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Economic Forum in Belfast
This document provides an agenda and summaries for the ONS Economic Forum on September 21, 2016. The agenda includes welcome and introduction, presentations on the UK and Northern Ireland economic situations, and discussions on productivity and the labour market. Summaries are given for recent revisions to UK national accounts data in the Blue Book and Pink Book, short-term economic indicators for the UK, and upcoming ONS publications. Plans for the Blue Book 2017 are also outlined, including new developments. Statistics on the Northern Ireland economy, including GVA, incomes, wellbeing, industry structure and qualifications are then presented.
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Economic Forum in Belfast
- 1. ONS Economic Forum Email:ONS.economic.forum@ons.gov.uk Twitter: @ONS #ONSeconomy WIFI code for Parliament Building: NIAssembly 1 ONS Economic Forum 21 September 2016
- 2. ONS Economic Forum– September 2016 09.45 Introduction & Welcome 10.00 An overview of the UK Economic Situation 10.40 Economic Statistics for Northern Ireland 11.10 Refreshment Break 11.50 Productivity and Labour Market 12.30 Close 2 Agenda ONS Economic Forum 21 September 2016
- 3. Introduction and welcome JoeGrice Director and Chief Economist 3 ONS Economic Forum 21 September 2016
- 4. An overview ofthe UK Economic Situation Darren Morgan National Accounts Coordination ONS Economic Forum 21 September 2016 4
- 5. Before-EU Referendum Result Blueand Pink Book 2016 5 ONS Economic Forum 21 September 2016
- 6. GDP Current Price(£m): previously published v Blue Book 2016 Levels revised up, average per year: 1997-2009 +£49.6bn (4.3%), 2010-2014 +£9.1bn (0.6%), 2015 +£4.9bn (0.3%) 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 2000000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Second estimate of GDP: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates 6
- 7. Real GDP (%):previously published v Blue Book 2016 1998 to 2015: average growth unrevised at +2.0% -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Revision Second estimate of GDP: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 Final Blue Book 2016 Chained Volume Measure Estimates
- 8. Real GDP, Seas.Adj. (%): previously published v Blue Book 2016 Q2 1997 to Q1 2016: average quarterly growth rate unrevised at +0.5% average quarterly revision -0.01 percentage points, absolute revision 0.10 percentage points -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 1997Q2 1998Q2 1999Q2 2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q2 2004Q2 2005Q2 2006Q2 2007Q2 2008Q2 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2 2014Q22015 Q2 Revision Second estimate of GDP: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 Final 2016 Chained Volume Measure Estimates8
- 9. GDP economic downturnand recovery • 2008/09 downturn: same length and similar depth, was -6.1%, now -6.3% • strength of recovery: • GDP pre-downturn peak re-attained in Q3 2013, one quarter later • in Q1 2016: GDP 7.0% above pre-downturn peak, was 7.2% • in Q1 2016: GDP per capita 0.9% above pre-downturn peak, was 1.1% 9
- 10. Balance of Payments:Current Account (£m): previously published v Pink Book 2016 -120000 -100000 -80000 -60000 -40000 -20000 0 20000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Revision Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates Quarter 4 (Oct-Dec) 2015 Current Price Estimates 10
- 11. Balance of Payments:Net International Investment Position (£m): previously published v Pink Book 2016 -500000 -400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0 100000 200000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Revision Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates Quarter 4 (Oct-Dec) 2015 Current Price Estimates 11
- 12. Household and NPISHsaving ratio (%): previously published v Blue Book 2016 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Revision Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates Quarter 4 (Oct-Dec) 2015 Current Price Estimates 12
- 13. After-EU Referendum Result ShortTerm Indicators 13 ONS Economic Forum 21 September 2016
