The ONS Economic Forum is an event aimed at analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of ONS economic statistics.
Each event consists of an overview of UK economic statistics along with a session focused on a topic of particular interest.
The ONS Economic Forum is an event aimed at analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of ONS economic statistics.
The ONS Economic Forum is an event aimed at analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of ONS economic statistics.
Each event consists of an overview of UK economic statistics along with a session focused on a topic of particular interest. Today's special topic is 'shaping the future of consumer price statistics'.
The ONS Economic Forum is an event aimed at analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of ONS economic statistics.
Each event consists of an overview of UK economic statistics along with a session focused on a topic of particular interest.
The ONS Economic Forum is an event aimed at analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of ONS economic statistics.
The ONS Economic Forum is an event aimed at analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of ONS economic statistics.
Each event consists of an overview of UK economic statistics along with a session focused on a topic of particular interest. Today's special topic is 'shaping the future of consumer price statistics'.
These are the slides presented at The Greater London Authority , London for the Economic Forum on Thursday 24 October 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of regional statistics.
The ONS Economic Forum is a quarterly event aimed at City analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of relevant ONS economic statistics, including GDP, the labour market, prices and the public finances.
Slides presented at The Bank of England , London for the Economic Forum on Monday 21 October 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of economic statistics.
These are the slides presented at Surgeons Quarter, Edinburgh for the Economic Forum on Monday 17 June 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of economic statistics and regional analysis.
Slides that were presented at ONS’ household income statistics user event in October. The slides cover
Developments in household income stats (Dominic Webber, ONS)
Administrative data research (Matthew Greenaway, ONS)
Methodological choices in the analysis of the Effects of Taxes and Benefits – (Tom Waters, IFS)
Future research (Dominic Webber, ONS)
These are the slides presented at Surgeons Quarter , Edinburgh for the afternoon ESWG Seminar on Monday 17 June 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of economic statistics and regional analysis.
Presentations on earnings statistics, showcasing idea-sharing sessions from across ONS, government departments, think tanks and academia presenting analyses based on ONS’s main sources (Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Labour Force Survey).
At our annual productivity forum we will be discussing our key developments and core priorities for the future. The event will include presentations from the Productivity team at the ONS, as well as key users of the labour productivity statistics.
This half day virtual event was opened by ONS senior leaders, offering their perspective on ONS ambitions for business statistics.
Attendees will hear updates from the producers of key UK business surveys, data, statistics and projects, including:
Annual Business Survey (ABS)
Annual Purchases Survey (APS)
Business Enterprise Research and Development (BERD) survey
Government Research and Development (GovERD) survey
Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS)
Regional Gross Domestic Product
Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) and transformation to the Statistics Business Register (SBR)
Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) and other linked business microdata
Secure Research Service (SRS) and transformation to the Integrated Data Service (IDS)
These are the slides presented at The Greater London Authority , London for the Economic Forum on Thursday 24 October 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of regional statistics.
The ONS Economic Forum is a quarterly event aimed at City analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of relevant ONS economic statistics, including GDP, the labour market, prices and the public finances.
Slides presented at The Bank of England , London for the Economic Forum on Monday 21 October 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of economic statistics.
These are the slides presented at Surgeons Quarter, Edinburgh for the Economic Forum on Monday 17 June 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of economic statistics and regional analysis.
Slides that were presented at ONS’ household income statistics user event in October. The slides cover
Developments in household income stats (Dominic Webber, ONS)
Administrative data research (Matthew Greenaway, ONS)
Methodological choices in the analysis of the Effects of Taxes and Benefits – (Tom Waters, IFS)
Future research (Dominic Webber, ONS)
These are the slides presented at Surgeons Quarter , Edinburgh for the afternoon ESWG Seminar on Monday 17 June 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of economic statistics and regional analysis.
Presentations on earnings statistics, showcasing idea-sharing sessions from across ONS, government departments, think tanks and academia presenting analyses based on ONS’s main sources (Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Labour Force Survey).
At our annual productivity forum we will be discussing our key developments and core priorities for the future. The event will include presentations from the Productivity team at the ONS, as well as key users of the labour productivity statistics.
This half day virtual event was opened by ONS senior leaders, offering their perspective on ONS ambitions for business statistics.
Attendees will hear updates from the producers of key UK business surveys, data, statistics and projects, including:
Annual Business Survey (ABS)
Annual Purchases Survey (APS)
Business Enterprise Research and Development (BERD) survey
Government Research and Development (GovERD) survey
Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS)
Regional Gross Domestic Product
Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) and transformation to the Statistics Business Register (SBR)
Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) and other linked business microdata
Secure Research Service (SRS) and transformation to the Integrated Data Service (IDS)
ONS presentation at RSS South Wales poverty & inequality stats eventRichard Tonkin
Update on ONS data for poverty statistics & research. Presentation given at RSS South Wales event: Poverty & Inequality in Wales - Statistics for Action (28th Sept 2016)
These are the slides presented at the Economic Forum on 8 September 2022.
The ONS Regional Economic Forum will present the current state of the UK economy and present data and analysis for your area at a local level.
Presentations include:
Understanding the UK Economy.
Showcase exciting developments supporting the levelling up agenda and work on sub-national data.
Addressing the productivity puzzle: from ONS data to the Transformational Triangle.
This presentation covers the key question: Why dashboards? Local authorities and other public bodies have largely ended publishing reports and now produce dashboards. What are the factors that have contributed to this change?
This is the first presentation from our Workshop on 21 September 2023 on Dashboards, APIs and PowerBI.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
In April 2022, as the impact of increases in the Cost of Living really came to the forefront, Public Health & Communities, Suffolk County Council published a Cost of Living profile as part of the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment.
