1) The Democratic party faces an important decision over the next four years on whether to fight against Republican majorities or find victories within the existing system.
2) While Republicans control most state and federal offices, Democrats received more total votes nationally in 2016 and won urban centers and diverse counties.
3) Democrats are well positioned to rebound by focusing on growing their base among non-white voters, younger white voters in cities, and voters in diverse and economically successful areas rather than trying to win back white rural voters who supported Trump.
The report measures attitudes and preferences regarding the 2020 presidential election, as well as attitudes about the current administration and its policies.
The report measures attitudes and preferences regarding the 2020 presidential election, as well as attitudes about the current administration and its policies.
The recent controversy surrounding Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill may not have had much impact on what Hoosiers think of the job he is doing.
As part of our Indy Politics scientific poll of 600 likely voters, conducted last week by Mason Strategies LLC, we asked about Hill’s favorable and unfavorable ratings.
5 Things You Need to Know About the Coming Trump vs. Clinton ShowdownAtif Fareed
What to expect if The Donald doesn’t change course, and what to expect if he does.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-election-things-you-should-know-213875#ixzz48Ld19944
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
The 2016 United States elections will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. During this presidential election year, the President of the United States and Vice President will be elected. In addition, elections will be held for all 435 voting-member seats in the United States House of Representatives (as well as all 6 non-voting delegate seats) and 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate. Twelve state governorships, two territorial governorships, and numerous other state and local elections will also be contested.
The United States presidential election of 2016 will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. The current electoral vote distribution was determined by the 2010 census. Presidential electors who will elect the President and Vice President of the United States will be chosen; a simple majority (270) of the 538 electoral votes are required to win the election. The incumbent president, Democrat Barack Obama, is ineligible to be elected to a third term due to term limits established by the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution. There are numerous potential candidates in the Republican Party, Democratic Party, and among third parties. Assuming Barack Obama serves out his full term, the winner of this election will become the 45th President of the United States.
Rafael Edward “Ted” Cruz (born December 22, 1970) is the junior United States Senator from Texas. Elected in 2012, he is the first Cuban American or Latino to hold the office of US Senator from Texas. Cruz is a member of the Republican Party. He served as Solicitor General of Texas from 2003 to May 2008, after being appointed by Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott. Between 1999 and 2003, Cruz served as the director of the Office of Policy Planning at the Federal Trade Commission, an Associate Deputy Attorney General at the United States Department of Justice, and as Domestic Policy Advisor to U.S. President George W. Bush on the 2000 Bush-Cheney campaign. Cruz was also an Adjunct Professor of Law at the University of Texas School of Law in Austin, where he taught U.S. Supreme Court litigation, from 2004 to 2009.
He was the first Hispanic Solicitor General in Texas, the youngest Solicitor General of Texas, and the longest-serving Solicitor General in Texas’ history. Cruz is one of three Latinos in the Senate; the others — also Americans of Cuban ancestry — are fellow Republican Marco Rubio of Florida and Democrat Bob Menendez of New Jersey.
The Electoral System of the USA // The 2012 Presidential ElectionValentinSchraub
I have created this presentation for an English exam in my last year at the Immanuel Kant high school in Leinfelden, Germany. It is about the 2012 presidential election in the United States and its electoral system. I got 14 out of 15 credits for this presentation and after it I conducted a spontaneous survey among the 15 students on who they would vote for if they were Americans. 13 out of 15 voted for Barack Obama, the remaining two for Mitt Romney.
The American Presidency Project contains the most comprehensive collection of resources ... Presidential Elections Data: ... click the slide share on election year for detail .
Winner-Take-All? The Troubled History Of The Electoral college And The Popula...Sean Moore
November 8th, 2016 the United States for the fifth time in 192 years was confronted with a candidate winning the presidency without winning the popular vote. The Electoral College designed by the founding fathers is once again confounding and angering voters, much like it first did in the 1824 presidential election. Why do we have an electoral system? Why don't we have a more democratic method of electing presidents?
State FloridaElectoral Votes 29Issues Florida has a la.docxdessiechisomjj4
State: Florida
Electoral Votes: 29
Issues: “Florida has a large, diverse and transient population..” (Farrington) Florida contains a large Hispanic population which normally votes Democratic. The state of Florida is also home to a lot of retirees which are usually split between Democrats and Republicans. The retirees are going to focus on pensions, healthcare and state funded aid, while Hispanics want to focus on healthcare and immigration laws.
