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Optimization
Pyramids for
Digital Ads

Dr. Augustine Fou
http://linkd.in/augustinefou
acfou @mktsci .com
February 2014

-1-

Augustine Fou
Optimize Targeting
“Non-human and not in-view traffic
confounds measurement systems and
messes up metrics. Once those are
under control, reach and targeting
optimization can become much more
effective.” (see the green slices)
-- Ted McConnell
-2-

Augustine Fou
Display Ads
16-25%

23-54%

15-30%
-3-

non-fraud, human viewer

not-in-view or ad-blocked

known fraudulent impressions
Augustine Fou
Display Ad Impressions

30 – 60%
fraudulent, wasted, not-in-view
IAB: FY 2012 Display Ad Spend = $7.7B

• By far, the easiest to commit – fill a web page with many
display ads and repeatedly load the page with scripts or bots
• Clients pay on CPM basis and are usually goaled on the
number of impressions delivered and CPM
-4-

Augustine Fou
Video Ads
10-20%

non-fraud, human viewer

30-50%

20-40%
-5-

not-in-view, autoplay

confirmed fraudulent views
Augustine Fou
Video Ad Impressions

50 - 77%
fraudulent, autoplay, wasted, not-in-view
Source: Vindico via Adweek, December 15, 2013
eMarketer: Digital Video Ad Spend est. $4B in 2013

• Advanced bots are programmed to load video ads and wait
till they are counted as “views” before leaving the page
• Video ads have 10x the CPM compared with display ads, and
are therefore a prime target for ‘bad guys’
-6-

Augustine Fou
Search Ads
70-90%

5-10%
5-20%
-7-

non-fraud, human viewer

accidental clicks
ads shown on fraudulent sites
Augustine Fou
Search Ad Clicks

20 - 40%
fraudulent, accidental, wasted
Source: Adometry Click Fraud Report 1H 2013
IAB: FY 2012 Search Ad Spend = $16.8B

• Search ad fraud is a bit more involved to commit and usually
occurs on “search partner” sites (not the main search sites)
• Bad guys set up sites with no content, execute searches with
lucrative keywords, and click the ads with bots
-8-

Augustine Fou
Dr. Augustine Fou – Digital Consigliere
“I advise clients on optimizing
advertising across all channels. One
main area of focus is reducing ad waste
due to fraud – fake impressions, clicks,
leads, and sales.”
FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM)
MCKINSEY CONSULTANT
CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE
PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST
ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER
PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23

ClickZ Articles: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-clickz
Slideshares: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-slideshares
LinkedIn: http://linkd.in/augustinefou

-9-

@acfou

Augustine Fou
Ted McConnell – Digital Consigliere
“My Goals are to drive, and participate
in the process that yields the winning
vision for my clients. I'm a Digital
Marketing Generalist: I've Run large
organizations, been staff to c-level
executives at P&G, hold 4 Patents,
successfully driven change in Marketing
and Advertising practice in P&G and
other companies.”
ADVERTISING RESEARCH FOUNDATION
MANAGER, DIGITAL MARKETING INNOVATION

AdAge Articles: http://adage.com/author/ted-mcconnell/4334
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pub/ted-mcconnell/0/5b5/8a2
- 10 -

Augustine Fou
Related Articles
ROI Case for Solving Ad Fraud
By: Augustine Fou January 2014

Fake YouTube Videos
By: Augustine Fou, December 2013

Digital Ad Fraud Briefing
By: Augustine Fou December 2013

Motive and Opportunity for Ad Fraud
By: Augustine Fou, February 2014

How Display Fraud Works
By: Augustine Fou, May 2013

Fake Facebook Profiles
By: Augustine Fou, Dec 2013

How Click Fraud Works
By: Augustine Fou, November 2013

Fake Twitter Accounts
By: Augustine Fou, August 2013

The Magnitude of Digital Ad Fraud
By: Augustine Fou, November 2013

Display Fraud 101 (video)
By: Augustine Fou, Feb 2014

- 11 -

Augustine Fou
APPENDIX
- 12 -

Augustine Fou
Display Ad
Backup Data
- 13 -

Augustine Fou
Fraudulent Impressions
Ad exchanges are particularly prone to fraud because shady sites sell enormous
quantities “ad impression inventory” into the exchanges for re-sale.

