Palestra "Technology Trends To Watch In 2012 and beyond"

Cezar Taurion
Executivo de Novas Tecnologias/Technical Evangelist

Technology Trends To Watch In 2012 and
beyond

© 2012 IBM Corporation

A New Model for the Enterprise in a Flat World

Globally Integrated Enterprise

Globalization Internet

Trade Deregulation Commoditization

• Uncertain macroeconomic indicators in developed economies/ Unstable European economic
conditions
• Developing economies now contribute more to world economic growth than developed economies.
• Success of China’s economy becoming more crucial
• Demographic shifts continue as people live longer
• Risks are everywhere, resulting in unpredictability
2 © 2012 IBM Corporation

Vivemos uma rápida evolução da internet


The 3rd generation of computing platform, the 3rd phase of the
Internet, and the explosion of information are colliding to form a
perfect storm of disruption and transformation

Phases of the Inter
net
Internet Web
2.0
Web
Mobi
3 . 0 (C
lo
le, Socia ud,
l)
1964 1981 1994 2003 2008 2012
2020-2
s,
tphone
s (Smar
obile Device
Generations of M
, etc)
Computing Tablets

Platforms Ser ver /PC
Client

ame
Mainfr Amount of Data
Collected and
Stored


2012 Technology Trends To Watch

1. Cloud Computing
2. Social Business
3. Mobile Computing/Consumerization of IT
4. Big Data/Analytics


A cloud computing primer – your 60 second guide

A new model of IT Key ingredients:
delivery and •elasticity
Start consumption… …inspired by internet •PAYG
services in the •on-demand self-service
consumer space

Analogies - electricity Evolutionary, not A “confluence of
generation revolutionary – time technologies” –
and The sharing, hosting, ASP virtualization, SOA,
Model-T Ford multi-tennancy

Variants – public, Get to Near-term adoption
private, hybrid, know overstated, long-term
community, ? the impact underestimated – Finish
G-cloud add to Cloud all bets are off !
confusion stack


Cloud Service Models

Financials CRM/ERP/HR

Industry Specific
Collaboration
Applications

Software/ Application-as-a-Service

Web 2.0 Applications Development
Middleware Tools
Runtime

Database Desktop

Platform-as-a-Service

Data Center
Servers Networking Storage
Fabric
Consolidated, standardised, virtualised,
shared, dynamically provisioned, automated

Infrastructure-as-a-Service


A range of deployment options

Private Hybrid Public

IT capabilities are provided Internal and external IT activities /
“as a service,” over an service delivery functions are
intranet, within the enterprise methods are provided “as a
and behind the firewall integrated service,” over the
Internet

Enterprise Users
Enterprise Enterprise Enterprise
data center data center A B A B

Private cloud Managed Hosted private Member cloud Public cloud
private cloud cloud services services
Private Third-party operated Third-party owned and Mix of shared and dedicated Shared resources
On client premises Client owned operated resources Elastic scaling
Client runs/ manages Mission critical Standardization Shared facility and staff Pay as you go
Packaged applications Centralization Virtual private network (VPN) Public Internet
Security access
High compliancy
Internal network Subscription or membership
Internal network based


Cloud computing is more than the sum of the parts…

Cloud Computing

Virtualization + Standardization + Automation + Self Service

With With With With
Enables flexibility Simplification Low human involvement User in control
Increase utilization Few configurations Rapid deployment & mgt Cost and usage choices
Energy efficient Enables automation Repeatable configuration Increased visibility
Soft configuration Easier support Improves compliance IT/Business alignment
Infrastructure abstraction
Without Without Without Without
Physically constrained Physically constrained Manually intensive Dependency of availability
of data centre staff
Capital intensive Many configurations Skill dependent
Lack of awareness
Hard configuration Error prone
Linked to PO process Costly


Cloud is widely recognized as an increasingly important technology;
adoption is expected to accelerate rapidly in the coming years
What is Your Organization’s Level of The Global Cloud Computing Market is
Cloud Adoption? Forecast to Grow 22% per year through 2020
% of Respondents
91% $250B $241B

