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The Future
of Retail
September 2012 | Marketing and Merchandising
Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 2
Manage the ambiguous future with
strategic foresight
Daily blog posts. Monthly magazines. Quarterly trend reports. Must-read
books. Anyone who works at the intersection of technology and people is
swimming in information.This data smog can make deciphering the
implications of the latest tech and social developments difficult. One solution
is strategic foresight, which can help you make sense of emerging trends and
clearly evaluate your options for the future. It’s a tool to manage risk when
facing ambiguity in the marketplace.
Strategic foresight doesn’t predict the future, but it does help prepare you for
it by envisioning a number of different, yet possible, future states in the
market landscape 10+ years from now.These future states are often described
as a set of scenarios, and they emerge from an analysis of current trends.
So, as a simple example, the increasing popularity of pop-up retail spaces,
combined with the high adoption of mobile devices, could develop into a
future filled with transient storefronts.This scenario would be made possible
due to the minimal wired infrastructure required for information and
payment.
The rapid uptake of technology means that our social lives, cultural
experiences, policies, regulations, ecological landscape, and business models
are increasingly intertwined.Through its very design, strategic foresight is
built to accommodate complexity by considering trends from a
multi-dimensional perspective.
Steps of strategic foresight
Trend scan
Identify trend drivers
Evaluate critical uncertainties
Future scenarios
Strategic implications
Action plan
Monitor trends
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Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 3
Why Retail Foresight?
The Nurun Strategic Foresight team has launched a strategic foresight
initiative to articulate the future of business-to-consumer (“B2C”) retail and
commerce, and explore implications for Canadian and U.S. retailers.The
scenarios we generate will give our retail clients the toolkit necessary to start
imagining (and preparing for) the possible futures in the marketplace.
The first of seven steps in the strategic foresight process involves trend
scanning.The trends we capture will be published as a series of trend
reports that focus on five domains of importance to both online and
omni-channel retailers.
This is the first of five trend reports, and it looks at retail through the lens of
marketing and merchandising. Next will be a report on business models,
followed by transactions and payments, analytics, and emerging technology
platforms.The culmination of trend scanning and subsequent phases will
inform future scenarios in our final stratgic foresight report. For more
information, you can follow the project on Nurun’s blog, Digital for Real
Life or subscribe to our email list, futureofretail@nurun.com.
Steps of strategic foresight
Trend scan
Identify trend drivers
Evaluate critical uncertainties
Future scenarios
Strategic implications
Action plan
Monitor trends
Marketing and Merchandising
Business Models
Transactions & Payments
Analytics
Emerging Technology Platforms
Preparing for the Future of
Retail: A Strategic Foresight
Report
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Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 4
Introduction
Over the last five years, new forms of technology have radically altered,
augmented and disrupted how Canadian and U.S. retailers approach many
fundamental aspects of their business. New devices such as tablets and
smartphones, along with an explosion of social media channels, have meant
that retailers are able to market and merchandise their products in a
number of novel ways.Technology is both a blessing and curse, however, as
it has introduced new competitive pressures. It has also significantly altered
buying behavior, forcing retailers to react and adapt to a smarter and more
informed consumer.
Retailers continue to struggle with the fact that consumers are taking
advantage of new technologies to locate, research and compare products,
thanks to a trend toward Social Product Discovery, Consideration and
Evaluation. In order to better attract and entertain their customers, retailers
have started to take inspiration from film and print magazines in a trend of
Product Placement Morphs Into Content + Commerce.
Retailers also need to make sure they reach customers wherever they are,
seamlessly integrating and supporting the shopping experience across
multiple channels.This might mean creating digital catalogues for the iPad so
customers can browse and purchase products directly from their tablet, or
allowing customers to order laundry detergent through a smartphone app
that can scan items on a wall poster thanks to The Integrated Expansion of
the Omni-Channel Storefront trend.
U.S and Canadian retailers are also trying to reconcile the promises of The
New Geography of Merchandising trend with the reality that e-commerce
is not yet borderless. Duties, shipping fees and supplier markup have meant
significantly higher prices for Canadians who wish to buy products from U.S.
retailers, be it in-store or online.
New e-commerce developments, while providing many benefits for both
consumers and retailers, can come at a personal cost, as the I’ll Trade my
Privacy for a $5 Coupon trend demonstrates. Retailers are reacting in very
different ways to the shifts in how consumer data is being collected and
utilized.
Some aspects of retail remain constant, however. Emerging technologies are
being used by retailers to deliver century-old marketing and merchandising
strategies like coupons, while bulk discounts and private labeling have new-
Defining Our Terms
“You have to be really agile
and flexible in how you
deliver information to people
and give them choices. There
was a time years ago when
retailers and packaged goods
companies dictated what
consumers could have. Now
it’s the other way around.”
Joanna Track,
Founder and CEO of eLUXE
Given our expertise in the
realm of digital retail, we
defined retail marketing to
include:
• Product findability and discoverability
• Recommendation and comparison tools
• Social commerce
• Issues relating to consumer privacy
Our examination of
merchandising trends
focused on:
• Pricing
• Localization of assortment
• Product presentation
Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 5
found relevance, as demonstrated by the Sophisticated Frugality trend.
Canadian and U.S. retailers will need to contend with these trends if they wish to
remain successful in the coming decade.This report offers a thought- provoking
look at each of the six key trends mentioned above, along with a series of provocative
questions that relate to each trend.
A complete strategic foresight report that incorporates these six marketing and mer-
chandising trends, along with key retail trends relating to business models, value ex-
change, analytics and emerging technology platforms, will be released in early 2013.
Social Product Discovery, Consideration and Evaluation
Product Placement Morphs Into Content + Commerce
The Integrated Expansion of the Omni-Channel Storefront
The New Geography of Merchandising
I’ll Trade my Privacy for a $5 Coupon
Sophisticated Frugality
The Nurun Strategic Foresight team found six key trends relating to marketing and merchandising:
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Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 6
Trend
Social Product Discovery,
Consideration and Evaluation
1 3 54 62
1
Trend
Want to find the perfect gift for a friend’s birthday? Rather than taking your
best guess as you wander around a local mall, you can now utilize your
friend’s Facebook data to generate a more relevant list of suggestions.That’s
the premise of a mobile app called Karma, which helps people discover,
consider and evaluate products and services for purchase.Through Facebook
integration, Karma is able to send out birthday reminders for close friends
and provide personalized gift ideas. Karma, along with other social discovery
and recommendation sites such as LYST, Glimpse, and Curisma, speak to a
consumer desire for social approval and belonging.
At the same time, a number of visual discovery tools have emerged to make
the process of online browsing more efficient and visually pleasing. Many of
these tools borrow inspiration from Pinterest, an image sharing website that
allows users to pin their favourite images onto unique digital boards.
Fancy, for example, is an online store that combines elements of blogs and
magazines with a wish list function, while Polyvore encourages users to act
like magazine editors and curate collections of their favourite fashion finds.
Sites like Lockerz, meanwhile, allow customers to act as brand ambassadors,
a function traditionally performed by celebrity endorsements.
