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CIVIL BEAT POLL 
QUESTIONNAIRE 
October 16 - 19, 2014 
1) Aloha, we’re conducting a short survey about the upcoming election in Hawaii--including the race for Governor that includes David Ige, Mufi 
Hannemann, and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated]. Early voting has already started, and voting will end on November 4th. First, have you 
already voted early, by mail or at a walk-in voting center, have you note voted yet but are planning to vote early, are you planning to vote on Election 
Day, are you not sure when you will vote, or are you not likely to vote? 
2) Who are you supporting in the race for Governor between Democrat David Ige, Independent candidate Mufi Hannemann, Liberatarian Jeff Davis, 
and Republican Duke Ainoa [candidate name order rotated]? 
3) About how recently did you decide to support him? Within the past two weeks? Within the past month? Or have you supported him for more than 
a month? 
4) If didn't select Ige or Aiona in Q2: If the election for Governor were only between David Ige and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated], 
with no other candidates, what would you do? 
5) No matter which candidate you support for Governor, who do you thik is most likely to win? Your best guess is fine. 
6) There is also an election for U.S. Senate between Brian Schatz and Cam Cavasso [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you 
supporting?
7CD1a) First Congressional District Only: There is also an election for U.S. Congress in the First Congressional District between Mark Takai and 
Charles Djou [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting? 
7CD1b) First Congressional District Only: About how recently did you decide to support him? Within the past two weeks? Within the past month? 
Or have you supported him for more than a month? 
7CD2) Second Congressional District Only: There isl also an election for U.S. Congress in the Second Congressional District between Tulsi 
Gabbard and Kawika Crowley [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting? 
8) There will also be a number of proposed amendments to Hawaii’s Constitution on the November ballot… One of them would amend Hawaii’s 
constitution to allow the state to use public funds to help pay for privately run early education programs for children in the years before they start 
Kindergarten. Would you most likely vote for this amendment, vote against this amendment, or not vote either way on this amendment? 
9) Please think back to the Primary elections that took place in August. Did you vote in the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or neither 
one? 
10) If Voted in Democratic Primary Only: In the Democratic primary for Governor, did you vote for David Ige, or Neil Abercrombie [candidate name 
order rotated]?
Demographic Questions 
1) Gender 
2) Age 
3) Ethnicity 
4) Political ideology 
5) Party I.D. 
6) Have you, or a member of your immediate family such as a spouse, sibling, parent, or child, served in the U.S. Military? 
7) Are you, or a member of your immediate family a member of a labor union? 
8) Annual household income 
9) County/Congressional District [on file]
STATEWIDE 
RESULTS 
1,221 
Likely 
General 
Election 
Voters 
Margin 
of 
Error: 
+/-­‐ 
2.8% 
October 
16 
-­‐19, 
2014 
70% 
Landlines, 
30% 
Cell 
Phones 
Who 
are 
you 
supporting 
in 
the 
race 
for 
Governor 
between 
Democrat 
David 
Ige, 
Independent 
candidate 
Mufi 
Hannemann, 
Liberatarian 
Jeff 
Davis, 
and 
Republican 
Duke 
Ainoa 
[candidate 
name 
order 
rotated]? 
Governor 
Ige 40% 
Aiona 34% 
Hannemann 11% 
Davis 6% 
Undecided 8% 
No 
matter 
which 
candidate 
you 
support 
for 
Governor, 
who 
do 
you 
think 
is 
most 
likely 
to 
win? 
Gov_Predict 
Ige 48% 
Aiona 27% 
Hannemann 8% 
Davis 6% 
No 
Prediction 12% 
If 
didn't 
select 
Ige 
or 
Aiona: 
If 
the 
election 
for 
Governor 
were 
only 
between 
David 
Ige 
and 
Duke 
Aiona 
[candidate 
name 
order 
rotated], 
with 
no 
other 
candidates, 
what 
would 
you 
do? 
Subsample 
= 
311 
Gov_Two 
Candidates 
Ige 27% 
Aiona 26% 
Niether 22% 
Unsure 25%
There 
is 
also 
an 
election 
for 
U.S. 
Senate 
between 
Brian 
Schatz 
and 
Cam 
Cavasso 
[candidate 
name 
order 
rotated]. 
Which 
candidate 
are 
you 
supporting? 
