This document summarizes the findings of a study on Peace and Conflict Indicators (PCIs) in northern Uganda. It presents data on 5 PCIs: 1) confidence in sustained peace and security, 2) local government responsiveness, 3) response to SGBV and security disruptions, 4) access to economic opportunities, and 5) competition between northern and southern Uganda. It finds improvements across regions in several areas but also ongoing challenges, and calls for PRDP implementation to better address conflict drivers and involve local communities and organizations.

1. Dr Robert Senath Esuruku

2. Overview of the Presentation
• Introduction
• The PCI’s (PCDP- PRDP-ACCS Linkage; the ACCS PCIs and
the PRDP M&E framework.
• Methodology
• Consensus Panels, Key Informant Interviews , the leadership
rapid appraisal, the Perceptions Survey and validation meetings
• Results
• Recommendations

3. Peace and Conflict Indicators (PCIs)
• The PCIs are perceptual in nature and are 5 in numbers.
• Confidence in sustained peace and security.
• Local government responsiveness to community needs.
• Response of Dispute Resolution Mechanisms (DRMs) to SGBV
and community –level security disruptions.
• Accessed to increased economic opportunities.
• Competition and grievances between the PRDP regions and
between North and South of Uganda.

4. PCDP- PRDP-ACCS Linkage
• In December 2009, Department for International Development
(DFID) approved £100 million five year grant, under the Post-
Conflict Development Programme (PCDP) for Northern Uganda.
• PCDP is a comprehensive post-conflict recovery and
development programme, under the over-arching framework of
Peace Recovery and Development Plan (PRDP) for Northern
Uganda.
• The mandate of Advisory Consortium on Conflict Sensitivity
(ACCS) is to assist DFID to strengthen the potential of the PRDP
to address the causes of conflict and contribute to sustainable
peace and stability in Northern Uganda.

5. PCIs and PRDP Connection
• Monitoring Peace and Conflict Indicators (PCIs) started
in 2011 in Lango and Acholi.
• After the 2011 survey, the PCIs were modified and
adopted as part of the M&E framework for PRDP2.
• PRDP2 SO1; Consolidation of State Authority (sub
objective 1- Functional local government
administration: ‘% of respondents assessing that
local government is responsive to community
needs…..PCI 2.

6. Methodology
• Quantitative and Qualitative (Survey, Consensus
Penal, Key Informant Interviews ).
• In 2011 and 2012, we had 2 consensus penal at
district and 3 at sub county in each district.
• In 2013, we modified consensus penal (2 at the sub
county level ~ rural and urban). This a measure to
address mobilisation difficulties at the district level.

7. Methodology
• In 2011 and 2012, the consensus penal had only
district officers and security services.
• In 2013 and 2014 local CSOs and cultural leaders
were part of the consensus penal.
• 2011 to 2013, had a series of questions that guided
discussions.
• In 2014 we introduced a presentation the PCIs
results to guide consensus penal discussions.

8. Areas Covered and Sample Size
–Severely Affected: Acholi (Gulu, Amuru,
Kitgum, Lamwo) and Karamoja (Abim, Moroto,
Kotido)
–Sporadically Affected: Lango (Otuke, Lira) and
West Nile (Adjumani, Yumbe, Arua, Zombo)
–Spill Over Regions Bukedi (Tororo) Bunyoro
(Kiryandongo) Elgon (Mbale) Teso (Soroti,
Amuria)
–Control (Mbarara, Kasese, Masaka)
–Sample size 3982 in 2012, 3972 in 2013 and
4,233 in 2014

10. PCI 1: Confidence in sustained peace and security
Feeling safe and secure in the community
Annual Increase per region
Region Av. Change P-Value
Control 4.0 0.642
Severely Affected 2.5 0.212
Sporadically Affected 2.0 0.179
Spill Over 1.5 0.121
 Guns have fallen silent after 20 years of Anguish
 Crimes in the severely and sporadically affected regions have
reduced.
 People can move freely
 Few incidences of explosion of abandoned ordnances
 Conflicts between humans and spirits
 Conflicts between humans and animals
 Petty robbery
 Fear of transition

11. PCI 1: Confidence in sustained peace and security
Confidence in sustained peace and security
Region Av. Change P-Value
Severely Affected 9.0 0.081
Control 8.5 0.394
Spill Over 5.5 0.099
Sporadically Affected 5.0 0.212
Encouragement from NGOs, political, religious and cultural
leaders.
Presence of government institutions (Police, Judiciary,
Army).
Disarmament programme in Karamoja .
Return of business in Arua, Gulu, Lira , Soroti...
Fewer incidents of security disruptions (Lamwo, Moyo,
Elegu, Zombo, Arua , Adjumani).
Kony is still alive
Conflict in South Sudan

12. PCI 2 Local Government Responsiveness to community needs
Do the Local governments proved Social services in your communities?
Region Av. Change P-Value
Severely Affected 6.0 0.418
Sporadically Affected 0.5 0.846
Control 0.0 1.000
Spill Over -3.5 0.691
There is infrastructural development (schools, health
centres, feeder roads .
Extension of electricity and water points.
 Communities have not been involved in planning,
implementation and monitoring of projects.
Some local governments reported that they have been
sidelined by the OPM and line ministries i.e. construction
of houses for Acholi Chiefs, police posts.
Generally there is poor coordination.

