P.Parameshwari
Scientific approach for problem solving & decision making
Management science ,Operations research, System Analysis
“Science of better “
Operate efficiently with optimal resources
Introduced in World war II (1930)
Applied in defense, industry , education ,health services…..
The operational research society of India since 1957
International federation of operational research societies (IFORS)
Headquarters in Kolkata
Promotion and propagation of knowledge in operational research
Establishment & maintenance of professional and academic
standards
Journal- OPSEARCH
Any research that produces practically usable knowledge (evidence,
information, findings) which can improve program implementation
(effectiveness, efficiency, quality, access, scale up, sustainability)
regardless of the type of research (design, methodology, approach) falls
within the boundaries of operation research
The use of systematic (or) analytical research techniques for decision making to
achieve a specific outcome(WHO)
Operations research helps policy-makers and program managers to review,
redirect and restructure programs using social science and other research
methods with empirically-based and scientifically-valid answers to service
delivery problems
DEFINITION
Optimal allocation of resources in terms of man, money & material
Based on social & management science
Balance conflict of interest to make decisions
Complements monitoring & evaluation( mORe)
Inventive & experimental
Deals on specific problems within specific programs
 Develop new knowledge about the program & its utilization
 Identify & solve program problems in a timely manner
 Help policy-makers & program managers to make decision
with evidence based answers
 Improve efficiency & effectiveness of program using scientifically
valid methods
SERVICE ISSUES
Quality
Safety
Access
Distribution
Affordability
Drug availability
Skills of health workers
POLICY ISSUES
Policy guidelines
Regulations
Applicability
COMMUNITY ISSUES
KAP Studies
PREVENTIVE
&
CONTROL MEASURES
 National programs for communicable diseases like
• Tuberculosis
• HIV/AIDS
• Malaria
 National family welfare program
Global fund to fight against AIDS, Malaria &
Tuberculosis
Bill & Milenda group
Wellcome trust
1. Access to screening and diagnosis of TB
2. Developing sustainable collaboration with all practitioners for TB care
and control
3. Prevention of TB in HIV patients and combined HIV/TB treatment
4. Treatment of Drug‐susceptible and MDR/XDR‐TB: optimal access,
delivery and community participation
5. Capacity Building for Operational Research
OPERATION RESEARCH IN TUBERCULOSIS
LQAS of sputum AFB smears stored under ambient conditions for
2 to 15 months for assessment of quality of reading in microscopy
centres
Monitoring of the DOTS programme
Involving private practitioners in the RNTCP
Assessing relapse among Category I patients who have
successfully completed treatment
Risk of tuberculosis infection and disease in different economic
strata
 Health planning
Demand forecasting
Location selection – Health care centre / immunisation /ambulance
 Health care management & Logistics
Patient scheduling
Resource scheduling
Logistics in health care
 Health care practise
Disease diagnostics & treatment planning
 Preventive health care
OPERATION RESEARCH IN MANAGEMENT
How to decide on the best locations of health centres for providing
maximum Healthcare coverage to a given population?
How many base locations of medical ambulances are needed if the
total distance from the locations to the hospitals must be less than
a given number?
How should radiation treatment be planned for minimising the
treatment time of a cancer patient?
How should the nurses in a trauma centre be scheduled to
maintain an adequate service level even in the worst-case scenario?
 To improve the program performance & outcome
To identify the deficiencies in the program
Correct the problem by technical & managerial intervention
 Study the new intervention to improve the program
To assess the effectiveness of new intervention in real environment
Implementation OR
 To guide policy recommendations
Evidence based answers for decision making
To support new intervention that are beneficial when scale up
Director (Head of the project)
 Epidemiologist
 Public health administrator
 Statistician
 Sociologist
 Experts in Mathematics & Economics
 Ancillary workers
Formulation of the problem
Collection of relevant data
Analysis of data & formulate hypothesis
Deriving solutions from hypothesis or “model”
Choosing the optimal solution & forecasting results
Testing of solutions
Implementing the solution in whole system
PHASES IN OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
Critical step
Clearly defined to get good solutions
Relevant to the program
What the policy makers need to know to improve the program..