A March 2012, Bizrate Insights Online Consumer Pulse report found that
32 percent of online consumers have purchased a product after seeing it on a
social image sharing site such as Pinterest, Juxtapost, Discoveredd, Fancy or
Polyvore. (Silver,Tan, & Mitchell, 2012).These sites tap into the long-
standing popularity of in-store window-shopping, but eliminate the need for
consumers to visit multiple websites in order to recreate the same experience
online.
For Canadian and U.S. retailers, this trend presents an opportunity to move
beyond the use of on-site dynamic product recommendation and merchan-
dising tools, such as Certona, RichRelevance, and PredictiveIntent. Some
retailers are starting to offer personalized assortments and storefronts,
including Amazon’s “My Store,” (Amazon.com, Inc., 2012).While these tools
are frequently used to boost online conversion, they can alienate privacy-
conscious customers when used improperly, as discovered by omni-channel
retailer Urban Outfitters (Singer, 2012). In the same way, retailers are work-
ing to find the right approach to retargeting and remarketing, two techniques
that involve displaying online ads for products from websites consumers have
recently visited (Hof, 2012).
“Collective consumers have
great power. Communities
now form around dissatisfac-
tion and they instantly scale
and become really influential
and powerful. And they often
appear out of the vapor.”
Joe Jackman,
CEO of Joe Jackman Brand Inc.
“The big challenge is to strip
away the marketing hype and
spin and find the commercial
utility in word-of-mouth re-
ferrals. A friend recommend-
ing to a friend is still one of
the most powerful sales driv-
ers. But getting beyond the
technobabble can be tough.”
Dr. Paul Marsden,
Editor of Social Commerce Today
Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 7
1 3 54 62Trend
Meanwhile, social discovery and recommendation sites such as Krush (Walker,
2012) and retailers such as Modcloth (Amed & Company, 2012) are collecting
customer product preferences and post-purchase feedback.This data is then used to
create new products and better respond to shifts in supply and demand for exist-
ing items. Clothing company Betabrand has gone so far as to encourage customers
to submit new clothing ideas for community consideration (Kavilanz, 2011).These
user-submitted ideas are then turned into new Betabrand products if sufficient
consumer interest exists (Kavilanz, 2011).
Looking ahead, retailers should stop viewing their online catalogues as walled-
gardens and look for ways to attract new customers by showcasing a curated
selection of products across a variety of niche social discovery sites. Otherwise, visual
discovery tools might augment their e-commerce capabilities, leading to increased
retail competition. Retailers also need to treat customer feedback as a source of
future product innovation and incorporate this feedback into their merchandising
analytics so they can be more nimble in adjusting their catalogue assortments.
Are you ready to distribute your products not only
through your own e-commerce site, but also Pinterest
and Fancy? Are you prepared to let your customers make
suggestions for new products? Would you be willing to put
“talking” price tags on your in-store merchandise so that
customers could instantly connect to an external social
recommendation tool through their smartphones?
FORWARD THINKING
Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 8
Trend
Product Placement Morphs
Into Content + Commerce
1 3 54 62
2
Trend
The print magazine industry has struggled to stay relevant over the last
decade as consumers turn to blogs such as Fashionista, Gizmodo, and
ApartmentTherapy as their preferred source of information about new
products. At the same, retailers are starting to realize that engaging lifestyle
content integrated within an e-commerce environment can be a very
compelling method of speaking to consumers.The mixture of content and
commerce also provides new opportunities for creative merchandising
approaches, visual narratives and brand curation.
This helps to explain why the humble email newsletter remains a viable way
to market new products, used by companies as varied as the Gilt Groupe and
Sephora. Some retailers, including Zappos, publish a monthly magazine of
original content to promote their products and reinforce their overall brand
image.
Meanwhile, online luxury retailers including eLUXE, MR PORTER, and
IWC provide specific fashion and lifestyle advice alongside their products.
This advice resembles the how-to style guides found in legacy print
publications such as Vogue or Esquire, but their e-commerce platforms allow
for a more seamless and rapid process of discovery and purchase.This type of
approach represents the latest evolution of the advertorial.
More sophisticated versions of this trend involve shoppable online videos. By
embedding their clothing line within a music video, SSENSE was able to put
a fresh spin on the traditional fashion catalogue (FKi, Azalea, Diplo, 2012).
This video served to demonstrate products in a relevant lifestyle context and
entertained younger consumers who may be tired of traditional marketing
approaches.
In the same way, short films created and produced by companies such as
BMW and Chanel showcases sophisticated narratives with brand and product
integration. A recent example is Karl Lagerfeld’s multi-part branded film The
Tale of a Fairy (2012).
In many cases, Canadian and U.S. retailers can take advantage of existing
content (blog posts, online video) to generate newsletters or produce
magazine-like experiences on their websites. A successful blend of content
and commerce might require retailers to think like a publisher and develop an
editorial calendar so that fresh, engaging content can be created and
published on a regular schedule.
“Collective consumers have
great power. Communities
now form around dissatisfac-
tion and they instantly scale
and become really influential
and powerful. And they often
appear out of the vapor.”
Joe Jackman,
CEO of Joe Jackman Brand Inc.
Is your company ready to hire editorial staff in order to
create a retail catalogue that leads with editorial and offers
embedded e-commerce options, indistinguishable from
a content-rich online magazine? Is your brand robust
enough to create captivating stories?
FORWARD THINKING
Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 9
Trend
The Integrated Expansion of the
Omni-Channel Storefront
1 2 54 63
3
Trend
Mobile technology makes it possible to offer time-strapped consumers the
convenience of purchasing products from almost anywhere. In response, a
number of unique sales channels have emerged, including QR code enabled
virtual storefronts. Canadian online retailer Well.ca used the public walls of a
transit corridor to display photos of dozens of products that consumers could
purchase by pointing at specific items with a smartphone app. eBay has also
created a 24/7 shoppable storefront window display in NewYork that utilizes
QR codes (Kats, 2011).
The audio search technology provided by Shazam, meanwhile, allows market-
ers to “magically” send TV audiences to special mobile microsites based on
audio recognition tools (Hockenson, 2012). And locative technologies such as
geo- fencing allow retailers to define a specific geographic area surrounding
their store within which customers receive push notifications for promotions
via apps or text messages (Burby, 2012).
Retailers are also trying to anticipate consumers’ purchasing needs from with-
in social media and tablets. CoffeeTable is an iPad app that compiles multiple
retail catalogues and adds an e-commerce option.This allows customers to
not only browse, but also purchase products at their convenience.
As these and other options emerge, retailers are being careful to integrate new
channels with existing approaches in order to provide a seamless customer
experience. Since customers shop by brand, not channel, retailers can no
longer segment brick-and-mortar and online operations if they wish to avoid
redundancies and conflicts of interest. Merging channels makes it possible
to offer a more unified brand message, a more seamless shopping experience
and a more consistent approach to assortment, pricing and promotions.
Best Buy Canada, for example, is opening two new pilot stores in the Fall
of 2012 with only 5,000 square feet of retail (instead of the average 32,000
square feet) (Wexler, 2012). Every aisle will include a tablet that allows
customers to view and order from Best Buy’s complete inventory for a given
product category (Wexler 2012). UK retailer Marks and Spencer has also
been aggressively pursuing an omni-channel shopping strategy with a unique
store format that recently debuted in Cheshire, England (Wood, 2012).The
new location connects the in-store and online shopping experience through
free Wi-Fi, iPad-equipped sales assistants that can access additional inventory
and giant touchscreen kiosks that allow customers to browse and order online
items (Wood, 2012).