Key Groups: Retirees and non-Hispanic Whites
Voting History: (270towin.com)
2012- Democratic
2008- Democratic
2004- Republican
2000- Republican
1996- Democratic
Demographic Breakdown:
White- 75%
African American- 16%
Hispanic- 6.5%
“Based on the 2010 Census, Hispanics represent about 22.5% of Florida’s population.” (edr.state.fl.us)
In order to win the state of Florida I would put a lot of focus into immigration laws and helping the minorities get out of poverty. “Florida’s minority percentage of the population is 42.1%.” (edr.state.fl.us) I would put a lot of focus on Social Security and Healthcare (Obamacare) because I know money and healthcare are two of the biggest concerns for retirees. “17.6% of Florida’s population is aged 65 and over.” (infoplease.com) 17.6% is a lot of people to have with the same mind set and the same way of thinking, so you need to appease them.
State: Virginia
Electoral Votes: 13
Issues: The main issue that Virginia faces is unemployment. Virginia’s unemployment rate currently sits at 4.8%. (bls.gov) One of the major employers for the state of Virginia is the defense industry, which makes federal money very important to the state’s economic performance. (Hartfield)
Key Groups: Minority groups and Young College Graduates
Voting History
2012- Democratic
2008- Democratic
2004- Republican
2000- Republican
1996- Democratic
Demographic Breakdown:
White- 71.3%
Black- 19.8%
Asian- 5.8%
Hispanic- 8.2%
In order to win the state of Virginia I would have to focus on creating jobs and getting federal funding to support defense jobs. I would also focus on higher education and student loan debt due to the large population of young college graduates.
“A swing state in American Politics is one that has a high probability of tipping the balance presidential elections in favor of one candidate.” (Murse) Swing states are states in which the voters will alternatively switch between supporting Democrats and Republicans during Presidential elections. Swing States are important during Presidential elections because the political parties have no idea which way the states vote is going to “swing.” LOL “There were more blue states than red states in the U.S. in 2012 by a margin of 20 to 12. (Saad) I think that the swing states will be the closest races during the next presidential election. The only thing that the candidates can do in order to win these states over is focus on the Demographics and appease to their needs. I think that candidates will focus more strongly on swing states .
The recent controversy surrounding Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill may not have had much impact on what Hoosiers think of the job he is doing.
As part of our Indy Politics scientific poll of 600 likely voters, conducted last week by Mason Strategies LLC, we asked about Hill’s favorable and unfavorable ratings.
5 Things You Need to Know About the Coming Trump vs. Clinton ShowdownAtif Fareed
What to expect if The Donald doesn’t change course, and what to expect if he does.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-election-things-you-should-know-213875#ixzz48Ld19944
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
The 2016 United States elections will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. During this presidential election year, the President of the United States and Vice President will be elected. In addition, elections will be held for all 435 voting-member seats in the United States House of Representatives (as well as all 6 non-voting delegate seats) and 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate. Twelve state governorships, two territorial governorships, and numerous other state and local elections will also be contested.
The United States presidential election of 2016 will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. The current electoral vote distribution was determined by the 2010 census. Presidential electors who will elect the President and Vice President of the United States will be chosen; a simple majority (270) of the 538 electoral votes are required to win the election. The incumbent president, Democrat Barack Obama, is ineligible to be elected to a third term due to term limits established by the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution. There are numerous potential candidates in the Republican Party, Democratic Party, and among third parties. Assuming Barack Obama serves out his full term, the winner of this election will become the 45th President of the United States.
Rafael Edward “Ted” Cruz (born December 22, 1970) is the junior United States Senator from Texas. Elected in 2012, he is the first Cuban American or Latino to hold the office of US Senator from Texas. Cruz is a member of the Republican Party. He served as Solicitor General of Texas from 2003 to May 2008, after being appointed by Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott. Between 1999 and 2003, Cruz served as the director of the Office of Policy Planning at the Federal Trade Commission, an Associate Deputy Attorney General at the United States Department of Justice, and as Domestic Policy Advisor to U.S. President George W. Bush on the 2000 Bush-Cheney campaign. Cruz was also an Adjunct Professor of Law at the University of Texas School of Law in Austin, where he taught U.S. Supreme Court litigation, from 2004 to 2009.