Source: Integral Ad Science, via BusinessWeek Nov 26, 2013
- 14 -

Augustine Fou
Bot Traffic Estimates

30 – 75%

51% suspicious

fraudulent, not-in-view, adblocked bot
24-29% confirmed
IAB: FY 2012 Display Ad Spend = $7.7B

• By far, the easiest to commit – fill a web page with many
display ads and repeatedly load the page with scripts or bots
• Clients pay on CPM basis and are usually goaled on the
number of impressions delivered and CPM
Source: Solve Media via Marketing Charts September 12, 2013
- 15 -

Source: Solve Media Dec 31 2013
Augustine Fou
54% Online Ads Aren’t In View

Source: comScore June 2013 via MarketingCharts
- 16 -

Augustine Fou
23% of Users Use Adblockers
Source: PageFair, August 2013
Average Adblocking Rate

22.7%

- 17 -

Augustine Fou
Video Ad
Backup Data
- 18 -

Augustine Fou
Video Ad Viewability
A new study [download page] from
VideoHub indicates that during the first
quarter, average viewability for online
video ads in the US was 83%, although
rates varied widely among properties,
from 43% on the low end to 94% on the
high end. Broadcast TV sites fared best
(89% on average) among property
categories, with networks and
exchanges (73%) bringing up the rear.

Source: VideoHub August 2013 via MarketingCharts
- 19 -

Augustine Fou
Search Ad
Backup Data
- 20 -

Augustine Fou
Click Fraud by Qtr

Source: ClickForensics 2011
- 21 -

Augustine Fou
Before and After

BEFORE

AFTER

Top 2 “good guys” = 76%

Top 5 “good guys” = 94%

18% of spend shifted from fraudulent websites to “top 5” good guys
- 22 -

Augustine Fou

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Digital Ads Optimization Pyramids Reduce Fraud