14. PCI 3 SGBV and community level DRMs
Personal experience of SGBV
Region Av. Change P-Value
Control -27.5 0.333
Sporadically Affected -11.5 0.079
Spill Over -11.5 0.048
Severely Affected -8.0 0.136
Key drivers of SGBV include alcohol and drug abuse.
Polygamy in West Nile, Teso and Karamoja.
The belief that such acts are normal especially in the
control region and spill over .
Moral decay and lack of parental guidance especially in
the PRDP regions.
Men reclaiming and asserting their lost masculinities .
New culture – Female husbands.

16. PCI 3 SGBV and community level DMRs
Was the dispute resolved satisfactorily?
Region Av. Change P-Value
Spill Over 12.5 0.498
Sporadically Affected 8.5 0.452
Severely Affected 5.0 0.433
Control -7.5 0.512
Trust in clan, religious, cultural and lower local
government institutions.
There were material gains and love .
Perpetrators failure to respect ruling.
Failure by the DRM machinery to summon the
perpetrator.
In the control region, DRMs machineries ask for money.

17. PCI3b Response of DRMs to community level security disruptions
Personal involvement in conflict
Region Av. Change P-Value
Severely Affected -6.5 0.242
Spill Over -6.5 0.374
Control -4.5 0.198
Sporadically Affected -2 0.179
 NGOs, religious and cultural leaders advocate for
peace.
 We are tired of conflicts.
 We fear law enforcement officers.
 Its time to rebuild our lives.
 They cannot effectively resolve conflicts with spirits.
 Alcohol and drug abuse.
 Rampant land conflicts.
 Poverty and lack of employment.

18. PCI3b Response of DRMs to community level security disruptions
Access to justice by people in the community
Region Av. Change P-value
Control 14.0 0.179
Severely Affected 12.0 0.102
Spill Over 11.5 0.172
Sporadically Affected 7.0 0.293
 Formal justice system are available
 They are open to everyone
 NGOs help us to access justice
 There is discrimination and bribery especially in the
PRDP regions.
 Unjust court officials,
 High legal fees and
 Cases take to long to be resolved.

20. PCI 4 Economic Opportunities
Access to economic opportunities
Region Av change P-Value
Control 3.5 0.052
Severely Affected 1.0 0.846
Sporadically Affected -1.5 0.593
Spill Over -2.0 0.454
 Arua, Gulu, Lira and Soroti are booming, but we are
spectators.
 Investors are mainly outsider.
 We have limited access to economic opportunities.
 Agricultural products do not fetch a lot of money and
yet are labour intensive .
 We have limited skills .
 We are outcompeted by those who have connections
and are exposed.

21. PCI 4 Economic Opportunities
Satisfaction with government efforts in responding to the economic
needs of people
Region Av change P-Value
Severely Affected 8.5 0.065
Control 7.0 0.249
Spill Over 5.5 0.099
Sporadically Affected 5.0 -
 CDD, NAADS and NUSAF are good programees, but ltd.
 Limited vocational education services.
 Limited employable skills.
 Limited markets for agricultural products, especially in
the PRDP regions.
 Limited employment opportunities.

23. PCI 5 Competition and Grievance between North & South
Level of competition and grievance between the North & South
Region Av change P-Value
Control 8.0 0.046
Spill Over 3.0 0.740
Sporadically Affected 1.5 0.846
Severely Affected -0.5 0.948
 Political marginalisation
 High levels of poverty
 Social exclusion.
 Better infrastructure in South
 More vibrant economic activities in the South

24. PCI 5 Competition and Grievance between North and South
Is the government doing enough to bridge the gap between the north and
south of the country?
Region Av change P-Value
Control 11.5 0.357
Sporadically Affected 2.5 0.771
Spill Over 2.5 0.846
Severely Affected 1.0 0.891
 There are policy frameworks and guidelines
 There are some state machinery (Government officials,
police , judiciary
 Perceived sense of Marginalisation (political,
economic and social…).
 High levels of poverty
 High disease burden (HIV/AIDs, Hepatitis A,B,C,D,E ,
Nodding disease
 Unresolved border and land conflicts

25. Conclusions and Recommendations
• Concluding Remarks
– Does investment in infrastructure and state authority
alone address the root causes of the conflicts in NU?
– What will happen with PRDP if the implementation
does not balance community needs with
government interests?
– Do you think the implantation of PRDP will achieve its
purpose if it is spread beyond the war affected
districts?
– What roles should OPM and line ministries play in the
implementation of PRDP?

26. Conclusions and Recommendations
• Recommendations
– Graduate PRDP from a plan to a robust post conflict
development programme.
– PRDP should be driven by realities of the war affected
communities.
– It should have a strong focus to address conflict
drivers.
– OPM and line ministries should provide oversight
function.
– The implementation of PRDP should be done by local
governments, private sector and civil society
orgnisations.