The document provides an overview of the UK Statistics Authority and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It discusses:
1) The ONS transforms economic statistics to keep up with changing data sources and user needs, using new data like VAT returns and payroll data to improve measures like GDP and wages.
2) The ONS is working to provide more granular economic data at regional and local levels using sources like VAT and improving estimates for areas like balanced regional GVA.
3) Regional economic performance and productivity varies in the UK. The ONS is working to better understand differences in growth, productivity, incomes and fiscal balances between UK regions and countries.
The document discusses a presentation given by Ed Palmer from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on UK statistics and the ONS's role and activities. Some key points:
- The ONS is an independent government body that produces official statistics to inform public policy and debate in an objective and trusted way.
- It is responsible for key economic statistics like GDP, inflation, employment as well as data on populations, health, and other social and environmental topics.
- The ONS is transforming how it produces statistics to take advantage of new data sources like administrative records and improve timeliness, detail, and accuracy of estimates.
- Examples provided include using VAT data to improve regional GDP estimates and exploring use
This document provides an agenda and summaries for the ONS Economic Forum on September 21, 2016. The agenda includes welcome and introduction, presentations on the UK and Northern Ireland economic situations, and discussions on productivity and the labour market. Summaries are given for recent revisions to UK national accounts data in the Blue Book and Pink Book, short-term economic indicators for the UK, and upcoming ONS publications. Plans for the Blue Book 2017 are also outlined, including new developments. Statistics on the Northern Ireland economy, including GVA, incomes, wellbeing, industry structure and qualifications are then presented.
This document provides an agenda and summaries for an ONS Economic Forum event in Cardiff, Wales on November 2, 2017. The agenda includes presentations on ONS statistics and their role in serving the public good, understanding the UK economy, recent changes to ONS economic statistics from a regional perspective, and an analysis of the Welsh economy in the UK context. Summaries are also provided of presentations on ONS's role and status, transforming economic statistics through new data sources and skills, measuring GDP through various approaches, and understanding issues like productivity and the importance of the services sector to the UK economy.
The document provides an agenda and summaries for an ONS Economic Forum event in Bristol on October 25th. It includes welcome remarks, four presentations on ONS statistics and the UK/regional economies, and a Q&A session. Specifically, it will discuss ONS's role producing statistics, understanding the UK economy at national and regional levels, recent changes to ONS economic statistics from a regional perspective, and the economy of the West of England region.
The ONS Economic Forum is an event aimed at analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of ONS economic statistics.
Each event consists of an overview of UK economic statistics along with a session focused on a topic of particular interest. Today's special topic is 'shaping the future of consumer price statistics'.
The document discusses a forum held by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on economic statistics. It includes the agenda for the forum which covers various talks on understanding the UK economy, recent changes to economic statistics from regional perspectives, and how the media reports on statistics. One talk discusses how ONS is transforming economic statistics through using new data sources like VAT and payroll data and improving measures like GDP, inflation, employment and productivity. Another talk provides an overview of recent UK economic data from ONS on topics such as GDP growth, inflation, employment and productivity. A third talk focuses on changes ONS has made to economic statistics from a regional perspective in the UK and Northern Ireland.
The ONS Economic Forum is an event aimed at analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of ONS economic statistics.
Each event consists of an overview of UK economic statistics along with a session focused on a topic of particular interest.
The document discusses a presentation given by Ed Palmer from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on UK statistics and the ONS's role and activities. Some key points:
- The ONS is an independent government body that produces official statistics to inform public policy and debate in an objective and trusted way.
- It is responsible for key economic statistics like GDP, inflation, employment as well as data on populations, health, and other social and environmental topics.
- The ONS is transforming how it produces statistics to take advantage of new data sources like administrative records and improve timeliness, detail, and accuracy of estimates.
- Examples provided include using VAT data to improve regional GDP estimates and exploring use
This document provides an agenda and summaries for the ONS Economic Forum on September 21, 2016. The agenda includes welcome and introduction, presentations on the UK and Northern Ireland economic situations, and discussions on productivity and the labour market. Summaries are given for recent revisions to UK national accounts data in the Blue Book and Pink Book, short-term economic indicators for the UK, and upcoming ONS publications. Plans for the Blue Book 2017 are also outlined, including new developments. Statistics on the Northern Ireland economy, including GVA, incomes, wellbeing, industry structure and qualifications are then presented.
This document provides an agenda and summaries for an ONS Economic Forum event in Cardiff, Wales on November 2, 2017. The agenda includes presentations on ONS statistics and their role in serving the public good, understanding the UK economy, recent changes to ONS economic statistics from a regional perspective, and an analysis of the Welsh economy in the UK context. Summaries are also provided of presentations on ONS's role and status, transforming economic statistics through new data sources and skills, measuring GDP through various approaches, and understanding issues like productivity and the importance of the services sector to the UK economy.
The document provides an agenda and summaries for an ONS Economic Forum event in Bristol on October 25th. It includes welcome remarks, four presentations on ONS statistics and the UK/regional economies, and a Q&A session. Specifically, it will discuss ONS's role producing statistics, understanding the UK economy at national and regional levels, recent changes to ONS economic statistics from a regional perspective, and the economy of the West of England region.
The ONS Economic Forum is an event aimed at analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of ONS economic statistics.
Each event consists of an overview of UK economic statistics along with a session focused on a topic of particular interest. Today's special topic is 'shaping the future of consumer price statistics'.
The document discusses a forum held by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on economic statistics. It includes the agenda for the forum which covers various talks on understanding the UK economy, recent changes to economic statistics from regional perspectives, and how the media reports on statistics. One talk discusses how ONS is transforming economic statistics through using new data sources like VAT and payroll data and improving measures like GDP, inflation, employment and productivity. Another talk provides an overview of recent UK economic data from ONS on topics such as GDP growth, inflation, employment and productivity. A third talk focuses on changes ONS has made to economic statistics from a regional perspective in the UK and Northern Ireland.
The ONS Economic Forum is an event aimed at analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of ONS economic statistics.
Each event consists of an overview of UK economic statistics along with a session focused on a topic of particular interest.
The ONS Economic Forum is an event aimed at analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of ONS economic statistics.
The document summarizes recent changes to ONS economic statistics from a regional perspective in the UK. Richard Prothero discusses the ONS devolution program which has improved regional and local statistics in several areas. This includes introducing balanced regional GVA estimates, regional household expenditure data, short term regional indicators, and exploring uses of administrative data. Prothero also analyzes real GVA growth, manufacturing sectors, and labor productivity at the regional level in Northern Ireland and the UK since 1999.
The document summarizes recent economic statistics and analysis from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) relevant to the West of England region. It presents data on regional gross value added (GVA) growth rates showing the West of England LEP had average annual growth of 1.3% from 1998-2017, below the UK average. Sub-regional productivity analysis is shown comparing NUTS1, NUTS2, NUTS3 and LEP geographies. New service exports data by NUTS1 region is also highlighted.
