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Quarter 3 Motor Industry Review Presentation
- 1. WELCOME SIMI Q3 Motor Industry Review In association with DoneDeal
- 2. Q3 Review Alan Nolan Director General SIMI
- 3. SIMI DoneDeal 3rd Quarter Motor Industry Review • Author Jim Power • Sponsored by Done Deal • Snapshot of 1st 9 Months of 2015
- 4. SIMI DoneDeal 3rd Quarter Motor Industry Review Business Significantly up • New Car Registrations +30% • New LCV Registrations +48% • New HGV Registrations +25% • Used Car Sales +17% • Used Import Sales +9% Government Revenue Significantly Up (9 Mths) • €903 Million in VRT & VAT from Car Sales • €4.1 Billion Total Revenues from Motor Industry
- 5. SIMI DoneDeal 3rd Quarter Motor Industry Review • New 2 Period Registration System: – Aim to create a second Peak – Spread registrations better in two halves of year – Opportunity for 2nd Start if Bad January • Has Exceeded Expectations: – 17% of New Car Registrations in 2nd half of 2012 – 30% of New Car Registrations in 2nd half of 2014
- 6. Monthly Car Registrations 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 2014
- 14. SIMI Members Survey • Avg Number of Staff = 18 • Avg Increase in Staff = 1.5 (8%) • Avg Apprentices Employed = 1.4 • Avg Apprentices taken-on 2014 = .6 • Avg Apprentices in next 6Mths = .5
- 15. Motor Industry Employment • 41,000 now Employed in 400 Towns • 4,200 New Jobs in past year (350 Per Month!) • Outlook further 1,500 in 2015 • Apprentices Currently Employed 1,623 • Strong Demand in 2015 for young employees – Apprenticeship etc.
- 16. Introducing: • Sponsors Done Deal – Cathal Cremen • Author of Report – Jim Power
- 17. Q3 Review Jim Power Report Author Jim Power Economics
- 18. Economic & Motor Industry Update Q3 2014 Jim Power October 21st 2014
- 19. KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN ECONOMY 2014 International environment better – but Euro Zone a key concern Significant growth in H1 GDP +5.8% Retail Sales Volume +6.9% Value +4.8% (Jan-Aug) Retail Sales (ex-cars) Volume +3.5% Value +1.6% (Jan-Aug) New Car Registrations +30% (Jan-Sep) Merchandise Exports (Jan-Aug) +0.5% Food +8.5% Chemicals -0.4% (Patent Issue) Manufacturing Output (Jan-Jul) +18.5% Tourism Strong - Overseas Visitors (Jan-Jul) +11.1%
- 20. KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN 2014 (CTD) Live Register 374,800 Unemployment 11.1% -59,800 (2012-2014) Employment Q2 2014 +31,600 (YoY) Exchequer finances improving – tax revenues buoyant Credit conditions still challenging Housing market improving strongly Consumer confidence stronger Successful exit from Troika Economic recovery gathering momentum
- 21. H1 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY % YoY GDP +5.8% GNP +6.1% Consumption +1.2% Gov. Expenditure +5.2% Investment +11.3% Exports Goods & Services +10.2% Imports Goods & Services +8.9%
- 22. GROWTH IN CONSUMER EXPENDITURE
- 23. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Jan-83 Oct-83 Jul-84 Apr-85 Jan-86 Oct-86 Jul-87 Apr-88 Jan-89 Oct-89 Jul-90 Apr-91 Jan-92 Oct-92 Jul-93 Apr-94 Jan-95 Oct-95 Jul-96 Apr-97 Jan-98 Oct-98 Jul-99 Apr-00 Jan-01 Oct-01 Jul-02 Apr-03 Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 %
- 24. EMPLOYMENT (S/A) 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 (000s)
- 25. BACKGROUND TO BUDGET • IMF downgrading global growth – particularly Euro Zone • Compelling evidence of domestic economic recovery • Fiscal targets over-achieved, but still borrowing too much • 10-year bond sales €1 bln @1.63% October 2014 • No requirement for €2 bln adjustment • Political pressures to change course
- 26. ECONOMIC FORECASTS UNDERLYING BUDGET 2015 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f GDP 0.2% 4.7% 3.9% 3.4% GNP 3.2% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1% Consumption -0.8% 1.7% 2.7% 1.4% Government 1.4% 4.8% 2.3% 0.0% Investment -2.4% 14.6% 12.7% 7.6% Exports 1.1% 8.3% 4.8% 4.3% Imports 0.6% 8.8% 5.3% 3.6% Domestic Demand -0.7% 3.6% 3.6% 1.9% Inflation (HICP) 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% Employment 2.4% 1.8% 2.4% 1.9% Unemployme 13.1% 11.4% 10.2% 9.4% nt
- 27. KEY ECONOMIC RISKS/CHALLENGES • Euro Zone Economic Outlook • Sovereign debt levels still too high • Personal & SME debt overhang • Housing market imbalances • Political developments • But Economy in a much better place • Budget 2015 will give welcome stimulus • Could not have imagined this 2 years ago!
