Edinburgh Economic Forum, 17 June 2019

Economic Forum - Edinburgh
17 June 2019
Twitter: @ONS #Econstats
17 June 2019

Agenda
10:00 – 10:30 Registration with tea and coffee
10:30 – 10:35 Welcome and introduction – Ed Palmer
10:35 – 10:45 Statistics for the public good – Ed Palmer
10:45 – 11:05 Understanding the UK economy – Amina Syed
11:05 – 11:30 Recent changes to economic statistics from a regional perspective – Richard Prothero
11:30 – 11:40 Question and answer session
11:40 – 11:55 Coffee break
11:55 – 12:15 Public finances for Scotland – Joint presentation with Foyz Khatun and Iain Pearce Scottish Government
12:15 – 12:25 Regional GDP – James Scruton
12:25 – 12:40 Question and answer session and close
12:40 – 13:30 Lunch and Networking

Welcome and Introduction
Ed Palmer
17 June 2019
Deputy Chief Economist, Economic Advice and Analysis
Office for National Statistics

Statistics for the public good
Deputy Chief Economist, Economic Advice and Analysis
economic.advice@ons.gov.uk
Ed Palmer

To discuss today
• UK Statistics Authority and the Office for National Statistics: our status and
role
• What the ONS does
• Why we are transforming
• Some examples of how we are transforming

The status and role of the UK
Statistics Authority
• An independent statutory body
• Operating at arm’s length from government as a non-ministerial
department, reporting directly to the UK’s Parliaments and Assemblies
• In law (the Statistics and Registration Services Act 2007) our objective is:
“promoting and safeguarding the production and publication of official
statistics that serve the public good”
• And that public good includes:
• informing the public about social and environmental matters
• assisting in the development and evaluation of public policy
• regulating quality and publicly challenging the misuse of statistics

Who are we?
• Economic, public policy and population statistics
• Other government Departments also provide statistics, e.g. energy, health,
environment
• Our responsibility is for coherence of system as a whole
• Census provider in England and Wales
• Office locations in Newport, Titchfield, London
UK Statistics
Authority
Other
government
stats producers
Office for
National
Statistics
Office for
Statistics
Regulation

Explaining the statistics you see in the news:
10 June 2019

And a lot more:
GDP growth Inflation (Un)employment Wages
Trade Public finances
Regional and country
economic data
Crime
Births, deaths and
marriages
Population Migration Health and social care
Personal income and
wealth
Well-being Environment …and more

Three ways of calculating GDP
Expenditure
GDP(E)
How much
is spent
Output
GDP (O)
How much
is produced
Income
GDP (I)
How much
is earned

Three ways of calculating GDP
Expenditure
GDP(E)
How much is spent
Use of credit
card data
Retail sales
Output
GDP (O)
How much is
produced
Use of VAT data
Purchases
Survey
Income
GDP (I)
How much is
earned
Use of PAYE &
Self-Assessment
data

Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence
• National Accounts and Beyond GDP
• Productivity and the modern economy
• Regional and labour market statistics
• www.escoe.ac.uk
Economic statistics analysis, research

Economic forum - Edinburgh
Understanding the UK economy
Economic Advisor
Dr Amina Syed
17 June 2019

Contents
• GDP
• Labour Market
• Inflation
• Productivity
• Economic well-being
Economic forum- Edinburgh

Real GDP increased by 0.5% in Quarter 1 2019
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
Quarter on quarter (LHS) Quarter on previous year's quarter (RHS)
% %

Growth in services output drives GDP growth in Quarter 1 2019
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1
Services Production Construction Agriculture, forestry and fishing GDP
%, percentage points

The UK economy was the fifth-fastest growing G7 economy in 2018 with signs of a
loss of momentum in the wider global economy
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
US Canada France Germany UK Japan Italy
2018 GDP growth 2017 to 2018 change in GDP growth
%, percentage points

Labour Market

The gap between unemployment and vacancies has been narrowing
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Vacancies Unemployment level
Thousands

The percentage of self-employment in total employment had an upward trend since
2000
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
%

Pay for employees (including bonuses) increased by 1.3% on the year when adjusted
for inflation
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total pay (nominal) Total pay (real)
%

Job changers experience higher pay growth compared with job stayers
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Stayers Changers
%

Younger people are more likely to change jobs
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
16 to 20 years 21 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 49 years 50 to 64 years 65 years and over