This document provides an economic overview and indicators for Europe, the US, Japan, and Germany from October 2014. It summarizes that GDP growth forecasts were lowered slightly for Europe and Japan, while the US forecast improved slightly. Industrial confidence and consumer confidence in Europe continued to decline in September. The German IFO Business Climate Index fell again, indicating the German economy is slowing. Charts show trends in GDP, inflation, unemployment, and other economic indicators for various regions.
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, and Japan in June 2013. In Europe, GDP forecasts remained stable but consumer and business confidence improved slightly. German business confidence rose after declines, and the economy remains on track. US growth prospects are uncertain due to slowing indicators and fiscal issues. Japan's GDP growth forecast improved considerably. The document also summarizes recent advertising expenditure forecasts from Zenith, predicting a return to growth in major markets in 2013.
Deflation:
- Regional IEA are compiled in both current and constant dollars (C$ and K$)
- National IEA are also compiled in both current and constant dollars
- Deflators are applied to expenditure components to derive the constant dollar estimates
28 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 30/04/10
These are the slides presented at Surgeons Quarter , Edinburgh for the afternoon ESWG Seminar on Monday 17 June 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of economic statistics and regional analysis.
Economic indicators and Monthly Overview January 2015SappiHouston
The document provides an economic outlook for January 2015. It summarizes forecasts for GDP growth in Europe, the US, and Japan in 2015 and 2016. GDP growth is expected to be 1.5% in Europe in 2015 and 1.8% in 2016. In the US, GDP growth is forecast to be 3.2% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. Japan's GDP growth is projected to be 1.2% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016. The document also reviews recent economic indicator data for the EU, Germany, and other regions.
In April 2020, industrial and services turnover in Spain fell significantly due to COVID-19 lockdown measures. Industrial turnover declined 40.8% year-over-year, the largest decline since records began. Several sectors such as automotive and clothing saw declines over 80%. Hotel stays in May fell 99.2% year-over-year with occupancy down 78.9%. Government debt rose to a historic maximum of €1,234,694 million or 99.2% of GDP in April as tax revenue declined sharply.
1. The Spanish economy is slowing down, with the composite leading indicator decreasing by 0.22 points to 98.58 and below 100 points for 12 months. Spain recorded the third largest economic slowdown among OECD countries in August.
2. Tourism to Spain increased by 1.5% in arrivals but average spending grew only modestly by 1.7%, below last year's growth. Forecasts for Spanish GDP growth in 2019 were reduced to a range of 1.9-2.2%.
3. Industrial production in Spain grew 1.7% in August but this was below the 2015-2017 average, confirming weaker industry dynamics since 2018 due to slowing European and German industry and lower exports.
The presentation summarizes the economy of Albania, including its GDP, growth rate, composition by sector and use, labor force, challenges, and solutions. GDP has increased each year from 2013 to 2015, though the growth rate remains low. The majority of GDP comes from services, followed by industry and agriculture. Most workers are employed in services, though agriculture remains important. Key challenges include underdeveloped agriculture, unemployment, and corruption. Proposed solutions center around increasing investment, education, technology, and efforts to combat corruption.
The Spanish economy showed signs of slowing down in the second quarter of 2018, with GDP growth of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, private consumption and exports declining, and the consumer packaged goods sector shrinking. The labor market also cooled as social security affiliations fell and unemployment rose. Tourism declined significantly in July along with signs of slowing in major European economies. Inflation remained high at 2.2% driven by electricity prices, hampering competitiveness.
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, Japan and Germany. It summarizes that GDP growth forecasts for Europe and Japan were lowered for 2014 but raised slightly for Japan in 2015. Industrial and consumer confidence in the EU improved slightly in October, breaking prior downward trends. The IFO Business Climate Index for Germany continued to fall, indicating a deteriorating outlook for the German economy.
The document summarizes recent economic indicators from Spain:
- In 2016, the Spanish economy grew 3.2% with GDP reaching 1.113 trillion euros. GDP growth in Q4 was 0.7% quarterly and 3% yearly.
- Unemployment declined by 9,355 in February to 3,750,876 persons, its lowest level in 7 years. The ratio of social security affiliates to pensioners is 2.27.
- The public debt was reduced to 99.26% of GDP in 2016 from 99.77% in 2015, though remains above initial estimates.
Metso Interim Review January-September 2013Metso Group
Metso's orders received in Q3 2013 totaled EUR 1,249 million, down 17% year-over-year due to lower demand from mining and pulp/paper customers and negative currency effects. Net sales were EUR 1,579 million, down 10% year-over-year. EBITA was EUR 143 million, down 17% due to lower profitability at Valmet Automotive. For the full year 2013, Metso estimates net sales and EBITA will be significantly lower than 2012 due to challenges at Valmet Automotive and weaker demand.
The document provides an agenda and summaries for an ONS Economic Forum on October 19, 2017. Key presentations will discuss a new GDP publishing model that creates monthly GDP estimates, the impact of changes to the national accounts, understanding the current UK economy, and latest labour market statistics. Labour market figures show employment and the employment rate increased in the latest period while unemployment fell.
The December 2018 QES survey showed that an estimated 10 151 000 people were employed in the formal non-agricultural sector of the South African economy, which is up by 87 000 from 10 064 000 in the previous quarter. The number of people working part-time increased by 37 000 to 1 065 000 in the fourth quarter of 2018. Similarly, the number of people working full-time increased by 50 000 to 9 086 000 in the same quarter.
Read more here: http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=12020
We are glad to share with you the Global M&A Partners' Industrial Insider our quarterly report on M&A transactions. Should you have any queries or M&A project, please contact your local Global M&A Partners industrial sector team member.
These are the slides presented at The Greater London Authority , London for the Economic Forum on Thursday 24 October 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of regional statistics.
The ONS Economic Forum is a quarterly event aimed at City analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of relevant ONS economic statistics, including GDP, the labour market, prices and the public finances.
The document outlines plans to transform UK economic statistics by making greater use of administrative data sources like VAT records. It discusses several ongoing and upcoming changes, including:
1) Improving GDP estimates by incorporating new output and input data and adopting "double deflation" to better account for price changes.
2) Enhancing UK trade statistics by providing more detailed data on goods and services trade by country, commodity, industry and region on a monthly basis.
3) Transforming the UK financial accounts to improve coverage, granularity and counterparty information drawing on regulatory and commercial data sources.
4) Exploring future uses of VAT data to replace business surveys and provide more granular economic indicators, initially focusing
The ONS Economic Forum is an event aimed at analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of ONS economic statistics.
The document summarizes recent changes to ONS economic statistics from a regional perspective in the UK. Richard Prothero discusses the ONS devolution program which has improved regional and local statistics in several areas. This includes introducing balanced regional GVA estimates, regional household expenditure data, short term regional indicators, and exploring uses of administrative data. Prothero also analyzes real GVA growth, manufacturing sectors, and labor productivity at the regional level in Northern Ireland and the UK since 1999.
The document summarizes recent economic statistics and analysis from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) relevant to the West of England region. It presents data on regional gross value added (GVA) growth rates showing the West of England LEP had average annual growth of 1.3% from 1998-2017, below the UK average. Sub-regional productivity analysis is shown comparing NUTS1, NUTS2, NUTS3 and LEP geographies. New service exports data by NUTS1 region is also highlighted.
