The document analyzes demographic trends in the community of Belledune, highlighting significant population declines in the youth and working-age segments, which could threaten economic stability and service delivery. It emphasizes the need for strategic initiatives to attract and retain residents aged 15-65, particularly those 15-35, through the formation of a Youth Advisory Committee tasked with creating attractive opportunities. Failure to address these demographic challenges may lead to unsustainable economic conditions and increased burdens on the community's future.

1. 1
INFO
GRAPHIC
2

2. Learning
Definitions
2

3. 3
Terminology
Everyone needs a refresher sometime
Our national body for census
data interpretation and findings.
Stats Canada
The number of tax filers aged 15 to
64 who had some paid employment
income in a given year.
Paid Employment
The amount by which work force
is balanced by non-working
segments
Demographic
Dependency Ratio
Persons Aged 15-35 for the
purpose of this study.
Youth
Areas of a base population viewed
as an economic region. We are
Miramichi / Campbellton.
Economic Regions
The process by which investors
and companies assess a regions
suitability for investment
Regional Evaluation

4. 4
Contraposition
An Important Term
In logic, contraposition is an inference that says that a conditional
statement is logically equivalent to its contrapositive. The
contrapositive of the statement has its antecedent
and consequent inverted and flipped: the contrapositive of is thus . For
instance, the proposition "All bats are mammals" can be restated as the
conditional "If something is a bat, then it is a mammal". Now, the law says
that statement is identical to the contrapositive "If something is not a
mammal, then it is not a bat."
Contraposition

5. 5
The Findings
Where we are!
2011
Population
2015
Population
Growth %
2011
Demo
Dependency
Ratio
2016
Demo
Dependency
Ratio
Change
Employment
Percentages
C & M 122486 99541 -18.7 43.1 54.4 11.3 -12.3
M & R 133222 142420 8.5 43.3 48.7 5.4 7.8
SJ & SS 116726 113656 -2.6 47.9 50.5 2.7 -1.3
FR & Oro 88961 94968 6.8 43.4 47.4 4.0 3.0
Ed & Wood 58856 50692 -13.9 46.5 53.2 6.7 -9.8
Total Row 520251 501277 -19.9 44.84 50.84 6 -12.6

6. 6
Belledune
Shakes Head Sadly
2016
Population
Growth %
2016
Demo Dependency
Ratio
Belledune 1417 -8.5 69.0
A strong economic growth Demographic Dependency ratio falls below 50%.
It drives costs to a community, willingness for investment, population attraction.

7. 7
Our Demographic Spread
We’re Already Behind the 8-Ball
Ages of 0-14
Those deemed too young to join the workforce.
Also, this demographic is not mobile and replaces
the working demo
Ages 15-65
The bulk of taxpayers and gainfully employed. It
is this demographic that drives investment and
Economic growth.
Ages 65+
The retired. For our part we have a number of
employed citizens over this age, but it is
unsustainable.
135
840
445
Persons
Persons
Persons

8. 8
-20%
Loss
A Loss of 30 Kids
It may not seem like a lot, but this is 20% of the population
under the age of 15. This demographic is essential - the
continued decline of this population will result in the
closure of facilities that are based on population
requirements.
This will make it increasingly difficult to attract people in
the next critical segment.
Demographics Regression
Ages 0-14

9. 9
-18.5%
Loss
A loss of 190 Contributing
Citizens
The result is a loss of an almost identical 18.5%. If you care
about economic growth, about a community being able to
continue to deliver the services, businesses being able to
survive, and any kind of future investment coming - this is
the stat you should be most frightened by.
Not only is this a significant tax base loss, but it is also the
demographic that most supports community businesses
and infrastructure, i.e. arenas, wharfs, restaurants, small
and medium businesses. This is also the demographic that
leads to growth in the 0-14 segment.
Demographics Regression
Ages 15-64

10. 10
2016Is probably not at all accurate
for many types of technology,
but you can change to suit
25%
Gain
A Gain of 90 Citizens Over 65
Exceeding the amount of loss of both the previous two
demographics, the senior population has increased by 90
persons (or 25%). The issue Belledune is facing is that the
growth of this segment was not able to offset the 8.5%
overall decrease in population. Therefore, it is safe to
assume that the increase in this demographic is not due to
net new citizens, but instead the result of an aging
population.
It is important to note that these citizens are not feeding
the pipeline for the other demographics and skew our
Demographic Dependency Ratio into unenviable areas.
Demographics Progression
Ages 65+

11. 11
PART 2:
The Impact

12. 12
S W O T
Belledune is Exposed
S
W
T
O
Divided population.
Anglophone community
surrounded by Francophones.
Weaknesses
Ability to self invest, retain and
attract anglophones in immediate
region and beyond.
Opportunities
Large industrial tax base.
Ability to self fund infrastructure.
Strengths
Regionalization led by broke
communities.
Potential loss of school.
Threats

13. 13
Employment Effects on Population
Rene Morrisette - Statistics Canada
5%
Reduction in
Job Force.
These losses raise the
DDR by at least
1-1.5%
In turn fuelling a
reduced workforce,
resulting in less
investment and growth
A 5% loss in job force
results in a 7%-7.5%
decrease in those
Aged 15-35
Loss results in 4.5% - 6%
loss in population