Senate Overall 
Schatz 55% 
Cavasso 29% 
Unsure 16% 
There 
will 
also 
be 
a 
number 
of 
proposed 
amendments 
to 
Hawaii’s 
Constitution 
on 
the 
November 
ballot… 
One 
of 
them 
would 
amend 
Hawaii’s 
constitution 
to 
allow 
the 
state 
to 
use 
public 
funds 
to 
help 
pay 
for 
privately 
run 
early 
education 
programs 
for 
children 
in 
the 
years 
before 
they 
start 
Kindergarten. 
Would 
you 
most 
likely 
vote 
for 
this 
amendment, 
vote 
against 
this 
amendment, 
or 
not 
vote 
either 
way 
on 
this 
amendment? 
School_Funding 
For 34% 
Against 50% 
Abstain 7% 
Unsure 9%
First 
Congressional 
District 
Only: 
There 
is 
also 
an 
election 
for 
U.S. 
Congress 
in 
the 
First 
Congressional 
District 
between 
Mark 
Takai 
and 
Charles 
Djou 
[candidate 
name 
order 
rotated]. 
Which 
candidate 
are 
you 
supporting? 
604 
Likely 
General 
Election 
Voters 
in 
the 
First 
Cogressional 
District 
Margin 
of 
Error: 
+/-­‐ 
4.0% 
October 
16 
-­‐19, 
2014 
CD1 
Takai 45% 
Djou 45% 
Unsure 9% 
Second 
Congressional 
District 
Only: 
There 
isl 
also 
an 
election 
for 
U.S. 
Congress 
in 
the 
Second 
Congressional 
District 
between 
Tulsi 
Gabbard 
and 
Kawika 
Crowley 
[candidate 
name 
order 
rotated]. 
Which 
candidate 
are 
you 
supporting? 
517 
Likely 
General 
Election 
Voters 
in 
the 
Second 
Cogressional 
District 
Margin 
of 
Error: 
+/-­‐ 
4.3% 
October 
16 
-­‐19, 
2014 
CD2 
Gabbard 69% 
Crowley 19% 
Unsure 12%
STATEWIDE 
DEMOGRAPHICS 
Gender 
Male 47% 
Female 52% 
Refused 1% 
Age 
Under 
50 26% 
50 
or 
older 74% 
Ethnicity 
Caucasian 37% 
Japanese 29% 
Filipino 8% 
Hawaiian 10% 
Chinese 6% 
Hispanic 1% 
Other/Mixed 9% 
Refused 0% 
County_CD 
Oahu_1 52% 
Oahu_2 17% 
Hawaii 15% 
Maui 11% 
Kauai 5% 
Political 
Orientation 
Liberal 27% 
Moderate 31% 
Conservative 28% 
Unsure 14%
Party 
ID 
Democrat 49% 
Republican 25% 
Independent 21% 
Unsure 5% 
Military 
Family 
Yes 58% 
No 39% 
Refused 3% 
Union 
Family 
Yes 35% 
No 61% 
Refused 4% 
Household 
Income 
Less 
than 
$50,000 28% 
$50,000 
-­‐ 
$100,000 33% 
More 
than 
$100,000 19% 
Refused 19%
CD1 
DEMOGRAPHICS 
Gender 
Male 48% 
Female 52% 
Age 
Under 
50 31% 
50 
or 
older 69% 
Ethnicity 
Caucasian 27% 
Japanese 36% 
Filipino 11% 
Hawaiian 7% 
Chinese 8% 
Hispanic 2% 
Other/Mixed 10% 
Politics 
Liberal 26% 
Moderate 31% 
Conservative 28% 
Unsure 14% 
Party_ID 
Democrat 45% 
Republican 27% 
Independent 23% 
Unsure 5% 
Military 
Family 
Yes 58% 
No 39% 
Refused 3%
Union 
Family 
Yes 35% 
No 61% 
Refused 4% 
Household 
Income 
Less 
than 
