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The Future of Medical
Informatics: Follow the “W t
I f    ti    F ll   th “Watsons”
                               ”

 CITIH 2011 National Summit                       OSU Medical Center
 Columbus, OH                                          April 18, 2011


 Presented by:
            y
 Michael L. Millenson
 The Mervin Shalowitz, MD Visiting Scholar
 Kellogg School of Management &
 President, Health Quality Advisors, LLC
 mm@healthqualityadvisors.com


                                                                        0
                        Health Quality Advisors LLC
The Challenge of Transformation

“Science and
Technology
revolutionize our               Clinical                  Economic
lives, but memory,
tradition and myth
frame our
f
response.”
                                               Cultural
--Arthur
--Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.
                      Jr


                                                                     1
                      Health Quality Advisors LLC
The Difference Between
        Revolution and Reform

“A reform is a correction of abuses.

 A revolution i a t
       l ti is transfer of power.”
                    f    f       ”

  --Edward
  --Edward George Earle Bulwer-Lytton
               g        Bulwer- y




                                               2
                 Health Quality Advisors LLC
From Autonomy (Lucas Marsh*)…

                                     “To the average human his
                                     body is
                                     b d i a great and sacred
                                                     t d      d
                                     mystery. And the man who
                                     knows the riddle of that
                                     mystery is a god. That's
                                     what we are – gods. And
                                     the thing that holds us
                                     together as a group is our
                                     realization of this.”
                                   – Not As a Stranger (1954)

 *Idealistic hero of best-selling novel and movie, being spoken to
 by a cynical colleague
                                                                     3
                      Health Quality Advisors LLC
…to Accountability (Clay Marsh*)
                          Marsh )


“[Personalized medicine is] the process of the
rapid creation of systems and technologies that
deliver better health outcomes at lower costs and
personalize care and empower users in a
sustainable way ”
             way.


 *Real-life idealistic director of the Center for Personalized
 Health Care at The Ohio State University Medical Center

                                                                 4
                          Health Quality Advisors LLC
The Yellow Brick Road to
     InfoMedicine




   (Follow the Watsons)
                                     5
       Health Quality Advisors LLC
Information to Improve Expert
           Decisions

“The widespread use [of computers]...in
 The
hospitals and physicians' offices will
instantaneously give a doctor or a nurse a
patient's entire medical history, eliminating both
guesswork and bad recollection, and sometimes
making a diff
   ki      difference b t
                      between lif and d th ”
                               life d death.”
--Thomas
--Thomas Watson, Jr., Chairman of IBM (1965)




                                                     6
                  Health Quality Advisors LLC
“Data for You, Doctor”
“Modern communications systems…with their limitless
potential for storage, retrieval and transmission, bring without
our grasp such benefits as a nationwide clearinghouse of
medical records and case histories, available to every
physician at the dial of a number or the touch of a button.” –
Boisfeuillet Jones, Dept. of HEW, 1962

“A doctor considering a patient's diagnosis could
use…technology…to rapidly consider all the related texts,
reference materials, prior cases, and latest knowledge in
j
journals and medical literature….This could help medical
                                                p
professionals confidently determine the most likely diagnosis
and treatment options.” – IBM press release on its Watson
“Deep Question Answering” computer 2011
  Deep          Answering computer,
                                                              7
                       Health Quality Advisors LLC
Information to Improve All
      Stakeholder Decisions
 A value-based [health-care] system is grounded in
   value-       [health-
three simple principles:
1.  Value for patients
2.
2   Care organized around conditions and cycles
3.  Results measured
     Michael Porter & Elizabeth Olmsted Teisberg Harvard
                                        Teisberg,
     Business School, Redefining Health Care (2007)

 “In God we trust. All others bring data.”
 --W.
 --W. Edwards Deming, c. 1951

                                                     8
                  Health Quality Advisors LLC
Information Experts Share with
“Non-E
“Non
“N -Experts”
           t ”
“The physician-patient partnership is…an
 The physician-
intense collaboration between patient and
physician...[that is] informed by both the
medical facts and the physician's experience.”