- 14. UK Employment /Unemployment Rate (aged 16-64,%) 14 Employment rate 74.5% for May – July 2016 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 2007 JUN 2008 JUN 2009 JUN 2010 JUN 2011 JUN 2012 JUN 2013 JUN 2014 JUN 2015 JUN 2016 JUN 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2007 JUN 2008 JUN 2009 JUN 2010 JUN 2011 JUN 2012 JUN 2013 JUN 2014 JUN 2015 JUN 2016 JUN Unemployment rate 4.9% for May – July 2016
- 15. 15 771,000 people claimingunemployment related benefits in August 2016 UK Total Claimant Count SA thousands of people, seasonally adjusted 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2007 JUN 2008 JUN 2009 JUN 2010 JUN 2011 JUN 2012 JUN 2013 JUN 2014 JUN 2015 JUN 2016 JUN
- 16. 16 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Jan-Mar 2007 Sep-Nov 2007 May-Jul 2008 Jan-Mar 2009 Sep-Nov 2009 May-Jul 2010 Jan-Mar 2011 Sep-Nov 2011 May-Jul 2012 Jan-Mar 2013 Sep-Nov 2013 May-Jul 2014 Jan-Mar 2015 Sep-Nov 2015 May-Jul 2016 752,000 job vacanciesfor June - August 2016 These estimates exclude the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Sector UK Total Vacancies thousands of people, seasonally adjusted
- 17. UK CPI (12 Month% change) 17 CPI July 2016 year-on-year growth 0.6% CPI August 2016 year-on-year growth 0.6% -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2007 JUL 2008 JUL 2009 JUL 2010 JUL 2011 JUL 2012 JUL 2013 JUL 2014 JUL 2015 JUL 2016 JUL
- 18. 18 UK PPI (12 Month% Change) Input PPI August 2016 year-on-year growth 7.6%, compared with a rise of 4.1% in the year to July 2016 Output PPI August 2016 year-on-year growth 0.8%, compared with a rise of 0.3% in the year to July 2016
- 19. Index of Production& Index of Manufacturing chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted 19 Index of Production month-on-month growth +0.1% Index of Manufacturing month-on-month growth -0.9% Index 2013=100 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 2007JAN 2008JAN 2009JAN 2010JAN 2011JAN 2012JAN 2013JAN 2014JAN 2015JAN 2016JAN Index of Production Index of Manufacturing
- 20. Index of Construction chainedvolume measures, seasonally adjusted 20 Index of Construction month-on-month growth flat Index 2013=100 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan
- 21. Construction - neworders volume of new orders (£m), constant prices, seasonally adjusted 21 Increased by 8.6% compared with Quarter 1 2016 Increased by 7.5% compared with Quarter 2 2015 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q1 2016 Housing Other work All new work
- 22. 22 Retail sales Augustmonth-on-month fall of 0.2% Retail sales July month-on-month increase of 1.9% 2013=100 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 2013 Oct 2014 Apr 2014 Oct 2015 Apr 2015 Oct 2016 Apr Retail Sales Index Chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted
- 23. Imports and Exports £m,seasonally adjusted 23 Increase in exports and a fall in imports 35 000 37 000 39 000 41 000 43 000 45 000 47 000 49 000 51 000 2014 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Exports Imports
- 24. Trade Balance £m, seasonallyadjusted 24 Trade balance improved -6 000 -5 000 -4 000 -3 000 -2 000 -1 000 2014 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
- 25. Trade Prices non seasonallyadjusted 25 Import and export prices tracking each other … counter intuitive? 2013=100 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Export Prices Import Prices UK USA 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Export Prices Import Prices
- 26. Forthcoming publications towatch out for… 26 Date Release Period 30th September Index of Services July 2016 27th October GDP Preliminary Estimate Quarter 3 2016 25th November Business Investment Preliminary Release Quarter 3 2016 23rd December Quarterly National Accounts Quarter 3 2016 Balance of Payments Quarter 3 2016 Consumer Trends Quarter 3 2016
- 27. Blue Book 2017– Main developments • Corporate bonds interest payments • Changes to the source data for Actual rental • Enhancements to survey data • Wider product breakdown in acquisitions and disposals of Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) • Enhanced detail for Financial corporations • New data on number of drug users to inform estimates of illegal activities • New survey sources for education in Trade in services • More detailed sector breakdown • Separation of Households and Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH) • More detailed presentation of the Financial corporation section • Improvements to prices and volume methods after the last base year 27
