TI em 2020

TI 2020:
Os desafios e o novo papel de TI e dos CIOs

Cezar Taurion
Technical Evangelist
ctaurion@br.ibm.com

© 2012 IBM Corporation
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Commodity

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Computadores em lugares antes inimagináveis…

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As coisas acontecem muito rapido no mundo cada vez mais
hiperconectado

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Quem é esta geração digital?

Usam tecnologias digitais no seu dia a dia e esperam usá-las no trabalho.
São early adopters por natureza.

Entram no mundo online cada vez mais cedo... usam a Internet como
laboratório social, para testar limites do relacionamento.

Vivem em ritmo cada vez mais acelerado e são multitarefas (usam celular,
MP3, PC...tudo ao mesmo tempo!)
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14 © 2012 IBM Corporation
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Uma nova família

A NOVA CASA
O NOVO PAI
A NOVA MÃE
O NOVO FILHO

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Um novo ambiente de trabalho

A NOVA ORGANIZAÇÃO
O NOVO CHEFE
O NOVO ESCRITÓRIO
A GLOBALIZAÇÃO

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TUDO EM
TEMPO REAL

TECNOLOGIA
PERVASIVA E
COMPUTAÇÃO
SOCIAL
A SOCIEDADE
CONECTADA

UMA NOVO
UMA NOVA
AMBIENTE DE
GERAÇÃO
TRABALHO © 2012 IBM Corporation
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A 3ª geração da plataforma de computação, a 3ª fase da Internet,
e a explosão de informações estão colidindo para formar uma revolução de
ruptura e de transformação

Fases da
Internet
Inter
net
Web
2.0
Web
Mobi
3 . 0 (C
lo
le, Socia ud,
l)
1964 1981 1994 2003 2008 2012
2020-2
s,
tphone
s (Smar
Gerações de
obile Device
plataformas M
, etc)
Tablets
Computacionais
Ser ver /PC
Client Quantidade de
dados coletados e
ame armazenados
Mainfr

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Quatro tendências estão mudando inteiramente
muitas indústrias e o próprio mercado de TI

Mobilidade Cloud Big Data Social

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Consumerization of IT – New paradigm

The Consumerization trend is all about
employees wanting to use the same
technologies for business as they use
in their personal lives.

Company acquisition

User acquisition

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Consumerization of IT – Trend Overview
“Consumerization … describes the trend for new information technology to emerge first in the
consumer market and then spread into business organizations, resulting in the convergence of the IT
and consumer electronics industries, and a shift in IT innovation from large businesses to the home” –
Wikipedia

Drivers
• consumer mobile computing
• consumer social media
• remote and mobile workforce
• rise of corporate social business

Challenges
• CIOs must be flexible and provide new ways for employees to access corporate applications from their
own personal devices.
• Have to support different devices, platforms, carriers and countries
• Secure access to corporate data

Implications
• IT departments have to accommodate more and more demands placed upon their services while keeping
corporate systems secure
• The line between business and person continues to blur
• Consumerization is a major, transformational trend with significant impact on business processes business
and IT services market
“By 2016, more than 900 million tablets will be in the hands of users. As more consumers buy them, they then
tend to bring them to the workplace and use them for their jobs – often led by executives” – Gartner
22 IM AR © 2012 IBM Corporation
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Mobile innovation is slated to be the next big wave in computing

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Mobile explosion

“By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the
most common Web access device worldwide”
Source: Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2010 and Beyond:
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1278413

Researchers reported that time spent on apps began to outpace
time spent on the desktop or mobile Web

BY 2015 mobile application development projects targeting
smartphones/tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratio
of 4-1

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Mobile Computing will impact all business processes, requiring new
application solutions written just for mobile

New Strategies / Solutions Needed

“Second generation mobile strategies differ considerably from those of the
first generation. They must be multichannel, part of your holistic digital
strategy, and include innovative mobile-only capabilities.” – Gartner

IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report

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Gartner’s hype cycle for emerging technologies has progressed Cloud
closer to mainstream adoption over the past few years

Gartner has progressed Cloud
further to the right of the emerging
technologies hype cycle, indicating
that cloud is moving closer to
mainstream adoption

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging
Technologies, 2009

Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging
Technologies, 2011
Source: MD Market Analysis, Gartner
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IT and Business are attracted to cloud for different reasons.

IT is drawn to cloud’s cost, efficiency and control…

of CIOs plan to use cloud—
up from 33% two years ago.

Transformation
Efficiency

of business executives believe cloud
enables business transformation and
leaner, faster, more agile processes.