This document provides an economic overview and indicators for Europe, the US, Japan, and Germany from October 2014. It summarizes that GDP growth forecasts were lowered slightly for Europe and Japan, while the US forecast improved slightly. Industrial confidence and consumer confidence in Europe continued to decline in September. The German IFO Business Climate Index fell again, indicating the German economy is slowing. Charts show trends in GDP, inflation, unemployment, and other economic indicators for various regions.
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, and Japan in June 2013. In Europe, GDP forecasts remained stable but consumer and business confidence improved slightly. German business confidence rose after declines, and the economy remains on track. US growth prospects are uncertain due to slowing indicators and fiscal issues. Japan's GDP growth forecast improved considerably. The document also summarizes recent advertising expenditure forecasts from Zenith, predicting a return to growth in major markets in 2013.
Deflation:
- Regional IEA are compiled in both current and constant dollars (C$ and K$)
- National IEA are also compiled in both current and constant dollars
- Deflators are applied to expenditure components to derive the constant dollar estimates
28 Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada 30/04/10
These are the slides presented at Surgeons Quarter , Edinburgh for the afternoon ESWG Seminar on Monday 17 June 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of economic statistics and regional analysis.
Economic indicators and Monthly Overview January 2015SappiHouston
The document provides an economic outlook for January 2015. It summarizes forecasts for GDP growth in Europe, the US, and Japan in 2015 and 2016. GDP growth is expected to be 1.5% in Europe in 2015 and 1.8% in 2016. In the US, GDP growth is forecast to be 3.2% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. Japan's GDP growth is projected to be 1.2% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016. The document also reviews recent economic indicator data for the EU, Germany, and other regions.
In April 2020, industrial and services turnover in Spain fell significantly due to COVID-19 lockdown measures. Industrial turnover declined 40.8% year-over-year, the largest decline since records began. Several sectors such as automotive and clothing saw declines over 80%. Hotel stays in May fell 99.2% year-over-year with occupancy down 78.9%. Government debt rose to a historic maximum of €1,234,694 million or 99.2% of GDP in April as tax revenue declined sharply.
1. The Spanish economy is slowing down, with the composite leading indicator decreasing by 0.22 points to 98.58 and below 100 points for 12 months. Spain recorded the third largest economic slowdown among OECD countries in August.
2. Tourism to Spain increased by 1.5% in arrivals but average spending grew only modestly by 1.7%, below last year's growth. Forecasts for Spanish GDP growth in 2019 were reduced to a range of 1.9-2.2%.
3. Industrial production in Spain grew 1.7% in August but this was below the 2015-2017 average, confirming weaker industry dynamics since 2018 due to slowing European and German industry and lower exports.
The presentation summarizes the economy of Albania, including its GDP, growth rate, composition by sector and use, labor force, challenges, and solutions. GDP has increased each year from 2013 to 2015, though the growth rate remains low. The majority of GDP comes from services, followed by industry and agriculture. Most workers are employed in services, though agriculture remains important. Key challenges include underdeveloped agriculture, unemployment, and corruption. Proposed solutions center around increasing investment, education, technology, and efforts to combat corruption.
The Spanish economy showed signs of slowing down in the second quarter of 2018, with GDP growth of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, private consumption and exports declining, and the consumer packaged goods sector shrinking. The labor market also cooled as social security affiliations fell and unemployment rose. Tourism declined significantly in July along with signs of slowing in major European economies. Inflation remained high at 2.2% driven by electricity prices, hampering competitiveness.
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, Japan and Germany. It summarizes that GDP growth forecasts for Europe and Japan were lowered for 2014 but raised slightly for Japan in 2015. Industrial and consumer confidence in the EU improved slightly in October, breaking prior downward trends. The IFO Business Climate Index for Germany continued to fall, indicating a deteriorating outlook for the German economy.
The document summarizes recent economic indicators from Spain:
- In 2016, the Spanish economy grew 3.2% with GDP reaching 1.113 trillion euros. GDP growth in Q4 was 0.7% quarterly and 3% yearly.
- Unemployment declined by 9,355 in February to 3,750,876 persons, its lowest level in 7 years. The ratio of social security affiliates to pensioners is 2.27.
- The public debt was reduced to 99.26% of GDP in 2016 from 99.77% in 2015, though remains above initial estimates.
Metso Interim Review January-September 2013Metso Group
Metso's orders received in Q3 2013 totaled EUR 1,249 million, down 17% year-over-year due to lower demand from mining and pulp/paper customers and negative currency effects. Net sales were EUR 1,579 million, down 10% year-over-year. EBITA was EUR 143 million, down 17% due to lower profitability at Valmet Automotive. For the full year 2013, Metso estimates net sales and EBITA will be significantly lower than 2012 due to challenges at Valmet Automotive and weaker demand.
The document provides an agenda and summaries for an ONS Economic Forum on October 19, 2017. Key presentations will discuss a new GDP publishing model that creates monthly GDP estimates, the impact of changes to the national accounts, understanding the current UK economy, and latest labour market statistics. Labour market figures show employment and the employment rate increased in the latest period while unemployment fell.
The December 2018 QES survey showed that an estimated 10 151 000 people were employed in the formal non-agricultural sector of the South African economy, which is up by 87 000 from 10 064 000 in the previous quarter. The number of people working part-time increased by 37 000 to 1 065 000 in the fourth quarter of 2018. Similarly, the number of people working full-time increased by 50 000 to 9 086 000 in the same quarter.
Read more here: http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=12020
We are glad to share with you the Global M&A Partners' Industrial Insider our quarterly report on M&A transactions. Should you have any queries or M&A project, please contact your local Global M&A Partners industrial sector team member.
These are the slides presented at The Greater London Authority , London for the Economic Forum on Thursday 24 October 2019 to provide delegates an understanding of regional statistics.
The ONS Economic Forum is a quarterly event aimed at City analysts, business economists, media, and academic users, to provide an opportunity to discuss issues relating to the measurement of the economy and the range of relevant ONS economic statistics, including GDP, the labour market, prices and the public finances.
The document outlines plans to transform UK economic statistics by making greater use of administrative data sources like VAT records. It discusses several ongoing and upcoming changes, including:
1) Improving GDP estimates by incorporating new output and input data and adopting "double deflation" to better account for price changes.
2) Enhancing UK trade statistics by providing more detailed data on goods and services trade by country, commodity, industry and region on a monthly basis.
3) Transforming the UK financial accounts to improve coverage, granularity and counterparty information drawing on regulatory and commercial data sources.
4) Exploring future uses of VAT data to replace business surveys and provide more granular economic indicators, initially focusing
At our annual productivity forum we will be discussing our key developments and core priorities for the future. The event will include presentations from the Productivity team at the ONS, as well as key users of the labour productivity statistics.
Recent changes to ONS economic statistics - a regional perspective
The ONS has introduced several new regional economic outputs including productivity, public sector finances, service exports, and house prices. Forthcoming outputs include a balanced regional GVA measure and regional short term indicators to provide quarterly real GVA growth estimates for English regions. The document provides details on the new and upcoming regional economic statistics such as methodology, data sources, coverage, and timelines for release.
