Talk given as part of the cultural program of Banco de la República in Cali and Medellín, Colombia on 17 and 18 July. The talk includes three approaches to tackle the challenge of tropical deforestation for the next 100 years.

1. Nexos desarrollo - cultivos ilícitos y tres propuestas
para el próximo siguiente siglo
Liliana M. Dávalos
Banco de la República
17 y 18 Julio 2017
!

2. What we do in the lab
The Dávalos Lab

3. A double mission
Biological
diversity
Evolution Extinctionincrease decrease

4. Come to ColEvol! 17 August 2017
Biological
diversity
Evolution Extinctionincrease decrease

5. Focus on deforestation A recent headline
Biological
diversity
Evolution Habitat lossincrease decrease

6. Coca = deforestation Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech.

7. Fight coca, fight
deforestation…
Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech.

8. Analyzing social factors
Sánchez Cuervo & Aide 2013
Ecosystems Armenteras et al. 2013
Reg. Environ. Change
Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech.

9. The chicken or the egg Dávalos 2016 Int. J. Drug Policy

10. Answers require a
change in perspective
The egg came first!

11. Brazil
Bolivia
Coca cultivation
High
Low
2014
Percent forest
High
Low
Probability of coc
b c
Changing my own
perspective
Dávalos et al. 2016 Bioscience

12. A pattern emerges
• Sources are often
dissertations
• Each focuses primarily
on one area
• Most sources written by
students in German
universities
• At first, I had no
access…

13. So I waited Wesche 1968 U. of Florida

14. Similarities
• Schuurman 1978
Tijdschr. Econ. Soc. Ge.
Coca cultivation
High
Low
2014
Percent forest
High
Low
Probability of coca
b c

15. More similarities
• Brücher 1977 Geogr. Z.
Coca cultivation
High
Low
2014
Percent forest
High
Low
Probability of coca
b c

16. Brazil
Bolivia
Peru
Colombia
Ecuador
Coca cultivation
Government-sponsored
before 1979
1990/1992
Projects
Coca cultivation
High
Low
2014
Percent forest P
a b
A remarkable spatial
pattern
Dávalos et al. 2016 Bioscience

17. A spatial relationship Dávalos et al. 2016 Bioscience
Brazil
Bolivia
Peru
Colombia
Ecuador
Coca cultivation
Government-sponsored
before 1979
1990/1992
Projects
Coca cultivation
High
Low
2014
Percent forest
High
Low
Probability of coca
a b c

18. The Amazonian frontier Denevan 1966 Geogr. Rev.

19. Charter and declaration
of Punta del Este
INCORA 1974 IICA
Presidents of America 1967 Punta del Este
Declaration

20. This is the past
Etter et al. 2006 J. Environ. Manage.

21. Brazil
Bolivia
Peru
Colombia
Ecuador
Coca cultivation
Government-sponsored
before 1979
1990/1992
Projects
Coca cultivation
High
Low
2014
Percent forest P
a b
This is the present: Projects
& roads ~ carbon emissions
Global Forest Watch Climate 2017

22. The present No longer remote

23. This is the future (in part) Nepstad et al. 2008 Philos.
Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci.

24. This is the future (in part) Ray et al. 2015 Mongabay

25. What happens when the
frontier closes?
1869

26. Frontier closes, forest
vanishes
Stanton 2014 Biol. Cons.

27. The forest has too
much value!
• To the people who live there
now
• Not everyone wants the
roads
• Some want roads but not
destruction
• Aesthetic
• This should not be
underestimated
• In biodiversity of today and
future use
• As carbon storage

28. One reason why we
need the forest
MIDAS Project, Swansea University

29. First proposal:
protect NOW
• We must protect the forests
• NOW
• The forest frontier will
close
• But need for storage is
imminent
• Price of carbon storage
will rise
• How?
• Ley 2
• Protected areas
• Collective titles

30. Ley 2 1959
• Covers virtually all forests of
the country
• Subtractions include
• Colonization projects
• Land titling programs
(spontaneous colonization)
Armenteras et al. 2017 Ecol. Appl.

31. 1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
3035404550
Forest
NP
1500
2000
2500
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
28 30 32 34 36 38 40
Pasture
150
200
250
300
350
400
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.51.01.52.02.5
Coca
550
600
650
700
●
●
●
●
●
●
PA(ha)
250
300
350
● ●
●
6
8
10
12
14
●
BA C
E FD
25
30
35
40
45
50
2001 2004 2007 2010
25
30
35
40
2001 2004 2007 2010
1
2
3
2001 2004 2007 2010
PLAND
An example from
Guaviare
Dávalos et al. 2014 Biol. Cons.
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
3035404550
NP
1500
2000
2500
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
28 30 32 34 36 38 40
150
200
250
300
350
400
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.51.01.52.02.5
500
550
600
650
700
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
3035404550
PA(ha)
150
200
250
300
350
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
28 30 32 34 36 38 40
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
0.51.01.52.02.5
100
110
●
●
●
N(m)
105
110
115
120
●
●
400
500
600
●
●
●
●
●
●
G
E FD
H I

32. Protected areas Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech.
Armenteras et al. 2006 Ecol. Indic.
Sánchez-Cuervo & Aide 2013 Ecosphere

33. Collective titling
WRI 2016 Climate benefits, tenure costs

34. Key points, Protect
NOW
• Ley 2 ✘
• Protected areas
(parks) ✔
• Collective titling ✔
Dávalos et al. 2014 Biol. Cons.

35. Time to pay the bills But how?

36. Second proposal: a
market for deforestation
• Goals are to reduce
deforestation
• But deforestation rates
have risen instead
• National commitment ≠ local
commitment
• Conditions fluid
• Shifts in policy
• Demobilization
A man holding a Colombian
flag walks in Meta,
Colombia. ‘The Farc would
limit logging to two hectares
a year in the municipality,’
says the mayor of a town in
the province.
Brodzinsky 2017 The Guardian

37. Álvarez 2001 Environmentalist

38. Cap and trade EPA 2016 Our nation’s air

39. Can Colombia do it? Fontecha 2016 Mongabay
• Environmental markets already exist (water)
• Policies in place but not widely known

40. Key points, Market
for deforestation
• Development and
demobilization create access
• Access generates
deforestation
• Market can set targets for
local actors
• Municipalities
• Corporaciones
Regionales
• Private sector
• And trade can help meet
national targets

41. The inequality of
inequality
Piketty 2013 Capital in the
Twenty-first Century

42. A modest inequality
• In long run
• rforest > rproperty
• But right now
• rforest < rproperty
• Therefore forest loss

43. Third proposal: Raise
the return on forest
• Market in deforestation can
be part of this
• Conserve and get dividend
from another actor
• But need other sources of
return that don’t require
clearing
• Therefore
• All road extensions need
local forest reserves
• Develop parts of local
forests for tourism

44. Example: Mount
Rushmore
Far from everything and
completely artificial

45. I.e., parks don’t have to
be just for the intrepid
E.g., Los Nevados

46. Key points, Raise the
return on forest
• More people visiting
can mean more
protection
• More people
employed can mean
more protection
• More people
benefitting means
more protection

47. Thanks!