OS20 - The epidemiological and economic impact of a potential outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Austria - Tatiana Marschik

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1. A simulation model was used to analyze the potential epidemiological and economic impact of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in two regions of Austria under different control scenarios. 2. The total costs of an FMD outbreak in Austria were estimated between €269-581 million, with the majority from export losses. The impact depends on control measures used, location, and available resources. 3. Current estimated resources for surveillance and cleaning/disinfection in Austria would be insufficient, leading to a longer outbreak. Alternative control strategies like vaccination could more efficiently limit the outbreak.

1EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
Tatiana Marschik et al.*
Unit of Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology
University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Austria
The epidemiological and economic
impact of a potential foot-and-mouth
disease outbreak in Austria
*Ian Kopacka, Simon Stockreiter, Friedrich Schmoll, Jörg Hiesel, Andrea Höflechner-Pöltl,
Annemarie Käsbohrer, Beate Pinior

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Space for your
videoModelling FMD Outbreak in Austria
EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
1. Stamping out of detected herds (=reference scenario)
2. Reference scenario + stamping out of dangerous contact herds
3. Reference scenario + ring culling within 1 km radius
4. Reference scenario + suppressive vaccination within 1 km radius
5. Reference scenario + protective vaccination within 1 km radius
Analysed regions Control scenarios
• Simulation model: EuFMDiS
• Day of detection: 21
• Index herd: large commercial dairy herd (random in each iteration)
• Detection mode: any herd
• Protection zone: 3 km
• Surveillance zone: 10 km
• Tracing window: 14 days
• Scenario maximal length: 365 days
• Number of iterations: 1,000
Basic simulation settings
Region „North“ Region „West“
Cattle herd size* 34 (10-115) 22 (8-75)
Swine herd size* 15 (1-801) 2 (1-27)
* median (5th -95th percentiles)

3
Space for your
videoAssessment of Cost and Losses
EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
Direct cost Indirect cost *
• Surveillance
• Culling
• Disposal
• Compensation
• Cleaning &
Disinfection
• Vaccination
• Export losses
• Production losses
(resulting from
business
interruption within
zones and from
temporary vacancy
of stables)
*Indirect costs were estimated by our own economic calculations and were not derived from EuFMDiS
Total cost and losses

4
Space for your
videoSummary
• An outbreak of FMD in Austria would cause total costs between € 269 and 581 million, the majority
of which would be attributable to export losses
• The overall impact of an FMD outbreak strongly depends on the chosen control measures,
geographical location and availability of sufficient resources
• Currently estimated resources for surveillance and cleaning and disinfection during an FMD
outbreak in Austria would be insufficient, which would lead to an extended epidemic control duration
• Implementation of alternative control measures, according to the EU legislation, would be more
efficient if the epidemic started in an area with high livestock density
• Increasing personnel resources limits the epidemic magnitude to a degree comparable to
additional control strategies such as suppressive or protective vaccination while maintaining the
same level of resources
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