He was the first Hispanic Solicitor General in Texas, the youngest Solicitor General of Texas, and the longest-serving Solicitor General in Texas’ history. Cruz is one of three Latinos in the Senate; the others — also Americans of Cuban ancestry — are fellow Republican Marco Rubio of Florida and Democrat Bob Menendez of New Jersey.
The Electoral System of the USA // The 2012 Presidential ElectionValentinSchraub
I have created this presentation for an English exam in my last year at the Immanuel Kant high school in Leinfelden, Germany. It is about the 2012 presidential election in the United States and its electoral system. I got 14 out of 15 credits for this presentation and after it I conducted a spontaneous survey among the 15 students on who they would vote for if they were Americans. 13 out of 15 voted for Barack Obama, the remaining two for Mitt Romney.
The American Presidency Project contains the most comprehensive collection of resources ... Presidential Elections Data: ... click the slide share on election year for detail .
Winner-Take-All? The Troubled History Of The Electoral college And The Popula...Sean Moore
November 8th, 2016 the United States for the fifth time in 192 years was confronted with a candidate winning the presidency without winning the popular vote. The Electoral College designed by the founding fathers is once again confounding and angering voters, much like it first did in the 1824 presidential election. Why do we have an electoral system? Why don't we have a more democratic method of electing presidents?
State FloridaElectoral Votes 29Issues Florida has a la.docxdessiechisomjj4
State: Florida
Electoral Votes: 29
Issues: “Florida has a large, diverse and transient population..” (Farrington) Florida contains a large Hispanic population which normally votes Democratic. The state of Florida is also home to a lot of retirees which are usually split between Democrats and Republicans. The retirees are going to focus on pensions, healthcare and state funded aid, while Hispanics want to focus on healthcare and immigration laws.
Key Groups: Retirees and non-Hispanic Whites
Voting History: (270towin.com)
2012- Democratic
2008- Democratic
2004- Republican
2000- Republican
1996- Democratic
Demographic Breakdown:
White- 75%
African American- 16%
Hispanic- 6.5%
“Based on the 2010 Census, Hispanics represent about 22.5% of Florida’s population.” (edr.state.fl.us)
In order to win the state of Florida I would put a lot of focus into immigration laws and helping the minorities get out of poverty. “Florida’s minority percentage of the population is 42.1%.” (edr.state.fl.us) I would put a lot of focus on Social Security and Healthcare (Obamacare) because I know money and healthcare are two of the biggest concerns for retirees. “17.6% of Florida’s population is aged 65 and over.” (infoplease.com) 17.6% is a lot of people to have with the same mind set and the same way of thinking, so you need to appease them.
State: Virginia
Electoral Votes: 13
Issues: The main issue that Virginia faces is unemployment. Virginia’s unemployment rate currently sits at 4.8%. (bls.gov) One of the major employers for the state of Virginia is the defense industry, which makes federal money very important to the state’s economic performance. (Hartfield)
Key Groups: Minority groups and Young College Graduates
Voting History
2012- Democratic
2008- Democratic
2004- Republican
2000- Republican
1996- Democratic
Demographic Breakdown:
White- 71.3%
Black- 19.8%
Asian- 5.8%
Hispanic- 8.2%
In order to win the state of Virginia I would have to focus on creating jobs and getting federal funding to support defense jobs. I would also focus on higher education and student loan debt due to the large population of young college graduates.
“A swing state in American Politics is one that has a high probability of tipping the balance presidential elections in favor of one candidate.” (Murse) Swing states are states in which the voters will alternatively switch between supporting Democrats and Republicans during Presidential elections. Swing States are important during Presidential elections because the political parties have no idea which way the states vote is going to “swing.” LOL “There were more blue states than red states in the U.S. in 2012 by a margin of 20 to 12. (Saad) I think that the swing states will be the closest races during the next presidential election. The only thing that the candidates can do in order to win these states over is focus on the Demographics and appease to their needs. I think that candidates will focus more strongly on swing states .
