"The Challenge of Measuring for Results in Conflict Situations The Case of the Philippines " Regional Review Conference on the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development Manila, Philippines | 8-9 October 2014

1. The Challenge of Measuring for Results
in Conflict Situations
The Case of the Philippines
Jennifer Santiago Oreta, PhD
Assistant Secretary
Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process

2. Table 1: Comparison of HDI Bottom list, 2003, 2006, 2009
HDI Bottom 10 Provinces,
2003
HDI Bottom 10
Provinces, 2006
HDI Bottom 10 Provinces,
2009
Lanao del Sur Romblon Lanao del Sur
Eastern Samar Zamboanga del Norte Masbate
Western Samar Eastern Samar Zamboanga Norte
Saranggani Saranggani Sarangani
Zamboanga del Norte Masbate Davao Oriental
Masbate Lanao del Sur Agusan del Sur
Basilan Basilan Zamboanga Sibugay
Tawi tawi Maguindanao Tawi tawi
Maguindanao Tawi tawi Maguindanao
Sulu Sulu Sulu
ALL of these provinces are conflict affected areas
The highlighted provinces are those that remain consistent in the HDI Bottom list

3. Table 2: Comparison of GDI Bottom list, 2003, 2006, 2009
The provinces in the GDI Bottom list remain consistent, and they also are part
of the Bottom list of HDI

4. 2 impt. indicators in HDI & GDI (2003, 2006, 2009):
• Life expectancy:
– Life expectancy is improving, but Females continue to
outlive the males
• 2003: Female 62.4 Male 58.0
• 2006: Female 64.3 Male 60.4
• 2009: Female 67.7 Male 64.05
• Educational performance
2014 ave: 68.7
– Females have slightly higher HS completion than males
• 2003: HS completion: Female 32.3 Male 30.4
• 2006: HS completion: Female 37.5 Male 34.15
• 2009: Mean yr of schooling: Female 6.9 Male 6.6
• 2014 ave: 8.88

5. Common Realities in Conflict Affected
Communities
• Road inter-connectivity not developed
• Availability and proximity of basic services still a
challenge; LGU has limited resource to address basic
needs of constituents
• Limited investment/ economic activities and
opportunities
• Justice and Rights: Limited access to justice
mechanisms; Promotion of basic rights a concern

6. • The provinces that are consistently in the
Bottom list of HDI and GDI are mostly conflict
affected communities
– Are the HDI and GDI poor because of the
existence of armed conflict? OR
– Is there armed conflict because the quality
of life is poor ?

7. There is a need for tool(s) that directly correlates
the indicators with the desired outcome
- Correlation studies well established in fields of
development and governance;
- The gap is in finding local studies that correlate
peace, security, justice with development and
quality of life

8. SECTOR INDICATORS
(part of) PEACE & SECURITY SECTOR STATISTICS
FRAMEWORK
COMPO
NENTS
SUB-COMPONENT
S
SOCIETAL
GOAL:
To support
socio-economic
development
and political
stability
INCLUSIVE
GROWTH
AND
POVERTY
REDUCTION
SECTORAL
GOAL:
To attain
peaceful,
secure and
stable internal
environment
STABLE
NATIONAL
SECURITY
ENVIRONMEN
T ACHIEVED
Crime
Prevention,
Justice /
Law and
Order
Conflict/Cris
is
Managemen
t and
Prevention
Police & Law
Enforcement
Prosecution & Courts
Corrections
Crime Prevention
Peace Process
Counter-Terrorism
Crisis/Disaster
Response
Disaster Risk Reduction
& Management
Crime Stat & Human
Rights Ind.
Justice Indicators
Corrections Statistics
Crime Prevention
Indicators
Peace Process
Indicators
Counter-Terrorism
Indicators
Crisis/Disaster
Response Indicators
Natural & Human-
Induced Disasters &
Emergency Statistics
8

9. The Peace and Security Statistics Framework
intends to clearly link the datasets generated by
different government agencies (e.g. NEDA, DND,
DILG, DOJ), and link the same in the sectoral goal
(peaceful, secure, and stable internal
environment) , and the over-all societal goal of
inclusive growth and poverty reduction.
This initiative started in 2014
- 1st run will be made available by early 2015
- LT goal: Create a Philippine Peace and Security Index

10. EXAMPLE 1
Peace Process Subsector Outcome: Communities in areas affected and
vulnerable to conflict are able to improve their quality of life
Indicators Baseline Midterm (as
of June 2013)
Indicators End Target
Year Value (2016)
Level of
human
development
in bottom 10
provinces with
communities
affected by and
vulnerable to
conflict
improved
2009 Bottom 10
provinces
in the
HDI list
are
provinces
with
communit
ies
affected
by and
vulnerable
to conflict
Improved
levels of HDI
in X/10
conflict
affected
provinces
-education -
health
-justice & HR
-income
-access to road
-access to
water and
electricity
The 10 conflict
affected provinces
have improved
quality of life
(Improved levels of
HDI in education,
health, justice & HR,
income, access to
road, water,
electricity)
Data to be generated from DepEd, DOH, DILG, DAR, DA, DOE, NEA,,
LGUs, NSCB

11. EXAMPLE 2
Peace Subsector Outcome: Former rebels are able to return to normal
conditions where they can become productive members of society
Indicators Baseline Mid-term (as of June
2013)
Indicators End Target (2016)
Year Value
Number of
former
rebels in
governmen
t
reintegratio
n program
provided
with
reintegratio
n assistance
increased
2010 X
Enrolle
es in
the
CLIP
(Comp
rehensi
ve
Local
Integra
tion
Progra
m)
• X former rebels
provided with
Livelihood
Assistance,
PhilHealth
membership,
CHED
scholarships
• X former rebels
assisted with their
healing and
reconciliation
process
- Livelihood
assistance
- PhilHealth
- Education
assistance
- Healing
and
reconciliat
ion
processes
X Former rebels are
mainstreamed and
made productive
members of society
(all former rebels
enrolled in
government
reintegration
programs provided
with reintegration
and healing and
reconciliation
assistance )
Data to be generated from OPAPP, DILG, AFP, , DENR, PHIC, CHED, LGUs

12. Challenges
• Intervening factors can affect the relationship of
indicators (e.g. natural disaster, political exercises,
security concerns)
• Data generation is a challenge, given the volume of
datasets required and the schedule of agencies in data
generation
• Re the framework - absence of relevant policy
document, the national security strategy that is
supposed to link the National Security Policy with the
internal peace and security plans of agencies