1) Pakistan developed nuclear weapons in response to India's nuclear tests in 1998, conducting its own tests shortly after. 2) Since then, Pakistan's nuclear doctrine and posture has focused on deterring India, evolving from minimum credible deterrence to full spectrum deterrence. 3) Pakistan maintains ambiguity around details of its nuclear program like force goals and technology, which are subject to change based on increasing Indian capabilities.

1. Nuclear Proliferation
Historical Review
Mohammad Irfan Ali
PhD, IR
Roll # 2

26. Only winning move is not to play

27. Nuclear Doctrine and Posture of
Pakistan.
• Twenty years ago, the government of Pakistan decided to respond
in kind to India’s nuclear tests in May 1998.
• Pakistan conducted six nuclear explosions to India’s five, after which
Pakistan’s then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif declared, “We have
settled the score.”
• Since then, Pakistan’s strategic deterrent has remained India-
centric.
• Nuclear Deterrence- the military doctrine according to which the
possibility that a country will use the nuclear weapons
it possesses in retaliation will deter an enemy from attacking
• However, the immense ambiguity surrounding Pakistan’s nuclear
weapons program makes it challenging to ascertain the exact force
goals or technological ends.
• The components of credibility and minimalism are subject to
change in response to increasing Indian force capabilities.

28. Nuclear Doctrine and Posture of
Pakistan.
• The components of credibility and minimalism are
subject to change in response to increasing Indian
force capabilities.
• For this reason, Pakistani officials have said that
“deterrence requirements remain dynamic” and that a
particular number of nuclear weapons to meet the
requirements “cannot be quantified.”
• In the last two decades, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine and
force posture evolved steadfastly from minimum
credible deterrence to credible minimum deterrence in
line with the dictates of full-spectrum deterrence (FSD)

29. Nuclear Doctrine and Posture of
Pakistan
• Nuclear Doctrine- A theoretical concept of military strategy that
promotes deterrence by guaranteeing an immediate “Massive
retaliation” to an aggressive attack against the state.
• An Un-Written Doctrine- flexible enough to change according to
situation- Doctrine Means Numbers of weapons + Thresholds
• Two Doctrines- Minimum Credible Deterrence Vs. Full Spectrum
Deterrence capability.
• Minimum Credible Deterrence – (1)To counter the economic
strangulation from North to South- punishment of a group by
cutting off commercial dealings with them.
• (2)In the case to attack on Pakistan’s Urban Heads – Lahore,
Karachi etc,
• (3)In the case of loss of considerable manpower Pakistan as
Pakistan is in 1/3 ratio of disparity in conventional means of war
while comparing with India

30. Nuclear Doctrine and Posture of
Pakistan
• India responded with Cold Start Doctrine and Limited War
doctrine.
• In response Pakistan changed its Minimum Credible
Doctrine to Full Spectrum Deterrence capability - it
reserves the option of first-use against a nuclear weapon
state; the development of tactical nuclear weapons was
intended to reaffirm this policy.
• FSD involves deterrence of all forms of aggression through
a combination of conventional and strategic forces.
• This has in turn revamped Pakistan’s conventional
warfighting doctrine, now titled “comprehensive
response.”

31. Nuclear Doctrine and Posture of
Pakistan
• How Pakistan’s Nuclear working act..?
• Two Organizations-
• National Command Authority (NCA)- The National
Command Authority is the apex Government-led
command to oversee the employment, policy
formulation, exercises, deployment, research and
development, and operational command and control
of Pakistan's nuclear arsenals
• Strategic Plan Division (SPD) - Strategic Plans Division
Force or is Pakistan's agency responsible for the
protection of its tactical and strategic nuclear weapons
stockpile and the strategic assets.

32. Nuclear Posture’s View of Pakistan
• Caught in a security dilemma Since its
inception – Security issues in Eastern and
Western Borders.
• India’s Smiling Buddah 1974.
• Concept of MAD- Mutually assured
Distruction

33. Do Pakistan have Nuclear Triad
• India achieved the status of Nuclear Triad.
• A nuclear triad is a three-pronged military force
structure that consists of land-launched nuclear
missiles, nuclear-missile-armed submarines, and
strategic aircraft with nuclear bombs and missiles.
• Second Strike Capability.
• Shaheen+ Ghouri – from Surface to surface, but don’t
have intercontinental missile.
• F16+JF17+ Miraj – From air to air but don’t have air to
surface capability
• Pakistan have Sea to Land nuclear missile system+
Submarine ballistic missile

34. International Concerns
• Tactical weapons can be shifted from one place to another
Therefore, terrorists can steal as GHQ has been attacked in
past.
• All states have nuclear weapons to protect themselves but
Pakistan protects its nuclear weapons.
• Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine has undermined international
principles regarding nuclear thresholds.
• Nuclear supplier group- based on elite nuclear powers (48
Members)who can sell and purchased nuclear technologies
not nuclear bomb.