$50,000 27% 
$50,000 
-­‐ 
$100,000 30% 
$100,000+ 23% 
Refused 20%
CD2 
DEMOGRAPHICS 
Gender 
Male 47% 
Female 53% 
Age 
Under 
50 21% 
50 
or 
older 79% 
Ethnicity 
Caucasian 47% 
Japanese 21% 
Filipino 5% 
Hawaiian 13% 
Chinese 4% 
Hispanic 1% 
Other/Mixed 9% 
County_CD 
Oahu_2 35% 
Hawaii 31% 
Maui 23% 
Kauai 11% 
Politics 
Liberal 29% 
Moderate 31% 
Conservative 27% 
Unsure 13% 
Party_ID 
Democrat 54% 
Republican 24% 
Independent 18% 
Unsure 4%
Military 
Family 
Yes 59% 
No 39% 
Refused 2% 
Union 
Family 
Yes 35% 
No 61% 
Refused 4% 
Household 
Income 
Less 
than 
$50,000 30% 
$50,000 
-­‐ 
$100,000 37% 
$100,000+ 15% 
Refused 18%
GOVERNOR 
CROSSTABS 
Governor Male Female 
Ige 41% 40% 
Aiona 33% 35% 
Hannemann 12% 11% 
Davis 6% 6% 
Undecided 7% 8% 
Governor Under 
50 50 
or 
older 
Ige 37% 44% 
Aiona 40% 34% 
Hannemann 10% 11% 
Davis 5% 4% 
Undecided 7% 7% 
Governor Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed 
Ige 47% 49% 33% 28% 34% 36% 28% 
Aiona 35% 24% 42% 48% 42% 43% 35% 
Hannemann 9% 14% 11% 14% 7% 14% 12% 
Davis 5% 8% 3% 3% 1% 3% 6% 
Undecided 5% 5% 11% 8% 16% 5% 19% 
Governor Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 
Ige 38% 39% 49% 40% 46% 
Aiona 37% 35% 31% 29% 24% 
Hannemann 11% 12% 10% 15% 9% 
Davis 5% 6% 8% 4% 13% 
Undecided 9% 8% 3% 12% 8% 
Governor Liberal Moderate Conservative Unsure 
Ige 69% 48% 16% 26% 
Aiona 8% 30% 65% 30% 
Hannemann 12% 11% 11% 13% 
Davis 6% 4% 5% 6% 
Undecided 4% 7% 3% 24%
Governor Democrat Republican Independent Unsure 
Ige 66% 15% 24% 19% 
Aiona 13% 68% 47% 16% 
Hannemann 13% 9% 14% 2% 
Davis 3% 3% 10% 16% 
Undecided 6% 5% 6% 48% 
Governor Military 
Family Not 
a 
Military 
Family 
Ige 43% 42% 
Aiona 35% 32% 
Hannemann 11% 12% 
Davis 4% 6% 
Undecided 7% 7% 
Governor Union 
Family Not 
a 
Union 
Family 
Ige 48% 41% 
Aiona 27% 37% 
Hannemann 13% 11% 
Davis 7% 4% 
Undecided 4% 8% 
Governor Less 
than 
$50,000 $50,000 
-­‐ 
$100,000 $100,000+ 
Ige 45% 46% 46% 
Aiona 31% 35% 29% 
Hannemann 12% 11% 13% 
Davis 8% 3% 4% 
Undecided 4% 4% 7%
If 
didn't 
select 
Ige 
or 
Aiona: 
If 
the 
election 
for 
Governor 
were 
only 
between 
David 
Ige 
and 
Duke 
Aiona 
[candidate 
name 
order 
rotated], 
with 
no 
other 
candidates, 
what 
would 
you 
do? 
Subsample 
= 
311 
Governor_TwoCandidates Hannemann Davis Undecided 
Ige 39% 26% 11% 
Aiona 32% 36% 9% 
Neither 23% 29% 15% 
Unsure 6% 8% 65% 
If 
Voted 
in 
Democratic 
Primary 
Only: 
In 
the 
Democratic 
primary 
for 
Governor, 
did 
you 
vote 
for 
David 
Ige, 
or 
Neil 
Abercrombie 
[candidate 
name 
order 
rotated]? 
