OS16 - 2.P1.b FMD Disease Risk Assessment and Progress on Risk-Based Control Program - A. Bulut

Open Session of the EuFMD - Cascais –Portugal 26-28 October 2016
FMD DISEASE RISK ASSESMENT AND PROGRESS
ON RISK BASED CONTROL PROGRAM
Dr. Nihat PAKDIL1, A.Naci BULUT2
Deputy Under Secretary
Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestocks (MoFAL)
Diagnosis Department
Şap Institute, Ankara, Turkey

CONCLUSION
• Main risk identified in Turkey is virus incursion, once it happens
– Allow virus circulation in naive population and evolution of novel strains, due to some risk and gaps
identified in Turkey. It is resulted maintenance of endemic setting.
• To response the situation, it has been developed a «Risk Based Control Program»
• By regional progressive disease control approach, control measures have been implemented
• Main goal of the program is to achieve OIE status of FMD free with vaccination by 2025
– Based on risk assessment and socio-economical evaluation, and CBA eradication program has been
initiated through West to East Anatolia by three regional level; West, Central and East/SE Anatolia
– As a first step, Risk based Control program has been updated for West Anatolia and initiated control
measures including stamping out and activities in order to eliminate/reduce identified risk and gaps
– Progress of the program will be strictly monitored by specified monitoring system using all available
indicators
– The program has some challenges including regional implication. Turkey can capable to overcome using its
own sources and effort, such as vaccine production with enough capacity/potency and capacity on
developed diagnosis and molecular epidemiological tools ect.
– However, to overcome challenges by regional interaction, it needs
 Functional early detection system in the region
 Implementing effective all-duty regional control program
 Overall needs a strong political commitment on regional disease eradication

CIRCULATING STRAINS
• FMD is endemic in Anatolia region in Turkey
• Current Circulating virus strains:
– Serotype O (O PanAsiaII/Qom),
– A (Asia/GVII)* and
– (Asia1 has been not recorded since July 2015)
• Latest sirculated one was Asia-1(Asia1/SINDH08)
• Thrace region has been free of FMD with vaccination since May 2010.
3

OS16
4
Number of FMD outbreaks occurred by years (2016 –till 8thOct)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mean of last ten years 80 73.4 69.1 76.5 111.4 102.7 73.3 56 41.3 31.5 26.5 33.6
2013 29 31 129 177 257 172 120 50 29 27 46 30
2014 42 49 39 47 28 18 13 10 6 11 4 9
2015 4 17 22 10 8 7 5 4 7 12 126 375
2016 76 21 24 123 136 47 43 28 35 7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
NumberofOutbreaks
Number of Outbreak by years
A/ASIA/GVII
(2015)
O/PANASIAII/QOM15
(2016)

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Map Distribution of FMD Outbreaks Occurred in 2016
(till October)
n: 540
SerotypeO: 261
SerotypeA: 270
PCR(+): 9

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2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
TREND DISEASE -EPIDEMIC CURVES_LAST DECADES
AIRN05 SIS-10
BAB-12
NEP-84 (GVII)
PA II
ANT-10
FAR-09
QOM16(KAR-16)
SINDH-08
A
O
Asia 1
By Fuat Ozyörük

OS16
7
Map Distribution for Outbreaks due to A/
AsiaGVII
Nov● /Dec● 2015
Map Distribution for Outbreaks in between January-October2015

Early Response to new A outbreak wave: Vaccination vs no of
Outbreak
8
0.000 0.000
1.323
2.223
3.534
4.834
6.136
7.446
8.759
10.075
11.379
12.670
14.098
15.417 15.420
6
22
61
81
102
120
115
81
22
32
15 14 15
10 8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
9-15 Nov 16-22 Nov 23-29 Nov 30 Nov- 6
Dec
7-13 Dec 14-20 Dec 21-27 Dec 28 Dec-3
Jan16
4-10 Jan 11-17 Jan 18-24 Jan 25-31 Jan 01-07 Feb 08-11 Feb 12-21 Feb
Num.OfOutbreaks
Timeline
Amount ofVaccine(x000 dose) No Outbreaks