This shift in approach has been described as “omni-channel retail” and will
require merging disparate channels that include websites, mobile devices,
gaming consoles and physical stores (Rigby, 2011). For example, embedded
RFID tags are being used in some New Balance stores to trigger additional
product information through a video display when customers place the
sneaker on a hotspot (Swedberg, 2012).The move toward omni-channel re-
tail also includes aligning in- store and online operations through “buy online
“Historically, Canadian retail
investment in technology has
involved a relatively long
cycle. The trouble today is
that the technology in the
consumer’s hands is better
[than the retailer’s] and it’s
refreshing faster.”
Joe Jackman,
CEO of Joe Jackman Brand Inc.
Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 10
1 2 54 63Trend
pickup in-store”; “buy online return in-store” and “buy in-store ship to home
options.” Canadian retailers have been slower to adapt to such innovations as
compared with their U.S. counterparts.
Increased retail integration requires an ability to provide equivalent levels of
customer experience in-store and online. For example, online retailers are
trying to ensure that customers have access to 360-degree product views and
online video reviews to compensate for the lack of tactility (Charlton, 2010).
At the same time, retailers are trying to develop integrated CRM perspectives
that generate a 360-degree view of their customers, including cross-channel
order histories. However, most retailers are still encountering difficulties inte-
grating customer data across all channels, as they lack a sophisticated master
data management system (IBM, n.d.).Without investing in appropriate
infrastructure, customer information tends to get “trapped” within complex
information systems that include business performance metrics, in-store and
online transaction data, promotional data and social media listening and
trend data.
The challenge for Canadian and U.S. retailers is to provide a seamless retail
experience through consistent brand experiences amidst increasing complex-
ity and customer expectations, regardless of the touch point. Omni-channel
retail requires a significant investment in infrastructure and training, which
can be a major barrier to entry.This approach to retail also necessitates a will-
ingness to bridge e-commerce operations with physical retailing through the
use of cross- functional teams with both digital and in-store expertise.This
will allow retailers to eliminate the current silo-based approach that devel-
oped before and after the dot-com crash of March 2000 (Rigby, 2011).
“Are bricks and mortar dead?
No. But people want choice.”
Joanna Track,
Founder & CEO of eLUXE
Have you considered adding an extended aisle or virtual
backroom functionality to your retail operation so that
in-store and online customers enjoy a wider range of
products? Is your brand voice connected and consistent
across all channels? Can your customers purchase an item
directly from your bus shelter ad by simply taking a photo
of it?
FORWARD THINKING
Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 11
Trend
The New Geography of Merchandising
1 2 53 64
4
Trend
The erasure of borders that e-commerce makes possible means that retailers can
theoretically sell their products to anyone, anywhere in the world.The reality is more
complicated however, and geography continues to assert its influence on merchan-
dising strategies in both obvious and subtle ways.
Despite their proximity to the United States, many Canadians have been disap-
pointed to discover that online retailers such as West Elm are unable to sell and ship
specific products to Canada (Williams-Sonoma Inc., 2012).This is especially confus-
ing since both companies have physical stores located in Canada.
Along with a more limited product selection, Canadians face higher prices for the
same merchandise as compared with the U.S., which can range anywhere from 10
to 50 percent (Beltrame, 2012).This price gap has become more noticeable over
the last decade thanks to an influx of U.S. retail chains arriving in Canada.Within
a week of opening their first store in Canada in August, 2011, J. Crew had to adjust
their shipping fees and lower their online prices through the elimination of duty fees
after The Globe and Mail reported significant price disparities between the U.S. and
Canadian versions of the website (Strauss, 2011).
Technology has made the price gap between the U.S. and Canada nearly transparent,
and helps to explain the rise of cross-border shopping through both online orders
and physical trips to U.S. destinations (Strauss & Grant, 2012). Black Friday, for
example, has now become a more popular Google search term than Boxing Day in
Canada (Oliveira, 2011).
Within their own borders, national retailers in Canada and the U.S. are carefully
considering geography in order to localize their in-store product assortment and
reflect the needs of regional customers. By offering products based on seasonal
weather patterns and region-specific cultural preferences, retailers are better able to
serve their local markets and manage their overall inventory (Schouten, 2010; Deale,
2012).The same cannot be said for e-commerce retailers, although this is slowly
changing. Columbia Sportswear has recently begun initiatives to localize site messag-
ing, product assortment, pricing and promotions (Florletta, 2012).
As a Canadian retailer, how are you preparing to compete
with the wide online product assortment and streamlined
cross-border shipping policies of large American retailers,
such as Nordstrom and Bloomingdales? Have you consid-
ered fortifying your online presence with robust e-com-
merce operations? How might you compete on uniquely
branded customer experiences instead of price?
FORWARD THINKING
Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 12
Trend
I’ll Trade my Privacy for a $5 Coupon
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5
Trend
Many consumers have developed complicated math in order to maximize
their return on loyalty programs such as Best Buy’s Reward Zone, Shoppers
Optimum, Safeway’s Club Card and AIR MILES (LoyaltyOne Inc.).The sav-
ings and rewards these programs offer aren’t technically free however, as they
cost consumers some of their privacy.
Canadian and U.S. retailers, meanwhile, are also finding it necessary to
develop complicated math to cope with the era of “big data.” An increasing
number of retailers are focusing on data collection and analysis in order to
more effectively personalize their marketing appeals and strengthen customer
loyalty in the process.Target, for example, is now able to offer relevant cou-
pons to women in the early stages of their pregnancy based on their purchas-
ing habits (Duhigg, 2012).
While many customers appreciate this type of personalization, they may also
feel that the information security practices of these companies are murky. In
most cases, privacy is no longer a default option, but something that must be
configured by consumers.
Despite some negative associations regarding corporate approaches to priva-
cy, consumers remain quite willing to gamble with their personal information
if they believe there is a clear benefit in doing so. For example, a November
2011 survey found that nearly two-thirds of consumers do not trust online
companies such as Facebook or Google with their personal information
(eMarketer, 2012).
Despite this skepticism, the value that consumers receive from these same
companies is high enough to overlook or ignore issues of trust.The popularity
and growth in Facebook usage may be due in part to a human desire for com-
munity belonging. Social media also allows people to satisfy their personal
curiosity about the lives of friends and family.
As the importance of lifestyle marketing continues to grow, Canadian and
U.S. retailers will need to rethink critical aspects of data collection and pri-
vacy policies in order to generate relevant and targeted marketing campaigns.
One approach to privacy is to better reward customers for the data they
provide or offer a higher degree of transparency about how their consumer
data will be used.
“People are smarter than we
give them credit for. They will
give up their personal infor-
mation, but only if they get
something in return.”
Dr. Paul Marsden,
Editor of Social Commerce Today
Want to gain access to the private habits of influential
customers? Be prepared to openly barter for this
information.