Subsample 
= 
814 
Governor Ige Abercrombie Unsure 
Ige 53% 62% 16% 
Aiona 26% 13% 39% 
Hannemann 10% 15% 8% 
Davis 6% 3% 10% 
Undecided 5% 6% 26% 
Gov_Decide Ige Aiona Hannemann Davis 
Two 
weeks 22% 17% 36% 30% 
One 
month 21% 15% 30% 23% 
Month 
plus 56% 66% 31% 32% 
Unsure 1% 2% 3% 15% 
Gov_Predict Ige Aiona Hannemann Davis Undecided 
Ige 83% 16% 32% 58% 26% 
Aiona 4% 64% 15% 8% 9% 
Hannemann 3% 2% 41% 12% 7% 
Davis 4% 7% 3% 15% 3% 
No 
Prediction 6% 11% 9% 7% 56%
SENATE 
CROSSTABS 
Senate Male Female 
Schatz 53% 58% 
Cavasso 33% 25% 
Unsure 14% 17% 
Senate Under 
50 50 
or 
older 
Schatz 48% 58% 
Cavasso 33% 28% 
Unsure 20% 14% 
Senate Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed 
Schatz 60% 59% 51% 49% 43% 55% 48% 
Cavasso 29% 26% 28% 41% 30% 38% 28% 
Unsure 11% 15% 21% 10% 27% 7% 24% 
Senate Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 
Schatz 52% 51% 66% 57% 58% 
Cavasso 29% 32% 25% 30% 23% 
Unsure 19% 17% 9% 12% 20% 
Senate Liberal Moderate Conservative Unsure 
Schatz 83% 61% 25% 50% 
Cavasso 8% 24% 63% 19% 
Unsure 9% 15% 12% 32% 
Senate Democrat Republican Independent Unsure 
Schatz 79% 26% 39% 46% 
Cavasso 10% 58% 46% 7% 
Unsure 11% 16% 15% 47%
Senate Military 
Family Not 
a 
Military 
Family 
Schatz 55% 58% 
Cavasso 32% 26% 
Unsure 14% 16% 
Senate Union 
Family Not 
a 
Union 
Family 
Schatz 63% 53% 
Cavasso 26% 31% 
Unsure 11% 16% 
Senate Less 
than 
$50,000 $50,000 
-­‐ 
$100,000 $100,000+ 
Schatz 58% 57% 63% 
Cavasso 28% 32% 30% 
Unsure 14% 12% 7%
SCHOOL 
FUNDING 
CROSSTABS 
School_Funding Male Female 
For 32% 36% 
Against 56% 46% 
Abstain 7% 7% 
Unsure 5% 11% 
School_Funding Under 
50 50 
or 
older 
For 29% 37% 
Against 50% 51% 
Abstain 9% 4% 
Unsure 11% 7% 
School_Funding Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed 
For 39% 29% 41% 45% 24% 26% 28% 
Against 50% 56% 36% 48% 45% 58% 50% 
Abstain 3% 9% 13% 1% 6% 11% 11% 
Unsure 7% 6% 10% 6% 26% 5% 12% 
School_Funding Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 
For 30% 31% 42% 38% 47% 
Against 51% 53% 51% 45% 39% 
Abstain 8% 6% 3% 11% 2% 
Unsure 10% 10% 4% 6% 12% 
School_Funding Liberal Moderate Conservative Unsure 
For 44% 27% 34% 35% 
Against 45% 56% 55% 39% 
Abstain 6% 8% 6% 5% 
Unsure 5% 9% 5% 21%
School_Funding Democrat Republican Independent Unsure 
For 38% 31% 32% 31% 
Against 50% 53% 54% 26% 
Abstain 6% 8% 6% 5% 
Unsure 6% 8% 8% 38% 
School_Funding Military 
Family Not 
a 
Military 
Family 
For 33% 37% 
Against 52% 49% 
Abstain 5% 8% 
Unsure 9% 7% 
School_Funding Union 
Family Not 
a 
Union 
Family 
For 36% 35% 
Against 50% 51% 
Abstain 6% 6% 
Unsure 7% 8% 
School_Funding Less 
than 
$50,000 $50,000 
-­‐ 
$100,000 $100,000+ 
For 35% 35% 38% 
Against 50% 52% 53% 
Abstain 7% 9% 1% 
Unsure 8% 4% 8%
CD1 
CROSSTABS 
CD1 Male Female Refused 
Takai 45% 47% 0% 
Djou 49% 42% 0% 
Unsure 6% 11% 100% 
CD1 Under 
50 50 
or 
older 
Takai 41% 47% 
Djou 50% 44% 
Unsure 10% 8% 
CD1 Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed 
Takai 50% 58% 26% 33% 34% 34% 40% 
Djou 44% 34% 63% 63% 50% 53% 44% 
Unsure 6% 9% 11% 4% 16% 13% 16% 
CD1 Liberal Moderate Conservative Unsure 
Takai 75% 55% 18% 32% 
Djou 19% 37% 80% 36% 
Unsure 6% 8% 3% 31% 
CD1 Democrat Republican Independent Unsure 
Takai 76% 18% 25% 35% 
Djou 18% 75% 65% 12% 
Unsure 6% 7% 9% 53%
CD1 Military 
Family Not 
a 
Military 
Family 
Takai 48% 46% 
Djou 44% 44% 
Unsure 8% 10% 
CD1 Union 
Family Not 
a 
Union 
Family 
Takai 49% 46% 
Djou 42% 45% 
Unsure 8% 9% 
CD1 Less 
than 
$50,000 $50,000 
-­‐ 
$100,000 $100,000+ 
Takai 47% 51% 52% 
Djou 41% 44% 47% 
Unsure 12% 4% 2% 
CD1_Decide Takai Djou 
Two 
weeks 20% 17% 
One 
month 22% 22% 
Month 
plus 57% 60% 
Unsure 1% 1%
CD2 
CROSSTABS 
CD2 Male Female 
Gabbard 68% 70% 
Crowley 23% 16% 
Unsure 9% 15% 
CD2 Under 