Alongside a written Cost of Living report ‘Making ends meet: The cost of living in Suffolk’, an interactive dashboard was also created using Power BI. In addition to internal data flows, publicly available data from sources such as the ONS have been used to provide a rich picture of the current situation for the local community.
The dashboard was developed in order to:
• Provide up to date data and information on the Cost of Living for Suffolk County Council, partner organisations, and members of the public.
• Deliver an interactive tool to allow users to focus on areas most relevant to them.
• Demonstrate that, while increases in the cost of living affect everyone, impact will be greatest for those who are already under financial pressure, exacerbating inequalities.
• Provide a source of actionable insight to support the system with the evidence base needed to support project development, drive change and really make a difference in the community.
Features of the dashboard:
• Place-focused - published at smaller geographies where possible
• Collaborative - Includes local data from across the system such as data shared by Citizens Advice and other system partners.
• Automated - Most data sources have automated connections, meaning there is little manual intervention required.
• Self-Service - Making the report publicly available puts data at the fingertips of colleagues, system partners and members of the public.
• Live - The dashboard is a living report which is frequently updated.
This session will:
• Provide a demonstration of Suffolk County Council’s Cost of Living dashboard
• Give an overview of data sources
• Explore opportunities for automation using Power BI
• Discuss how the data dashboard is used locally
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working on cost of living dashboards at the local level.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to promote evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful workshops which will provide practical, technical support to help users make the most of ONS data. The Cross-Government Data Science Community brings together data scientists and analysts to build data science capability across the UK governments and public sector.
We are delighted to welcome you to our inaugural Workshop in our new series, entitled: 'How to use APIs'. The session will cover what Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) are, the advantages in using them and a practical demonstration of how they can be used. The journey of two Local Authority analysts as they begin using APIs in place of manual processes will be showcased to the audience. The session will conclude by explaining the plan for the forthcoming series of Workshops that will begin in September and introducing the Slack channel that ONS Local and Cross-Government DS community will be using to support users' technical questions going forward.
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on creating data dashboards for internal or external use.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to promote evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful workshops which will provide practical, technical support to help users make the most of ONS data. The Cross-Government Data Science Community brings together data scientists and analysts to build data science capability across the UK governments and public sector.
We are delighted to welcome you to our inaugural Workshop in our new series, entitled: 'How to use APIs'. The session will cover what Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) are, the advantages in using them and a practical demonstration of how they can be used. The journey of two Local Authority analysts as they begin using APIs in place of manual processes will be showcased to the audience. The session will conclude by explaining the plan for the forthcoming series of Workshops that will begin in September and introducing the Slack channel that ONS Local and Cross-Government DS community will be using to support users' technical questions going forward.
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on creating data dashboards for internal or external use.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to promote evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful workshops which will provide practical, technical support to help users make the most of ONS data. The Cross-Government Data Science Community brings together data scientists and analysts to build data science capability across the UK governments and public sector.
We are delighted to welcome you to our inaugural Workshop in our new series, entitled: 'How to use APIs'. The session will cover what Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) are, the advantages in using them and a practical demonstration of how they can be used. The journey of two Local Authority analysts as they begin using APIs in place of manual processes will be showcased to the audience. The session will conclude by explaining the plan for the forthcoming series of Workshops that will begin in September and introducing the Slack channel that ONS Local and Cross-Government DS community will be using to support users' technical questions going forward.
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on creating data dashboards for internal or external use.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
From 1 August 2019, the Secretary of State for Education delegated responsibility for the commissioning, delivery and management of London’s Adult Education Budget (AEB) to the Mayor of London. The AEB helps Londoners to get the skills they need to progress both in life and work. The overarching aim of London’s AEB is to make adult education in London even more accessible, impactful and locally relevant.
In this presentation, the Greater London Authority will be going through the results of the pioneering 2021/22 London Learner Survey (LLS). The survey’s objective is to gain insight into the outcomes of learners to inform and improve policy. The LLS consists of two linked surveys of learners who participated in GLA-funded Adult Education Budget (AEB) learning in the academic year 2021/22.
In the LLS, Learners are surveyed prior to and 5-7 months after completing their course to estimate the economic and social changes that learners experience following an AEB course.
In particular, the presentation will show the economic impact broken down by:
. Progression into employment
. Progression within work
. Progression into further learning.
The social impact will be explored by looking at changes in:
. Health and wellbeing
. Improved self-efficacy
. Improved social integration
. Participation in volunteering
The presentation will also cover how outcomes vary by funding type, breaking down the results by Community Learning and Adult Skills.
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on skills, education and employment.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
Are you interested in finding, visualising, comparing and downloading a wide range of geographically granular datasets in one place? If so, this webinar is definitely for you!
We will present ONS plans for the development of Explore Subnational Statistics (ESS), a public-facing digital service that will allow users to find out more about local areas across the UK.
We will retrace the main milestones in our journey to date, starting from the launch of ESS vision in the GSS subnational data strategy, then taking a closer look at the Subnational Indicators Explorer, and, finally, outlining a roadmap towards the Beta version of the service.
This event is open to all, however we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level, with data on the policy themes of economy, transport connectivity, education, skills, health and wellbeing, or interested in data visualisation products.
If you have any questions, please contact onslocal@ons.gov.uk
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
Education and qualifications have been included as a separate analysis topic in Census for the first time in 2021. In this presentation the Census 2021 Education Analysis team will go through the results from the first two publications in their Analysis Plans, focusing on their impact and use for local authorities and other local users.