- 28. Economic Statistics forNorthern Ireland Richard Prothero (ONS) James Gillan (NISRA) 28 ONS Economic Forum 21 September 2016
- 29. Contents • Presentation ofONS/NISRA data by Richard Prothero – Economic Output (GVA) – Household Incomes – Wellbeing – Industrial Structure – Qualifications – Trade • Presentation of additional NISRA data by James Gillan – Economic Output. – Labour Market • Future plans for ONS and NISRA by James Gillan
- 30. Producing NI economicstatistics • ONS meets inter/national and sub-national obligations – Access to large across-UK data sources • NISRA meets additional devolved needs – Statutory authority to collect business data • Relationship Governed by:- – UK Statistics and Registration Services Act (2007) – UK Concordat on Statistics “The administrations will work together to ensure the provision of coherent, reliable, consistent and timely UK-wide statistics”
- 31. Northern Ireland hasperformed less well than the UK since 2008 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Northern Ireland Yorkshire and… North East North West Scotland East of England West Midlands Wales South West East Midlands South East London Increase in nominal GVA GVA Growth before and since Economic Downturn 2008- 2014 2002- 2008 The 2008-2014 data shows how countries and English regions fared through the downturn and subsequent recovery. The 2002-2008 data shows how the regions fared in a similar period prior to the downturn. Note: due to the economic downturn, annual output in most countries and regions reached a temporary peak in 2008 before declining in 2009. Source: ONS
- 32. GVA growth inNorthern Ireland by area Source: ONS 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Belfast Outer Belfast East of Northern Ireland North of Northern Ireland West and South of Northern Ireland Average annual growth in Nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) 2002-2008 2008-2014
- 33. GVA per head 5070 90 110 130 150 170 190 Wales North East Northern Ireland Yorkshire and The Humber West Midlands East Midlands North West South West East of England Scotland South East London UK=100 Nominal GVA per head, 2014 GVA per head GVA per hour workedSource: ONS
- 34. Household Income In NorthernIreland, relative performance in GDHI is similar to relative performance in GVA per hour worked. Source: ONS 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Northern Ireland North East Wales Yorkshire and The Humber West Midlands North West East Midlands Scotland South West East of England South East London UK=100 Gross Disposable Household Incomes per head, 2014
- 35. GDHI per headby area 1997-2014 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 UK=100 Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) per head, 1997-2014 N Ireland Outer Belfast East of Northern Ireland Belfast North of Northern Ireland West and South of Northern Ireland Source: ONS
- 36. Personal Wellbeing Source: ONS HowSatisfied are you with your life nowadays? Where 0 is 'not at all satisfied' and 10 is 'completely satisfied'. Proportion of residents in each Threshold Average (Mean) rating Low Medium High Very High 0-4 5-6 7-8 9-10 UK 4.6 14.2 52.1 29.2 7.65 Northern Ireland 4.4 12.8 44.0 38.7 7.85 England 4.6 14.3 52.4 28.8 7.64 Wales 5.2 14.4 50.7 29.7 7.63 Scotland 4.4 13.9 52.1 29.6 7.68
- 37. Personal Wellbeing • Analysison UK data shows health, employment status and relationship status as important factors related to personal well-being - but this can’t explain Northern Ireland result. • Other potential factors – Country differences - Globally evidence of differences in responses to wellbeing surveys across countries. – Expectations – The improved situation post-1998 may be reflected in ongoing positive expectations. – High social capital - ONS social capital report showed that within UK people living in Northern Ireland reported the highest levels for feelings of belonging to their neighbourhood (73%), that people around them were willing to help others (80%) and that the people in their neighbourhood can be trusted (73%).