50 50 
or 
older 
Gabbard 70% 71% 
Crowley 23% 17% 
Unsure 8% 12% 
CD2 Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed 
Gabbard 70% 65% 79% 79% 51% 54% 70% 
Crowley 20% 23% 8% 17% 18% 28% 12% 
Unsure 10% 13% 13% 4% 31% 17% 18% 
CD2 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai 
Gabbard 63% 74% 72% 63% 
Crowley 19% 17% 19% 25% 
Unsure 18% 9% 9% 12% 
CD2 Liberal Moderate Conservative Unsure 
Gabbard 79% 76% 50% 76% 
Crowley 10% 15% 37% 7% 
Unsure 11% 9% 13% 17% 
CD2 Democrat Republican Independent Unsure 
Gabbard 85% 41% 60% 56% 
Crowley 7% 44% 23% 0% 
Unsure 7% 15% 17% 44%
CD2 Military 
Family Not 
a 
Military 
Family 
Gabbard 70% 71% 
Crowley 19% 18% 
Unsure 11% 11% 
CD2 Union 
Family Not 
a 
Union 
Family 
Gabbard 77% 68% 
Crowley 16% 20% 
Unsure 7% 12% 
CD2 Less 
than 
$50,000 $50,000 
-­‐ 
$100,000 $100,000+ 
Gabbard 76% 70% 78% 
Crowley 13% 22% 16% 
Unsure 10% 8% 6%

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Oct. 2014 civil beat poll full results

  • 1. CIVIL BEAT POLL QUESTIONNAIRE October 16 - 19, 2014 1) Aloha, we’re conducting a short survey about the upcoming election in Hawaii--including the race for Governor that includes David Ige, Mufi Hannemann, and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated]. Early voting has already started, and voting will end on November 4th. First, have you already voted early, by mail or at a walk-in voting center, have you note voted yet but are planning to vote early, are you planning to vote on Election Day, are you not sure when you will vote, or are you not likely to vote? 2) Who are you supporting in the race for Governor between Democrat David Ige, Independent candidate Mufi Hannemann, Liberatarian Jeff Davis, and Republican Duke Ainoa [candidate name order rotated]? 3) About how recently did you decide to support him? Within the past two weeks? Within the past month? Or have you supported him for more than a month? 4) If didn't select Ige or Aiona in Q2: If the election for Governor were only between David Ige and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated], with no other candidates, what would you do? 5) No matter which candidate you support for Governor, who do you thik is most likely to win? Your best guess is fine. 6) There is also an election for U.S. Senate between Brian Schatz and Cam Cavasso [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting?
  • 2. 7CD1a) First Congressional District Only: There is also an election for U.S. Congress in the First Congressional District between Mark Takai and Charles Djou [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting? 7CD1b) First Congressional District Only: About how recently did you decide to support him? Within the past two weeks? Within the past month? Or have you supported him for more than a month? 7CD2) Second Congressional District Only: There isl also an election for U.S. Congress in the Second Congressional District between Tulsi Gabbard and Kawika Crowley [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting? 8) There will also be a number of proposed amendments to Hawaii’s Constitution on the November ballot… One of them would amend Hawaii’s constitution to allow the state to use public funds to help pay for privately run early education programs for children in the years before they start Kindergarten. Would you most likely vote for this amendment, vote against this amendment, or not vote either way on this amendment? 9) Please think back to the Primary elections that took place in August. Did you vote in the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or neither one? 10) If Voted in Democratic Primary Only: In the Democratic primary for Governor, did you vote for David Ige, or Neil Abercrombie [candidate name order rotated]?