Euro area-european-union-enhancing-european-cooperation-oecd-economic-survey-...OECD, Economics Department
The 2016 OECD Economic Survey of the European Union and Euro Area finds that while macroeconomic policies have become more supportive, demand remains weak and unemployment is very high. It recommends that countries with fiscal space boost growth through budget support, and that monetary policy stay accommodative. It also suggests speeding up the resolution of non-performing loans, promoting non-bank financing, increasing public investment, reducing regulatory burdens, and enhancing labor mobility through increased recognition of qualifications and portability of pensions. Structural reforms across these areas could significantly increase EU GDP.
Putting well being metrics into policy action, Susan BattlesStatsCommunications
Putting Well-being Metrics into Policy Action, 3-4 October 2019, Paris, France. More information at: http://www.oecd.org/statistics/putting-well-being-metrics-into-policy-action.htm
The OECD Economic Survey of the United Kingdom document makes several key points:
1) GDP growth in the UK has slowed, productivity is stagnant, and inflation has reduced real incomes. However, unemployment is at a 42-year low.
2) Regional productivity gaps exist within the UK, with London being significantly more productive than other areas. Lagging regions rely more on EU funds and have lower skills.
3) Many UK adults and youth have only basic skills. Participation in vocational education is low. Most workers on zero-hours contracts and in low-paid self-employment have low skills.
The document recommends policies to address Brexit challenges, boost regional productivity, and raise skills,
This document provides an agenda and summaries for the ONS Economic Forum on September 21, 2016. The agenda includes welcome and introductions, an overview of the current UK economic situation, economic statistics for Northern Ireland, and discussions on productivity and the labour market. Summaries are given on recent revisions to UK national accounts data, short-term economic indicators for the UK like employment, inflation and construction indexes, and forthcoming ONS publications. Plans for the next Blue Book publication in 2017 are also outlined.
The document discusses the Lisbon objectives to make the EU the most competitive knowledge-based economy by 2010 and issues around falling behind in research and development. It outlines that while services make up a large part of the EU economy, productivity growth in key services has been lower than in the US. Additionally, while services innovation is growing, it differs from traditional models of innovation and is still not well understood. Better measures and policies are needed to support innovation in the changing service economy.
- Brexit could reduce UK GDP by between 2.7-7.7% by 2020 and up to 5.1% by 2030 according to OECD estimates, representing an economic cost of between £1500-5000 per household.
- The UK economy benefits substantially from EU membership and trade, with UK exports of goods and services to the EU representing over 10% of GDP. Leaving the EU could disrupt these trade and investment relationships.
- Immigration from the EU has increased in recent years and played an important role in UK employment and GDP growth, while EU immigrants contribute positively to public finances. Brexit could reduce these immigration flows with economic consequences.
This document summarizes the agenda and presentations for the ONS Economic Forum. The agenda included welcome and introduction by Sumit Dey-Chowdhury, a presentation on the state of the UK economy by Mike Keoghan, a presentation on the role of labour costs and profits in UK inflation by Stefan Ubovic, and presentations on experimental estimates of green jobs and provisional estimates of greenhouse gas emissions. The forum included discussions on recent inflation trends in the UK, the contributions of labour costs and profits to domestic inflation, estimates of employment in green industries, occupations and firms, and latest estimates of UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2022.
The document is an OECD Economic Survey of the United Kingdom from 2015 that discusses economic growth, productivity, and policy recommendations. Some key points:
1) Growth is strong in the UK at 2.6% in 2014, the fastest in the G7, but productivity and wages are still subdued.
2) Recommendations include implementing structural reforms to boost productivity, expanding infrastructure investment including through public-private partnerships, and pursuing fiscal consolidation in a fair manner.
3) The UK has a high level of well-being but needs to strengthen the real sector, ensure sustainable financing, and make macroeconomic policies like fiscal policy and interest rates support balanced and inclusive growth.
UK Trade Statistics Event covering a range of developments, analysis and use of Trade statistics, particularly following the EU referendum and as the UK enters into new trade negotiations following Brexit.
This half day virtual event was opened by ONS senior leaders, offering their perspective on ONS ambitions for business statistics.
Attendees will hear updates from the producers of key UK business surveys, data, statistics and projects, including:
Annual Business Survey (ABS)
Annual Purchases Survey (APS)
Business Enterprise Research and Development (BERD) survey
Government Research and Development (GovERD) survey
Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS)
Regional Gross Domestic Product
Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) and transformation to the Statistics Business Register (SBR)
Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) and other linked business microdata
Secure Research Service (SRS) and transformation to the Integrated Data Service (IDS)
This document provides an analysis of economic performance across Britain from 2010 to 2015 and forecasts for 2015 to 2020. It identifies top performing local economies or "hotspots" in terms of employment, productivity, wages, and personal incomes.
Some key findings are:
- Employment grew strongly across the UK from 2010 to 2015, led by professional services. Productivity growth was disappointing, limiting wage growth.
- Local economies outside London with the fastest employment growth from 2010 to 2015 included Bolsover in the East Midlands. Regions around London are forecast to see the strongest employment growth from 2015 to 2020.
- The local economies with the strongest projected productivity gains from 2015 to 2020 outside London are Mansfield in the East Mid
- The ONS Economic Forum discussed the state of the UK economy and labour market.
- Speakers presented on declining Labour Force Survey response rates, subdued UK GDP growth, strong earnings growth, and measures like real GDI and real income that provide a better view of economic welfare than GDP alone.
- Insights from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings showed ongoing strong earnings inflation across sources, a rightward shift in the earnings distribution, and a record low in low-paying jobs in 2023.
The document provides an agenda and materials for the Cardiff Economic Forum on December 7th, 2022. The agenda includes presentations on the state of the UK economy, ONS plans for subnational statistics, health and labor force impacts of the pandemic in Wales, and insights from the compound semiconductor sector. Presenters are from the ONS, Welsh Government, and Cardiff University. Key topics in the presentations include inflation outlook and monetary policy responses, productivity challenges, model-based early estimates of regional GDP, and more granular subnational data on areas like towns and local authority districts.
The forum offered a Sustainable Goals (SDGs) theme, this ONS Economic Forum explored Inclusive Growth, Inequality and the Value of Urban Greenspace in the context of the SDGs.
The document summarizes the agenda and presentations from the ONS Economic Forum. It includes summaries on the state of the UK economy by the ONS Chief Economist highlighting a slight rise in GDP in January but broadly flat on the quarter. It also includes summaries on owner-occupier housing costs in household cost indices and progress on transforming R&D statistics at ONS. The forum provided insights into the UK economic outlook, drivers of inflation, and improvements in key economic indicators and statistics.
The document summarizes an economic forum held by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It includes presentations on:
- The state of the UK economy, which entered a mild recession in late 2023 while living standards declined. Core inflation remains elevated despite some easing of pressures.
- Labour market data from the Labour Force Survey, which was recently reweighted. This increased population and employment estimates. Rates were also impacted but trends remain clear.