- 38. Population Growth Since 2008, NorthernIreland has seen growth in both its working age population and total population. By contrast, Wales and North- East England had a decline in working age population between 2008- 2015. Source: ONS -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% North East Wales North West Scotland Yorkshire and The Humber Northern Ireland West Midlands South West East Midlands South East East London Population Growth 2008-2015 all ages 16-64 yrs
- 39. Industrial Specialisations 0.0 0.51.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Mining and quarrying Financial and insurance activities Information and communication Professional, scientific and technical activities Administrative and support service activities Real estate activities Electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply Transportation and storage Accommodation and food service activities Construction Arts, entertainment and recreation Other service activities Education Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles Human health and social work activities Manufacturing Water supply; sewerage and waste management Agriculture, forestry and fishing Public administration and defence; compulsory social… Location Quotients, 2014 (based on GVA data) relative to UK excluding London relative to UKSource: ONS
- 40. Qualifications 0 10 2030 40 50 60 North East Northern Ireland West Midlands Yorkshire and The Humber North West East Midlands East Wales South West South East Scotland London % share of 16-64 year olds Highest Level of Qualifications, 2015 Level 4 (degree level) None Source: ONS UK = 35.8% Level 4, 9.0% None
- 41. Exports of Goods Expressing exportsas a share of GVA gives a guide as to relative export intensity. Note, however, this is not the same as saying the exports were directly responsible for the share of GVA shown. Source: HMRC 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Value of Goods Exports, 2015 (expressed as a percentage of GVA)
- 42. Exports of Goodsby Industry 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Other commodities nes Animal and Vegetable Oils Mineral Fuels Crude Materials Beverages and Tobacco Manufactured Goods Miscellaneous Manufactures Food and Live Animals Chemicals Machinery and Transport Share of Goods Exports by Industry, NI and UK, 2015. NI UK Source: HMRC
- 43. Exports of Services Expressing exportsas a share of GVA gives a guide as to relative export intensity. Note, however, this is not the same as saying the exports were directly responsible for the share of GVA shown. Source: ONS 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Value of Services Exports, 2014 (expressed as a percentage of GVA)
- 44. NI businesses externalsales destinations 2011 - 2014 £3.3 £11.4 £3.4 £11.6 £3.7 £12.1 £3.6 £12.7 £2.0 £1.9 £2.2 £2.2 £3.7 £4.0 £4.1 £4.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Sales/£billions GB sales ROW Sales REU Sales ROI Sales Source: NISRA
- 45. The local perspective Dr.James Gillan NISRA Economic and Labour Market Statistics 45
- 46. Comparison of NIComposite Economic Index (NICEI) with UK, Scotland & ROI GDP (Q1 2016) (2012=100) 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Index(2012=100) NI Composite Economic Index UK GDP Scotland GDP ROI GDP ROI growth from Q4 2014 to Q1 2015 = 20.3% Note that the NICEI is not directly equivalent to GDP 46 Source: NI Composite Economic Index, ONS Quarterly National Accounts, Scottish Government Quarterly National Accounts , CSO Ireland Quarterly National Accounts
- 47. Northern Ireland (NI)experienced the sharpest fall and slowest recovery compared to Scotland & the UK as a whole (2012 = 100) 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Index(2012=100) Comparison of NICEI with UK, Scotland GDP (to Q1 2016) NI Composite Economic Index UK GDP Scotland GDP NI peak to trough = -10.6% Scotland peak to trough = -4.0% UK peak to trough = -6.3% 47 Source: NI Composite Economic Index, ONS Quarterly National Accounts, Scottish Government Quarterly National Accounts
- 48. 105.8 110.2 110.8 110.9 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 2002 2003 20042005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Index(2002=100) NI vs UK total employee jobs (2002-2016) UK Northern Ireland Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI), ONS (UK)
- 49. 110.4 99.2 112.6 116.1 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 116 118 2002 2003 20042005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Index(2002=100) Public Private In June 2016, the NI public sector made up 28% of all employee jobs and the Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI) Index of Northern Ireland public and private sector employee jobs
- 50. 50 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2008 2009 20102011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 MANUFACTURING CONSTRUCTION SERVICES OTHER IND. ALL INDUSTRIES Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI) Annual change in employee jobs (2008-2016)
- 51. NI Sectoral changein employee jobs – downturn (2008-2012) 51 Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI) -25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Health activities Office administrative activities Computer programming, consultancy & related activities Activities of head offices Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products Crop and animal production, hunting & related activities Activities auxiliary to financial services & insurance Sports activities,amusement & recreation Waste collection activities Repair & installation of machinery & equipment Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles/cycles Civil engineering Education Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products Social work activities without accommodation Employment activities Public administration & defence Retail trade, except of motor vehicles & motorcycles Construction of buildings Specialised construction activities Change 2008-2012
