Презентація з Kyiv PMDay 2019 Main - www.pmday.org Project Management Day Fb - https://www.facebook.com/pg/pmdayconference Youtube channel - https://www.youtube.com/user/StartupLviv Telegram channel - https://t.me/uapmday

1. WHY TEAMS ALWAYS
F*CK UP WITH THEIR
OWN ESTIMATES
OLHA CHMYR,
PROJECT MANAGER, SPD-UKRAINE (PitchBook)

2. ● 4+ years of Project Management
● worked for startups, small/medium
companies, and FMCG corporations
● beautiful creatures and coffee lover
● Project Manager at SPD-Ukraine
(PitchBook)
ABOUT ME:

3. WHO I AM

4. AGENDA
● Theory of estimating
● Emotional traps in the
estimation process

5. GIVE ME
YOUR
ESTIMATE!

6. GIVE ME YOUR ESTIMATE!
#NOESTIMATES

7. PROJECT TRIANGLE

8. TIME ESTIMATES PROCESS
DEFINE THE TARGET
DIVE INTO DETAILS
● split into obvious subtasks;
● do not get brought away with
detailed detailing.
1
2

9. DEFINE RISKY SUBTASKS
ESTIMATE TIME
FOR DETAILED TASK
● include non-productive hours;
● include time for code review, integration and other dev activities.
3
4
TIME ESTIMATES PROCESS

10. LET’S TALK MORE ABOUT
NUMBERS AND UNKNOWNS
● Ask for at least 2 estimates –
min and max
(it is better to have even three –
min, max and most likely);
● More unknowns, less confidence

11. UNKNOWNS AND UNKNOWN
UNKNOWNS
● Do we understand the spec well?
● How many negative cases are
covered in the spec?
● How will we test the system?
● How will the system behave at the
moment of failure?

12. ● Can the architecture be scaled?
● What are the risks associated with this solution
and to the choices about to be made?
● How will we monitor the system?
● Is it possible to complete a task more
straightforwardly while still accomplishing
a business task?
UNKNOWNS AND UNKNOWN
UNKNOWNS

13. RESPECT THE CON OF UNCERTAINTY
EstimationvsVariability

14. YOU CAN BREAK THE ANALYSIS PARALYSIS
● Can it last for a
half a year? ● Can it last for a
week?
● Can it last for a
month? ● Can it last for a
day?

15. ESTIMATE THE QUALITY OF TIME ESTIMATES
K = T(p)/T(o)

16. HOW TO AVOID MISTAKES
● do not get brought away with detailed detailing;
● include risky tasks and increase their estimate;
● provide more specificity in the task;
● split into the subtasks until everyone feels
well comfortable about them;

17. HOW TO AVOID MISTAKES
● calculate individual coefficient of error
estimation;
● include the blocking dependencies between
the tasks of different devs.
● investigate tasks which are hard to estimate;
● include non-productive time expenditures;

18. PLANNING FALLACY
Planning fallacy – cognitive
distortion of planning

19. Roger BuehlerAmos Tversky and Daniel
Kahneman
PLANNING FALLACY

20. 70%
did not meet the deadline
80%
were sure about the deadline
THE MAIN REASONS FOR MISTAKES

21. When we thought over something for ourselves, it
seems to us that this will happen more likely.
THE MAIN REASONS FOR MISTAKES

22. Detailed plan leads to the more optimistic estimate
THE MAIN REASONS FOR MISTAKES

23. THE MAIN REASONS FOR MISTAKES
Hot/Cold empathy gap

24. THE REASON OF PLANNING FALLACY
Focalism

25. HOW TO LIVE ON

26. Willis Everett McNelly
HOW TO LIVE ON

27. Short and unrealistic terms Additional time
HOW TO LIVE ON

28. HOW TO LIVE ON
External estimate

29. If everything is as usual, how much time
do you need to finish the task
How did the events go, which of
them usually lead to the timing shift?
HOW TO LIVE ON

30. PLEASE, DON’T BURN OUT

31. TEAM WORK

32. 3 – 2 – 1

33. QUESTIONS
o.chmyr@spd-ukraine.comfacebook.com/chmyr.olha
instagram.com/the.osyalinkedin.com/in/olhachmyr