Piloting
21%
72% $200B

$150B
Adopting $150B
38% 28%

+33% $100B

Substantially
21% Implemented $50B
41%
+215% $41B
13%
$0B
Today 3 yrs
2011 2015 2020
Source: Sizing the cloud, Forrester Research, Inc., April 21, 2011
Nearly half (48%) of CIOs surveyed evaluate cloud options first, over
traditional IT approaches, before making any new IT investments
Source: (1) 2011 joint IBV/EIU Cloud-enabled Business Model Survey of 572 business & IT leaders; Q4. Which of the following most accurately describes your organisation’s level of
cloud technology adoption today and which do you expect will best describe it in three years?
Sizing the cloud , Forrester Research, April 21, 2011; http://www.cio.com/article/684338/Survey_CIOs_Are_Putting_the_Cloud_First

Today, at least two thirds of companies of all sizes are actively
either experimenting with or implementing cloud

What is Your Organization’s Level of Cloud Adoption?
% of Respondents; Today
82%
76%

67%

43% Piloting
44%
32%

21% Adopting
22% 34%

14% 10%
Substantially
5% Implemented

<$1B $1B - $20B >$20B
Company Annual Revenues
Source: (1) 2011 joint IBV/EIU Cloud-enabled Business Model Survey of 572 business & IT leaders, Q4, n=363


IT and Business are attracted to cloud for different reasons.

IT is drawn to cloud’s cost, efficiency and control…

of CIOs plan to use cloud—
up from 33% two years ago.

Transformation
Efficiency

of business executives believe cloud
enables business transformation and
leaner, faster, more agile processes.

…while business users are drawn to cloud’s simplified,
self-service experience and new service capabilities.
2011 IBM CIO Study, London School of Economics, December 2010


IT benefits from Cloud Computing are real

Value delivered From traditional To cloud
Change management Months Days or hours

Test provisioning Weeks 20 minutes

Install database 1 day 12 minutes
Install of operating system 1 day 30–60 minutes

Provisioning environment ▄ 51% cost savings
Design and deploy business applications Months Days/Weeks

“Our commitment to informed decision making led us to consider private cloud
delivery of Cognos via System z, which is the enabling foundation that makes
possible +$20M savings over 5 years.”
– IBM Office of the CIO


There are six typical steps to getting started with Cloud
“IBM Cloud Assessment Workshop”

1 2 3
Understand Strategic Analyze Workloads Determine Delivery
Direction Models

High IT Provider Relationship Profile E-Mail, Software Enterprise
Provider researches,
Collaboration Development
recommends and implements
Enabler technology to enable quantum
leap in business capability

Data
Provider works with others to develop a Test and Pre-
Partner service and provide resources/skills Intensive
Production Trad
B e n e f it

necessary to support the service
Processing
Provider of a quality service at a cost equal to or IT Private Public
Utility lower than the competition

Commodity
Provider of an adequate service at a cost lower Hybrid
than the competition
Database ERP
Cost
High

4 5 6
Analyze Infrastructure
Assess Risks Build Roadmaps
Gaps
Determine ROI
01. IT Host Resources Bus iness Arc hit ect ure Provide a baseline of agreement by D oc ument busines s directi ons
and I T’s ali gnment wit h t hem,
Devel op and implement enterprise-wide
Alignment educating all stakeholders on t he business architecture initiatives

A rc hi te c tur e
ac ross t he ent erprise

En ter pri s e
fundamentals of Ent erprise Archi tec ture

03. IT Storage Resources Informat ion Sys tems
Architecture
As sess t he existi ng IS A rchitecture f or a
select ed set of LOBs
Dev elop an overall IS enterpris e archit ec ture
framework t o guide the enterpri se
Develop and execut e an IS Architecture
roadmap ac ross the ent erprise

04. IT Network Resources
Pilot Metadata int egration with key t ools and Document business gl oss ary into met adata

M an ag em e nt
M a s te r D a ta
Metadata Develop met adat a t ec hnical st rategy
applications repos itory for s ome LOBs

02. IT Distributed Resources Est ablish a cros s-f unctional I nformation
Define and document common semant ics
D ata Model Establi sh data entit y naming s tandards (business glos sary) across LOBs f or some
Archi tec ture (D at a Adminis tration) t eam
s ubjec t areas

Enterprise Extend the inf ormation integration Integrate informat ion transf ormation
Exploratory Departmental Exclusive Open I nformation

Info rm ati on
Define t he informati on integration

In teg ra tion
architecture across the with common met adat a and data
Integration Transformation architec ture
organization & tec hnol ogies cl eans ing serv ices