…while business users are drawn to cloud’s simplified,
self-service experience and new service capabilities.
2011 IBM CIO Study, London School of Economics, December 2010

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Cloud is a real Paradigm Shift

Value delivered From traditional To cloud
Change management Months Days or hours

Test provisioning Weeks 20 minutes

Install database 1 day 12 minutes
Install of operating system 1 day 30–60 minutes

Provisioning environment ▄ 51% cost savings
Design and deploy business applications Months Days/Weeks

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Envisioning the full potential of cloud requires organizations to
challenge existing approaches in their business and industry

Reflecting on your business, question yourself – “What you would do if…

… you had access to
unlimited computing
resources to scale your
business?

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… you could reach hitherto
unaddressed customers or
unlimited computing
markets and target them based on
their individualized preferences
business?
through analytical insights?

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unlimited computing
business?

…you could give any of your
customers access to any of
your products and services
anytime, anywhere, on any
device?

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unlimited computing
business?

device?

… you could inexpensively
and rapidly develop and
launch new product & service
offerings?

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unlimited computing
business?

…you could redefine your
role in your industry and
change your competitive
positioning?
device?

… you could easily and
seamlessly connect and
… you could inexpensively
collaborate with business
and rapidly develop and
partners and customers?
launch new product & service
offerings?

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Cloud harnesses the capabilities borne out of these trends to
empower six potentially “game changing” business enablers

Cloud’s Business Enablers

Business
2 Scalability
Cost Provides limitless, cost- Market
1 Flexibility effective computing capacity 3 Adaptability
to support growth
Shifts fixed to variable cost Faster time to market
Pay as and when needed Supports experimentation

Ecosystem Masked
6 Connectivity 4 Complexity
New value nets Expands product sophistication
Potential new businesses Context-driven Simpler for customers/users
5 Variability
User defined experiences
Increases relevance

Source: IBV Analysis
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Escalability + Cost Flexibility

A projected US$ 21 million cost physical supercomputer,
versus a 50.000 core cloud virtual supercomputer in a
public cloud running a 3 hour simulation with a cost of
US$ 4.828,85 per hour to run.
°
During these 3 hours It was the 42° fastest
supercomputer in the world.

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What is coming?

In 2021, cloud computing is simply computing,
corporate office parks are senior housing facilities and
the IT organization of the future has been absorbed by
the business.
Internal IT becomes an internal cloud.
IT becomes a services broker.
IT will become a function of the business.
Gartner, 2011

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Big Data: Why we must move to a new era of computing

Volume Velocity Variety Veracity

Terabytes to Streaming data, Structured, Uncertainty from
exabytes of milliseconds to unstructured, inconsistency,
existing data seconds to text & multimedia ambiguities, etc.
to process respond

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New “Big Data” Brings New Opportunities, Requires New Analytics

Exa Homeland Security
600,000 records/sec, 50B/day
Up to
10,000 1-2 ms/decision
Times 320TB for Deep Analytics
Peta larger
Data Scale

Telco Promotions
Tera 100,000 records/sec, 6B/day
Data at Rest

10 ms/decision
Data Scale

270TB for Deep Analytics

Giga
DeepQA
100s GB for Deep Analytics
Traditional Data 3 sec/decision
Mega Warehouse and
Business Intelligence
Up to 10,000
Data in Motion times faster Smart Traffic
250K GPS probes/sec
Kilo
630K segments/sec
yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs
2 ms/decision, 4K vehicles
Occasional Frequent Real-time
Decision Frequency
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Big Data: This is just the beginning

100
Sensors
9000
& Devices

8000 Percentage of

Percent of uncertain data
80

uncertain data
Volume in Exabytes

7000
60

6000 Social
Media
5000 40

4000
You are here
VoIP
20

3000 Enterprise
Data
0

2010 2015

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Big Data no futuro? Que tal olharmos o Watson?

