The weekly market perspectives document provided an overview of the global financial markets and key economic indicators. It noted that Spain has yet to formally request external financial support and discussed the potential impact of such a request. It also summarized recent economic data from Europe, the US, and other regions that continued to point to ongoing recession pressures. The preview section outlined some of the major economic reports and events to watch in the coming week.
Policy responses to the global economic crisis: Too little, too late?Latvijas Banka
Presentation by Andrew Bosomworth, Managing Director, PIMCO, at the Bank of Latvia conference "Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?"
Riga, November 2, 2012.
Economic adjustment in the euro area and the experience of the BalticsLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Hans-Joachim Klöckers, Deputy Director General Economics, European Central Bank at the Bank of Latvia conference "Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?"
Riga, November 2, 2012.
Finland – Macedonia Business Seminar, Wednesday, June 6, 2012
The Business Seminar was organized on the occasion of the visit to Finland of H.E. Mr. Nikola Gruevski, Prime Minister, President of the Government of the Republic of Macedonia. Presentation by Vladimir Peshevski.
Policy responses to the global economic crisis: Too little, too late?Latvijas Banka
Presentation by Andrew Bosomworth, Managing Director, PIMCO, at the Bank of Latvia conference "Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?"
Riga, November 2, 2012.
Economic adjustment in the euro area and the experience of the BalticsLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Hans-Joachim Klöckers, Deputy Director General Economics, European Central Bank at the Bank of Latvia conference "Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?"
Riga, November 2, 2012.
Finland – Macedonia Business Seminar, Wednesday, June 6, 2012
The Business Seminar was organized on the occasion of the visit to Finland of H.E. Mr. Nikola Gruevski, Prime Minister, President of the Government of the Republic of Macedonia. Presentation by Vladimir Peshevski.
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment GapAshutosh Bhargava
The debate between former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has rekindled interest on the topic of "Global Savings Glut". This article gives some interesting insights about the evolution of household savings in India and the way forward.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
Venezuela is undergoing one of the worst economic losses ever registered by any country in a three-year period, either by Latin American or world standards. Poverty rates have skyrocketed and stand today beyond 80%. We define two landmarks for recovery, and revise how much would Venezuela need to grow - oil and non-oil sectors - and how likely are those rates from the Venezuela and the world´s experience. We end up by outlining some of the adaptive challenges Venezuela would need to tackle to engine a sustainable recovery.
The WESP mid-2011 update highlights that the recovery of the global economy remains intact but uneven, with strong output growth in developing countries and a weaker economic performance in developed countries. At the same time, new headwinds have emerged, such as upward pressure on inflation rates due to higher energy and food prices and continued appreciation pressure on emerging market currencies.
KI a INESS v spolupráci s ďalšími partnermi organizovali medzinárodnú
konferenciu v rámci Free Market Road Show 2012 na tému Európa na ceste do
nevoľníctva?, ktorá sa konala dňa 27. apríla 2012 v Bratislave. Pozrite si
prezentáciu Daneila Mitchella. Viac informácií na
www.konzervativizmus.sk.
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment GapAshutosh Bhargava
The debate between former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has rekindled interest on the topic of "Global Savings Glut". This article gives some interesting insights about the evolution of household savings in India and the way forward.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
Venezuela is undergoing one of the worst economic losses ever registered by any country in a three-year period, either by Latin American or world standards. Poverty rates have skyrocketed and stand today beyond 80%. We define two landmarks for recovery, and revise how much would Venezuela need to grow - oil and non-oil sectors - and how likely are those rates from the Venezuela and the world´s experience. We end up by outlining some of the adaptive challenges Venezuela would need to tackle to engine a sustainable recovery.
The WESP mid-2011 update highlights that the recovery of the global economy remains intact but uneven, with strong output growth in developing countries and a weaker economic performance in developed countries. At the same time, new headwinds have emerged, such as upward pressure on inflation rates due to higher energy and food prices and continued appreciation pressure on emerging market currencies.
KI a INESS v spolupráci s ďalšími partnermi organizovali medzinárodnú
konferenciu v rámci Free Market Road Show 2012 na tému Európa na ceste do
nevoľníctva?, ktorá sa konala dňa 27. apríla 2012 v Bratislave. Pozrite si
prezentáciu Daneila Mitchella. Viac informácií na
www.konzervativizmus.sk.
