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Strategic Foresight at Deutsche Telekom

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Strategic Foresight at Deutsche Telekom

  1. 1. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 113.08.2007Slides-for-lecture-Christopher-Schläffer.ppt 1 Strategic Foresight at Deutsche Telekom AG Presentation for the IRAHSS 08 René Rohrbeck, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
  2. 2. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 2 Content. 2 Continuous Strategic Foresight 1 Introduction 3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D 2.2 Product and Service Radar 2.1 Technology Radar 3.1 Methodology 4 Conclusion 2.3 Customer Foresight
  3. 3. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 3 The ICT industry has to reinvent itself.  Any software developer can offer complex servicesHorizontalization Shift of value distribution Market Liberalization  To value added services and devices  Decreasing revenues in core business Current influences on the ICT industry (examples)
  4. 4. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 4 Strategic Foresight is a set of tools for early identification and assessment of changes in the environment. Theoretical Foundation  Strategic management is characterized by a certain ignorance to changes happening outside their current business (Ansoff 1980)  Strategic discontinuities are announced by weak signals (Ansoff, et al. 1976 )  They have to be identified in the environment (Boizard 2005, Day/ Schoemaker 2005, Lesca/ Caron 1995)  They are usually fuzzyand unstructured (Krystek 2007)  “The search for weak signals is one where you do not know what you are looking for” (Liebl 2005) Weak Signals
  5. 5. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 5 create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view detect adverse conditions guide policy and shape strategy explore new markets explore new products and services Innovation Management Strategic Management Strategic Controlling Corporate Development Strategic Foresight Strategic Foresight creates a coherent and functional forward view.
  6. 6. In a fast moving environment it is essential to continuously scan for changes!
  7. 7. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 7 Content. 2 Continuous Strategic Foresight 1 Introduction 3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D 2.2 Product and Service Radar 2.1 Technology Radar 3.1 Methodology 4 Conclusion 2.3 Customer Foresight
  8. 8. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 8 Three major tools at Deutsche Telekom are examples for continuous scanning. Identification, assessment and anticipation of consumer needs, lifestyle and socio-cultural trends Customer Foresight Technology Radar Assessment of competitors and identification and assessment of products and service in development or available in lead markets Product & Service RadarP&S TR Identification, assessment and usage of information on emerging technologies and technological discontinuities Strategic Foresight
  9. 9. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 9 The Technology Radar gives a pre-evaluation of relevant up-coming technologies for DTAG.  Summary of technology intelligence findings  60 technologies with relevance for DT AG  Technologies are selected according to: - Relevance for DT AG - “Not yet covered inside DT AG”  Technologies are classified according to: - their development phase - technological area - relevance 3G-Femto-Cell A-IMS Audio Inf. Mgmt P2P TV Semantic Web Services Music Search Context Awareness in IMS Place-shifting Voice & Video over WLANRich Internet EPC Shared Wireless SocComp Web 2.0 RuBEE SOA 2.0 Quadruple Play Data Stream Mgmt UC Apps Supply Line Access SPEERMINT VoIP Peering Document Lifecycle Mgmt Virtual MIMO THz Data Comm User Centric Identity SPARQL InteractTV Internet Indirection SecureBlue Quantum Communications UICC Universal Chip for Cell Phones Desktop Videoconf WMM™ Power Save 60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set Network Coding Molecular Computing Network DRM SenseWeb IP Emergency Calls Internet Televisions VoiSearch MAGNET Beyond GENI Mobile Grid IP Header compression IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro) E-DRM Open (Source) Hardware Mobile Authoring HybridOptWi Image-based queries Kilocore Chips Remote Hardw. Mgmt Project Fastball 3-D TV Next Generation Customized cartoon OptIPuter Sentient Things 3G-Femto-Cell A-IMS Audio Inf. Mgmt P2P TV Semantic Web Services Music Search Context Awareness in IMS Place-shifting Voice & Video over WLANRich Internet EPC Shared Wireless SocComp Web 2.0 RuBEE SOA 2.0 Quadruple Play 3G-Femto-Cell3G-Femto-Cell A-IMSA-IMS Audio Inf. MgmtAudio Inf. Mgmt P2P TVP2P TV Semantic Web ServicesSemantic Web Services Music SearchMusic Search Context Awareness in IMSContext Awareness in IMS Place-shiftingPlace-shifting Voice & Video over WLAN Voice & Video over WLANRich InternetRich Internet EPCEPC Shared WirelessShared Wireless SocCompSocComp Web 2.0Web 2.0 RuBEERuBEE SOA 2.0SOA 2.0 Quadruple