Most workers change jobs within the same region or country
2018
2017 North EastNorth West
Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
South
West East London South East Wales Scotland
Northern
Ireland
North East 82.0 0.7 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.2
North West 2.8 83.8 2.8 2.2 3.2 1.1 1.0 2.1 1.3 4.4 0.7 0.7
Yorkshire and the
Humber 3.0 2.4 80.5 5.1 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.9 0.3
East Midlands 1.0 1.4 3.9 74.5 4.8 1.4 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.0
West Midlands 1.2 2.4 2.1 5.0 77.4 3.1 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.2 1.2 0.2
South West 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.9 81.9 1.2 1.6 2.6 3.3 0.6 0.5
East 0.4 1.7 2.4 6.0 2.9 2.1 77.8 4.2 3.3 1.5 0.8 0.9
London 2.3 1.6 1.9 1.2 3.2 2.2 7.3 74.8 8.2 2.1 1.6 0.6
South East 4.3 2.2 1.8 3.1 3.0 5.3 5.4 9.1 76.7 1.8 1.0 0.8
Wales 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.0 82.9 0.2 0.2
Scotland 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.0 91.3 0.2
Northern Ireland 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 95.4

Overeducation rate stood at 16.1% in 2017
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
%

Overeducation was highest in London in 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
North East North West Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East of
england
London South East South West Wales Scotland Northern
Ireland
%

Inflation

12-month growth rates of CPIH and input PPI increased, while output PPI fell in April
2019
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2010 APR 2011 APR 2012 APR 2013 APR 2014 APR 2015 APR 2016 APR 2017 APR 2018 APR 2019 APR
CPIH (RHS) Input PPI (LHS) Output PPI (LHS)
% %

London is the most expensive region, with average house prices close to £200,000
higher than any other region or country
2017 2018 Change
London £480,000 £478,000 -0.4%
South £286,000 £294,000 +2.8%
Midlands £183,000 £192,000 +4.9%
Wales £151,000 £157,000 +4.0%
North £150,000 £155,000 +3.3%
Scotland £143,000 £149,000 +4.2%
Northern Ireland £128,000 £133,000 +3.9%

Productivity

Productivity, as measured by output per hour, was 18.3% beneath its pre-downturn
trend
70
80
90
100
110
120
130 1994Q1
1994Q3
1995Q1
1995Q3
1996Q1
1996Q3
1997Q1
1997Q3
1998Q1
1998Q3
1999Q1
1999Q3
2000Q1
2000Q3
2001Q1
2001Q3
2002Q1
2002Q3
2003Q1
2003Q3
2004Q1
2004Q3
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3
2016Q1
2016Q3
2017Q1
2017Q3
2018Q1
2018Q3
Output per hour Output per worker Output per hour (trend) Output per worker (trend)
Index, Q4 2007 = 100

London and the South East were the only regions above the UK output per hour average
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
North East North West Yorkshire
and the
Humber
East
Midlands
West
Midlands
East London South East South West Wales Scotland Northen
Ireland
2016 2017 UK
Index, UK = 100

Economic Well-being

Economic well-being indicators at a glance

Find out more
• Quarterly economic commentary
• Labour market economic commentary
• Economic review
• Analysis of job changers and stayers
• Overeducation and hourly wages in the UK labour market
• Prices economic commentary
• Labour productivity
• Measures of National Well-being Dashboard

Recent changes to
economic statistics
from a regional
perspective
Head of Centre for Subnational Analysis
Richard Prothero
17th June 2019

ONS Devolution Programme
A programme to improve ONS regional and local statistics.
• Regional Short Term Indicators
• Country and Regional Public Sector Finances
• Regional Balanced GVA
• Regional & Sub-Regional Household Final Consumption Expenditure
• Exports of Services Data
• Productivity
• Small Area Data
• Flexible Geographies
• Investigating Uses of Administrative Data
• Regional Prices
• Stakeholder Engagement

December 2017:
First publication of experimental balanced measure, GVA(B)
Combines income and production measures using
quality metrics
Uses administrative VAT turnover data for latest year output
estimates
Greater industry detail in nominal (value) and real (volume)
terms
NUTS1 – 81 industries
Regional prices used for deflation of housing rental
Implied deflators derived from value and volume
estimates
First estimates produced for combined authorities
Along with local authorities and local enterprise
partnerships (LEPs)
Regional Gross Value Added
December 2018
Balanced GVA (and components) now have National Statistics
Status
Following assessment by the Office for Statistics
Regulation
Now uses VAT administrative turnover data for lower-level
areas
Virtual census of business activity at individual site (local
unit) level
Greater industry detail in nominal (value) and real (volume)
terms
Local Authority (LA) – 34 industries
LA data used to compile combined authorities, city regions,
LEPs and other areas of economic interest in nominal and real
terms