 How to improve access of screening to diagnose MDR /XDR TB
 How to improve adherence of ART treatment
 Study on increase condom use among ARV treatment
Economical
Extensive for decision making
Purposeful and based on objective & hypothesis
Using quantitative or qualitative methods
Construct a model to represent the system under study
Think mathematically & logically in making formulation
Hypothesis , assumptions, parameters & prognosis
Theoretical input changes in model & calculation of probable output
changes
Trying to solve problems with number of possible combinations of
interventions
Limited combinations due to selected & few key variables
Theoretical restriction to few combination by team members
Creative imagination of team members but should be real & practical
Iterative process till optimal combinations is obtained
INPUT
Resources – Man, money ,material
Services
Administrative
Decision making
Geographical distribution of
resources
OUTPUT
Operational achievement
Public participation in services
Relevant health personnel actions
Geographical distribution of services
Customer satisfaction
Economic effects
Model is a simplified explicit description of existing public health
service
Competitive relationship between public health investment &
alternative investment
Model with manageable number of key variables
Identify the key variable that brings largest change in system with
insight & intuition
Logistics & methodology by mathematician & statistician
Material knowledge epidemiologist ,economist & sociologist
MODELS
IN
OPERATION RESEARCH
SIMULATION MODEL
A model is a symbolic representation of an idealised system
Allows to try out approaches
Ability to conduct sensitivity studies to search for improvement
To test ideas of improvement
 Planning & evaluation of immunisation & sanitation programme for
control of typhoid fever
OPTIMISATION MODEL
To search among possible choices in efficient & effective manner
Narrowing our choices to very best when many immeasurable options are
feasible
To maximize profit & minimize loss
 Linear programming
 Non linear programming
 Integer programming
 Linear programming
 To solve problem with million of variable & thousands of constraints
 Objective & constraints should be linearly related
 Feasible decision to represent single objective function
 Budget allocation ,staff scheduling
 Integer programming
 Variable with pre determined discrete values
 Discrete values 0 or 1
 Solve binary decision than large magnitude problem
 To locate ambulance, radiation beam for cancer patients
DECISION ANALYSIS/THEORY MODEL
Quantitative method to analyze decisions based on probability theory
Decision tree-key interaction among decision & chance events
Uncertainity & multiple conflicting objective
Limited directly relevant data
Systematic approach to make better decisions
QUEING THEORY
 Objective is to minimize cost of waiting & increasing the cost of
servicing
 Goal is to derive an explicit expression to queue length or waiting
time distribution usually in steady state
Eg : Waiting list & Bed allocation
NETWORK FLOW PROGRAM
 Diagrammatic representation of sequence of different events
 Set of points connected by lines or arrows to show direction
 Program evaluation review technique & Critical path method
PERT CPM
Identify events necessary to achieve
objective
Long term/first time project with
time uncertain
Probabilistic & linear programming
Planning schedule ,cost & forecasting
Expected time for activity
= Optimistic time + (4 X Most likely
time )+ Pessimistic time / 6
Identify activity than events
Project with prior experience &
known time
Critical path- activity with longest
time
Float
Maximum time the activity can slip if
critical path not managed
Team may select one of the solution to be put to a test
Team ends up with a set of proposals for intervention with details
of changes needed in the system & its consequences
Implement the decided choice with changes
Initiate test run
Emphasis on training changes & manuals for personal engaged in
public health service in the test area
FORECASTING RESULT
Forecast the changes in operational achievements & indices
Forecasting the results in terms of objective
Delay in obtaining the output
Prognosis in statistical & conditional terms
Test run plays vital role in operational research of public health
Defined geographic area (60-100 centres,dispenseries)
Observer effect
Comparison & analysis of feed back with test run and control
Test run requires additional investigators
Implementing solution in whole system
Obstacles to implement rational solution to work
May not be successful as test run
Modified solution of test run to put to final test
Low level of mathematical/ engineering background in health sector
Limited OR literature in health care
Lack of OR expertise
Lack of optimal dissemination & utilization of operation research
results for programme strengthening
This is just a common sense – with a superstructure of fine
words
Operations research can never replace experience
Rational bases for decision making
Provide information to provide valuable insight & guidance
Discipline of both management & social science
Improves efficiency & effectiveness of program
THANK
YOU

Operational research

  • 1.
  • 2.
    Scientific approach forproblem solving & decision making Management science ,Operations research, System Analysis “Science of better “ Operate efficiently with optimal resources Introduced in World war II (1930) Applied in defense, industry , education ,health services…..