--Timothy Quill
--Timothy Quill, MD and Howard Brody MD
                               Brody,
Annals of Internal Medicine


   Dr. (John) Watson reads the news to
   Sherlock Holmes in The Five Orange Pips

                                                 9
                   Health Quality Advisors LLC
Stage 1 Meaningful Use
“Data f Doctor, P ti t and System”
“D t for D t    Patient  dS t    ”




                                          10
            Health Quality Advisors LLC
New Dimensions of Clinical
                Information
                I f    ti

BIOMARKERS
                                               J
   Diagnosis
    • Presence of disease or
       identifying at-risk patients
                    at-
   Staging of disease (severity)
   Prognosis of disease (metastases)
   Stratification of patients
    • Responders/non-responders
       Responders/non-
   Monitoring/predicting toxicity
   Monitoring therapeutic effect or
   pharmacodynamic effect

                                                         James Watson c. 1957
                                                               Watson, c

                                                                                11
                           Health Quality Advisors LLC
Clinical Information “Off the Grid
                      Off     Grid”




                                          Thomas A. Watson, co-
                                          inventor of the telephone


                                                               12
            Health Quality Advisors LLC
Patient-
Patient-Generated Information:
Algorithms, AI
Algorithms AI, DNA and “crowdsourcing”
                        crowdsourcing




                                           13
             Health Quality Advisors LLC
Sometimes Shared Information?




                                       14
         Health Quality Advisors LLC
The Age of InfoMedicine

Clinical information to improve expert decisions
                          p       p
Clinical and economic information given to other
stakeholders to influence expert decisions
Clinical information shared with patients
New dimensions of clinical information
Patient-
Patient-generated information shared with
experts (and not)



                                               15
                Health Quality Advisors LLC
A New Information Ecosystem

Industrial Age
            g                                     Information Age
                                                               g
Info was:                                         Info is:
Scarce                                            Abundant
Expensive                                         Cheap
Institutionally oriented                          Personally oriented
                                                  P      ll    i t d
Designed for                                      Designed for
consumption                                       participation


Source: Pew Internet Project
                                                                        16
                               Health Quality Advisors LLC
Participatory Medicine

“A movement in which networked patients shift
 A
from being mere passengers to responsible
drivers of their health, and in which providers
encourage and value them as full partners.” –
Society for Participatory Medicine
“Physicians hold dim view of patients gathering
information on their own. Negative
consequences included more explaining and
unneeded interventions.” – FIMDM, 2008

                                                  17
                Health Quality Advisors LLC
Over-
Over-Participatory Medicine




                                      18
        Health Quality Advisors LLC
“Everyone clear on your role???




                 Ingredients: Data availability,
                   g                            y
                 accessibility, comparability,
                 storability, usability and relevance
Source: Wagner Care Model
                                                          19
                            Health Quality Advisors LLC
Personalized, Predictive, Preemptive
(Guess Who and What is Missing?)




   Source: Cortese, Clin Pharm &Ther 2007
                                                         20
                           Health Quality Advisors LLC
“Measure to Manage”
            Patients Face a New Paradigm




Source: www.consumer-care.org
                                                              21
                                Health Quality Advisors LLC
“Doc, I’ve got back pain
        Doc, I ve          pain”




Source: Luckmann and Vidal, J Biomed Inf 2010
                                                      22
                        Health Quality Advisors LLC
New Expectations, New Rules
      p         ,
 “Who measures, matters”
   Consumer-driven/consumer-
   Consumer-driven/consumer-centric quality
   measures
   Peer assessment
   Payer-
   Payer-driven measures
   Regulators, accreditors, lawyers, entrepreneurs

