The document proposes three ways to make peace better than war for Colombia's forests after conflict. First, it argues forests must be protected now using Ley 2, protected areas, and collective land titling. Second, it suggests creating a market for deforestation to reduce rates by making deforestation costly for local actors. Third, it recommends raising the return on forests by developing tourism and requiring forest reserves with new road extensions to provide alternative income without clearing forests.

1. How to make peace better than war for
Colombia's forests
Liliana M. Dávalos
POST-CONFLICT SCENARIOS OF LAND USE IN COLOMBIA
1 April 2019
!

2. The frontier A general model
Fractionforest
coca beachhead
Time ->
mixed agriculture
properties
pastures!

3. The frontier in the
past
• Border between settled lands
and natural habitats (nominally
belongs to the state)
• Forest->property
• Final state = no forest
• Already happened in other
regions
• Most of Andes
• western Caquetá
• western Putumayo
• Currently unfolding in parts
of Amazonia, most of Chocó
Etter et al. 2006 J. Environ.
Manage.
Fractionforest

4. Álvarez 2001 Environmentalist

6. Holmes et al. 2018 Peace Economics,
Peace Science and Public Policy
Yes! Because the frontier will widen

7. The post-conflict frontier
Armenteras, Schneider, Dávalos 2019 Nature Ecol. & Evol.

8. Brazil
Bolivia
Peru
Colombia
Ecuador
Coca cultivation
Government-sponsored
before 1979
1990/1992
Projects
Coca cultivation
High
Low
2014
Percent forest P
a b
This is the present: carbon
emissions ~ projects + roads
Global Forest Watch Climate 2017

9. A spatial relationship Dávalos et al. 2016 Bioscience
Brazil
Bolivia
Peru
Colombia
Ecuador
Coca cultivation
Government-sponsored
before 1979
1990/1992
Projects
Coca cultivation
High
Low
2014
Percent forest
High
Low
Probability of coca
a b c
coca 2014
model using distance
to colonization

10. This is the present: carbon
emissions ~ projects + roads
Global Forest Watch Climate 2019

11. The present October 2017

12. Is this the future? Ray et al. 2015 Mongabay

13. What happens when the
frontier closes?
1869

14. Frontier closes, forest
vanishes
Stanton 2014 Biol. Cons.

15. The forest has too
much value!
• To the people who live there
now
• Not everyone wants the
roads
• Some want roads but not
destruction
• Aesthetic
• This should not be
underestimated
• In biodiversity of today and
future use
• As carbon storage

16. First proposal:
protect NOW
• We must protect the forests
• NOW
• The forest frontier will
close
• But need for carbon credit
storage is imminent
• Price of carbon storage
will rise
• How?
• Ley 2
• Protected areas
• Collective titles

17. Ley 2 1959
• Covers virtually all forests of
the country
• Subtractions include
• Colonization projects
• Land titling programs
(spontaneous colonization)
Armenteras et al. 2017 Ecol. Appl.

18. 1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
3035404550
Forest
NP
1500
2000
2500
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
28 30 32 34 36 38 40
Pasture
150
200
250
300
350
400
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.51.01.52.02.5
Coca
550
600
650
700
●
●
●
●
●
●
PA(ha)
250
300
350
● ●
●
6
8
10
12
14
●
BA C
E FD
25
30
35
40
45
50
2001 2004 2007 2010
25
30
35
40
2001 2004 2007 2010
1
2
3
2001 2004 2007 2010
PLAND
An example from
Guaviare
Dávalos et al. 2014 Biol. Cons.
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
3035404550
NP
1500
2000
2500
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
28 30 32 34 36 38 40
150
200
250
300
350
400
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.51.01.52.02.5
500
550
600
650
700
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
3035404550
PA(ha)
150
200
250
300
350
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
28 30 32 34 36 38 40
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
0.51.01.52.02.5
100
110
●
●
●
N(m)
105
110
115
120
●
●
400
500
600
●
●
●
●
●
●
G
E FD
H I

19. Protected areas
Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech.
Armenteras et al. 2006 Ecol. Indic.
Sánchez-Cuervo & Aide 2013
Ecosphere

20. Collective titling
WRI 2016 Climate benefits, tenure costs

21. Key points, Protect
NOW
• Ley 2 ✘
• Protected areas
(parks) ✔
• Collective titling ✔
Dávalos et al. 2014 Biol. Cons.

22. Second proposal: a
market for deforestation
• Goals are to reduce
deforestation
• But deforestation rates
have risen instead
• National commitment ≠ local
commitment
• Conditions fluid
• Shifts in policy
• Demobilization
A man holding a Colombian
flag walks in Meta,
Colombia. ‘The Farc would
limit logging to two hectares
a year in the municipality,’
says the mayor of a town in
the province.
Brodzinsky 2017 The Guardian

23. Cap and trade EPA 2016 Our nation’s air

24. Can this scale? It’s already happening

25. Key points, Market
for deforestation
• Development and
demobilization create access
• Access generates
deforestation
• Market can set targets for
local actors
• Municipalities
• Corporaciones
Regionales
• Private sector
• And trade can help meet
national targets

26. The inequality of
inequality
Piketty 2013 Capital in the
Twenty-first Century

27. A modest inequality
• In long run
• rforest > rproperty
• But right now
• rforest < rproperty
• Therefore forest loss

28. Third proposal: Raise
the return on forest
• Market in deforestation can
be part of this
• Conserve and get dividend
from another actor
• But need other sources of
return that don’t require
clearing
• Therefore
• All road extensions need
local forest reserves
• Develop parts of local
forests for tourism

29. Example: Mount
Rushmore
Far from everything and
completely human-made

30. I.e., parks don’t have to
be just for the intrepid
E.g., Los Nevados

31. Key points, Raise the
return on forest
• More people visiting
can mean more
protection
• More people
employed can mean
more protection
• More people
benefitting means
more protection

32. Three proposals
• Protect NOW, forest
frontier closing
• Ley 2 ✘
• Protected areas (parks) ✔
• Collective titling ✔
• Make deforestation costly
• National commitment ≠
local commitment
• Raise the return on the
forest
• Need sources of return that
don’t require clearing Brodzinsky 2017 The Guardian
A man holding a Colombian
flag walks in Meta,
Colombia. ‘The Farc would
limit logging to two hectares
a year in the municipality,’
says the mayor of a town in
the province.

33. Thanks!