- 52. NI Sectoral changein employee jobs – recovery (2012-2016) 52 Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI) -25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Public administration & defence Financial activities excl. Insurance/pension funding Manufacture of electrical equipment Manufacture of beverages & tobacco products Specialised construction activities Postal and courier activities Scientific research & development Civil engineering Other manufacturing Manufacture of rubber & plastic products Retail trade, except of motor vehicles/cycles Manufacture of food products Activities of head offices Legal and accounting activities Computer programming & consultancy activities Food & beverage service activities Social work activities without accommodation Office administrative activities Employment activities Health activities Change 2012-2016
- 53. Source: NISRA QuarterlyEmployment Survey (NI) NI Sectoral change in employee jobs (2002-2016) -25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Public administration and defence Manufacture of wearing apparel Manufacture of textiles Construction of buildings Specialised construction activities Manufacture of computer products Postal and courier activities Manufacture of rubber & plastic products Manufacture of non-metallic mineral products Manufacture of electrical equipment Legal and accounting activities Services to buildings & landscape activities Real estate activities Food & beverage service activities Social work activities without accommodation Computer programming & consultancy activities Employment activities Office administrative activities Retail trade, except of motor vehicles/cycles Health activities Change 2002-2016
- 54. 109.1 113.1 110.5 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 2002 2003 20042005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Index(2002=100) Unadjusted at June each year Index of NI full-time and part-time employee jobs NI Full-Time NI Part-Time NI Total Jobs In June 2016, NI full-time jobs made up 66% of total jobs and part-time jobs made up 34% of total jobs. Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI)
- 55. -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 2008 2009 20102011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Emp Source: LFS Change in employees and self employed from Jan-Mar 2008 (Not seasonally adjusted, May-Jun 2016
- 56. -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 2008 2009 20102011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Male FT Total Emp Source: LFS Change in employees and self employed from Jan-Mar 2008 (Not seasonally adjusted, May-Jun 2016
- 57. -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 2008 2009 20102011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Male PT Male FT Total Emp Source: LFS Change in employees and self employed from Jan-Mar 2008 (Not seasonally adjusted, May-Jun 2016
- 58. -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 2008 2009 20102011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Female FT Male PT Male FT Total Emp Source: LFS Change in employees and self employed from Jan-Mar 2008 (Not seasonally adjusted, May-Jun 2016
- 59. -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 2008 2009 20102011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Female PT Female FT Male PT Male FT Total Emp Source: LFS Change in employees and self employed from Jan-Mar 2008 (Not seasonally adjusted, May-Jun 2016
- 60. -60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 2008 2009 20102011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 S/E Female PT Female FT Male PT Source: LFS Change in employees and self employed from Jan-Mar 2008 (Not seasonally adjusted, May-Jun 2016
- 61. 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% Rate Percent of peoplein employment on a “zero hours contract”, UK Regions Source: Labour Force Survey, April – June 2016 61
- 62. Programme for GovernmentFramework – Indicators & Measures 62 Indicator Measure LabourMarket 17. Reduce economic inactivity Economic inactivity rate excluding students 32. Increase economic opportunities for our most deprived communities The employment rate of 16-64 year olds by deprivation quintile 33. Reduce underemployment % of people working part time who would like to work more hours 14. Improve the skills profile of the population The proportion of the workforce in employment with qualifications at level 1 and above, level 2 and above, level 3 and above, and level 4 and above 16. Increase the proportion of people in work Seasonally adjusted employment rate (16-64) 18. Increase the proportion of people working in good jobs A Good Jobs Index 34. Improve regional balance of economic prosperity through increased employment Employment rate by geographic area Economy 20. Increase the size of the economy Private Sector NICEI (Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index) 21. Increase the competitiveness of the economy External sales 22. Increase innovation in our economy Regional innovation ranking 42. Increase quality of life for people with disabilities Average life satisfaction score of people with disabilities
- 63. Expenditure per capitaon Final Demand components (2012) 63 15,278 16,993 16,035 6,660 5,430 5,893 2,072 4,247 4,119 NI UK Scotland Household Final Consumption Expenditure Government Final Consumption Expenditure Gross Capital Formation Source: NISRA, ONS & Scottish Government Supply-Use Tables
- 64.