 “Power shifts”
   Physician-
   Physician-patient partnering: “new
                                  new
   professionalism”
   Hospital-
   Hospital-physician partnering: “a capital idea”
   Analytics l
   A l ti elevated and valued
                  t d d l d
   Teamwork trumps individualism                     23
                  Health Quality Advisors LLC
The Impact
“What’s sauce for the goose…”
• Clinical and financial accountability intertwine
• Employers/plans told to put money where mouth is
• Consumer autonomy encounters consumer
  accountability
“Why can’t we all be friends?”
• Arguments about measures as granularity increases
• Arguments about roles
• Arg ments abo t mone
  Arguments about money
Traditional health system organization collapses
  “Disruptive innovation” is disruptive
   Disruptive innovation
                                                      24
                   Health Quality Advisors LLC
The Promise and the Peril
“As a result of the information revolution, the
magic, mystery and power of the p
    g , y        y     p              profession
may be somewhat diminished, [but it] will
create unanticipated opportunities for
physicians to bolster the cognitive and moral
pillars of their professional identities.” – David
Blumenthal,
Blumenthal MD (2002)

“Technology is so much fun but we can drown in
our technology. The fog of information can drive
out knowledge.” – Daniel Boorstin

                                                     25
                  Health Quality Advisors LLC
As for the future
            future,
your task is not to
foresee,
foresee but to
enable it.
        it.
– Antoine de Saint
Exupery

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Osu informatics citih keynote 4 18-11