OS16
O/Kutahya/328/2016.288
O/Kutahya/1149/2016.635
O/Van/410/2016.308
O/Balikesir/929/2016.462
O/Ankara/LALA/2016.327
O/Sakarya/473/2016.327
O/Igdir/178/2016.135
O/Bingol/447/2016.327
O/Igdir/113/2016.058
O/Bingol/889/2016.442
O/Adiyaman/263/2016.250
O/Kars/96/2016.038
O/Bitlis/919/2016.462
O/Agri/316/2016.269
O/Agri/628/2016.385
O/Amasya/532/2016.346
O/Ankara/943/2016.481
O/Bingol/811/2016.423
O/Malatya/517/2016.346
O/Elazig/591/2016.365
O/Van/987/2016.500
O/Mardin/471/2016.327
O/Agri/907/2016.462
O/Malatya/792/2016.423
O/K.Maras/1071/2016.538
O/Elazig/272/2016.231
O/Nigde/1148/2016.635
O/Hakkari/989/2016.500
O/Adiyaman/720/2016.404
O/Ardahan/313/2016.269
O/Ankara/541/2016.346
O/Adiyaman/534/2016.346
O/Diyarbakir/279/2016.250
O/Malatya/513/2016.346
O/Kayseri/271/2016.250
O/Igdir/1005/2016.500
O/Gaziantep/431/2016.327
O/Mus/522/2014.346
O/Kilis/302/2016.269
O/Malatya/528/2016.346
O/Denizli/660/2016.385
O/Artvin/1107/2016.577
O/Adana/300/2016.269
O/Van/521/2016.346
O/Samsun/241/2016.212
O/Eskisehir/296/2016.269
O/Kars/1160/2016.635
O/K.Maras/235/2016.212
O/Kastamonu/305/2016.269
O/Agri/322/2016.269
O/Kars/809/2016.423
O/Burdur/530/2016.346
O/Kilis/406/2016.308
O/Mugla/1129/2016.615
O/Yozgat/1114/2016.577
O/Izmir/930/2016.462
O/Ankara/327/2016.288
O/Nevsehir/1131/2016.615
O/ISR/Snir/2011
O/IRN/7/2009
OTNKr5707/2007
O/Kirklareli/387/2007.154
O/Sanliurfa/264/2009.904
OAPC13402/2002
O/Agri/71/2010.096
O/Ardahan/57/2015.231
O/BAR/2/97
O/SAU/3/2013.615
O/Bingol/332/2005.462
O/VIT/32/2011.327
O/AFG/210/2004.096
O/PAK/3/2005.096
99
80
96
57
64
65
30
55
27
74
26
37
88
14
74
37
54
86
61
15
18
30
77
69
49
99
22
35
15
25
67
4
30
45
28
27
65
6
44
2
2
2
23
5
5
14
27
6
0
3
0
13
0
0
4
0
0
0
0.01
A/Samsun/1100/2016.577
A/Corum/1137/2016.615
A/Amasya/307/2015.923
A/Kirikkale/336/2015.923
A/Kars/455/2016.327
A/Ardahan/1055/2016.538
A/Mus/1008/2016.500
A/Malatya/347/2016.288
A/Gaziantep/480/2016.327
A/Kayseri/239/2016.192
A/Isparta/246/2016.212
A/Eskisehir/333/2015.923
A/Ardahan/312/2016.269
A/Ankara/306/2016.269
A/Kutahya/317/2016.269
A/Manisa/912/2016.462
A/Kocaeli/234/2016.192
A/Van/198/2015.808
A/Ardahan/123/2016.058
A/Van/203/2015.827
A/Kayseri/274/2015.923
A/Duzce/219/2015.865
A/Kutahya/331/2015.923
A/Kirsehir/279/2015.904
A/Bursa/271/2015.923
A/Yozgat/304/2015.923
A/Van/175/2015.712
A/Isparta/65/2016.038
A/Agri/679/2015.981
A/Ankara/300/2015.923
A/Corum/292/2015.923
A/Corum/243/2015.904
A/Eskisehir/276/2015.923
A/Kars/267/2015.904
A/Mus/719/2015.981
A/Ardahan/565/2015.962
A/Ardahan/43/2016.019
A/Ardahan/569/2015.962
A/Nigde/245/2015.904
A/Kars/229/2015.885
A/Nigde/231/2015.904
A/Kars/226/2015.885
A/Yalova/217/2015.865
A/Usak/327/2015.923
A/Izmir/365/2016.288
A/Agri/252/2015.904
A/Amasya/209/2015.865
A/Elazig/248/2015.904
A/Karabuk/323/2015.923
A/Igdir/48/2016.019
A/Izmir/214/2016.173
A/Cankiri/312/2015.923
A/Yozgat/305/2015.923
A/Kirsehir/310/2015.923
A/Cankiri/277/2015.923
A/Bursa/214/2015.865
A/Bitlis/205/2015.827
A/Balikesir/335/2015.923
A/Mus/657/2015.981
A/Afyon/699/2015.981
A/Erzurum/820/2016.423
A/Antalya/242/2016.212
A/Konya/294/2015.923
A/Sivas/381/2016.308
A/Agri/704/2015.981
A/SAU/1/2015.692
A/BAN GA Sa197 2013/2014.000
A/ALB/1/1996
A/IND/40/2000.000
A/NEP/21/84
A22/Mahmatli/1964.981
A/Nevsehir/402/2006.173
A/IRN/1/2005.269
A/Kocaeli/180/2015.788
A/Sivas/208/2015.546
A/Nigde/200/2015.827
A/Ankara/195/2015.827
A/Karabuk/223/2015.885
A/Malatya/242/2015.904
99
99
66
99
30
43
99
95
95
82
99
77
99
87
58
54
27
46
48
20
51
42
36
66
6024
64
47
8
49
44
17
11
10
10
15
11
5
5
21
0
11
15
0
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
Filogenetic Analysis2016 :
O serotype
Filogenetic
Analysis2016 :
A serotype