FORWARD THINKING
Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 13
Trend
Sophisticated Frugality
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Trend
The coupon made its debut in the late 1880s, and the basic idea behind it
has changed very little in the intervening 120 years.While saving money
will probably never go out of style, it is surprising that many successful new
technologies and services are being used to deliver coupons, bulk discounts,
auctions and other timeless pricing tactics.
At the same time, the dynamic pricing made possible by current CRM
systems means that retailers can offer promotions that reward and enhance
loyalty, as these offers are based on a customer’s purchasing history. Getting
customers to look beyond simple price reductions requires a long-term edu-
cation strategy, as demonstrated by the difficulties encountered with JCPen-
ney’s recent Everyday Low Price Strategy (Mohammed, 2012).
Retailers must continue to experiment with new discount options and the
best way to deliver these deals. SavingStar, for example, is a mobile app that
generates coupons based on a customer’s cluster of loyalty card information.
Discounts are applied automatically at the point of sale via the loyalty card
(Van Grove, 2011). Decide helps consumers predict the best time to purchase
major appliances based on historical discount data, and recently added a
Consumer Reports style recommendation component. Groupon, meanwhile,
has made bulk purchasing a popular option for retailers who want to reach
new customers. Its success has inspired a host of competitors including Team-
Buy (Buyers Unite Inc.), LivingSocial and AllDailyDeals.
Consumers have also become more vocal about product pricing due to the
popularity of social media.The result of this trend are co-buying sites such as
Buyapowa, where the price of a specific product drops based on the number
of confirmed purchasers, and Netotiate, a site that allows consumers to name
their price for a wide range of consumer goods.
Sophisticated frugality refers not only to the use of technology-enabled
discounts, but merchandising strategies that developed in response to the
economic downturn of 2008.This has included a focus on developing more
robust lines of private label products. (Nielsen Wire, 2010).The ability of
retailers to develop private label products that can compete on both quality
and value has helped encourage the recent emergence of luxury private labels.
Examples include Loblaw’s PC Black Label, launched in October 2011
(Scott-Thomas, 2012); Duane Reade’s DR Delish launched in April 2010
(The Dieline, 2010); and Walmart’s Our Finest, launched in November 2011
(Kwon, 2011).
“The ability to compare value
instantly via mobile has
created an amplification of
comparison. It has real impact
on sales and the brand
relationship.”
Joe Jackman,
CEO of Joe Jackman Brand Inc.
Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 14
1 32 4 5 6Trend
The growing importance of private labels is reflected in the fact that both IBM
(“Consumer-Centric Analytics:The Foundation for Competitive Advantage,”
Waldron, 2011) and Accenture (“The Waiting is Over:Why Retailers Have to get
Better at Private Label now,” 2011) have conducted extensive research into this
increasingly critical aspect of retail merchandising.
Canadian and U.S. retailers considering a discount strategy need to decide whether
they want to pursue a price-based strategy over a brand-driven approach (or vice-
versa). However, dynamic pricing and an inventive mix of private label products can
help retailers split the difference between value and brand approaches. Brands also
have an opportunity to reframe what frugality means by recognizing that consumers
may prefer to be smart with their money, rather than simply being cheap.
Are you ready to think beyond the coupon? Are you will-
ing to barter with customers who expect to be able to
name their own price for your products? How might a line
of luxury private label products reinforce or augment the
key strengths of your retail brand?
FORWARD THINKING
Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 15
What’s Next
Methodology
Our next report will look at retail trends through the lens of business models, fol-
lowed by transactions and payments, analytics, and emerging technology platforms.
Once these trend reports are complete, we will move to the next phase of strategic
foresight: identifying the driving forces underlying the trends.Those driving forces
will inform future scenarios, leading to the last phases in this strategic foresight ini-
tiative to articulate the future of B2C retail and commerce.
For more information, you can follow the project on Nurun’s blog, Digital for Real
Life. If you have any questions, or want to receive an email reminder when our next
trend report is published, please contact
futureofretail@nurun.com.
The Nurun Strategic Foresight team performed a horizon scan using the “STEEPV”
framework to locate current and emerging trends and signals in the following areas:
Social,Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Cultural Values.This
scan generated over 100 relevant trends.
These signals and trends were then clustered and sorted into six overarching trends.
Each of these overarching trends required the support of three to five strong signals
or examples. Some trends had an excess of signals—in those cases, excess signals
were catalogued for future inclusion or consideration.
Sincere thanks to the merchandising and marketing experts who graciously shared
their insights with us for this report:
Joe Jackman
CEO of Joe Jackman Brand Inc
Joe leads a 60-person multi-discipline team of ‘retail reinventionists’—researchers,
analysts, management consultants, marketers, creative directors, writers, designers
and activation managers—focused on accelerating value creation and disrupting the
status quo. Joe Jackman Brand is the first company to combine in-depth analytics
and strategy with creative vision, design, marketing, and the hands-on shaping of all
touch points of customer experience.
Dr. Paul Marsden
Editor of Social CommerceToday
Paul is a social psychologist and market researcher specializing in digital and social
media, influencer marketing and reputation management. He works with brands and
organizations to develop effective digital marketing and PR strategies.
Joanna Track
Founder & CEO of eLUXE
Joanna has over 15 years experience in marketing, business strategy, branding and
advertising. In 2004 she started Sweetspot, the ultimate destination for Canadian
women to stay in the know about what’s new and fabulous in their city. In 2011 she
founded eLUXE, Canada’s online shopping destination, offering the best edit of
global contemporary brands through engaging consumable content.
The Nurun Strategic Foresight team will continue to monitor and collect new
developments in marketing and merchandising to inform subsequent strategic
foresight work, especially scenario development.
Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 16
About Nurun
Nurun is a global design and technology consultancy that works with some of the
world’s most innovative companies.We create products and services for the
connected world through a combination of human insight, new technology and
smart thinking. Clients include Adidas, BBVA, Bouygues Telecom, Coca-Cola,
Electronic Arts, General Electric, Google,The Home Depot,Tesla Motors, Sony
and Walmart. Headquartered in Montréal and with 12 offices across North America,
Europe, and Asia, Nurun has multidisciplinary teams of more than 1,200
anthropologists, designers, strategists and software engineers. Nurun is a wholly
owned subsidiary of Québecor Média Inc., one of Canada’s largest tele-
communications and media providers.
Meet the Nurun Strategic Foresight Team
Ryan Bigge
As a Content Strategist at Nurun, Ryan Bigge combines over 12
years of experience
as a freelance journalist with a passion for design thinking and interactive art. His
writing has been published in the NewYork Times Magazine, Report on Business
and the Toronto Star. Ryan recently spoke at SXSW Interactive about analog
souvenirs and physidigital trends.
Jen Chow
As Nurun’s Design Strategist, Jen utilizes a diverse set of consumer research
techniques to uncover insights and shape new opportunities for various retail clients.
Jen recently co-authored a report on the future of consumer-to-business payments
that focused on the Canadian banking industry as part of her work in OCAD
University’s Master of Design Foresight & Innovation program. Jen’s work fuses her
eclectic background in accounting and finance with her keen interest in sociocultural
trends and technology.
Kira Levine
As Senior Retail Strategist at Nurun, Kira’s focus is on translating consumer needs
into viable retail solutions, bridging both in-store and online capabilities.
