An Introduction to Systems Thinking - a focus on Systems tools, and the system dynamics model. Causality Loops - closed loops and system diagrams

1. Notes on-
Systems Approaches to Managing Change:
Parts 1&2
Overview of systems thinking & Systems
Dynamics
A Practical Guide
Eds. – Martin Reynolds & Sue Holwell

2. Part 1&2 – Read as part of
TU811 OU Course: Systems
Tools for managing Change
Notes: James Cracknell BA
(Hons.)

3. Chapter 1
Introducing Systems
Approaches
Introduction 1.1
Five approaches
1. System Dynamics (SD) –
1950’s Jay Forrester
2. Viable Systems Model
(VSM) – 1960’s Stafford
Beer
3. Strategic Options
Development and Analysis
(SODA) – 1970’s Colin Eden
4. Soft Systems Methodology
(SSM) – 1970’s Peter
Checkland
5. Critical Systems Heuristics
(CSH) – 1070’s Werner
Ulrich

4. Nature of
Complex Systems
Three situations reported in
2009 during Easter week.
a) Hillsborough Football
disaster 20 years on
b) Somalia – the impact of
pirating
c) Orangutans – a new
population for an
endangered species

5. Key points from
each story
Hillsborough
The tragedy continues to
permeate the psyche of
English football 20 years
further on. Despite
improvements in safety in
grounds there is a continued
sense that justice was far
from being delivered. Cover
ups at every level as well as
poor leadership, dire
communication and abject
confusion persists to the day.

6. Somalian Pirates
Headlines surrounded the death and
rescue of European and US citizens in
yet another hostage situation. It was
though, the wider repercussion that
were occupying the copy with
analysis on what it means for fishing
industries of the Seychelles and
tourism along the Kenyan coast. The
costs were being counted in terms of
jobs and extended hardship. Cruise
ships were no longer stopping
meaning a loss of trade, in fact they
were avoiding the region all together.

7. Orangutans
Despite the discovery of a
new population the
species remains on the
endangered list. The
rainforests of Indonesia,
the natural habitat, are
being decimated as Palm
oil is classed as a ‘clean
burning fuel’. The eco fuel
was now being harvested
with devastating
consequences for the
species. The light was also
shone on widespread
exploitation of workers
and the politics of energy
production

8. Big, Big
Issues
- 1.2.1
Three contrasting stories – a few common
threads
• Local issues have causes and
consequences which extend the impact
• That the problems were unbounded
and paid no respect to national borders
• All stories came with multiple
perspectives often conflicting
• That the backdrop cannot be ignored –
2009 and the Global economy was
reeling from Global Banking Crisis –
poverty, global warming, and ice
melting

9. Human life
gets in the
way
No obvious answers to
any of these stories,
different people will
take opposing
perspectives, different
priorities and change,
intentional or
otherwise has
consequences that
ripple.

10. Messes and Difficulties – 1.2.2
Issues of concern
• Complex to
straightforward
• Minor hiccup to
catastrophic
Continuum between
concept of:
Difficult or a Mess
Difficult Mess
One dimensional continuum

11. Mess - Characteristics
• Many interlocking
aspects
• Involves more people
• Greater implications
related to outcomes
• Different guises
• Longer time scale
• Greater uncertainty
• Hard to articulate
• Multiple trajectories
• Question, assumptions,
and weightings
• Many perspectives all
dynamic

12. Difficult
• The answer is known
but not discovered
• Can be conceptualized
• Take for granted
context
• Articulate the solution

13. Two dimensional Mess
Difficult
Mess
Certain
Uncertain
• Indicates overall Scale
• Uncertain – means
multiple perspectives
• Difficulties can be
conceptualised

14. Why think in systems?
Simplifies the thinking around complex realities. The
means to handle the detail, bring it to the
foreground, identify different behaviours from
multiple perspectives.
Terms to describe ‘Messes’
• Swamp – Donald Schon
• Wicked problems – Horst Rittel
• Resource Dilemmas – Neils Roling
..
..

