Pathway Toward Shared Autonomous Mobility
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Lukas Neckermann's Presentation at the Dubai World Congress for Self Driving Vehicles 2019. Presentation of the study results: Being Driven. Neckermann Strategic Advisors Being Driven
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Pathway Toward Shared Autonomous Mobility
- 1. Information Classification: General A pathway toward shared autonomous mobility Lukas Neckermann Managing Director, Neckermann Strategic Advisors
- 3. Information Classification: General Where are the humans?
- 4. Information Classification: General Where are the humans?Where are the Humans? Note: We hold no license or rights of reproduction for the Wall-E image, which is a Pixar / Disney copyright. It is used solely for effect in the context of this presentation.
- 5. Information Classification: General Dreaming about a seamless transition to shared autonomous mobility Autonomous Human driven SharedPrivate 2018 2019 2030
- 6. Information Classification: General Our urban dream: countless new shared, autonomous shuttles Private 2018 2019 2030 Autonomous Human driven Shared
- 7. Information Classification: General Do we all believe in shared, autonomous mobility? Private 2018 2019 2030 Autonomous Human driven Shared
- 8. Information Classification: General Considering an alternate path to shared, autonomous mobility Private 2018 2019 2030 Autonomous Human driven Shared 2020-25
- 9. Information Classification: General Multiple pathways toward a shared, autonomous future Private 2018 2019 2030 Shared 2020-25 Human driven AutonomousRural Urban US road network: 163,000 miles. 70% rural. Source: Federal Highway Administration 2019; motorways and main roads only
- 10. Information Classification: General Either way, we are asking humanity to take a ‘double leap’ 20 years of gradual adoption toward the “revolution”
- 11. Information Classification: General A study on human adoption of autonomous vehicles and ownership 3,000 respondents UK May-June 2019 20+ Interviewees 9 Countries 14k words
- 12. Information Classification: General Politics, Economics,Technology – Largely addressed Political and Legislative Goodwill to implement autonomous vehicle projects: US state regulation, Queen’s speech 2017, Tokyo 2020. Legislative process underway, UN and EU-wide Economics Global Market value by: - 2022 | $156B (EU report) - 2026 | $556B (Allied Market Research) - 2030 | up to $9trn (ARK MaaS forecast) Technology Frequent catchy announcements regarding the first AV launch. Listen to Elon in Feb 2019…
- 13. Information Classification: General Our greatest challenge is public acceptance, education, trust Political and Legislative Goodwill to implement autonomous vehicle projects: US state regulation, Queen’s speech 2017, Tokyo 2020. Legislative process underway, UN and EU-wide Economics Global Market value by: - 2022 | $156B (EU report) - 2026 | $556B (Allied Market Research) - 2030 | up to $9trn (ARK MaaS forecast) ? People What about user acceptance, adoption, education and trust? Technology Frequent catchy announcements regarding the first AV launch. Listen to Elon in Feb 2019…
- 14. Information Classification: General $45+ bn global, yearly advertising spend on “driving” and “passion” Source: Automotive News / Advertising Age 2016. Logos: various companies Innovation DreamsExcitement Confidence Passion LifeSoul Sheer Driving Pleasure Excellence BeautyPower Emotion Drive
- 15. Information Classification: General Our Study: Autonomous vehicles with a negative perception Uncomfortable with AV 27% 32% 34% 28% 23% 17% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 16-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ How comfortable are you with vehicles operating at L4 or L5 right now? 7 8 9 10 - Very comfortable Total Source: Neckermann Strategic Advisors / 7th Sense Research 2019
- 16. Information Classification: General Our Study: 4 root causes for a negative perception of AV 01 02 03 04 Human Nature Communication / Education Lack of Standardisation Survey bias
- 17. Information Classification: General 60% 5% 16% 13% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Shared use, no ownership – like an Uber Pool Private use, no ownership – like a taxi or Zipcar Shared use, no ownership, set routes – like a public minibus Private use, shared ownership – you own and share it with a small group of peers, like a timeshare Private use, private ownership – sits in your driveway like a regular car Our Study: Private ownership and use of AV vastly preferred 64% 59% 55% 63% 59% 62% 7% 9% 9% 5% 2% 2% 11% 11% 15% 13% 17% 23% 13% 13% 13% 13% 15% 10% 4% 7% 8% 5% 7% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 16-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ Source: Neckermann Strategic Advisors / 7th Sense Research 2019 Which one of these would be the most appealing way to access autonomous transport?
- 18. Information Classification: General Younger users especially prefer one-off fees for personal transport 34% 20% 31% 12% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 36% 34% 31% 33% 36% 36% 27% 25% 24% 23% 16% 12% 27% 29% 29% 30% 35% 35% 9% 11% 14% 12% 11% 9% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 16-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ Other Subscription with per-use fee Per-use fee Annual/Monthly subscription One-off access fee Which one of these would be the most appealing way to pay for access to autonomous transport? Source: Neckermann Strategic Advisors / 7th Sense Research 2019
- 19. Information Classification: General Educating on autonomous: a strong preference for live experience 65% 56% 45% 36% 34% 13% 12% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Live demonstrations & workshops Dedicated websites TV shows Education in schools YouTube “How to” videos Online Forums Newspaper advertising Other (Please specify) In your opinion, which three ways would be best to educate people about CAVs? * Source: Neckermann Strategic Advisors / 7th Sense Research 2019. Up to 3 mentions possible
- 20. Information Classification: General Global AV test beds: More than 100 cities testing vehicles 3 cities** 50 vehicles*** 3 cities** 30 vehicles*** 36 cities* 1,400+ vehicles* Sources: * Washington Post, 2019 ** Aspen Institute and Bloomberg Philanthropies, 2018 *** Neckermann Strategic Advisors assumption **** China Daily, 2018 14 cities**** 100+ vehicles**** 6 cities** 100+ vehicles*** 5 cities** 50 vehicles*** 5 cities** 50 vehicles*** 4 cities** 80 vehicles*** 5 cities** 50 vehicles*** 3 cities*** 30 vehicles*** Various projects
- 21. Information Classification: General Communicate benefits of autonomous in all scenarios – today
- 22. Information Classification: General Our Study: How to communicate with future AV users? Adapt language › AV manufacturers should avoid promoting features such as “automated”, “self-driving”, “autonomous”, “autopilot” or “driverless”. It creates confusion in the user’s mind. Align message › Public and private parties should align their message to show consistency both in topic and terminology Include future users › Cities should develop an inclusive dialogue with the future users through focus groups and specific events Change the subject › Mobility stakeholders should talk about safety, quality and use- cases, rather than software and hardware Be more vocal › Cities and companies should be more vocal about the vision
- 23. Information Classification: General 02 03 Groups concerned about air quality, congestion, quality of life, … are all potential AV advocates. There is a need for a single unified voice to promote AV interests. 45 minutes is what a user needs to trust an AV. The creation of test centers and on-site demonstrations – in various scenarios – is critical to changing user AV perceptions. Homogeneous and proactive communication and education towards future users will significantly facilitate the AV introduction. 01 Advocate Educate Create Experiences The road to AV – What needs to be done
- 24. Information Classification: General Thank you! www.Neckermann.net