She brings
a unique blend of passion for retail with over nine years of experience in category
and product management. She holds a Bachelor’s degree in Retail Management and
an International MBA.
Audrey Carr
As Vice President, Strategy, Audrey guides Nurun’s cross-functional teams in
identifying, framing and solving customer-centric opportunities across
our omni-
channel retail clients, including Sears Canada,The Home Depot Canada, Acklands-
Grainger and the LCBO. She also leads the development and evolution of Nurun
Toronto’s strategic capabilities in design research, design & retail strategy, analytics
and interaction design.
Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 17
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The Future of Retail - Marketing and Merchandising Trend Report

  • 1. The Future of Retail September 2012 | Marketing and Merchandising
  • 2. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 2 Manage the ambiguous future with strategic foresight Daily blog posts. Monthly magazines. Quarterly trend reports. Must-read books. Anyone who works at the intersection of technology and people is swimming in information.This data smog can make deciphering the implications of the latest tech and social developments difficult. One solution is strategic foresight, which can help you make sense of emerging trends and clearly evaluate your options for the future. It’s a tool to manage risk when facing ambiguity in the marketplace. Strategic foresight doesn’t predict the future, but it does help prepare you for it by envisioning a number of different, yet possible, future states in the market landscape 10+ years from now.These future states are often described as a set of scenarios, and they emerge from an analysis of current trends. So, as a simple example, the increasing popularity of pop-up retail spaces, combined with the high adoption of mobile devices, could develop into a future filled with transient storefronts.This scenario would be made possible due to the minimal wired infrastructure required for information and payment. The rapid uptake of technology means that our social lives, cultural experiences, policies, regulations, ecological landscape, and business models are increasingly intertwined.Through its very design, strategic foresight is built to accommodate complexity by considering trends from a multi-dimensional perspective. Steps of strategic foresight Trend scan Identify trend drivers Evaluate critical uncertainties Future scenarios Strategic implications Action plan Monitor trends 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
  • 3. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 3 Why Retail Foresight? The Nurun Strategic Foresight team has launched a strategic foresight initiative to articulate the future of business-to-consumer (“B2C”) retail and commerce, and explore implications for Canadian and U.S. retailers.The scenarios we generate will give our retail clients the toolkit necessary to start imagining (and preparing for) the possible futures in the marketplace. The first of seven steps in the strategic foresight process involves trend scanning.The trends we capture will be published as a series of trend reports that focus on five domains of importance to both online and omni-channel retailers. This is the first of five trend reports, and it looks at retail through the lens of marketing and merchandising. Next will be a report on business models, followed by transactions and payments, analytics, and emerging technology platforms.The culmination of trend scanning and subsequent phases will inform future scenarios in our final stratgic foresight report. For more information, you can follow the project on Nurun’s blog, Digital for Real Life or subscribe to our email list, futureofretail@nurun.com. Steps of strategic foresight Trend scan Identify trend drivers Evaluate critical uncertainties Future scenarios Strategic implications Action plan Monitor trends Marketing and Merchandising Business Models Transactions & Payments Analytics Emerging Technology Platforms Preparing for the Future of Retail: A Strategic Foresight Report 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
  • 4. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 4 Introduction Over the last five years, new forms of technology have radically altered, augmented and disrupted how Canadian and U.S. retailers approach many fundamental aspects of their business. New devices such as tablets and smartphones, along with an explosion of social media channels, have meant that retailers are able to market and merchandise their products in a number of novel ways.Technology is both a blessing and curse, however, as it has introduced new competitive pressures. It has also significantly altered buying behavior, forcing retailers to react and adapt to a smarter and more informed consumer. Retailers continue to struggle with the fact that consumers are taking advantage of new technologies to locate, research and compare products, thanks to a trend toward Social Product Discovery, Consideration and Evaluation. In order to better attract and entertain their customers, retailers have started to take inspiration from film and print magazines in a trend of Product Placement Morphs Into Content + Commerce. Retailers also need to make sure they reach customers wherever they are, seamlessly integrating and supporting the shopping experience across multiple channels.This might mean creating digital catalogues for the iPad so customers can browse and purchase products directly from their tablet, or allowing customers to order laundry detergent through a smartphone app that can scan items on a wall poster thanks to The Integrated Expansion of the Omni-Channel Storefront trend. U.S and Canadian retailers are also trying to reconcile the promises of The New Geography of Merchandising trend with the reality that e-commerce is not yet borderless. Duties, shipping fees and supplier markup have meant significantly higher prices for Canadians who wish to buy products from U.S. retailers, be it in-store or online. New e-commerce developments, while providing many benefits for both consumers and retailers, can come at a personal cost, as the I’ll Trade my Privacy for a $5 Coupon trend demonstrates. Retailers are reacting in very different ways to the shifts in how consumer data is being collected and utilized. Some aspects of retail remain constant, however. Emerging technologies are being used by retailers to deliver century-old marketing and merchandising strategies like coupons, while bulk discounts and private labeling have new- Defining Our Terms “You have to be really agile and flexible in how you deliver information to people and give them choices. There was a time years ago when retailers and packaged goods companies dictated what consumers could have. Now it’s the other way around.” Joanna Track, Founder and CEO of eLUXE Given our expertise in the realm of digital retail, we defined retail marketing to include: • Product findability and discoverability • Recommendation and comparison tools • Social commerce • Issues relating to consumer privacy Our examination of merchandising trends focused on: • Pricing • Localization of assortment • Product presentation
  • 5. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 5 found relevance, as demonstrated by the Sophisticated Frugality trend. Canadian and U.S. retailers will need to contend with these trends if they wish to remain successful in the coming decade.This report offers a thought- provoking look at each of the six key trends mentioned above, along with a series of provocative questions that relate to each trend. A complete strategic foresight report that incorporates these six marketing and mer- chandising trends, along with key retail trends relating to business models, value ex- change, analytics and emerging technology platforms, will be released in early 2013. Social Product Discovery, Consideration and Evaluation Product Placement Morphs Into Content + Commerce The Integrated Expansion of the Omni-Channel Storefront The New Geography of Merchandising I’ll Trade my Privacy for a $5 Coupon Sophisticated Frugality The Nurun Strategic Foresight team found six key trends relating to marketing and merchandising: 1 2 3 4 5 6
  • 6. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 6 Trend Social Product Discovery, Consideration and Evaluation 1 3 54 62 1 Trend Want to find the perfect gift for a friend’s birthday? Rather than taking your best guess as you wander around a local mall, you can now utilize your friend’s Facebook data to generate a more relevant list of suggestions.That’s the premise of a mobile app called Karma, which helps people discover, consider and evaluate products and services for purchase.Through Facebook integration, Karma is able to send out birthday reminders for close friends and provide personalized gift ideas. Karma, along with other social discovery and recommendation sites such as LYST, Glimpse, and Curisma, speak to a consumer desire for social approval and belonging. At the same time, a number of visual discovery tools have emerged to make the process of online browsing more efficient and visually pleasing. Many of these tools borrow inspiration from Pinterest, an image sharing website that allows users to pin their favourite images onto unique digital boards. Fancy, for example, is an online store that combines elements of blogs and magazines with a wish list function, while Polyvore encourages users to act like magazine editors and curate collections of their favourite fashion finds. Sites like Lockerz, meanwhile, allow customers to act as brand ambassadors, a function traditionally performed by celebrity endorsements. A March 2012, Bizrate Insights Online