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A evolução das “Máquinas Pensantes”
The New IT Frontier

“Within ten years a digital Learning
computer will be the world's Systems
Computer Intelligence

chess champion” 1958,
H. A. Simon and Allen Newell

Watson
(2010)

Deep Blue
(1997)

System/360
(1964)
ENIAC
Abacus Antikythera Napier’s rods Counting (Circa 1945)
(Circa 3500 BC) Astronomical (Circa 1600) Machine
Computer (ca 87 BC) (Circa 1820)

Time
50
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Era da tecnologia Pervasiva e Computação Social

Social

Internet

PCs

Departmental

Mainframe

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Social Business - Social collaboration is changing the way business
is being conducted
Defined
“A Social Business isn't just a company that has a
Facebook page and a Twitter account. A Social Business
is one that embraces and cultivates a spirit of
collaboration and community throughout its
organization—both internally and externally.” – IBM

“With 1.2 billion people on social networks, 20 percent of
the world’s population, social computing is in its next
phase. IT leaders must immediately incorporate social
software capabilities throughout their enterprise
systems.” – Gartner

“2011 has seen rapid expansion of business change that
is being driven by the social customer, empowered
employees, and a convergence of new technical
capabilities. Businesses are deploying and using new
social tools at an ever-increasing pace” – IDC

“New mass collaboration capabilities are irreversibly
redefining what it means to be a highly productive
organization” – Gartner

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Juntando tudo: As fronteiras da Tecnologia
Computing Everywhere Natural Interfaces New Computing
and in Everything and Connectivity Paradigms
In Us Bio-Inspired Quantum
Touching Computation Computing
Us
Near
re

Us Nature Biology
tu

Bio-electronic Work and
Fu

Devices Leisure
Far
From Us Sensory Computing Neuromorphic and
(voice, movement, natural sensing, etc) Cognitive Computing
Sensory
Devices
t
en

Computing without Programming
Embedded
Non Von Neumann Architectures
es

Touch
+
Pr

Smarter Era Computing
(The Next Frontier)
Mobiles Von Neumann Architectures

Fetch-> Decode -> Execute
PCs/Tablets
Keyboard
Mobile Computing Era
(Current Dominant Entry
Paradigm)
Servers

56
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Juntando tudo: As fronteiras da Tecnologia
Computing Everywhere Natural Interfaces New Computing
and in Everything and Connectivity Paradigms
In Us Bio-Inspired Quantum
Touching Computation Computing
Us
Near
re

Us Nature Biology
tu

Bio-electronic Work and
Fu

Devices Leisure
Far
From Us Sensory Computing Neuromorphic and
(voice, movement, natural sensing, etc) Cognitive Computing
Sensory
Devices
t

TI torna-se invisivel TI Cognitiva
en

Computing without a Program
Embedded
Non Von Neumann Architectures
es

Touch
+
Pr

Smarter Era Computing
(The Next Frontier)
Mobiles Von Neumann Architectures

Fetch-> Decode -> Execute
PCs/Tablets
Keyboard
Mobile Computing Era
(Current Dominant Entry
Paradigm)
Servers

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For the first time, CEOs identify technology as the most important
external force impacting their organizations

External forces that will impact the organization

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
71%
Technology factors
69%
People skills
68%
Market factors

Macro-economic factors

Regulatory concerns

Globalization

Socio-economic factors

Environmental issues

Geopolitical factors

Source: Q1 “What are the most important external forces that will impact your organization over the next 3 to 5 years?”
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IT Strategy for the next decade:
an evolution of today‘s focus topics

IT Service Provider “IT as a function of the business“

Data ...
Management
SOA
Service Appliances Big Data
Management
on demand Virtualization Cloud Analytics
Consolidation Mobility
Collaboration
Automation
Cost Pressure Operational Excellence
Service Quality
Open Source Cyber Crime Social Media
Data Center
Optimization Prevention
IT Security Smart Devices
...

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A shift is taking place from delivering IT outcomes to delivering business
outcomes
“From Cost Center to Profit Center”
The transformation of IT from a cost center to a profit
Business outcomes center does not happen overnight. It requires a well
thought out strategy and implementation.
Increase business revenue
Source: dynamicCIO.com, C R Narayanan, Dec 20, 2011
Reduce business cost

Align with enterprise’s
business outcomes “IT Value Is Dead. Long Live Business Value.”
Business outcomes from technology investments are all
that really matter. The CIO’s challenge is finding new
ways to prove IT’s worth.
Value

Source: CIO.com, Stephanie Overby, May 12 , 2011

IT outcomes

Reduce IT cost
Top 10 Business Priorities 2014

Manage IT cost Increasing enterprise growth 1
Improving Operations 2
Attracting and retaining new customers 3

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Gartner, 2011 CIO Survey

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CIO: Chief Innovation Officer & Chief Digital Officer ou
Career Is Over?

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Coragem para sair da zona de conforto…

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Agir rapido, pois o futuro se torna passado rapidamente!

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Cezar Taurion
ctaurion@br.ibm.com
www.ibm.com/developerworks/blogs/page/ctaurion
@ctaurion
Facebook, Linkedin, BranchOut

Obrigado pela Atenção

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TI em 2020

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