Scope of services
Extend the Informat ion Integrat ion Optimize data & c ontent Int egrate data plac ement with the
I nf ormation Plac ement
Identify required Develop roadmaps & Structure
Architecture f or placement &
s truct ure optimization
pl acement and s truct ure across all
LOBs & technology silos
I nf ormation Lif ecy cle Management
implementation
Assess current state Determine future state capabilities and initiatives

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4


Segmentação do portfolio em níveis de criticidade
Yes
A maioria dos clientes possuem nível de
Nivel 3 Nivel 1 criticidade 4 e relativamente poucas aplicações
Estratégia

em nível 1;
Começe migrando suas aplicações do nível 4
Nivel 4 Nivel 2 para o ambiente de Cloud movendo primeiro as
aplicações de menor risco;
No
Utilize a expertise adquirida no primeiro momento
No Yes
para migrar aplicações de níveis mais
Criticidade estratégicos.
Nível 4 Nível 3 Nível 2 Nível 1

Classe da Aplicação Não estratégica ou crítica Estratégica mas não crítica Alta criticidade Chave - Mais crítica

Distribuição 55% 20% 20% 5%

Disponibilidade Menor que Médio Alto Muito Alto
95% 95-98.5% 98.5-99.7%

Perfil de dados Non-sensitive or public Apenas uso interno Confidencial da empresa Informações pessoais

Suporte Melhor suporte Horas de Negócios 24*7 24*7

Monitoração Sem monitoração Servidor básico Infraestrutura Nível de Aplicação


Portfolio IBM

Analytics Colaboração/ Desenvolvimento Desktop e Infra-estrutura Business
Monitoração / e Teste Dispositivos (compute / storage Services
Segurança / BPM / Integração)
Modelo de Serviço
Software como Serviço
SaaS Lotus Live/ Tivoli Live/ IBM Cloud Service
Blueworks Live/ Rational Provider Platform

Plataforma como Serviço
PaaS Smart Analytics System
Powered by Infosphere
Security Services /
Blueworks Live /
Smart Business
Development and Smart Business
Server Cloud /
WebSphere IBM Cloud Service
Networking Test Cloud Desktop Cloud Cloudburst / Cast Iron Provider Platform

Infra como Serviço
IaaS Smart Analytics
Accelerator
IBM Managed IBM Smart Cloud Smart Business
IBM Cloud Quick
Start / Server / IBM Cloud Service
Security Services Enterprise Desktop Cloud Storage
Powered by Infosphere Provider Platform

e mais… Consultoria, Workshops, Arquitetura de Referência para desenvolvimento Cloud2012 IBM Corporation
© Computing


1. Cloud Computing
2. Social Business


O que acontece na Internet em apenas 1 minuto!


E se o Facebook fosse um país?

200 mi 800mi


Crescimento das Midias Sociais
% of Time Spent, Worldwide

Social Networks
Facebook, YouTube

Informational /
Services
Yahoo, MSN, Google

Yahoo MSN Google YouTube Facebook


2009
English gets 1.000.000 words
on Wednesday, site says
June 10, 2009 -- Updated 1328 GMT
(2128 HKT)
Which
is the
New English words real
Web 2.0: the second generation of the world?
Internet

n00b: a new or inexperienced user,
usually with technology

Jai Ho: an exclamation of victory, from Hindi

slumdog: an unkind term for a person who
lives in a slum

cloud computing: services delivered via
the Internet

carbon neutral: an activity that doesn't
produce heat-trapping carbon emissions

Source: Global Language Monitor june 2009


Quem é esta geração digital?

Usam tecnologias digitais no seu dia a dia e esperam usá-las no trabalho.
São early adopters por natureza.

Entram no mundo online cada vez mais cedo... usam a Internet como
laboratório social, para testar limites do relacionamento.

Vivem em ritmo cada vez mais acelerado e são multitarefas (usam celular,
MP3, PC...tudo ao mesmo tempo!)