PlayQuadruple Play Data Stream Mgmt UC Apps Supply Line Access SPEERMINT VoIP Peering Document Lifecycle Mgmt Virtual MIMO THz Data Comm User Centric Identity SPARQL InteractTV Internet Indirection SecureBlue Quantum Communications UICC Universal Chip for Cell Phones Desktop Videoconf WMM™ Power Save 60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set Network Coding Molecular Computing Network DRM SenseWeb IP Emergency Calls Internet Televisions VoiSearch MAGNET Beyond GENI Mobile Grid IP Header compression IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro) E-DRM Open (Source) Hardware Mobile Authoring HybridOptWi Image-based queries Kilocore Chips Remote Hardw. Mgmt Data Stream MgmtData Stream Mgmt UC AppsUC Apps Supply Line AccessSupply Line Access SPEERMINTSPEERMINT VoIP PeeringVoIP Peering Document Lifecycle MgmtDocument Lifecycle Mgmt Virtual MIMO Virtual MIMO THz Data CommTHz Data Comm User Centric Identity User Centric Identity SPARQLSPARQL InteractTVInteractTV Internet IndirectionInternet Indirection SecureBlueSecureBlue Quantum CommunicationsQuantum Communications UICCUICC Universal Chip for Cell Phones Universal Chip for Cell Phones Desktop VideoconfDesktop Videoconf WMM™ Power Save WMM™ Power Save 60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set Network CodingNetwork Coding Molecular ComputingMolecular Computing Network DRMNetwork DRM SenseWebSenseWeb IP Emergency CallsIP Emergency Calls Internet TelevisionsInternet Televisions VoiSearchVoiSearch MAGNET BeyondMAGNET Beyond GENIGENI Mobile GridMobile Grid IP Header compressionIP Header compression IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro) E-DRME-DRM Open (Source) HardwareOpen (Source) Hardware Mobile AuthoringMobile Authoring HybridOptWiHybridOptWi Image-based queriesImage-based queries Kilocore ChipsKilocore Chips Remote Hardw. MgmtRemote Hardw. Mgmt Project Fastball 3-D TV Next Generation Customized cartoon OptIPuter Sentient Things Project FastballProject Fastball 3-D TV Next Generation3-D TV Next Generation Customized cartoonCustomized cartoon OptIPuterOptIPuter Sentient ThingsSentient Things DTAG Relevance High Medium Low Early identification of technologies, technological trends and technological shocks Classification within six technologies fields Technology Intelligence
  10. 10. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 10 The Technology Radar tracks individual technologies and overall technological trends. The Technology Radar - A Tool for Technology Intelligence at T-Labs Informing you about emerging technologies potentially effecting DT„s future business. Emerging Technologies Gathering in-depth information on one hot technology field from a research and business perspective. Technology Trend Reporting on actual activities on emerging technologies in DT. Activities Technology Intelligence
  11. 11. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 11 The Technology Foresight is based on an international network of scouts Selection Assessment DisseminationIdentification Technology Intelligence Source:Rohrbeck (2007) Technology Scouting - a case study on the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories Innovation Strategy CTOs and CMOs R&D and Product Manager International Scout Network uses sources in universities & industry ? ? ? ? ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ? ? ? ?
  12. 12. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 12 Mobile Internet Technology & Market The Product & Service RadarThe Technology Radar  …is identifying and assessing emerging technologies  …is published by the T-Labs  …is identifying and assessing emerging products and services  …is published by Corporate Product and Innovation The Product & Service Radar complements with a scan of start-ups‟ and competitors‟services.
  13. 13. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 13  Target groups create topic-specific (online) diaries over a predefined period of time  Pre-structuring of the diaries, e.g. referring needs/wants, usability requirements, drivers/barriers  Execution of (online) interviews in order to identify latent needs & barriers  Introduction & prioritization of new product/service functions (mini concepts²)  Laddering technique to derive means-end-chains (Online) Diary research (Online) Interviews Day in the life visits Insight clinic  Personal, direct interaction along different “insight” stations  Topic-specific design: e.g. product/service confrontation to identify barriers, group discussions to identify latent needs/ means-end-chains  Personal customer visits with cross-functional teams  Direct interaction with customers through observation and interviews  “User in the box”: Vivid documentation of ICT-infrastructure & usage patterns The Consumer Foresight contributes customer needs and socio-cultural trends at various stages. Further Reading: Leonard/Rayport 1995; Mrazek et al. 1995, 2 e.g. Durgee et al. 1998 Customer Foresight
  14. 14. Continuous scanning detects threats and opportunities. The most promising opportunities are then explored, assessed and planned for implementation.