Campaigns can now move beyond conventional demographic voting blocs to discover the real issue positions and priorities that drive voter's actions.
Resonate leveraged its expansive primary survey data and analytics platform to identify 10 key voter segments based on the issue positions and values that motivate voters to support a candidate.
Consumer Energy Alliance Poll of Voters in NC, VA, WV re Atlantic Coast PipelineMarcellus Drilling News
A poll conducted for the Consumer Energy Alliance that shows majorities of voters in NC, VA and WV have heard about Dominion's $5 billion, 550-mile Atlantic Coast Pipeline--and they support it. Voters overwhelmingly believe pipelines are the safest means to transport natural gas. More than 80% of the voters surveyed said energy will be a significant factor in how they vote. It also shows pipelines and drilling is a partisan issue--a majority of Republicans/Conservatives are in favor, and a majority of Democrats/Liberals are against.
As the midterm elections have come and gone, we can now look back on the issues that voters cared about most, where voter opinions lie on key issues, and more. Our Research team compiled the most pertinent results in their Midterm Election Recap deck.
Similar to Where do we go from here - the democratic party opportunities over the next four years (14)
Levelwise PageRank with Loop-Based Dead End Handling Strategy : SHORT REPORT ...Subhajit Sahu
Abstract — Levelwise PageRank is an alternative method of PageRank computation which decomposes the input graph into a directed acyclic block-graph of strongly connected components, and processes them in topological order, one level at a time. This enables calculation for ranks in a distributed fashion without per-iteration communication, unlike the standard method where all vertices are processed in each iteration. It however comes with a precondition of the absence of dead ends in the input graph. Here, the native non-distributed performance of Levelwise PageRank was compared against Monolithic PageRank on a CPU as well as a GPU. To ensure a fair comparison, Monolithic PageRank was also performed on a graph where vertices were split by components. Results indicate that Levelwise PageRank is about as fast as Monolithic PageRank on the CPU, but quite a bit slower on the GPU. Slowdown on the GPU is likely caused by a large submission of small workloads, and expected to be non-issue when the computation is performed on massive graphs.
Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation - Final Version - 5.23...John Andrews
SlideShare Description for "Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation"
Title: Chatty Kathy: Enhancing Physical Activity Among Older Adults
Description:
Discover how Chatty Kathy, an innovative project developed at the UNC Bootcamp, aims to tackle the challenge of low physical activity among older adults. Our AI-driven solution uses peer interaction to boost and sustain exercise levels, significantly improving health outcomes. This presentation covers our problem statement, the rationale behind Chatty Kathy, synthetic data and persona creation, model performance metrics, a visual demonstration of the project, and potential future developments. Join us for an insightful Q&A session to explore the potential of this groundbreaking project.
Project Team: Jay Requarth, Jana Avery, John Andrews, Dr. Dick Davis II, Nee Buntoum, Nam Yeongjin & Mat Nicholas
Where do we go from here - the democratic party opportunities over the next four years
1. 1 | P a g e
Where do we go from here - The Democratic Party
Opportunities over the next four years
Well, this is going to be an interesting next four years. Republicans are celebrating significant victories
across the spectrum. Republican’s control the Presidency, both houses of Congress, 37 State Senate
Legislative chambers (55.5% of the elected state senate positions, while Democrats control 40.8%), 31
State House of Representative chambers (56% of elected state representative positions, while Democrats
control 43.2%). Republicans control 33 of the 50 State Governorships and a majority of the state supreme
courts that are partisan. Overall, Republicans hold majority partisan shares in the estimated 13 state
executive offices in the United States, even though not all offices exist across all states. Of the 13 offices,
seven appear in all 50 states, including: governor, attorney general, superintendent of schools, insurance
commissioner, agriculture commissioner, labor commissioner and public service commissioner.
Looking at the data, the Democratic Party has an important decision to make for the next four years, fight
the republican wave or acquiesce to their majorities and attempt to find victories within the confines of
the existing political governance model.
