Ottimali tecnologie di gestione delle infrastrutture
•Download as PPTX, PDF•
0 likes•689 views
1) The document discusses optimal asset management technologies and data-driven asset management. 2) It highlights the need to properly invest in maintaining water infrastructure assets for future generations, as underinvestment can leave problems for the next generations. 3) WRc plc presents its asset management services, which use data analysis, predictive modeling, and other techniques to help utilities prioritize infrastructure investments and maintenance strategies.
Recommended
More Related Content
Similar to Ottimali tecnologie di gestione delle infrastrutture
Similar to Ottimali tecnologie di gestione delle infrastrutture (20)
More from Servizi a rete
More from Servizi a rete (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Ottimali tecnologie di gestione delle infrastrutture
- 2. Ing. Roberto Zocchi Ottimali tecnologie di gestione delle infrastrutture «Data driven asset management» European Business Director Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 3. Fine anni ‘80 (1988 – 1990) © Distric Metering, con brevetto di: - 1° modello matematico di rete (Watnet) - Data logger (rilievo dati) - Microcorrelatore (ricerca perdite) - Etc. etc.
- 4. maintenance holiday is an expensive short term thinking! ARE WE PROPERLY MAINTAINIG WATER SERVICES ASSETS FOR THE FUTURE GENERATIONS? ASSET RENEWAL (extimated) about €15/18 B PLANNED INVESTMENT (average 5 yrs) about €120/180 M/Year Rising Standards : 50/100 M€/Year – Serviceability : 50/80 M€/Year (0,4 – 0,5%???.....200 - 250 Years!) WE ARE LEAVING PROBLEMS TO NEXT GENERATIONS! (Water assets built rising the public debt of our Countries) ‘50 – ’70 POPULATION GROWTH – ECONOMIC BOOM ‘90 – Today RISING STANDARDS ‘70 – ’90 ENVIRONMENTAL AWARNESS (WW) ASSET NEED PROPER MAINTENANCE TO MAINTAIN THEIR SERVICEABILITY Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 5. INFRASTRUCTURE RENEWAL VALUE: 500 – 5.000€ pro-capita SERVICEABILITY INVESTMENTS: 5 – 60 € pro-capita/yr How many years? WE HAVE TO INVEST MORE DILEMMA (reference 3Ts)…. An artificially low level of water prices would not only lead to the depletion of water resources, but would fail to secure investments in infrastructure maintenance, leaving a heavy burden of investment for future generations EurEau Statement on «Rigth2water» ICE - 2014 DO WE PAY ON USE BASIS (TARIFF) DO WE PAY ON INCOME BASIS (TAXES) maintenance holiday is an expensive short term thinking! Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 6. Asset Management services © WRc plc 2018 ASSET MANAGEMENT Technology evaluation Asset resilience Customer services Pollution and flooding Leakage Innovation strategy Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 7. Deterioration modelling Condition assessment Predictive analytics Maintenance optimisation Whole life cost modelling Meter uncertainty analysis Flow balances Investment prioritisation ? Service failure risk profiling Social impact analysis Smart Networks Critical asset identification and location Wastewater treatment & disposal solutions Technology evaluation Innovation strategy CIP lining assessment Large scale facilities WRc Approved Asset Standards Failure analysis Laboratory facilities Operational services Expert Witness © WRc plc 2017 Area “Asset Resilience” Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 8. Deterioration modelling Whole life cost modelling Meter uncertainty analysis Flow balances Investment prioritisation ? Social impact analysis Smart Networks Wastewater treatment & disposal solutions CIP lining assessment Large scale facilities Failure analysis Laboratory facilities © WRc plc 2017 Area “Pollution and Flooding” CIPP QC Large sewer void detection PVC pipe deterioration Access chambers CESWI Blockage formation Flushables Septicity control Pitch fibre WRc Approved CIPP in rising mains Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 9. Deterioration modelling Condition assessment Predictive analytics Maintenance optimisation Estimating unmeasured customer demand Meter uncertainty analysis Flow balances Investment prioritisation ? Service failure risk profiling Social impact analysis Smart Networks Critical asset identification and location Leakage economics Technology evaluation Innovation strategy Trenchless technologies Large scale facilities WRc Approved Predicting the influence of weather Failure analysis Social data analytics Survey planning Workmanship improvement © WRc plc 2017 Area “Leakage Strategy” Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 10. Pianificazione e prioritarizzazione degli Investimenti basate su analisi di rischio © WRc plc 2017Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 11. Modellazione predittiva (Failures) Failure history of similar pipes: GLM 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒~ 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙, 𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ, 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟, 𝑗𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒, 𝑠𝑜𝑖𝑙 𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒, 𝑎𝑔𝑒 Failure history of nearby pipes: kriging Failure history of a particular pipe: Bayesian analysis 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Failures/km/annum Year installed CI DI SI ST © WRc plc 2018 Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 12. Assess and Address™ - Identificazione priorità investimenti da analisi di consistenza in campo Analyse Inspect TargetInvestigate Advise Investment prioritisation Feasibility assessment Implementation Locate Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 13. Modelli di costo per gli investimenti (basati su record di 40 anni di opex e capex dell’industrai idrica Britannica) © WRc plc 2018 TR61 is a collection of whole life cost and carbon estimating models for the construction, refurbishment / renovation and operation of water and sewage treatment and infrastructure assets provided in a single software program. WRc has also produced a range of complementary investment planning and intervention analysis tools for specific purposes, e.g. pipeline rehabilitation, pumps Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 14. Predizione delle influenze metereologiche © WRc plc 2017 Using classic approaches to modelling Using new approaches to modelling with equal analytical rigour • Influence of weather • Influence of level of ALC • Aids planning resources to deliver on leakage targets • Short term and long term planning Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 15. wrcplc.co.uk 15independent | trusted | innovative Asset data management and related functions within a utility company Corporate strategy Performance management Operational strategy Data insights Corporate data Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 16. wrcplc.co.uk 16independent | trusted | innovative Corporate strategy Performance management Operational strategy Data insights Corporate data Asset management solutions and support from WRc Asset data management and related functions within a utility company Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 17. wrcplc.co.uk 17independent | trusted | innovative Corporate strategy Performance management Operational strategy Data insights Corporate data Focus for Italy Asset management solutions and support from WRc Asset data management and related functions within a utility company Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 18. wrcplc.co.uk 18independent | trusted | innovative PRINCIPALI RISULTATI ATTESI • Definizione di un sistema di allerta per prevenire rotture catastrofiche delle tubazioni – definizione di manutenzione preventiva e proattiva; • Comprensione dell’impatto degli eventi climatici sulle infrastrutture per supportare la pianificazione a breve termine degli interventi di controllo perdite • Identificazione delle tubazioni critiche all’interno dei vari Distretti per Ottimizzare le attività di ricerca perdite e di sostituzione/riabilitazione delle tubazioni December2017 WRc riceve dati da ___ su 10 Distretti WRc inizia l’analisi dei dati e predispone l’approccio innovativo January2018 WRc presenta ad ___I risultati dell’analisi dei dati e la propria offertaJune2018 Avvio delle attività sui 150 Distretti di ______ December2018 Passi successivi: WRc e ______________ applicano le metodologie sviluppate in altri ambiti nel Gruppo ____e/o nel mercato Trasferimento delle procedure e metodologie sviluppate dal WRc per la definizione delle ottimali strategie di controllo delle perdite idriche e di gestione degli asset Data driven asset management applicazione in Italia Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 19. © WRc plc 2017 19independent | trusted | innovative Fase preliminare di fattibilità…(piccolo campione di dati sotto rigida confidenzialità) By bringing together datasets and using these together with information about internal and external factors, burst risk at different times of year can be identified, quantified and managed. Spring burst risk Late summer burst risk From office to field… Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 20. wrcplc.co.uk 20independent | trusted | innovative Subsoil temperature Air temperature Ground temperature Enhanced thermal gradient across pipe wall Frost loading Expansive soils AND GATE Bursts Running sands Void creation Collapse Leakage Joint expansion / contraction Compressible deposits Ground heave Joint failure Water table Soil chemistry Graphitisation Non-graphitic corrosion Diurnal variation in system pressure Average system pressure Transient The number of factors influence leakage and bursts, and the interactions