In the first publication published on 17th February 2023, 'How workforce qualification levels differ across England and Wales', the analysis looked at qualifications in the workforce population (adults aged 16 years and over who are economically active). The piece focused on trends across local authorities, exploring themes including the North-South divide, coastal towns and regional inequality.
The second publication examines the variations in the levels of qualifications that people hold by their country of birth. This includes establishing patterns across UK geographies for international migrants.
The session included live demonstrations of the interactive maps used in the publications, and how the data can be used by local authorities.
This recording is open to all, however we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on skills, education and employment.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk
Welcome to the monthly economic forum. Here we will be showcasing the latest economic and social developments with a wide range of analytic topics. Each month we will feature ‘State of the Economy’, providing a stocktake of the latest trends and developments.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
Have you ever wondered which local authorities are similar to each other? This presentation discusses cluster analysis ONS has published to draw insight into which local authorities are performing in a similar way against key policy themes, promoting greater joined up working between local authorities with similar characteristics to address common problems they face. Our analysis also provides local authorities with control groups for investigating the impact of policy interventions.
In this webinar, we will cover the methods used to create our outputs, demonstrate some of our findings in our interactive visualisation tool and present information on our future plans to expand on this work.
This event is open to all, however we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level, or with data on the policy themes of economy, transport connectivity, education, skills, health and wellbeing.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk
ZGB - The Role of Generative AI in Government transformation.pdfSaeed Al Dhaheri
This keynote was presented during the the 7th edition of the UAE Hackathon 2024. It highlights the role of AI and Generative AI in addressing government transformation to achieve zero government bureaucracy
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
A process server is a authorized person for delivering legal documents, such as summons, complaints, subpoenas, and other court papers, to peoples involved in legal proceedings.
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
Russian anarchist and anti-war movement in the third year of full-scale warAntti Rautiainen
Anarchist group ANA Regensburg hosted my online-presentation on 16th of May 2024, in which I discussed tactics of anti-war activism in Russia, and reasons why the anti-war movement has not been able to make an impact to change the course of events yet. Cases of anarchists repressed for anti-war activities are presented, as well as strategies of support for political prisoners, and modest successes in supporting their struggles.
Thumbnail picture is by MediaZona, you may read their report on anti-war arson attacks in Russia here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/13/burn-map
Links:
Autonomous Action
http://Avtonom.org
Anarchist Black Cross Moscow
http://Avtonom.org/abc
Solidarity Zone
https://t.me/solidarity_zone
Memorial
https://memopzk.org/, https://t.me/pzk_memorial
OVD-Info
https://en.ovdinfo.org/antiwar-ovd-info-guide
RosUznik
https://rosuznik.org/
Uznik Online
http://uznikonline.tilda.ws/
Russian Reader
https://therussianreader.com/
ABC Irkutsk
https://abc38.noblogs.org/
Send mail to prisoners from abroad:
http://Prisonmail.online
YouTube: https://youtu.be/c5nSOdU48O8
Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/libertarianlifecoach/episodes/Russian-anarchist-and-anti-war-movement-in-the-third-year-of-full-scale-war-e2k8ai4
ONS Economic Forum on the road Cardiff - 2 Nov 2017
1. ONS Economic Forum - Cardiff
2 November 2017
Email: ONS.economic.forum@ons.gov.uk
Twitter: @ONS
#Econstats
2. Agenda
Time Item Speaker
10:00 – 10:20 Office for National Statistics: statistics
for the public good
Richard Heys, Deputy Chief Economist
10:20 – 10:40 Understanding the UK economy Fiona Massey, Economic Adviser
10:40 – 11:00 Recent changes to ONS economic
statistics – a regional perspective
Richard Prothero,
Head of Cities and Sub-regional Analysis,
Public Policy Division, ONS
11:00 – 11:10 Question and answer
11:10 – 11:25 Coffee break
11:25 – 11:45 Guest speaker - Analysis of the Welsh
economy in the UK context
Jonathan Price, Chief Economist, Welsh
Government
11:45 – 12:00 Question and answer
3. Office for National Statistics: statistics
for the public good
Richard Heys – Deputy Chief Economist
ONS
4. Who are we?
• Economic, public policy & population statistics…
• … but other Departments provide statistics too (e.g. energy, health)
• Our responsibility is for coherence of system as a whole
• Census provider in England and Wales
• Newport (South Wales) and Titchfield (Southern England), with small
London presence
UK Statistics
Authority
Other
government
stats producers
Office for
National
Statistics
Office for
Statistics
Regulation
5. Our status and role
• An independent statutory body
• Operating at arm’s length from government as a
non-ministerial department, reporting directly to
the UK’s Parliaments and Assemblies
• In law our objective is
“promoting and safeguarding the production
and publication of official statistics that serve
the public good”
• Explicit aim of responding promptly to emerging
issues
6. Explaining the Economics you see in the News
Contents
1) GDP
2) Inflation &
interest rates
3) Trade
4) Productivity
5) Labour Market
7. …And a lot more…
GDP growth Inflation (Un)employment Wages
Trade Public finances
Regional and
country economic
data
Crime
Births, deaths and
marriages
Population Migration
Health and social
care
Personal income
and wealth
Well-being Environment …and more
9. Economic Statistics Transformation Drivers
• Users’ needs are changing
• Economy evolving quickly
• Opportunities from new data
sources
• ONS needs to be more open
Bean
Independent Review of
UK Economic Statistics
2016
Johnson
• UK Consumer Prices
Stats – A Review 2015
Barker / Ridgeway
• National Statistics Quality
Review 2014
Best Practice
• European System of
Accounts 2010
10. Data is central to the
decisions which affect
our lives
Data is now available
from previously
unimaginable sources
We treat personal data
confidentially and make
sense of numbers for
the public good
Economic Statistics Transformation
11. Economic Statistics and Analysis Strategy
Better measurement
of the modern
economy - the digital
revolution
Better measurement
of services sector
activities
Better measurement
of Gross Domestic
Product
Better measurement
of Trade
Better understanding
of the productivity
puzzle
Better measurement
of the Labour market
Better measurement
of prices
Exploitation,
interrogation and
understanding of
administrative data
and other large
datasets
Better information
below whole
economy level
12. Relies on up-skilling our workforce
• Increasing the number of professional analysts in our
workforce by 50% from 2016 to 2021.