Why Latvia succeeded and Southern Europe failedLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Dr. Anders Åslund, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics (USA) at Bank of Latvia conference ""Economic Adjustment under Sovereign Debt Crisis: Can Experience of the Baltics Be Applied to Others?
Riga, November 2, 2012.
Robert Chote: Public finances and health careThe King's Fund
Robert Chote, Chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), shares the results of the OBR’s 2012 Fiscal Sustainability report, with a specific focus on health care spending.
Fiscal consolidation in the midst of the crisis: lessons from LatviaLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Gabriele Giudice, Ingrid Toming, Francesco Di Comite and Julia Lendvai (DG ECFIN) at Country workshop: "EU Balance-of-Payments assistance for Latvia: Foundations of Success" organized by the European Commission, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, and the Bank of Latvia.
Brussels, March 1, 2012
2015: Real GDP growth of 0.8%
• The downward revision of Q4-2014 real GDP growth rate to -0.4% QoQ minimized the momentum of the Greek economy, drastically reducing the carry – over effect to just 0.1% forcing us to revise our forecast for real GDP growth rate to a range of 0.5% to 1.0% noting a median value of 0.8%
• Despite worries we believe that tourism will accelerate further in 2015 continuing to support the Greek economy
• EU funding: we expect EU funding to decelerate in 2015
• An upside risk on our estimates depends on the outcome of the negotiations between the new government and our EU partners.
Vanguard’s 2015 economic and investment outlookJoão Pinto
To treat the future with the deference it deserves, Vanguard believes that market forecasts are best viewed in a probabilistic framework.
This publication’s primary objectives are to describe the projected long-term return distributions that contribute to strategic asset allocation decisions and to present the rationale for the ranges and probabilities of potential outcomes.
Dealing With Divergences - Blackrock 2015 OutlookJoão Pinto
2015 Investment Outlook
Economic growth and monetary policies are diverging across the world. Get ready for volatility spikes in 2015—and new opportunities.
We debated this at our 2015 Outlook Forum in mid-November in London. The semi-annual event, the seventh of its kind, was marked by intense investment debates in small and large groups.
The 20-page piece includes: our 2015 base case (see chart below); top investment ideas; in-depth sections on valuations, volatility and currencies; five interactive graphics; and spotlights on key regional investment trends.
Relatorio Portugal 2013 by Credito Y CaucionJoão Pinto
Crédito y Caución prevé em 2013 menos crescimentos e mais exportações em Portugal
Os sectores particularmente expostos à crise são os da madeira, construção e móveis e utensílios e acessórios, ferro e aço, retalho, electrónica e electrodomésticos.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
2. Weekly Market
Perspectives
September 24th, 2012
.
Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides services of reception, execution, and transmission of orders. The contents mentioned in this document do not
constitute (nor should they be interpreted as to form) any kind of counseling, or investment recommendation, or a record of our trading prices, or an
offer or solicitation to trade in any financial instrument. Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. will not accept any responsibility resulting from any use referring to
said content or about any resulting effect that could have occurred.
3. Spain – Another week ended…and Spain hasn’t submitted
a formal request for external support.
• Bailout speculation - According to some
news, Spanish’s policy makers could, this
week, unveil an economic reform program
that would allow it to seek a bailout. “The Euro is Irreversible”
Nonetheless, last Saturday, Spain’s Economic Draghi Speech
Minister said They will not rush to seek 2Y Bond Yields Spain
external aid; 5.00%
• ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene
4.50%
said “If Spain does not submit to OMT announcemennt
conditionality we will not buy its bonds… I 4.00%
don’t think it will take for the Spanish spreads
3.50%
to rise (if Spain doesn’t submit to the
program)”; 3.00%
• The performance of short-dated Spanish
2.50%
bonds since late July suggests that the market 1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug 5-Sep 12-Sep 19-Sep
has probably priced in ECB buying;
Source: Bloomberg
• Critical week? - Spain will announce the final
results of an expected audit to its banking
sector. Its draft budget plan for 2013 and new
structural reform will also be unveiled.
4. Greece – Will the EU/ECB/IMF report be delayed?
• The mission in Athens will take a brief pause. It
expects to return to Athens after about a week.