15. Perspectives on
Systems Thinking
– 1.2.6

16. No one way of
thinking about
systems
• Different typologies of
approach to analysis
• Emphasis in thinking between
man and nature
• Complexity in its very nature
• Choices of approaches
dependent upon perspective
of user, nature of event
Four perspectives under
consideration

17. Perspective 1: Three
Traditions of System
Thinking
(West Churchman,
Peter Checkland,
Werner Ulrich, Mike
Jackson & others)
Three sets:
Hard, Soft & Critical
Hard
Soft
Critical

18. Hard systems
The presumption that systems
‘actually exist’ .
Losing this assumption
facilitated new more abstract
constructs

19. Soft Systems
Moving away from the
concept of ‘hard systems’ –
to ‘soft systems’ as the
means to transfer and
impart knowledge. “Epistemological Constructs rather than real
World entities” (p10)
Definition of epistemological – scientific study
of knowledge, its acquisition and
communication’

20. Critical
systems
To address some of the
inadequate aspects of Hard
and Soft by considering the
‘power relations’ – wider
enforced changes on society

21. Gerald Midgley – The evolution of
systems thinking & practice –
Three ‘Waves’ or phases of inquiry
Wave Description
Wave one A focus on ‘concrete’ issues with common
purpose
Wave two Soft focus – people, their perspectives, wants an
needs
Wave three Emphasis on ‘power relations’ the reengineering
of social morals, actions and attitudes that shape
the context
As a systems thinking practioner what value would I gain from thinking
of systems like this?
The focus of the three-part model is about the situation, its relevance to
this analysis.

22. Hard & soft carry with it gender
specific overtones. Overcome by
a change in terminology to
‘Functionalist, Interpretivist,
Emancipatory’.
Thinking in silos makes it harder
to identify any synergies or cross
over between the three models
Issues related
to the three-
part model

23. Perspective 2: Systems Thinking
for Situations – 1.2.6.2
Systems of system
methodologies
(SOSM)
To classify system
approaches
aligned to a
specific problem
situation (Jackson,
1990)

24. Dimensions of matrix
Complexity - of the situation,
its interrelatedness and
interdependencies.
Participants – Perspectives
Unitary – Hard – Machine
Pluralist – Soft – Organism
Coercive – Critical - Prison

25. Matrix
Participants
‘Systems’
i.e. problem
situation
Unitary ‘ hard’
systems – machine
metaphor
Pluralist ‘Soft’
systems –
organismic
metaphor
Coercive ‘critical’
systems – prison
metaphor
Simple Simple unitary:
e.g. systems
engineering
Simple pluralist:
e.g. Strategic
assumption
surfacing and
testing
Simple coercive:
e.g. critical
systems
heuristics
Complex Complex unitary:
e.g. systems
dynamics, viable
systems model
Complex
pluralist:
e.g. soft systems
methodology
Complex
coercive: (non
available)
Adapted from Jackson 2000, p.359 –
Taken from Reynolds & Howe p.11

26. Total Systems Intervention (TSI)
Flood and Jackson (1991)
Drawing different
methods together in a
three-fold process
1. Creative analysis of
the situation
2. Choice of a suitable
systems approach
3. Implementation of
that approach

27. Two significant difficulties
1. Assumption that ‘all’
situations fall neatly into
one of the six available
boxes
2. Assumption that a
particular approach is
only suitable for a
specific problem
Nothing is ever this neat and
thinking like this can detract
from exploration of the
alternatives.

28. Perspective 3: Influences Around
Systems Approaches (Ison & Maiteny) –
1.2.6.3
• Synergistic thinking
• Cross fertilisation
• Innovation
• Moving away from the
rigidity of the matrix
classification
• Broaden out the way
systems thinking fits into
other domains
• Role of individual users

29. Difficulties arising
• One-way influences – that
is this perspective is
reaching out whilst others
are not necessarily
reaching in
• Casting a wider net can
mean important
practitioners are missed
off

30. Perspective 4: Grouping of System
Thinkers (Ramage & Shipp) – 1.2.6.4
• Matching individual
system thinkers to their
discipline
• Purpose of typology – to
“provide a foothold for the
readers’ engagement with
the 30 systems thinkers
covered” (Ed. Reynolds,
Howe, 2010, p14)
• Authors personal mapping