• Significant increases in the number of economists in
this period
• Launch of the Data Science Campus in South Wales
to develop new cutting edge skills and techniques.
13. The Circular Flow of GDP
FirmsHouseholds
Expenditure
Output (Goods & Services)
Labour and other Inputs
Income
14. Three ways of calculating GDP
Expenditure
GDP(E)
How
much is
spent
Output
GDP (O)
How
much is
produced
Income
GDP (I)
How
much is
earned
15. Three ways of calculating GDP
Expenditure
GDP(E)
How much is
spent
- Use of Credit
Card data
- Retails Sales
Output
GDP (O)
How much is
produced
- Use of VAT data
- SERVCOM &
Purchases
Survey
- Improving
Deflators
Income
GDP (I)
How much is
earned
- Use of PAYE
& Self-
Assessment
data
Improving the Supply-Use system
16. VAT – the benefits
Current system
Turnover is used as a
proxy for gross value
added
Surveys sent to 45,000
firms each month
Limited regional and
local estimates
Refreshing a survey
takes time to get new
data
Future System
VAT could give us GVA –
in time…
2m returns each quarter
Significant increase in
granularity of estimates
Admin data comes with
historical data for rapid
use
17. PAYE – the benefits
Current system
Average Weekly
Earnings x employment
= Salaries
LFS sent to 40,000
households
MWSS – 9,000 firms
monthly
Future System
PAYE = Salaries + some
pensions
65m records within 2
weeks, including 18m
pension payments
19. Measuring services: SERVCOM
• To reconcile Supply and Use across the economy requires not only measures of
output/turnover but also products.
• 114 x 114 matrix of industry sales by product supply for Supply tables, and
industry intermediate consumption by product demand for Use tables
• Historically economy dominated by industrial production and goods, reflected in
detail of surveys for industrial production for EU e.g. PRODCOM
• Economy has changed: services now 80% of GVA of which general government
roughly a quarter – with industrial production 10% of GVA
• Key recommendation of Bean review to address measurement of the service
sector and disproportionate detail e.g. deflators and quality etc.
• So propose counterpart to PRODCOM of SERVCOM
20. SERVCOM: Industry and Product
No product
factors
available/appl
ied
Production Industries Services Industries
Production
Products
Historical
product
factors
applied to
ABS
question
“Sales of
non-
industrial
services”
ITIS product factors and
historical source product
factors applied to ABS total
industry sales
Services
Products
PRODCOM sales data
product factors applied
to ABS sales of goods
and industrial services
Servcom
To reconcile
Supply and Use
across the
economy requires
not only measures
of output/turnover
but also products.
114 x 114 matrix
of industry sales
by product supply
for Supply tables,
and industry
intermediate
consumption by
product demand
for Use tables
21. Help us improve the ONS website
• In the first year we made 1500 changes to the ONS website
• “Customise my data” is our biggest change and will enable
users to customise datasets and browse by location
• Signup to be involved in our user testing at
www.surveymonkey.com/r/helptheons or email us
userinsight@ons.gsi.gov.uk
22. Understanding the UK economy
Fiona Massey
Head Economic Review, Economic Advice & Analysis
Office for National Statistics
economic.advice@ons.gov.uk
ONS Regional Forum, 25 October 2017
22
23. Latest data from ONS
• GDP
• Economic wellbeing
• Inflation
• Employment
• Productivity
23
40. The UK also performs weakly compared to
other developed countries
40
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development, and Office for National Statistics calculations
41. With the vast majority of labour employed in
below average productivity industries
41
Financial services
Legal and accounting
42. Main messages
• GDP slow-down driven by services
• Economic wellbeing dashboard captures
wider measures of welfare
• Import intensive goods are putting upward
pressure on CPIH
• Flows analysis of the labour market shows fall
in outflows from employment
• Real wage growth negative for last 6 months
• UK productivity weakness continues
42
43. Recent changes to ONS economic
statistics – a regional perspective
Richard Prothero,
Head of Cities and Subregional
Analysis, Public Policy Division, ONS
44. Devolution Programme
A programme to improve ONS regional and local statistics.
Regional Balanced GVA
Regional & Sub-Regional Household Final Consumption Expenditure
Regional Short Term Indicators
Country and Regional Public Sector Finances
Exports of Services Data
Productivity
Small Area Data
Flexible Geographies.
Investigating Uses of Administrative Data
Regional Prices.
Stakeholder Engagement
45. Labour Productivity (GVA per hour worked), 2015
Source: ONS - Regional and sub-regional productivity in the UK: Jan 2017
46. 'City Regions' Labour Productivity
GVA per hour worked, 2015
Source: ONS - Regional and sub-regional productivity in the UK: Jan 2017
47. Labour Productivity by Industry
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
S and T - Other service activities
R - Arts, entertainment and recreation.
Q - Human health and social work activities.
P - Education.