Consumer Pulse report found that 32 percent of online consumers have purchased a product after seeing it on a social image sharing site such as Pinterest, Juxtapost, Discoveredd, Fancy or Polyvore. (Silver,Tan, & Mitchell, 2012).These sites tap into the long- standing popularity of in-store window-shopping, but eliminate the need for consumers to visit multiple websites in order to recreate the same experience online. For Canadian and U.S. retailers, this trend presents an opportunity to move beyond the use of on-site dynamic product recommendation and merchan- dising tools, such as Certona, RichRelevance, and PredictiveIntent. Some retailers are starting to offer personalized assortments and storefronts, including Amazon’s “My Store,” (Amazon.com, Inc., 2012).While these tools are frequently used to boost online conversion, they can alienate privacy- conscious customers when used improperly, as discovered by omni-channel retailer Urban Outfitters (Singer, 2012). In the same way, retailers are work- ing to find the right approach to retargeting and remarketing, two techniques that involve displaying online ads for products from websites consumers have recently visited (Hof, 2012). “Collective consumers have great power. Communities now form around dissatisfac- tion and they instantly scale and become really influential and powerful. And they often appear out of the vapor.” Joe Jackman, CEO of Joe Jackman Brand Inc. “The big challenge is to strip away the marketing hype and spin and find the commercial utility in word-of-mouth re- ferrals. A friend recommend- ing to a friend is still one of the most powerful sales driv- ers. But getting beyond the technobabble can be tough.” Dr. Paul Marsden, Editor of Social Commerce Today
  • 7. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 7 1 3 54 62Trend Meanwhile, social discovery and recommendation sites such as Krush (Walker, 2012) and retailers such as Modcloth (Amed & Company, 2012) are collecting customer product preferences and post-purchase feedback.This data is then used to create new products and better respond to shifts in supply and demand for exist- ing items. Clothing company Betabrand has gone so far as to encourage customers to submit new clothing ideas for community consideration (Kavilanz, 2011).These user-submitted ideas are then turned into new Betabrand products if sufficient consumer interest exists (Kavilanz, 2011). Looking ahead, retailers should stop viewing their online catalogues as walled- gardens and look for ways to attract new customers by showcasing a curated selection of products across a variety of niche social discovery sites. Otherwise, visual discovery tools might augment their e-commerce capabilities, leading to increased retail competition. Retailers also need to treat customer feedback as a source of future product innovation and incorporate this feedback into their merchandising analytics so they can be more nimble in adjusting their catalogue assortments. Are you ready to distribute your products not only through your own e-commerce site, but also Pinterest and Fancy? Are you prepared to let your customers make suggestions for new products? Would you be willing to put “talking” price tags on your in-store merchandise so that customers could instantly connect to an external social recommendation tool through their smartphones? FORWARD THINKING
  • 8. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 8 Trend Product Placement Morphs Into Content + Commerce 1 3 54 62 2 Trend The print magazine industry has struggled to stay relevant over the last decade as consumers turn to blogs such as Fashionista, Gizmodo, and ApartmentTherapy as their preferred source of information about new products. At the same, retailers are starting to realize that engaging lifestyle content integrated within an e-commerce environment can be a very compelling method of speaking to consumers.The mixture of content and commerce also provides new opportunities for creative merchandising approaches, visual narratives and brand curation. This helps to explain why the humble email newsletter remains a viable way to market new products, used by companies as varied as the Gilt Groupe and Sephora. Some retailers, including Zappos, publish a monthly magazine of original content to promote their products and reinforce their overall brand image. Meanwhile, online luxury retailers including eLUXE, MR PORTER, and IWC provide specific fashion and lifestyle advice alongside their products. This advice resembles the how-to style guides found in legacy print publications such as Vogue or Esquire, but their e-commerce platforms allow for a more seamless and rapid process of discovery and purchase.This type of approach represents the latest evolution of the advertorial. More sophisticated versions of this trend involve shoppable online videos. By embedding their clothing line within a music video, SSENSE was able to put a fresh spin on the traditional fashion catalogue (FKi, Azalea, Diplo, 2012). This video served to demonstrate products in a relevant lifestyle context and entertained younger consumers who may be tired of traditional marketing approaches. In the same way, short films created and produced by companies such as BMW and Chanel showcases sophisticated narratives with brand and product integration. A recent example is Karl Lagerfeld’s multi-part branded film The Tale of a Fairy (2012). In many cases, Canadian and U.S. retailers can take advantage of existing content (blog posts, online video) to generate newsletters or produce magazine-like experiences on their websites. A successful blend of content and commerce might require retailers to think like a publisher and develop an editorial calendar so that fresh, engaging content can be created and published on a regular schedule. “Collective consumers have great power. Communities now form around dissatisfac- tion and they instantly scale and become really influential and powerful. And they often appear out of the vapor.” Joe Jackman, CEO of Joe Jackman Brand Inc. Is your company ready to hire editorial staff in order to create a retail catalogue that leads with editorial and offers embedded e-commerce options, indistinguishable from a content-rich online magazine? Is your brand robust enough to create captivating stories? FORWARD THINKING
  • 9. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 9 Trend The Integrated Expansion of the Omni-Channel Storefront 1 2 54 63 3 Trend Mobile technology makes it possible to offer time-strapped consumers the convenience of purchasing products from almost anywhere. In response, a number of unique sales channels have emerged, including QR code enabled virtual storefronts. Canadian online retailer Well.ca used the public walls of a transit corridor to display photos of dozens of products that consumers could purchase by pointing at specific items with a smartphone app. eBay has also created a 24/7 shoppable storefront window display in NewYork that utilizes QR codes (Kats, 2011). The audio search technology provided by Shazam, meanwhile, allows market- ers to “magically” send TV audiences to special mobile microsites based on audio recognition tools (Hockenson, 2012). And locative technologies such as geo- fencing allow retailers to define a specific geographic area surrounding their store within which customers receive push notifications for promotions via apps or text messages (Burby, 2012). Retailers are also trying to anticipate consumers’ purchasing needs from with- in social media and tablets. CoffeeTable is an iPad app that compiles multiple retail catalogues and adds an e-commerce option.This allows customers to not only browse, but also purchase products at their convenience. As these and other options emerge, retailers are being careful to integrate new channels with existing approaches in order to provide a seamless customer experience. Since customers shop by brand, not channel, retailers can no longer segment brick-and-mortar and online operations if they wish to avoid redundancies and conflicts of interest. Merging channels makes it possible to offer a more unified brand message, a more seamless shopping experience and a more consistent approach to assortment, pricing and promotions. Best Buy Canada, for example, is opening two new pilot stores in the Fall of 2012 with only 5,000 square feet of retail (instead of the average 32,000 square feet) (Wexler, 2012). Every aisle will include a tablet that allows customers to view and order from Best Buy’s complete inventory for a given product category (Wexler 2012). UK retailer Marks and Spencer has also been aggressively pursuing an omni-channel shopping strategy with a unique store format that recently debuted in Cheshire, England (Wood, 2012).The new location connects the in-store and online shopping experience through free Wi-Fi, iPad-equipped sales assistants that can access additional inventory and giant touchscreen kiosks that allow customers to browse and order online items (Wood, 2012). This shift in approach has been described as “omni-channel retail” and will require merging disparate channels that include websites, mobile devices, gaming consoles and physical stores (Rigby, 2011). For example, embedded RFID tags are being used in some New Balance stores to trigger additional product information through a video display when customers place the sneaker on a hotspot (Swedberg, 2012).The move toward omni-channel re- tail also includes aligning in- store and online operations through “buy online “Historically, Canadian retail investment in technology has involved a relatively long cycle. The trouble today is that the technology in the consumer’s hands is better [than the retailer’s] and it’s refreshing faster.” Joe Jackman, CEO of Joe Jackman Brand Inc.