Regional Gross Value Added
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
'Real' GVA Growth by NUTS 2 Area.
North Eastern Scotland Highlands and Islands Eastern Scotland
West Central Scotland Southern Scotland
The constant price GVA(B) data
have been derived by deflating the
current price estimates for 112
industries using national industry
deflators obtained from the UK
gross domestic product (output)
system. These deflators are
consistent with the UK National
Accounts, Blue Book 2018 and they
are used because in most cases,
regional price indices are currently
not available.
The Eurostat Manual on Regional
Accounts (2013) recommends that
in the absence of regional prices the
use of national deflators is
acceptable, provided that deflation
occurs at a minimum level of 38
industries.

Productivity Outputs
Headline results using Regional GVA(B) data.
Regional and Subregional Productivity in the UK
•Headline measures of productivity by NUTS1,2,3, LEPs & City Region.
Productivity by Region (NUTS1) by Industry
•Provides an industry split for NUTS 1 consistent with headline productivity
estimates.
Firm Level Productivity Analysis.
Understanding Spatial Labour Productivity in the UK
• Analysis of labour productivity across different areas of the UK, including
discussion on the sources and drivers of productivity differences between
areas.

Labour Productivity
• While many areas have relatively similar productivity
levels, labour productivity is higher around London and
the South East of England, and Edinburgh/Aberdeen
and lower in more isolated rural areas.

Labour Productivity
In line with UK picture, many
regions have not seen much
productivity growth since 2010.
In Highlands & Islands, and North
Eastern Scotland, productivity
declined (hours worked increase
larger than GVA increase).
Productivity has increased in
Southern Scotland, West Central
Scotland and Eastern Scotland
(GVA increase larger than hours
worked increase)

Distribution of Firm Level Productivity
Firm productivities in a country
or region can be influenced by
industry structure.
This is important around
Aberdeen.
But more commonly,
differences between areas
reflect differences between
firms within industries,
particularly service sectors.

Productivity Within Sectors
Differences in productivity levels
within sectors between regions
can be large.
Productivity levels in Knowledge
Intensive Service Industries are
highest in London, SE and
Scotland

• While many areas have relatively similar productivity levels, labour productivity is higher around
London and the South East of England, and Edinburgh/Aberdeen and lower in more isolated rural
areas.
• Within single industries we can observe large differences in average productivity levels between
different parts of the country, particularly in service industries.
• There are some important factors internal to firms that influence firm-level productivities (such the
ownership of a firm and whether it exports), but these don’t tend to explain regional differences in
productivity.
• Each firm operates in its own locale with, for example, a specific mix of external factors such as local
factor markets, agglomeration benefits, firm competition, consumer tastes and local spending power
and these factors can affect firm-level productivities and ultimately average productivity in an area.
Examining Spatial Productivity Differences in the UK

Exports of Services
First published in July 2016. Latest publication February 2019.

Exports of Services
Data for Scotland, 2017, by functional category.
Data is also available by NUTS 3 area and city region.

High Streets in Great Britain.
Findings for Scotland
Identified 457 high streets in Scotland.
Addresses on Scottish High Streets are
59% residential, 29% retail, 10% offices.
11% of businesses (local units) are on a high street.
6% growth in businesses but 8% decline in retail businesses.
9% decline in employment in retail sector
24% increase in accommodation and food activities; 13%
increase in other service activities,
11% of population live within 200m of a high street.
population growth near high streets was higher (3.7%) than
in non-high street areas (1.9%)
Percentage change data from 2012-2017
High Streets output published on 6th June,
Joint project between Ordnance Survey and ONS

Developments - Regional household expenditure measures.
In September 2018, we published experimental regional estimates of household spending
across the whole UK for the first time.
These were aimed at showing users what is possible; the production of these estimates
has involved making some very broad assumptions using currently available data sources,
some of which have limited sample sizes, and so strong caution is advised when
interpreting the findings.
Over the next few years, we aim to identify and introduce new data sources that will allow
us to improve the quality of these experimental figures and further understand how
changes in sampling and the assumptions made can affect the results; we will use these
initial results to consult with users on how best we can develop them in the future.