  • 1. The Future of Medical Informatics: Follow the “W t I f ti F ll th “Watsons” ” CITIH 2011 National Summit OSU Medical Center Columbus, OH April 18, 2011 Presented by: y Michael L. Millenson The Mervin Shalowitz, MD Visiting Scholar Kellogg School of Management & President, Health Quality Advisors, LLC mm@healthqualityadvisors.com 0 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 2. The Challenge of Transformation “Science and Technology revolutionize our Clinical Economic lives, but memory, tradition and myth frame our f response.” Cultural --Arthur --Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. Jr 1 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 3. The Difference Between Revolution and Reform “A reform is a correction of abuses. A revolution i a t l ti is transfer of power.” f f ” --Edward --Edward George Earle Bulwer-Lytton g Bulwer- y 2 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 4. From Autonomy (Lucas Marsh*)… “To the average human his body is b d i a great and sacred t d d mystery. And the man who knows the riddle of that mystery is a god. That's what we are – gods. And the thing that holds us together as a group is our realization of this.” – Not As a Stranger (1954) *Idealistic hero of best-selling novel and movie, being spoken to by a cynical colleague 3 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 5. …to Accountability (Clay Marsh*) Marsh ) “[Personalized medicine is] the process of the rapid creation of systems and technologies that deliver better health outcomes at lower costs and personalize care and empower users in a sustainable way ” way. *Real-life idealistic director of the Center for Personalized Health Care at The Ohio State University Medical Center 4 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 6. The Yellow Brick Road to InfoMedicine (Follow the Watsons) 5 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 7. Information to Improve Expert Decisions “The widespread use [of computers]...in The hospitals and physicians' offices will instantaneously give a doctor or a nurse a patient's entire medical history, eliminating both guesswork and bad recollection, and sometimes making a diff ki difference b t between lif and d th ” life d death.” --Thomas --Thomas Watson, Jr., Chairman of IBM (1965) 6 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 8. “Data for You, Doctor” “Modern communications systems…with their limitless potential for storage, retrieval and transmission, bring without our grasp such benefits as a nationwide clearinghouse of medical records and case histories, available to every physician at the dial of a number or the touch of a button.” – Boisfeuillet Jones, Dept. of HEW, 1962 “A doctor considering a patient's diagnosis could use…technology…to rapidly consider all the related texts, reference materials, prior cases, and latest knowledge in j journals and medical literature….This could help medical p professionals confidently determine the most likely diagnosis and treatment options.” – IBM press release on its Watson “Deep Question Answering” computer 2011 Deep Answering computer, 7 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 9. Information to Improve All Stakeholder Decisions A value-based [health-care] system is grounded in value- [health- three simple principles: 1. Value for patients 2. 2 Care organized around conditions and cycles 3. Results measured Michael Porter & Elizabeth Olmsted Teisberg Harvard Teisberg, Business School, Redefining Health Care (2007) “In God we trust. All others bring data.” --W. --W. Edwards Deming, c. 1951 8 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 10. Information Experts Share with “Non-E “Non “N -Experts” t ” “The physician-patient partnership is…an The physician- intense collaboration between patient and physician...[that is] informed by both the medical facts and the physician's experience.” --Timothy Quill --Timothy Quill, MD and Howard Brody MD Brody, Annals of Internal Medicine Dr. (John) Watson reads the news to Sherlock Holmes in The Five Orange Pips 9 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 11. Stage 1 Meaningful Use “Data f Doctor, P ti t and System” “D t for D t Patient dS t ” 10 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 12. New Dimensions of Clinical Information I f ti BIOMARKERS J Diagnosis • Presence of disease or identifying at-risk patients at- Staging of disease (severity) Prognosis of disease (metastases) Stratification of patients • Responders/non-responders Responders/non- Monitoring/predicting toxicity Monitoring therapeutic effect or pharmacodynamic effect James Watson c. 1957 Watson, c 11 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 13. Clinical Information “Off the Grid Off Grid” Thomas A. Watson, co- inventor of the telephone 12 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 14. Patient- Patient-Generated Information: Algorithms, AI Algorithms AI, DNA and “crowdsourcing” crowdsourcing 13 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 15. Sometimes Shared Information? 14 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 16. The Age of InfoMedicine Clinical information to improve expert decisions p p Clinical and economic information given to other stakeholders to influence expert decisions Clinical information shared with patients New dimensions of clinical information Patient- Patient-generated information shared with experts (and not) 15 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 17. A New Information Ecosystem Industrial Age g Information Age g Info was: Info is: Scarce Abundant Expensive Cheap Institutionally oriented Personally oriented P ll i t d Designed for Designed for consumption participation Source: Pew Internet Project 16 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 18. Participatory Medicine “A movement in which networked patients shift A from being mere passengers to responsible drivers of their health, and in which providers encourage and value them as full partners.” – Society for Participatory Medicine “Physicians hold dim view of patients gathering information on their own. Negative consequences included more explaining and unneeded interventions.” – FIMDM, 2008 17 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 19. Over- Over-Participatory Medicine 18 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 20. “Everyone clear on your role??? Ingredients: Data availability, g y accessibility, comparability, storability, usability and relevance Source: Wagner Care Model 19 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 21. Personalized, Predictive, Preemptive (Guess Who and What is Missing?) Source: Cortese, Clin Pharm &Ther 2007 20 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 22. “Measure to Manage” Patients Face a New Paradigm Source: www.consumer-care.org 21 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 23. “Doc, I’ve got back pain Doc, I ve pain” Source: Luckmann and Vidal, J Biomed Inf 2010 22 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 24. New Expectations, New Rules p , “Who measures, matters” Consumer-driven/consumer- Consumer-driven/consumer-centric quality measures Peer assessment Payer- Payer-driven measures Regulators, accreditors, lawyers, entrepreneurs “Power shifts” Physician- Physician-patient partnering: “new new professionalism” Hospital- Hospital-physician partnering: “a capital idea” Analytics l A l ti elevated and valued t d d l d Teamwork trumps individualism 23 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 25. The Impact “What’s sauce for the goose…” • Clinical and financial accountability intertwine • Employers/plans told to put money where mouth is • Consumer autonomy encounters consumer accountability “Why can’t we all be friends?” • Arguments about measures as granularity increases • Arguments about roles • Arg ments abo t mone Arguments about money Traditional health system organization collapses “Disruptive innovation” is disruptive Disruptive innovation 24 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 26. The Promise and the Peril “As a result of the information revolution, the magic, mystery and power of the p g , y y p profession may be somewhat diminished, [but it] will create unanticipated opportunities for physicians to bolster the cognitive and moral pillars of their professional identities.” – David Blumenthal, Blumenthal MD (2002) “Technology is so much fun but we can drown in our technology. The fog of information can drive out knowledge.” – Daniel Boorstin 25 Health Quality Advisors LLC
  • 27. As for the future future, your task is not to foresee, foresee but to enable it. it. – Antoine de Saint Exupery