  • 3. Demographic Questions 1) Gender 2) Age 3) Ethnicity 4) Political ideology 5) Party I.D. 6) Have you, or a member of your immediate family such as a spouse, sibling, parent, or child, served in the U.S. Military? 7) Are you, or a member of your immediate family a member of a labor union? 8) Annual household income 9) County/Congressional District [on file]
  • 4. STATEWIDE RESULTS 1,221 Likely General Election Voters Margin of Error: +/-­‐ 2.8% October 16 -­‐19, 2014 70% Landlines, 30% Cell Phones Who are you supporting in the race for Governor between Democrat David Ige, Independent candidate Mufi Hannemann, Liberatarian Jeff Davis, and Republican Duke Ainoa [candidate name order rotated]? Governor Ige 40% Aiona 34% Hannemann 11% Davis 6% Undecided 8% No matter which candidate you support for Governor, who do you think is most likely to win? Gov_Predict Ige 48% Aiona 27% Hannemann 8% Davis 6% No Prediction 12% If didn't select Ige or Aiona: If the election for Governor were only between David Ige and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated], with no other candidates, what would you do? Subsample = 311 Gov_Two Candidates Ige 27% Aiona 26% Niether 22% Unsure 25%
  • 5. There is also an election for U.S. Senate between Brian Schatz and Cam Cavasso [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting? Senate Overall Schatz 55% Cavasso 29% Unsure 16% There will also be a number of proposed amendments to Hawaii’s Constitution on the November ballot… One of them would amend Hawaii’s constitution to allow the state to use public funds to help pay for privately run early education programs for children in the years before they start Kindergarten. Would you most likely vote for this amendment, vote against this amendment, or not vote either way on this amendment? School_Funding For 34% Against 50% Abstain 7% Unsure 9%
  • 6. First Congressional District Only: There is also an election for U.S. Congress in the First Congressional District between Mark Takai and Charles Djou [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting? 604 Likely General Election Voters in the First Cogressional District Margin of Error: +/-­‐ 4.0% October 16 -­‐19, 2014 CD1 Takai 45% Djou 45% Unsure 9% Second Congressional District Only: There isl also an election for U.S. Congress in the Second Congressional District between Tulsi Gabbard and Kawika Crowley [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting? 517 Likely General Election Voters in the Second Cogressional District Margin of Error: +/-­‐ 4.3% October 16 -­‐19, 2014 CD2 Gabbard 69% Crowley 19% Unsure 12%
  • 7. STATEWIDE DEMOGRAPHICS Gender Male 47% Female 52% Refused 1% Age Under 50 26% 50 or older 74% Ethnicity Caucasian 37% Japanese 29% Filipino 8% Hawaiian 10% Chinese 6% Hispanic 1% Other/Mixed 9% Refused 0% County_CD Oahu_1 52% Oahu_2 17% Hawaii 15% Maui 11% Kauai 5% Political Orientation Liberal 27% Moderate 31% Conservative 28% Unsure 14%
  • 8. Party ID Democrat 49% Republican 25% Independent 21% Unsure 5% Military Family Yes 58% No 39% Refused 3% Union Family Yes 35% No 61% Refused 4% Household Income Less than $50,000 28% $50,000 -­‐ $100,000 33% More than $100,000 19% Refused 19%
  • 9. CD1 DEMOGRAPHICS Gender Male 48% Female 52% Age Under 50 31% 50 or older 69% Ethnicity Caucasian 27% Japanese 36% Filipino 11% Hawaiian 7% Chinese 8% Hispanic 2% Other/Mixed 10% Politics Liberal 26% Moderate 31% Conservative 28% Unsure 14% Party_ID Democrat 45% Republican 27% Independent 23% Unsure 5% Military Family Yes 58% No 39% Refused 3%