  15. 15. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 15 Content. 2 Continuous Strategic Foresight 1 Introduction 3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D 2.2 Product and Service Radar 2.1 Technology Radar 3.1 Methodology 4 Conclusion 2.3 Customer Foresight
  16. 16. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 1616 Combination of scenario analysis and roadmapping allows linking R&D results with innovation and new business development. Environmental analysis Scenario development 21 Roadmap development Navigation board development 3 4 “The navigation board allows the continuous tracking of assumptions and the progress towards the favorable scenario” “The roadmap defines milestones and key developments needed, to reach the favorable scenario” “Multiple distinct scenarios reflect any possible future” “Identifying the key factors affecting the new business field” Source: Rohrbeck (2008) “Strategic Roadmapping - Strategic Planning of Innovation at Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.” EIRMA Working Group on Strategic Planning of R&D and New Business.
  17. 17. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 1717 The Environmental Scanning identifies all relevant factors that influence the new field. Environmental scanning  Factors that influence our core activities  Influencing factors from neighboring industries  E.g. IT-sector for the telecommunication industry  Areas which today have no connection to our current business,  but might have an important impact in the future Current Business Adjacent environment White spaces Technology Intelligence Political Foresight Consumer Foresight Competitor Foresight Current business Source: Rohrbeck (2008) “Strategic Roadmapping - Strategic Planning of Innovation at Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.” EIRMA Working Group on Strategic Planning of R&D and New Business.
  18. 18. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 1818 The Scenario Analysis provides three to six scenarios that represent any possible future. Alternative scenario Unfavorable scenario A Unfavorable scenario B  Description 1 2 3 4 Desired scenario  Description Description  Description Source:Rohrbeck (2008) “Strategic Roadmapping - StrategicPlanningof Innovationat Deutsche TelekomLaboratories.” EIRMA Working Group on StrategicPlanningof R&D and New Business. Multiple distinct scenarios
  19. 19. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 1919 A Roadmapping approach allows to integrate business scenarios with internal R&D results. 20122007 Timeline FunctionJ Own functional buildingblocks Needed functionalities Demand Products Aspect 1 Aspect 2 Platform 1 Platform 3 Aspect 3 R&D results Domain 2 Platform 2 Domain 1 Domain 3 Domain 4 Domain 5 FunctionA Building block A Building block C Building block B Building block D Building block E Building block G Building block F Building block H Building block I Building block J Building block LBuilding block K Building block M FunctionB FunctionC FunctionD FunctionF FunctionE FunctionG FunctionH FunctionI Current demand Tomorrow‟sdemand Current demand Tomorrow‟sdemand Current demand Tomorrow‟sdemand Where do we want to go? Which relevant technologies and capabilities do we control for competitive differentiation? Which additional ones do we need?
  20. 20. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 2020 A Navigation Board provides a management view on the progress and proposes interventions. Need for action Monitor closely as planned Indicator Current Status Needed status Proposed intervention Overall Status Key development A Key development C 6 >3 Key development B Key development D 1 <3 Key development E 5 <3  Intervention possibility 1  Intervention possibility 2  Intervention possibility 1  Intervention possibility 2  Intervention possibility 1  Intervention possibility 2  Intervention possibility 1  Intervention possibility 2  Intervention possibility 1  Intervention possibility 2  Comment 1  Comment 2 Which external and internal developments do we need to succeed in the new business? (Both internal and external) What should we do, if developments are not moving in the right direction!
  21. 21. Using scenario analysis with roadmapping is a strong way to explore and plan the future.
  22. 22. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 22 Content. 2 Continuous Strategic Foresight 1 Introduction 3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D 2.2 Product and Service Radar 2.1 Technology Radar 3.1 Methodology 4 Conclusion 2.3 Customer Foresight
  23. 23. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 23 After three years of foresight experience in the T-Labs we would like to share with you four lessons learned. Asuccessful Strategic Foresight activity…  is based on a deep understanding of the need of the decision maker  engages many internal and external partners  has a strong tool that enables effective collaboration  uses a balanced mix of qualitative and quantitative methods Four lessons learned from T-Labs
  24. 24. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 24 Thank you for your interest. http://futureorientation.net Conference on Strategic Foresight RenéRohrbeck DeutscheTelekom Laboratories Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin +49 30 8353 58536 (Tel) rene.rohrbeck@telekom.de www.rene-rohrbeck.de Personal contact http://rene-rohrbeck.de
  25. 25. Thank you very much for your interest!. René Rohrbeck, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
  26. 26. 27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 26 Further Reading. TechnologyRadar Technology Scouting Corporate Foresight Rohrbeck, R., J. Heuer, and H.M. Arnold. (2006) "The Technology Radar – an Instrument of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy" The 3rd IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology: Singapore, pp. 978-983 Paper Presentation Rohrbeck, R. (2007) "Technology Scouting - a case study on the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories" ISPIM-Asia Conference: New Delhi, India. Paper Presentation Rohrbeck, R. 2010. Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm. Heidelberg and New York: Physica- Verlag, Springer.

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