New car sales in the Republic of Ireland increased by 25% year-over-year in February 2015, twice the growth rate of the UK and 10 times the rate of Northern Ireland. While 2015 is still expected to see a fourth consecutive rise in new car sales in Northern Ireland, registrations there are almost 2% lower than the first two months of 2014. Overall new car sales volumes in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland remain well below peak 2007 levels, at 17% and 43% lower, respectively.

1. Slide 1
RoI new car sales increased by 25% y/y in Feb-15. This was
twice the growth rate in the UK & 10 times the rate for N.Ireland
New Car Registrations Annual % Change
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Feb-07 Jun-08 Oct-09 Feb-11 Jun-12 Oct-13 Feb-15
Y/Y NI UK RoI
Source: SMMT & SIMI
UK car scrappage
scheme started
18 May 2009

2. Slide 2
Divergence between NI & UK new car sales performance
New Car Registrations
3 months / Year
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
Y/Y
NI UK
Source: SMMT

3. Slide 3
2015 is still expected to see a 4th
successive rise in new car sales
Northern Ireland New Car Sales
Annual
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Source: SMMT, * 12 months to February 2015

4. Slide 4
Despite the fact that new car sales are almost 2% lower during
the first two months of 2015 relative to the same period in 2014
N.Ireland New Car Registrations Annual % Growth
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Y/Y
VAT cut to 15% &
'Cash for Clunkers'
Source: SMMT, *Figures for January & February only

5. Slide 5
Petrol prices are well down relative to a year ago but have
been ticking up in recent weeks
UK Fuel Prices - Pence per litre
(Weekly)
109.2p
Mar-15
106.3p
Feb-15
131.1p
Jul-14
129.7p
141.8p
Apr-12
85.4p
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Mar-04 Jan-06 Nov-07 Sep-09 Jul-11 May-13 Mar-15
Pence per litre
Source: DECC

6. Slide 6
Falling food, energy and petrol prices will boost disposable
incomes and support consumer spending
UK Consumer Price Inflation
Y/Y % Change
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-14 Feb-
14
Mar-
14
Apr-14 May-
14
Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-
14
Jan-15
% Y/Y
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages Electricity Gas & Other Fuels Transport Fuels & Lubricants
Source: ONSAnnual Monthly

7. Slide 7
With wage growth finally rising at a faster rate than inflation
UK Average Weekly Earnings* & CPI Inflation
Annual % Change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-02 Mar-04 May-06 Jul-08 Sep-10 Nov-12 Jan-15
%
Average Weekly Earnings CPI Inflation MPC Target
Income
squeeze'NICE'
Decade
Source: ONS * Excluding bonuses

8. Slide 8
Over the last 12 months to Feb-2015 there were 11,700 fewer
new car sales than in 2007
11,706 fewer N.Ireland new car sales relative to 2007 peak
12 Month Rolling Sum
57,170
47,580
57,002
68,708
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
Sales now
17% below
peak
Source: SMMT
Temporary reduction in VAT
rate to 15% & 'Cash for
Clunkers'

9. Slide 9
The RoI continues to record the fastest rates of growth but
this is coming off very low levels
NI v UK v RoI New Car Sales
3 months / YY% Change
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15
Y/Y
NI UK RoI
Source: SMMT & SIMI

10. Slide 10
Volume of new car sales in RoI and NI is still 43% and 17%
respectively below 2007 levels
New Car Registrations
12 month Rolling Sum Indexed 2007 =100
-17%
+4%
-43%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-08 Jun-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Sep-13 Feb-15
Index
NI UK RoI Pre-Recession Peak
Source: SMMT & SIMI

11. Slide 11
England, Scotland & Wales have higher new car sales
volumes now than they did before the recession
New Car Registrations
Indexed 2007 =100
-17%
+11%
+4%
-43%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-08 Jun-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Sep-13 Feb-15
Index
NI Scotland Wales UK RoI Pre-Recession Peak
Source: SMMT & SIMI

12. Slide 12
The Republic of Ireland market witnessed the steepest decline
and strongest recovery but still way below 2007 levels
New Car Registrations February 2015
12 Months relative to 2007 Levels
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Peak-to-Trough Decline Recovery From Trough Net Position
NI England Scotland Wales UK RoI
Source: SMMT & SIMI

13. Slide 13
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