- Questions and answers followed the presentations.
The document summarizes findings related to average hours worked in the UK economy from 1998 to 2022. Key points:
- Average weekly hours worked have decreased for all workers and men, but increased for women over this period.
- The decline in average hours worked partially explains decreases in employment since the pandemic.
- Compositional changes, including a growing share of female and older workers who tend to work fewer hours, explain part of the decline in average hours worked overall.
The document summarizes an event discussing developments beyond GDP metrics for measuring societal progress. It includes the agenda for the event, which has presentations on the UN's 2022 Beyond GDP report, the work of the UN Network of Economic Statisticians, and the European Horizon Project. The event aims to discuss international frameworks and initiatives for developing metrics beyond GDP to provide a more holistic assessment of societal progress.
The document summarizes an economic forum hosted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It includes an agenda with presentations on various topics including public service productivity, transforming price statistics, the state of the UK economy, trends in business dynamism and productivity, and the System of National Accounts 2025. The forum provided an opportunity for the ONS to share updates on key economic statistics and receive feedback.
The document summarizes a presentation on measuring societal progress beyond GDP in the UK. It discusses how the Office for National Statistics is developing broader measures of economic welfare, well-being, and sustainability. These include measures of inclusive income and wealth that account for household production, human capital, the environment, and other factors not captured by GDP. The ONS is also reviewing and improving its measures of national well-being across domains like health, education, environment and developing a new well-being dashboard. The goal is to better inform policymaking by measuring what makes life worthwhile beyond economic outputs.
The document summarizes an event discussing recent UK economic data releases from the Office for National Statistics. It includes an agenda for presentations on the latest GDP data and revisions, trade and balance of payments data, and the ONS approach to measuring GDP. The presentations provide details on revisions to GDP estimates from 1997 to 2021, improvements in measuring globalization and other factors, and explain that revisions are common due to updated data sources and balancing different estimates.
This presentation covers the key question: Why dashboards? Local authorities and other public bodies have largely ended publishing reports and now produce dashboards. What are the factors that have contributed to this change?
This is the first presentation from our Workshop on 21 September 2023 on Dashboards, APIs and PowerBI.
This document summarizes an economic forum hosted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The agenda includes welcome remarks, presentations on the state of the UK economy, consumer price inflation persistence, and changes in labor costs and prices. There will also be a question and answer session. Presenters will discuss revisions to GDP estimates, inflation trends, labor market tightness, and how businesses are passing on higher input costs to consumers. The forum aims to provide insights into key economic indicators and price pressures in the UK.
The document provides guidance on connecting to the StatXplore API using Power BI to retrieve updated data. It discusses querying the API, processing the response, and transforming the data. Key steps include preparing the query body, creating queries in Power BI, accessing labels and values from the response, and linking the labels and values tables to create a single flat table for analysis.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
In April 2022, as the impact of increases in the Cost of Living really came to the forefront, Public Health & Communities, Suffolk County Council published a Cost of Living profile as part of the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment.
Alongside a written Cost of Living report ‘Making ends meet: The cost of living in Suffolk’, an interactive dashboard was also created using Power BI. In addition to internal data flows, publicly available data from sources such as the ONS have been used to provide a rich picture of the current situation for the local community.
The dashboard was developed in order to:
• Provide up to date data and information on the Cost of Living for Suffolk County Council, partner organisations, and members of the public.
• Deliver an interactive tool to allow users to focus on areas most relevant to them.
• Demonstrate that, while increases in the cost of living affect everyone, impact will be greatest for those who are already under financial pressure, exacerbating inequalities.
• Provide a source of actionable insight to support the system with the evidence base needed to support project development, drive change and really make a difference in the community.
Features of the dashboard:
• Place-focused - published at smaller geographies where possible
• Collaborative - Includes local data from across the system such as data shared by Citizens Advice and other system partners.
• Automated - Most data sources have automated connections, meaning there is little manual intervention required.
• Self-Service - Making the report publicly available puts data at the fingertips of colleagues, system partners and members of the public.
• Live - The dashboard is a living report which is frequently updated.
This session will:
• Provide a demonstration of Suffolk County Council’s Cost of Living dashboard
• Give an overview of data sources
• Explore opportunities for automation using Power BI
• Discuss how the data dashboard is used locally
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working on cost of living dashboards at the local level.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to promote evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful workshops which will provide practical, technical support to help users make the most of ONS data. The Cross-Government Data Science Community brings together data scientists and analysts to build data science capability across the UK governments and public sector.
We are delighted to welcome you to our inaugural Workshop in our new series, entitled: 'How to use APIs'. The session will cover what Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) are, the advantages in using them and a practical demonstration of how they can be used. The journey of two Local Authority analysts as they begin using APIs in place of manual processes will be showcased to the audience. The session will conclude by explaining the plan for the forthcoming series of Workshops that will begin in September and introducing the Slack channel that ONS Local and Cross-Government DS community will be using to support users' technical questions going forward.
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on creating data dashboards for internal or external use.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to promote evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful workshops which will provide practical, technical support to help users make the most of ONS data. The Cross-Government Data Science Community brings together data scientists and analysts to build data science capability across the UK governments and public sector.
We are delighted to welcome you to our inaugural Workshop in our new series, entitled: 'How to use APIs'. The session will cover what Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) are, the advantages in using them and a practical demonstration of how they can be used. The journey of two Local Authority analysts as they begin using APIs in place of manual processes will be showcased to the audience. The session will conclude by explaining the plan for the forthcoming series of Workshops that will begin in September and introducing the Slack channel that ONS Local and Cross-Government DS community will be using to support users' technical questions going forward.
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on creating data dashboards for internal or external use.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to promote evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful workshops which will provide practical, technical support to help users make the most of ONS data. The Cross-Government Data Science Community brings together data scientists and analysts to build data science capability across the UK governments and public sector.
We are delighted to welcome you to our inaugural Workshop in our new series, entitled: 'How to use APIs'. The session will cover what Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) are, the advantages in using them and a practical demonstration of how they can be used. The journey of two Local Authority analysts as they begin using APIs in place of manual processes will be showcased to the audience. The session will conclude by explaining the plan for the forthcoming series of Workshops that will begin in September and introducing the Slack channel that ONS Local and Cross-Government DS community will be using to support users' technical questions going forward.
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on creating data dashboards for internal or external use.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
From 1 August 2019, the Secretary of State for Education delegated responsibility for the commissioning, delivery and management of London’s Adult Education Budget (AEB) to the Mayor of London. The AEB helps Londoners to get the skills they need to progress both in life and work. The overarching aim of London’s AEB is to make adult education in London even more accessible, impactful and locally relevant.
In this presentation, the Greater London Authority will be going through the results of the pioneering 2021/22 London Learner Survey (LLS). The survey’s objective is to gain insight into the outcomes of learners to inform and improve policy. The LLS consists of two linked surveys of learners who participated in GLA-funded Adult Education Budget (AEB) learning in the academic year 2021/22.
In the LLS, Learners are surveyed prior to and 5-7 months after completing their course to estimate the economic and social changes that learners experience following an AEB course.
