2nd February 2015 SIMI Press Conference launched the final SIMI Quarterly Motor Industry Review in association with DoneDeal, revealing the full year results for 2014 and the outlook for 2015.
4. SIMI DoneDeal
2014 Motor Industry Perspective
• New car sales up 30%
• Light Commercial vehicles up 51%
• Employment up 10% (41,600)
• €1Billion in taxes from car sales
• Over 5 Billion taxes collected by Industry
• Cost of motoring down on 2013
• Consumer confidence up
5. Motor Industry Outlook 2015
• New Car Sales up 31% in January
• LCVs up 70%, HGVs down 37%
• Busses up 32%, Motorcycles up 8%
• Industry projection for year 115,000
• Ageing Car Parc:
– 40% 5-10yrs
– 33% over 10yrs
• 689,258 cars failed NCT in 2014
– 36% of cars on the roads failed!
• Need to maintain vehicles
9. The Global Background
• US economy doing well
• UK economy doing well
• Euro Zone struggling ~ recession or ‘euro-sclerosis’?
• Euro Zone bank stress test a hurdle cleared in 2014
• Quantitative easing in EZ strong, but impact likely to be
limited – move away from fiscal austerity?
• Greek uncertainties
• Limited pressure on US & UK interest rates later in 2015 –
no pressure whatsoever on ECB
• Key issues – Sovereign Debt, Unemployment &
Deflationary Forces in Euro Zone
10. Key Developments in Irish Economy in 2014
• Strong growth in first 3/4of year GDP +4.9%
• Retail Sales Volume +6.3%: Value +4.1%
• Ex-Cars Value +1.6%: Volume +3.7% #Car Sales +29.5%
• Merchandise exports +1.2% (Jan-Nov)
• Employment +27,700 +1.5% (Year to end-Sept)
• Public finances improving – still borrowing too much
• Credit conditions still tight – demand & supply issues
• Construction activity rebounding strongly
• Strong tourism performance +8.6% Overseas Visitors
16. Key Economic Risks/Challenges
• Euro Zone fragility
• Government debt levels high – no room for fiscal heroics
• Personal & SME debt overhang
• Housing market imbalances in Dublin
• Restoring a functioning banking sector – progress being
made
• Personal sector still pressurised – property tax revaluation
in 2016?
• Pressure for wage increases
• Political developments ~ stability/poor economic policies?
17. The Motor Industry in 2014
• New private cars registered +29.5%
• Light Commercial Vehicles +51.3%
• Heavy Goods Vehicles +14.9%
• Every county reported good growth in new car
registrations
• Costs of motoring : Year to December: Petrol -7.5%,
Diesel -9.6%, Insurance +11.6%, New Car price -2.4%
• Petrol -16.5% from peak: Diesel -16.8% from peak
• Making stronger contribution to Exchequer €965 m
+26.6%
20. EXCHEQUER REVENUES FROM MOTOR INDUSTRY2014
NEW CAR
REGISTRATIONS
(€mln) % GROWTH
VRT 427 +28.9%
VAT 372 +32.8%
Total 799 +30.7%
USED CAR
REGISTRATIONS
(€ mln) % GROWTH
VRT 146 +10.3%
VAT 20 +7.3%
Total 166 +9.9%
GRAND TOTAL 965 +26.6%
24. Key Drivers of New Car Market
• Personal Consumption
• Interest Rates
• Unemployment
• Population >15 Years
• Car Sales in Previous Years
• One-off events e.g.: Car Scrappage
Scheme, Y2000 etc
25. Economic Impact & Potential of Industry
• Contributed €965 mln to Exchequer 2014 (€1.8 billion in
2007)
• Every 10,000 extra new cars +€82 million to Exchequer
• Q3 2014: 41,600 employed in industry
• 130 new jobs for every 1,000 extra cars sold
• Making increasingly stronger contribution to national and
local economies
• 120,000 in 2015? If achieved:
• Industry could add 3,000 new jobs
• 2015 Industry could contribute extra €188 m in VAT & VRT
27. Auto Market in 2015 & 2016
• Jan ‘15 29,948 +31%
• 118,000/120,000 possible in 2015
• Consumer confidence strong
• Credit availability good
• Interest rates to remain very low
• Labour market improving
• Stronger consumer spending
• Limited fiscal easing in Budget 2015
• 130,000 in 2016?
• Fragility of consumer spending & working capital key
challenges
33. 2014 - DoneDeal.ie/Motors (Mobile)
IOS downloads - 201,000
Android downloads - 240,000
Total App downloads - 1.3 million
Over 32% of all ads were placed via mobile.