This crossroads and elected control Siberia is also counter to their overall voter advantages. With a poor
candidate, poor message and a bombastic force of personality opposed to the Democratic candidate,
Hillary Clinton still was able to win the overall popular vote by 2.1% and 2.864 million votes over
Donald Trump (65,845,030). Candidates not named Donald Trump won 73,982,422 votes, equaling
54.02% of the total ballots cast for President, so the truth is, 2016 did not mark a fundamental shift in the
American electorate—and revamping the Democratic Party’s entire political strategy would be an
enormous mistake. “This was an extreme election,” says William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings
Institution. Trump won the highest share of white voters since Reagan v Mondale at 61%. His voter share
of white voters to non-white voters was 87.4% white to 13.6% non-white, making his coalition the most
disproportionately white for a Republican ever. Hillary had the lowest Democratic white voter share ever
at 32%, doing worse than Walter Mondale who received only 34% of the vote in 1984.
All of that being stated, Democrats are in a solid position to rebound without the need to return to the
white working class voter community. In the 30 states that Donald Trump won, in which 47.32% of the
ballots were cast against Trump, even though Hillary Clinton only won 41.89% of those votes.
Conversely, in the 20 states and District of Columbia won by Hillary Clinton, the rejection of Trump was
more pronounced, with 62.79% of the voters voting for non-Trump candidates and Hillary Clinton
winning 56.04%. Clinton and Democrats won 88 of the 100 largest counties (including Washington
D.C.), which provided a vote margin of over 14.4 million votes above Trump. Democrats and Clinton
delivered a dominant performance in most urban centers and many affluent white-collar suburbs. She held
Trump to less than one-fourth of the vote in such mega-counties as Manhattan, Cook (Chicago), and Los
Angeles; expanded on Obama’s margins in growing Sunbelt cities such as Miami, Charlotte, and
Houston; and utterly routed Trump in thriving new economy centers like Austin, Silicon Valley, and
Seattle.
The common thread in these data points are:
Increasing ethnic and racial diversity of these voters - 55.5% of the new Democratic voter base
were non-white including 22% being African American, 18.1% being Latino and 6% being
Asian, 24.4% of the other candidates voters were non-white)
The actual impact of voters of color and their rejection of Trump – The anti-Donald Trump vote
among communities of color tallied 82.9% of theie share of the electorate (46,567,100 non-white
2. 2 | P a g e
American voters; 36,568,869 votes for Hillary Clinton (78.5%); 7,957,496 votes for Donald
Trump (17.1%); 1,985,950 votes for other candidates (4.3%).
Non-Trump White voters who are more open to living in multi-cultural communities - the non-
Trump white voter base (44.5% of the Democratic base and 75.4% of the Third Party candidate
voter base, 39% of white voters overall, equaling 35,132,095 voters) are primarily urban dwellers,
younger, college educated professional or entrepreneurial in new economy activities, traditional
protestant or non-Evangelical Christians, unmarried and LGBTQ),
Lives in the counties that generate the majority of the economic output and job growth in
America over the past 8 years - 65% GDP contribution from the 430 counties Hillary won and job
growth rate of 15% versus 35% GDP contribution & 4% job growth rate in Trump counties.
Despite pronouncements otherwise, is spiritually diverse - The Democratic Party’s faith based
voter consist of African American voters of faith (70% are Christian, 7% are Muslim and 8% are
of other faiths), Asian voters of faith (majority of the overall voter population are either Christian
or Muslim), Latino voters of faith (over 86% are Christian), Arabic voters (over 90% are Muslim
or Christian), Jewish voters, and white Christians (Lutheran, Methodist, Presbyterian and other
Protestant non-evangelical religions).
So, if you’re Democrats and their party, what do you do? Do you follow the pundits and Trump, who say
you have to win back the former white Democratic voting base at all cost or do you shift to the voting
consumer groups who are buying your products currently. The comfortable logic will say that Democrats
must fight Trump for these voters, that there isn’t enough of the geographical diversity needed to reverse
Democratic fortunes in state based elections. I definitely disagree with this strategy. The democrats have a
winning base, they need to learn how to better maximize this across geographical lines to maximize voter
impact and electoral success.