  • 3.
    The operational researchsociety of India since 1957 International federation of operational research societies (IFORS) Headquarters in Kolkata Promotion and propagation of knowledge in operational research Establishment & maintenance of professional and academic standards Journal- OPSEARCH
  • 4.
    Any research thatproduces practically usable knowledge (evidence, information, findings) which can improve program implementation (effectiveness, efficiency, quality, access, scale up, sustainability) regardless of the type of research (design, methodology, approach) falls within the boundaries of operation research The use of systematic (or) analytical research techniques for decision making to achieve a specific outcome(WHO) Operations research helps policy-makers and program managers to review, redirect and restructure programs using social science and other research methods with empirically-based and scientifically-valid answers to service delivery problems DEFINITION
  • 5.
    Optimal allocation ofresources in terms of man, money & material Based on social & management science Balance conflict of interest to make decisions Complements monitoring & evaluation( mORe) Inventive & experimental Deals on specific problems within specific programs
  • 6.
     Develop newknowledge about the program & its utilization  Identify & solve program problems in a timely manner  Help policy-makers & program managers to make decision with evidence based answers  Improve efficiency & effectiveness of program using scientifically valid methods
  • 7.
    SERVICE ISSUES Quality Safety Access Distribution Affordability Drug availability Skillsof health workers POLICY ISSUES Policy guidelines Regulations Applicability COMMUNITY ISSUES KAP Studies PREVENTIVE & CONTROL MEASURES
  • 8.
     National programsfor communicable diseases like • Tuberculosis • HIV/AIDS • Malaria  National family welfare program Global fund to fight against AIDS, Malaria & Tuberculosis Bill & Milenda group Wellcome trust
  • 9.
    1. Access toscreening and diagnosis of TB 2. Developing sustainable collaboration with all practitioners for TB care and control 3. Prevention of TB in HIV patients and combined HIV/TB treatment 4. Treatment of Drug‐susceptible and MDR/XDR‐TB: optimal access, delivery and community participation 5. Capacity Building for Operational Research OPERATION RESEARCH IN TUBERCULOSIS
  • 10.
    LQAS of sputumAFB smears stored under ambient conditions for 2 to 15 months for assessment of quality of reading in microscopy centres Monitoring of the DOTS programme Involving private practitioners in the RNTCP Assessing relapse among Category I patients who have successfully completed treatment Risk of tuberculosis infection and disease in different economic strata
  • 11.
     Health planning Demandforecasting Location selection – Health care centre / immunisation /ambulance  Health care management & Logistics Patient scheduling Resource scheduling Logistics in health care  Health care practise Disease diagnostics & treatment planning  Preventive health care OPERATION RESEARCH IN MANAGEMENT
  • 12.
    How to decideon the best locations of health centres for providing maximum Healthcare coverage to a given population? How many base locations of medical ambulances are needed if the total distance from the locations to the hospitals must be less than a given number? How should radiation treatment be planned for minimising the treatment time of a cancer patient? How should the nurses in a trauma centre be scheduled to maintain an adequate service level even in the worst-case scenario?
  • 13.
     To improvethe program performance & outcome To identify the deficiencies in the program Correct the problem by technical & managerial intervention  Study the new intervention to improve the program To assess the effectiveness of new intervention in real environment Implementation OR  To guide policy recommendations Evidence based answers for decision making To support new intervention that are beneficial when scale up
  • 15.
    Director (Head ofthe project)  Epidemiologist  Public health administrator  Statistician  Sociologist  Experts in Mathematics & Economics  Ancillary workers
  • 16.
    Formulation of theproblem Collection of relevant data Analysis of data & formulate hypothesis Deriving solutions from hypothesis or “model” Choosing the optimal solution & forecasting results Testing of solutions Implementing the solution in whole system
  • 17.
  • 18.
    Critical step Clearly definedto get good solutions Relevant to the program What the policy makers need to know to improve the program..  How to improve access of screening to diagnose MDR /XDR TB  How to improve adherence of ART treatment  Study on increase condom use among ARV treatment
  • 19.
    Economical Extensive for decisionmaking Purposeful and based on objective & hypothesis Using quantitative or qualitative methods
  • 20.