  • 10. Union Family Yes 35% No 61% Refused 4% Household Income Less than $50,000 27% $50,000 -­‐ $100,000 30% $100,000+ 23% Refused 20%
  • 11. CD2 DEMOGRAPHICS Gender Male 47% Female 53% Age Under 50 21% 50 or older 79% Ethnicity Caucasian 47% Japanese 21% Filipino 5% Hawaiian 13% Chinese 4% Hispanic 1% Other/Mixed 9% County_CD Oahu_2 35% Hawaii 31% Maui 23% Kauai 11% Politics Liberal 29% Moderate 31% Conservative 27% Unsure 13% Party_ID Democrat 54% Republican 24% Independent 18% Unsure 4%
  • 12. Military Family Yes 59% No 39% Refused 2% Union Family Yes 35% No 61% Refused 4% Household Income Less than $50,000 30% $50,000 -­‐ $100,000 37% $100,000+ 15% Refused 18%
  • 13. GOVERNOR CROSSTABS Governor Male Female Ige 41% 40% Aiona 33% 35% Hannemann 12% 11% Davis 6% 6% Undecided 7% 8% Governor Under 50 50 or older Ige 37% 44% Aiona 40% 34% Hannemann 10% 11% Davis 5% 4% Undecided 7% 7% Governor Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed Ige 47% 49% 33% 28% 34% 36% 28% Aiona 35% 24% 42% 48% 42% 43% 35% Hannemann 9% 14% 11% 14% 7% 14% 12% Davis 5% 8% 3% 3% 1% 3% 6% Undecided 5% 5% 11% 8% 16% 5% 19% Governor Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai Ige 38% 39% 49% 40% 46% Aiona 37% 35% 31% 29% 24% Hannemann 11% 12% 10% 15% 9% Davis 5% 6% 8% 4% 13% Undecided 9% 8% 3% 12% 8% Governor Liberal Moderate Conservative Unsure Ige 69% 48% 16% 26% Aiona 8% 30% 65% 30% Hannemann 12% 11% 11% 13% Davis 6% 4% 5% 6% Undecided 4% 7% 3% 24%
  • 14. Governor Democrat Republican Independent Unsure Ige 66% 15% 24% 19% Aiona 13% 68% 47% 16% Hannemann 13% 9% 14% 2% Davis 3% 3% 10% 16% Undecided 6% 5% 6% 48% Governor Military Family Not a Military Family Ige 43% 42% Aiona 35% 32% Hannemann 11% 12% Davis 4% 6% Undecided 7% 7% Governor Union Family Not a Union Family Ige 48% 41% Aiona 27% 37% Hannemann 13% 11% Davis 7% 4% Undecided 4% 8% Governor Less than $50,000 $50,000 -­‐ $100,000 $100,000+ Ige 45% 46% 46% Aiona 31% 35% 29% Hannemann 12% 11% 13% Davis 8% 3% 4% Undecided 4% 4% 7%
  • 15. If didn't select Ige or Aiona: If the election for Governor were only between David Ige and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated], with no other candidates, what would you do? Subsample = 311 Governor_TwoCandidates Hannemann Davis Undecided Ige 39% 26% 11% Aiona 32% 36% 9% Neither 23% 29% 15% Unsure 6% 8% 65% If Voted in Democratic Primary Only: In the Democratic primary for Governor, did you vote for David Ige, or Neil Abercrombie [candidate name order rotated]? Subsample = 814 Governor Ige Abercrombie Unsure Ige 53% 62% 16% Aiona 26% 13% 39% Hannemann 10% 15% 8% Davis 6% 3% 10% Undecided 5% 6% 26% Gov_Decide Ige Aiona Hannemann Davis Two weeks 22% 17% 36% 30% One month 21% 15% 30% 23% Month plus 56% 66% 31% 32% Unsure 1% 2% 3% 15% Gov_Predict Ige Aiona Hannemann Davis Undecided Ige 83% 16% 32% 58% 26% Aiona 4% 64% 15% 8% 9% Hannemann 3% 2% 41% 12% 7% Davis 4% 7% 3% 15% 3% No Prediction 6% 11% 9% 7% 56%
  • 16. SENATE CROSSTABS Senate Male Female Schatz 53% 58% Cavasso 33% 25% Unsure 14% 17% Senate Under 50 50 or older Schatz 48% 58% Cavasso 33% 28% Unsure 20% 14% Senate Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed Schatz 60% 59% 51% 49% 43% 55% 48% Cavasso 29% 26% 28% 41% 30% 38% 28% Unsure 11% 15% 21% 10% 27% 7% 24% Senate Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai Schatz 52% 51% 66% 57% 58% Cavasso 29% 32% 25% 30% 23% Unsure 19% 17% 9% 12% 20% Senate Liberal Moderate Conservative Unsure Schatz 83% 61% 25% 50% Cavasso 8% 24% 63% 19% Unsure 9% 15% 12% 32% Senate Democrat Republican Independent Unsure Schatz 79% 26% 39% 46% Cavasso 10% 58% 46% 7% Unsure 11% 16% 15% 47%