between these can be complex. The diagram indicates the interactions for a number of external factors affecting collapse, bursts and leakage of pipelines. Seismic activity Seismic activity Analisi di tutti I fattori (dati) Interni ed Esterni Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 21. wrcplc.co.uk 21independent | trusted | innovative Task 1: Analisi di dettaglio in loco (visita tecnici WRc) Why is this important? We will be able to identify the real potential of the available data, to inform the future data strategy. We can identify how cutting-edge ______can be in its approaches to asset management. Mi dispiace, É solo che non ci possiamo fidare Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 22. © WRc 2018 22independent | trusted | innovative Task 2: Modellazione previsionale del rischio di rottura o scoppio di tubazioni Section of water network showing predicted failure risk (pipe colour); overlaid by soil corrosivity (shaded polygons) and burst locations (circles) Why is this important? We will deliver insight on how, where and when pipes are likely to break in the future to enable the future optimisation of alternative intervention options such as pipeline renewal, pressure control, and other proactive maintenance strategies to be objectively assessed. This will allow ACEA to develop robust, data-driven operational practices to improve KPI performance related to leakage and network reliability, and potentially find economic efficiencies. Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 23. © WRc 2018 23independent | trusted | innovative Task 3: Analisi e modellazione previsionale del consumo minimo notturno – migliore identificazione delle perdite Night flow data separated into explanatory variables. Different factors increase (blue) or decrease (red) the estimated night flow in a DMA Why is this important? We will provide greater certainty in the DMA water balance components. This can be used to derive better information on where and when leakage is likely to occur. This will provide better input data to operational and strategic planning of leakage resources, allowing ACEA to achieve their KPIs, such as number of repaired leaks and reported leakage, in a faster and more cost-effective manner. Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 24. © WRc 2018 24independent | trusted | innovative Task 4: Analisi previsionale dell’influenza delle variazioni metereologiche sulle perdite o sulle rotture Why is this important? Understanding the impact of weather on leakage delivers benefits to: • Short term operational planning of ALC resource, preparing for extreme weather events. • Long-term scenario testing of leakage performance commitments and demand-supply forecasting to test the response to extreme, or repeated weather events over a longer (e.g. 80 year) planning period Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 25. © WRc 2018 25independent | trusted | innovative Task 5: ALC - Verifica dell’efficacia delle squadre di ricerca perdite Why is this important? If ALC is used to reduce leakage levels, then quantification of this change will be able to be interrogated to assess the effectiveness of ALC and inform the operational strategy. This will allow ACEA to target the most cost-effective strategy to effectively reduce leakage. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Number of active teams Ml/person/hour scenario scenario_1 scenario_2 scenario_3 When considering the economic case for levels of ALC resource, a non-linear relationship must be assumed due to skill levels, and local knowledge of teams. Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 26. wrcplc.co.uk 26independent | trusted | innovative WRc work with _____to develop a data strategy to maximise insights and actionable intelligence across a range of KPIs, using an existing data infrastructure. Primo passo di un ottimale utilizzo di “big data” nel S.I.I. Verify water balance methodology Analyse the performance of pressure control systems Optimise asset intervention strategies Analyse water quality performance Consequence of asset failure assessment Examples of outputs… Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
- 27. WE HAVE TO INVEST MORE... AND BETTER!!! Torino, 13-14 Giugno 2018 Centro Ricerche SMAT
Editor's Notes
- We’d like to tell you a little bit about these services particularly, as we think you may be interested in them. However, we’d also be happy for you to play our game of ‘block busters’ and pick any other services that catch your eye or you may like to hear a bit about what we offer.
- We’d like to tell you a little bit about these services particularly, as we think you may be interested in them. However, we’d also be happy for you to play our game of ‘block busters’ and pick any other services that catch your eye or you may like to hear a bit about what we offer.