  • 10. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 10 1 2 54 63Trend pickup in-store”; “buy online return in-store” and “buy in-store ship to home options.” Canadian retailers have been slower to adapt to such innovations as compared with their U.S. counterparts. Increased retail integration requires an ability to provide equivalent levels of customer experience in-store and online. For example, online retailers are trying to ensure that customers have access to 360-degree product views and online video reviews to compensate for the lack of tactility (Charlton, 2010). At the same time, retailers are trying to develop integrated CRM perspectives that generate a 360-degree view of their customers, including cross-channel order histories. However, most retailers are still encountering difficulties inte- grating customer data across all channels, as they lack a sophisticated master data management system (IBM, n.d.).Without investing in appropriate infrastructure, customer information tends to get “trapped” within complex information systems that include business performance metrics, in-store and online transaction data, promotional data and social media listening and trend data. The challenge for Canadian and U.S. retailers is to provide a seamless retail experience through consistent brand experiences amidst increasing complex- ity and customer expectations, regardless of the touch point. Omni-channel retail requires a significant investment in infrastructure and training, which can be a major barrier to entry.This approach to retail also necessitates a will- ingness to bridge e-commerce operations with physical retailing through the use of cross- functional teams with both digital and in-store expertise.This will allow retailers to eliminate the current silo-based approach that devel- oped before and after the dot-com crash of March 2000 (Rigby, 2011). “Are bricks and mortar dead? No. But people want choice.” Joanna Track, Founder & CEO of eLUXE Have you considered adding an extended aisle or virtual backroom functionality to your retail operation so that in-store and online customers enjoy a wider range of products? Is your brand voice connected and consistent across all channels? Can your customers purchase an item directly from your bus shelter ad by simply taking a photo of it? FORWARD THINKING
  • 11. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 11 Trend The New Geography of Merchandising 1 2 53 64 4 Trend The erasure of borders that e-commerce makes possible means that retailers can theoretically sell their products to anyone, anywhere in the world.The reality is more complicated however, and geography continues to assert its influence on merchan- dising strategies in both obvious and subtle ways. Despite their proximity to the United States, many Canadians have been disap- pointed to discover that online retailers such as West Elm are unable to sell and ship specific products to Canada (Williams-Sonoma Inc., 2012).This is especially confus- ing since both companies have physical stores located in Canada. Along with a more limited product selection, Canadians face higher prices for the same merchandise as compared with the U.S., which can range anywhere from 10 to 50 percent (Beltrame, 2012).This price gap has become more noticeable over the last decade thanks to an influx of U.S. retail chains arriving in Canada.Within a week of opening their first store in Canada in August, 2011, J. Crew had to adjust their shipping fees and lower their online prices through the elimination of duty fees after The Globe and Mail reported significant price disparities between the U.S. and Canadian versions of the website (Strauss, 2011). Technology has made the price gap between the U.S. and Canada nearly transparent, and helps to explain the rise of cross-border shopping through both online orders and physical trips to U.S. destinations (Strauss & Grant, 2012). Black Friday, for example, has now become a more popular Google search term than Boxing Day in Canada (Oliveira, 2011). Within their own borders, national retailers in Canada and the U.S. are carefully considering geography in order to localize their in-store product assortment and reflect the needs of regional customers. By offering products based on seasonal weather patterns and region-specific cultural preferences, retailers are better able to serve their local markets and manage their overall inventory (Schouten, 2010; Deale, 2012).The same cannot be said for e-commerce retailers, although this is slowly changing. Columbia Sportswear has recently begun initiatives to localize site messag- ing, product assortment, pricing and promotions (Florletta, 2012). As a Canadian retailer, how are you preparing to compete with the wide online product assortment and streamlined cross-border shipping policies of large American retailers, such as Nordstrom and Bloomingdales? Have you consid- ered fortifying your online presence with robust e-com- merce operations? How might you compete on uniquely branded customer experiences instead of price? FORWARD THINKING
  • 12. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 12 Trend I’ll Trade my Privacy for a $5 Coupon 1 32 4 65 5 Trend Many consumers have developed complicated math in order to maximize their return on loyalty programs such as Best Buy’s Reward Zone, Shoppers Optimum, Safeway’s Club Card and AIR MILES (LoyaltyOne Inc.).The sav- ings and rewards these programs offer aren’t technically free however, as they cost consumers some of their privacy. Canadian and U.S. retailers, meanwhile, are also finding it necessary to develop complicated math to cope with the era of “big data.” An increasing number of retailers are focusing on data collection and analysis in order to more effectively personalize their marketing appeals and strengthen customer loyalty in the process.Target, for example, is now able to offer relevant cou- pons to women in the early stages of their pregnancy based on their purchas- ing habits (Duhigg, 2012). While many customers appreciate this type of personalization, they may also feel that the information security practices of these companies are murky. In most cases, privacy is no longer a default option, but something that must be configured by consumers. Despite some negative associations regarding corporate approaches to priva- cy, consumers remain quite willing to gamble with their personal information if they believe there is a clear benefit in doing so. For example, a November 2011 survey found that nearly two-thirds of consumers do not trust online companies such as Facebook or Google with their personal information (eMarketer, 2012). Despite this skepticism, the value that consumers receive from these same companies is high enough to overlook or ignore issues of trust.The popularity and growth in Facebook usage may be due in part to a human desire for com- munity belonging. Social media also allows people to satisfy their personal curiosity about the lives of friends and family. As the importance of lifestyle marketing continues to grow, Canadian and U.S. retailers will need to rethink critical aspects of data collection and pri- vacy policies in order to generate relevant and targeted marketing campaigns. One approach to privacy is to better reward customers for the data they provide or offer a higher degree of transparency about how their consumer data will be used. “People are smarter than we give them credit for. They will give up their personal infor- mation, but only if they get something in return.” Dr. Paul Marsden, Editor of Social Commerce Today Want to gain access to the private habits of influential customers? Be prepared to openly barter for this information. FORWARD THINKING
  • 13. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 13 Trend Sophisticated Frugality 1 32 4 5 6 6 Trend The coupon made its debut in the late 1880s, and the basic idea behind it has changed very little in the intervening 120 years.While saving money will probably never go out of style, it is surprising that many successful new technologies and services are being used to deliver coupons, bulk discounts, auctions and other timeless pricing tactics. At the same time, the dynamic pricing made possible by current CRM systems means that retailers can offer promotions that reward and enhance loyalty, as these offers are based on a customer’s purchasing history. Getting customers to look beyond simple price reductions requires a long-term edu- cation strategy, as demonstrated by the difficulties encountered with JCPen- ney’s recent Everyday Low Price Strategy (Mohammed, 2012). Retailers must continue to experiment with new discount options and the best way to deliver these deals. SavingStar, for example, is a mobile app that generates coupons based on a customer’s cluster of loyalty card information. Discounts are applied automatically at the point of sale via the loyalty card (Van Grove, 2011). Decide helps consumers predict the best time to purchase major appliances based on historical discount data, and recently added a Consumer Reports style recommendation component. Groupon, meanwhile, has made bulk purchasing a popular option for retailers who want to reach new customers. Its success has inspired a host of competitors including Team- Buy (Buyers Unite Inc.), LivingSocial and AllDailyDeals. Consumers have also become more vocal about product pricing due to the popularity of social media.The result of this trend are co-buying sites such as Buyapowa, where the price of a specific product drops based on the number of confirmed purchasers, and Netotiate, a site that allows consumers to name their price for a wide range of consumer goods. Sophisticated frugality refers not only to the use of technology-enabled discounts, but merchandising strategies that developed in response to the economic downturn of 2008.This has included a focus on developing more robust lines of private label products. (Nielsen Wire, 2010).The ability of retailers to develop private label products that can compete on both quality and value has helped encourage the recent emergence of luxury private labels. Examples include Loblaw’s PC Black Label, launched in October 2011 (Scott-Thomas, 2012); Duane Reade’s DR Delish launched in April 2010 (The Dieline, 2010); and Walmart’s Our Finest, launched in November 2011 (Kwon, 2011). “The ability to compare value instantly via mobile has created an amplification of comparison. It has real impact on sales and the brand relationship.” Joe Jackman, CEO of Joe Jackman Brand Inc.