Q & A session
© Photo by Vicky Gu on Unsplash

Refreshment break

Economic Forum, Edinburgh
Public Sector Division, ONS
Foyz Khatun
17 June 2019
Public finances for Scotland:
Country and Regional Public Sector Finances

Overview
• What are the country and regional public sector
finances?
• Statistics on Scotland
• Comparison with GERS
• Future plans

What are the country and regional public
sector finances?
• First published in May 2017
• Provides information on public sector revenue and expenditure
for NUTS1 countries and regions of the UK – as part of the UK
• Based on methods initially developed by Scottish Government
in their GERS publication
• Not reflective of devolved budgets

Main aggregates
• Public sector revenue: mainly taxes, but also social
contributions, interest, dividends – measured on a ‘who pays’
basis
• Public sector expenditure: mainly wages and salaries, goods
and services, social benefits, expenditure on fixed capital –
measured on a ‘who benefits’ basis
• Net fiscal balance: gap between public sector expenditure and
public sector revenue

-40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000
London
South East
East of England
South West
East Midlands
Northern Ireland
North East
Yorkshire & the H.
West Midlands
Wales
Scotland
North West
£ million
Net fiscal balance for 2017/18, by NUTS1 countries and regions
North Sea revenue - population share North Sea revenue - geographic share
Source: Office for National Statistics

Public sector revenue, expenditure and net fiscal balance per head for 2017/18, by NUTS1
countries and regions
North Sea revenue
geographic share
North Sea revenue
population share
North Sea revenue
geographic share
North Sea revenue
population share
Northern Ireland 9,255 9,275 14,195 4,940 4,920
Wales 8,691 8,710 13,085 4,394 4,375
North East 8,938 8,963 12,604 3,666 3,641
North West 9,452 9,473 12,336 2,884 2,863
Scotland 11,230 10,986 13,682 2,452 2,696
West Midlands 9,308 9,328 11,582 2,274 2,254
Yorkshire and the Humber 9,416 9,446 11,580 2,164 2,134
East Midlands 9,883 9,906 11,146 1,263 1,240
South West 10,685 10,706 11,553 868 847
United Kingdom 11,454 11,454 12,090 636 636
East of England 11,936 11,958 10,970 -966 -988
South East 13,427 13,447 11,169 -2,258 -2,278
London 17,090 17,110 13,185 -3,905 -3,925
2017/18 (£s)
Public sector revenue per head Public sector
expenditure per
head
Net fiscal balance per head

0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18
£ million
Public sector revenue and expenditure, Scotland, 1990/00 to 2017/18
Total current receipts (incl. North Sea revenues by population share) Total current receipts (incl. North Sea revenues by geographic area)
Total managed expenditure

What affects revenue and expenditure?
• Population and demographics
• Economic activity – businesses, employment,
investment, etc.
• Consumer behaviour
• Regional prices
• Reserved vs devolved powers
• Many other things!

Most revenue raised in Scotland is from VAT
20.9%
21.7%
21.6%
21.4%
20.6%
18.7%
19.4%
20.5%
19.9%
19.8%
16.3%
16.7%
16.9%
17.7%
17.4%
8.3%
8.2%
8.1%
7.7%
7.3%
7.5%
7.7%
7.9%
7.6%
7.3%
5.0%
5.4%
5.8%
6.5%
6.4%
4.3%
4.6%
4.8%
4.8%
4.4%
3.7%
3.8%
3.9%
3.7%
3.8%
6.3%
2.5%
0.1%
0.5%
2.3%
9.1%
9.9%
10.5%
10.2%
10.5%
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
Main sources of revenue in Scotland, 2013/14 to 2017/18
Income tax VAT National Insurance Contributions Excise duties
Gross operating surplus Onshore corporation tax Business rates Council tax
North Sea revenue (geographic) Other revenue

Most expenditure occurs under social protection
32.9%
33.3%
33.5%
32.4%
31.9%
16.9%
16.9%
17.4%
17.7%
17.4%
11.1%
11.1%
11.3%
11.6%
11.3%
8.4%
7.9%
8.2%
8.8%
9.1%
8.3%
7.9%
7.9%
8.0%
8.2%
7.7%
7.7%
6.8%
7.6%
7.5%
4.4%
4.4%
4.3%
4.3%
4.3%
3.7%
4.1%
4.0%
3.8%
3.8%
6.5%
6.8%
6.5%
5.9%
6.4%
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
Main categories of functional spending for Scotland, 2013/14 to 2017/18
Social protection Health Education Economic affairs General public services
Accounting Adjustments Defence Public order and safety Other functions