  • 17. Senate Military Family Not a Military Family Schatz 55% 58% Cavasso 32% 26% Unsure 14% 16% Senate Union Family Not a Union Family Schatz 63% 53% Cavasso 26% 31% Unsure 11% 16% Senate Less than $50,000 $50,000 -­‐ $100,000 $100,000+ Schatz 58% 57% 63% Cavasso 28% 32% 30% Unsure 14% 12% 7%
  • 18. SCHOOL FUNDING CROSSTABS School_Funding Male Female For 32% 36% Against 56% 46% Abstain 7% 7% Unsure 5% 11% School_Funding Under 50 50 or older For 29% 37% Against 50% 51% Abstain 9% 4% Unsure 11% 7% School_Funding Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed For 39% 29% 41% 45% 24% 26% 28% Against 50% 56% 36% 48% 45% 58% 50% Abstain 3% 9% 13% 1% 6% 11% 11% Unsure 7% 6% 10% 6% 26% 5% 12% School_Funding Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai For 30% 31% 42% 38% 47% Against 51% 53% 51% 45% 39% Abstain 8% 6% 3% 11% 2% Unsure 10% 10% 4% 6% 12% School_Funding Liberal Moderate Conservative Unsure For 44% 27% 34% 35% Against 45% 56% 55% 39% Abstain 6% 8% 6% 5% Unsure 5% 9% 5% 21%
  • 19. School_Funding Democrat Republican Independent Unsure For 38% 31% 32% 31% Against 50% 53% 54% 26% Abstain 6% 8% 6% 5% Unsure 6% 8% 8% 38% School_Funding Military Family Not a Military Family For 33% 37% Against 52% 49% Abstain 5% 8% Unsure 9% 7% School_Funding Union Family Not a Union Family For 36% 35% Against 50% 51% Abstain 6% 6% Unsure 7% 8% School_Funding Less than $50,000 $50,000 -­‐ $100,000 $100,000+ For 35% 35% 38% Against 50% 52% 53% Abstain 7% 9% 1% Unsure 8% 4% 8%
  • 20. CD1 CROSSTABS CD1 Male Female Refused Takai 45% 47% 0% Djou 49% 42% 0% Unsure 6% 11% 100% CD1 Under 50 50 or older Takai 41% 47% Djou 50% 44% Unsure 10% 8% CD1 Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed Takai 50% 58% 26% 33% 34% 34% 40% Djou 44% 34% 63% 63% 50% 53% 44% Unsure 6% 9% 11% 4% 16% 13% 16% CD1 Liberal Moderate Conservative Unsure Takai 75% 55% 18% 32% Djou 19% 37% 80% 36% Unsure 6% 8% 3% 31% CD1 Democrat Republican Independent Unsure Takai 76% 18% 25% 35% Djou 18% 75% 65% 12% Unsure 6% 7% 9% 53%
  • 21. CD1 Military Family Not a Military Family Takai 48% 46% Djou 44% 44% Unsure 8% 10% CD1 Union Family Not a Union Family Takai 49% 46% Djou 42% 45% Unsure 8% 9% CD1 Less than $50,000 $50,000 -­‐ $100,000 $100,000+ Takai 47% 51% 52% Djou 41% 44% 47% Unsure 12% 4% 2% CD1_Decide Takai Djou Two weeks 20% 17% One month 22% 22% Month plus 57% 60% Unsure 1% 1%
  • 22. CD2 CROSSTABS CD2 Male Female Gabbard 68% 70% Crowley 23% 16% Unsure 9% 15% CD2 Under 50 50 or older Gabbard 70% 71% Crowley 23% 17% Unsure 8% 12% CD2 Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/Mixed Gabbard 70% 65% 79% 79% 51% 54% 70% Crowley 20% 23% 8% 17% 18% 28% 12% Unsure 10% 13% 13% 4% 31% 17% 18% CD2 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui Kauai Gabbard 63% 74% 72% 63% Crowley 19% 17% 19% 25% Unsure 18% 9% 9% 12% CD2 Liberal Moderate Conservative Unsure Gabbard 79% 76% 50% 76% Crowley 10% 15% 37% 7% Unsure 11% 9% 13% 17% CD2 Democrat Republican Independent Unsure Gabbard 85% 41% 60% 56% Crowley 7% 44% 23% 0% Unsure 7% 15% 17% 44%
  • 23. CD2 Military Family Not a Military Family Gabbard 70% 71% Crowley 19% 18% Unsure 11% 11% CD2 Union Family Not a Union Family Gabbard 77% 68% Crowley 16% 20% Unsure 7% 12% CD2 Less than $50,000 $50,000 -­‐ $100,000 $100,000+ Gabbard 76% 70% 78% Crowley 13% 22% 16% Unsure 10% 8% 6%