31. Seven Groupings – 30 Thinkers
Groupings Thinkers / Practioner
Early cybernetics Gregory Bateson (1904 – 1980), Norbert Wiener (1894
– 1964), Warren McCulloch (1898 – 1969)
Soft & Critical systems C. West Churchman (1913 – 2004), Russell Ackoff
(1919- ). Peter Checkland (1930 -), Werner Ulrich
(1948-), Michael C. Jackson (1951-)
Complex Theory Ilya Prigogine (1917 – 2003), Stuart Kauffman (1939 -),
James lovelock (1919 -)
General systems theory Ludwig von Bertalanffy (1901 – 72), Kenneth Boulding
(1910 – 1993), Geoffrey Vickers (1894 – 1983)
Later cybernetics Heinz von Foerster (1911 – 2002), Stafford Beer (1926 –
2002), Humberto Maturana (1928 -), Niklas Luhmann
(1927 – 1998), Paul Watziawick (1921 – 2007)
Learning systems Kurt Lewin (1890 – 1947), Eric Trist (1911 – 1993), Chris
Argyris (1923 -), Donald Schon (1930 – 1997), Mary
Catherine Bateson (1939 -)
System dynamics Jay Forrester (1918 -), Donella Meadows (1941 – 2001),
Peter Senge (1947 -)

32. Controversy and Paradox
• It is not representative of a
comprehensive collection
of groupings and thinkers
• It is a starting point for first
arrivals
• Groupings are contentious
within the field
• Paradox – by creating this
type of typography –
interdisciplinary links are
broken thereby stepping
outside the systems
thinking mindset

33. Our Own Perspective 1.2.7
Attained goal – to understand how:
• Different system approaches
relate to each other
• The various schools of thought
• They can be used in practice by
relating to specific situations
The Five Systems – (slide 2) have
been chosen because of they
address:
• Rich interplay between ‘situation’,
‘practioner community’ and
‘methodology’
• Connection to the three
motivations for using a systems
approach, namely –
‘interrelationships, different
perspectives and power relations

34. Five
approaches to
strategy
making – 1.2.9
Systems dynamics (SD)
1.2.9.1

35. Five
approaches to
strategy
making – 1.2.9
Viable System model
(VSM) 1.2.9.2

36. Five
approaches to
strategy
making – 1.2.9
Strategic options
Development and
Analysis (SODA, with
Cognitive Mapping)
1.2.9.3

37. Five
approaches to
strategy
making – 1.2.9
Soft Systems
Methodology (SSM)
1.2.9.4

38. Five
approaches to
strategy
making – 1.2.9
Critical Systems
Heuristic (CSH) 1.2.9.5

39. Chapter 2 – Systems Dynamics
To create a representation
of a real world situation
often complex in nature.
A systems approach to the
management of change.
Uses diagrams as the
means of communicating
the present situation, the
interconnections, causes
and outcomes as well as
unplanned for secondary
effects. Business thinking
meets social thinking
Feedback leads to dynamic
behaviours

40. Ways of Interpreting Situations in
Business and Society
Changing Perspectives – 2.1.1
From above we see the
whole picture and gain
on perspective.
At street or road level we
get another. Both are as
valid, both provide
information and both
offer contrasting
perspectives.
“What appears to be
chance, may, from a
different perspective,
have a systemic cause”
p26

41. Event Orientated Thinking
Events create problems
Solutions fix problems
Congestion leads to the
building of more roads
Unruly binge drinking leads to
a need for more police
Drug crime leads to more
police taking drugs off the
street
“The problem presents itself
as a discrepancy between an
important shared goal and a
capricious current situation”
P26

42. Feedback Systems Thinking 2.1.3
Solutions are not isolated
from their environment or
context – the are
‘sympathetic’
Problems and solution
coexist and are
interdependent
5th Discipline – Peter Senge –
5 disciplines for effective
organisational change

43. Illustration of Feedback Systems
Thinking 2.1.4
• Fig 2.3
A representation of
the complexity of
traffic congestion
and the unintended
consequences of
certain actions.
The position of
boundaries is very
dependent upon
the perspective and
a matter of
judgement

44. A Shift of
Mind –
2.1.5
Fig 2.4 Feedback perspective
• People involved in strategy
development will hold counter
views which will lead to
conflicting and partial
perspectives.
• Advantages of thinking in
feedback loops is an
appreciation of where the goal
or desired future state, and
existing state create the
discrepancy
• Nothing is considered as a
one-size fits all solution and
actions will create extended
situations
• “The performance of the
enterprise as a whole arises
from the interplay of these
interlocking feedback
processes,”

45. Discussion
and
Thoughts
Linear thinking is often seen in business
and government, in decision that are
made and not looking at the extended
ramifications of those decisions. This
leads to the conclusion that many of the
problems that we have now are a
consequence of linear thinking.
The introduction of the feedback loops
emphasises the complexity and ripple
effects that decisions, that are made in
good faith and for the right reasons, may
become the problems of the future.