In particular, the presentation will show the economic impact broken down by:
. Progression into employment
. Progression within work
. Progression into further learning.
The social impact will be explored by looking at changes in:
. Health and wellbeing
. Improved self-efficacy
. Improved social integration
. Participation in volunteering
The presentation will also cover how outcomes vary by funding type, breaking down the results by Community Learning and Adult Skills.
This event is open to all; however, we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on skills, education and employment.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
Are you interested in finding, visualising, comparing and downloading a wide range of geographically granular datasets in one place? If so, this webinar is definitely for you!
We will present ONS plans for the development of Explore Subnational Statistics (ESS), a public-facing digital service that will allow users to find out more about local areas across the UK.
We will retrace the main milestones in our journey to date, starting from the launch of ESS vision in the GSS subnational data strategy, then taking a closer look at the Subnational Indicators Explorer, and, finally, outlining a roadmap towards the Beta version of the service.
This event is open to all, however we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level, with data on the policy themes of economy, transport connectivity, education, skills, health and wellbeing, or interested in data visualisation products.
If you have any questions, please contact onslocal@ons.gov.uk
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
Education and qualifications have been included as a separate analysis topic in Census for the first time in 2021. In this presentation the Census 2021 Education Analysis team will go through the results from the first two publications in their Analysis Plans, focusing on their impact and use for local authorities and other local users.
In the first publication published on 17th February 2023, 'How workforce qualification levels differ across England and Wales', the analysis looked at qualifications in the workforce population (adults aged 16 years and over who are economically active). The piece focused on trends across local authorities, exploring themes including the North-South divide, coastal towns and regional inequality.
The second publication examines the variations in the levels of qualifications that people hold by their country of birth. This includes establishing patterns across UK geographies for international migrants.
The session included live demonstrations of the interactive maps used in the publications, and how the data can be used by local authorities.
This recording is open to all, however we anticipate it will be of most interest to anyone working at a local level on skills, education and employment.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk
Analysis insight about a Flyball dog competition team's performanceroli9797
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06-04-2024 - NYC Tech Week - Discussion on Vector Databases, Unstructured Data and AI
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State of Artificial intelligence Report 2023kuntobimo2016
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a multidisciplinary field of science and engineering whose goal is to create intelligent machines.
We believe that AI will be a force multiplier on technological progress in our increasingly digital, data-driven world. This is because everything around us today, ranging from culture to consumer products, is a product of intelligence.
The State of AI Report is now in its sixth year. Consider this report as a compilation of the most interesting things we’ve seen with a goal of triggering an informed conversation about the state of AI and its implication for the future.
We consider the following key dimensions in our report:
Research: Technology breakthroughs and their capabilities.
Industry: Areas of commercial application for AI and its business impact.
Politics: Regulation of AI, its economic implications and the evolving geopolitics of AI.
Safety: Identifying and mitigating catastrophic risks that highly-capable future AI systems could pose to us.
Predictions: What we believe will happen in the next 12 months and a 2022 performance review to keep us honest.
Beyond the Basics of A/B Tests: Highly Innovative Experimentation Tactics You...Aggregage
This webinar will explore cutting-edge, less familiar but powerful experimentation methodologies which address well-known limitations of standard A/B Testing. Designed for data and product leaders, this session aims to inspire the embrace of innovative approaches and provide insights into the frontiers of experimentation!
End-to-end pipeline agility - Berlin Buzzwords 2024Lars Albertsson
We describe how we achieve high change agility in data engineering by eliminating the fear of breaking downstream data pipelines through end-to-end pipeline testing, and by using schema metaprogramming to safely eliminate boilerplate involved in changes that affect whole pipelines.
A quick poll on agility in changing pipelines from end to end indicated a huge span in capabilities. For the question "How long time does it take for all downstream pipelines to be adapted to an upstream change," the median response was 6 months, but some respondents could do it in less than a day. When quantitative data engineering differences between the best and worst are measured, the span is often 100x-1000x, sometimes even more.
A long time ago, we suffered at Spotify from fear of changing pipelines due to not knowing what the impact might be downstream. We made plans for a technical solution to test pipelines end-to-end to mitigate that fear, but the effort failed for cultural reasons. We eventually solved this challenge, but in a different context. In this presentation we will describe how we test full pipelines effectively by manipulating workflow orchestration, which enables us to make changes in pipelines without fear of breaking downstream.
Making schema changes that affect many jobs also involves a lot of toil and boilerplate. Using schema-on-read mitigates some of it, but has drawbacks since it makes it more difficult to detect errors early. We will describe how we have rejected this tradeoff by applying schema metaprogramming, eliminating boilerplate but keeping the protection of static typing, thereby further improving agility to quickly modify data pipelines without fear.
STATATHON: Unleashing the Power of Statistics in a 48-Hour Knowledge Extravag...sameer shah
"Join us for STATATHON, a dynamic 2-day event dedicated to exploring statistical knowledge and its real-world applications. From theory to practice, participants engage in intensive learning sessions, workshops, and challenges, fostering a deeper understanding of statistical methodologies and their significance in various fields."
STATATHON: Unleashing the Power of Statistics in a 48-Hour Knowledge Extravag...
ONS Economic Forum, Cambridge
1. Statistics for the public good
Ed Palmer
Deputy Chief Economist, Economic Advice and Analysis
Office for National Statistics
… and Clare (1991)
economic.advice@ons.gov.uk
Economic Forum, University of Cambridge
30 November 2018
2. To discuss today
• UK Statistics Authority and the Office for National
Statistics: our status and role
• What the ONS does
• Why we are transforming
• Some examples of how we are transforming
2
3. The status and role of the UK Statistics
Authority
• An independent statutory body
• Operating at arm’s length from government as a non-
ministerial department, reporting directly to the UK’s
Parliaments and Assemblies
• In law (the Statistics and Registration Services Act 2007)
our objective is:
“promoting and safeguarding the production and
publication of official statistics that serve the public
good”
• And that public good includes:
• informing the public about social and environmental matters
• assisting in the development and evaluation of public policy
• regulating quality and publicly challenging the misuse of
statistics 3
5. Who are we?
• Economic, public policy and population statistics
• Other government Departments also provide statistics,
e.g. energy, health, environment
• Our responsibility is for coherence of system as a whole
• Census provider in England and Wales
• Office locations in Newport, Titchfield, London
UK Statistics
Authority
Other
government
stats producers
Office for
National
Statistics
Office for
Statistics
Regulation
5
7. And a lot more:
GDP growth Inflation (Un)employment Wages
Trade Public finances
Regional and
country economic
data
Crime
Births, deaths and
marriages
Population Migration
Health and social
care
Personal income
and wealth
Well-being Environment …and more
7
8. Economic Statistics: transformation
8
• Users’ needs are changing
• Economy is evolving quickly
• Opportunities from new data
sources
• ONS needs to be more open
Bean
Independent Review of
UK Economic Statistics
2016
Johnson
• UK Consumer Prices
Stats – A Review 2015
Barker / Ridgeway
• National Statistics Quality
Review 2014
Best Practice
• European System of
Accounts 2010
9. Data are central to the
decisions which affect
our lives
Data are now available
from previously
unimaginable sources
We treat personal data
confidentially and make
sense of numbers for
the public good
Economic Statistics: transformation
9
10. Three ways of calculating GDP
Expenditure
GDP(E)
How
much is
spent
Output
GDP (O)
How
much is
produced
Income
GDP (I)
How
much is
earned
10
11. Three ways of calculating GDP
Expenditure
GDP(E)
How much is
spent
Use of credit card
data
Retail sales
Output
GDP (O)
How much is
produced
Use of VAT data
Purchases
Survey
Improving
Deflators
Income
GDP (I)
How much is
earned
Use of PAYE &
Self-Assessment
data
Improving the Supply-Use system 11
12. VAT: the benefits
Current system
Turnover is used as a
proxy for gross value
added
Surveys sent to 45,000
firms each month
Limited regional and local
estimates
Refreshing a survey
takes time to get new
data
Future system
VAT could give us GVA –
in time…
2m returns each quarter
Significant increase in
granularity of estimates
Admin data comes with
historical data for rapid
use
12
14. PAYE: the benefits
Current system
Average Weekly
Earnings x employment =
Salaries
Labour Force Survey
sent to 40,000
households
Monthly Wages &
Salaries Survey sent to
9,000 firms monthly
Future system
PAYE = Salaries + some
pensions
65m records within 2
weeks, including 18m
pension payments
14
15. Economic Statistics: analysis and research
Economic Statistics Centre of
Excellence
• National Accounts and Beyond GDP
• Productivity and the modern economy
• Regional and labour market statistics
• www.escoe.ac.uk
15
ONS Economic Statistics and Analysis
Strategy
• Sets out for users, stakeholders and
researchers clarity on how we are
working to improve UK economic
statistics.
• https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/clas
sificationsandstandards/economicstatistic
sclassifications/onseconomicstatisticsand
analysisstrategyfinancialyearending2019
16. Understanding the UK economy
Ellys Monahan
Office for National Statistics
economic.advice@ons.gov.uk
University of Cambridge
30 November 2018
17. Latest data from the ONS
• GDP
• Economic well-being
• Inflation
• Employment
• Productivity
17
18. GDP growth: 0.6% in Quarter 3 2018
18
Gross domestic product growth rate, quarter-on-quarter and quarter on same quarter a year ago
UK, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018
Source: ONS
22. Latest data from ONS
• GDP
• Economic well-being
• Inflation
• Employment
• Productivity
22
23. Measures of inflation: input producer prices,
output producer prices, consumer prices
23Source: ONS
12-month growth rates for input producer prices and output producer prices (left-hand side),
and Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) (right-hand side)
24. What is driving the growth in consumer
prices?
24Source: ONS
Contributions to the CPIH 12-month rate: October 2016 to October 2018
25. House prices, inflation and wages
25Source: ONS, Land Registry
Index, January 2007 = 100
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2007
JAN
2007
JUL
2008
JAN
2008
JUL
2009
JAN
2009
JUL
2010
JAN
2010
JUL
2011
JAN
2011
JUL
2012
JAN
2012
JUL
2013
JAN
2013
JUL
2014
JAN
2014
JUL
2015
JAN
2015
JUL
2016
JAN
2016
JUL
2017
JAN
2017
JUL
2018
JAN
2018
JUL
East of England Great Britain Cambridge CPIH AWE
26. Latest data from ONS
• GDP
• Economic well-being
• Inflation
• Employment
• Productivity
26
27. Labour market headline figures
27Source: ONS
UK, seasonally adjusted, Jan to Mar 2006 to July to Sep 2018
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
Jan-Mar
2006
Jan-Mar
2007
Jan-Mar
2008
Jan-Mar
2009
Jan-Mar
2010
Jan-Mar
2011
Jan-Mar
2012
Jan-Mar
2013
Jan-Mar
2014
Jan-Mar
2015
Jan-Mar
2016
Jan-Mar
2017
Jan-Mar
2018
Employment rate % (Age 16-64) LHS Unemployment rate % (Age 16-64) RHS
28. Latest data from ONS
• GDP
• Economic well-being
• Inflation
• Employment
• Productivity
28
29. Productivity performance is a key weakness
29Source: ONS
Output per hour and output per worker. Seasonally adjusted
Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 1994 to Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2018, UK
30. Latest data from ONS
• GDP
• Economic well-being
• Inflation
• Employment
• Productivity
30
31. Recent developments in ONS
economic statistics - a regional
perspective
Richard Prothero
Head of ONS Centre for Subnational Analysis,
32. Devolution Programme
A programme to improve ONS regional and local statistics.
Regional Balanced GVA
Regional & Sub-Regional Household Final Consumption Expenditure
Regional Short Term Indicators
Country and Regional Public Sector Finances
Exports of Services Data
Productivity
Small Area Data
Flexible Geographies
Investigating Uses of Administrative Data
Regional Prices
Stakeholder Engagement
33. Economic growth by region/country
UK UK
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
NorthEast
NorthWest
YorkshireandTheHumber
EastMidlands
WestMidlands
EastofEngland
London
SouthEast
SouthWest
Wales
Scotland
NorthernIreland
NorthEast
NorthWest
YorkshireandTheHumber
EastMidlands
WestMidlands
EastofEngland
London
SouthEast
SouthWest
Wales
Scotland
NorthernIreland
1998-2007 2010-2016
%
Annual growth rates of real GVA by NUTS1 regions, UK, 1998-2007 and 2010-2016
35. Labour Productivity since 2007
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Real GVA Growth
Growth in Hours Worked
Growth in GVA versus hours worked, NUTS 2, 2007-2016.
Decrease in
Labour
Productivity
Increase in
Labour
Productivity
Chart from ONS Regional and sub-regional productivity in the UK: February 2018
East Anglia
41. Net Fiscal Balance by country and region, 2016/2017
(£million)
• In the financial year ending (FYE)
2017, all countries and regions except
London, the South East and the East
of England had a public sector net
fiscal deficit.
• This was the same when North Sea oil
and gas revenue was allocated to
regions on both geographic and
population shares (the chart shows
the geographic share).
-40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000
London
South East
East of England
South West
East Midlands
North East
Yorkshire and the Humber
West Midlands
North West
42. Net Fiscal balance from 1999 to Financial Year ending 2016
(£ million)
-60,000
-30,000
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
180,000
UK Greater South East (London + SE +EE)
Rest of England (NE + NW + YATH + EM + WM + SW) N.Ireland/ Scotland/ Wales
43. Exports of Services
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Construction
Retail (excluding motor trades)
Primary and utilities
Other services
Administrative and support services
Wholesale and motor trades
Manufacturing
Insurance and pension services
Transport
Information and communication
Travel
Real estate, professional, scientific and technical
Financial
Value of Services Exports £(m)
East of England London REST of UK £m
So:
the Office for National Statistics (ONS) which is the executive office of the UK Statistics Authority and the largest producer of official statistics in the UK
the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) which is the regulatory arm of the UK Statistics Authority. It assesses official statistics for compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, reports on system-wide issues and on how statistics are used, celebrating when the standards are upheld and challenging publicly when they are not.