• Troika demands additional €11.5bn in austerity
measures;
• The local Government is divided in how to achieve Greece: GDP Growth
it. Fotis Kouvelis, Leader of the Democratic Party,
said that “The troika must stop attacking Greek 5,55%
society. The Troika must understand there are 3,08%
limits”. Several Government members stated that 2,25%
they intend to negotiate a 2 years delay to
achieve the established budget targets. The Greek -0,15%
economy is expected to stay trapped in a -2,30%
-3,28%
recession during 2012/13; -3,38%
• OPAP, Greece’s biggest gambling company, -6,50%
-6,95%
declined 19 percent during last week, after the 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
government reached an agreement with the Source: Bloomberg
European Commission to increase taxes on the
company;
• Without an agreement with Troika, Greece won’t
receive its next tranche of aid.
5. The Italian Government has revised Its fiscal targets.
Italy: Real GDP
2,20%
• 2012 public spending will exceed revenues by 0,90%
1,70% 1,8%
2.6% of GDP. The previous forecast was 1.7%. 0,40% 0,40% 0,50%
The 2013 budget target has now more than
tripled to 1.8% from 0.5%; -1,20%
• 2012 GDP is now expected to contract -2.4%, -2,25%
while the previous forecast pointed to an
economic contraction of -1.2%. The economy is -5,50%
forecast to contract by 0.2% next year; 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F
• The 2012 debt-to-GDP forecast was raised to Source: Bloomberg
126.4% from 123.4% previously. The 2013 Italy: Government Deficit as GDP %
forecast was hiked to 126.1% from 121.5%; 5,40%
• The Government announced an austere belt- 4,60%
4,40%
tightening budget with tax increases and 3,90%
3,40%
spending cuts. Prime Minister Mario Monti 2,70%
2,50%
stated that “only a fool could think it’s possible
1,60% 1,70%
to act on a decades long Italian structural 1,10%
problem without bringing about a short-term
reduction in demand.”
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F
Source: Bloomberg
6. Europe – Economic data still points to a recession.
PMI Manufacturing PMI Services
70 65
65
60
60
55 55
50
50
45
Eurozone
40 45
Eurozone Germany
35
Germany 40 France
30
France
25 35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloombergc Source: Bloomberg
Purchasing Managers
Index indices still showing
a contraction (below 50).
7. Europe – Week highlighted The ECB still has fire-power.
by Bond Auctions • Luc Coene said that the European Central Bank
still has a large number of options to ease
monetary policy: “you could further lower
France: €16.968bn interest rates, you can also try to extend the
Germany: €4.0844bn LTRO to some extent, you can also do some
Spain: €9.465bn LTRO with private credit claims as collateral”;
Portugal: €2bn • Chinese Prime Minister said that his country is
Greece: €3.557bn investing in sovereign bonds from the region to
diversify its assets and support the European
• Spain issued last week a large amount of fight against the Sovereign Crisis.
government bonds. However, only €859m
were issued with a 10 year maturity, which is
negligible. All the other auctions were done
with maturities shorter than 3 years;
• Portugal’s cost of borrowing dropped to the
lowest since 2010. The debt management
agency sold 18-month notes at an average
yield of 2.967%. 6-month bills were also
auctioned, with its average yield falling to a
one-year low.
8. US - The recovery in the US Housing Market continues to
gain traction…
• Data released last week showed that the US housing market recovery is becoming more convincing.
Existing home sales reached the highest pace since May 2010;
• The FED will keep low interest rates until 2015 and will start buying every month $40B in Mortgage
Backed Securities.
Housing Starts Existing Home Sales
900 6
850
5,5
800
750 5
in thousand
in million
700
4,5
650
600 4
550
3,5
500
450 3
Source: Bloombergc Source: Bloomberg
9. US – But other indicators showed some weakness.
Empire Manufacturing Initial Jobless Claims
700
19.53 20.21
17.09
600
13.48
in thousand
500
6.56 7.39
2.29 400
300
-5.85
200
Ja n-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Ma y-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Leading Indicators
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.2
0
-0.1 -0.1
-0.5
Ja n-12 Feb-12 Ma r-12 Apr-12 Ma y-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
Source: Bloomberg
10. Will QE3 be effective for an economic recovery?
• FED’s Dallas President said that he was unsure
that QE3 would bring any positive outcome to
the employment data. On the other hand, he
revealed his concern over inflation. Richard
Fisher is a non-voting member of the FED;
• PIMCO’s El-Erian told in a speech that Central
Banks will face unstable periods, due to the
increased holdings on their Balance Sheets.
Long-Term Consequences of this posture will
be hard to quantify.
