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Low and middle-income countries drive
food demand growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011-20 2021-30 2011-20 2021-30...
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030
World High Incom...
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2008-10
2018-20
2030
2008-10
2018-20
2030
2008-10
2018-20
2030
2008-10
...
Biofuel share of main feedstock is declining
Biofuel as a share of total use
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2011-20
2021-30
2011-20
2021-30
2011-20
2021-30
2011-20
2021-30
2011-2...
A few countries/regions dominate livestock
production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2018-20
2030
2018-20
2030
2018-20
2030
2018...
Limited change in agricultural land use
2018-20 to 2030
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
...
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Asia Pacific Sub-Saharan
Africa
Near East and
North Africa
Europe and
Central Asia
North America La...
-110
-60
-10
40
90
Europe and
Central Asia
North America Latin America
and the
Caribbean
Asia Pacific Near East and
North ...
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
World Asia Pacific Sub-Saharan
Africa
Near East and
North Africa
Europe and
Central Asia
North Amer...
Continuing downward trend in real prices
Projected evolution of FAO Food Price Index
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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030

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These slides present key facts and figures from the 2021-2030 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook.

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030

  1. 1. Low and middle-income countries drive food demand growth 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2011-20 2021-30 2011-20 2021-30 2011-20 2021-30 2011-20 2021-30 2011-20 2021-30 2011-20 2021-30 Cereals Meat Fish Dairy Sugar Vegetable oil Rest of World NENA China India Sub-Saharan Africa OECD Mt
  2. 2. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 World High Income Upper Middle Income Lower Middle Income Low Income kcal/day/person Staples Animal products Fats Sweeteners Other Limited convergence in diet composition Per capita availability of the main food groups (in calories)
  3. 3. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2008-10 2018-20 2030 2008-10 2018-20 2030 2008-10 2018-20 2030 2008-10 2018-20 2030 2008-10 2018-20 2030 China India South East Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa % g/person/day Meat Fish Egg Dairy Share of total protein availability (right axis) Income growth spurs animal protein consumption in middle-income countries Per capita availability of animal protein
  4. 4. Biofuel share of main feedstock is declining Biofuel as a share of total use
  5. 5. -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2011-20 2021-30 2011-20 2021-30 2011-20 2021-30 2011-20 2021-30 2011-20 2021-30 2011-20 2021-30 Asia Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Near East and North Africa Europe and Central Asia North America Latin America Mha % Growth in land use Growth in multi-cropped land Growth in yields Area harvested in 2030 (right axis) Growth in crop production driven by growth in yields
  6. 6. A few countries/regions dominate livestock production 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 2018-20 2030 China India Asia Pacific (excl. China and India) Sub-Saharan Africa Near East and North Africa Europe and Central Asia North America Latin America and the Caribbean Mt/year Poultry Pork Beef Sheep Milk Eggs Fish
  7. 7. Limited change in agricultural land use 2018-20 to 2030 -1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Asia Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Near East and North Africa Europe and Central Asia North America Latin America and Caribbean % Mha Cropland Pastureland Total growth (right axis)
  8. 8. -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Asia Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Near East and North Africa Europe and Central Asia North America Latin America and Caribbean % p.a. Growth in agricultural production Growth in GHG emissions Declining carbon intensity of agricultural production Annual change in agricultural output and direct GHG emissions, 2021-30
  9. 9. -110 -60 -10 40 90 Europe and Central Asia North America Latin America and the Caribbean Asia Pacific Near East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Bln USD 2008-10 2018-20 2030 Increasing differentiation between net exporting and net importing regions Net trade, in constant 2014-16 USD
  10. 10. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 World Asia Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Near East and North Africa Europe and Central Asia North America Latin America and Caribbean % 2008-10 2018-20 2030 Trade is essential for global food security Imports as a share of total calorie availability
  11. 11. Continuing downward trend in real prices
  12. 12. Projected evolution of FAO Food Price Index

These slides present key facts and figures from the 2021-2030 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook.

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