Comparison with GERS
2017/18
• Main differences from
publication timing therefore
different source data used
(UK PSF, HMT’s CRA etc.
• Some differences in
apportionment of revenue,
although most methods
consistent
• Differences in expenditure
methodology
Source: Office for National Statistics, Scottish Government
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Total revenue: excluding North Sea revenue
GERS 51,089 52,959 53,942 56,608 58,630
CRPSF 51,138 53,209 54,096 57,132 59,324
-49 -250 -154 -524 -694
North Sea revenue (geographic share)
GERS 3,446 1,377 50 266 1,327
CRPSF 3,446 1,373 53 259 1,426
0 4 -3 7 -99
Total managed expenditure
GERS 67,767 68,640 69,492 71,354 73,398
CRPSF 67,969 68,894 69,656 71,519 74,015
-202 -254 -164 -165 -617
Net fiscal balance (excluding North Sea revenue)
GERS -16,677 -15,682 -15,549 -14,746 -14,768
CRPSF -16,831 -15,685 -15,560 -14,387 -14,691
154 3 11 -359 -77
Net fiscal balance (including North Sea revenue)
GERS -13,232 -14,304 -15,499 -14,480 -13,441
CRPSF -13,385 -14,312 -15,507 -14,128 -13,265
153 8 8 -352 -176

Future plans
• Aim to publish 2018/19 data in Winter 2018/19
• Continue to improve methods and harmonise with other
publications
• SR19 aims include:
• introducing guide for producing sub-NUTS1 statistics –
further collaboration with combined authorities
• further development of methods (e.g. workplace based
estimates) and use of admin data
• National Statistics accreditation

Developing Devolved
Finance Statistics
Iain Pearce
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
Scottish Government
@ScotGovOCEA

Overview
• Background
• Aims of the new publication
• Content

Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland
• First published in 1992, The Scottish Office
• Became Scottish Government publication in 1999
• Accredited National Statistics in 2004
• Major review in 2007
• Reassessed for National Statistics in 2014
• Comparison of all revenue raised in Scotland and all expenditure for
Scotland
• Limited in how it can report on devolved powers

Timeline
Scotland Act provided new tax and spending powers to the
Scottish Government
Budget Process Review Group report from Scottish
Parliament
Scottish Fiscal Commission becomes independent
forecaster
Consultation with users of Scottish economic statistics
2016
2017
2018

Scotland’s changing fiscal landscape

New publication
• What do users want?
• Focus on:
• Devolved government spending
• New powers
• New measures of spend
• Time series data

Aims for the publication
• Provide a single source for information on both Scottish Government
and Local Government finances
• Clarity around linkages in funding arrangements
• Consistent time series

What else are we doing?
Other Scottish Government work:
• Fiscal Framework Outturn report
• Improved and more detailed budget documents
• Medium Term Financial Strategy

What will we be publishing?
Reporting
• Total funding, by source
• Total spending:
• By purpose (e.g., health,
education)
• By economic category
Reporting for
• Scottish Government
• Local Government
• Overall devolved government
And working towards:
• Public corporations
• Overall devolved public sector

Example content – total funding
£0
£5
£10
£15
£20
£25
£30
£35
£40
£45
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
£billion
Grants Scottish Government taxes Local Government taxes User charges Borrowing Other

Example content – total spending
£0
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
£60
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Repayment of debt Capital investment Other Grants and subsidies Purchases of goods and services Pay

Introducing Regional GDP
Head of monthly and regional GDP
James Scruton
17 June 2019

What am I
going to
cover?
What data do we currently have on the Scottish
economy?
Why regional GDP?
Challenges
About regional GDP
Limitations
Future developments

What data do we currently have on the Scottish economy?
National Estimates of GDP (ONS)
Regional estimates of GVA (ONS)
Scottish GDP (Scottish Government)

• Meets user demand
for quicker estimates
of the economies of
the regions and
nations of the UK
• In line with
recommendations
from the Bean review
of economic statistics
Why Regional GDP?

• Data sources
• Methodological challenges
• Emerging systems
• Consistency with other
estimates

About regional GDP
• Calculated using millions of VAT returns
• In some instances alternate data sources will
be available e.g. construction
• Data will be provided by region and industry
• Coherent with national estimates of GDP and
regional accounts
• Published in late summer/ early August

• Regional apportionment
• Deflation
• Timing
• Data sources
• Initial publication will be
experimental

Future
developments
Consultation with users
Fine-tuning our methods
Combine this work with the flexible geography project
and develop the capability to provide quarterly “real”
GVA estimates for any user-specified area
Improvements to data sources e.g. construction

Q & A session
and Close

Edinburgh Economic Forum, 17 June 2019

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Edinburgh Economic Forum, 17 June 2019

Editor's Notes