The document discusses IDC Spain's top 10 predictions for 2012. It first reviews the accuracy of IDC's 2011 predictions, which included forecasts around economic uncertainty in Spain, the evolving role of CIOs, industry consolidation, growth of consumer technologies, social business adoption, data expansion, cloud computing adoption, and e-commerce growth. It then shifts to discussing predictions for 2012, with sections focusing on the need to reduce costs while improving relevance and excellence, the move from infrastructure-centric to user-centric models, and the broader context of the telecom CIO in light of shifting demand patterns.

1. IDC España
Top 10 Predictions 2012
Compitiendo por el futuro en un mercado
cada vez más complejo
Centro Innovación BBVA, Madrid
14 de diciembre de 2011
#prediccionesIDC
Copyright IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.

2. Agenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
© IDC Dec-11 2

3. Revisión de las predicciones de 2011
Predicción Mensaje Métrica Acierto
La incertidumbre se IDC pronosticó un TIC crecerán -1,5%, las TI el -
vuelve a instalar en crecimiento plano 3,5%
España en 2011
Chief Innovation vs Principios 2011, 60% CIOs
CIO vs CIO Intelligence vs criterio inversión max valor y
Information Officer min riesgo, finales un 68%
Vuelta a las raíces Reinvención de la HP - PSG, Nokia-Microsoft,
oferta para crear New Fujitsu, Google-Motorola,
estrategias de valor etc.
La demanda de Tecnología de En 2011, 3 millones más de
tecnología consumo consumo, media y conexiones móviles a internet
en eclosión contenidos frente a 1 millón desde el PC
Eclosión y guerra de TIC Prosumer vs Smartphones & tables han
los dispositivos de TIC crecido un 22% en España
consumo Consumerization
© IDC Dec-11 3

4. Revisión de las predicciones de 2011
Predicción Mensaje Métrica Acierto
Social Tecnologías para la El 14,7% de las empresas
Business coge productividad del puesto españolas tienen implantadas
velocidad de trabajo soluciones social business
Expansión del Mayor presión en la La información ha crecido más
Universo gestión de la información de un 50% en España
Digital
La batalla de La Nube se consolida - Más del 15% de las empresas
la Nube comienza la adopción españolas ya utilizan Cloud
Computing en 2011
Internet - Del bajo coste y la El negocio B2B y B2C ha
eCommerce desintermediación a crecido un 24%. +2 Millones
propuestas de valor de usuarios redes sociales.
El nuevo rol de Millones de conexiones y +2 Millones de líneas M2M en
la red redefinición del operador España en 2011
© IDC Dec-11 4

5. Agenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
© IDC Dec-11 5

6. The Essential Equation: Costs Have to be Reduced
While Expanding Market Relevance and Operational
Excellence
INDUSTRY
Revenue BASED
Infrastructure UC and collaboration
rationalisation NETWORK
and lower cost of BASED
delivery
Telecom market Increase
portfolio
and service
flexibility
Infrastructure
2000 2015
© IDC Dec-11 6

7. The Old "Inside-Out" Model Gives Way
to the "Outside-In"
Tablets
POP
PCs
CPE
Netbooks
Smart
metres
Televisions People
machine
© IDC Dec-11 7

8. Shifting demand patterns means a
Broader Context for the Telco CIO
T Tablet
Network
Infrastructure
E
Mobile
Own
Datacentre
L
IT
C TVs
Infrastructure
O
Third-Party
PCs
Infrastructure
and Services Smart
Metres
© IDC Dec-11 8

9. Balance of power shifting to the
Demand Side:
HOUSEHOLDS INDIVIDUALS BUSINESSES
Domestic Lifestyle individual: CIO opening up
household: preferred device(s), digital platform:
balancing household anywhere access balancing the need
members' demands, Brand for security and
budget, process with the
entertainment, consumerisation of
education devices, applications
Tension with egov and user behaviour
THINGS
vehicles, buildings, meters …
Embedding in process verticals
© IDC Dec-11 9

10. Spending by Users on Telecom
Services by Country
Turkey Germany
$ Billions $ Billions
CAGR CAGR
16 60
1% -2%
14
50
12
40
10 Mobile Data Mobile Data
Mobile Voice Mobile Voice
8
Fixed Data Spain 30
Fixed Data
6 Fixed Voice Fixed Voice
20
4 35 CAGR
2 30 -1% 10
0 25 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mobile Data
20
Mobile Voice
Russia 15
Fixed Data
Fixed Voice
Sweden
$ Billions $ Billions CAGR
10
CAGR 8
40
2% 5
-1%
35 7
0 6
30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
25 5 Mobile Data
Mobile Data
Mobile Voice Mobile Voice
20 4
Fixed Data Fixed Data
Fixed Voice 3 Fixed Voice
15
10 2
5 1
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: WW Telecom Services Database, 1H11
© IDC Dec-11 10