- 65. NISRA releases &future plans • Upcoming NISRA releases :- – Labour Market bulletin (monthly) – NI Composite Economic Index - Q2 2016 (Oct) – Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2016 (Oct) – Annual Business Inquiry / Exports 2015 (Dec) • Future NISRA plans – Digital Economy Bill / use of new sources – Data Science 65
- 66. ONS releases &future plans • Upcoming ONS releases :- – Labour Market bulletin (monthly) – Regional GVA (Dec) – Regional / Sub-regional Productivity (Jan) • Future ONS plans – Household Final Consumption Expenditure – Short Term Indicators for English Regions – Flexible Geographies 66
- 67. ONS Economic Forum Email:ONS.economic.forum@ons.gov.uk Twitter: @ONS #ONSeconomy WIFI code for Parliament Building: NIAssembly 67 ONS Economic Forum 21 September 2016
- 68. The labour marketand productivity Dr Philip Wales Head of Productivity 68 ONS Economic Forum 21 September 2016
- 69. Labour market andproductivity • Headline labour market quantities data • Key differences of the NI labour market • Earnings in the NI and UK labour markets • Productivity 69
- 70. The labour marketin Northern Ireland 70 43.0% 13.8% 3.5% 39.4% 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Thousands Full time Employment Part time Employment Unemployed Inactive Labour market status of the NI population – all 16+ Source: Labour Force Survey
- 71. Unemployment rate 71 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1992 19941996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 United Kingdom Northern Ireland% Source: Labour Force Survey Note: Headline unemployment rate (among those aged 16+)
- 72. Employment rate 72 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 1992 19941996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 United Kingdom Northern Ireland% Source: Labour Force Survey Note: Headline employment rate (among those aged 16-64)
- 73. Inactivity rate 73 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 1992 19941996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 United Kingdom Northern Ireland% Source: Labour Force Survey Note: Headline inactivity rate (among those aged 16-64)
- 74. Labour market andproductivity Relative to the UK, Northern Ireland’s labour market currently has a: • A higher rate of inactivity • A lower employment rate • Similar unemployment rates These are broadly consistent with historical trends: over the lifetime of the LFS, NI’s employment and inactivity rates have been persistently 4 percentage points weaker than in the UK as a whole. 74
- 75. Labour market andproductivity • Headline labour market quantities data • Key differences of the NI labour market – 1. Inactivity – 2. Employment • Earnings in the NI and UK labour markets • Productivity 75
- 76. Key features ofNI labour market 76 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 United Kingdom Northern Ireland% Inactivity – Northern Ireland & the UK Source: Labour Force Survey Note: Headline inactivity rate (among those aged 16-64)
- 77. Key features ofNI labour market 77 Inactivity – by age group (2006 Q2) Source: Labour Force Survey 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 United Kingdom Northern Ireland% Rolling five year age groups
- 78. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 16 19 2225 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 United Kingdom Northern Ireland% Key features of NI labour market 78 Inactivity – by age group (2016 Q2) Source: Labour Force Survey Rolling five year age groups
- 79. Key features ofNI labour market 79 Contributions to inactivity by Reason, Northern Ireland – by age group (2016 Q2) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 18 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 Looking after the family LT sick/disabled Other Total Rolling five year age groups % Source: Labour Force Survey, Note: ’Other’ includes retired individuals, students and other reasons
- 80. Key features ofNI labour market 80 Inactivity by age – UK vs Northern Ireland (Q2 2016) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 Percentage points Total Rolling five year age groupsSource: Labour Force Survey, Note: ’Other’ includes retired individuals, students and other reasons
- 81. Key features ofNI labour market 81 Contributions to inactivity by age – UK vs Northern Ireland (Q2 2016) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 Percentage points Other Total Rolling five year age groupsSource: Labour Force Survey, Note: ’Other’ includes retired individuals, students and other reasons
- 82. Key features ofNI labour market 82 Contributions to inactivity by age – UK vs Northern Ireland (Q2 2016) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 Percentage points Long-term sick as disabled (would not like work) Other Total Rolling five year age groupsSource: Labour Force Survey, Note: ’Other’ includes retired individuals, students and other reasons
- 83. Key features ofNI labour market 83 Contributions to inactivity by age – UK vs Northern Ireland (Q2 2016) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 Percentage points Looking after the family (would not like work) Long-term sick as disabled (would not like work) Other Total Rolling five year age groupsSource: Labour Force Survey, Note: ’Other’ includes retired individuals, students and other reasons