Social Business - Social collaboration is changing the way business
is being conducted
Defined
“A Social Business isn't just a company that has a
Facebook page and a Twitter account. A Social Business
is one that embraces and cultivates a spirit of
collaboration and community throughout its
organization—both internally and externally.” – IBM

“With 1.2 billion people on social networks, 20 percent of
the world’s population, social computing is in its next
phase. IT leaders must immediately incorporate social
software capabilities throughout their enterprise
systems.” – Gartner

“2011 has seen rapid expansion of business change that
is being driven by the social customer, empowered
employees, and a convergence of new technical
capabilities. Businesses are deploying and using new
social tools at an ever-increasing pace” – IDC

“New mass collaboration capabilities are irreversibly
redefining what it means to be a highly productive
organization” – Gartner


Mobile explosion

“By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the
most common Web access device worldwide”
Source: Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2010 and Beyond:
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1278413

Researchers reported that time spent on apps began to outpace
time spent on the desktop or mobile Web

BY 2015 mobile application development projects targeting
smartphones/tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratio
of 4-1


UMA NOVA GERAÇÃO


UMA NOVA FAMÍLIA

A NOVA CASA
O NOVO PAI
A NOVA MÃE
O NOVO FILHO


UM NOVO AMBIENTE DE TRABALHO

A NOVA ORGANIZAÇÃO
O NOVO CHEFE
O NOVO ESCRITÓRIO
A GLOBALIZAÇÃO


Mobile Computing will impact all business processes, requiring new
application solutions written just for mobile

New Strategies / Solutions Needed
“Second generation mobile strategies differ considerably from those of the
first generation. They must be multichannel, part of your holistic digital
strategy, and include innovative mobile-only capabilities.” – Gartner

“Mobile business is the number one IT issue pre-occupying the minds of IT
professionals in Asia/Pacific, according to IDC's CIO Innovation Survey
2011. ” – IDC

“By 2015, mobile Web technologies will have advanced sufficiently, so that
half the applications that would be written as native apps in 2011 will
instead be delivered as Web apps. ” – Gartner

IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report


The Consumerization trend is all about employees wanting to use the
same technologies for business as they use in their personal lives.
It’s more than “Bring Your Own Device”
Technologies
“The consumerization of IT—the influence that personal devices, Impacted by
the app store paradigm, gaming, social tools and more have on Consumerization
the expectations of employees and customers for workplace
tools and innovation—is on a trajectory of blazing growth.'” – IDG • Tablets
Press Release • Smartphones
• App Stores
• 4G
“Employees are behaving more like consumers, demanding a • Social Media
wider choice of devices, exploiting consumer devices and • Social Business
applications from app stores, and adopting new strategies such • Gaming
as “bring your own” IT. As a result, the distinctions between a • Desktop Virtualization
person's role as an employee and as a consumer are more • Cloud Services
blurred than ever. ” – Gartner • Unified Communications
• Data Access
• File Sharing
“You can blame the iPhone, Salesforce.com, and Facebook,
but the truth is that business itself has driven the shift to
employee-directed tech” – InfoWorld



1. Cloud Computing
2. Social Business


Competing on Analytics with Big data is big news


Volume of Digital Data
Every day, 15 petabytes of new information are
being generated. This is 8x more than the
information in all U.S. libraries.


Variety of Information
Today, 80% of new data growth is unstructured
content, generated largely by email, with
increasing contribution by documents, images,
and video and audio

38% of email archiving decisions receive input
from a C-level executive and 23% from
legal/compliance professional


The Big Data trend presents a huge challenge (and opportunity) for
Information Management professionals
Characteristics of Big Data

“Variety – Big data extends beyond structured data,
including unstructured data of all varieties: text, audio,
video, click streams, log files and more.
Velocity – Often time-sensitive, big data must be used
as it is streaming in to the enterprise in order to
maximize its value to the business.
Volume – Big data comes in one size: large. Enterprises
are awash with data, easily amassing terabytes and
even petabytes of information.” – IBM

A New Era of Information Management

“Clearly, the big data revolution is fostering a powerful new type of data science. Having more
comprehensive data sets at our disposal will enable more fine-grained long-tail analysis,
microsegmentation, next best action, customer experience optimization, and digital marketing applications”
– Forrester

“The ideal enterprise data warehouse has been envisaged as a centralized repository for 25 years, but the
time has come for a new type of warehouse to handle "big data." This "logical data warehouse" demands
radical realignment of practices and a hybrid architecture of repositories and services” – Gartner


New “Big Data” Brings New Opportunities, Requires New Analytics
Exa Homeland Security
600,000 records/sec, 50B/day
Up to
10,000 1-2 ms/decision
Times 320TB for Deep Analytics
Peta larger
Data Scale

Telco Promotions
Tera 100,000 records/sec, 6B/day
Data at Rest

10 ms/decision
Data Scale

270TB for Deep Analytics

Giga
DeepQA
100s GB for Deep Analytics
Traditional Data 3 sec/decision
Mega Warehouse and
Business Intelligence
Up to 10,000
Data in Motion times faster Smart Traffic
250K GPS probes/sec
Kilo
630K segments/sec
yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs
2 ms/decision, 4K vehicles
Occasional Frequent Real-time
Decision Frequency

Successful implementation of analytics capabilities provide value
and can help companies create a competitive advantage

How Organizations Use Analytics Analytics & Competitive Advantage

Source: The New Intelligent Enterprise, a joint MIT Sloan Management
Review and IBM Institute of Business Value analytics research
partnership. Copyright © Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2011.