- We’d like to tell you a little bit about these services particularly, as we think you may be interested in them. However, we’d also be happy for you to play our game of ‘block busters’ and pick any other services that catch your eye or you may like to hear a bit about what we offer.
- This example for a water treatment works shows the result of the fault and event tree analysis. The analysis has been used to calculate an overall probability of service failure that takes into account current maintenance activities that mitigate risk beyond the do nothing scenario. The consequence of each of the types of service failure have been monetised using social value models – this is an area WRc is known for, and we are pleased to have recently been awarded a project working with the EIC, GDNs, GNOs and Water companies to explore the social value of network interventions. Bottom axis is fault tree This is size of problem Part way through process
- Striking similarity in leakage response from winter seasonal effects in water (blue dotted) and gas (red solid) networks. Differences are in summer where, in the water dataset, includes smaller summer PE failure peaks (joint movement in shrink/swell clays most likely failure cause/mode). This means that the same environmental variables that are important to water distribution – and have been modelled – are important to gas distribution networks. Perhaps obvious, given the nature of the pipework and its similar environment, but nevertheless useful validation. Model ‘individual pipes’ rather than cohorts because: Makes more efficient use of data (particularly continuous data) resulting in more accurate models Cohort models cannot tell the difference between 200 failures occurring on the same pipe, and 200 failures occurring on 200 separate pipes. This can result in misleading estimates of statistical significance – and hence inaccurate models Use the negative binomial distribution because: It is appropriate for count data, and in particular for data with lots of ‘0s’ (pipes that haven’t failed). This is obviously important for ‘individual pipe’ models. If using cohort models, probably don’t need the negative binomial distribution as most cohorts will include some failures. Predicted failure rates can be easily adjusted (using Bayesian statistics) to take into account the actual failure history of the pipe. Adjustments may be much more complicated and potentially require simulation if other distributions are assumed
- Analyse – risk analysis to target inspection Locate – asset and feature location Inspect – Rapid inspection of critical assets Target – Target detailed condition assessment Investigate – Carry out detailed condition assessment Advise – recommend cost effective remedial actions Investment prioritisation – Multi criteria assessment to rank remedial actions Feasibility assessment – bring in engineering judgement to identify practical implement plan
- TR61 software provides whole-life costs and carbon estimates for strategic investment planning, benchmarking own/other cost models; and gap-filling where models/estimates do not exist. Participants sign up to the TR61 ‘club’ every 2-3 years, contribute some of their own cost data (optional) and get new cost models developed and validated by WRc Participants steer the development of each new version Capex models developed since 1977, opex since 2008; now adding refurbishment cost models Software has been produced since 1998. Now developing TR61 v12 (8 participants so far); v11 had 13 subscribers. TR61 independently audited once every 4-5 years. Last audited 2012 by SMC
- It is important when using more complex modelling techniques that engineering and scientific validation is applied to the results to ensure there is physical reasoning and a logical explanation for any factors (or combinations of factors) identified as relevant. Hence our team for this task – in common with other proposed activities – includes subject matter experts as well as data scientists.
- It is important when using more complex modelling techniques that engineering and scientific validation is applied to the results to ensure there is physical reasoning and a logical explanation for any factors (or combinations of factors) identified as relevant. Hence our team for this task – in common with other proposed activities – includes subject matter experts as well as data scientists.
- Verify water balance methodology and water balance apparent losses estimates at a network and regional level Calibration of meter uncertainty using WRc’s database of meter testing results to quantify apparent losses Understand customer demand data and consumer profiling Analyse the performance of pressure control systems Pumping efficiency benchmarking / frontier analysis PRV asset health assessment Operational cost benchmarking PRV / pump station maintenance modelling Optimisation of asset intervention strategies Analyse water quality performance Identification of potential factors influencing water quality performance, customer complaints and sample concentrations Hotspot analysis Root cause analysis of water quality performance trends Consequence of asset failure assessment Hydraulic criticality analysis Event tree analysis of operational interventions Customer journey assessment