O - Public administration and defence;
N - Administrative and support service activities.
M - Professional, scientific and technical activities.
L - Real estate activities.
K - Financial and insurance activities.
J - Information and communication.
I - Accommodation and food service activities.
H - Transportation and storage.
G - Wholesale and retail trade;
F - Construction.
C – Manufacturing.
A, B, D, and E – Non-manufacturing production
Output per Hour - Wales (UK=100), 2015
Source: ONS - Region by industry labour productivity
48. Distribution of firm level productivity (GVA per worker) in the
non-financial business economy.
• This Figure shows firm-level
productivity data for the non-
financial business economy for
selected regions and countries for
2014.
• It shows the proportion of firms at
different levels of gross value
added (GVA) per worker.
• The distributions are skewed to the
right, indicating that in all the
regions there are fewer firms with
high productivity levels than firms
with lower productivity levels.
Source: ONS - Regional firm-level productivity analysis for the non-financial business economy: Jan 2017
49. Low Productivity in Sparse Areas
0 20 40 60 80 100
City and Town Non-Sparse
City and Town Sparse
Town and Fringe Non-Sparse
Town and Fringe Sparse
Village Non-Sparse
Village Sparse
Hamlets & Isolated Dwellings
Non-Sparse
Hamlets & Isolated Dwellings
Sparse
England & Wales = 100
GVA per worker in the Business
Economy, England and Wales, 2014
Source: ONS - Exploring labour productivity in rural and urban areas in Great Britain: 2014
50. Net Fiscal Balance by Country and Region
• In the financial year ending (FYE) 2016,
all countries and regions except
London, the South East and the East of
England had a public sector net fiscal
deficit, with the East of England
showing a net fiscal surplus for the first
time since FYE 2008.
• This was the same when North Sea oil
and gas revenue was allocated to
regions on both geographic and
population shares (the chart shows the
geographic share). The difference
between these two measures was
negligible in 2015/16.
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Northern Ireland
Scotland
Wales
South West
South East
London
East of England
West Midlands
East Midlands
Yorkshire and The Humber
North West
North East
Net Fiscal Balance (£bn) 2015/16
Source: ONS - Country and regional public sector finances
51. Net Fiscal Balance by Country and Region
Chart shown is calculated on geographic basis – population share basis is also available.
Source: ONS - Country and regional public sector finances
52. Public Sector Revenue, by Country and Region,
Source: ONS - Country and regional public sector finances
53. Public Sector Expenditure, by Country and Region
Source: ONS - Country and regional public sector finances
54. Exports of Services
Source: ONS - Estimating the value of service exports abroad from different parts of the UK
55. Total value of service exports from NUTS1 areas by
continent, Great Britain, 2015
Source: ONS - Estimating the value of service exports by destination from different parts of Great Britain
56. Total value of service exports from NUTS1 areas by
manufacturing industry
• The EU was the largest destination for manufacturing services exports, receiving close to £5.0 billion,
followed by Asia with £4.3 billion, and the Americas with £3.9 billion.
Source: ONS - Estimating the value of service exports by destination from different parts of Great Britain
57. House Prices by Area.
Source: ONS - House price per square metre and house price per room, England and Wales: 2004 to 2016
58. Small Area House Price Statistics
• .
Source: ONS - House price
statistics for small
areas in England and Wales
59. Affordability Ratio for Property Prices
Source: ONS Housing affordability in England and Wales: 1997 to 2016
60. Alternative Travel to Work Areas
High Qualifications Low Qualifications
Source: ONS - Travel to work area analysis in Great Britain
61. ‘Balanced’ Regional GVA
• In December 2017, a new ‘Balanced’ Regional GVA measure
will be published.
• UK GDP measured 3 different ways
• Income; Output (or Production); Expenditure
• Then balanced to provide a single ‘best’ estimate
• Regional GVA measured 2 different ways
• Income, Output (or Production). No expenditure measure due
to inter-regional trade flows
• These will be used to derive a single ‘best’ estimate
62. ‘Balanced’ Regional GVA
• Balanced GVA should be more stable and reliable
• Extra industry detail
– NUTS1: 80 industry breakdown
– NUTS2: 71 industry breakdown
• All of these in both current prices and ‘real’ CVMs (chained
volume measures).
• The existing income components will be published down to
local authority district level.
• All regional GVA estimates (inc. small areas and derived
productivity estimates) based on a consistent and coherent
framework
63. Regional Short Term Indicators (RSTI)
• Users tell us they need more timely, more
granular and more flexible regional
economic statistics
• Devolution project established 2016
• Includes the development of Regional Short
Indicators for England
• ie produce quarterly real GVA growth
estimates for the regions (NUTS1) of England
• Addresses the user need for more timely
regional economic statistics
65. The detail….
What’s happening when?
• Mar 18: Peer review of historic
series
• Apr 18: User consultation
(including the publication of the
historic series)
• Dec 18: First regular publication of
experimental data
• Ongoing quarterly publication
~90-110 days after the end of the
quarter
What’s the approach?
• Using a combination of data sources:
• Monthly Business Survey (MBS)
• Retail Sales Inquiry (RSI)
• Remaining industries covered by
“other data sources”
• Mainly direct volume measures eg
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Air
Transport, Education
• Including the use of VAT data
• Using UK deflators
Email: RSTI.Enquiries@ons.gov.uk
~60% ind
coverage
71. GVA per head in Wales is lower than any other UK country or region. Productivity
(GVA per hour worked) explains around 2/3 of the headline gap:
71
Source: Welsh Government
72. Wales (along with Northern Ireland) has been persistently lagging
on productivity:
Most regions have been slowly deteriorating relative to the UK as a whole, mainly because the
latter includes London which has outperformed.