    Construct a modelto represent the system under study Think mathematically & logically in making formulation Hypothesis , assumptions, parameters & prognosis
  • 21.
    Theoretical input changesin model & calculation of probable output changes Trying to solve problems with number of possible combinations of interventions Limited combinations due to selected & few key variables Theoretical restriction to few combination by team members Creative imagination of team members but should be real & practical Iterative process till optimal combinations is obtained
  • 22.
    INPUT Resources – Man,money ,material Services Administrative Decision making Geographical distribution of resources OUTPUT Operational achievement Public participation in services Relevant health personnel actions Geographical distribution of services Customer satisfaction Economic effects
  • 23.
    Model is asimplified explicit description of existing public health service Competitive relationship between public health investment & alternative investment Model with manageable number of key variables Identify the key variable that brings largest change in system with insight & intuition Logistics & methodology by mathematician & statistician Material knowledge epidemiologist ,economist & sociologist
  • 24.
  • 25.
    SIMULATION MODEL A modelis a symbolic representation of an idealised system Allows to try out approaches Ability to conduct sensitivity studies to search for improvement To test ideas of improvement  Planning & evaluation of immunisation & sanitation programme for control of typhoid fever
  • 26.
    OPTIMISATION MODEL To searchamong possible choices in efficient & effective manner Narrowing our choices to very best when many immeasurable options are feasible To maximize profit & minimize loss  Linear programming  Non linear programming  Integer programming
  • 27.
     Linear programming To solve problem with million of variable & thousands of constraints  Objective & constraints should be linearly related  Feasible decision to represent single objective function  Budget allocation ,staff scheduling  Integer programming  Variable with pre determined discrete values  Discrete values 0 or 1  Solve binary decision than large magnitude problem  To locate ambulance, radiation beam for cancer patients
  • 28.
    DECISION ANALYSIS/THEORY MODEL Quantitativemethod to analyze decisions based on probability theory Decision tree-key interaction among decision & chance events Uncertainity & multiple conflicting objective Limited directly relevant data Systematic approach to make better decisions
  • 29.
    QUEING THEORY  Objectiveis to minimize cost of waiting & increasing the cost of servicing  Goal is to derive an explicit expression to queue length or waiting time distribution usually in steady state Eg : Waiting list & Bed allocation NETWORK FLOW PROGRAM  Diagrammatic representation of sequence of different events  Set of points connected by lines or arrows to show direction  Program evaluation review technique & Critical path method
  • 30.
    PERT CPM Identify eventsnecessary to achieve objective Long term/first time project with time uncertain Probabilistic & linear programming Planning schedule ,cost & forecasting Expected time for activity = Optimistic time + (4 X Most likely time )+ Pessimistic time / 6 Identify activity than events Project with prior experience & known time Critical path- activity with longest time Float Maximum time the activity can slip if critical path not managed
  • 31.
    Team may selectone of the solution to be put to a test Team ends up with a set of proposals for intervention with details of changes needed in the system & its consequences Implement the decided choice with changes Initiate test run Emphasis on training changes & manuals for personal engaged in public health service in the test area
  • 32.
    FORECASTING RESULT Forecast thechanges in operational achievements & indices Forecasting the results in terms of objective Delay in obtaining the output Prognosis in statistical & conditional terms
  • 33.
    Test run playsvital role in operational research of public health Defined geographic area (60-100 centres,dispenseries) Observer effect Comparison & analysis of feed back with test run and control Test run requires additional investigators
  • 34.
    Implementing solution inwhole system Obstacles to implement rational solution to work May not be successful as test run Modified solution of test run to put to final test
  • 35.
    Low level ofmathematical/ engineering background in health sector Limited OR literature in health care Lack of OR expertise Lack of optimal dissemination & utilization of operation research results for programme strengthening
  • 36.
    This is justa common sense – with a superstructure of fine words Operations research can never replace experience
  • 37.
    Rational bases fordecision making Provide information to provide valuable insight & guidance Discipline of both management & social science Improves efficiency & effectiveness of program
  • 38.

Editor's Notes

  • #16 Epidemilogical unit- epidemiological data,from literature, from field,requires MO,LT,MSW,intervewers.collection based on sampling technique Social unit-based on social science ,budget analyst,professional accountant
  • #20 Beginning or first data collection for the model Data from test runs in late phaases