And other departments who produce their own statistics.
Full range of our stats.
Most popular? Baby names.
Now turn to transformation.
Thinking back to that circular flow of GDP, can measure in three ways. In theory they are the same. In practice not quite.
New data sources and technology allow us to measure better the economy in each of the three ways.
Expenditure: sales data
Output: VAT (more later)
Income: PAYE (more later)
Emphasise speed, coverage granularity. Important for e.g. Brexit work, industrial strategy.
Emphasise speed, coverage granularity. Important for e.g. Brexit work, industrial strategy.
Also mention ESAS
Charts shown in the presentation cover the latest available data. Many of the charts are taken from economic commentary and statistical bulletins for each topic which are available on the ONS website.
Search “economic commentary” or topic title.
Time series chart of GDP growth
Blue bars represent quarter on quarter (LHS, %)
Yellow line represents quarter on same quarter a year ago (RHS, %)
UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.6% between Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018 and Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018.
All four sectors of output contributed positively to growth in Quarter 3 2018, with the largest contribution from the services industries at 0.3 percentage points.
Household spending grew by 0.5% while business investment fell by 1.2% between Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 2018.
Net trade contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth in Quarter 3 2018, driven by a 2.7% rise in exports, while imports were flat.
In this chart –UK is the yellow line.
The path of growth since the recession shows that Italy, Japan and Germany experienced larger peak-to-trough falls in GDP than the UK, Canada, France and the US. Of the countries recovered to their pre-crisis levels of GDP, the UK took the joint-longest along with Japan. Italy has yet to recover to its pre-crisis level. Over 40 quarters (10 years) after the start of the recession, the chart shows the US and Canada have grown the most since the recession, followed by Germany and the UK.
The economic well-being dashboard is published within the Economic Well-being release.
Figures above illustrate economic well-being indicators, UK, Quarter 2 (Apr - Jun 2018). Next release 8 January.
Useful info-graphic style dashboard which shows the trends in each variable, and most also have a green or red arrow showing whether they are moving in a positive or negative direction
The variables on the dashboard generally take a household or per capita perspective, for example, on the top row we have GDP per head, net national disposable income per head. There are also wealth characteristics in the dashboard.
I’d like to draw your attention to the middle chart on the 2nd row - which is a behavioural question. This uses data from the Eurobarometer Consumer Survey, conducted by GFK on behalf of the European Commission and asks about people’s perceptions of their financial situation.
So, again I recommend you have a look at the economic wellbeing release each quarter if you are interested in monitoring these wider measures of economic performance.
Chart shows different measures of prices over time. The yellow line is input PPI, which grew by 10.0% in the 12 months to October 2018, slowing from 10.5% in the 12 months to September 2018. The dark blue line shows output PPI which can be thought of as factory gate prices. Output PPI grew by 3.3% in the 12 months to October 2018, up from 3.1% in the 12 months to September 2018. The largest upward contributions to the increase in the annual rate came from petroleum, and clothing, textiles and leather.
The blue bars show CPIH which is consumer prices with owner occupiers’ housing costs included. CPIH was 2.2% in October 2018, unchanged from September 2018.
The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.2% in October 2018, unchanged from September 2018.
The large downward contributions to the change in the 12-month rate from food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear, and some transport elements were offset by upward contributions from rising petrol, diesel and domestic gas prices.
Other smaller upward contributions came from items in the miscellaneous goods and services, recreation and culture, and communication sectors.
This chart looks at the relative house price growth since the economic downturn across various regions, compared with AWE regular pay growth and CPIH.
As you can see the regions all experienced a dip in average house prices between January 2008 and May 2009, after which Cambridge (shown by the dark blue line) in particular began to recover fairly strongly. So by the end of 2009 to early 2010, average house prices in Cambridge had already returned to pre-recession levels, and by mid 2013 prices in these areas had also outpaced CPIH and AWE increases since the recession.
In contrast, average house prices in Great Britain (shown by the yellow line) returned to their pre-recession level in mid 2013.
Estimates from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) show the unemployment rate continues its general decline and the employment rate continues to rise generally.
In the three months to September 2018, the employment rate (for those aged 16 to 64) was 75.5%, slightly higher than 75.0% a year earlier – with 31.2m currently employed in the UK. (LHS)
In contrast 1.4 million people were unemployed with a rate of 4.2%.
Compared with the same quarter a year ago, labour productivity, on an output per hour basis, grew by 1.4% and has been growing for the past seven consecutive quarters.
A 1.4% growth, compared with the same quarter in the previous year, is significantly lower than the long period of average productivity growth prior to the economic downturn, and represents a continuation of the UK's “productivity puzzle”.
Productivity in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018, as measured by output per hour, was 17.6% below its pre-downturn trend – or, equivalently, productivity would have been 21.4% higher had it followed this pre-downturn trend
Increase in demand for regional and local statistics to understand the economy and society at a sub-national level
Release date: 26 April 2018
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/compendium/economicreview/april2018
Differences in types of industry that have created growth pre-and post recession.
Only half of 40 NUTS 2 regions had increase in real productivity 2007-2016
NI 1% increase in GVA, 2% decline in hours worked.
NOTE APS/LFS show slightly higher hours worked growth than prod hours.
Release date : February 7th 2018
Next release date: TBA
City region, LEP, NUTS2, NUTS3
Real data – NUTS2 only
Release date: 26 April 2018
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/compendium/economicreview/april2018
This Figure shows firm-level productivity data for the non-financial business economy for regions and countries.
It shows the proportion of firms at different levels of gross value added (GVA) per worker.
The distributions are skewed to the right, indicating that in all the regions there are fewer firms with high productivity levels than firms with lower productivity levels.
London clear firm level productivity advantage in both service sector categories.
Release date: 26 April 2018
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/compendium/economicreview/april2018
Release date: 26 April 2018
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/compendium/economicreview/april2018
Release date: 1 August 2018
Next release: TBA
Country and regional public sector finances: Financial year ending March 2016
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/2015to2016
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/2016to2017
Release date : 24 October 2018Next release : TBA
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/datasets/regionalisedestimatesofukserviceexports
Local Authority GVA for all LA’s in the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority:
LA’s Cambridge, East Cambridgeshire, Fenland, Huntingdonshire and South Cambridgeshire make up NUTS3 region Cambridgeshire CC (East of England)
Peterborough is in the NUTS 3 Peterborough (North East )
Regional Gross Value Added (Balanced) by Local Authority in the UK – Trevor Fenton
Release date : 20th December 2017
Next release : December 2018
Jan-Dec 2015
The spatial distribution of industries in Great Britain: 2015
Regional and local industrial specialisms and the spatial distribution of industries in Great Britain
Release date: 28 March 2017
Location quotient data and industrial specialisation for local authorities
Location quotients can be interpreted as a local measure of geographical concentration of industries. They are calculated as the quotient between the local share of employee jobs in a specific industry and the local share of national employee jobs. LQ = (Ei,r / Ei ) / (Er / E)