72
Source: ONS
73. Lower productivity performance in Wales (and other countries/regions)
is NOT explained by the mix of industries:
Source: ONS
73
74.
75. But Wales has a high proportion of low productivity firms :
• Productivity and pay tends to be higher in larger (especially multi-national) firms,
but no evidence that this is the prime factor in explaining regional disparities
• Firm productivity reflects economic fundamentals……..
75
Source: ONS
76.
77. Close link between pay and productivity reflects share of Compensation of
Employees in GVA:
(Note: gross trading profits include depreciation, so can reflect capital intensity and
profit allocation)
For firms operating
across border, profits
are apportioned
77Source: Welsh Government
78. In Wales as in other parts of the UK, pay is strongly linked to
qualification level:
Note: These premia are relative to the regional average (mean). Over recent years, mean wages in
Wales have been – just - the lowest of 12 UK countries and regions.
78
Source: Welsh Government analysis of APS
79. Employment rates are also much more strongly linked to qualification level
than location:
79
Source: Welsh Government Analysis of APS
80. High pay/productivity UK regions tend to have high levels of qualification:
Wales performs quite well at graduate level (at lower levels Wales is similar to
northern English regions), and the premia are similar……so why is Welsh
average pay/productivity lagging below northern English regions? 80
81. Role of economic mass as summarised in a recent review for the UK Department for
Transport:
“Studies consistently find a positive relationship [between economic mass and
productivity] . Furthermore, the relationship is quantitatively important……An
authoritative survey of the literature finds that ‘In sum, doubling city size seems to
increase productivity by an amount that ranges from roughly 3-8%’ (Rosenthal and
Strange 2004, p2133). This means that the elasticity of productivity with respect to city
size is in the range 0.05- 0.11….. suggesting that productivity in a city of 5 million is
between 12% and 26% higher than in a city of ½ million.”
Transport investment and economic performance: Implications for project appraisal
Venables, Laird, Overman (DfT – 2014)
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/.../TIEP_Report.pdf
Second to qualifications, productivity (and pay) are associated with
“economic mass”:
Note 1: This finding relates to levels of productivity not productivity growth
Note 2: The relationship is found only after “holding qualifications constant”….it is
not observed in the raw data.
Note 3: The relationship varies across sectors, and is weak/non-existent for
manufacturing 81
82. Wales has lower economic mass than most other parts of the UK:
82
83. Summary
• No pretence at complete explanation…
• But Welsh performance not anomalous, given
the “fundamentals”
• These fundamentals are amenable to policy
mainly over the longer run
83
Editor's Notes
Intend to use growth rates first in selected industries, and develop levels in due course to inform balancing against other sources
Intend to use growth rates first in selected industries, and develop levels in due course to inform balancing against other sources
Servcom will cover the whole service sector (excluding banks and government) with a sample of 40,000 covering 274 industries
Will ask for a breakdown of turnover into the service products from which it is generated, irrespective of classified industry
Will complement new data from the purchases survey and measures of turnover and intermediate consumption from VAT returns.
In particular Servcom will enable improved deflation and hence volume measures of output
In the round new data sources will provide a profound improvement to Supply-Use and hence measurement of GDP more broadly.
In the future extend coverage to ALLCOM.
Good morning, I’m going to start by presentation on the UK economy - with an interesting fact about the audience reach of the ONS. Independent research has found that in August this year, the ONS was reaching an average audience of 5.6m people per day. This means that articles covering the statistical outputs of the ONS are being read in print and on-line media by a potentially very large audience – and a large part of that audience reach is driven by coverage of our economic statistics. The research tells us for example, that there is particularly high coverage for our inflation and GDP estimates, as might be expected given their significance for the economy.
So, this gave me a good idea of what to cover in my presentation today. So I decided to focus on…
These 5 areas:
GDP
Economic wellbeing
Inflation
Employment and
Productivity
Most of the charts I’m going to show you contain the latest data, apart from those on GDP which use Q2 data, as Q3 data was only available this morning. I can of course explain the changes to the data we see in the first estimate of GDP for Q3 as we go along. Please also bear with me as this presentation uses a lot of data, but most of these are already published by ONS and I’ll signpost you to where they are published as well.
I hope you are happy with this choice, but please feel free to ask questions about other areas of the economy at the end of the presentation.
So, my first chart is one which we use every month in our Monthly Economic Commentary. This is the lead chart in each commentary and the easiest way to find this material is by using the release calendar on the ONS website and look at the publications on the same day as the GDP estimates are published.
Bars = quarter on previous quarter growth, % (LHS)
Line = quarter on previous year’s quarter, % (rolling annual average) (RHS)
The preliminary estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) shows that the UK economy grew by 0.4% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017, following growth of 0.3% in the previous quarter. Growth in Quarter 3 2017 was driven by an expansion in production and services output, while construction continued to act as a drag.
In terms of why the UK has seen a slow-down in its rate of economic growth – again we talk about this in our Monthly Economic Commentary:
The statistician’s quote explains that….
“Growth in the third quarter of 2017 continued at a similar rate as seen in the first half of the year. Services, led by increases in IT, motor trades and retail, continued to drive GDP growth. Manufacturing also boosted the economy with an improved performance after a weak second quarter.
“However, construction output fell for the second consecutive quarter, although it remains above its pre-downturn peak.”
