The importance of models —dynamics of extinction and their drivers from the Miocene to the last 40 years (v. 2)
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Symposium on geoecology at University of Basel, 16 February 2017
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The importance of models —dynamics of extinction and their drivers from the Miocene to the last 40 years (v. 2)
- 1. The importance of models —dynamics of extinction and their drivers from the Miocene to the last 40 years Liliana M. Dávalos University of Basel 16 February 2017 !
- 2. Who am I? Biogeographer
- 4. The West Indies Dávalos,& Turvey 2012 Bones, Clones, and Biomes
- 6. Why are so many mammals extinct? Climate? Humans?
- 7. Dávalos & Russell 2012 Ecol. Evol.
- 8. Timing is everything Cooke, Dávalos et al. 2017 Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst.
- 11. What are the effects of these extinctions? Rabosky & Hurlbert 2015 Am. Nat. MacArthur & Wilson 1963 Evolution
- 12. Rojas, Warsi, Dávalos. 2016 Syst. Biol.
- 13. Data on Greater Antillean bats Valente, Etienne, Dávalos 2017 Nature Ecol. & Evol.
- 14. Equilibrium dynamics! Valente, Etienne, Dávalos 2017 Nature Ecol. & Evol. Age Ma λc μ γ λa 20 0.28 0.33 0.030 0.19 45 0.32 0.41 0.036 0.16
- 15. 0 10 20 30 40 020406080 Numberofendemicspecies 0 10 20 30 40 01020304050 Numberofendemicspecies Time (Ma)Time (Ma) BA How long to restore the species? Valente, Etienne, Dávalos 2017 Nature Ecol. & Evol.
- 16. Conclusions part I • West Indies = extinction laboratory • Human influence now clear • Longstanding equilibrium upended by recent extinctions • diversity is predictable • time to recovery long Photo by Jon Flanders
- 17. Focus second part Biological diversity Colonization, speciation Land use change increase decrease
- 18. Answering a question for the UN The Special Session of 2016
- 19. But illicit crops are everywhere Previous focus on Colombia
- 20. Why tropical deforestation? • 2 models • Immiserization • poor growers bring marginal land into production • Frontier • investors/government build roads • roads bring colonization Rudel & Roper 1997 World Dev.
- 21. Opening the frontier Denevan 1966 Geogr. Rev.
- 22. Roads and colonization projects Brücher 1977 Geogr. Z. Schuurman 1978 Tijdschr. Econ. Soc. Ge.
- 23. Brazil Bolivia Peru Colombia Ecuador Coca cultivation Government-sponsored before 1979 1990/1992 Projects Coca cultivation High Low 2014 Percent forest P a b A remarkable spatial pattern Davalos et al. 2016 Bioscience
- 24. Brazil Bolivia Peru Colombia Ecuador Coca cultivation Government-sponsored before 1979 1990/1992 Projects Coca cultivation Percent forest a b Location of projects ~ C emissions Harris et al. 2012 Science
- 25. High Low Probability of coca c ~40 years later, deforestation & coca remain clustered Parameter 2.5 Mean 97.5 Intercept -1.2671 -1.1540 -1.0410 Distance to nearest project -0.6096 -0.5613 -0.5129 Precision municipality intercept 1.116 1.4582 1.910 Precision spatial 0.243 0.5211 1.079 Davalos et al. 2016 Bioscience
- 26. Conclusions part II • Actions from 4 decades ago have large effects • Brought colonists to the Amazon • Farmers turned to coca • Landscapes transform following roads • End point often minimal forest
- 27. Thanks!
- 28. Biased survival Cooke, Dávalos et al. 2017 Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst.
- 29. Armenteras… Dávalos 2017 Ecol. Appl.