11. European Telecom Connectivity Market in Transition:
What’s up and what’s not!
WE Markets in Decline WE Markets Growing
$ Billions $ Billions
250 120
200 100
80
150
60
100
40
50
20
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TDM Voice Other Fixed Data Ethernet Mobile Data
Mobile Messaging Mobile Voice IP VPN Broadband
Source: WE Telecom Services Database, 3Q11
© IDC Dec-11 11

12. Fixed and Mobile Spending per Capita
(2011)
AU
CH
CA
NO
Fixed Spending per Capita
SG US
JP
DK
DE GB
FR AE
IT
ES
BR
FI
TW
KW
KR
CN Source: WW Telecom Services Database, 1H11
IN
Mobile Spending per Capita
© IDC Dec-11 12

13. Western Europe Client Devices Forecast shows shift to smart
phones as new dominant platform
Western Europe Client Devices Forecast
400
350
300
250
M Units
200
150
100
50
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Desktop Notebook Mini Notebook Media Tablet Feature Phone Smartphone
Sources: IDC EMEA PC Tracker Forecast Update Q2 2011 , IDC EMEA Media Tablet and eReader Forecast - Q2 2011, Worldwide Quarterly Mobile
Phone Tracker - 2011 Q2 - Forecast
© IDC Dec-11

14. The need for Unified communications
in the workplace
Security
© IDC Dec-11 14

15. With all of the digital components routes
to Market become critical
© IDC Dec-11 15

16. Key video trends drive consumer
choice
Digitization
? High definition
On demand Multiscreen
Multiplay Connected TV
Multiplatform competition
Plethora of choices allows personalized experience, but
also causes confusion and inconvenience
= opportunity for operators!
© IDC Dec-11 16

17. The ‘love/hate’ triangle:
partners and competitors
Device brand and service Mobile operators Established brands and free
brand contend with the Control over network performance service model trump
operator brand eg: Apple, Some control over the user experience operators’ own brands and
RIM (Blackberry) Subsidises and sells mobile handsets paid service model
Billing and customer care relationship
Purchasing power constrains Can make sure that mobile
vendors’ freedom over internet users see operators’
handset features, branding brands and services first
Extending device brands to
internet services
Eg: Apple (iTunes), Nokia (Ovi)
Device vendors Internet service brands
Control over device features
Established user base and brand loyalty
Control over out-of-box software/content
Established systems & processes
Some control over the user experience
Expertise in media-based models
Brand loyalty
Extending service brands to
devices
Eg: Google (Android),
Microsoft (Windows Live)
© IDC Dec-11 17

18. The Telco Advantage in the cloud Eco
system for business customers
Design
Consulting
Integration
Network
Build
Equipment
equipment Traditional IT service
providers pure-play positioning
Outsourcing
Managed
Services More advanced telecom
business provisioning
Run
Maintenance
Traffic Basic telecom
business positioning
Access
Hosting/
Desktop/ Business Business
Voice Data LAN WAN Data-
Mobile Apps Process
centre
Communication services IT/business services
© IDC Dec-11 18

19. Telcos are One of the Possible
Deliverers of the Final Service
MNC
SME
Consumer
Devices
© IDC Dec-11 19

20. Third Platform for Industry Growth
Social Big Data/
Business Analytics
Trillions
of “Things”
Mobile
Broadband
Mobile Cloud
Devices Services
& Apps
Billions Millions
of Users of Apps
2011
LAN/ Client-
Internet Server
Hundreds of Millions PC Tens of Thousands
of Users of Apps
1986
Millions Thousands
of Users of Apps
© IDC Dec-11

21. Agenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
© IDC Dec-11 21

22. La recuperación tendrá que esperar
¿Qué quiere ser europa?
Escenario 1: Escenario 2:
Mayor Integración Ruptura del Euro
© IDC Dec-11

23. ... Con riesgo de recesión
Índice R (Recesión)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Fuente: Google insigth
© IDC Dec-11

24. Mercado TIC en perspectiva
8%
4%
TI
TIC
0% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
C
-4%
-8%
© IDC Dec-11

25. La composicón del mercado
Software Software
IT Services IT Services
Hardware Hardware
2012
2011
Telecom services Telecom services
>50% -10% a -50% 0% a -10% 0% a 10% 10% a 50 % <50%
© IDC Dec-11