These latest figures show that services output rose by 1.7% in the three months to August 2017 compared with same 3 months in the previous year. (Chart from IoS October release of Aug data)
All four of the main components of the services industries increased in the most recent three months compared with the same three months a year ago. In order of their contribution to growth:
business services and finance increased by 1.6%, contributing 0.64 percentage points
distribution, hotels and restaurants increased by 2.9%, contributing 0.51 percentage points
transport, storage and communication increased by 2.2%, contributing 0.29 percentage points
government and other services increased by 0.8%, contributing 0.21 percentage points
Industries contributing to the 1.7% growth in August 2017 were:
computer programming, (which increased by 5.1%, contributing 0.16 percentage points)
food and beverage activities, (which increased by 5.4%, contributing 0.15 percentage points)
accounting activities, (which increased by 11.8%, contributing 0.15 percentage points; this follows a decrease for the industry in the three months ending August 2016)
And
retail trade, which increased by 2.1%, contributing 0.15 percentage points.
In the next part of my presentation, I’m going to move a little Beyond GDP – which is a phrase which is used to describe a broader set of measures to aggregate GDP which particularly include more social and environmental data.
Firstly, I’d like to introduce the economic Well-being dashboard – which has recently been introduced into the Economic Well-being release which is published a few working days after the Quarterly National Accounts.
I think these data provide a useful info-graphic style dashboard which shows the trends in each variable, and most also have a green or red arrow showing whether they are moving in a positive or negative direction. The variables on the dashboard generally take a household or per capita perspective – e.g. on the top row we have GDP per head, net national disposable income per head, Real household disposable income per head, median equivalised disposable income and real household expenditure per head. There are also wealth characteristics in the dashboard on the 2nd row, and I’d like to draw your attention to the middle chart on the 2nd row - which is a behavioural question. This uses data from the Eurobarometer Consumer Survey, conducted by GFK on behalf of the European Commission and asks about people’s perceptions of their financial situation. As you can see both this measure and the one directly above it – RHDI per head are showing a fall over the latest quarter or year.
So, again I recommend you have a look at the economic wellbeing release each quarter if you are interested in monitoring these wider measures of economic performance.
Moving onto my 3rd topic - inflation
Inflation: As I’m sure you are aware, there has been relatively steady increase in the 12-month rate of CPI and CPIH from its very low base during 2015. Growth in CPIH is shown as the line on this chart.
And the bars decompose the change in CPIH inflation into the different import-intensity brackets of the goods and services within the CPIH basket.
To explain a bit further – the import intensity of goods and services in the basket have been calculated by using the ONS Input-Output analytical tables on a product by product basis. The import spending share by households of each product is then converted into the proportions of these products that are in the CPIH basket. The movement in the CPIH can then be broken down into the different import intensity groups of these products and services.
So, on the chart – the main contribution to the CPIH comes actually from the 0-10% bracket of goods and services (dark blue) – which actually is mostly services as these are provided and consumed domestically. E.g. restaurants, hotels, insurance, education.
But as I hope you can see, the orange sections (energy) and the light blue and green sections (30-40% and 40%) either put more upward or downward pressure on the overall inflation rate. Goods in these categories include food, household goods, and clothing.
In recent months, there has been an increase in the contribution to overall CPIH from these sections compared to late 2016 when these sectors didn’t contribute much to CPIH at all.
In future months I am hoping to extend this analysis of import intensity by including import spending on products in the supply chain and to use the more recent input output analytical tables relating to 2013 which were published a few months ago.
The measure of inflation which is internationally comparable to other European countries, is the CPI index for the UK, as this fits the definition of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). This chart uses Eurostat data to compare inflation rates across a selection of countries.
The dotted line shows the UK rate of inflation, which as you can see was very similar to other EU countries during 2015 and 2016, as all countries experienced a pick-up in inflation from historically low bases. This is potentially related to the growth in oil prices and other commodities during this time. However, the UK has seen continued upward movement in the rate of CPI into 2017, whereas inflation in Germany, France and Italy has fallen back.
As we saw in the previous slide, some of this upward pressure is coming from the higher import intensity product groups.
This a chart that we included in our Prices Economic Commentary in August, looking at the relative house price growth since the economic downturn across various regions, compared with AWE regular pay growth and CPIH.
As you can see the regions all experienced a dip in average house prices between end of 2007 and 2009, when some regions and London in particular began to recover fairly strongly. So by the middle of 2017, London, SE and SW had outpaced growth in wages and inflation since the downturn, and the other regions shown here had mostly regained their levels from 2007, but had grown less quickly than inflation and wages.
And this is the equivalent chart, focussing on Cardiff and Wales average house prices, and the same line for AWE regular pay and CPIH. Here, you can see the house price recovery has been stronger in Cardiff than Wales as a whole, although average prices for Wales have only just returned to pre-downturn peak 10 years ago. Cardiff’’s average prices are around 15% higher than Sept 2017.
I did the same analysis for Bristol city Local Authority and average prices there were around 40% higher than 2007 prices.
3 months to August 2017 – released mid-October.
This chart is an interactive graphic from the latest October Labour market economic commentary, looking at the flow of workers between quarter 1 and quarter 2 2017.
This chart shows estimated gross flows, that is, the total inflow or outflow for working-age employment, unemployment and inactivity from one calendar quarter to the next. The period covers January to March 2017 (Quarter 1) and April to June 2017 (Quarter 2).
Approximately 3.22 million people move across the labour market either by moving from one pool to another or changing employment every quarter. More people left inactivity (937,000) than any other stock.
The number of people who moved from inactivity to employment was 540,000. This was higher than those who moved from unemployment to employment, which was 439,000.
Note:
Stocks for January to March 2017 and April to June 2017 may not equal the published figures due to attrition and changes in working age population.