- 28. THE MOTOR INDUSTRY Q3 2014 • New private cars registered +48.6% • Light Commercial Vehicles +76.7% • Heavy Commercial Vehicles -7.9%% • Every county reported good growth in new car registrations • Imported Cars -1.5% (32.2% of Total Cars Licensed) • CO2 Emissions continue to fall • SIMI member confidence survey positive • Costs of motoring : Year to September: Petrol -3.9%, Diesel -4.6%, Insurance +6.7%, Average New Car price -2.8% • Making stronger contribution to Exchequer • Q1-Q3 2014 New Private Cars registered +29.8%
- 29. EMPLOYMENT IN THE MOTOR TRADE 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (ooos)
- 30. CARS REGISTRATIONS 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 NEW CARS (%) IMPORTED CARS (%)
- 31. NEW CAR REGISTRATION AVERAGE CO2 EMISSIONS 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Q1-Q3)
- 32. MONTHLY REGISTRATIONS 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 2014
- 33. EXCHEQUER REVENUES FROM MOTOR INDUSTRY Q1-Q3 2014 NEW CAR REGISTRATIONS (€mln) % GROWTH VRT 413 +21.9% VAT 360 +33.2% Total 773 +31% USED CAR REGISTRATIONS (€ mln) % GROWTH VRT 114 +12.5% VAT 16 +10.9% Total 130 +12.3% GRAND TOTAL 903 +27.9%
- 34. ECONOMIC IMPACT & POTENTIAL OF INDUSTRY • Contributed €903 mln to Exchequer Q1-Q3 2014 (€1.8 billion in 2007) • Tax take from fuel €2.3 billion (Jan-Aug) • Every 10,000 extra new cars +€82 million to Exchequer • Q2 2014: 41,000 employed in industry • 130 new jobs for every 1,000 extra cars sold • 120,000 possible in 2015 • Making increasingly stronger contribution to national and local economies
- 35. AUTO MARKET IN 2015 • 95,000 likely for 2014 • 120,000 possible in 2015 • Consumer confidence • Credit availability • Limited fiscal easing • €1 bln + contribution to Exchequer • Budget did no damage & will provide some support
- 36. DONEDEAL ADVERTISING MARKET VOLUME 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 CARS MOTOR-EXCL. CARS
- 37. VALUE OF ADVERTISING MARKET DONEDEAL 0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 350,000,000 400,000,000 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Cars MOTOR EX-CARS
- 38. THANK YOU
- 39. Q3 Review Cathal Cremen Commercial Manager DoneDeal
- 40. DoneDeal – The Marketplace In the Year to Q3 – 2014 Motor Ads - 9.7% increase (Total ads ) Car Ads – 11.3% increase (Total Ads) Dealer Car Ads – 27.5% increase Private Car Ads – 3.8% increase 800+ Dealers Advertising on DoneDeal
- 41. DoneDeal – “Traffic” Motor Section (Q1 – Q3 2014) Visits – 101 Million (2013 – 65 Million) Page Views – 1.27 Billion (2013 – 1.08 Billion)
- 42. DoneDeal – Advertised Value €3.05 Billion (Value of goods advertised on DoneDeal Motor (Q1-Q3 2014)