26. Zoom en el hardware
Client system Client system
2012
2011
Storage Storage
Server Server
system system
Network Network
equipment equipment
Periphrals Periphrals
& add ons & add ons
>50% -10% a -50% 0% a -10% 0% a 10% 10% a 50 % <50%
© IDC Dec-11

27. Zoom en ”Client systems”
Tablets & eReaders
Tablets & eReaders
Personal computer
Personal computer
2012
2011
Smartphones
Smartphones
>50% -10% a -50% 0% a -10% 0% a 10% 10% a 50 % <50%
© IDC Dec-11

28. 2012: Salto digital de los clientes…
LBS
Realidad aumentada
Usabilidad
Nueva era de
Medios de pago
Multitouch
Proliferación dispositivos
App. Móviles
Reconocimiento voz servicios de
Servicios cloud
B.A. Móvilmovimiento
Patrones consumo
© IDC Dec-11

29. 2012: punto de no retorno de …
+ Redes sociales
+ Adopción de Dispositivos
+ Barrera personal/profesional
•Infraestructura: Ruptura ciclo de vida
•Operaciones: Complejidad del soporte
•Estrategia: Mitigación de riesgos
© IDC Dec-11

30. Agenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
© IDC Dec-11 30

31. 4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase
de experimentación
© IDC Dec-11

32. 4- Social Business – Dejando atrás la fase
de experimentación
Nuevos
modelos de
negocio
Consistencia Cultura
Crece la
madurez en Las personas
Social son el centro
Business
Gestión
Conocimiento
© IDC Dec-11

33. 5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a
una realidad conectada
© IDC Dec-11

34. 5-Internet of Things – De la promesa a
una realidad conectada
Personas con
sensores
Nuevos
modelos de
Internet of negocio
M2M: el Things
pegamento
e-car
e-health
Smart grids
Dispositivos
inteligentes
© IDC Dec-11

35. 6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la
toma de decisiones
© IDC Dec-11

36. 6-Big Data – La disrupción llega a la
toma de decisiones
No Sí
Flujo continuo de datos
© IDC Dec-11

37. Agenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
© IDC Dec-11 37

38. 7-Las tecnologías inteligentes serán
verticales
© IDC Dec-11

39. 7-Las tecnologías inteligentes serán
verticales
#3 Vijay Govindarajan
“Reverse Innovation”
© IDC Dec-11

40. 8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de
la industria TIC
An innovation that is disruptive allows a whole new population of
consumers access to a product or service that was historically only
accessible to consumers with a lot of money or a lot of
skill. Characteristics of disruptive businesses, at least in their initial stages, can
include: lower gross margins, smaller target markets, and simpler products and
services that may not appear as attractive as existing solutions when
compared against traditional performance metrics.
#1 Clayton Christensen
“Disruptive Innovation”
© IDC Dec-11

41. 8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de
la industria TIC
Outsourced Public Cloud
Optimization
Low “Convergence” of
Greater Integration
Private to Public
Across Public Digital
Cloud Services”
Services Supply
Service Delivery
Key to Market
Supply Chain
Chain Elements
Inflexion
Public Partnership
Business
Greater Integration
(Private to Public)
Zero-
Across Cloud
Service Defect, Zero-Defect, Enablers
Types
Delivery Carrier Carrier-Class, to
Maturity Class,
Automated
Hybrid Automated
Service Market
Delivery Delivery Creation
Service Delivery
Supply Chain
Model
Ecosystem
Private Greater Integration
Across Private
Digital Services
Supply Chain Service
Low Elements
Delivery Model Key
2010 2020 SaaS (Operations)
Outsourced Private Cloud IaaS (Operations)
PaaS
Transformation and Optimization (Development)
TaaS (Testing)
© IDC Dec-11

42. 8-Cloud redefinirá la cadena de valor de
la industria TIC
#2 W. Chan Kim and
Renée Mauborgne
“Blue Ocean Strategy”
© IDC Dec-11

43. 9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la
transformación en tiempos complejos
© IDC Dec-11

44. 9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la
transformación en tiempos complejos
© IDC Dec-11

45. 9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la
transformación en tiempos complejos
© IDC Dec-11

46. 9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la
transformación en tiempos complejos
2010
17 meses
2011
19 meses
15% 1.8
Conversión Meses Interacción
Digital
42% 3.1 Exploración
Conversión Meses
22,5% 4.1 Contacto/SQL = 7%
Conversión Meses
31,5% Evaluación
3.5
Conversión Meses
50% 5.3 SQL/WIN = 22%
Conversión Meses Compra
44% 1.3 Interacción
Conversión Meses Personal
© IDC Dec-11

47. 9-Liderazgo tecnológico para la
transformación en tiempos complejos
Grupo
CIO Decisión
90’s Actualidad
Fuentes Fuerza Fuentes Fuerza
Independientes Comercial Independientes Comercial
© IDC Dec-11

48. Agenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
© IDC Dec-11 48

49. 4 Disruptive Forces Will Drive 2012 Growth
© IDC Dec-11

50. But They Are Connected to Each Other
The Third Platform for
IT Industry Growth & Innovation
© IDC
Copyright 2011 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights Dec-11
reserved.