  • 1. Optimization Pyramids for Digital Ads Dr. Augustine Fou http://linkd.in/augustinefou acfou @mktsci .com February 2014 -1- Augustine Fou
  • 2. Optimize Targeting “Non-human and not in-view traffic confounds measurement systems and messes up metrics. Once those are under control, reach and targeting optimization can become much more effective.” (see the green slices) -- Ted McConnell -2- Augustine Fou
  • 3. Display Ads 16-25% 23-54% 15-30% -3- non-fraud, human viewer not-in-view or ad-blocked known fraudulent impressions Augustine Fou
  • 4. Display Ad Impressions 30 – 60% fraudulent, wasted, not-in-view IAB: FY 2012 Display Ad Spend = $7.7B • By far, the easiest to commit – fill a web page with many display ads and repeatedly load the page with scripts or bots • Clients pay on CPM basis and are usually goaled on the number of impressions delivered and CPM -4- Augustine Fou
  • 5. Video Ads 10-20% non-fraud, human viewer 30-50% 20-40% -5- not-in-view, autoplay confirmed fraudulent views Augustine Fou
  • 6. Video Ad Impressions 50 - 77% fraudulent, autoplay, wasted, not-in-view Source: Vindico via Adweek, December 15, 2013 eMarketer: Digital Video Ad Spend est. $4B in 2013 • Advanced bots are programmed to load video ads and wait till they are counted as “views” before leaving the page • Video ads have 10x the CPM compared with display ads, and are therefore a prime target for ‘bad guys’ -6- Augustine Fou
  • 7. Search Ads 70-90% 5-10% 5-20% -7- non-fraud, human viewer accidental clicks ads shown on fraudulent sites Augustine Fou
  • 8. Search Ad Clicks 20 - 40% fraudulent, accidental, wasted Source: Adometry Click Fraud Report 1H 2013 IAB: FY 2012 Search Ad Spend = $16.8B • Search ad fraud is a bit more involved to commit and usually occurs on “search partner” sites (not the main search sites) • Bad guys set up sites with no content, execute searches with lucrative keywords, and click the ads with bots -8- Augustine Fou
  • 9. Dr. Augustine Fou – Digital Consigliere “I advise clients on optimizing advertising across all channels. One main area of focus is reducing ad waste due to fraud – fake impressions, clicks, leads, and sales.” FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM) MCKINSEY CONSULTANT CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23 ClickZ Articles: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-clickz Slideshares: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-slideshares LinkedIn: http://linkd.in/augustinefou -9- @acfou Augustine Fou
  • 10. Ted McConnell – Digital Consigliere “My Goals are to drive, and participate in the process that yields the winning vision for my clients. I'm a Digital Marketing Generalist: I've Run large organizations, been staff to c-level executives at P&G, hold 4 Patents, successfully driven change in Marketing and Advertising practice in P&G and other companies.” ADVERTISING RESEARCH FOUNDATION MANAGER, DIGITAL MARKETING INNOVATION AdAge Articles: http://adage.com/author/ted-mcconnell/4334 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pub/ted-mcconnell/0/5b5/8a2 - 10 - Augustine Fou
  • 11. Related Articles ROI Case for Solving Ad Fraud By: Augustine Fou January 2014 Fake YouTube Videos By: Augustine Fou, December 2013 Digital Ad Fraud Briefing By: Augustine Fou December 2013 Motive and Opportunity for Ad Fraud By: Augustine Fou, February 2014 How Display Fraud Works By: Augustine Fou, May 2013 Fake Facebook Profiles By: Augustine Fou, Dec 2013 How Click Fraud Works By: Augustine Fou, November 2013 Fake Twitter Accounts By: Augustine Fou, August 2013 The Magnitude of Digital Ad Fraud By: Augustine Fou, November 2013 Display Fraud 101 (video) By: Augustine Fou, Feb 2014 - 11 - Augustine Fou
  • 13. Display Ad Backup Data - 13 - Augustine Fou
  • 14. Fraudulent Impressions Ad exchanges are particularly prone to fraud because shady sites sell enormous quantities “ad impression inventory” into the exchanges for re-sale. Source: Integral Ad Science, via BusinessWeek Nov 26, 2013 - 14 - Augustine Fou
  • 15. Bot Traffic Estimates 30 – 75% 51% suspicious fraudulent, not-in-view, adblocked bot 24-29% confirmed IAB: FY 2012 Display Ad Spend = $7.7B • By far, the easiest to commit – fill a web page with many display ads and repeatedly load the page with scripts or bots • Clients pay on CPM basis and are usually goaled on the number of impressions delivered and CPM Source: Solve Media via Marketing Charts September 12, 2013 - 15 - Source: Solve Media Dec 31 2013 Augustine Fou
  • 16. 54% Online Ads Aren’t In View Source: comScore June 2013 via MarketingCharts - 16 - Augustine Fou
  • 17. 23% of Users Use Adblockers Source: PageFair, August 2013 Average Adblocking Rate 22.7% - 17 - Augustine Fou
  • 18. Video Ad Backup Data - 18 - Augustine Fou
  • 19. Video Ad Viewability A new study [download page] from VideoHub indicates that during the first quarter, average viewability for online video ads in the US was 83%, although rates varied widely among properties, from 43% on the low end to 94% on the high end. Broadcast TV sites fared best (89% on average) among property categories, with networks and exchanges (73%) bringing up the rear. Source: VideoHub August 2013 via MarketingCharts - 19 - Augustine Fou
  • 20. Search Ad Backup Data - 20 - Augustine Fou
  • 21. Click Fraud by Qtr Source: ClickForensics 2011 - 21 - Augustine Fou
  • 22. Before and After BEFORE AFTER Top 2 “good guys” = 76% Top 5 “good guys” = 94% 18% of spend shifted from fraudulent websites to “top 5” good guys - 22 - Augustine Fou