“Leaders of the smartest organizations
have moved past “overwhelmed” and
IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report are already capitalizing on increased
information richness and analytics to
gain measurable competitive
advantage.” – MIT


Analytics is a major trend that is impacting all business processes
and transforming the way decisions are made
Trends in Analytics Types of Analytics Source: Forrester

From To
Offline / Back office Embedded / Realtime
Detailed Reports Dashboards
Historical Predictive
Structured Unstructured
Behind Firewall Cloud / Mobile

“In 2011 and 2012, analytics will increasingly focus
on decisions and collaboration. The new step is to
provide simulation, prediction, optimization and
other anlytics, not simply information, to empower
even more decision flexibility at the time and place
of every business process action.” - Gartner

“What is becoming clearer is that the real value from 'Big Data' will be derived from the high-end analytics,
predominantly using data mining, statistics, optimization and forecasting type of capabilities to proactively
turn this data into intelligence to drive business benefits and better decision making capabilities” – IDC


Traditional approaches are broken: Big data overwhelms traditional solutions


Let’s simplify this mess …


… and bring analytics into the warehouse


What is an Appliance?

Dedicated device
Optimized for purpose
Complete solution
Standard interfaces
Easy installation
Easy operation
Easy management
Easy support
Low cost


Mensagens
Finais


IT Strategy for the next decade:
an evolution of today‘s focus topics

IT Service Provider “IT as a function of the business“

Data ...
Management
SOA
Service Appliances Big Data
Management
on demand Virtualization Cloud Analytics
Consolidation Mobility
Collaboration
Automation
Cost Pressure Operational Excellence
Service Quality
Open Source Cyber Crime Social Media
Data Center
Optimization Prevention
IT Security Smart Devices
...


Pulling it All Together: The Technology Frontiers
Computing Everywhere Natural Interfaces New Computing
and in Everything and Connectivity Paradigms
In Us Bio-Inspired Quantum
Touching Computation Computing
Us
Near
re

Us Nature Biology
tu

Bio-electronic Work and
Fu

Devices Leisure
Far
From Us Sensory Computing Neuromorphic and
(voice, movement, natural sensing, etc) Cognitive Computing
Sensory
Devices
t
en

Computing without Programming
Embedded
Non Von Neumann Architectures
es

Touch
+
Pr

Smarter Era Computing
(The Next Frontier)
Mobiles Von Neumann Architectures

Fetch-> Decode -> Execute
PCs/Tablets
Keyboard
Mobile Computing Era
(Current Dominant Entry
Paradigm)
Servers

54

Pulling it All Together: The Technology Frontiers
Computing Everywhere Natural Interfaces New Computing
and in Everything and Connectivity Paradigms
In Us Bio-Inspired Quantum
Touching Computation Computing
Us
Near
re

Us Nature Biology
tu

Bio-electronic Work and
Fu

Devices Leisure
Far
From Us Sensory Computing Neuromorphic and
(voice, movement, natural sensing, etc) Cognitive Computing
Sensory
Devices

IT Becomes Invisible
t

Cognitive IT
en

Computing without a Program
Embedded
Non Von Neumann Architectures
es

Touch
+
Pr

Smarter Era Computing
(The Next Frontier)
Mobiles Von Neumann Architectures

Fetch-> Decode -> Execute
PCs/Tablets
Keyboard
Mobile Computing Era
(Current Dominant Entry
Paradigm)
Servers

55

Futuro se torna passado rapidamente!


Cezar Taurion
ctaurion@br.ibm.com
www.ibm.com/developerworks/blogs/page/ctaurion
www.computingonclouds.wordpress.com
www.debatendobigdata.wordpress.com
@ctaurion
Facebook, Linkedin, BranchOut

Obrigado pela Atenção

, 2012 © 2012 IBM Corporation

Palestra "Technology Trends To Watch In 2012 and beyond"

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