This chart compares four-quarter moving average flows as a percentage of working-age population since April to June 2003 with the latest available period (April to June 2017).
What is causing the current high employment rate?
Flows into employment from inactivity are quite high (light blue) (1.32% of the working population) but are offset by almost equal flows from employment to inactivity (e.g. retirement) (1.38% of the working population) (Yellow).
But outflows from employment to unemployment are very low – Blue line at bottom – and now below pre-downturn levels. 290,000 people (0.70% of working age population) moved from employment to unemployment, the lowest since the earliest comparable period in 2001.
And inflows to employment from unemployment are line in middle - In the three months to June 2017, on average 459,000 people (1.12% of the working age population) moved from unemployment to employment.
This gross outflow from employment is at its lowest since the three months to March 2006.
Nominal average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain increased by 2.2% including bonuses in August 2017, and by 2.1% excluding bonuses compared with a year earlier. In real terms, average weekly earnings fell by 0.4% on the previous year (excluding bonuses) and by 0.3% (including bonuses). The recent fall (since the three months to March 2017) in real wages is due to higher rates of inflation, which has outpaced nominal wage growth.
Finally – I will cover a few slides on productivity.
Productivity well below it’s pre-crisis trend level, and has remained fairly stagnant since 2009.
UK facing a “productivity puzzle”.
productivity would have been 20.8% higher had it followed this pre-downturn trend
These first estimates of labour productivity indicate that the gap between the UK and the rest of the G7 remained relatively stable in 2016, narrowing slightly from 16.1% to 15.4% in output per worker terms.
The chart shows the ratio of UK GDP per worker to that in the other G7 economies and to the G7 excluding the UK. It indicates that the UK’s productivity performance improved relative to all of the G7 countries in 2016 (Yellow bar slightly lower than the blue bar – ie gap smaller with the UK), with the largest improvements relative to Canada, Germany and France. On this basis, the UK is fifth out of seven in the G7 on both a GDP per hour worked and GDP per worker basis.
On a per hour basis, the gap between the UK and the rest of the G7 is broadly similar, at around 15.1%. More details on these results can be found in the main International comparisons of productivity release.
Note: Industry data exclude real estate, but whole economy average includes real estate.
This chart shows the labour productivity (output per hour) of each industry (the height of the bar) as well as the share of hours worked in that industry (the width of the bar). Industries are ordered from the most productive on the left-hand side, to the least productive on the right-hand side, and the UK average for the period is also shown for reference (dotted line).
the UK produced £33.49 per hour in the year to Quarter 2 2017 (in current prices), labour productivity varied substantially across industries. The most productive UK industries are located in production – mining and quarrying, water transport, and pharmaceutical manufacturing – and in industries that account for a relatively small share of total hours. Services account for a large share of the hours worked at below average productivity.
The Productivity bulletin highlights that there are some high-productivity services industries that – compared with other high-productivity industries – have a relatively large share of hours. Industry 64 (financial services excluding insurance) and industry 69 (legal and accounting activities) each have above average productivity and a share of hours greater than 1.5%. This kind of analysis should help shed light on the allocation effect of whether moving resources to more or less productivity industries is having an effect on overall productivity levels and growth rates.
So, in summary on my 5 topics, I leave you with these the main messages:
GDP has slowed in the first half of 2017 compared to previous years, and most other EU and G7 countries. There are a number of reasons for this and there is a complex picture of some areas of positive growth (for example, services) being offset by areas of negative growth (such as construction).
The Economic wellbeing dashboard highlights a range of wider measures of welfare.
Import intensive goods have been putting upward pressure on CPIH during 2017.
Analysis of the flows of labour market movements can show that there is less of an outflow from employment than in previous years.
and we have experienced 2 consecutive quarters of falling productivity in 2017, and the productivity puzzle continues with a large gap between the UK’s productivity performance in other G7 countries.
I hope you have found these data interesting and given you some ideas of where to find more material and economic analysis of our data. I will be shortly joining the panel to help answer any questions you may have.
Thank you very much.
Replace + add London.
Replace with SE, SW, Wal, Lon, GB
2007-2016 Vale of Glamorgan 12%, Cardiff 10%. Monmouthshire, Anglesey and Bridgend only other areas with increase in (nominal) price.
Wrexham, Swansea, Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, Neath Port Talbot and Blaenau Gwent all 9-12% below 2007 level.
England up 15%, City of Bristol up 30%.
Development of Regional Short Term Statistics (also called ‘RUSTY’)
Users tell us they want more timely, more granular and more flexible regional economic statistics. These requirements were also captured in the Bean Review.
As a result (as part of the devolution project) a work stream was established to develop Regional Short Term Indicators for England ie produce quarterly real GVA growth estimates for the regions of England
Related statistics already exist for Scotland, NI and Wales
Scotland has GDP (not strictly GDP but they call it GDP)
NI has the Northern Ireland Composite (the media refer to it as GDP)
Wales doesn’t cover the whole Economy so they have 2 x releases – one for the index of production and index of construction, one for the index of market services. The underlying data are processed by ONS staff on behalf of WG (but WG publish the bulletins).
VAT data are potentially hugely beneficial for the project. MBS and RSI are national surveys with no regional stratification. Therefore at a regional level the data can be ‘lumpy’ due to sample rotation (ie sampled businesses moving between regions). VAT has the potential to resolve this ‘lumpiness’. We have recently received VAT data and are in the early stages of assessing it.
Using UK deflators as we don’t have regional deflators
Currently have a historic series back to 2013 but hope to take this back further to include the recession (ideally back to 2005 if possible)
The Dec 18 publication will/should be for Q3 2018