- 84. Labour market andproductivity • Headline labour market quantities data • Key differences of the NI labour market – 1. Inactivity – 2. Employment • Earnings in the NI and UK labour markets • Productivity 84
- 85. Employment rate 85 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 1992 19941996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 United Kingdom Northern Ireland% Source: Labour Force Survey Note: Headline employment rate (among those aged 16-64)
- 86. Key features ofNI labour market 86 Employment rate – by age (year to 2016 Q2) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 United Kingdom Northern Ireland% Employed Source: Labour Force Survey Rolling five year age groups
- 87. Key features ofNI labour market 87 Full time share of employment 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 Rest of the UK Northern Ireland% Full-time Source: Labour Force Survey
- 88. Key features ofNI labour market 88 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Rest of the UK Northern Ireland% Part-time Source: Labour Force Survey Part time share of employment
- 89. Labour market andproductivity • Headline labour market quantities data • Key differences of the NI labour market • Earnings in the NI and UK labour markets • Productivity 89
- 90. Earnings 90 Median earnings byregion: 2005, 2010, 2015, UK=100 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 London South East Scotland East North East North West South West West Midlands Yorkshire and The… Northern Ireland Wales East Midlands 2015 2010 2005 UK Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 91. Earnings 91 Distribution of earnings:1997 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 92. Earnings 92 Distribution of earnings:1997 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 £3.00 £5.00 £7.00 £9.00 £11.00£13.00£15.00£17.00£19.00£21.00£23.00£25.00£27.00£29.00 Northern Ireland, 1997 United Kingdom, 1997 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/- 20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 93. Earnings 93 Distribution of earnings:1997 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £
- 94. Earnings 94 Distribution of earnings:1998 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 95. Earnings 95 Distribution of earnings:1999 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 96. Earnings 96 Distribution of earnings:2000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 97. Earnings 97 Distribution of earnings:2001 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 98. Earnings 98 Distribution of earnings:2002 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 99. Earnings 99 Distribution of earnings:2003 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 100. Earnings 100 Distribution of earnings:2004 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 101. Earnings 101 Distribution of earnings:2005 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 102. Earnings 102 Distribution of earnings:2006 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 103. Earnings 103 Distribution of earnings:2007 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 104. Earnings 104 Distribution of earnings:2008 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 105. Earnings 105 Distribution of earnings:2009 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 106. Earnings 106 Distribution of earnings:2010 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 107. Earnings 107 Distribution of earnings:2011 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 108. Earnings 108 Distribution of earnings:2012 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 109. Earnings 109 Distribution of earnings:2013 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 110. Earnings 110 Distribution of earnings:2014 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 111. Earnings 111 Distribution of earnings:2015 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 112. Earnings 112 Distribution of earnings:2015 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 £3.00 £5.00 £7.00 £9.00 £11.00£13.00£15.00£17.00£19.00£21.00£23.00£25.00£27.00£29.00 Northern Ireland, 2015 United Kingdom, 2015 Density, % Gross Hourly Earnings (+/- 20 pence), £ Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings
- 113. Labour market andproductivity • Headline labour market quantities data • Key differences of the NI labour market • Earnings in the NI and UK labour markets • Productivity 113
- 114. Productivity 114 Regional Productivity –nominal terms 75 80 85 90 95 100 West and South of Northern Ireland North of Northern Ireland East of Northern Ireland Outer Belfast Belfast Northern Ireland GVA per job filled, 2014, UK=100 GVA per job filled, 2014, UK=100 Source: ONS sub-regional productivity estimates 0 50 100 150 Wales North East Northern Ireland Yorkshire and The Humber West Midlands East Midlands North West South West Scotland East of England South East London
- 115. Productivity 115 Regional Productivity –distribution of firm-level labour productivity 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Density Productivity (£ thousands per worker) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Density Productivity (£ thousands per worker) 2008 2011 2014 Northern Ireland Great Britain Source: Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Business Survey Note: Includes Private, non-financial firms.