51. 2012 Will Be About Competing for 2020
By 2020, when the ICT industry
reaches $5 trillion — $1.7
trillion larger than it is today —
at least 80% of the industry's
growth will driven 3rd Platform
technologies and solutions.
In 2012, battles to lead the
ICT marketplace of 2020 will
start to be won and lost.
© IDC
Copyright 2011 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights Dec-11
reserved.

52. Emerging Markets Impact Is Growing
Emerging markets will account for 28%
of global IT spending in 2012
14% growth over 2011
53% of all 2012 IT spending growth
China will pass Japan in IT spending
With 28% of emerging markets spend, and
2012 growth of almost 20%
Emerging markets products
and vendors will drive into
developed markets
IDC
© 2011 IDC Dec-11 6

53. In 2012, It Is Vital to Join the "Lead Pack"
2012 will be “like” 2011, but very different:
• Mobile devices will have won decisively
• Cloud platform battles will be in full force
• Social technologies will be a “must have”
• Big Data will be next essential capability
• Vertical competency will be at the core of
next-generation solutions
• Emerging markets are already the new
center of growth, driving new design points
• New players will no longer be “disruptors” Requires greater
• Incumbents will face “crossroads” moments urgency, to jump
aboard the third
platform, and
join the “lead
packs”
IDC
© 2011 IDC Dec-11 15

54. Agenda
Introducción Predicciones 2012 Conclusiones
© IDC Dec-11 54

55. © IDC Dec-11 55

56. Las cosas están cambiando
© IDC Dec-11 56

57. The Asia/Pacific IT Markets
Priority Geographies
Emerging Growth
Market Thai: $6.6B
9.4% Mal: $6.6B
Growth
9.1%
HK: $7B
8%
NZ: $4.2B
6.2%
Tai: $6.8B Advanced
6.1%
Market Size
© IDC Source: IDC vQ3 2010 APJ Blackbook, Nov 2010 (All data for 2011 in US$, 2011 YoY) Dec-11

58. Este puede ser el momento
más fascinante para estar
en esta industria.
¡Aprovechémoslo!
Copyright IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.

59. Sí, lo es…
Big Data
Enterprise MobileNext
Consumerization
Social Business
Cloud Computing Adoption Trends
LATAM
APAC
Oriente Medio
Europa del Este
Esto te hace responsable de
detectar cada oportunidad, de
liderar tu futuro.
© IDC Dec-11

60. Ghandi decía que no quería
seguidores, sino líderes.
IDC os puede ayudar a
liderar vuestro futuro
© IDC Dec-11

61. Assess Prepare Execute
Leverage IDC’s local and global Leverage IDC’s market research and local Leverage IDC’s brand and market
resources to help you better assess expertise to ensure your marketing is presence to enhance relationships by
your local market. For example: locally relevant and your sales teams can delivering value and resources in “sales
stand above their competitors. neutral” environments.
We can help you prioritize your target
markets with local data & guidance: We can increase industry and solution • Industry Workshops/Roundtables
• by Industry knowledge of your field sales force • Account-specific IT road-mapping
• by Geography • Industry Training Workshops • Customized account benchmarking
• by Technology • Bulletproofing sessions for messaging activities
• Installed Base, Growth, Forecasts • Understand KPI of influencers • Whitepapers/Thought-leadership
content
We can help you create a customized Our analysts have access that can help • Industry/geography specific case
local TAM you create deeper understanding of key studies
clients. Our strategic account profiling • Lead generation activities
We can help you understand the
competitive positioning of solutions can get deep into tier one accounts
• Business issues
We can help with local clustering and • Strategic initiatives
segmentation assessments • Influencers
© IDC Dec-11 61

62. La oferta de
IDC es muy amplia,
déjanos que te la
expliquemos con
detalle!
© IDC Dec-11 62

63. Feliz Navidad
y
Próspero Año 2012
© IDC Dec-11 63

64. #prediccionesIDC
© IDC Dec-11