11. BOJ increases its QE program. Conflicts are Erasing in the
• The Bank of Japan launched a round of
monetary stimulus; rest of the World
• The BOJ will increase its asset-purchasing • US and other 28 countries started military
program to a total of Y80tn, by buying another exercises in the Persian Gulf. Iranian officials
Y10tn of government bonds until the end of have threatened to close the waterway in
2013; response to threats to force the Islamic
• BOJ’s interest rates are already near zero; Republic to abandon its suspected nuclear
• Guido Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, weapons program.
warned that FED’s QE3 could reignite the • Tensions between China and Japan rising. The
currency wars. dispute over the islands, known as Diaoyu in
China and Senkaku in Japanese, seems to have
Japan Real GDP growth rate produced a diplomatic crisis between China
10% (Annualized QoQ %)
and Japan.
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Source: Bloomberg
12. Portugal
BCP Rights Issue:
• Today will be the last trading day for BCP’s rights. During last week, they were down 10%, while BCP’s
stock only lost 3%. If you wish to engage on arbitrage opportunities on the stock, please contact us.
A merger between Sonaecom and Zon – Is it going to happen this time?
• Optimus CEO, a subsidiary of Sonaecom, gave an interview to a Portuguese newspaper, Last Friday. He
underlined the benefits of a merger between the two companies. Are the two companies holding
conversations regarding a possible deal?
Portuguese Politics:
• After an eight-hour meeting of the presidential state council, Portugal's government has agreed to
negotiate alternative solutions to a social security tax hike that created the worst backlash to austerity
since last year's EU/IMF bailout.
13. Weekly Preview
Europe • Will Spain ask for external support this
week? Next Friday, it should be released
the Banking Audit for the Spanish banking
sector;
• Some experts from the EC/ECB/IMF
mission will remain in Athens to assist the
authorities with further technical work.
• Italy and Germany will auction 10Y
Government Bonds. Germany’s
unemployment data is expected.
US • In the US, durable good orders, GDP, and
the U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
will be published during this week.
Rest of • In Asia, we will follow the increasing
the geopolitics risk in the region. Will the
World markets take notice?
14. Weekly Preview
Market Indicators
This week, we remain positive for the markets, due to action that have been deployed by the various
Central Banks. A formal request for external support by Spain and a positive news flow from Greece should
be well received by the markets.
Vicious Cycle of Europe. We are still on level 2.
EURUSD 10Y Bond Yields: Spread vs Germany
1.32 7.00%
1.3
6.00%
1.28
1.26 5.00%
Spain
1.24
4.00%
1.22
1.2 3.00%
2-Jul 17-Jul 1-Aug 16-Aug 31-Aug 15-Sep Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
15. Weekly Preview
Ideas for the week: Portugal
Zon and Sonaecom. Short Term Buy. Reasons to buy:
•From a intrinsic valuation perspective, both companies seems attractive;
•The probability of a merger between the two companies seems to be increasing, after the latest news flow.
•The deal could generate attractive synergies (€250 million).
•This would create a bigger player to compete in the Residential and Mobile markets;
•Zon is the market leader in Portugal in the Residential sector, a sector that has proved to be resilient in the
current economic backdrop;
•Sonaecom has the appropriate infrastructure, market positioning and experience on the Mobile Sector that
Zon doesn’t have;
•Zon can expand to new markets, as its leading shareholder Isabel dos Santos mentioned in the past. Zon’s
Angolan JV is showing an interesting evolution. This is probably not priced currently in the stock;
•Isabel dos Santos has a 28.8% stake in Zon. She also enjoys close ties with Sonae’s retail arm;
•Some other issues should be considered:
• France Telecom has announced its intention to divest Sonaecom;
• It is important to now BES’s position on the possible M&A deal;
• French group Altice recently acquired Portuguese cable operator Cabovisão. What will Altice do, if
anything?
16. Disclaimer
Disclaimer
A Fincor—Sociedade Corretora, S.A. fornece somente serviços de recepção,
transmissão e execução de ordens. Os conteúdos mencionados não constitui (e
não será concebido de forma a constituir) qualquer espécie de aconselhamento,
ou recomendação de investimento, ou um registo dos nossos preços de
negociação, ou uma oferta ou solicitação para a transacção de qualquer
instrumento financeiro. A Fincor—Sociedade Corretora, S.A. não aceitará
qualquer responsabilidade em consequência de qualquer uso que possa ser dado
ao referido conteúdo ou sobre qualquer efeito que daí advenha.