Dollars) (Constant 2009 Dollars) (Constant 2009 Dollars)
SOURCES: Data derived from the Office of Management and Budget, FY 2011 Budget, Historical Tables, February 2010; and the
Government Accountability Office, The Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook, January 2010 Update, alternative simulation
using Congressional Budget Office assumptions. Calculated by PGPF.
2-Spending
33. Nondefense discretionary includes many programs that could
promote future economic growth
2010 (est.)
Net Interest
6% Defense Education
19% 4%
Transportation
3%
Health* 2%
Other
20%
Mandatory All Other Programs
55% 11%
NOTES: *Discretionary health programs include National Institutes of Health, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, & Indian Health Service.
Spending excludes the 2009 Stimulus package and emergency funding for activities in Iraq and Afghanistan. R&D investment spending over the last
decade has been about 3.1% of GDP, or 15% of the budget, and makes up a large part of non‐defense discretionary spending.
SOURCE: Data from the Congressional Budget Office The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020, January 2010. Compiled by PGPF.
3-Spending
34. Growth in entitlements has already crowded out important investments
such as federal spending for R&D, which has dropped by more than
half as a percent of total spending since the late 1960s
35
As a Percentage of Total Spending
30
25 52% decrease
since late 60s
20
15
10
5
0
1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
NOTE: Research and development includes spending in major public physical capital, education and training. The top sources of
allocations of R&D in the U.S. are Defense systems development, the National Institutes of Health (NIH), education, transportation,
NASA, Nuclear Security Administration (NSA), National Science Foundation (NSF),the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
(DARPA), and the Air Force, Army, and Navy.
SOURCE: Data from the Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, Historical Tables, February
2010. Compiled by PGPF.
4-Spending
35. U.S. spending on defense exceeds the next largest fourteen defense
budgets combined in 2008
700
$581 billion Australia $607 billion
600
Spain
Canada
500 Brazil
In billions of dollars
India
Saudi Arabia South Korea
400 Italy U.S.A.
Japan
300 Germany
Russia
200
UK
100 France
China
0
SOURCE: Data from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 15 Major Spender Countries in 2008. Compiled by PGPF.
5-Spending
36. Growth in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid have more
than offset declines in defense since the late 1960s
30
25
Percentage of GDP
20 Net Interest
15 All Other Programs
10 Medicare & Medicaid
Social Security
5
Defense
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SOURCE: Data from the Office of Management and Budget, FY 2011 Budget, Historical Tables, February 2010. Compiled by PGPF.
6-Spending
37. Unless current polices change, net interest costs are projected
to exceed total federal revenues in 2046
Projected net interest will exceed….. In year
Medicaid spending, 1.7% of GDP 2012
Defense spending, 3.6% of GDP* 2017
Medicare spending, 3.9% of GDP 2018
Social Security, 5.4% of GDP 2022
Total Revenues, 18.1% of GDP 2046
*Assumes that troops in Iraq and Afghanistan would be reduced to only 60,000 troops by 2015, and that projected defense
spending would grow at the same rate as GDP thereafter.
NOTE: Net Interest already exceeds most federal budget functions including Science, Space and Technology (250),
Transportation (400), and Education (500). The projections use implied CBO interest rates through 2020, and an interest
rate of 5.0 percent thereafter. If interest rates rise, projected interest costs will exceed projected program costs earlier.
SOURCES: Data from the Congressional Budget Office, Analysis of the President’s Budget: March 2010 and Government
Accountability Office The Federal Government's Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook: January 2010 Update. Compiled by PGPF.
7-Spending
38. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the three largest
entitlement programs, are projected to more than double as a
percentage of GDP under current policies
30%
25%
4 %
Percentage of GDP
of GDP
20%
Medicaid
15% 14% 24 %
2% of GDP of GDP
Medicare of
10% GDP
3% of GDP
5% 6%
5% of GDP Social Security of GDP
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Fiscal Year
SOURCE: Data from the Government Accountability Office, The Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook: January 2010 Update,
alternative simulation using Congressional Budget Office Assumptions. Compiled by PGPF.
8-Spending
39. Aging drives most of the projected cost growth in Social Security,
Medicare and Medicaid until 2054. After that year, excess cost growth of
health spending takes over as the leading driver of cost growth.