- 116. Productivity 116 Regional Productivity –composition of the top 10% of firms by productivity 48.3% 46.3% 50.5% 13.9% 14.6% 16.6% 12.8% 13.2% 11.8% 17.2% 18.7% 15.9% 7.7% 7.2% 5.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2008 2011 2014 29.0% 35.0% 32.1% 7.4% 5.9% 8.1% 27.7% 25.4% 25.6% 28.1% 21.5% 24.8% 7.8% 12.1% 9.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2008 2011 2014 Northern Ireland Great Britain Source: Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Business Survey Note: Includes Private, non-financial firms.
- 117. Productivity 117 Regional Productivity –intra-industry distribution of productivity -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Productivity, £ thousands -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 50 100 150 200 Productivity, £ thousands Northern Ireland Great Britain Source: Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Business Survey, ONS analysis Note: Includes Private, non-financial firms. Manufacturing Construction Whole. & retail of mot. vehicles Accomm & food services Transport & storage Info & comms Real estate Prof., Sci., & Tech. activities Admin & support activities
- 118. Labour market andproductivity • UK labour market is recovering strongly from the economic downturn: labour market in NI appears to have a similar headline unemployment experience, but has been weaker in terms of its inactivity and employment rate performance • The UK’s income distribution has changed markedly over the last ten years, with a growing concentration of workers at or around the national minimum wage. This is broadly consistent with the experience in Northern Ireland – although the prevalence of low pay is more marked here than in the UK as a whole • The average level of nominal productivity in Northern Ireland is notably lower than in the UK average. However, there are a range of firm-level performances both within and between industries in NI, mirroring the range for the rest of GB. 118
- 119. Questions 119 ONS Economic Forum 21September 2016
- 120. ONS Economic Forum Email:ONS.economic.forum@ons.gov.uk Twitter: @ONS #ONSeconomy WIFI code for Parliament Building: NIAssembly 120 ONS Economic Forum 21 September 2016
- 121. Annex 121 ONS Economic Forum 21September 2016
- 122. Key features ofNI labour market 122 Skills (year to 2008 Q2) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Degree or equivalent Higher education A-level or equivalent GCSE A*-C Other qualification No qualification Don't Know Northern Ireland Rest of the UK Educational level % with given educational level Source: Labour Force Survey
- 123. Key features ofNI labour market 123 Skills (year to 2016 Q2) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Degree or equivalent Higher education A-level or equivalent GCSE A*-C Other qualification No qualification Don't Know Northern Ireland Rest of the UK Educational level % with given educational level Source: Labour Force Survey
- 124. Key features ofNI labour market 124 Industrial mix (year to 2008 Q2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Agriculture Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity and gas Water supply Construction Wholesale and retail trade Transportation and storage Accommodation and food Information and communication Financial services Real estate activities Professional services Support admin Public admin Education Health Arts and entertainment Other service activities Northern Ireland Rest of the UK Industry (main job) % in given industry
- 125. Key features ofNI labour market 125 Industrial mix (year to 2016 Q2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Agriculture Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity and gas Water supply Construction Wholesale and retail trade Transportation and storage Accommodation and food Information and communication Financial services Real estate activities Professional services Support admin Public admin Education Health Arts and entertainment Other service activities Northern Ireland Rest of the UK Industry (main job) % in given industry
- 126. Earnings 126 Distribution of earningsgrowth: 2015 0 5 10 15 20 25 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Density, % Growth in Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-0.5 percentage points), %
- 127. Key features ofNI labour market 127 Prevalence of self-employment 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Rest of the UK Northern Ireland%Self-employed
- 128. Levels of inactivityby age 128 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 Looking after the family LT sick/disabled Other Total Average of rolling five year age groups