46. Causal Loop Diagram
Concepts & Tools 2.1
John Moorcroft

47. Rules and approaches
• Cause and effects alongside the
means for feedback. The diagram is a
tool to visualise these relationships
• Constructed using a mix of words,
phrases, links and loops.
• Conventions to be noted – the ‘+’
means - If the cause increases then the
effect increases too relative to what it
would otherwise have been
- The ‘-’ means that if the cause
increases then the effect decreases
relative to what it would otherwise
have been

48. The central element
R Reinforcing loop – amplifies and
reinforces change
B Balancing loop – a change in a
variable leads to a counteracting
change
Naming conventions – identify
each loop as a way of creating
a narrative
DELAY
Delays – the identification of a
time lag between a cause and
effect (the variables)

49. Slow to respond shower:
Narrative, Causal Links & Polarity 2.2.1.1

50. Process in a Shower ‘System’ –
2.2.1.1
• The causal feedback loop provides a lot of
qualified information in a combined space.
• The detail useful in construction of
‘algebraic simulation’ : (goal – actual)
• Be aware of what links actually mean in
real world; behavioural responses in respect
of economic, social and physical laws
• Quantitative aspects – how much does
temperature rise for a given increase in water
flow?
• Temperature gap to ‘flow of hot water’
the most important link as embodies
decision making process
• What is the corrective action required? –
Overreaction and iteration leads to flux
• People have the control – how they
choose to adjust the tap setting
• Our own decision making processes
Sensing the gap – stand under a
shower in scuba gear and you have
no sense of the gap – feedback loop
collapses

51. Simulation of a Shower and Dynamics of
Balancing Loops – 2.2.1.3

52. Dynamics of
balancing
loop
• Balancing loops crop up
everywhere
• Goals set by human,
social and biological
needs
• Business sets sales goals,
quality standards etc.
• Government’s – inflation,
money supply, Growth
and health
• Humans – temperature,
blood flow, digestive
goals
• Balancing processes far
from perfect so corrective
action can lead to over
and undershooting

53. From Events
to Dynamics
and Feedback
Structure:
Drug Related
Crime
• 2.2.2 P38

54. Puzzling Dynamics
Key points of problem
• Community witnessing
‘apparent’ rise in drug fueled
crime
• Anecdotal evidence suggests
police action getting results
• Goal of system is tolerable
situation – reported growth
based off estimated information
• We know there is reinforcing
feedback at work because we
see ‘growth’
• Malignant feedback entwinned
with police, communities and
drug users that crosses
boundaries

55. Feedback
Loops in drug
related crime
2.2.2.1
• Consider the basic
vocabulary – hypothesised
reasons for crime to rise.
• Indicate the boundary of
the problem
• All factors lead to a closed
loop of cause and effect –
a crime spiral
• Two negative links – so
loop is reinforcing
Central variable
in question &
starting place
for story
Community
responsePolice action –
inside the force
The world of the drug
user – addicts not
driven by price.
Increase in price adds
to crime

56. Scope and
Boundary of
Factors in drug
Related Crime
2.2.2.2
• Loop is not the only
one
• Try knew loops
• Challenge
conventional thinking
• Keep loops simple
• Focus on observable
problems
• Qualitative feedback
• Always ask what else

57. An Aside:
More Practice
with link
Polarity and
Loop types
2.2.2.3
• Any individual link
connects two concepts
(A&B) – ‘A’ is the cause
and ‘B’ the effect
• For each link we imagine
‘all other influences are
held constant’ (ceteris
paribus)

58. Purpose and Use of Causal Loop
Diagrams: A Summary
2.2.2.4
Creates overview
Discloses
interconnections
Visual summation
Uncovers Mental
Models
Displays dynamic
behaviours
Expands thinking
Extrapolation of the
future based on existing
or new behaviours
Feedback on ‘observed
performance’ recorded
and highlighted

59. Basic Tips: Picking
and Naming
Variables
2.2.2.5
Words are vital
• Variables must be ‘Nouns’
• Augment nouns to target or
clarify variable
• Think in terms of being able to
measure
• Ground words in facts
• Concepts can be ‘hard’ – easily
measurable – ‘new products’
‘new hires’
• Concepts can be ‘soft’ –
intangible such as moral,
isolation, perceptions
• Always have in mind a means
to measure or quantify (score)
even intangible
• Pick phrases “delivery lead
time” rather than the less clear
‘delivery performance’