25
Sources of Projected Growth in Social Security,
Medicare and Medicaid as Percentage of GDP
2054
20 8 %
Effect of Excess Health
of GDP
Care Cost Growth
15 4.8%
6%
Effect of Aging
4.8% of GDP
10
In the Absence of
5 Aging and Excess
9%
Health Care Cost 8.9%
Growth
of GDP
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Fiscal Year
NOTE: “Excess health care cost growth” is the amount growth in age‐ adjusted health care costs per person exceeds the growth in per
capita GDP.
SOURCE: Data from the Congressional Budget Office, The Long‐Term Budget Outlook, June 2009. Compiled by PGPF.
9-Spending
40. Since its inception, the Social Security program has experienced more
surpluses than deficits
1.0
Social Security Cash Surpluses (+) and
Deficits (‐) as a Percentage of GDP
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
‐0.2
‐0.4
1936 1945 1954 1963 1972 1981 1990 1999 2008
NOTE: Excludes interest earnings.
SOURCE: Data from the Office of Management and Budget, FY 2011 Budget, Historical Tables, February 2010. Compiled by PGPF.
10-Spending
41. In the future, persistent cash deficits are projected for Social Security
1.5 2000 Social Security Surplus
0.9 % of GDP ($114 Billion*)
Social Security Surpluses /Deficits In Percent of GDP
1 2040 Social Security Deficit
2080 Deficit
1.3 % of GDP ($342 Billion*) 1.4% of
GDP
0.5 ($700
Billion*)
0
‐0.5
‐1
‐1.5
‐2
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
* In 2009 Dollars.
NOTE: CBO projections show negative cash deficits in 2010 and 2011. Excludes interest earnings.
SOURCE: Data from the Social Security Administration, Provisions Affecting Payroll Tax Rates: 2009. Compiled by PGPF.
11-Spending
42. Raising the taxable maximum wage level subject to payroll
taxes would somewhat increase Social Security cash receipts
and reduce projected deficits
1.0
Social Security Surpluses and Deficits In
Savings when raising the
taxable maximum wage level
0.5
Percent of GDP
0.0
‐0.5
‐1.0
15%
decrease
‐1.5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
NOTE: : Assumes that wage cap for payroll taxes will be raised to include 90 percent of total covered earnings, from $106,800 to
$181,500 in 2010. More recent projections show negative cash deficits in 2010 and 2011.
SOURCE: Data from the Social Security Administration, Provisions Affecting Payroll Tax Rates: 2009. Compiled by PGPF.
12-Spending
43. Balancing Social Security benefits and receipts would have a small
impact on the long term fiscal gap
40
Historical Projected
Primary Spending 1.3% of
35 GDP
(excluding net interest)
Change
30
Percentage of GDP
15.6%
25 of GDP
Gap
20
15
Revenues
10 Primary Spending
5 Revenues
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
NOTE: Balancing Social Security is defined as having Social Security benefit payments no higher than Social Security payroll tax receipts.
SOURCE: Data from the Government Accountability Office, The Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook: January 2010; CBO
Analysis of America’s Future Act of 2010. Compiled by PGPF.
13-Spending
44.
45. Section III: Revenues
Page
Composition of revenues: 2010 1
Composition of revenues: 1935‐2020 (percentage of GDP) 2
Federal revenues: 1970‐2030 (percentage of GDP) 3
Impact on the projected deficit of restoring pre‐2001 tax rates (percentage of GDP) 4
Impact on projected federal revenues of extending 2001 and 2003 tax cuts (percentage of GDP) 5
Top 5 most expensive tax expenditures 6
Top 5 corporate tax expenditures 7
Relative size of the top 5 tax expenditures to large spending areas 8
Median household income tax rates by quintile (percentage of total income) 9
Median individual income tax rates by quintile (percentage of total income) 10
46. Section III: Revenues (continued)
Page
Share of pre‐tax income and total federal taxes by quintile 11
Share of pre‐tax income for high and low income households 12
International comparison of tax burdens 13
47. Individual income and payroll taxes comprise most of federal
receipts
2010: Total Revenues
$2,177 billion
Corporate Income Excise
Taxes 3%
7% Payroll Taxes 40%
Estate and Gift 1%
Other Customs Duties 1%
9%
Miscellaneous
Individual Income 4%
Taxes
43%
SOURCE: Data from the Congressional Budget Office, Preliminary Analysis of the President’s Budget, March 2010. Compiled by PGPF.