  • 14. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 14 1 32 4 5 6Trend The growing importance of private labels is reflected in the fact that both IBM (“Consumer-Centric Analytics:The Foundation for Competitive Advantage,” Waldron, 2011) and Accenture (“The Waiting is Over:Why Retailers Have to get Better at Private Label now,” 2011) have conducted extensive research into this increasingly critical aspect of retail merchandising. Canadian and U.S. retailers considering a discount strategy need to decide whether they want to pursue a price-based strategy over a brand-driven approach (or vice- versa). However, dynamic pricing and an inventive mix of private label products can help retailers split the difference between value and brand approaches. Brands also have an opportunity to reframe what frugality means by recognizing that consumers may prefer to be smart with their money, rather than simply being cheap. Are you ready to think beyond the coupon? Are you will- ing to barter with customers who expect to be able to name their own price for your products? How might a line of luxury private label products reinforce or augment the key strengths of your retail brand? FORWARD THINKING
  • 15. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 15 What’s Next Methodology Our next report will look at retail trends through the lens of business models, fol- lowed by transactions and payments, analytics, and emerging technology platforms. Once these trend reports are complete, we will move to the next phase of strategic foresight: identifying the driving forces underlying the trends.Those driving forces will inform future scenarios, leading to the last phases in this strategic foresight ini- tiative to articulate the future of B2C retail and commerce. For more information, you can follow the project on Nurun’s blog, Digital for Real Life. If you have any questions, or want to receive an email reminder when our next trend report is published, please contact futureofretail@nurun.com. The Nurun Strategic Foresight team performed a horizon scan using the “STEEPV” framework to locate current and emerging trends and signals in the following areas: Social,Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Cultural Values.This scan generated over 100 relevant trends. These signals and trends were then clustered and sorted into six overarching trends. Each of these overarching trends required the support of three to five strong signals or examples. Some trends had an excess of signals—in those cases, excess signals were catalogued for future inclusion or consideration. Sincere thanks to the merchandising and marketing experts who graciously shared their insights with us for this report: Joe Jackman CEO of Joe Jackman Brand Inc Joe leads a 60-person multi-discipline team of ‘retail reinventionists’—researchers, analysts, management consultants, marketers, creative directors, writers, designers and activation managers—focused on accelerating value creation and disrupting the status quo. Joe Jackman Brand is the first company to combine in-depth analytics and strategy with creative vision, design, marketing, and the hands-on shaping of all touch points of customer experience. Dr. Paul Marsden Editor of Social CommerceToday Paul is a social psychologist and market researcher specializing in digital and social media, influencer marketing and reputation management. He works with brands and organizations to develop effective digital marketing and PR strategies. Joanna Track Founder & CEO of eLUXE Joanna has over 15 years experience in marketing, business strategy, branding and advertising. In 2004 she started Sweetspot, the ultimate destination for Canadian women to stay in the know about what’s new and fabulous in their city. In 2011 she founded eLUXE, Canada’s online shopping destination, offering the best edit of global contemporary brands through engaging consumable content. The Nurun Strategic Foresight team will continue to monitor and collect new developments in marketing and merchandising to inform subsequent strategic foresight work, especially scenario development.
  • 16. Marketing and Merchandising | September 2012 16 About Nurun Nurun is a global design and technology consultancy that works with some of the world’s most innovative companies.We create products and services for the connected world through a combination of human insight, new technology and smart thinking. Clients include Adidas, BBVA, Bouygues Telecom, Coca-Cola, Electronic Arts, General Electric, Google,The Home Depot,Tesla Motors, Sony and Walmart. Headquartered in Montréal and with 12 offices across North America, Europe, and Asia, Nurun has multidisciplinary teams of more than 1,200 anthropologists, designers, strategists and software engineers. Nurun is a wholly owned subsidiary of Québecor Média Inc., one of Canada’s largest tele- communications and media providers. Meet the Nurun Strategic Foresight Team Ryan Bigge As a Content Strategist at Nurun, Ryan Bigge combines over 12
years of experience as a freelance journalist with a passion for design thinking and interactive art. His writing has been published in the NewYork Times Magazine, Report on Business and the Toronto Star. Ryan recently spoke at SXSW Interactive about analog souvenirs and physidigital trends. Jen Chow As Nurun’s Design Strategist, Jen utilizes a diverse set of consumer research techniques to uncover insights and shape new opportunities for various retail clients. Jen recently co-authored a report on the future of consumer-to-business payments that focused on the Canadian banking industry as part of her work in OCAD University’s Master of Design Foresight & Innovation program. Jen’s work fuses her eclectic background in accounting and finance with her keen interest in sociocultural trends and technology. Kira Levine As Senior Retail Strategist at Nurun, Kira’s focus is on translating consumer needs into viable retail solutions, bridging both in-store and online capabilities.
She brings a unique blend of passion for retail with over nine years of experience in category and product management. She holds a Bachelor’s degree in Retail Management and an International MBA. Audrey Carr As Vice President, Strategy, Audrey guides Nurun’s cross-functional teams in identifying, framing and solving customer-centric opportunities across
our omni- channel retail clients, including Sears Canada,The Home Depot Canada, Acklands- Grainger and the LCBO. She also leads the development and evolution of Nurun Toronto’s strategic capabilities in design research, design & retail strategy, analytics and interaction design.
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