At the 2016 CCIH Annual Conference, Dr. Jonathan Quick of Management Sciences for Health discusses recent pandemics and explores the keys to preventing future outbreaks.

1. envision a world
WHERE EVERYONE
h a s th e o p p or tu n ity fo r a hea lt hy life

2. Management Sciences for Health
What Bill Gates fears
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3. Management Sciences for Health
Likelihood over
the next 5 years
1. Natural pandemic
2. Nuclear war
3. Engineered pandemic
4. Catastrophic climate change
5. Asteroid impact
6. Catastrophic disruption from
artificial intelligence
7. Super-volcanic eruption
We each “five times as likely to die in an
extinction event as in a car crash.”

4. Living our faith through pandemic prevention
and strong public health systems
Jonathan D. Quick, MD,MPH, Management Sciences for Health
CCIH Annual Conference, June, 2016
The pool at Bethesda, John 5:2-8

5. Management Sciences for Health
Biblical Wisdom for Global Health
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2014: The quiet faith of Nelson Mandela – Methodism,
Leadership, and AIDS
2013: At the Forefront – Universal Health Coverage,Women,
and Faith
2012: Chronic Diseases, BiblicalWisdom, Longevity – The
Epidemiology,The Word,The Evidence
2011: Leading Health Organizations – Lessons from God's First
Century LeadershipTeam (reprise)
2010: Injustice, Impact, Inspiration –Women, the MDGs, and
Faith
2009: BiblicalWisdom for Digital Living –Wired forTechnology,
Instructions Not Included
2008: Leading Health Organizations – Lessons from God's First
Century LeadershipTeam

6. Management Sciences for Health
The Christian dedication to caring
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A new command I give you: Love one another.
As I have loved you, so you must love one
another. By this all people will know that
you are my disciples, if you love one
another.
John 13:34-35

7. Management Sciences for Health
Antonine Plague (165–180 AD)
Cyprian Plague (251-266 AD)
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Most of our brother Christians showed
unbounded love and loyalty, never
sparing themselves, and thinking only of
one another.
Heedless of danger, they took charge of
the sick, attending to their every need and
ministering to them in Christ, and with
them departed this life serenely happy
Easter Sunday, 260 AD, Bishop Dionysius of Corinth

8. Management Sciences for Health
Scapegoating & persecution in Black Death
Valentine’s Day Massacre, Strassbourge
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9. Management Sciences for Health
Jews herded onto an island in the Rhine
and burned to death.
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10. Management Sciences for Health
A ID S - Th e mo s t p o w er fu l c o n tr ib u tio n c h u r c h es c a n
mak e is th e e r a d ic a tio n o f s tig ma a n d d is c r imin a tio n.
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11. Management Sciences for Health
We know how to stop local disease
outbreaks with strong health systems
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12. Management Sciences for Health
What can the CCIH community do?
1. Build community awareness and response
capacity – it’s not primary care OR outbreak control
– it’s both.
2. Sound the alarm – like a house on fire, speed and
decisiveness save lives – and livelihoods!
3. Rouse the leaders – advocate for and support
epidemic prevention and preparedness at all levels.
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13. Management Sciences for Health
Strengthening national health systems
for epidemic prevention and response
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1. Develop Core Capacities to International Health Regulations
(IHC) Core Capacities – costed plans by 2017
2. Assess IHR Core Capacities – WHO Joint External Evaluation
Tool published January, 2016
3. Comply with IHR Core Capacity Requirements – by 2020
all countries compliant
4. UtilizeTechnical & Financial Assistance – WHO technical
support,World Bank to mobilize financing
5. Participate in Core Capacity Assessments – incentives for
from WB, donors
6. IncreaseTraining of Health Professionals – esp. CHWs
7. Engage the Community – include community leaders, civil
society, private sector, the media
8. Gender Inclusion - include women at all levels of planning and
operations
SOURCE: Toward a Common Secure Future, L Gostin et al, PLOS Medicine, 2016

14. Management Sciences for Health
Community-based health system
prevention and response in Liberia
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Community-Centered Responses to Ebola in Urban Liberia: The View from Below. Abramowitz et al, PLOS
Neglected Tropical Disease, 2015

15. Photo Credit: Vice News/Kayla Ruble

16. Photo Credit: Associated Press/Aurelie Marrier D'unienvil

17. Management Sciences for Health
Am I my brothers’ keeper?
Complacency, denial, delay threaten everyone.
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“The catalyst to engage the was the evacuation [of two U.S. health workers] to
Emory hospital. Nobody cared about West Africa. Then the western world
began paying….You can have the best alert system but once you have enough
evidence you need to contract the response time to 6 days from 6 months. “
Dr. Joanne Liu, President, MSF (Doctors without Borders)
Aug. 8 – WHO
declares international
health emergency
March–Ebola crossing
borders & killing health
workers
April–Strong warning
from MSF, decades of
experience

18. Management Sciences for Health
The human cost of delayed action
( G AT E S : 1 M d e a t h s @ 1 0 0 d a y s , 3 3 M @ 2 0 0 d a y s )
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19. 19
Governments Too many priorities; too little funding to do prevention
International agencies Epidemic prevention and preparedness often are not a
priority
Business sector Often act only when there is an outbreak
Citizens Unaware of risks of the great risk
Policymakers Don’t understand the cost of inaction
Media First Ebola, now Zika – will forget once epidemic is over
Action wanes when the headlines fade:
NoMoreEpidemics.org

20. We can change this. Leaders will act when organizations and
individuals raise the alarm and demand progress.
Get Involved
• Expand outbreak detection and reporting capacity in your work
• Join us in prayer to end epidemics
• Join us in action, by signing up to the campaign and becoming a
partner
• Spread the word - promote the campaign within church,
congregation and among your friends and colleagues
TOGETHER WE CAN
STOP THE NEXT EPIDEMICS

21. Management Sciences for Health
Is No More Epidemics achievable?
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22. Management Sciences for Health
We can achieve the “impossible”
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23. Saving lives and improving the health
of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people
by closing the gap between knowledge and action in public health.
www.msh.org
By this all people will know you are my disciples…
We can leave our children a safer world. But will we?