1-Revenues
48. The composition of federal revenues has been relatively constant
since the mid-1970s
25 Current Law
Actual
Projection*
20 1%
Percentage of GDP
2%
Other Receipts
15
Corporate 6%
Income Taxes
10 Social Insurance Taxes
5 11%
Individual Income Taxes
0
1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
* The “Current Law Projection” assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts expire as scheduled.
SOURCES: Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, Historical Tables, February 2010, and
Congressional Budget Office, Analysis of the President’s Budgetary Proposals for FY 2011, March 2010. Compiled by PGPF.
2-Revenues
49. Since 1970, federal revenues have averaged 18 percent of
GDP and will return to about that level if the 2001 and 2003 tax
cuts are extended
22
Actual GAO Projected*
20 40‐Year Average
Percentage of GDP
18
16
14
0
12
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
*Projections assume the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are extended and the alternative minimum tax (AMT) exemption amount is adjusted to
inflation.
SOURCES: Data from the Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, Historical Tables, February
2010, and the Government Accountability Office, The Federal Government’s Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook: January 2010 Update. Compiled by
PGPF.
3-Revenues
50. Restoring pre-2001 tax rates on households earning over
$250,000 will have a small impact on projected deficits.
6
5
Percentage of GDP
4
OMB Baseline Deficit
3
5.1% 5.5%
5.1%
4.7% Deficit if Upper‐Income Tax
2 3.9%
3.4% Provisions in FY11 Budget
are Implemented *
1 Deficit if 2001 and 2003
Tax Cuts to Expire for
0 Everyone
2015 2020
SOURCE: Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, February 2010.
* Includes expanding/reinstating income tax rates, reinstating the personal exemption phase‐out and limitation on itemized
deductions, and imposing a 20 percent tax rate on capital gains and dividends for taxpayers with income over $250,000 (married) and
$200,000 (single).
4-Revenues
51. Extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts would reduce federal
revenues by $2.7 trillion between 2011 and 2020
5,000
4,500
4,000
Billions of Dollars
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Revenues Under Current Law Baseline Revenues with Tax Cuts *
SOURCE: Data from the Congressional Budget Office, Analysis of the President’s Budget: March 2010 and The Budget and Economic
Outlook, January 2010. Compiled by PGPF.
* Includes interactive effects of extending the tax cuts (EGTRRA and JGTRRA) and indexing the AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax)
5-Revenues
52. Tax expenditures, deductions, credits, and other special provisions
total an estimated $1 trillion annually and provide substantial benefits
that are not counted in the budget
Tax Revenue Lost
Top 5 Tax Expenditures
(FY2010)
1. Exclusion of employer provided health insurance from taxable
$262 billion
income.*
2. Exclusion of pension contributions and earnings.** $122 billion
3. Deduction of mortgage‐interest on a primary residence. $92 billion
4. Deduction of non‐business state and local taxes (includes
$53 billion
income, property and sales taxes)
5. Capital gains (except agriculture, timber, iron ore, and coal).*** $45 billion
Total of Top 5 $573 billion
* Includes the exclusion from payroll taxes and income taxes.
** Includes employer pension plans, employee and employer contributions to 401k plans, IRAs, and Keough plans.
*** In addition, the biodiesel producer tax credit results in a $200 million reduction in excise tax receipts in 2010.
NOTE: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
SOURCE: Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, Analytic Perspectives, February 2010.
6-Revenues
53. The top 5 corporate tax expenditures, deductions, credits and other
special provisions are relatively small compared to the largest tax
expenditures
Tax Revenue Lost
Top 5 Corporate Tax Expenditures
(FY2010)
1. Deferral of income from controlled foreign corporations $31 billion
2. Deduction for U.S. production activities $8.8 billion
3. Credit for increasing research activities $5.8 billion
4. Deferred taxes for financial firms on certain income earned
$5.5 billion
overseas
5. Credit for low‐income housing investments $ 5.4 billion
Total of Top 5 $56.4 billion
NOTE: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
SOURCE: Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, Analytic Perspectives, February 2010.
7-Revenues
54. The value of the five largest tax expenditures is sizeable
relative to major spending programs in 2010
$800
$700
Billions of Dollars
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
Top 5 Tax Medicare Social Security Defense
Expenditures
NOTE: Health Insurance, Retirement Saving, Mortgage Interest, and State & Local taxes are categories of spending that reduce taxable
income.
SOURCE: Data from the Office of Management and Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: The 2011 Budget, Analytic Perspectives, February
2010.