14. 14
Trending Downward
Assuming the Trend Continues (There are No Reasons to Assume it Won’t!)
15-64
0-14
65+
65+ 15-64 0-14
Forget 2030 - We won’t make it there
These pie charts represent the demographic make up of our community if trends consistent with the last two census’s hold up. With the
65+ slice of the pie growing to take over the majority of the population we can see we are heading into significant issues in the 2020’s.
CURRENT 2021 2026

15. Projected Demographic Dependency Ratio 15
69%
94%
130%

16. 16
Service Declines
People continuing to move out of town.
Seek opportunities elsewhere.
Additional Travel Costs
and service fees
2021By this time we will see
significant drop offs in
employed persons within the
community. This will drive up
costs for business owners
and create difficulties for all
social and recreational
programs.
2026When the amount of seniors
outnumbers the remaining
population things will get
even tougher.
What We Can Expect
Increased Costs

17. Effects of a High Demographic Dependency Ratio
Immediate Consequences of Allowing a High DDR (from the Economist)
17
Reduced Tax Revenue Increased Gov’t Spending Higher Taxes
Lower Pension Returns Raising of Pension Age Inequality in Aging Lifestyle

18. Extended Consequences
What a High DDR Means for the Future
18
Passing of Debt to Future Generations Increased Exodus of Young Families

19. 19
PART 3:
Bucking the Trend

20. Youth Advisory
Committee

21. 21
The Youth Movement
Because all of these negative effects are reliant on an ever increasing DDR,
we prioritize and work towards the recruitment and retention of persons within
the 15-65 age demographic, with particular focus on those 15-35, whom provide
the greatest level of benefit in terms of internal investment (i.e. citizens in 0-14 range
and are the most elastic to opportunities). A committee that will follow the next set of guidelines
will be charged with creating strategies to present to council particularly focussed on attracting and
retaining this demographic.

22. 22Organization and Mandate of the Youth Advisory Committee
Comprised of Young Citizens aged 15-40, the committee shall have the following organization and mandate
The Committee will consist of no more than 12 members, and no fewer than five. The Youth
Advisory Committee will be responsible for the following:
• Recommending initiatives and programs that will make Belledune a more attractive option for
people ages 15-65, and assisting in their execution as required.
• Recommending ways in which to retain current citizenship within the target demographic.
• Liaising with other regional economic development, recreation and culture, government and
population growth initiatives.
• Holding at least one formal meeting every two months, where minutes will be taken and a
chair, vice chair, secretary and project lead positions are awarded.
• Project teams will be expected to provide findings and recommendations to the committee as
a whole in these bi-monthly meetings.
• The committee will report to council with recommendations on the month that is not their
meeting month, (Chair to present, or vice chair / secretary in their absence)
• A small contingent to attend provincial or Maritime conferences (as approved by council on a
case to case basis) on the subject of Population growth and youth issues.
• Members may resign anytime with a month’s written notice to the chair or council
representative.

23. 23
Hierarchy of the Youth Advisory Committee
Comprised of Young Citizens aged 15-40, the committee shall have the following organizational structure.
• The Committee will serve as part of the Community’s Economic Development
Initiative and be funded within that department’s budget.
• Non-Village (council or staff) members of the committee will receive an honorarium
of $50/month, mileage for any conferences attended, and the costs of conferences
and accommodations will be paid for by the village (as approved by council or the
CAO on an individual basis in accordance with the Local Government Act)
• Members will be selected by a combination of invitation and application, by the CAO
and the Council Representative.
• Members terms only expire when they choose to resign their position.

24. Idea
Idea
Idea Idea
Innovation is not a laser, it’s an UZI
Innovation is not an exact science, neither is economic development or youth retention and attraction. It will take a lot of ideas being
tested and challenged by many sharp minds in order to figure out what will work for Belledune.

25. 25
The Machine Requires Energy
Whether it’s fuel, steam or electricity every machine needs power.
Once these programs are created
awareness is key.
Promotion and Visibility
The biggest piece that people miss,
we need a database and next steps
Follow Up
Finding ways to reward current
residents who attract new ones.
Referral Incentive
The creation of various initiatives
to attract and retain young people.
Ideas and Programs
With an engaged committee
council and staff it can happen!
Great Execution
Recruiting families and individuals
on a one on one basis.
One on One

26. 26
Objectives
KPI’s for Success
Rise in net new citizens
65+ share of population decrease
Stabilization of 0-14 demo
Decrease In Losses of 15-65 Demo
Decrease / Stabilization in DDR %
2021By the next Census we need to see
the following KPI achieved in order
to avoid the consequences above.

27. 27
In Conclusion
It doesn’t take a genius to look around our community and realize that the way things
are going we are headed towards trouble. Not just for future generations but also for
those who have become to accustomed to their current standards of service and
living. The sad truth is that with a Demographic Dependency Ratio trending like ours
is, we will very soon be an unbalanced equation.
With pressures of regionalization and continued deficit spending by the Provincial
government, there will be no bail out, our industries will be easy targets for
surrounding communities who faced this realization years ago.

28. 28