60. Basic Tips:
Meaning of
Arrows and Link
Polarity
2.2.2.6
Arrows are visual
drivers
• Change in cause leads
to change in effect
• Polarity works for
both tangible as well
as intangible
• The effect on the
variable is to change
it ‘more than it would
otherwise have been’
Marketing
budget
Impact on
sales +
Industry
reputation
Customer’s
interested +
Not as clear as a
‘Causal Loop’

61. Basic Tips: Drawing,
Identifying and
Naming Feedback
Loops
2.2.2.7
• Feedback loops for the
system thinker are the
equivalent of a political
cartoon for the
cartoonist.
• A series of feedback
loops on a whiteboard
can identify the primary
characteristic of an
organization
• The message is given
added weight because it
focuses on the dominant
features

62. Basic Tips: Drawing,
Identifying and
Naming Feedback
Loops
2.2.2.7
5 Tips for visual layout
• Use curved lines
• Important loops are
circular
• Organise diagram to
minimise cross-over of
lines
• Avoid ‘Chart Junk’ – any
added to aspect that only
serves to clutter and
distract
• Iterate – get ready to start
and refine
• Label clearly following
conventions of polarity

63. Excerpts from ‘Orchestra
in a Complex World’
(Bernhard Kerres)
2.2.6
A 3 year study and consultation to develop a
strategic agenda for growth
• Five major indicators of success
1. Delivery of high-quality
performances to attract, retain
top musicians and conductors
2. Create challenging and
interesting programs appealing
to audiences old and new
3. Attract top managers and staff,
engage and motivate volunteers
4. Raise and sustain visibility
through media. Produce
recordings, get broadcast and
extract favourable reviews
5. Continue to develop a successful
school’s outreach programme,
engage with local communities
so as to raise appreciation for
music
A qualitative approach to
understanding success from
a multi-dimensional
perspective

64. Success of Performances and Quality of
Orchestra
2.2.6.1
Fig 2.32

65. Questions to consider about Fig
2.32
What are our measures of
success?
• Artistic success
• Financial success
Quantifiable means of gauging
artistic:
• Quality of performance
(reviews)
• Challenges of programme
(musicians & audience)
Quantifiable means of gauging
financial:
• Sell tickets
• Attract sponsorship
Combined long term measures
• Season ticket uptake and
general growth in audience
base

66. What is missing and what is
needed from Fig 2.32?
• Adequate explanation
of the role ‘Media’ plays
in success
Represented by the
‘dotted line and ?’
• No reinforcing loops to
success – once these
have been identified the
engines of growth can be
articulated

67. The
Importance
of Brand
2.2.6.2
Brand – the image it
generates in people’s minds
linking the values with the
qualities of the organisation
to its audience.
First feedback loop (R1) – Brand Growth
Engine
• The existence of the loop does not
mean that it is always a virtuous
circle can be ‘vicious’ under adverse
circumstances
• Media now has a more clear role in
success

68. Attracting
Musicians
2.2.6.3
An orchestra needs
musicians
R2 Best Musicians
Musicians consider
• Brand
• Soloists
• Conductors

69. Success with
Fundraising
2.2.6.4
An orchestra needs access to
state funding. To achieve this it
needs:
• A strong brand
• To attract right supporters
• To engage and motivate
volunteers
• Fundraising acumen – often
teams of experienced
people
• Corporate involvement
It is a defined pot that all arts
are targeting.
• Private donors
• Allegiances and loyalties
• Geographic know-how very
different

70. Conclusion from
Orchestra Study
2.2.6.5
A diagram like this is a ‘map’ from
which the main features and their
potential interconnectedness can be
determined.
It takes ‘iteration’ and often done in a
social learning environment. The whole
team therefore needs to recognise and
agree with the ‘descriptive overview’
of the current situation.
Stakeholder’s perceptions are
therefore vital to gain a fuller picture.
Use of a trained facilitator is therefore
vital to the chances of success

71. End of Part 1 and
Part 2
Notes by James
Cracknell BA (Hons.)
As part of TU811 OU
Course Systems
Tools for Managing
Change
Reynolds, M. and Holwell, S. (2010) Introducing Systems Approaches, in
Martin Reynolds, Sue Holwell (Eds.) Approaches to managing Change: A
Practical Guide. London: Springer in association with The Open University