OS16
Challenges for Disease Control
REGIONAL
 Virus Incursion into the country
 profitable animal price amounts of causes illegal movements across the borders
 Insufficient early detection of upcoming strains
 Lack of all-duty regional control program
NATIONAL
 Booster vaccination of young animals in Central and East Anatolia
 Single vaccination of calves having maternally-derived antibodies might be unfavorable
for herd immunity.
• Dense cattle population providing raw material (>1 year) for fattening farms in
the other region: causes irregular animal movement
• High elevation, hard and long winter conditions in East Anatolia
• Common grazing and highland (yayla) for summer grazing
• Farmer awareness; Biosecurity, outbreak management

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CONTROL PROGRAM
• A Risk Based Control Program has been developed and applied
since 2014
GOAL OF THE STRATEGY
• To contribute to the development of the livestock sector by achieving OIE
status of FMD free with vaccination by 2025
• By regional progressive disease control approach, the strategy is consist
of 30 component objectives
ACTIVITIES AND TACTICS
• To reduce/eliminate risk and gaps for each identified risk and gaps:
• Initiated implementing of control activities

MAP FOR REGIONAL PROGRESSIVE CONTROL PROGRAM
2019:PCP4; 2021 OIE FreeStatus
2021:PCP4; 2023OIE FreeStatus
2023:PCP4; 2024 OIE FreeStatus
Buffer Zone: 2025 FreeStatus

RISK BASED CONTROL PROGRAM FOR WEST ANATOLIA
GOAL: Reach PCP Stage4 in 2019; and OIE FMD Free Status with vaccination in 2021
MAIN COMPONENTS OF CONTROL PROGRAM:
Continuing risk based vaccination
 Including booster vaccination for primo vaccinators
Risk based surveillance program
Monitoring movement: Check point
Regulation of animal movement form the other regions
compliance with OIE Terrestrial Code: Quar./NSP testing
ect.
Effective outbreak management/Biosecurity
Stamping out for DC
Enhance awareness for stakeholders
Increasing technical capacity
Effective monitoring and improvement of infrastructure
West Anatolia
Central Anatolia
East Anatolia
Check points

OS16
• Vaccination
Vaccination implemented based on risk analysis:
• Preventive campaign vaccination :In Anatolia; twice a year for LR;_In Thrace: : Twice a year for LR/once for SR
• Early Spring: population assured immun before releasing grazing time
• Late Summer: population assured immun before Kurban festival
• Ring Vaccination to response outbreak in Surveillance zone of outbreak
• Targeting vaccination for identified “Hotspot»
• Small ruminant veccination where risk identified
• Booster vaccination in West of country
Şap Institute produces FMD vaccine sufficient capacity covered national population with >6PD50 potency vaccine used
• Diagnosis and Genetic and Antigenic Characterization of Isolates
• Epidemiological investigation
• Active and passive surveillance
• Outbreak investigation and case study
• Sero-surveillance; NSP Prevalence estimation in Anatolia/Risk based surveillance Program for early detection in
Thrace
• Routine control measures in case of disease outbreak (biosecurity, restriction, quarantine, sampling)
• Control of animal movements and markets
• Training field vets and awareness activities for stakeholders
• Stamping out in West of Anatolia
CURRENT FMD CONTROL POLICY CONDUCTED IN TURKEY

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MONITORING CONTROL PROGRAM_INDICATORS
• Reconstructed TURVET (Registration and Information System) with more functional and features :
• Animal Registration System
• LR/SR registered into the system with ear-tag; initiated replacement of electronic ear-tag
• Animal movement managed and monitored by the system
• Regular movement report by province
• Veterinary Information System (VIS)
• Outbreak Management
• Entering outbreak data all notifiable disease
• Vaccination data
• Sample Management System
• Establishment Epidemiology and Monitoring Unit
• Central level at GDFC; at 9 Regional Vet Institute including Şap Institute and Provincial level
• Regular Diagnosis Activities
• Clinical diagnosis (Incidence, attack and mortality rate) data; VIS
• Serotyping data: Şap Institute and VIS at GDFC
• Genotyping data: Şap Institute
• Antigenic Characterization (r Value) data: Şap Institute
• Clinical surveillance
• Sero-surveillance Activities
• NSP Suro-surveillance: Assessment disease dynamics and identifying risk factors
• Post vaccination sero-surveillance: Vaccination performance and antibody level

OS16
Thank you very much for your attention!
Acknowledges
• Fuat Ozyörük; Unal Parlak
• The Şap Institute
• General Directorate for Food and Control (GDFC)

OS16 - 2.P1.b FMD Disease Risk Assessment and Progress on Risk-Based Control Program - A. Bulut

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