8-Revenues
55. The U.S. tax system has progressive attributes: effective
median tax rates rise with income (households by income
quintile in 2010)
30
25 27.9%
Percent of Income
20 22.2%
18.7%
15
15.5%
10
5 7.9%
1.3%
0
Lowest Second Middle Fourth Top Top 1%
Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile $532,500+
Less than $17,800‐ $34,800‐ $63,400‐ $104,200+
$17,800 $34,800 $63,400 $104,200
NOTE: Effective federal tax rate is calculated as total federal taxes paid divided by cash income. Federal taxes include individual and
corporate income tax, and payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare.
SOURCE: Data from the Tax Policy Center. Compiled by PGPF.
9-Revenues
56. Effective median individual income tax rates are negative or
zero for households with incomes below $34,800
20 18.8%
Percentage of Total Income
15
10.8%
10
6.4%
5 3.2%
0%
0
‐5
‐4.2%
‐10
Lowest Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile Top Quintile Top 1%
<$17,800 $17,800‐ $34,800‐ $63,400‐ $104,200+ $532,500+
$34,800 $63,400 $104,200
SOURCE: Data from the Tax Policy Center. Compiled by PGPF.
10-Revenues
57. High-income households earn a disproportionate share of pre-tax
income and pay a disproportionate share of total federal taxes
100 Top 0.5%
(15% ) Top 0.5%
90 (23% )
80
70 55% Top Quintile
69% $67,400+
60
Percent
Fourth Quintile
50 $45,200‐$67,399
40
20% Middle Quintile
30 $30,500‐$45,199
20 17%
13% Second Quintile
$17,900‐$30,499
10 8% 9% 4%
1% Lowest Quintile
0 4% Less than$17,900
Share of Total Pre‐Tax Income Share of Total Federal Taxes
NOTE: Data for 2005 in 2005 dollars.
SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office, Historical Effective Tax Rates: 1979‐ 2005: Additional Data on Sources of Income and High‐Income
Households December 2008. Compiled by PGPF.
11-Revenues
58. The share of total pre-tax income has increased for the wealthy but
decreased for low income households since 1980
16
14.6 %
Percentage of Total Pre‐Tax Income
14
Top 0.5%
12
Lowest Quintile
10
8
6.6 %
6 5.7 %
4.0 %
4
2
0
1980 2005
SOURCE: Data from Congressional Budget Office, Historical Effective Tax Rates, 1979 to 2005: Additional Data on Sources of Income and
High‐Income Households, December 2008. Compiled by PGPF.
12-Revenues
59. Total tax burdens are lower in the U.S. than many other industrial
countries
60
50
as a Percentage of GDP
48%
Total Tax Revenue
40 43%
30 36%
33%
28%
20
18%
10
0
Sweden France OECD ‐ Total Canada Mexico United
States
NOTE: Data for each country is as of 2007. OECD is the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development. Total tax revenue
includes federal, state and local.
SOURCE: Data from OECD Statistics Extract. Compiled by PGPF.
13-Revenues
60.
61. Section IV: Health Care
Page
Federal health expenditures: 1960‐2040 (as percentage of GDP) 1
Growth in health care consumption per capita: 1990‐2030 (constant 2009 dollars) 2
Projected health care costs per capita: 2010‐2080 (constant 2009 dollars) 3
International comparison of health care costs (as percentage of GDP) 4
International comparison of health care costs per capita (U.S. dollars) 5
Selected US health outcomes ranked against other nations 6
International comparison of CT scanners per capita 7
International comparison of MRI units per capita 8
International comparison of angioplasty per 1,000 people 9
International comparison of coronary bypass operations per 1,000 people 10
Growth in U.S. population (65 and older) by age group 11
Comparison of U.S. health care costs per person by age group 12
62. Section IV: Health Care (continued)
Page
Composition of health care coverage, pre and post enactment of health care reform law 13
Comparison across U.S. states of Medicare costs per person 14
Portion of Medicare spending that go towards services in the last year of life 15
Comparison across U.S. states of number of visits to specialist by Medicare beneficiaries
in last two years of life 16
63. U.S. health expenditures are projected to soar to more than
one-third of the economy by 2040
40
Actual Projected
35 34 %
30 29 %
Percentage of GDP
25 22 %
20 17 %
15 13 %
12 %
10 8 %
7 %
5 %
5
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
SOURCE: Data from the Congressional Budget Office, The Long‐Term Fiscal Outlook: June 2009. Compiled by PGPF.
1- Health Care