The non-Trump white voter base will grow in four years - 6,956,933 younger white voters who will
be aging into the voting population by 2020 versus an expected 7,048,854 white eligible voters who
may die prior to the next election (via trending mortality rates by ethnicity). Those lost voters due to
mortality typically are in the age clusters of 50 and older and live in rural, exburbs and non-urban
counties, which will dampen the white Republican voting base numbers. The new White voting base is
younger (only 16% are older than the age of 65) and more educated then their Republican white voter
counterparts (Only 11% are non-college educated white males). By 2020, the white non-Trump voting
coalition voters could comprise 58.6 million white adults, 37.6% of the potential white Non-Hispanic,
Jewish, Arabic, Some Other ethnicity ID adult population
Increase in the overall non-white adult population - the minority share of the electorate, which stood at
just 23 percent in 2000, will soar to 40 percent by 2032. There are 46,567,100 non-white American who
voted in the 2016 general election, another 41,651,148 non-white eligible American adults who didn’t
vote and there are another 6,764,062 who are ages 15, 16 and 17 who will be joining the electorate by
2020. By 2020, the combined potential of the Minority adult voters could comprise 102.04 million
(factoring in projected morality rates, immigration considerations and the age in rate of teenagers of
color). Expecting participation of 60% by this voting consumer base, there would be an estimated 60
million non-white likely voters across America in 2020.
3. 3 | P a g e
Geographical diversity is growing - 39 percent of African Americans live in the suburbs, 36 percent live
in cities, 15 percent live in small metropolitan areas, and 10 percent live in rural communities. That’s a
noticeable shift from 2000, when 41 percent of African Americans lived in cities, 33 percent lived in
suburbs, 15 percent lived in small metro areas, and 11 percent lived in rural communities. Many middle-
class African Americans, priced out of cities such as San Francisco and New York, are moving to Sun
Belt areas such as Phoenix and San Antonio. Between 2010 and 2015, the black population of the
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale metropolitan area grew 17.9 percent. The black population of the San Antonio
metropolitan area also grew 17.9 percent, according to Aaron Renn, a senior fellow at the Manhattan
Institute. Among the other fastest-growing cities for African Americans were Austin, Orlando, Las Vegas,
Seattle, Minneapolis, and Dallas.
The growing diversity of the swing states – Democrats fared well in states with the fastest-changing
demographics. Clinton won Virginia (+5.32%), Colorado (+4.91%), and Nevada (2.42%). She also cut
into the GOP’s victory margins from 2012 in Arizona, Texas, and Georgia (Texas 9%, Arizona 3.5% and
Georgia 5.1%) to single digits. But in North Carolina and Florida lost Florida by 1.14% and North
Carolina by 3.66% of the votes cast —two battleground states expected to trend blue in the future.
Winning the Presidency came down to a narrow margin of 77,000 votes in three key states (Michigan
0.22%, Wisconsin 0.76% and Pennsylvania 0.72%), while these states have sizable and growing minority
adult populations (Michigan 27% trending towards 30% by 2020, Wisconsin 19% trending towards 24%
by 2020 and Pennsylvania 26% trending towards 30% by 2020). This is a razor thin margin for Trump
going forward, requiring an even bigger share of the white voting population to shift to Trump in 2020.
The majority of the Swing states in America are continuing to increase their population and faith based
diversity that can benefit Democrats in 2020. Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico are or
will be minority majority adult population states by 2020. North Carolina will be less than 60% white and
Michigan and Pennsylvania should be below 70% white and Minnesota and Ohio will move closer
towards the 70% white threshold. This doesn’t include the growing diversity of Colorado and Virginia,
which went Democratic and New Hampshire which has Democratic and Independent leaning voters. All
of the major battleground states also have large population segments of faith based Democratic voters
(29% or higher population share) and sizable non-religious populations that vote Democratic (20% or
higher population shares.
The struggle of tending to an America that doesn’t exist anymore - the Republican Party voter
consumer base was 87.4% white, 4% Latino, 2% African American and only 12.3% nonwhite. Since
1980, working-class whites have seen their share of the electorate plunge by about 30 percent—and it will
continue to decline another two to three points every four years. Meanwhile, the “rising majority” that
favors Democrats—single and professional women, people of color, and millennials—will continue to
grow. Additionally, there are another 6,956,933 younger white voters who will be aging into the voting
population by 2020 versus an expected 7,048,854 white eligible voters who may die prior to the next
election (via trending mortality rates by ethnicity). Those lost voters due to mortality typically are in
the age clusters of 50 and older and live in rural, exburbs and non-urban counties, which will dampen the
white Republican voting base numbers.